the theory behind the jackpot pick 6....

[dilanesp]

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-19/worsening-odds-lead-to-bigger-lottery-jackpots?__twitter_impression=true

[spiketoo]

Hey Capt. Obvious, everybody in this forum knows the theory behind the P6 jackpot bet. Tho with everything in life, there's 'theory vs application'. Let me enlighten you based on this utterly useless link (I mean, since I'm here and all)...

- The lottery increased the possible numbers required to win by increasing the field. You can still box all if you want in the P6 (and at BEL they've actually reduced the field at times :) )

- The lottery will pay all who hit. That is the essence of the P6 bet - they only pay a sole winner.

- The lottery increased the price of a bet. The P6 was actually reduced.

- The lottery is solely based on what most refer to as 'luck' as they use a RNG to produce their winning numbers. I know at certain times most of use here think racing does the same for the P6, but I think for the most part we cling dearly to the 'theory' that the 'application' of some type of 'skill' is required here (tho as always, YMMV). :bang::bang::bang:

- And now the main diff which is what sours me on this bet to no end. The lottery allegedly increased some instances of smaller prizes rewarded. The P6 bet actually DECREASED all preceding consols by 50% in most cases to fund this jackpot! I live on consols - but not anymore at tracks that offer this bet. I shun them like SUF runners making a start at BEL (hey, wasn't there a $53 winner yesterday???).

So in theory, just as a person running for an elected office is a politician, the D or R (or I) next to their name alerts you that there will be differences in their application of how they proceed in office (that's not political is it PA?).

Perhaps PA can start a 'TIL' forum for the enlightened souls who care to post something that all of us are aware of.

[098poi]

Spike it sounds like you have a losing lottery ticket stuck up your ass. You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster. :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster. :rolleyes:But you would ruin a lot of people's lives if you made them stop doing that...

A choice few LIVE for just that sort of thing on here...

[Tom]

Spike it sounds like you have a losing lottery ticket stuck up your ass. You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster. :rolleyes:

You just gave me a visual I can't get rid off - a lotto ticket coming out of.......:eek: Thanks for that!

[spiketoo]

I'm surmising most everyone knew that when (I think) GP instituted this bet, it was to create a lottery-type jackpot albeit on the back of current churn (what else is new?). The OP decided to post the obvious just because the lottery itself is getting some attention due to its record jackpot. What's the point of posting the obvious that most everyone here already is aware of?

Is the quinella a bad bet?

[Robert Fischer]

But you would ruin a lot of people's lives if you made them stop doing that...

A choice few LIVE for just that sort of thing on here...

:pound: Life itself, with all of it's generous offerings of adversity and reward...

yah know? - Life's SIGNIFICANT concerns??

Is somehow not enough for some people, who find they must stir up s̶h̶ Drama to entertain themselves...

I've dated a few (too many!) while wallowing in the mire.

They seem to populate rush hour traffic and walmart super-centers...

My theory is that these are brilliant minds who see the big picture. They're simply bored with the whole thing... :rolleyes:

[dilanesp]

The reason I posted the OP is to point out something very simple- gambling markets aren't full of rational economic actors. It is possible for tracks to make more money by making a bet worse for patrons.

So many people here assume that is never true.

[Jeff P]

Despite all the headlines created by Mega Millions and Powerball jackpot games --

A chart on p23 of the California Lottery 2016-2017 Annual Report (https://static.www.calottery.com/~/media/Publications/Financial_Reports/2016-17%20CSL%20Comprehensive%20Annual%20Financial%20Re port%20Final.pdf) shows that Scratchers Tickets (not giant jackpot games) accounted for 73.4% of total lottery sales in California during the most recent fiscal year.

[Jeff P]

The analysis on p24 of the California Lottery 2016-2017 Annual Report (https://static.www.calottery.com/~/media/Publications/Financial_Reports/2016-17%20CSL%20Comprehensive%20Annual%20Financial%20Re port%20Final.pdf) shows that year over year Lotto sales were down 22% while year over year Scratchers ticket sales were up 5%.

Lottery operating revenue decreased $42.1 million from the previous fiscal year. This decrease is largely due to a decrease in Powerball and Mega Millions sales because the previous year featured a record-breaking $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot which drove up sales. In fiscal year 2016-17, Scratchers sales increased $224.2 million or 5.2 percent due to the continued popularity of $10 and $20 price-point games offering large prize payouts.

While it's true that giant jackpots do drive sales --

It's also true that Scratchers tickets are the largest single segment of their business.

23276

[dilanesp]

Scratchers are the preferred product for compulsive gamblers, because you don't have to wait to find out if you won. They are like slot machines in a casino.

[098poi]

You just gave me a visual I can't get rid off - a lotto ticket coming out of.......:eek: Thanks for that!

Sorry about that!

[Tom]

Sorry about that!

I'm just glad it wasn't a scratcher!

[Buckeye]

I bought my ticket.

