good magic retired

[dilanesp]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/champion-good-magic-retired-to-hill-n-dale-farms/

[Inner Dirt]

I know zero about breeding Thoroughbred horses. Is there a chance retiring horses so early to stud without proving long term durability can perpetuate the breed becoming more and more fragile as time passes? Which will lead to more and more breakdowns that no one who loves these magnificent animals wants to see.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

That was some "good magic" that the owner used to make it sound like he was just going to get some R & R after showing a high white blood cell count.

[burnsy]

I know zero about breeding Thoroughbred horses. Is there a chance retiring horses so early to stud without proving long term durability can perpetuate the breed becoming more and more fragile as time passes? Which will lead to more and more breakdowns that no one who loves these magnificent animals wants to see.



Ya think? You are generations late. That horse (your theory) literally left the barn years ago...……..6 races, retired...…..9 starts.....blood count.....lol......retired. 3 races in 2 months hurt or retired. Breathed too hard or bled after a work ….retired.

Then I read one brilliant mind posted on another site. I quote, " Horses that win the Triple Crown should retire after it." Hey, we got 6 horses racing, 2nd tier, that good. ??

Whose the favorite in the BC Classic...….?????? Patch? :lol::lol::lol:

Its already a done deal. The udders of this sport are being milked for the breeding cash. Its a giant circle jerk of funds, at the top...similar to a Ponzi scheme. Ride the Pyramid......;)

[Thomas Roulston]

When most horses had at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profiles, these premature retirements were far less prevalent. Some also blame the now-legal status of Lasix and other medications for the premature retirements.

[bobphilo]

I know zero about breeding Thoroughbred horses. Is there a chance retiring horses so early to stud without proving long term durability can perpetuate the breed becoming more and more fragile as time passes? Which will lead to more and more breakdowns that no one who loves these magnificent animals wants to see.

I think you know and understand more about T-Bred breeding than you give yourself credit for. Not only are they retiring horses before they have proven their durability - they are retiring horses that have proven their unsoundness and lack of durability as long as they have won a few big races. Small wonder that their progeny show similar unsoundness and fragility.

[bobphilo]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/champion-good-magic-retired-to-hill-n-dale-farms/

I can't help laughing at this quite from the John Sikura (manager of Hill n Dale farm). "It is rare indeed for a Champion 2 year old to retain his Grade 1 form at 3". Yes, it is rare indeed, and non-existent in the case of his stallion.

A horse who is unable to even complete his 3YO season is now said to be retaining his Grade 1 2YO form.

[Spalding No!]

I can't help laughing at this quite from the John Sikura (manager of Hill n Dale farm). "It is rare indeed for a Champion 2 year old to retain his Grade 1 form at 3". Yes, it is rare indeed, and non-existent in the case of his stallion.

A horse who is unable to even complete his 3YO season is now said to be retaining his Grade 1 2YO form.
The statement was nonsense to begin with. It's not rare at all.

The last four 2yo champs prior to Good Magic were Classic Empire (Arkansas Derby, nosed out in Preakness), Nyquist (Florida and KY Derby), American Pharoah (Triple Crown, etc.), and Shared Belief (Pacific Classic, Awesome Again).

Lookin At Lucky (Preakness, Haskell) also within the last decade and Street Sense (KY Derby, Travers) a couple years prior to that...

[bobphilo]

The statement was nonsense to begin with. It's not rare at all.

The last four 2yo champs prior to Good Magic were Classic Empire (Arkansas Derby, nosed out in Preakness), Nyquist (Florida and KY Derby), American Pharoah (Triple Crown, etc.), and Shared Belief (Pacific Classic, Awesome Again).

Lookin At Lucky (Preakness, Haskell) also within the last decade and Street Sense (KY Derby, Travers) a couple years prior to that...

I don't think that not even completing their 3YO season like Justify and Good Magic can be called retaining their form - at least not for long.

[AskinHaskin]

When most horses had at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profiles, these premature retirements were far less prevalent.


Well, as the last Professional Chefs were foaled in 1976, don't look for that trend to solve itself anytime soon.

Nobody can tell if your point has a direct correlation or whether it is an indirect function of mere time.


The stewardship of the whole Chef-de-race notion has fallen off the rails in recent decades. For while North American distance racing has been curtailed a great deal, they are still running long and longer in Europe, and the idea that zero sires have demonstrated a significant prepotency for those distances during the past 25 years is probably absurd.


Dosage is fine, in theory, but when actually practiced, most of the data was back-loaded 6 or 7 decades after the earliest Chef, and when foal crops were small/tiny, and then it was basically steered into the rocks with the horrible publicity from the very correct placement of Alydar as a Chef after the fact relating to Strike the Gold's Derby win.

The Dosage-related Kentucky Derby headlines in the 1980's were hilarious, in hindsight, given the furor they created.

Now it seems that whoever IS in charge of new Chefs, doesn't even care enough to keep-up the research.


The average N.A. foal crop in the 1920's was 3234

The average N.A. foal crop in the 1980's was 46,381


Yet there were zero Professional Chefs foaled in the 1980's (nor at any time since) and a whole handful foaled in the 1920's or the 1930's (and yes, I know this isn't at all limited to North America)

[dilanesp]

Well, as the last Professional Chefs were foaled in 1976, don't look for that trend to solve itself anytime soon.

Nobody can tell if your point has a direct correlation or whether it is an indirect function of mere time.


