Handicapping books useful for a 16 year old

[CheckMark]

I am looking on returning my book "Investing at the Racetrack" to Amazon, but I was wondering if any of the titles below would be useful for a 16 year old. PLEASE REPLAY!
__________________________________________________ ____________
Betting Thoroughbreds: A Professional's Guide for the Horseplayer: Second Revised Edition

Winning Horseracing Handicapping: Secrets of a Successful Horseracing Handicapper

Handicapping Thoroughbreds - Lets Keep It Simple: Handicapping Horses Made Simple

The Horse Racing Guide To The Galaxy - Color Edition The Kentucky Derby - Preakness - Belmont: The Must Have Thoroughbred Race Track Handicapping & Betting Book For Beginners. (sounds good but no reviews)

Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing

The Perfect Speed Handicapping System

Handicapping the Wall Street Way: Picking Xtra Winners at the Track

Off the Charts: Turning Result Charts into Profitable Selections at the Track

Expert Handicapping: Winning Insights into Betting Thoroughbreds

Handicapping Speed: The Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse Sprinters

__________________________________________________ ________

Any other books would be great! Thanks. :popcorn:

[jay68802]

Personally I do not have any of those title's. Suggestions would be

Beyer on Speed-Beyer

Figure Handicapping-Quinn

Extreme Pace Handicapping-Giles


Books that should be written.

CJ on Speed and Pace.

How to Handicap a Race Perfectly, and Bet it Totally Wrong

[cj]

The Handicapping Speed book, by Charles Carroll, is very good.

If not that one, get the Davidowitz book.

[ReplayRandall]

Whatever you do, don't go the conventional route to start, that road has no profit in it......Go outside the box, go contrarian, and read Kinky Handicapping by Mark Cramer.

[thaskalos]

Shouldn't you be reading SCHOOLBOOKS at 16 years-old?

[Light]

As a handicapper for 35 years, my two favorite books during my formative years may have been

Modern Pace handicapping by Brohamer and

Pace makes the Race by Sartin, Pizzolla, Hambleton and Schmidt

They gave me the nuts and bolts of handicapping rather than the anecdotal.

Today I have my own style of handicapping which is derived largely from my own experience. Things I see everyday in handicapping yet never seen anyone address in all the handicapping books I've read nor even talk much about on this board. (Don't ask what)

[CheckMark]

Shouldn't you be reading SCHOOLBOOKS at 16 years-old?

I don’t have textbooks or any books to read this semester. :pound:

[AltonKelsey]

Kids no longer read.


MMORPG is where its at

[bobphilo]

The Handicapping Speed book, by Charles Carroll, is very good.

If not that one, get the Davidowitz book.

Carroll's book is one of the best. He debunks the myth that 1 length is equal to 1/5 second and explains how a Thoroughbred length is 8 feet. The commonly accepted 10 feet is for Clydesdales. He even discusses how Chaos Theory applies to racing and does everything with great wit. I used to use his speed figures and found them very good.

Quirin's Winning at the Races is also excellent and overall the most informative book on handicapping I've read. Great books for any age.

[Tape Reader]

Whatever you do, don't go the conventional route to start, that road has no profit in it......Go outside the box, go contrarian, and read Kinky Handicapping by Mark Cramer.

Agree with that.

As soon as the kid understands that money makes the mare-go-round, introduce the kid to the stock market.

[Buckeye]

I am looking on returning my book "Investing at the Racetrack"

Good Idea.

"Total Victory at the Track" same thing.

I even threw away my Yellow Sartin Manual-- and could go on.

The best book for everyone is Handicapping Magic.

[biggestal99]

Beyer on Speed-Beyer




My copy many years old has been bookmarked and marked in yellow.


anything by Mark Cramer are definite reads too.....


Allan

[Actor]

I don’t have textbooks or any books to read this semester. :pound:Then get a math textbook and read it. When you get to college take a course in statistics.

It amazes me that writers of most handicapping books don't seem to know math. They take pages to explain how to do a calculation that could be expressed in a single formula. Some may be trying to dumb it down for their readers. Maybe they get paid by the word.

Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing is a must read just for the background if nothing else.

The best is Winning at the Race Track by William Quirin. You have to be able to handle the math.

Learn to program a computer. Write your own software.

[MONEY]

From what you have written about your handicapping, you do not need a handicapping book.