Cost me $2

and I can afford that.

(I will not tell which numbers I played, sorry.)

[fellowmen]

The reason I posted the OP is to point out something very simple- gambling markets aren't full of rational economic actors. It is possible for tracks to make more money by making a bet worse for patrons.

So many people here assume that is never true.

Don't overlook the inherent flaw built into this exotic wager being if you are the only ticket remaining going into the last leg and you have multiple numbers one being the betting favorite and one of your other numbers scratch the track replaces your scatched horse with the favorite it wins and you have 2 winning tickets and the jackpot isnt awarded. That is totally unfair. They should change that rule. But they dont care enough about their patrons to do anything about it.

[Jeff P]

Scratchers are the preferred product for compulsive gamblers, because you don't have to wait to find out if you won. They are like slot machines in a casino.

Believe it or not scratchers players are price sensitive.

More than 30 years of real world case history exists (dating back to the 1980's when Massachusetts became the first state lottery to try it) that shows state after state engineering turnarounds for their state lotteries by increasing the prize payout percentages (lower takeout) of their scratchers games.

--California:
AB142, a bill authorizing the CA Lottery to LOWER the Takeout on Scratchers Games, was signed into law in 2010 by CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Unlike horse racing (which took the opposite approach and raised racing takeout with SB1072) the CA Lottery has been able to leverage LOWER TAKEOUT to drive brand recognition and generate significant increases in both sales and total revenue for Education.

Here's a quote from Linh Nguyen, Acting Director, California Lottery when asked how AB 142 enabled the California Lottery to generate an increase in revenue flowing to state coffers:
http://www.publicgaming.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9590:public-gamin

"Increasing the prize payout percentage improves the product's value to the consumer, provides us with a powerful message that gets consumer attention, and gives us a tool to drive sales and profits.

A relatively small increase in prize payout percentage can be leveraged into a much more significant increase in top-line sales.

Although the increase in prize payout percentage leaves a smaller percentage to be transferred to education, the total dollars going to our beneficiary goes up. And at the end of the day, you can spend a dollar, but you can't spend a percentage. So these changes have resulted in increased funding to education and that's what our constituents care most about and the reason the Lottery was created in 1984."



FACT SHEET
Profit Optimization for Georgia Education
THE IMPACT OF PRIZE PAYOUTS ON RETURNS TO EDUCATION:
https://gas-cdn.lotteryservices.com/content/dam/portal/pdfs/georgia-benefits/profit-optimization.pdf

• The best performing lotteries in the United States have instant prize payouts between 65% and 76%. The key to the success of these games with consumers is the frequency of winning prizes.
• Out of 44 lotteries in the U.S., Georgia is 2nd in per capita instant sales, with an instant prize payout percentage of 71.3% in FY14. It is 2nd in per capita returns to beneficiaries from instant games among all leading U.S. lotteries. Only Massachusetts has higher per capita sales of instant tickets, and they have the highest instant prize payout at 76%. They also have the highest per capita return to beneficiaries.

1. Sales and profits increase significantly for every state that has raised payouts.
• Virtually every lottery has implemented higher prize payouts in their instant games than in their online (draw) games. And every time, without exception, raising the payout has increased sales and actual dollar returns to beneficiaries.

[dilanesp]

Believe it or not scratchers players are price sensitive.

More than 30 years of real world case history exists (dating back to the 1980's when Massachusetts became the first state lottery to try it) that shows state after state engineering turnarounds for their state lotteries by increasing the prize payout percentages (lower takeout) of their scratchers games.

--California:
AB142, a bill authorizing the CA Lottery to LOWER the Takeout on Scratchers Games, was signed into law in 2010 by CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Unlike horse racing (which took the opposite approach and raised racing takeout with SB1072) the CA Lottery has been able to leverage LOWER TAKEOUT to drive brand recognition and generate significant increases in both sales and total revenue for Education.

Here's a quote from Linh Nguyen, Acting Director, California Lottery when asked how AB 142 enabled the California Lottery to generate an increase in revenue flowing to state coffers:
http://www.publicgaming.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9590:public-gamin





FACT SHEET
Profit Optimization for Georgia Education
THE IMPACT OF PRIZE PAYOUTS ON RETURNS TO EDUCATION:
https://gas-cdn.lotteryservices.com/content/dam/portal/pdfs/georgia-benefits/profit-optimization.pdf

You are ignoring an incredibly basic issue, which is where the two games' takeouts sat on the demand curve.

The fact that the lottery correctly lowered a 50 percent takeout does not prove anything about a 20 percent takeout.

[Jeff P]

It shows that the closer you get to the optimal price point (which varies by game or wager type) the better your performance - and the greater your total gross profits will be.

Can we at least agree on that?


-jp

.

[kingfin66]

I bought my ticket.

Cost me $2

and I can afford that.

(I will not tell which numbers I played, sorry.)

Yeah, heaven forbid that any of us would ride coattails on your action. :lol: