Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[Mc990]

Best weekend of the racing year is upon us... give me your most likely winner, your value play and your short price toss... good luck to all

Most likely- Bellafina

Value- Sadler's Joy

Toss- Monomoy Girl

[Redboard]

I'll have my plays in a few days, but just to get everyone revved up, here were last year’s best values:

F&M Sprint(dirt): Bar Of Gold: 66-1

Turf Sprint : Stormy Liberal: 30-1

Juvy Fillies(dirt): Caledonia Road : 17-1

Dirt Mile: Battle Of Midway: 14-1

Juvy Turf Sprint(OK it was called the Quatar Juvenile Turf Sprint stakes): DeclarationOfPeace 14-1

Turf : Talismatic : 14-1

F&M Turf : Wuheida : 11-1

Juvenile (dirt): Good Magic: 11-1

That’s eight winners that were greater than 10-1. In 2016, there was only half that — four winners cracked the 10-1 threshold. The 2016 BC was considered a chalk meet.

[RunDustyRun]

Dirt Mile -- Catalina Cruiser...would have liked to see Sadler take a shot with this horse in the Classic

[RunDustyRun]

Value -- Anonymity in the F&M sprint...beautiful filly who Mandella has brought along slowly..last race sets her up for a huge run in my eyes

Toss -- Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out and come home times are nothing special...east coast fillies look better to me

[Suff]

Dirt Mile -- Catalina Cruiser...would have liked to see Sadler take a shot with this horse in the Classic

I'm looking and I see holes.

Never gone distance.
Timeform does not have those races up Fast..
Only beat 3 home last
Battle of Midway ..eh.. not sure what he is.

I have no ML, No Jocks, NO Post.. using the pre-entries..Seeking The Soul is cross entered to the classic, but if StS goes here, I see the 1 turn mile race sets up for him. We'll know in couple hours. Lots of speed horses in the Mile.

[horses4courses]

Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out

Any specific examples of this?

[cj]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

[RunDustyRun]

Any specific examples of this?

Firing Line and Run Away off the top of my head...also think Moonshine Memories has been very up and down as well...I rate the trainer with grass horses and he is very good with young dirt horses in their first couple of starts but they will then often times tail off or get injured..he trains them very fast like baffert...just my perspective in that he has a hard time keeping them sound and moving forward as the starts add up...saying that...he also trains American Gal who is one of my favorite horses..

[RunDustyRun]

I'm looking and I see holes.

Never gone distance.
Timeform does not have those races up Fast..
Only beat 3 home last
Battle of Midway ..eh.. not sure what he is.

I have no ML, No Jocks, NO Post.. using the pre-entries..Seeking The Soul is cross entered to the classic, but if StS goes here, I see the 1 turn mile race sets up for him. We'll know in couple hours. Lots of speed horses in the Mile.

Valid points but watch the replay of the pat obrien...no matter the number, you will seldom see a horse go any easier at that cruising speed...talk at the time was that Sadler scratched Accellerate out of the race because he would have lost to Cruiser...works are sharp and seems as if it's all systems go...only problem will likely be the short odds...

[Spalding No!]

...saying that...he also trains American Gal who is one of my favorite horses..
American Gal arguably could be added to your list, too.

She had 2 different layoffs of over 6 months in her 9-race career, hasn't been out since flopping at Belmont 4 months ago, and is apparently retired as she's entered in the Fasig-Tipton November Sale as a broodmare prospect.

[Spalding No!]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.
Bold declaration with the X-factor Euros always hit-or-miss.

I don't know how well you rate her, but Summering was all the rage on the west coast, and her price will balloon from odds-on to 30-1 (morning line) in the Breeders' Cup.

Room didn't open up for her down the lane last out and Drayden Van Dyke didn't seem willing to let her loose anyways, especially right before the wire when he snatched her up noticeably. Not sure if she was lugging into the rail or what, but if she's all right physically, she should outrun her odds. Whether that's good enough to win the whole thing remains to be seen.

[Suff]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

That's good twitter humor. :)

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

In the Juvenile Fillies, I see great upside with Jaywalk getting the job done. Cassies Dream has potential to hit the board at big odds. Don't like Bellafina, as she is not efficient and effective late pace wise as Jaywalk is.

[biggestal99]

Most likely- Enable

Value- Stillwater Cove

Toss- Monomoy Girl


Allan

[the little guy]

That's good twitter humor. :)

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

The Mackem Bullet is talented, though a bit of a hanger, and hasn't been tested beyond 6F.

Nobody in Newspaperofrecord's races has done much because they have raced against her. The second finisher in the Miss Grillo might prove her biggest rival here.

La Pelosa benefited from a very fast pace last time ( as did the runner up ) and still didn't run nearly as fast as Newspaperofrecord.

Only yielding turf? What conditions do you think she will get on Friday given the expected two or three inches of rain on Wednesday and Thursday? This is to her advantage....not disadvantage.

Perhaps someone will challenge her and she may fold, but given her competition in this race, nobody may be good enough to do that.

You don't trust her Beyers? Well, they work for the horses behind her, so I'm not sure what is actually untrustworthy about them. As far as Craig's figures, they make her overwhelmingly the horse to beat as well.

But, most importantly, he is a she.

[the little guy]

To further the Newspaperofrecord argument, win or lose, she is the single likeliest winner of all the BC races. She might lose, I pick against and bet against the likeliest winner of many races, but going through each BC race, no horse overwhelms their competition more than she does going into the race. She also has intangibles in her favor ( her trainer has been successful in this particular race and the BC in general wherever it has been run, and she has shown a definite affinity for the conditions she is likely to face ).


Picking, and/or betting, against her is fine. But to deny she is the likeliest winner of both this race and even all the BC races is, frankly, indisputable.

[bobphilo]

Dirt Mile -- Catalina Cruiser...would have liked to see Sadler take a shot with this horse in the Classic

Sadler has kept Cruiser and Accelerate apart because he doesn't want to see one beating the other and hanging a loss on it's record. I myself don't know who is the better of the 2. Looks like we will probably never know. I just hope Cruiser runs in the Classic next year as a 5YO.

[classhandicapper]

I'd like to know the consensus view on Abel Tasman.

She was one of the best fillies in the country last year, ran very well in the BC Distaff, and seemed to rounding into new peak form at 4 when she won the Personal Ensign (and the 3rd and 4th finishers came back to win and verify the quality of that race). (though the track may have helped her a little that day) Then she was inexplicably dull in the Zenyatta.

