midterm odds

[lamboguy]

House of Representatives: Democrats - $260

Senate: Republicans hold control (50 seats) - $335

Democrats to regain control (51 seats) +$275

[lamboguy]

a friend of mine got me down on the Democrats to control the House at - $120, Phil Bredeson to win Tennessee +300 and Bob Hugin to win Senate in New Jersey +400. the line was only good for $300 and he was not allowed to bet anymore on the same event even at a different price.

i still see basically the same prices as posted prior.

[classhandicapper]

I think it's going to be closer than people think even if the democrats do win the house. The democrats and their lackeys in the mainstream media have so demonized being a republican that if you take a poll many are not going to admit voting for one for fear antifa or some other leftist brown shirt organisation is going to beat them up. So they'd rather say, "Yeah, I'm voting for the leftist marxist socialist totalitarian douchebag not the guy that believes in the constitution, free speech, free markets and a secure border".

[elysiantraveller]

Democrats +35-40 in the House.

Senate is still a momentum thing... NV is going Blue. Arizona going Blue. North Dakota and Missouri? Texas and Tennessee lean R but early numbers in Texas are interesting... not really indicative of anything... but interesting.

Momentum this week will decide the Senate. Still a 52-48 scenario the R way and a 51-49 for the D's. The map is super favorable to the GOP this cycle in the Senate. 2020... not so much.

[classhandicapper]

The pendulum will continue swinging back and forth.

At this point it's a battle between how many recent immigrants vote left and how many former blue collar democrats vote right.

[FantasticDan]

I think it's going to be closer than people think even if the democrats do win the house. The democrats and their lackeys in the mainstream media have so demonized being a republican that if you take a poll many are not going to admit voting for one for fear antifa or some other leftist brown shirt organisation is going to beat them up. So they'd rather say, "Yeah, I'm voting for the leftist marxist socialist totalitarian douchebag not the guy that believes in the constitution, free speech, free markets and a secure border".

https://i.imgur.com/qCbR9GF.jpg

[chadk66]

Democrats +35-40 in the House.

Senate is still a momentum thing... NV is going Blue. Arizona going Blue. North Dakota and Missouri? Texas and Tennessee lean R but early numbers in Texas are interesting... not really indicative of anything... but interesting.

Momentum this week will decide the Senate. Still a 52-48 scenario the R way and a 51-49 for the D's. The map is super favorable to the GOP this cycle in the Senate. 2020... not so much.ND won’t be blue I can pretty much promise you that.

[elysiantraveller]

ND won’t be blue I can pretty much promise you that.

Yeah... I would agree with you but Heitkamp has prevailed before when all indicators are a loss. Same with McCaskill in Missouri who has made some sort blood oath to Cthulhu to keep winning that seat.

[classhandicapper]

Fantastic Dan,

Obviously, my post was hyperbole, but it's making an accurate point.

Polling data consistently underestimates people voting for the republicans in part because conservatives are demonized by the media. People do not want to admit they agree with things like securing the border. They could have 5 legitimate economic, security, and social service reasons for feeling that way, but the only reason they will be associated with by the media and democrats is racism. So they shut their mouths and vote for what they believe in and say something else to pollsters.

[chadk66]

Yeah... I would agree with you but Heitkamp has prevailed before when all indicators are a loss. Same with McCaskill in Missouri who has made some sort blood oath to Cthulhu to keep winning that seat.she has an outside shot until she exploited this sexual assault victims. That was the end. The amount of people that have publically said they were going to vote for her but now aren’t going to is pretty large. And last time she won by the skin of her teeth. This latest debacle and her voting against the wishes of her constituents sealed her fate. She was down 13 points before her last debacle.

[PaceAdvantage]

https://i.imgur.com/qCbR9GF.jpgYou guys are f_in relentless with these things...but I'm starting to like them...maybe I won't shut down off-topic after all...or maybe I'm just trolling.

[Andy Asaro]

Republicans are a lock to improve their numbers in the Senate. In the house not so much but I wouldn't bet the Dems take it either.