What you need to do is learn when to bet your picks & which pool/s to bet into.

[Buckeye]

From what you have written about your handicapping, you do not need a handicapping book.

What you need to do is learn when to bet your picks & which pool/s to bet into.

I'll go with that.

Sounds subjective.

Kind of like "you pays your money and you takes your choice/chance."

(Something else I've heard.) not read.

[Buckeye]

Incidentally, Dick Mitchell knew quite a lot about Math and Formulas and even Calculus.

But the question is . . . :)

[Actor]

As a handicapper for 35 years, my two favorite books during my formative years may have been

Modern Pace handicapping by Brohamer and

Pace makes the Race by Sartin, Pizzolla, Hambleton and SchmidtI have a copy of Pace Makes the Race. It's by Hambleton and Schmidt. Sartin and Pizzolla don't seem to be on the title page.

[Actor]

When I was 16 my dad or my uncle had to make my bets for me. I wasn't allowed anywhere near the windows.

[thaskalos]

I have a copy of Pace Makes the Race. It's by Hambleton and Schmidt. Sartin and Pizzolla don't seem to be on the title page.

You have the large softcover version which came later. The earlier hardcover one had more pages...and included the names of Sartin and Pizzolla on the cover.

[CheckMark]

When I was 16 my dad or my uncle had to make my bets for me. I wasn't allowed anywhere near the windows.

I secretly do my bets at a ABM. But one night the machine was not working so I went up to the teller and she was like “oh you can put your bets in here sir” :lol:
But she never acknowledged that there was a Pick 6 at penn national so I to be separate pick 3’s

[bobphilo]

Then get a math textbook and read it. When you get to college take a course in statistics.

It amazes me that writers of most handicapping books don't seem to know math. They take pages to explain how to do a calculation that could be expressed in a single formula. Some may be trying to dumb it down for their readers. Maybe they get paid by the word.

Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing is a must read just for the background if nothing else.

The best is Winning at the Race Track by William Quirin. You have to be able to handle the math.

Learn to program a computer. Write your own software.

Couldn't agree more. You have to learn something about statistics to understand the studies.

Quirin's Winning at the Races is the best I've read. He puts things in language any intelligent person can understand. Guess that's why he's a professor.

[cj]

Couldn't agree more. You have to learn something about statistics to understand the studies.

Quirin's Winning at the Races is the best I've read. He puts things in language any intelligent person can understand. Guess that's why he's a professor.

I wonder how much of Quirin's stuff actually held up over larger sample sizes. They were pretty small if memory serves, obviously being limited for several reasons at the time.

[Tom]

Shouldn't you be reading SCHOOLBOOKS at 16 years-old?

I got more out of Beyer than I did Thoreau.

[Light]

I got more out of Beyer than I did Thoreau.

They didn't teach about Thoreau in my HS. I did read him on my own when I was 16 but none of my classmates knew about him. They were mainly interested in sex, drugs and RR.

[thaskalos]

I wonder how much of Quirin's stuff actually held up over larger sample sizes. They were pretty small if memory serves, obviously being limited for several reasons at the time.

None of it. Quirin was hired to do his research by the legendary gambler "Al Fransesco"...but Fransesco rejected Quirin's findings because they didn't hold up to a more thorough scrutiny. Of course...this didn't stop Quirin from publishing the results on his own...and making a name for himself in spite of his research's questionable nature.

[Light]

I want to point out that there is a big difference between a 16yo LEARNING about the mechanics of horse racing and BETTING on horse racing. Now would be a good time for an apprenticeship for a 16yo who is interested in betting the horses in a couple of years through learning about it. It is a great mental exercise.

When i was 10yo, I would grab my fathers WSJ and check out stocks on the NYSE. ALL my stocks I followed made a nice or huge profit. I had the skill a stockbroker could only dream about. My father wouldn't listen to my picks because I was 10yo so I stopped telling him. But what my father couldn't see was that my age didn't matter because what I lacked in maturity was taken up with a skill. As I matured and became more "educated", I lost that skill even though I am doing well in the Stock market today.

As handicappers, this is what we mean when we talk about "thinking outside the box". In other words, thinking in unconventional but potentially productive ways. I think a serious 16yo can come up with good angles at that age that he will not remember as he becomes "matured" and "educated" just as I did at 10yo.

