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View Full Version : Is win betting dead?


Valuist
09-13-2004, 09:35 AM
It might not be dead but its getting there. The days of watching the tote and going to the window to bet perceived value have dwindled considerably. Ontrack, expect to get shut out if you go to a teller window less than 5 minutes to post. You can wait longer on the automated machines but getting shut out is still a possibility there. You can try phoning in a wager to an account at the last minute but there's a good chance you'll get put on hold. Bet online and hope who's taking your wagers has a strong enough server not to get overloaded 1 minute before a big race. Odds change so much in the last 2 minutes (and even after the race goes off) a bettor only has a general idea of what a horse will pay. We all wanted full card simulcasting and account wagering. This is the downside of it.

alysheba88
09-13-2004, 09:44 AM
Win betting is alive and well.

Was at Belmont Saturday, made six win bets for the day, all with three minutes to post or less. Using machines

Sure there are some odds drops but its fairly easy to anticipate them.

Would also say that it sounds like you are a value player like me (the waiting to place your bet till the end). We are in the distinct minority (thank god). Most will just try to pick winners without regard for value or time.

Also, you have to stereotype people at the windows and machines so you dont get stuck behind the serial dollar boxers:)

andicap
09-13-2004, 10:06 AM
also at Belmont Saturday and was able to walk to a machine with 1 minute to post. It gets hairy if you get stuck behind some idiot who

a) doesn't know what t hey're doing
b) is betting every combo in the race
c) decides to handicap the race AT the SAM machine.

Yes, being able to ID those types before you get on line is crucial.


BTW, NYRA has changed its definition of "post time."
I recall when "Post time" meant you had another minute to bet that they had just arrived at the gate and were starting to load.

Now, post time means you have about 15 seconds to finish up or you're toast!!

alysheba88
09-13-2004, 10:36 AM
The serial dollar boxer is a late bettor's worst enemy! That and the "guess its now time to handicap at the machine with one minute to post" guy

CapperLou
09-13-2004, 10:55 AM
We have plenty of these types at CRC and the ones who handicap at the windows.

You have to size them up and know where to go to the windows to avoid them "most of the time."

It is a serious problem to say the least!!!!! I have one mutuel clerk who I've known a long time and he only works part time now, but when he's there--he helps me--I call the number I want and he knows the amount and will punch it in for me even when there is a line and I pay him as soon as my turn comes in line or once the race goes if necessary when it's busy on weekends.

It is just awful when these puny bettors are fumbling around at the window with the form or program and are clueless and still bet anything and everything sometimes--amazing!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Don't forget it's these idiots who make it possible for us to win--remember they are playing against us!!!!

Buddha
09-13-2004, 12:15 PM
Yea, the Serial Boxers and handicappers are a plenty at mountaineer also. THere are ones that you know you cant get behind or you wont get a bet in.

the ones that i also hate are the ones that go to the windows and have to fumble all around their pockets/wallet/purse and find their money after they have taken 2 minutes to call out all their bets.

Milleruszk
09-13-2004, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by CapperLou
We have plenty of these types at CRC and the ones who handicap at the windows.

You have to size them up and know where to go to the windows to avoid them "most of the time."

It is just awful when these puny bettors are fumbling around at the window with the form or program and are clueless and still bet anything and everything sometimes--amazing!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Don't forget it's these idiots who make it possible for us to win--remember they are playing against us!!!!

Lou,

At Saratoga I actually had someone on the line next to me ask if the race was still on the grass (it wasn't). Another one was citing the virtues of a horse that he was going to bet. Trouble was his choice had been scratched. Thank God for people like that!

Tom

ratpack
09-13-2004, 02:14 PM
I am an All in One user and the problem of the Hub money coming in after the gates are open continues to be a problem.

One way that I try to compensate for that is require an Extra edge in the betting. With AIO if the Fair odds are 5-2 I use to require 3-1, now I require 7-2.

They need to get this Hub money sorted out because it really is a problem. Not sure if you can do anything with off shore books but they should be able to do something about the simulcast facilities in the US.

andicap
09-13-2004, 02:27 PM
That's why I lean toward higher odds horses, but I still get burnt.
I've bet at 1 minute to post on a 4-1 shot and seen it go off at 5-2 at NYRA more than once.

BUt exotics are often worse. $40 exactas became $27 because people with programs -- arbitrargers really -- pounce on the value exactas.

What to do? I'm not sure but I'm checking my records after a poor week at Saratoga to see what would have been a profitable betting experience given I had a number of live horses.

(One day it was a succession of favorites. I'll bet some chalk over longshots but when its 1-2, 2-1 and 1-3 all day in terms of odds, what the hell can you do unless you play like Karlskorner and Ranchest and forget about value.

I dont have enough time to handicap each race, research the trainers and jockeys on my circuit and keep copious notes on track conditions, etc. to play like that.
I did once when I was single and without girl friend (sigh -- too often it seemed), and it was fun in an era of no simulcasting when I lived in NYC and didn't care for the club scene.

I watched the nightly show and kept trip notes, kept records of longshot moves by trainers, key races, careful estimates of biases. One day I hit a conso pik 6 on one ticket! (OK there were almost all chalk, but still....).

Of course I don't wish to be single and childless again so there it is...
I'll have to wait for retirement !!!!!


:D

CapperLou
09-13-2004, 02:56 PM
A great common sense and humorous post---thx!!!!!

ENJOY YOURSELF----that's all that matters!!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

bobbyb
09-13-2004, 04:21 PM
CapperLou (you'll love this)

Not ONLY the Serial Window Cappers........

