Breeders Cup

[chiguy]

Is this year shaping up to be less than a stellar year for the BC or am I missing something? I have to admit I don't keep up with racing as much as most of the folks here but I just don't feel the buzz.

[cj]

After this past weekend, which horse is there to really be excited about? I'd go with maybe the 2yo winners at Santa Anita and the 2yo turf filly at Belmont, not much outside of that.

[Spalding No!]

Is this year shaping up to be less than a stellar year for the BC or am I missing something? I have to admit I don't keep up with racing as much as most of the folks here but I just don't feel the buzz.

What was shaping up to be a great rendition of the Distaff has completely come undone.

Unique Bella retired. Elate injured. Abel Tasman flopped in her last. Monomoy Girl win streak snapped.

California, despite all the hype on several maiden winners during the summer, has produced the requisite dominant juveniles (Game Winner, Bellafina). Not sure if the East will produce counterparts.

The NA American turf divisions have been ho-hum all year.

[horses4courses]

What was shaping up to be a great rendition of the Distaff has completely come undone.

Unique Bella retired. Elate injured. Abel Tasman flopped in her last. Monomoy Girl win streak snapped.

California, despite all the hype on several maiden winners during the summer, has produced the requisite dominant juveniles (Game Winner, Bellafina). Not sure if the East will produce counterparts.

The NA American turf divisions have been ho-hum all year.

Another note on the Distaff.
Monomoy Girl looked like her fine year may be catching up with her in her last.
Never a good sign to see a horse veering out like that.

[Tom]

I like the new format - not a thing on Friday I give a crap about. I can kick back with a Form and 6 pack and enjoy the afternoon.
Not that there is anything on Saturday worth getting excited about.

BC has run its course. Kills far more races than provides good ones.
It was hard watching the JCGC - after so many grat renewals, that crap fest~!:pout:

[VigorsTheGrey]

I wonder if these conditions will lead to a chalkfest as well...the only consolation might be more longshots winning but maybe that won't happen either.

[Afleet]

Is this year shaping up to be less than a stellar year for the BC or am I missing something? I have to admit I don't keep up with racing as much as most of the folks here but I just don't feel the buzz.

the Euro B team should be able to fill all the tri spots in the turf

[Afleet]

Another note on the Distaff.
Monomoy Girl looked like her fine year may be catching up with her in her last.
Never a good sign to see a horse veering out like that.

I hope she makes it to the gate

[Spalding No!]

the 2yo turf filly at Belmont, not much outside of that.
Newspaperofrecord seemed too headstrong early for my liking in the Miss Grillo (didn't see her debut--maybe she was better settled there). The Glen Hill filly Summering seems more professional (though appears to dislike the whip) in terms of running style.

I'd also give another chance to Miss Technicality, who romped in her first two starts, but was bobbling early in the Miss Grillo then was parked way wide when making an eye-catching move around the far turn...

[Spalding No!]

Another note on the Distaff.
Monomoy Girl looked like her fine year may be catching up with her in her last.
Never a good sign to see a horse veering out like that.
Monomoy Girl was also getting out in the Kentucky Oaks earlier in the year, but in general, as you say, its never a good sign. She also tends to run with her head up--another sign of discomfort.

I finally watched the Cotillion for the first time and am quite flabbergasted that Monomoy Girl was DQ'd for shifting in while clear of Midnight Bisou, but survived the inquiry in the Kentucky Oaks where she made contact with Wonder Gadot multiple times and knocked her off stride for good measure.

All that aside, in addition to the Cotillion, I watched Monomoy Girl's NY races (and the Miss Grillo and Jockey Club Gold Cup) and I have to say never has there been a more shrill, forced, hyperbolic, and error-prone race caller than Larry Colmus.

[linrom1]

.....and I have to say never has there been a more shrill, forced, hyperbolic, and error-prone race caller than Larry Colmus.


I can't stand him! What a phony, theatrical major this caller is! I have to turn down the audio each time I hear a replay of NYRA stake races.

Can NYRA fire this guy...it's bad enough they card like 10, five-horse-field races each day, one has to listen to this screeching idiot. Hi Larry!

Is John Lies or Kurt Becker available? I would settle for Vic.

[the little guy]

I can't stand him! What a phony, theatrical major this caller is! I have to turn down the audio each time I hear a replay of NYRA stake races.

Can NYRA fire this guy...it's bad enough they card like 10, five-horse-field races each day, one has to listen to this screeching idiot. Hi Larry!

Is John Lies or Kurt Becker available? I would settle for Vic.

This may be the highest compliment ever paid to Larry ( John Lies and Kurt Becker on the other hand deserve better ) as you are on the wrong side of everything.

[Mailman]

I have liked Larry going back to his Suffolk days, got a laugh when he said
on the backstrech that " Gronkowski had a wall of blockers in front of him" in the JCGC.!