[CheckMark]

I want to point out that there is a big difference between a 16yo LEARNING about the mechanics of horse racing and BETTING on horse racing. Now would be a good time for an apprenticeship for a 16yo who is interested in betting the horses in a couple of years through learning about it. It is a great mental exercise.

When i was 10yo, I would grab my fathers WSJ and check out stocks on the NYSE. ALL my stocks I followed made a nice or huge profit. I had the skill a stockbroker could only dream about. My father wouldn't listen to my picks because I was 10yo so I stopped telling him. But what my father couldn't see was that my age didn't matter because what I lacked in maturity was taken up with a skill. As I matured and became more "educated", I lost that skill even though I am doing well in the Stock market today.

As handicappers, this is what we mean when we talk about "thinking outside the box". In other words, thinking in unconventional but potentially productive ways. I think a serious 16yo can come up with good angles at that age that he will not remember as he becomes "matured" and "educated" just as I did at 10yo.

Light, I learn by writing things down in Hilroy notebooks and I mean EVERYTHING! From my trips to the track, to mentors teaching me the ways of their handicapping, to stats about my selections. And I can remember ANYTHING!

[thaskalos]

The unfortunate side of it is that horse-handicapping has an ADDICTIVE nature...which can become a significant barrier to a young person's conventional educational pursuits. Beyer sacrificed a Harvard education in order to play the horses...and Thaskalos is currently handicapping 5-horse fields at Belmont instead of arguing intricate cases before the Supreme Court. Let the youngsters beware. :ThmbUp:

[Light]

And I can remember ANYTHING!

Really? What did you have for Breakfast on March 17 2017.

[CheckMark]

Really? What did you have for Breakfast on March 17 2017.

As a matter of fact I had 2 pieces of toast with peanut butter like I always do!

[bobphilo]

I wonder how much of Quirin's stuff actually held up over larger sample sizes. They were pretty small if memory serves, obviously being limited for several reasons at the time.

I believe his study was based on data collected over several years. In any case, while large sample sizes are fine, they are often over estimated by the general public. I agree that in certain specific situations sample size needed to be limited, but he handled these professionally. Exactly what I have been advising you to anticipate in your own study of pace patterns with suggestions you have been getting to include multiple variables. Much more important is how the data is collected and used. He also gave excellent explanations for his findings consistent with logic and science. His use of regression analysis to develop a comprehensive betting method that weighed all the handicapping factors according to research findings was brilliant.

As far as applicability, 82% of Amazon customers gave his book their top rating. I observed that his findings hold up from my own experience and observations spanning 60 years.

His methodology could not be criticized by anyone with formal training in research methodology. Take it from me, as someone well known for my critical approach to how research is done, Quirin's work is excellent, notwithstanding the criticisms of those who are attached to the handicapping theories that came about before modern research methodology was used in the field. I know you are familiar with who I am referring to.

It's only limitation I see is that he had to use the old inaccurate DRF speed figures. I would love to see a modern study using today's more accurate modern speed and pace figures, which is why I anticipating your current study on pace patterns.

[thaskalos]

I believe his study was based on data collected over several years. In any case, while large sample sizes are fine, they are often over estimated by the general public. I agree that in certain specific situations sample size needed to be limited, but he handled these professionally. Exactly what I have been advising you to anticipate in your own study of pace patterns with suggestions you have been getting to include multiple variables. Much more important is how the data is collected and used. He also gave excellent explanations for his findings consistent with logic and science. His use of regression analysis to develop a comprehensive betting method that weighed all the handicapping factors according to research findings was brilliant.

As far as applicability, 82% of Amazon customers gave his book their top rating. I observed that his findings hold up from my own experience and observations spanning 60 years.

His methodology could not be criticized by anyone with formal training in research methodology. Take it from me, as someone well known for my critical approach to how research is done, Quirin's work is excellent, notwithstanding the criticisms of those who are attached to the handicapping theories that came about before modern research methodology was used in the field. I know you are familiar with who I am referring to.

It's only limitation I see is that he had to use the old inaccurate DRF speed figures. I would love to see a modern study using today's more accurate modern speed and pace figures, which is why I anticipating your current study on pace patterns.

Two questions for you, Bob:

1.) Who could this "archaic" handicapper be?

And, 2.) Do you think that you can beat him in a handicapping contest?

As they say..."talk is cheap".

