September handle and wagering metrics

[cj]

https://twitter.com/o_crunk/status/1046767396470607872

Some scary numbers in there IMO.

[cj]

https://image.ibb.co/d3RXBz/metrics.jpg

The ones boxed in red scare me the most.

[JustRalph]

https://twitter.com/o_crunk/status/1046767396470607872

Some scary numbers in there IMO.

Please elaborate...


Cj, you too......

[PaceAdvantage]

My guess is the whale teams are getting better at this, while driving more people away...they will soon be eating themselves more often than ever, and are probably trying to get as much as possible out of the pools while the going is still good, thus the increased handle numbers and high % winning favs.

Once the party is over for them, down goes racing.

[cj]

Please elaborate...


Cj, you too......

My guess is the whale teams are getting better at this, while driving more people away...they will soon be eating themselves more often than ever, and are probably trying to get as much as possible out of the pools while the going is still good, thus the increased handle numbers and high % winning favs.

Once the party is over for them, down goes racing.

Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.

[Tom]

Deep down inside, I am hoping to enjoy the carnage.

:popcorn:

[Andy Asaro]

Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.

Time to eliminate rebates and have one low take for everyone. Gamblers should have to play to win in order to win. That will solve a lot of problems.

[incoming]

Deep down inside, I am hoping to enjoy the carnage.

:popcorn:

Would Hong Kong be a viable option? On second thought, this is where they probably migrated from.

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.

I spoke about this several months ago in this thread.

Whales: A chink in the armor? (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2346203&postcount=1)

Since most winners are being bet down (because the whales are finding value)...

Most of my research this year has been aimed at figuring out which horses are likely to get bet down.

[ronsmac]

I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.

[GMB@BP]

I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.

agree.

tracks made their bed with racinos and syndicates. Will be interesting to see how it works out in the long run.

[castaway01]

Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.

While handle has been sliding downward for the past 15 years with other forms of gambling growing exponentially, there has also been a slow decline in all of the things that make horse racing a fun and rewarding form of gambling---fewer races and smaller fields in those races, more favorites winning, lower average mutual. However, I don't think there will be an "explosion" (like handle dropping 50% year to year). It's more like the air slowly leaking out of a balloon. For now, things like expanded racinos (and now sports wagering) and whale handle have patched the holes in the balloon for the racetracks. But unless someone finds a way to pump some air back into that balloon, eventually it's going to be flat.

[ultracapper]

Any way to tell if the avg win payout above $20 is rising. Just seems to be logical that if the winning favs are trending down, the losing favs would also be bet down, the reciprocating result being higher avg payouts on long shot winners.

If I remember correctly a study submitted on the board a few months ago showed the winners paying $20+ dropping from 12.5% to 12%, give or take, but I don't remember whether the avg payout on those winners was part of that presentation.

[AndyC]

I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.

Please elaborate.

[ronsmac]

Please elaborate.The withholding laws were changed at the end of September or beginning of October last year. I can't remember the exact date. Since then , handle has been up about 5% at most meets, give or take a point or two. This October will have the same withholding laws when compared to last October.

[AndyC]

The withholding laws were changed at the end of September or beginning of October last year. I can't remember the exact date. Since then , handle has been up about 5% at most meets, give or take a point or two. This October will have the same withholding laws when compared to last October.

Has the handle increases been primarily in the pools most affected by withholding or has it been an across the board increases? I would guess that the increase would be attributable to the big players whose cash flow would be significantly increased by the change. Small players seldom, if ever, hit a 2500-1 shot and accordingly wouldn't experience added cash flow due to withholding changes.

[GMB@BP]

Has the handle increases been primarily in the pools most affected by withholding or has it been an across the board increases? I would guess that the increase would be attributable to the big players whose cash flow would be significantly increased by the change. Small players seldom, if ever, hit a 2500-1 shot and accordingly wouldn't experience added cash flow due to withholding changes.

it really helped the whales I would imagine

[ronsmac]

it really helped the whales I would imagine
I'm a minnow and it's helped me immensely. I've had zero withholding since the new laws went into affect compared to thousands the year before. 98% of my play are on exotics. It was frustrating to be down 10k for the year , hit a 7k pick 4 and have 25% taken off the top. Even when you file at the end of the year it never works out because of the way it affects all of your other deductions that you never get all of the withholding back.