The stewardship of the whole Chef-de-race notion has fallen off the rails in recent decades. For while North American distance racing has been curtailed a great deal, they are still running long and longer in Europe, and the idea that zero sires have demonstrated a significant prepotency for those distances during the past 25 years is probably absurd.


Dosage is fine, in theory, but when actually practiced, most of the data was back-loaded 6 or 7 decades after the earliest Chef, and when foal crops were small/tiny, and then it was basically steered into the rocks with the horrible publicity from the very correct placement of Alydar as a Chef after the fact relating to Strike the Gold's Derby win.

The Dosage-related Kentucky Derby headlines in the 1980's were hilarious, in hindsight, given the furor they created.

Now it seems that whoever IS in charge of new Chefs, doesn't even care enough to keep-up the research.


The average N.A. foal crop in the 1920's was 3234

The average N.A. foal crop in the 1980's was 46,381


Yet there were zero Professional Chefs foaled in the 1980's (nor at any time since) and a whole handful foaled in the 1920's or the 1930's (and yes, I know this isn't at all limited to North America)

I don't think dosage is even fine in theory.

I acknowledge that the biggest problems with dosage are in practice-- female influences can't be measured, the whole theory was retroactively fitted to the data, etc.

But even the theory-- that there's something magical about 1 1/4 races that require pedigrees full of stamina-- is really fundamentally inconsistent with what we have seen in the last few decades.

Most of the big 1 1/4 mile races are being won by horses who are either speedsters (Bayern, Fort Larned, Game on Dude) or horses with plenty of tactical speed who stretch it out, i.e., middle distance horses (American Pharoah, Justify, California Chrome). Meanwhile, we have not seen a whole bunch of horses who can't duplicate their middle distance form at 1 1/4 miles. Basically, 1 1/4 mile races play out the same as 1 1/8 mile races, except for situations like last Saturday at Belmont where there is a suicidal pace.

So there's no need for a special pedigree based system to determine stamina, because stamina just isn't all that important. The good horses can stretch out their speed and get the distance.

[Prioress Ply]

it's fundamentally inconsistent with what you have seen in the past few decades because of the breeders themselves.

"They louse you up and then call you louse." -- Clifford Odets.

[papillon]

I don't think that not even completing their 3YO season like Justify and Good Magic can be called retaining their form - at least not for long.

There are 3yos still on the track that have maintained their form. Most were in last year's BCJT. Two of them finished one-two in the Travers, and one just ran 3rd in the JCGC.

Good Magic: 9: 3-3-1, last year 3: 1-2-0, BCJ, this year: 6: 2-1-1, Haskell.

Mendelssohn: 11: 4-2-2, last year 5: 2-1-0, BCJT, this year 6: 2-1-2, 3rd in JCGC.

Catholic Boy: 9: 6-1-0, last year, 4: 3-0-0, Remsen, this year 5: 3-1-0, Travers.

Just cuz it stikes me as a little bit funny:

Someone ran these splits in a JCGC once, who was it?

22 3/5, 45 1/5, 1:09 2/5, 1:35 2/5

and what about these?

22 4/5, 45 4/5, 1:09 1/5, 1:33 4/5

[dilanesp]

There are 3yos still on the track that have maintained their form. Most were in last year's BCJT. Two of them finished one-two in the Travers, and one just ran 3rd in the JCGC.

Good Magic: 9: 3-3-1, last year 3: 1-2-0, BCJ, this year: 6: 2-1-1, Haskell.

Mendelssohn: 11: 4-2-2, last year 5: 2-1-0, BCJT, this year 6: 2-1-2, 3rd in JCGC.

Catholic Boy: 9: 6-1-0, last year, 4: 3-0-0, Remsen, this year 5: 3-1-0, Travers.

Just cuz it stikes me as a little bit funny:

Someone ran these splits in a JCGC once, who was it?

22 3/5, 45 1/5, 1:09 2/5, 1:35 2/5

and what about these?

22 4/5, 45 4/5, 1:09 1/5, 1:33 4/5

Well I know Seattle Slew ran ridiculous fractions in 1978.

[AskinHaskin]

the whole theory was retroactively fitted to the data, etc.




... uh, as with most every breeding-related angle, theory or nicking pattern.


(nice image though, of some guy leading the yearling Graustark and remarking to anyone who would listen: "gee, I can't wait to cross-breed this one's mares to grandsons of his future full-brother His Majesty in 25 or 40 years")


The groundwork for dosage was laid many years prior to when it first went viral in print at Kentucky Derby time in the early 1980's. That despite some of today's Chef's having been designated as such well after that.

So clearly the whole theory was not retroactively fitted to the data.

Nice try though.

[dilanesp]

... uh, as with most every breeding-related angle, theory or nicking pattern.


(nice image though, of some guy leading the yearling Graustark and remarking to anyone who would listen: "gee, I can't wait to cross-breed this one's mares to grandsons of his future full-brother His Majesty in 25 or 40 years")


The groundwork for dosage was laid many years prior to when it first went viral in print at Kentucky Derby time in the early 1980's. That despite some of today's Chef's having been designated as such well after that.

So clearly the whole theory was not retroactively fitted to the data.

Nice try though.

Askin, the way science works is you come up with a hypothesis and then test it against future results.

The Dosage people retroactively fit a theory to prior results and then claimed 50 years of succeess. Then when it turned out that it didn't work, they reclassified horses to retroactively make horses into qualifiers.

That's not science.