I've seen quite a few top fillies/mares throw in 1 dud race and come right back to top form over the years, but it sure isn't 100% that she will even if she's trained by Bob Baffert who I am sure had her checked out physically.

What's a fair price on her?

[cj]

I'd like to know the consensus view on Abel Tasman.

She was one of the best fillies in the country last year, ran very well in the BC Distaff, and seemed to rounding into new peak form at 4 when she won the Personal Ensign (and the 3rd and 4th finishers came back to win and verify the quality of that race). (though the track may have helped her a little that day) Then she was inexplicably dull in the Zenyatta.

I've seen quite a few top fillies/mares throw in 1 dud race and come right back to top form over the years, but it sure isn't 100% that she will even if she's trained by Bob Baffert who I am sure had her checked out physically.

What's a fair price on her?

I wouldn't say inexplicable. Baffert has been widely reported as saying she turned out to be sick. I'm all for being skeptical of trainer speak but her race was so bad I tend to believe it.

[classhandicapper]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

I'd have a tough time taking a short price on her simply because there are a couple of Graded Stakes caliber Euros in there that are harder to get a line on. I'm a little negative on a couple of them for good reason, but still. I'm way more cautious about calling any horse as an obvious choice unless I have a damn good line on everyone else that looks like they could be a contender.

[Spalding No!]

To further the Newspaperofrecord argument, win or lose, she is the single likeliest winner of all the BC races. She might lose, I pick against and bet against the likeliest winner of many races, but going through each BC race, no horse overwhelms their competition more than she does going into the race. She also has intangibles in her favor ( her trainer has been successful in this particular race and the BC in general wherever it has been run, and she has shown a definite affinity for the conditions she is likely to face ).
When measured up to the NA competition, there's no doubting your argument. But how are you resolving the issue with the Europeans? Time and again, we've seen what appear to be "second string" horses ship over and dominate races like this (e.g., any of O'Brien's Juvenile Turf winners, Flotilla, Chriselliam).

East won her debut facing winners in the UK on a soft turf course, then shipped over to France and rallied smartly to win a Group 3 in the clear. Unraced beyond 7 furlongs, but her pedigree (Frankel) suggests additional stamina and she will be first time lasix. Post is no bargain, of course.

Lily's Candle has excelled over soft turf and over the mile distance and took down a Group 1 last out. Doesn't add lasix, however.

[cj]

I'd have a tough time taking a short price on her simply because there are a couple of Graded Stakes caliber Euros in there that are harder to get a line on. I'm a little negative on a couple of them for good reason, but still. I'm way more cautious about calling any horse as an obvious choice unless I have a damn good line on everyone else that looks like they could be a contender.

In know way did I say I'd take a short price on her. I said she is the most likely winner, nothing more.

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't say inexplicable. Baffert has been widely reported as saying she turned out to be sick. I'm all for being skeptical of trainer speak but her race was so bad I tend to believe it.

I may have read that and forgot he said it, but from the training pattern it doesn't look like she missed much time. A couple of days at most. I'm legitimately perplexed about how to handle her.

[cj]

I may have read that and forgot he said it, but from the training pattern it doesn't look like she missed much time. A couple of days at most. I'm legitimately perplexed about how to handle her.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/230089/abel-tasman-back-to-old-self-in-santa-anita-workout

[the little guy]

When measured up to the NA competition, there's no doubting your argument. But how are you resolving the issue with the Europeans? Time and again, we've seen what appear to be "second string" horses ship over and dominate races like this (e.g., any of O'Brien's Juvenile Turf winners, Flotilla, Chriselliam).

East won her debut facing winners in the UK on a soft turf course, then shipped over to France and rallied smartly to win a Group 3 in the clear. Unraced beyond 7 furlongs, but her pedigree (Frankel) suggests additional stamina and she will be first time lasix. Post is no bargain, of course.

Lily's Candle has excelled over soft turf and over the mile distance and took down a Group 1 last out. Doesn't add lasix, however.

East drew poorly and needs to improve further to be within hailing distance of Newspaperofrecord. She did win a five horse race last time where the favorite was off the board after getting rank. Lily's Candle also needs to improve after winning a blanket photo at 47:1. O'Brien chose to run Hermosa against the boys this past Sunday and sent a clear lower level horse in Just Wonderful. Sure, any of these could step forward, but it's not as though you can't evaluate them, at least reasonably, and they are all inferior to Newspaperofrecord...at least going into the race.

Which random Euro 2YO fillies have won this race so far? Which good looking Chad Brown horses have failed miserably in this spot?

Like I said, she very well might lose, but going into the race, Newspaperofrecord looks very strong. What is the chink in her armor?

[f2tornado]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

I will concur. Brown owns that race and this appears to be a special horse.

My next best bet is Wild Illusion in the Filly & Mare Turf. Trainer won it last year and I think this one is better. Gets a desirable post and it's not like the American contingent is all that great.

I doubt I'll get 6-1 on Promises Fulfilled in the Sprint but horse gets a dream hole yet again.

My best value plays include Catapult in the Mile which seems like a wide open race, Champaign Problems who is a horse for course in the Distaff, and McKinzie in the Classic who perhaps is a budding superstar.

[Suff]

The Mackem Bullet is talented, though a bit of a hanger, and hasn't been tested beyond 6F.



You don't trust her Beyers? Well, they work for the horses behind her, so I'm not sure what is actually untrustworthy about them. As far as Craig's figures, they make her overwhelmingly the horse to beat as well.

But, most importantly, he is a she.

lol. I tried to fix that but the 15 minutes edit time had passed. i saw you make the same mistake on the show Friday... :headbanger:


I'm looking at Races, I sometimes start at the Favorite and look for reasons to not to bet her. One mistake that I make frequently is to construct a case that is not entirely accurate. What I'm doing is trying too hard to justify betting a longer odds horse.

As a middle/longshot player its probably my biggest failing. I need to know when to give up and bet the logical instead of the illogical.

[metro]

I may have read that and forgot he said it, but from the training pattern it doesn't look like she missed much time. A couple of days at most. I'm legitimately perplexed about how to handle her.

