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View Full Version : 10/6/18: R10 Keeneland G1 Shadwell Turf Mile


Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 08:43 AM
Second day of the Keeneland fall meet, and they are cranking out a pretty solid card of 11 races with 117 entrants (115 to hopefully run with 2 AEs) and 5 graded stakes races. The 5 graded stakes races have a P5 in which there are at least 10 entered in each leg and 3 of the races on turf. :headbanger:
The highlight of the day is the 10th with the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile with 16 entrants into a 14 horse field.


:1: Next Shares: A solid 5YO in the prime of his career seems to be a bit short of a number of others. They have definitely tried him at a mile on turf and he is a mere 1 for 8 in that venture. A definite consideration for exotics, but very difficult to see him beating everybody in this one.


:2: Divisidero: A solid stakes level horse that has pocketed over $1.3 million in his 21 race career. He beat Synchrony 3 back, and ran a very nice 4th in this very race last year. He may only be 2 for 12 in the last 2 years, but always has to be considered a contender.



:3: Great Wide Open: Connections are taking a shot here after his nice 2nd last out in the Tourister Mile at Kentucky Downs. Looks to be in over his head as his previous races in graded stakes company aren't anything to write home about. Tough to see.



:4: Imperative: Little doubt his form is on serious decline, and he is now being pointed back to turf. Very hard to make a case for this guy in here among some of the very best American turf horses.


:5: Heart to Heart: His name says it all, and he brings it just about every time. His Fourstar Dave wasn't real impressive, but this guy is undoubtedly one of the very serious contenders in this field. He has 7 career wins at a mile on turf, including the G1 Makers Mile on this very course back in April. He is 5 for 6 in the Exacta at Keeneland, and nobody will be shocked if he makes it 6 for 7.



:6: Synchrony: Very much in his prime, and his last race at Monmouth may well have been his career best. He has hit the board in 9 straight races including wins in 4 of his last 6. However, this will arguably be the toughest field he has ever faced. Definitely deserving of a chance, and we'll see how he fits among these today. A must consideration in exotics at the very least.


:7: Qurbaan: That was a pretty impressive race last out coming off a near year layoff, hitting the gate at the start, and rallying to get the win over a solid field at Saratoga. In his 2nd career race in the states he'll look to take on an even better overall field while getting the HOFer in Mike Smith on his back. Would be no surprise if this guy crosses the finish line first.


:8: Multiplier: The turf 'experiment' continues, and the connections aren't backing down from competition. While he is running decent enough, he hasn't been much of a threat to win in any of his last 4 turf races. Can't see him getting the lead and wiring this field with other quality front end legit G1 turf horses in here, and even harder seeing him passing a number of these to even hit the board.



:9: Analyze It: The lone 3YO in the race has an extremely solid foundation under him, and has never finished out of the exacta in his 6 career starts. However, this will be his first crack at elders, so we'll see what he really has today against this bunch. May well be the post time favorite, and is deserving of respect.



:10: Voodoo Song: Little doubt that he'll look to get to the front and wall everybody off. The 8.5 furlongs has proven to be just too much for him and he is now at his most comfortable turf mile which he is 3 for 4 lifetime. Major contender that has the ability to wire this field.


:11: Almanaar: Chad Brown/Javier Castellano. Not sure I need to go much further for a top end turf horse in the states. Legit contender looking for his 2nd G1 turf score in his last 4 races.


:12: Mr. Misunderstood: he has ran against a number of others in here in some big races, and always seems to come up a bit short. Now he gets them on his terms of a mile on the green stuff in which he sports a 5 for 7 career record. Will the distance be his calling card to turn the tables on a number of rivals today? Geroux on board, who is arguably the best turf rider on this course could also be a factor. Very interesting horse at some likely odds.


:13: Big Score: He has piled up a lot of 2nds and 3rds over the past two years in this type of company. Always an excuse, always a bridesmaid. He'll need a fast pace up front, and there is some front-running speed signed on here. He'll be a massive number, and should be considered for exotics. If the pieces fall right in a big field, he could be the bomber to light up the tote board.



:14: Bound for Nowhere: Lightly raced 4YO has done a lot of travelling while also being 2 for 2 at this very venue. 5 for 8 lifetime, and he has beat and ran against some very good horses. Post is a bit troublesome as there isn't much ground for him into the 1st turn to get out in front of a large number of others. Tough call, as he could be out of the race 150 yards in.



:15::16: AEs: Of then entries, :15: Zulu Alpha looks to have the better chance. Could be an interesting exotic add. :16: Holiday Stone looks to be up against it among these.

jimmyb
10-06-2018, 12:20 PM
2,6,10,13 tri box

#10,#13 exacta box

#13, win and place

#10, win

Redboard
10-06-2018, 12:34 PM
Looks like a lot of speed for a turf race, including the 3, 5, 9 and 10. . We’ll have to see how the earlier races play out. If so, I love the late-kicking :7: Qurbann. You just don’t win a G2 at the SPA, just off the boat. Probably be the PT favorite, when it’s all said and done.

W: :7: , :11:
EX: :7: , :11: , / :12: , :14:
TRI: :7: , :11: , / :7: , :11: , / :12: , :14: , :6: , :9:

Tom
10-06-2018, 03:07 PM
:7::6::11:

CheckMark
10-06-2018, 03:16 PM
:10: :11: :9: :2:

Andy Asaro
10-06-2018, 04:01 PM
:7::11::12: for me. GL

Ocala Mike
10-06-2018, 04:10 PM
:6::11::12::14:

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 04:18 PM
Been some great racing thus far at Keeneland today.



This is great stuff.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 05:21 PM
70/1 just rolled home in the last.



This will be really interesting.

jay68802
10-06-2018, 05:40 PM
Shadwell Mile


:5: Heart to Heart

:10: Voodoo Song

098poi
10-06-2018, 05:41 PM
$5 Exacta


:6:, :12: / :1:, :6:, :11:, :12:, :13: = $40

VigorsTheGrey
10-06-2018, 05:41 PM
Shadwell Mile


:5: Heart to Heart

:10: Voodoo Song

If Heart to Heart doesn’t make the lead, she doesn’t win...and Voodoo Song makes the lead...

cj
10-06-2018, 05:45 PM
If Heart to Heart doesn’t make the lead, she doesn’t win...and Voodoo Song makes the lead...

He.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 05:47 PM
W: :12::13:
EX: :6::7::12::13:
Tri: :12::13:/:7::12::13:/All
Super: :12::13:/:12::13:/All/All

tophatmert
10-06-2018, 05:49 PM
:1::2::6::11:exacta box, more with :11:,w/p:1:

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 05:57 PM
Was that really :1::3::7:?

Tom
10-06-2018, 06:00 PM
Well, the key to winning at KEE seems to be throw about the top 8 favorites,and the top 8 speed figs.:lol:

Congrats you who picked the 1 in this one.

098poi
10-06-2018, 06:02 PM
Was that really :1::3::7:?


Actually :1::3::7::9: :eek::eek:

VigorsTheGrey
10-06-2018, 06:02 PM
He.
Well he made the lead and still lost...you were right..nice call on the :1:...closers ruled.

098poi
10-06-2018, 06:03 PM
:1::2::6::11:exacta box, more with :11:,w/p:1:


:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Someday Silent
10-06-2018, 09:03 PM
I'm glad I didn't bet this race afterall. Sometimes you just gotta sit back and enjoy the show.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 09:07 PM
I'm glad I didn't bet this race afterall. Sometimes you just gotta sit back and enjoy the show.


I bet chaos. Just not the right chaos.



I love identifying chaos races and taking a swing with reasonable intellect.

GMB@BP
10-06-2018, 09:34 PM
A socal turf horse shipped and won a grade 1 turf race....flabbergasted

Andy Asaro
10-06-2018, 09:37 PM
:7::11::12: for me. GL

https://twitter.com/horseflynawall/status/1048712149474762752

Lemon Drop Husker
10-06-2018, 09:57 PM
A socal turf horse shipped and won a grade 1 turf race....flabbergasted


As is everybody.