[GMB@BP]

This years Breeders Cup is headed to be one of the best ever, in terms of wide open races.

There are very few dominant favorites. Even a horse like Bellafina and Game Winner hardly feel dominant talents.

Should be a fun betting day. Not all that great for crowning champions but being honest the event has lost a lot the past decade.

[spiketoo]

This years Breeders Cup is headed to be one of the best ever, in terms of wide open races.

There are very few dominant favorites. Even a horse like Bellafina and Game Winner hardly feel dominant talents.

Should be a fun betting day. Not all that great for crowning champions but being honest the event has lost a lot the past decade.

THIS is what makes it a stellar BC for a gambler.

[castaway01]

I have liked Larry going back to his Suffolk days, got a laugh when he said
on the backstrech that " Gronkowski had a wall of blockers in front of him" in the JCGC.!

I like Larry too but the JCGC is not the best example of a stellar performance on his part...let's just leave it at that.

As far as the BC, I'm sure we'll see some of the usual excellent wagering opportunities, but it's definitely lacking American starpower this year.

[dilanesp]

I think if Accelerate wins the BC Classic, he will have completed an excellent year in which he dominated the handicap division in California winning all of our major races.

That will probably get him a few votes for Horse of the Year; unfortunately, a horse who is inferior to him in every possible way and who beat up on fields of mediocre 3 year olds (including one time with team tactics) has that honor sewed up.

[Redboard]

I like the way they are putting all of the 2YrOld races on Friday, although sorry to see the Juvy turf sprint back, that's a dumb race, but at least they bumped up the purse to $1M(it used to be $500k). We'll see how it goes.

Since Diversify flopped last Saturday, I don't see any "showdowns" to look forward to, just full fields running for high purses, which is all a horse player can as for. It's still the best day of the year in racing, and i'm sure all those who ripped it in this thread will be watching.

[Tom]

There may well be some good betting races, but as far a "championships" go, I see nothing to get excited about.

At least the Classic might be something worthwhile this year, other a public outing for the lone star in the older division left running.

[burnsy]

This years Breeders Cup is headed to be one of the best ever, in terms of wide open races.

There are very few dominant favorites. Even a horse like Bellafina and Game Winner hardly feel dominant talents.

Should be a fun betting day. Not all that great for crowning champions but being honest the event has lost a lot the past decade.

Agreed, Tom pretty much said the same thing too. For people like us that try to make money betting......this could actually be a good 2 days. Its an open season on who will probably win. Just look at the Jockey Gold Cup and Discreet Lover. With all the retirements and defections that thing was wide open after the two front runners dueled each other into submission. When Thunder Snow got bobbed out that cost me the pick 4 so I will be paying close attention to the craziest of horses. Somethings going to break wide open on the tote board in one or more of those races.


As for calling it "Championships" that's somewhat of a joke. In this regard, I sort of wish they went to the old format and dumped the BC all together. For crying out loud, these days, these horses are done by late summer. You can see it by the way they perform...…if they even make it racing that long. The 3yo division is pretty much down to Mendelssohn this year and he left his guts out there the other day.

[cj]

I think if Accelerate wins the BC Classic, he will have completed an excellent year in which he dominated the handicap division in California winning all of our major races.

That will probably get him a few votes for Horse of the Year; unfortunately, a horse who is inferior to him in every possible way and who beat up on fields of mediocre 3 year olds (including one time with team tactics) has that honor sewed up.

While I agree the 3yo crop has floundered a bit, I'd say Good Magic was as good as any horse Accelerate has beaten save West Coast, and he clearly wasn't 100% on Saturday.

[GMB@BP]

While I agree the 3yo crop has floundered a bit, I'd say Good Magic was as good as any horse Accelerate has beaten save West Coast, and he clearly wasn't 100% on Saturday.

If Justify trained the whole year and developed he would have drowned accelerate, just different levels of talent in my book. Will never know but Justify was a very very talented horse, I think the early retirement has maybe dimmed how good he was with so little racing under his belt.

[SharpCat]

If Justify trained the whole year and developed he would have drowned accelerate, just different levels of talent in my book.

I would agree with that. Is Accelerate even the best horse in the stable? I actually think his stable mate Catalina Cruiser would drown him.

[dilanesp]

If Justify trained the whole year and developed he would have drowned accelerate, just different levels of talent in my book. Will never know but Justify was a very very talented horse, I think the early retirement has maybe dimmed how good he was with so little racing under his belt.

He only gets credit for what he did.

Accelerate perforned at the top level throughout the year against open competition, and ran much faster than Justify.

[Thomas Roulston]

How come Maryland has never hosted a BC?

If they're good enough to host one of the Triple Crown races ...