Arrogate threw in a clunker for Baffert at extremely short odds too. Off the board in the San Diego back in '17. Ran twice more.... 2nd a month later (with 114 Beyer) to Collected in the Pacific Classic and an up the track 5th against Gun Runner in the BC, both at Del Mar.

Would venture to say Abel is still a viable contender mainly because others in the race have questions as well. Wouldn't take a short price on her though, especially if Baffert's other BC runners aren't firing.

[Suff]

I'm using TimeformUS numbers only recently so maybe I'm using them wrong.

TFUS actually has the Woodbine race quicker than NOR's ? At least the first 1/2 mile.

And the TFUS sectional figures for La Pelosa 1st USA race, match the figures for NOR's first race. Am I correct?

Why are NOR's pace #'s not RED?

Jerry Brown at Thorograph talked about beyer regression, and the public's incorrect assumption that horse will race to a new high, or the same number.

I'm not crazy when I say .. Le Pelosa , 2nd race in US is likely a candidate for racing to a new TOP, and NOR is a candidate for a bounce?

[classhandicapper]

Would venture to say Abel is still a viable contender mainly because others in the race have questions as well. Wouldn't take a short price on her though, especially if Baffert's other BC runners aren't firing.

I guess that's where I'm at with her also.

I can't take a short price, but I'm not anxious to make her a total toss either. In some of these marginal decisions for me I typically hope that something about the way the track is playing or the way the race seems likely to develop pushes me in one direction or the other. In this case it will probably come down to price if I use her at all.

[Fred Mertz]

I'll bet Blue Prize with my life savings...$40 bucks.

[f2tornado]

I'm not crazy when I say .. Le Pelosa , 2nd race in US is likely a candidate for racing to a new TOP, and NOR is a candidate for a bounce?

I won't disagree on Le Pelosa. The horse has a solid J/T combo for turf invaders. I don't think NOR is a bouncer. Chad Brown is notorious for having his horses cranked on the third out. He has also nailed three of the last four of these. I'll also point out the last two outings for this horse were on yielding courses so I'd personally use a little caution comparing fractions and pace figures to a firm track.

[classhandicapper]

Horses like La Pelosa are why I have a tough time taking short prices on US horses on turf against a few foreigners.

La Pelosa didn't look like an especially high quality horse coming in and she wasn't fast either, but she improved her Thorograph figure by MORE than 4 points that day. That kind of thing happens all the time. For some it may be the addition of lasix and for others their Euro speed figures may be underrated relative to US counterparts because of race development and other issues. Either way or both, I know not to be too literal about time based figures out of Europe. I'd way rather watch the replays and try to get a line on the horses qualitatively. That of course is a lot tougher in this case because there aren't many 2yo shippers into the US and the historical record tells you nothing about "this crop".

PS: Pivottina also improved her figure by over 4 TG points. That's a big jump.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057341030352138240

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057411644471500800

[classhandicapper]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057411644471500800

That's a bit of an ambiguous trip to me.

He got bumped hard twice out of the gate. That caused him to drop way out of it relative to his previous running style. But I have that race marked as loaded with early speed. The race then kind of collapsed. So he may have actually benefited to some degree by being taken off the pace, albeit unintentionally. Still, that was quite a run.

[Andy Asaro]

That's a bit of an ambiguous trip to me.

He got bumped hard twice out of the gate. That caused him to drop way out of it relative to his previous running style. But I have that race marked as loaded with early speed. The race then kind of collapsed. So he may have actually benefited to some degree by being taken off the pace, albeit unintentionally. Still, that was quite a run.

Right, it did collapse but given the amount of trouble and the probability that he'll get a stalking and ground saving trip here makes him tough IMO.

[azeri98]

I think Enable is the most likely winner unless she doesn't care for the soft turf, if not her than I think it's Imperial Hint in the Sprint. I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille

Value plays are
Firenze Fire
Eziyra
Oscar Performance, Expert Eye
Yoshida
Blue Prize
Restless Rider
Line of Duty
Standard Deviation

[classhandicapper]

Right, it did collapse but given the amount of trouble and the probability that he'll get a stalking and ground saving trip here makes him tough IMO.

I have no problem at all with using that horse. Good luck.

Personally, I'm having a tough time coming up with any really solid plays at good prices, but I haven't finished. I'm just getting started.

[Andy Asaro]

I have no problem at all with using that horse. Good luck.

Personally, I'm having a tough time coming up with any really solid plays at good prices, but I haven't finished. I'm just getting started.

Another problem could be with the condition of the turf course and how the inside is playing. I guess I'll have to make up my mind on Friday. GL to you as well.

[classhandicapper]

I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille



I'm interested in Code of Honor also, but it looks like a tough group.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057460809784221696

[trifecta]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

Newspaperofrecord is the likely winner of the Juvenile Filly Turf because of her ability, especially on yielding turf, but I believe Concrete Rose, one of three fillies that are 2 for 2 lifetime (Newspaperofrecord and East are the other two) has a shot at the upset.

She closed well in both of her starts, including winning her last drawing away. The time wasn't special but she made it look fairly easy, sitting just off the pace and sweeping by after they turned for home.

[Robert Fischer]

Newspaperofrecord looks tough.

She may end up dictating some of my race selection for Friday, once I've seen the bigger picture.

She should be on or right near early, and it's hard to find anyone who is really going to collapse the pace. Concrete Rose should be prominent, having drawn the rail and sporting solid pace figures. Summering isn't typically ridden like a sprinter in spite of the 'Cali reputation for speed.

Either Newspaperofrecord has an off night, or she trounces this field up front, or East is also some freak, and we have some very rare special edition of the JFT...

East could be good, and you've got 17 seconds to find a decent spot, but even 3-wide and off the pace is a disadvantage if Newspaperofrecord is out front dictating a moderate pace.

With prices to come up for the board; I find The Mackem Bullet arousing. She seems relatively game, and I have a thing for foreign shippers who have to stretch out. The scenario suits particularly well here. Lily's Candle is solid at a shorter price.

[jay68802]

Saturday Race #3 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Grade I


:11: Finley'sluckycharm 10-1

Won 3 of last 4 races coming off a break, toss the turf try and she is 3 for 3. Shows quite a few races that can win here. Is 6 for 7 at Churchill Downs, with the lone loss coming on a off track.