Keeneland is a tough meet.

Mulerider
10-06-2018, 11:05 PM
As is everybody.


Keeneland is a tough meet.

The :1: was my backup pick in two tournaments.

Of course he won. It was inevitable.

My primary pick didn't hit the board.

Spalding No!
10-06-2018, 11:52 PM
A socal turf horse shipped and won a grade 1 turf race....flabbergasted
The horse has been in Kentucky for over a month, never went back to CA after the KD race.

You should be more flabbergasted that he was a former East coast horse that shipped to CA at the beginning of the year and couldn't win a race.

ReplayRandall
10-07-2018, 12:05 AM
The horse has been in Kentucky for over a month, never went back to CA after the KD race.

You should be more flabbergasted that he was a former East coast horse that shipped to CA at the beginning of the year and couldn't win a race.


Nice perspective Spalding, 'cappers should take note of this observation....:ThmbUp:

cj
10-07-2018, 12:23 AM
Nice perspective Spalding, 'cappers should take note of this observation....:ThmbUp:

Hard to picture Euro milers not beating the east and west coast contenders this year.

GMB@BP
10-07-2018, 12:27 AM
The horse has been in Kentucky for over a month, never went back to CA after the KD race.

You should be more flabbergasted that he was a former East coast horse that shipped to CA at the beginning of the year and couldn't win a race.

good point!

ReplayRandall
10-07-2018, 12:36 AM
Hard to picture Euro milers not beating the east and west coast contenders this year.
My advice has always been to bet any and all of them at 8-1 or more. Don't be picky, they are all classy and exceptionally well bred and trained to perfection. Who can handle the travel, the climate and the Lasix is unknown, so might as well shot gun it for profit with all Euros in the BC, 8-1 minimum....

GMB@BP
10-07-2018, 12:38 AM
Hard to picture Euro milers not beating the east and west coast contenders this year.

it feels decidedly weak in all division this year on turf. Even the CB horses feel a cut below their norm.

Someday Silent
10-07-2018, 05:22 PM
I bet chaos. Just not the right chaos.



I love identifying chaos races and taking a swing with reasonable intellect.

I'm not always good at that. I just had a feeling that this wasn't going to be Heart to Heart's day, decided I wasn't inspired by the others, and took a pass.

I am kicking myself because I thought Knicks Go looked good in the post parade, but told myself he had no shot in hell. I went with Unionizer instead. Derp.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-07-2018, 05:25 PM
I'm not always good at that. I just had a feeling that this wasn't going to be Heart to Heart's day, decided I wasn't inspired by the others, and took a pass.

I am kicking myself because I thought Knicks Go looked good in the post parade, but told myself he had no shot in hell. I went with Unionizer instead. Derp.


Damn. 70/1 and he walked.



Can't remember a shot like that in which they won by ridiculous open lengths in a big race at those odds. I'm sure there is one, but that was stunning.

tophatmert
10-07-2018, 05:41 PM
IN the Spinster I'm going to play the :3:w/p and exboxes with:4::7::8::11:. I'm looking to get a ground saving trip. the distance should suit her.

Someday Silent
10-07-2018, 06:06 PM
Damn. 70/1 and he walked.



Can't remember a shot like that in which they won by ridiculous open lengths in a big race at those odds. I'm sure there is one, but that was stunning.

The closest thing I can think of is Volponi in the '02 BC Classic. He was "only" 45-1 though. Then Mine That Bird's Derby.

Lemon Drop Husker
10-07-2018, 06:12 PM
The closest thing I can think of is Volponi in the '02 BC Classic. He was "only" 45-1 though. Then Mine That Bird's Derby.


Those are the exact 2 I was kind of recalling.



40/1 and 50/1. This was 70/1. Just effing crazy. :pound:

Someday Silent
10-09-2018, 11:02 PM
Those are the exact 2 I was kind of recalling.



40/1 and 50/1. This was 70/1. Just effing crazy. :pound:
Yes, very crazy. Then again, a lot of times the odds are a reflection of people's opinions and not the ability of the horse. Knicks Go's next race will hopefully provide a clearer picture.