[letswastemoney]

I'm against Accelerate. Sadler probably doesn't fare as well outside California, and this horse did look bad in the Awesome Again, despite winning.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

How come Maryland has never hosted a BC?

If they're good enough to host one of the Triple Crown races ...

Stop by Pimlico sometime for a partial answer to your question. It's old and I think qualifies as run down.

They host the Preakness because they've always hosted the Preakness. Actually, a colt named Preakness won the first running of the Dinner Party Stakes the year Pimlico opened (1870). Three years later the horse would have the 1873 Preakness Stakes named in his honor.

As for Laurel, I think traffic would be a nightmare, somewhat like Monmouth.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't think Accelerate ran that poorly in his last race even though it came up slow. It's not easy racing wide into the 1st turn when they are moving at a pretty good clip up front and you are close to the pace. Plus, he was also off a bit slowly and moved into that contending position wide. Then he was wide again 2nd turn. I'm not a big believer in adjusting figures for ground loss because I think it's more complex than that, but this was an example where I think the horses ran a lot better than the figure.

What he'll do on the ship for Sadler is another issue. I have no strong view on that.

[dilanesp]

I didn't think Accelerate ran that poorly in his last race even though it came up slow. It's not easy racing wide into the 1st turn when they are moving at a pretty good clip up front and you are close to the pace. Plus, he was also off a bit slowly and moved into that contending position wide. Then he was wide again 2nd turn. I'm not a big believer in adjusting figures for ground loss because I think it's more complex than that, but this was an example where I think the horses ran a lot better than the figure.

What he'll do on the ship for Sadler is another issue. I have no strong view on that.

Accelerate had a terrible trip in that race. With a clean trip he wins much more easily.

And if he runs back to his Pacific Classic, he wins the BC by 5 lengths unless Diversify (who also had a terrible trip) bounces back.

[VigorsTheGrey]

What do you think the odds on Accelerate win be ML and post-time, 2-1..?

[groupie doll]

I'm against Accelerate. Sadler probably doesn't fare as well outside California, and this horse did look bad in the Awesome Again, despite winning.
I'm trying to reserve judgement on the Sadler-ship issue. He doesn't appear to do as well outside of CA, but he also doesn't ship horses at the same rate as some of the other SoCal trainers. The last time he shipped a horse anywhere off the west coast was the day before the Preakness. He's had several hundred starters so far in 2018, but just 4 have shipped east (and 2 of those only went as far as Sunland). The one time Accelerate himself shipped east he ran a winning-type of race; he just got outgunned by a horse primed to pop (City of Light).

Having said that I'd need decent odds to bet Accelerate in the Classic, simply because the potential field looks competitive and evenly matched (and the BC is not at DMR this year). part of the reason he may have looked "bad" in the AA is that it wasn't run at that particular track.

[papillon]

By your logic, he should have won the DCDM last year by a football field instead of finishing up the track.

Sadler has had severe BC-itis for a long time now, regardless of whether the race is at SA or Del Mar or anwhere else. It isn't the competition, most of the horses he races against are the same ones he's raced against all year.

If he wins the BCC, Accelerate likely is the only truely naturally talented horse in the race, even if it turns out uglier than the AA.

Since the Masochistic rule, a lot of horses suddenly develope Octoberitis--they either take to their beds, their sheds, or they all of a sudden seem very ordinary, while those horses chronically finishing behind them suddenly seem very special.

YMMV and likely does.

[papillon]

I'm against Accelerate. Sadler probably doesn't fare as well outside California, and this horse did look bad in the Awesome Again, despite winning.

And West Coast looked even worse despite coming in second, which he only re- inherited by default.

Given WC's supposed level of natural talent, even coming off of a long layoff, he should have won that race. Absolutely no excuses. Didn't McKenzie prove that? Didn't Justify? How many lengths did Accelerate spot him by running wide the whole race? He couldn't have held on to two of them?

He looked as bad as he did in the DWC. Thunder Snow looked as good. He looked as bad as he did in the Pegasus given he was in the cat bird seat, the Lance Armstrong seat, regarding crosswinds the entire race, completely protected.. Collected took the worst of it, but Gun Runner was almost as bad. There is no way he should have been able to not only hold on, but to distance himself. WC finished as good as he did due to position, not talent.

Horse player's no nothing about crosswinds. Crosswinds are the most feared thing in cycling. No other horse had a chance after the field split and they lost the hind of the horse in front of them. Happens in the Veulta every year. I only saw two cyclists who did what Gun Runner did, Jan Ullrich and Eddy Merckx--distance themselves from the feild in crosswinds. It was certinly, based on difficulty, the greatest performance by any horse this century. WC was just that lucky wheel sucker. You show that race to any cyclist, even if they know nothing about horse racing, and they'll say the same thing.