[jay68802]

Saturday Race #4: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Grade I

:6: Rainbow Heir 12-1

Picked this one in his last race and could only muster a third place finish. Plenty of speed in here to set up the late kick. The extra 1/2 furlong should heip also. 7 of 10 in the money finishes help, and the pilot is 2 for 2 on this one.

[metro]

Catalina Cruiser is certainly the most likely winner of the Dirt mile but the race still offers value imo. City of Light drew the rail and I'm hoping she doesn't get the trip from there, will try and get her out of the money.

Giant Expectations the value play....2nd off layoff.....brought to CD for the Ack Ack back in Sept.....good at one turn 7F and mile races.....Eurton wanted outside draw and got it.

Awesome Slew another who could hit the exotics at a boxcar price.

[parlay]

I'll bet Blue Prize with my life savings...$40 bucks.

How the hell did you manage to save that much:lol:
Clearly your not a degenerate

[MutuelClerk]

Don't really have a most likely winner. Two best values.

Limousine Liberal. At this website with a name like that I could get 99-1. Horses for courses? Half his earnings have been made at CD. Hopefully enough pace for him.

Blue Prize. Great form. Again. Races well at CD.


Favorites i'm beating. Monomoy Girl. Accelerate. Might as well save the best for last.

Waldgeist maybe over Enable? Using those two in the P4. Polydream road trouble in last. Must use in the first leg. Classic field not very impressive to me this year. I thought West Coast was more impressive than McKinzie in their last starts yet Smith took McKinzie. Does Smith have loyalty with Pegram?

[Mailman]

MutualClerk
I read somewhere that Smith was riding McKinzie because they were running him next year as a 4yo and did not want to lose the mount if he won the Classic. It was in the Louisville Courier Journal. It said he had a choice of the two of them.

[Afleet]

MutualClerk
I read somewhere that Smith was riding McKinzie because they were running him next year as a 4yo and did not want to lose the mount if he won the Classic. It was in the Louisville Courier Journal. It said he had a choice of the two of them.

Baffert said that in an interview

[SeaHorseRacing]

These are my Plays at Breeders Cup at UK bookmaker prices. I feel have some value.

Not all of them have a 100% overlay. The horses I have marked with a * I have noted what I think are serious bets in terms of Value.

BC Juvenile Turf: Bulletin 9/1
I don’t feel the Europeans are of any real threat. There doesn’t appear to be any stand out star. Additionally feel that the Europeans are exposed.
Bulletin has the potential to be a star. It’s imposible to know but after one run this horse could be anything.
I’ve rated Bulletin a 25%.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: Newspaperofrecord 7/4
My only concern with this race is out of all the turf races this has the most horses who I believe are unexposed. I don’t see much value in this bet but I do feel newspaperofrecord has the best form on offer.
A lot of UK horses trying a new distance who could be anything.

BC Juvenile Fillies: Sippican Harbour 6/1

I don’t know a massive amount about US horses but I think the extra furlong could see some improvement in what looks a lovely horse. I think the market is over looking this runner due to the strength at the head of the market.
I think this Filly is a genuine 4/1 shot (25% chance)

BC Juvenile Turf: Uncle Benny 16/1
This horse sticks out like a sore thumb!! It actually really excites me because I feel the favourite can be thrown out.
Anonthy Van Dyk was Derby fav for next year not so long ago and I think Aiden O’Brien has mad a bad call with this horse. I expected him to be tucked away for the winter but he just keeps going racing. I think ballydoyle know this horse is not as good as they thought. He’s been drawn too far wide and had a tough season.
I think Uncle Benny stepping up a further 2 furlongs is very exciting!! I think he’s bred for a mile and I can see huge improvement in this horse.
16/1 available on horse who I feel is 4/1 shot (25%)

BC Juvenile: Game Winner 7/4
As a specimen this horse looks an absolute monster. He looks visually a different league to any horse I’ve seen. Although sectionals may not say he’s that far ahead I believe this horse is a champion. Expecting further improvement from a horse who imo looks like a 5 year.
Complexity looks good on paper and could be a danger but I genuinely feel Game Winner has over a 50% chance of winning.
Some lovey value there!

BC Filly & Mare Sprint: Golden Mischief 14/1
I have been scratching my head here as I still don’t know why Golden Mishief is such a big price. I don’t follow US racing everyday but do feel this horse has a fair chance and feel Marley’s Freedom is slightly on the short side considering Selcourt is in the race too.
Fell Golden Mischeif will show.

BC Turf Sprint: Conquest Tsunami 11/1
Disappoint about the draw. But I am sticking with gelding. He wasn’t too far away from some of these in previous meetings who are considerably shorter in the betting. The drop back to 5.5 furlongs might reverse the form and fell he’s a fair 7/1 shot and 11/1 is gernous imo.

BC Dirt Mile: Catalina Cruiser 11/8
My favourite horse of the meeting. Hopefully will go the Classic next year...
This is the strongest horse in relation to its opposition imo.
I can’t offer anything people may already know but I do feel there’s still value in this horse. Come Saturday he may look like 1/2 shot if he wins well.

BC Filly & Mare Turf: Sistercharlie 3/1
Very difficult race to asses. A lot of unexposed horses and this maybe a clean sweep for European horses.
I find Sistercharlie interesting because I think 11f is the perfect trip but feel 3/1 is a very efficient price.

BC Sprint: Promises Fulfilled 11/2
The way Promises fulfilled battled for the pace and won last time out was very impressive. Again I’m not sure what the clock says but his video form has really taken my eye. I think this is another race where the top two in the market are taking too much attention. I think this horse has a lot of improvement to come considering this distance is fairly new to the horse.
7/2 I have him.

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot. This horse could be the new Goldikova totally unexposed. Ignore the last run I feel it was a group 1 prep for this race, had 0 luck in running and finished 7th on the bridle. Her opposition look below BC Mile quality.

BC Turf: Waldgeist 11/2
A horse I’m prepared to take another chance. Not very often i back the same horse almost as blindly as will with Waldgeist but I feel this race is a two horse race and if Enable doesn’t fire he be there to take the crown.
Surprised by the price.. feel he’s a 3/1 shot.

BC Classic: McKenzie 5/1
A very open classic this year but I feel this horse has the most improvement to give and a horse who hasn’t even tried 10f yet is a bet I want to be on.
I have him as 3/1 joint favourite with Accelerate.
McKenzie reminds me of Blame who beat the mighty Zenyatta.