[Tom]

I think a serious 16yo can come up with good angles at that age that he will not remember as he becomes "matured" and "educated" just as I did at 10yo.

Remember Bubbles?
He did ok! :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Light, I learn by writing things down in Hilroy notebooks and I mean EVERYTHING! From my trips to the track, to mentors teaching me the ways of their handicapping, to stats about my selections. And I can remember ANYTHING!

Most important thing you can do - RECORDS!
If your record keeping doesn't make you a winner, at least you will have something to read in the poorhouse.

[cj]

Whatever you do, don't go the conventional route to start, that road has no profit in it......Go outside the box, go contrarian, and read Kinky Handicapping by Mark Cramer.

I agree going conventional will eventually get you in trouble, but I also think you have to learn the fundamentals first.

[AndyC]

I agree going conventional will eventually get you in trouble, but I also think you have to learn the fundamentals first.

What would you consider the fundamentals to be? And aren't the so-called fundamentals part of going conventional?

[thaskalos]

IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research. No matter how "unconventional" a popular handicapping author may initially be...his popularity won't keep him unconventional for long. Such is the price of "fame"...

[CheckMark]

IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research. No matter how "unconventional" a popular handicapping author may initially be...his popularity won't keep him unconventional for long. Such is the price of "fame"...

Are you saying that my "popularity won't keep me unconventional for long?" or is this for someone else? :eek:

[thaskalos]

Are you saying that my "popularity won't keep me unconventional for long?" or is this for someone else? :eek:

SRU...welcome back to the board. :):ThmbUp:

[CheckMark]

SRU...welcome back to the board. :):ThmbUp:

Thanks?

[AndyC]

IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research....

Completely agree. It's hard to do when first starting out so most people turn to books where they believe every word that is written. I believe it would be better to develop or improve ones research skills and attack racing from a blank slate.

[Buckeye]

and I thought we were talking about books! :)

OK, I'll play, Money Secrets At The Racetrack by Barry Meadow.

[CheckMark]

and I thought we were talking about books! :)

OK, I'll play, Money Secrets At The Racetrack by Barry Meadow.

I thought that too! :bang:

[thaskalos]

Completely agree. It's hard to do when first starting out so most people turn to books where they believe every word that is written. I believe it would be better to develop or improve ones research skills and attack racing from a blank slate.

If we were talking about something like sports-betting, then a "blank slate" might be preferable for a total beginner...because our team sporting events have become part of the fabric of our society, and the interest in them is already implanted in all of us. But horse racing has gotten removed from the American sports-scene to the extent where the vast majority of the "interested beginners" know next to NOTHING about the game. Where but to the well-meaning advice of a misinformed friend can the total novice turn for any direction about this game, if he refuses to read an introductory-level handicapping book? How can he even realize on his own what sort of "individual effort" is necessary for the endeavor? No...he shouldn't believe everything that he reads in such a book...just as he wouldn't fully believe what he reads in any OTHER book. But I have a hard time believing that the interested beginner would be better off following his own "instincts"...instead of picking up a decent introductory book on handicapping.

[Buckeye]

I agree with that.

Pick your poison and next read Handicapping Magic.

[AndyC]

If we were talking about something like sports-betting, then a "blank slate" might be preferable for a total beginner...because our team sporting events have become part of the fabric of our society, and the interest in them is already implanted in all of us. But horse racing has gotten removed from the American sports-scene to the extent where the vast majority of the "interested beginners" know next to NOTHING about the game. Where but to the well-meaning advice of a misinformed friend can the total novice turn for any direction about this game, if he refuses to read an introductory-level handicapping book? How can he even realize on his own what sort of "individual effort" is necessary for the endeavor? No...he shouldn't believe everything that he reads in such a book...just as he wouldn't fully believe what he reads in any OTHER book. But I have a hard time believing that the interested beginner would be better off following his own "instincts"...instead of picking up a decent introductory book on handicapping.

Give me a list of must know items for horse racing. And which book will provide such information free from opinion?

[Buckeye]

AndyC

I already did that.

What else do you want?

[CheckMark]

I agree with that.

Pick your poison and next read Handicapping Magic.

And how better is Handicappinbt Magic over RDSS software? And yes I do agree with my own opinion.

[AndyC]

AndyC

I already did that.

What else do you want?

Really? Money Secrets at the Track, and Handicapping Magic?