You won't get great odds on WC, but more power to you. Maybe you can replicate the Arrogate/Collected exacta from last year's BCC or the WC/Collected exacta from the Pegasus with McKinzie/WC. Or the WC single in the DWC.

The best horse WC has ever beaten is Gunneverra. That might be a profitable exacta--they finished 1/2 in the Travers and the BCC and the Pegasus. Can we put an X in the DWC? Magic rail and impossibility to close and injury and all that?

[Redboard]

Here are the highest odds of the BCC betting favorite since 2005 and their order of finish.

2011- Flat Out 7/2 (5th)
2009 - Zenyatta 2.8 (1st)
2014 - Shared Belief 5/2 (4th)
2007 - Street Sense 5/2 (4th)

I would think that Accelerate would fall somewhere between these (7/2 - 5/2). There really is no one else worthy to go off lower than him.

[Tom]

And West Coast looked even worse despite coming in second, which he only re- inherited by default.

Given WC's supposed level of natural talent, even coming off of a long layoff, he should have won that race. Absolutely no excuses. Didn't McKenzie prove that? Didn't Justify? How many lengths did Accelerate spot him by running wide the whole race? He couldn't have held on to two of them?


Long layoff and that race was not the target.
THE BC is.

WC has races that Acc would Never be close in.

[groupie doll]

By your logic, he should have won the DCDM last year by a football field instead of finishing up the track.

Sadler has had severe BC-itis for a long time now, regardless of whether the race is at SA or Del Mar or anwhere else. It isn't the competition, most of the horses he races against are the same ones he's raced against all year.

If he wins the BCC, Accelerate likely is the only truely naturally talented horse in the race, even if it turns out uglier than the AA.

Since the Masochistic rule, a lot of horses suddenly develope Octoberitis--they either take to their beds, their sheds, or they all of a sudden seem very ordinary, while those horses chronically finishing behind them suddenly seem very special.

YMMV and likely does.
I was speaking to Sadler shipping out of CA, not his lifetime stats in the BC. Not sure what "logic" you're referring to here.

[Tom]

Looking at the PPs for ACC and WC last night, this could shape up to be a really good race.

I'll start a Classic thread later today wehre wan start pick it apart.
First good feeling I've had about the BC so far.

[chiguy]

Despite my initial post on this thread, I would feel way better about the event if Enable decides to come. No Arc winner has won the BC Turf so this would add a nice level of intrigue to the day.

[Spalding No!]

Despite my initial post on this thread, I would feel way better about the event if Enable decides to come. No Arc winner has won the BC Turf so this would add a nice level of intrigue to the day.
To clarify, no Arc winner has won the BC Turf in the same year (though only a fraction have tried).

Found won the '15 BC Turf and the '16 Arc.

[biggestal99]

If Justify trained the whole year and developed he would have drowned accelerate, just different levels of talent in my book. Will never know but Justify was a very very talented horse, I think the early retirement has maybe dimmed how good he was with so little racing under his belt.


Hard to believe there are still touts out there for Justify (a hot house hoss)
112 days of racings LOL.


He was fast. he was fragile. Thats his "career" in a nutshell


Never beat older.


Hell whos the best hoss he beat?


Good Magic? LOL another hot house hoss.


Bad crop of three year old colts in the US (and that's putting it kindly)


Allan

[cj]

Hard to believe there are still touts out there for Justify (a hot house hoss)
112 days of racings LOL.


He was fast. he was fragile. Thats his "career" in a nutshell


Never beat older.


Hell whos the best hoss he beat?


Good Magic? LOL another hot house hoss.


Bad crop of three year old colts in the US (and that's putting it kindly)


Allan

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

[cj]

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

Complete list:

Shell of West Coast
Isotherm
Prime Attraction x4
The Lieutenant x3
Shades of Victory
Pavel x3
Roman Rosso
Dr. Dorr x2
Two Thirty Five
City of Light
Prince of Arabia
Full of Luck
Untrapped
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee
Malibu Max
Hawaakom
Colonelsdarktemper
Blueridge Traveler
Hedge Fund
Inside Straight
Mubtaahij x2
Fear the Cowboy
Giant Expectations
Top of the Game x2
Curlin Road
Irish Freedom
Ike Walker
Win the Space

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list. :)

[bobphilo]

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

Justify's Derby performance was one of, if not the best performance I've seen this year. His high speed figure doesn't even do him justice since the TFUS pace adjustment tends to underrate exceptional performances at 10 furlongs.

[Tom]

He beat Ike Walker???