[Robert Fischer]

After looking at the whole picture, JFT looks like a 'Pass' for me.

May get 35-1 on Mackem Bullet. The talking heads will dismiss her, and NPR will take $$, but even building Tris and Supers to feature MB in underneath slots is muddled w/ unexposed foreigners and enough lump-up American closers.

I suppose a single is in order if you really want to stretch a 7,8,9 P3 into a single-7,8,9-single P5...


Newspaperofrecord looks tough.

She may end up dictating some of my race selection for Friday, once I've seen the bigger picture.

She should be on or right near early, and it's hard to find anyone who is really going to collapse the pace. Concrete Rose should be prominent, having drawn the rail and sporting solid pace figures. Summering isn't typically ridden like a sprinter in spite of the 'Cali reputation for speed.

Either Newspaperofrecord has an off night, or she trounces this field up front, or East is also some freak, and we have some very rare special edition of the JFT...

East could be good, and you've got 17 seconds to find a decent spot, but even 3-wide and off the pace is a disadvantage if Newspaperofrecord is out front dictating a moderate pace.

With prices to come up for the board; I find The Mackem Bullet arousing. She seems relatively game, and I have a thing for foreign shippers who have to stretch out. The scenario suits particularly well here. Lily's Candle is solid at a shorter price.

[classhandicapper]

For anyone that watches replays of the foreign races on Youtube or at another source, it can sometimes be difficult to figure out which horse is which from the replays. Timeform has the Post Positions in their foreign PPs. That has come in handy for me a few times watching the races because I knew where the horse was starting from and could pick it up quickly.

[Afleet]

For anyone that watches replays of the foreign races on Youtube or at another source, it can sometimes be difficult to figure out which horse is which from the replays. Timeform has the Post Positions in their foreign PPs. That has come in handy for me a few times watching the races because I knew where the horse was starting from and could pick it up quickly.

I usually have to watch it multiple times and look for colors of the silks

[classhandicapper]

I usually have to watch it multiple times and look for colors of the silks

Yeah, I look for the silks too, but if you know the PP and color of the silks it's very easy even if the replay is in a foreign language, the horses are all over the track, and multiple horses have similar silks. It's not essential, but if you have a Timeform account, it helps. That's one way I use it.

[Redboard]

Most likely: R9 –Juvy (dirt) - :9: Game Winner 8/5
Value: R8 - Juvy (turf) - :5: Line of Duty 10/1
Toss: R5 - Juvy Sprint (turf) – :1: Strike Silver 4-1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Track conditions this weekend are gonna be crazy. Very simply why I didn't travel to Churchill to break a streak of attending 10 straight Breeder's Cups was because of what we are seeing now.:mad:


Anyway per the request:


Most Likely: Imperial Hint


Best Value: Big Drink of Water/ Line of Duty/Dueling/Hembree/Eziyra/Mushtashry/Wow Cat/Hi Happy


Tosses: Monomoy Girl/Bellafina/Complexity/Disco Partner-Stormy Liberal/Oscar Performance/McKinzie

[ARAZI91]

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot.

.

An Even Money shot - really!! There are 6 in here who on their best form are no more than 3lbs apart - That's not including Mutashry and One Master who are both from top trainers and maybe again 3lbs below the lowest rated of that six.
Pretty deep field for evens.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Most likely: R9 –Juvy (dirt) - :9: Game Winner 8/5
Value: R8 - Juvy (turf) - :5: Line of Duty 10/1
Toss: R5 - Juvy Sprint (turf) – :1: Strike Silver 4-1


Thinking we'll be getting half of that ML on Line of Duty.

[azeri98]

Track conditions this weekend are gonna be crazy. Very simply why I didn't travel to Churchill to break a streak of attending 10 straight Breeder's Cups was because of what we are seeing now.:mad:


Anyway per the request:


Most Likely: Imperial Hint


Best Value: Big Drink of Water/ Line of Duty/Dueling/Hembree/Eziyra/Mushtashry/Wow Cat/Hi Happy


Tosses: Monomoy Girl/Bellafina/Complexity/Disco Partner-Stormy Liberal/Oscar Performance/McKinzie

Just curious why are you tossing Complexity and Oscar Performance?

[Afleet]

Most Likely: Imperial Hint


Best Value: Eziyra, Magical


Tosses: Monomoy Girl, Disco Partner, Able Tasman (still playing just less than my other contenders)

[GMB@BP]

Hard to see Newspaperofrecord losing. Hard to see Enable losing.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just curious why are you tossing Complexity and Oscar Performance?

Complexity: I see a speed-riddled race and a horse that likes/needs to be on the lead. Has 2 to 3 speeds inside him and a couple on the outside. Has been clear at the 1st call in both races and romped on fast tracks. It won't be fast tomorrow, and more than likely thick and grueling. His numbers are as good as any, but I'd rather take a price that can sit with this field.



Oscar Performance: Has never ran a good race on good, soft, much less a yielding turf course. Also not sure he has really ever beat all that much. Not sure he finishes in the top half of the field. Look at his races in which he has faced 3YO and over. Almost every other horse in the field has beaten better.

[Nitro]

Right now my top 5 “handicapped” selections in the BC Classic are:

1) Mind Your Biscuits
2) Thunder Snow
3) Accelerate
4) Discreet Lover
5) Roaring Lion

(Based on the current conditions and the weather forecast I’m thinking the track may be a bit off)

I give Mind Your Biscuits a bit of an edge because it has good race over the track and seems to handle any kind of racing surface. Its running style fits this race very nicely. Has an early 6/1 M/L and will probably go off even higher. It should be quite a race!

Good Luck

[Suff]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvFLcwj73XM

[ReplayRandall]

Solely because of track conditions, I'm throwing out all non front speed in every race on dirt, both days.....Playing all foreign horses on turf at 8-1 or more, shotgun them all.

[bobphilo]

Right now my top 5 “handicapped” selections in the BC Classic are:

1) Mind Your Biscuits
2) Thunder Snow
3) Accelerate
4) Discreet Lover
5) Roaring Lion

(Based on the current conditions and the weather forecast I’m thinking the track may be a bit off)

I give Mind Your Biscuits a bit of an edge because it has good race over the track and seems to handle any kind of racing surface. Its running style fits this race very nicely. Has an early 6/1 M/L and will probably go off even higher. It should be quite a race!