90% of my wagers are WIN only, so I do really rely on as close to post time odds as possible.
I use to play at a Casino (20 min from Home), weekends only. Staff/Signal was supplied by a Major Track; The Casino was managed by a Corp. that also manages a Race Track; Reasonably large weekend handle - 75+ players (of all sorts) each weekend day - WITH 2 TELLERS AND ONE SAM Machine - that's with 5 tracks going from noon to midnight (same 2 Tellers).

I agree with Valuist's post - Trying to get a WIN Bet or any BET in with 3 minutes to post was almost impossible - especially when one of the Tellers took a break (not that I'm denying them one, but....really with minutes to post!!). Then you have the window cappers, and those who wager more than what they $ have in their pockets. This nonsense had been going on for almost 2 years, and as a group, we did complain to no avail.
Managements point of view: They provide the room at great cost (?), Signal, and the opportunity to offer something different to people who do not play slots/tables (??); and furthermore, they said their wasn't enough revenue to warrant additional staff (???) Don't know where that came from since over the 2 years I had attended, I met some very Heavy WIN only Bettors, who were regulars on weekends. Go Figure.............

Steve Fierro sure did hit the nail on the head - Bottom Line -"Know where to Play"!!

My solution was to account wager from home - so far so good - but I sure do miss the friendships I developed. I really hate to bash, but for takeout% of every dollar I wager I expect better.

bobby

ps: This is just my second post so I hope I got the size/font/color right. I really enjoy my time at PA!!

bettheoverlay
09-13-2004, 07:11 PM
I never place my win bets til the horses start going in the gate. At the Philly Park Turf Clubs you can open a day account, have your "Tiny Tim" betting terminal at your table, with 2 TVs per table, and you never have to worry about standing in line again.

If I didn't place win bets I would be lucky to have more than a handful of winning days per year with exotics. Of course if you hit a big one......

CapperLou
09-14-2004, 12:26 AM
Forgot to mention about exactas!!!!

It is becoming very difficult to get value at New York circuit & Southern Cal also. Too many smart players and the offshore gimmicks etc.

I have found in the past few years that exactas have had better value at APX & sometimes DEL. If you dare to play MNR--which I do--you will find exactas there to be out of sight when you have value plays on winner's odds. I cannot believe some of the exacta prices I have gotten at MNR this past summer.

Do some research if you have files and you might be pleasantly surprised!!!

Hope this helps you!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. I have had another banner meet at Arlington whereas ELP got so difficult--I quit playing it weeks ago before the meeting ended. Too many shippers, drugs allowed there and Bejarano owns that track--have not seen anything like it in recent years!!
So---it's on my sh-t list and won't get my action anymore including next year!!!! I'll wait for Churchill & Keeneland there.

kingfin66
09-14-2004, 01:14 AM
I think that win betting remains the bread and butter of horse racing. For me, win betting finances the exotics (lately the P3). I don't worry too much about the changing odds. It seems to be more of a phenomena affecting shorter priced horses. Also, I play the larger tracks where the pools don't seem to be affected as much by late money coming in. I'm usually looking for 5/1 and up for my win bets and exotic keys. I insist on getting both value and price.

You guys should come out to Washington and Emerald Downs sometime. What is the "line" thing you're all talking about? I don't think I've ever seen one there.

thelyingthief
09-14-2004, 04:09 AM
Yes, win-betting is dead.

Now everybody is practicing Lose-Betting. Apparently this form of wagering is sweeping the handicapping nation.

cj
09-14-2004, 05:52 AM
ITP,

How is this "sweeping the nation?" At least 95% of the people playing will lose, and its always been this way.

andicap
09-14-2004, 10:43 AM
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
ITP,

How is this "sweeping the nation?" At least 95% of the people playing will lose, and its always been this way.

My guess is this was a tongue in cheek answer....

Steve 'StatMan'
09-14-2004, 10:54 AM
Yes, most likely tounge in cheek. Although laying horse in betting exchanges (betting to lose by offering win odds to others) has gained popularity in the U.K.

thoroughbred
09-15-2004, 01:04 AM
If you see someone at the window leaning on his elbows, it's a sure sign he will be there awhile. Move to another window.

InsideThePylons-MW
09-15-2004, 03:33 AM
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
ITP,
How is this "sweeping the nation?" At least 95% of the people playing will lose, and its always been this way.

cjm,

Nice try.

I am not thelyinthief, nor do I know who he is. I can understand though how you might come to that conclusion.

I am sure you can ask PA to track IP's or some other hi-tech way of figuring it out.

After reading his posts, one thing is crystal clear......he forgot more about computers and software last night sleeping than I will ever know in my lifetime. The only thing I know about computers is watching tote/video feeds, making bets, printing forms/programs and occasionally reading the odd message board.

InsideThePylons-MW
09-15-2004, 03:44 AM
Oh my!

Another shocking tell tale sign we are not the same.

If I ever even thought about purchasing the 2004 DRF Expo DVD (or one of the books), I would stick a gun in the back of my throat and pull the trigger immediately.

If you gave me the ultimatum of either attending the DRF Expo or spending the week incarcerated in Attica, I would kindly ask that you put money in my commisary account.

Equineer
09-15-2004, 05:04 AM
ITP,

There's an old Monty Python skit where they try to cure stuttering by repeating, "Nudge, nudge... nudge a nosy non-com."

Never could get Brit humor! ;)

cj
09-15-2004, 05:35 AM
Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
cjm,

Nice try.



It was an innocent typo, later pointed out to me in an email from melman. Nothing was intended or purposely implied.