WOW~! :eek:

[biggestal99]

Complete list:

Shell of West Coast
Isotherm
Prime Attraction x4
The Lieutenant x3
Shades of Victory
Pavel x3
Roman Rosso
Dr. Dorr x2
Two Thirty Five
City of Light
Prince of Arabia
Full of Luck
Untrapped
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee
Malibu Max
Hawaakom
Colonelsdarktemper
Blueridge Traveler
Hedge Fund
Inside Straight
Mubtaahij x2
Fear the Cowboy
Giant Expectations
Top of the Game x2
Curlin Road
Irish Freedom
Ike Walker
Win the Space

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list. :)


Best horse on the list is City of Light, who, of course beat him at Oaklawn.


other than that and shell of west Coast. yikes.


Allan

[chiguy]

To clarify, no Arc winner has won the BC Turf in the same year (though only a fraction have tried).

Found won the '15 BC Turf and the '16 Arc.


So technically I was correct! :)

[classhandicapper]

If you are going to take a strong stand against Accelerate who are you going to take against him?

I'm not a particularly big fan of the 3yos, unless you want to argue that Mendelssohn's effort in the JCGC flattered Catholic Boy also. I thought the Gold Cup fell apart. Mendy hanging around well late was fine, but Discreet Lover is more of a Grade 3 horse. I suspect if it was a deep Gold Cup Mendy would have gotten swallowed up.

McKinzie looks like he has a bright future, but it's a big jump from that Pennsylvania Derby to the big leagues. If it was anyone other than Baffert I wouldn't like the horse much, but I guess he can jump up further.

It just seems like slim pickings this year unless you are projecting improvement from one of the 3yos or think West Coast can bounce back to his best form.

[GMB@BP]

City of Light, at 10F which is too far for that horse, is the best horse he has beaten.

At 9F he got beat by City of Light.

Accelerate has ran very well though, not beating much, but unlike the rest who are not beating much he has done it with much more style and speed.

[the little guy]

This feels like a great BC Classic to keep your mind as open as possible and make your decisions after you know the full field and post positions.

[classhandicapper]

Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick comeback? ;)

To me, it feels like a race where some "ok" horse catches a track or pace that suits his style and none of the better horses is good enough to overcome the conditions and beat him. In other words, I'm not impressed.

[CheckMark]

While we are on the topic on the Breeders Cup, does anyone know where I can find the super screeners secrets for this years Breeders Cup? I think it is in a pdf format but I cannot find it at all. If anyone knows where to get it would be awesome.

[Spalding No!]

Complete list:

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list. :)
The actual BC Classic probables don't inspire either. The older horse division has been horrendous.

Simply put, from a beaten rivals perspective, handling City of Light, West Coast, and Pavel probably is about a strong a calling card as you are going to find.

The key question with Accelerate, who has improved a few lengths this year from his 3 and 4yo form ala Gun Runner, is whether you believe his regression in the Awesome Again is a sign of being over-the-top or a consequence of the early trouble/"prep" mode.

The latter theory holds some weight as Sadler in the last couple years had foregone a prep w/in 30 days of the BC with Stellar Wind. So perhaps Accelerate wasn't fully cranked.

[Immortal6]

If I'm going to try to beat Accelerate I am looking at going with the long shot Pavel. Has already shipped east to win the Stephen Foster (albeit a mediocre field). He is like 0/4 against Accelerate but I remember watching the San Pasquale where I believe he was actually favored and seeing a horse that was full of run in the stretch with no where to go, and was completely blocked off...would have given Accelerate a run for his money that day.

Will pry get 40-1 so why not take a small stab?

[Tom]

Looking at Beyers, here is my take.

Accelerate - 115. 11 triple digit Beyers. Ran a 115 top two back, could wheel run back to that or higher.

Axelrod - 104. This year - Top-Paired Top-Top-top-Paired Top - 10 pt move to new top. Steadily improving race after race

Bravazo - 97. 28 pt move to start 3yo campaign. Hass only manage to move ahead 8 more pts in 8 more races.

Catholic Boy -104. Versatile, dirt or turf, has steadily progress this year

Collected - 115. 6 triple digit Beyers, one start since January. Better days are gone.

Discreet Lover - 103. Last 5 starts, two tops, two paired tops. Horse ran back to last year's best race then moved ahead.
Finally getting the idea?

Diversify - 110. 6 triple digit Beyers Very fast early last time, first race after pairing two lifetime tops. Could come back strong with the rest.

Gunnivera-109. Still hasn't come within 10 points of last year's form cycle top, Doubt he can move ahead enough to be a factor.

Lone Sailor-95. Seems have peaked out at 93-95. Don't wee any sot for this one to improve.

McKinzie - 107. Improving every start this year. Can move into the 110+ range next time. But he is a 3yo and old are jut as fast or faster.

Mendelssohn - 101. Too slow. Too much to do to catch up, let alone beat the best of the others.

Mind Your Biscuits - 109. Interesting horse,. Only took two route tries, one in the slop, the match his best spring Beyers.Sprinting, his top was 106-109. He could be a better router and blow away to a big new top.