Good Luck

Seems like you mostly favor horses that can close. Are you anticipating a quick pace or are just selecting these horses based on suitability to likely track condition?

Good luck to you too.

[GMB@BP]

Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.

There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.

[Nitro]

Seems like you mostly favor horses that can close. Are you anticipating a quick pace or are just selecting these horses based on suitability to likely track condition?

Good luck to you too.
Based the updated weather report (no more rain) for the next 2 days, I believe the current very sloppy dirt track and yielding turf course will be slowly drying out because of only cool temperatures. So it’ll probably be muddy (dirt) and soft (turf) today (Fri) and continue drying out slowly on Sat. How much it dries on Sat depends on the amount of wind and sun light it receives.

For those reasons I believe the early speed types will be at a disadvantage especially if there’s a number of those types in the same race. I would prefer those that run “on” the pace or just a bit “off”.

1) You’ll notice that Mind Your Biscuits (as a previous sprinter) now runs a lot closer to the pace in a distance race. Its just cruising. I doubt it’ll be far back early.

2) Thunder Snow should also be relatively close-up early.

3) Accelerate is always close-up early on.

4) Discreet Lover is a solid closer and may be substituted depending on how the track is: Has not performed all that well on off tracks. I may use Mendelssohn instead.

5) Roaring Lion a solid turf loving animal that also runs “On” the pace. I love the turf-to-dirt scenario, especially if the track is a bit off.

I recommend keeping a close eye on how the early races are playing and how the early fractions impact the stretch drives.

GL to all!

[Nitro]

Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.

There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.
I'm not sure why any one would select an animal that will certainly be outclassed at a distance it hasn't handled in 3 previous attempts.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not sure why any one would select an animal that will certainly be outclassed at a distance it hasn't handled in 3 previous attempts.

Because he has talent, enough to win a grade 1 race, and will be 30/1.

how much class is in here? IF the fav doesnt fire I think the rest of this, throw them in a bingo machine and you can pick a number. In that case I want a real price.

[Nitro]

Because he has talent, enough to win a grade 1 race, and will be 30/1.

how much class is in here? IF the fav doesnt fire I think the rest of this, throw them in a bingo machine and you can pick a number. In that case I want a real price.
Other than the odds assessment (which may even be a bit light), I completely disagree with your comments about Pavel. I’m not even sure we’re looking at the same PPs. If you really believe that horse has more talent than other’s in this race I would question how you evaluate Class to begin with.

This race is not just about the “favorite not firing” and it’s certainly not a crap shoot. There are quite a few REALLY talented horses in this years BC Classic, but Pavel in my estimation is not among them.

Yes, you guessed it: Its TOSS for me. Personally, even at 100/1 I wouldn’t bet that horse with your money. But who am I to talk you out of throwing your money at any long shot?

Good Luck!

[FakeNameChanged]

Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.

There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.Serling or Beyer? Do you have the link to Andy S' picks? He was lights out two year ago, this may be another up year. I enjoy his comments.

[Robert Fischer]

Serling or Beyer? Do you have the link to Andy S' picks? He was lights out two year ago, this may be another up year. I enjoy his comments.


race preview videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/NYRAvideo/videos




I'm a bit surprised that Andy thinks Game Winner will let Complexity go, with Game Winner cruising along in a stalking position.
Tactically it makes a ton of sense, just have come to expect Baffert to be aggressive. Bobby loves speed horses, and likes to make it a test of stamina up front. That's his edge...
These tactics probably shape the race.
Andy is the best within the business, and he's thorough with his homework, so I respect his opinion on the tactics enough to question my assumption.

If Complexity and Baffert and Asmussen duel, Standard Deviation will have a chance to prove that he's Klaravich's Derby prospect.

But if Rosario and Game Winner just let Complexity go, it looks like a 1-on-1 stretch battle between those two.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.

[azeri98]

Complexity: I see a speed-riddled race and a horse that likes/needs to be on the lead. Has 2 to 3 speeds inside him and a couple on the outside. Has been clear at the 1st call in both races and romped on fast tracks. It won't be fast tomorrow, and more than likely thick and grueling. His numbers are as good as any, but I'd rather take a price that can sit with this field.



Oscar Performance: Has never ran a good race on good, soft, much less a yielding turf course. Also not sure he has really ever beat all that much. Not sure he finishes in the top half of the field. Look at his races in which he has faced 3YO and over. Almost every other horse in the field has beaten better.

Ok Thanks, I believe OP has a win over yielding turf another poster mentioned it I have to look again, thanks for the input

[azeri98]

Solely because of track conditions, I'm throwing out all non front speed in every race on dirt, both days.....Playing all foreign horses on turf at 8-1 or more, shotgun them all.

:ThmbUp:Couldn't agree more

[azeri98]

Code of Honor to be scratched from the BC according to Bloodhorse

[Robert Fischer]

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.


The only flaw I see in Game Winner is his physicality.


While his stamina stays on much better than his rivals, ... his physicality... it's not going down, but it's starting to go down.

[classhandicapper]

The only flaw I see in Game Winner is his physicality.


While his stamina stays on much better than his rivals, ... his physicality... it's not going down, but it's starting to go down.

I just read a workout report that said he's put on weight and and his coat looks better than ever.

[Robert Fischer]

I just read a workout report that said he's put on weight and and his coat looks better than ever.


Big muscles & doesn't get tired like the other horses...

I'm looking at stuff like how his ears pin back, and he hits the ground hard with his right lead, and he lowers his head a bit during those signature Baffert gallop-out moves.


He can bury this field
Complexity can get brave
A duel could develop, and Game Winner may have too much heart and collapse the whole pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Complexity is big beast in his own right. If you quibble, you could say doesn't want to relax into a cruise, but the reverse is that he can go faster. He's got the beach bod.

Standard Deviation is not as physically developed as some of these. Maybe he hasn't peaked yet, and is going to appreciate added distance and maturity to 3yo. He'll need a really HOT pace to factor today.

[AxleLode]

Friday

Most likely Race5):2:Soldiers Call
Value Race8):10:War of Will
Toss Race7):7:Jaywalk

Sat

Most likely Race10):2:Enable
Value Race6):14:Eziyra
Toss Race9):11:Monomoy Girl

[Tom]

Friday

$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Most likely winner - Newspaperofrecord


$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES

Longshot special - Cassies Dreamer


1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

Toss - SERGEI PROKOFIEV


:sleeping:

[olddaddy]

Newspaperofrecord will be overbet

The 5 euros didnt ship in for a piece of the pie.