[FantasticDan]

You guys are f_in relentless with these things...but I'm starting to like them...

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

https://media.giphy.com/media/l1KVajXAUgp05cfiU/giphy.gif

[Tom]

Hey Dan, how much did you win on the 2016 election? :pound::pound::pound:

BTW, I gotta look for the thread we had that night....your were particularly funny that night - in your pain and disbelief. :lol::lol::lol:

Something like "WTF? She's not taking ANY swing states!" :lol::lol::lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

https://media.giphy.com/media/l1KVajXAUgp05cfiU/giphy.gifThis is a good one...and I look much better as a woman...:pound:

[FantasticDan]

Hey Dan, how much did you win on the 2016 election? :pound::pound::pound:

BTW, I gotta look for the thread we had that night....your were particularly funny that night - in your pain and disbelief. :lol::lol::lol:

Something like "WTF? She's not taking ANY swing states!" :lol::lol::lol:

Umm.. okay..?

Not out of left field or anything..

[chadk66]

The whole democratic party and it's underlings will all be on suicide watch after next tuesday I'm afraid.

[classhandicapper]

The whole democratic party and it's underlings will all be on suicide watch after next tuesday I'm afraid.

That would be a mental health improvement for some. At least they would be in touch with reality enough to be depressed.

[ElKabong]

Democrats +35-40 in the House.

Senate is still a momentum thing... NV is going Blue. Arizona going Blue. North Dakota and Missouri? Texas and Tennessee lean R but early numbers in Texas are interesting... not really indicative of anything... but interesting.



Cruz is over 50% now in most polling. Why is that "not indicative of anything"..?

Beta has no legitimate path to 50%, the populace here has pretty much made their choices. Not much chance of stealing votes,... At least legally

The House otoh is another matter, but I just went to RCP and the dems don't have this thing locked up by any means. Many close races even in Cali. Clicking on the toss ups I don't see how, with the momentum turning red lately, one can say the house is a lock for Blue. It's competitive, dems likely pick up a lot, but it looks pretty tight right now.

[elysiantraveller]

Cruz is over 50% now in most polling. Why is that "not indicative of anything"..?:1:

Beta has no legitimate path to 50%, the populace here has pretty much made their choices. Not much chance of stealing votes,... At least legally:2:

The House otoh is another matter, but I just went to RCP and the dems don't have this thing locked up by any means. Many close races even in Cali. Clicking on the toss ups I don't see how, with the momentum turning red lately, one can say the house is a lock for Blue. It's competitive, dems likely pick up a lot, but it looks pretty tight right now.:3:

:1: - I'm talking about EV numbers not polls where Beto has actually pulled closer to MOE again. EV numbers are just showing insane turnout with crazy high numbers in certain demographics not normally seen... especially in a midterm. EV numbers though are also notoriously bad at giving any real insight.

:2: - Again I've never once said he would win... He's going to make this much closer than it should be at the very least though. He's a "good" candidate and Cruz is a lizard person.

:3: - I threw out a number range... what's yours? GCB is swinging back to the D's and the Presidents Approval rating is trending back down.

[ElKabong]

:2: is your opinion. Beta was beaten in the debates. He had his chance, couldn't cash in. Cruz is better for Texas, other than liberals, everyone here can see it.

Beta should have stayed away from the comment about how he's very open to impeaching trump. Dumb move. Our economy here is STRONG. Cruz is running on 'are you better off now than you were two years ago' and the answer is easy. Beta otoh is coming off as a buffoon.

Skateboard Beta, wasted his shot. Should have taken the Collin Allred approach but he didn't.

[ElKabong]

To ely's request on a number range, again, I don't know. These things are really close. I'm a conservative and cautious bettor (physicality first and foremost, need a big standout for me to bet) so it's not my nature to throw shit on the wall and see what sticks.

Plus I can't wait to see if schumer and Feinstein come up with another doozy of a plan to undermine those terrible republicans. They're so really awesome at those late in the game surprises ! Wink wink

[elysiantraveller]

:2: is your opinion. Beta was beaten in the debates. He had his chance, couldn't cash in. Cruz is better for Texas, other than liberals, everyone here can see it.