Pavel -104. Too slow. Don't see this guy running with the big boys in here.

West Coast-117. 5 Triple digit Beyers. Could win this with his second best Beyer, even his third. Never made a big move ahead, but several smaller ones. Only one form cycle, he can make a move to beatthisfield and still not tie last year's best. This guy has wiggle room.

Not impressed with anything else.

First pass speed/form cycle looksee.

[Redboard]

I’m going to take a long look at McKinzie. Running in the PA Derby is no reason to toss him. West Coast, California Chrome & Will Take Charge all used that prep and fared pretty well in the BCC. The trainer has proven he doesn’t need actual races to get them ready. 10-1 and I’m in (at this point).

[CheckMark]

Is there a new race that they are introducing for the Breeders Cup? :confused:

[bobphilo]

Looking at Beyers, here is my take.

Accelerate - 115. 11 triple digit Beyers. Ran a 115 top two back, could wheel run back to that or higher.

Axelrod - 104. This year - Top-Paired Top-Top-top-Paired Top - 10 pt move to new top. Steadily improving race after race

Bravazo - 97. 28 pt move to start 3yo campaign. Hass only manage to move ahead 8 more pts in 8 more races.

Catholic Boy -104. Versatile, dirt or turf, has steadily progress this year

Collected - 115. 6 triple digit Beyers, one start since January. Better days are gone.

Discreet Lover - 103. Last 5 starts, two tops, two paired tops. Horse ran back to last year's best race then moved ahead.
Finally getting the idea?

Diversify - 110. 6 triple digit Beyers Very fast early last time, first race after pairing two lifetime tops. Could come back strong with the rest.

Gunnivera-109. Still hasn't come within 10 points of last year's form cycle top, Doubt he can move ahead enough to be a factor.

Lone Sailor-95. Seems have peaked out at 93-95. Don't wee any sot for this one to improve.

McKinzie - 107. Improving every start this year. Can move into the 110+ range next time. But he is a 3yo and old are jut as fast or faster.

Mendelssohn - 101. Too slow. Too much to do to catch up, let alone beat the best of the others.

Mind Your Biscuits - 109. Interesting horse,. Only took two route tries, one in the slop, the match his best spring Beyers.Sprinting, his top was 106-109. He could be a better router and blow away to a big new top.

Pavel -104. Too slow. Don't see this guy running with the big boys in here.

West Coast-117. 5 Triple digit Beyers. Could win this with his second best Beyer, even his third. Never made a big move ahead, but several smaller ones. Only one form cycle, he can make a move to beatthisfield and still not tie last year's best. This guy has wiggle room.

Not impressed with anything else.

First pass speed/form cycle looksee.

Finally good to see someone using speed figures rather than playing the "who beat whom" game, the problems of which is precisely the purpose of speed figures to begin with.
However, I wouldn't call Mendy too slow when his U.A.E. Derby figure is the top figure run by any 3YO this year. He seems to be cycling back to that figure now.
His JCGC is better than even the pace adjusted figure shows since even cj has said that at 10 furlongs the TFUS pace adjustments under rate the top performances. He just has to to avoid setting or chasing the early pace in the Classic if it is too fast.
Not saying he's my pick right now. This is a complex race and going to need a long analysis.

[Wiley]

Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick comeback? ;)


Ha, Ha, well Skywalker was pulled out of the breeding shed and came back to racing and won the Classic in '86 so why not.

Tom, do you have numbers for Seeking the Soul?
I am guessing he is too slow, but he does like Churchill so there is a chance he outperforms his odds. Won the Ack Ack at CD as his prep for the Classic. He is listed on the BC contenders page site so I assume they are planning on running him.

[classhandicapper]

I’m going to take a long look at McKinzie. Running in the PA Derby is no reason to toss him. West Coast, California Chrome & Will Take Charge all used that prep and fared pretty well in the BCC. The trainer has proven he doesn’t need actual races to get them ready. 10-1 and I’m in (at this point).

I have nothing personal against the PA Derby, but some of those other horses already had deeper resumes against the highest quality 3yos in very big races. In this case you are betting on the horse handling far and away the toughest field he's raced against and still probably needing to run faster to win. To me that's a tough bet unless I am getting a very good price or the trainer is Bob Baffert. ;)

[classhandicapper]

Finally good to see someone using speed figures rather than playing the "who beat whom" game, the problems of which is precisely the purpose of speed figures to begin with.
However, I wouldn't call Mendy too slow when his U.A.E. Derby figure is the top figure run by any 3YO this year. He seems to be cycling back to that figure now.
His JCGC is better than even the pace adjusted figure shows since even cj has said that at 10 furlongs the TFUS pace adjustments under rate the top performances. He just has to to avoid setting or chasing the early pace in the Classic if it is too fast.
Not saying he's my pick right now. This is a complex race and going to need a long analysis.

Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.

He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than the Gold Cup and being able to keep going when better closers than Discreet Lover are coming at him late. Maybe if they can get him to relax further off it and finish he'd do better, but I don't think I like him even though I agree he's moving forward.

[chiguy]

This feels like a great BC Classic to keep your mind as open as possible and make your decisions after you know the full field and post positions.


This. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[biggestal99]

Is there a new race that they are introducing for the Breeders Cup? :confused:


Juvy turf sprint.


Allan

[Tom]

BRIS has both PPs and data file up today.
You have to change the calendar on top to NOV and they are listed under the dates - 11/2-11/3.

DRF PPS for Classic and Turf are up at breederscup.com.

Anyone seen the DRF Advance hard copy on newsstands yet?

[rastajenk]

Juvy turf sprint.
AllanI must've missed the groundswell of a grassroots effort to get this one in the lineup.

[dilanesp]

I must've missed the groundswell of a grassroots effort to get this one in the lineup.

My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new "American classic distance". She jokingly predicts that in 25 years, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at that distance.

[ronsmac]

My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new "American classic distance". She jokingly predicts that in 25 years, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at that distance.
Breeders cup in 25 years? She's very optimistic.

[bobphilo]

Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.

He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than the Gold Cup and being able to keep going when better closers than Discreet Lover are coming at him late. Maybe if they can get him to relax further off it and finish he'd do better, but I don't think I like him even though I agree he's moving forward.

Agreed that his Dubai figure may have been rail bias aided but so may have some of the figures of the other contenders. The magnitude of his victory and the huge figure indicate there may have been more than a bias involved so I wouldn't totally disregard it off hand.
I doubt he will have to contend with as fierce a pace as in the JCGC and his TFUS figure was just as good as the winner and even cj has agreed that at 10 furlongs his figures, even when pace adjusted underrate the best performances, so I consider his JCGC race as good as a win against top competition. At the very least it sets him up perfectly for a big BC Classic.
I agree that he must relax and lay off the pace, if it's hot, however the defection of Diversity, whose suicidal early pace was both horses' undoing in the JCGC, improve his chances tremendously.
Of course, as I've said, he is not my pick yet as I want to take another long hard look at some of the other contenders, particularly Mind Your Biscuits and Accelerate. However, I think Mendy is flying a bit under the radar and being written off a bit too quickly by many and will likely outrun his odds.

[owlshead]

I can't stand him! What a phony, theatrical major this caller is! I have to turn down the audio each time I hear a replay of NYRA stake races.

Can NYRA fire this guy...it's bad enough they card like 10, five-horse-field races each day, one has to listen to this screeching idiot. Hi Larry!

Is John Lies or Kurt Becker available? I would settle for Vic.


have to agree... turn him down

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I used to do the analysis on the Juvenile Filly Turf for Horseplayer Magazine, and I was pretty accurate. The year that Lady Eli won (2014) I had a $20 P4. I singled both her and Goldencents on all my tickets. The other races in the sequence I didn't have to go very deep.

[dilanesp]

You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.

[Spalding No!]

You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.
I agree, at least as far as dirt starts go. He's lost ground in the stretch in each of his last 3 starts. Can't see him turning it around.

Out of the JC Gold Cup, Thunder Snow rates more of a chance and will be making his 3rd start off a layoff. Figures to return to his pace setting/pressing style which should help his cause.

[Redboard]

You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.

Well, he won't be cheap, that's for sure. As someone here already mentioned, he’s looking like the lone speed; no way he’ll be flying under the radar and no way he’ll be double digits. Hard to see him NOT hanging on for a piece, depending on who shows up and post position. Draw a line through his derby and he’s hit the board in all of his races this year with two firsts.
As a side note, NBC played the beginning of Symphony No. 4 (Italian Symphony), as his walk-up music last time, which showed a little ingenuity since his wedding March is the most popular and recognizable. However, I’m partial to the String Octet in E flat major, his Opus 20 — IMO the finest chamber music ever composed.

[Redboard]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2018_Projected_field_odds_123

Accelerate, 3-1
West Coast, 6-1
McKinzie, 6-1
Catholic Boy, 7-1
Yoshida, 9-1
Mendelssohn, 10-1
Thunder Snow, 13-1
Mind Your Biscuits, 15-1
Gunnevera, 28-1
Pavel, 31-1
Bravazo, 34-1
Discreet Lover, 52-1
Axelrod, 66-1
Seeking the Soul, 78-1
Toast of New York, 69-1


Tom: Doesn’t look like West Coast is going to be overlooked, my McKinzie either. The Baffert factor.