[ultracapper]

lol. I tried to fix that but the 15 minutes edit time had passed. i saw you make the same mistake on the show Friday... :headbanger:


I'm looking at Races, I sometimes start at the Favorite and look for reasons to not to bet her. One mistake that I make frequently is to construct a case that is not entirely accurate. What I'm doing is trying too hard to justify betting a longer odds horse.

As a middle/longshot player its probably my biggest failing. I need to know when to give up and bet the logical instead of the illogical.

or better yet, just walk away. Taking a price you hate on a horse you don't really want is a gut-wrencher as often as not.

[Loserdave]

Friday
Most Likely: Game Winner
Best Value: Stillwater Cove
Toss: Jaywalk

[Maximillion]

lol. I tried to fix that but the 15 minutes edit time had passed. i saw you make the same mistake on the show Friday... :headbanger:


I'm looking at Races, I sometimes start at the Favorite and look for reasons to not to bet her. One mistake that I make frequently is to construct a case that is not entirely accurate. What I'm doing is trying too hard to justify betting a longer odds horse.

As a middle/longshot player its probably my biggest failing. I need to know when to give up and bet the logical instead of the illogical.

Im guilty of doing this exact thing at times as well.
It reminds me of something TLG said in another thread...."if you like betting the 4th best horse at 8-1, then this is the horse for you"-or something like that.
You come across horses you know are better than they look,and then try make the facts fit your theory rather than the other way around.

[cj]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

She will also be the easiest winner when all is said and done. Wow, what a performance.

[olddaddy]

Watch the break from a horrible post:14: and the trip on a front running grass course, also very impressive.

[Redboard]

So far so good CJ. You had Bulletin as your value play (on the DRF show, although he went off as the 2nd fav surprisingly ) and your mortal lock won the 6th.

[classhandicapper]

Watch the break from a horrible post:14: and the trip on a front running grass course, also very impressive.

That's who I keyed. She ran really really well also. I saved with a place bet and the exacta so I made a few bucks, but the winner was a monster. East may have jumped up a bunch like I was hoping and expecting given the start, position, and ground, but the other one freaked. It wasn't nearly enough even with a better trip.

[RunDustyRun]

Value -- Anonymity in the F&M sprint...beautiful filly who Mandella has brought along slowly..last race sets her up for a huge run in my eyes

Toss -- Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out and come home times are nothing special...east coast fillies look better to me

The next time Callaghan can get his horses to run three good races in a row will be his first time...

[fiznow]

My value plays for Saturday:


R3 BC Filly and Mare Sprint
Sel #9 Stormy Embrace ML 20-1

R4 BC Turf Sprint
Sel #10 Havana Grey ML 20-1

R5 BC Dirt Mile
Sel #4 Seven Trumpets ML 15-1

R6 BC Filly and Mare Turf
Sel #14 Eziyra ML 15-1


R8 BC Mile
Sel #14 Mustashry ML 15-1


R11 BC Classic
Sel #2 Roaring Lion ML 20-1


Most likely winner:
Enable

[GMB@BP]

Other than the odds assessment (which may even be a bit light), I completely disagree with your comments about Pavel. I’m not even sure we’re looking at the same PPs. If you really believe that horse has more talent than other’s in this race I would question how you evaluate Class to begin with.

This race is not just about the “favorite not firing” and it’s certainly not a crap shoot. There are quite a few REALLY talented horses in this years BC Classic, but Pavel in my estimation is not among them.

Yes, you guessed it: Its TOSS for me. Personally, even at 100/1 I wouldn’t bet that horse with your money. But who am I to talk you out of throwing your money at any long shot?

Good Luck!

we must have different assessments of talent, I dont see a ton of talent in this field.

[sammy the sage]

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.

nice call:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[SeaHorseRacing]

These are my Plays at Breeders Cup at UK bookmaker prices. I feel have some value.

Not all of them have a 100% overlay. The horses I have marked with a * I have noted what I think are serious bets in terms of Value.

BC Juvenile Turf: Bulletin 9/1
I don’t feel the Europeans are of any real threat. There doesn’t appear to be any stand out star. Additionally feel that the Europeans are exposed.
Bulletin has the potential to be a star. It’s imposible to know but after one run this horse could be anything.
I’ve rated Bulletin a 25%.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: Newspaperofrecord 7/4
My only concern with this race is out of all the turf races this has the most horses who I believe are unexposed. I don’t see much value in this bet but I do feel newspaperofrecord has the best form on offer.
A lot of UK horses trying a new distance who could be anything.

BC Juvenile Fillies: Sippican Harbour 6/1

I don’t know a massive amount about US horses but I think the extra furlong could see some improvement in what looks a lovely horse. I think the market is over looking this runner due to the strength at the head of the market.
I think this Filly is a genuine 4/1 shot (25% chance)

BC Juvenile Turf: Uncle Benny 16/1
This horse sticks out like a sore thumb!! It actually really excites me because I feel the favourite can be thrown out.
Anonthy Van Dyk was Derby fav for next year not so long ago and I think Aiden O’Brien has mad a bad call with this horse. I expected him to be tucked away for the winter but he just keeps going racing. I think ballydoyle know this horse is not as good as they thought. He’s been drawn too far wide and had a tough season.
I think Uncle Benny stepping up a further 2 furlongs is very exciting!! I think he’s bred for a mile and I can see huge improvement in this horse.
16/1 available on horse who I feel is 4/1 shot (25%)

BC Juvenile: Game Winner 7/4
As a specimen this horse looks an absolute monster. He looks visually a different league to any horse I’ve seen. Although sectionals may not say he’s that far ahead I believe this horse is a champion. Expecting further improvement from a horse who imo looks like a 5 year.
Complexity looks good on paper and could be a danger but I genuinely feel Game Winner has over a 50% chance of winning.
Some lovey value there!

BC Filly & Mare Sprint: Golden Mischief 14/1
I have been scratching my head here as I still don’t know why Golden Mishief is such a big price. I don’t follow US racing everyday but do feel this horse has a fair chance and feel Marley’s Freedom is slightly on the short side considering Selcourt is in the race too.
Fell Golden Mischeif will show.