Beta should have stayed away from the comment about how he's very open to impeaching trump. Dumb move. Our economy here is STRONG. Cruz is running on 'are you better off now than you were two years ago' and the answer is easy. Beta otoh is coming off as a buffoon.

Skateboard Beta, wasted his shot. Should have taken the Collin Allred approach but he didn't.

I could say "your opinion" to that as well.

If you don't think Beto has a lot of appeal you are conveniently ignoring a lot of polls and only looking at the ones that support your claim. Politically I don't like him at all but he's certainly a better "candidate" than Cruz.

Cruz is very unlikeable... pull up GOP primary threads on here... look up GOP peer comments on him.

That doesn't mean he might not Cruz, see what I did there, to a 6 or 7 point win but its also possible Beto, who is within a point or so of the MOE, could scratch a W. The EV numbers though are very interesting and they are going to break one way or another... that will determine who is the Senator in Texas. They're Huge.

[chadk66]

Based on how inaccurate the polls have been any republican within 5 points now will probably win

[elysiantraveller]

Early Prediction:

235 - 200: D+40

50 - 50: NV and AZ go D, R's Take ND

26 - 24: D

[ElKabong]

I could say "your opinion" to that as well.

If you don't think Beto has a lot of appeal you are conveniently ignoring a lot of polls and only looking at the ones that support your claim.

Wrong, again. I live here. I have a better pulse on things than you when it comes to Texas politics. I see a lot of people each and every day thru work and thru socializing

The one thing that scares off some pubbies is voter fraud. Three people have already been arrested at polling places in Dallas county during early voting (one of which was at my polling place) for voter harassment. You can google it , Dallas morning news. I believe it was in the Sunday edition. I'm going to bed, don't have time to dig. One in Richardson, one in mesquite, don't recall the third location.

Again, this is not from listening to polls. It's talking to people, seeingREAL news, living here for awhile. Beta can't win straight up. Truth.

[Buckeye]

I'll take Enable in the Turf.

[ElKabong]

I had chicken spaghetti for dinner

[Buckeye]

Very funny.

Ha Ha.

Guess that's why they say Kabong!

[ElKabong]

Its late. Nice to be able to poke some fun around here without hurting somebody's feelings :)

[chadk66]

Dem's probably going to drop another senate seat.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-testers-campaign-takes-a-hit-after-shady-mailer-prompts-libertarian-to-drop-out-back-gop-candidate

[ElKabong]

Looks like democrats in Montana are pulling dirty tricks like they are in Texas. GOP filed a lawsuit here in relation to likely fraudulent mail in ballots this week.

[elysiantraveller]

This is some of that crazy data from Texas I'm talking about... Like I said nobody looks at EV data in their metrics because its too risky... but its certainly interesting data.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1058173446318948352

[ElKabong]

Voters, or registered voters? All I've seen in lines here are 50+. Same in Collin County where my brother and a few cousins live.

[elysiantraveller]

Voters, or registered voters? All I've seen in lines here are 50+. Same in Collin County where my brother and a few cousins live.

That's votes cast in the EV.

Confirmed and checked off of registration rolls.

Like I said assume with caution it means anything but the metrics are huge and the demographics different this cycle.

It's just going to be interesting data until Tuesday.

[elysiantraveller]

Nevada is over as Rosen will be the next Senator there defeating Heller.

Sinema looks good in Arizona.

In Texas the under 30 vote is over 400% larger than 2014 and in Tennessee with the aid of Taylor Swift at 700%+ increase. These are still definitely Lean R but those numbers are crazy large.

Same with Georgia.

Always be cautious with EV numbers but the metrics point to a different electorate and the size of the blue wave will be determined by the independent voter break.

[lamboguy]

he has worked harder than anyone before him to motivate people to show up and vote. this is going to be the highest voter participation for a midterm election ever. and second is not even close.

i think this is great news that so many people are interested in these races.

[lamboguy]

republicans to control senate -475

democrats to control senate +325

republicans to control house +225

democrats to control house -300