Based on these, I like Mendelssohn & Mind Your Biscuits.

[bobphilo]

I agree, at least as far as dirt starts go. He's lost ground in the stretch in each of his last 3 starts. Can't see him turning it around.

Out of the JC Gold Cup, Thunder Snow rates more of a chance and will be making his 3rd start off a layoff. Figures to return to his pace setting/pressing style which should help his cause.

His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around. It would have taken Secretariat to not lose ground in the JCGC after attending that toxic pace. The winner, Discreet Lover, benefited even more from the pace by laying even further off it.You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it. The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.

The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions. Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify. Just look at the pace analysis. Having said that, I like his chances too. He showed he could adapt to whatever pace he was facing and, like Mendy, is cycling up to a top figure.

[bobphilo]

Edit: My previous post was unclear as to what horses I was sometimes referring to. The correct post should have read:

His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around. It would have taken Secretariat to not lose ground in the JCGC after attending that toxic pace. You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it. The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.

The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions. Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify. Just look at the pace analysis. The winner, Discreet Lover, benefited even more from the pace by laying even further off it. Having said that, I like TS's chances too. He showed he could adapt to whatever pace he was facing and, like Mendy, is cycling up to a top figure.

[CheckMark]

BRIS has both PPs and data file up today.
You have to change the calendar on top to NOV and they are listed under the dates - 11/2-11/3.

DRF PPS for Classic and Turf are up at breederscup.com.

Anyone seen the DRF Advance hard copy on newsstands yet?

I need to find a copy. Maybe next week it would be out.

[letswastemoney]

Mendelssohn was best in JCGC. I wish he stayed in North America though.

If they were going to do an American campaign, there was no logical point in letting Aidan O'Brien keep him.

[bobphilo]

Mendelssohn was best in JCGC. I wish he stayed in North America though.

If they were going to do an American campaign, there was no logical point in letting Aidan O'Brien keep him.

I agree Mendy was best in the JCGC and O'Brien is the one who got him there. He planned his campaign and is carrying it out well. He is doing all the right things with this horse and should stay on with him.

I've been reading an interesting article on how O'Brien uses the principles of bioenergetics in bringing his horses to their physiological peaks, including the use of pulse monitors in training. Seems to be working well with Mendy.

[Spalding No!]

His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around.
No doubt he has improved in his last 3 starts, but when tempered by the reality that he has not throttled his early speed sufficiently to allow for a strong finish, when it's all said and done, his best has not been good enough. Furthermore, the Jockey Club Gold Cup may be representative of his peak and there's no guarantee (or indication) that he has more room to improve.

Nevertheless, he's a brave horse as he offered some resistance to both Catholic Boy and Thunder Snow in his last two before ultimately wilting in the final furlong. I would anticipate a 1994 Bertrando BC Classic effort...a 1993 Bertrando BC Classic at best...

You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it.
Considering that I highlighted a pattern in Mendelssohn's running lines over multiple races, it should go without saying that I was taking nothing in a vacuum. If Mendelssohn keeps running--to his disadvantage--into fast paces in all his races than that simply means either (a) he's too fast too early for his own good or (b) the nature of top class dirt racing is to see fast early paces. There's no evidence that we should expect a monumental change in style or conditions in the BC Classic.

Furthermore, its a bit hyperbolic to say Mendelssohn was attending the pace. Ryan Moore wisely checked his mount in the first quarter once it was apparent that the dunderhead riding Diversify was going to impersonate a nighttime jockey at Los Alamitos. If Moore made a mistake, it was going all in at the 1/2 mile pole--way too early to hope that he had a prayer in the stretch.

The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
That's probably what the jockey on Thunder Snow--also blessed with natural early speed--was thinking during the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it proved to be the right move. Whereas Mendelssohn has yet to show the ability to rate (on dirt), Thunder Snow showed some additional versatility in the JCGC that makes him a much better win candidate in the BC Classic.

Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup would have been his 3rd off the layoff in that instance. Which supports the notion that we might have seen his best in that race, which probably isn't good enough to win the BC Classic.

The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions.
Either Thunder Snow has a better jockey or more versatility or both...none which should be construed as points against him as far as winning the BC Classic.

Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify.
What's the evidence for this? He ran faster than Mendelssohn in Dubai against much better company.

[snappit]

Great news. Enable will go to The Breeders Cup Turf. British bookies make her a 4/7 chance.

[biggestal99]

Great news. Enable will go to The Breeders Cup Turf. British bookies make her a 4/7 chance.


That is really great news. she's 2/5 odds on my line.


she aint losing.


Allan

[Gerard02]

Anyone know where I can find a site that gives internal fractions of any horse, other than Trakus? I’m trying to cut down on doing times by hand with certain horses, like foreign horses or tracks that don’t have Trakus.