BC Turf Sprint: Conquest Tsunami 11/1
Disappoint about the draw. But I am sticking with gelding. He wasn’t too far away from some of these in previous meetings who are considerably shorter in the betting. The drop back to 5.5 furlongs might reverse the form and fell he’s a fair 7/1 shot and 11/1 is gernous imo.

BC Dirt Mile: Catalina Cruiser 11/8
My favourite horse of the meeting. Hopefully will go the Classic next year...
This is the strongest horse in relation to its opposition imo.
I can’t offer anything people may already know but I do feel there’s still value in this horse. Come Saturday he may look like 1/2 shot if he wins well.

BC Filly & Mare Turf: Sistercharlie 3/1
Very difficult race to asses. A lot of unexposed horses and this maybe a clean sweep for European horses.
I find Sistercharlie interesting because I think 11f is the perfect trip but feel 3/1 is a very efficient price.

BC Sprint: Promises Fulfilled 11/2
The way Promises fulfilled battled for the pace and won last time out was very impressive. Again I’m not sure what the clock says but his video form has really taken my eye. I think this is another race where the top two in the market are taking too much attention. I think this horse has a lot of improvement to come considering this distance is fairly new to the horse.
7/2 I have him.

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot. This horse could be the new Goldikova totally unexposed. Ignore the last run I feel it was a group 1 prep for this race, had 0 luck in running and finished 7th on the bridle. Her opposition look below BC Mile quality.

BC Turf: Waldgeist 11/2
A horse I’m prepared to take another chance. Not very often i back the same horse almost as blindly as will with Waldgeist but I feel this race is a two horse race and if Enable doesn’t fire he be there to take the crown.
Surprised by the price.. feel he’s a 3/1 shot.

BC Classic: McKenzie 5/1
A very open classic this year but I feel this horse has the most improvement to give and a horse who hasn’t even tried 10f yet is a bet I want to be on.
I have him as 3/1 joint favourite with Accelerate.
McKenzie reminds me of Blame who beat the mighty Zenyatta.

Uncle Benny broke my heart last night.

[Loserdave]

Saturday
Most Likely Winner: Catalina Cruiser
Value: Lightning Spear
Toss: Oscar Performance

[powerrun]

That's good twitter humor. :)

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

Holy Cow! I believe Newspaperofrecord will go on to be a champion just like her sire, Lope de Vega. I love when I spot a horse before their first start and then they go on to be eventual champions. Actually, the pace and final times of the two prior races were impressive for a 2 year old turf runner. I was watching CBS sports before the race and I heard that Brown said Newspaperofrecord is a "special" horse. Rarely does Brown hype a horse in such a vocal way, at least not before the race.

[classhandicapper]

Not that I think speed figures are especially significant on turf, but Newpaperofrecord = Beyer 96 vs a Breeder's Cup PAR of 87.

Another big jump up

Last 3.

96
88
78

[castaway01]

Some 10-1ML and up horses who could do something today:

Filly and Mare Sprint: :11: Finley'sluckycharm 10-1
Why: 6 for 7 at track

Turf Sprint: :6: Rainbow Heir 12-1
Why: Servis, huge efforts at times

Filly and Mare Turf: :5: Princess Yaiza (IRE) 30-1
Why: Loves soft turf

:14: Eziyra (IRE) 15-1
Why: Has the talent, 1st Lasix, did get awful post or else should be 5-1

Mile: :8: I Can Fly (GB) 10-1
Why: O'Brien; lost neck to Roaring Lion who is very tough

Distaff: :3: La Force (GER) 20-1
Why: I admit it's tough to see her winning but in the money is not impossible at big odds. At least put her in your bets.

Turf: :3: Channel Maker 12-1
Why: Granted Enable is a killer but likes soft turf, huge efforts at times. Negative is not liking yielding ground at CD. I actually prefer Waldgeist to pull the upset but he's not 10-1ML

Classic: :8: Pavel 20-1
Why: I would pick West Coast on top but we're talking longshots. Pavel should get pace to run at, has won over track. Yoshida also worth a play if you get 10-1 and up, or Thunder Snow depending how the inside looks.

[MadVindication]

Dirt Mile: Bravazo
Classic: Thunder Snow

[Robert Fischer]

Dirt Mile: Bravazo
Classic: Thunder Snow

Great call :ThmbUp:


I never would have used Bravazo. Did key TS

tough weekend for me. I didn't exploit the Patch race. I didn't hammer City of Light. Was lucky in the Classic to get back.

[clicknow]

I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille

That was pretty much the ONLY wager I was interested in making on Friday.

[MadVindication]

Great call :ThmbUp:


I never would have used Bravazo. Did key TS

tough weekend for me. I didn't exploit the Patch race. I didn't hammer City of Light. Was lucky in the Classic to get back.


City of Light was the obvious of the chalk for me yet not so obvious, you know what I mean? I feel your pain there. I have problems betting chalk. Really hinders my exotic playing. I find it really hard to key and just hammer that opinion home. Big weakness in betting this game. First thought was to toss Catalina but the hype had me wasting money including him in a tri and wasting time thinking about it. But at least ain't nothing that can talk me off a long shot I like.

Bravazo. Well I just love that horse. Bravazo is a fan bet for me, tho I rightly skipped his last race, and figured Lukas didn't want to leave him unraced on road to the Breeder's Cup. I'm glad he was placed in the mile not the classic.

Contreras rode him pretty conservatively off the pace for that distance but I can't say that was wrong (and I think Contreras would have more to lose risking finishing out of the money than someone like Saez). Bravazo has a slow turn of foot hindering him, he's got some push button gumption if only he can get there. I know he likes an outside stalking position and that Cat Cruiser on the outside compromised him somewhat. Maybe he needs to be a bit closer to the leaders come stretch run.

If I see Bravazo racing competively at 8.5f, Contreras has the mount, at a mid outside post, with speed horses on the inside, I will bet all in. If he's at that distance and Saez is on him I'm going to write Lukas and the connections creepy, angry fan letters.

Sorry you had a tough weekend. On to the next races! I saw you had a post related to psychology of horseplaying that was really intriguing (what gets us up/down). I will dig that up and post about the breeders cup there. I'm usually analyzing my own betting psychology just as much as I analyze the horses.