It is a gambling game. You need to know what constitutes a winning bet, what bets are available, the cost of a bet and how the payoffs are determined.

[thaskalos]

Give me a list of must know items for horse racing. And which book will provide such information free from opinion?

I'll do that after you place yourself in the position of the absolute beginner...so you can narrate for me what your first steps in the game would be. How would you proceed if you didn't even know what is meant by words such as "class", "speed" or 'pace'?

[Buckeye]

I think I'll just stand on what I just said AndyC.

[AndyC]

I'll do that after you place yourself in the position of the absolute beginner...so you can narrate for me what your first steps in the game would be. How would you proceed if you didn't even know what is meant by words such as "class", "speed" or 'pace'?

All 3 of those terms are meaningless and not needed. My first steps as an intelligent gambler but absolute beginner in racing would be to observe and compile data.

If you asked every person on this forum to define class, speed and pace I doubt that there would be much agreement. To bias a beginner with someones beliefs regarding such terms may not be at all productive.

[thaskalos]

All 3 of those terms are meaningless and not needed. My first steps as an intelligent gambler but absolute beginner in racing would be to observe and compile data.


And if the absolute beginner isn't as "intelligent" as you are?

[Buckeye]

I know nothing and I see nothing.

Furthermore, I don't take advice.

[thaskalos]

I know nothing...

Who can argue with you, when you make sense?

[Buckeye]

Please refer to Socrates.

Did I ever mention my minor was in Philosophy?

Good Luck.

[AndyC]

And if the absolute beginner isn't as "intelligent" as you are?

Surely you would agree that to be a successful gambler you will need at least a modicum of intelligence. There is no pathway to success with stupidity.

[CheckMark]

Surely you would agree that to be a successful gambler you will need at least a modicum of intelligence. There is no pathway to success with stupidity.

True that. Thought I was getting advice and not a debate between Donald trump and Hilary Clinton! :pound:

[AndyC]

I think I'll just stand on what I just said AndyC.

If that were the case you would be floating.

[AndyC]

True that. Thought I was getting advice and not a debate between Donald trump and Hilary Clinton! :pound:

Advice is as plentiful as air. Good advice may not be easy to discern and may not become apparent until many years later.

[Buckeye]

Thank you for taking a stand.

How many years?

This is here and this is now.

I'll give you another good book to read: Exotic Betting: How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets that Win Racing's Biggest Payoffs by Steven Crist.

[cj]

What would you consider the fundamentals to be? And aren't the so-called fundamentals part of going conventional?

I just mean you need to understand the game and what it is the competition is betting.

[ElKabong]

get every book on physicality you can get your hands on. Trillis Parker had a good one, but it would be tough to find.

The days of a "very good" handicapper making a consistent annual profit today are almost gone using traditional handicapping methods. It won't get any easier. You need an edge, physicality gives you that.

Requires a LOT of patience. If you bet one track each day you may get three or four bets a week, total. Any more than that, you will lose your ass. Keep bets to three or fewer per week using solid win bets on good looking horses that tower over the field physically and are contenders, you'll turn a profit.. Period. Please be warned, read this paragraph closely.

My advice to a young handicapper for books.

Steve davidowitz book, betting thoroughbreds (fundamentals)
Steve collison's The Claining Game (racing is a business, not a series of math quizzes. Lot of hyperbole in the book, just ignore it )
Trillis Parker, Horses Talk

Trillis Parker had a good video out, again it may be hard to find. I actually liked it better than the Joe takach videos (which were ok). I'd start right there.

[Maximillion]

Im not really a fan of the numbers used in Handicapping Magic but I think some of the concepts/tools in there are pretty good and hold up.... maybe more so the more experience and better you get at the game.

[AndyC]

I just mean you need to understand the game and what it is the competition is betting.

I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.

[Maximillion]

I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.

An expierienced, comprehensive type of approach even if conventional may give you a better idea of how a race or your potential horse is gonna get bet than trying to look at the tote imo.

[AndyC]

An expierienced, comprehensive type of approach even if conventional may give you a better idea of how a race or your potential horse is gonna get bet than trying to look at the tote imo.

What about an approach to value all contenders by probability and then letting the tote decide which one to bet? Ideally isn't that how gambling should be approached? Bet where there is value.

[Maximillion]

What about an approach to value all contenders by probability and then letting the tote decide which one to bet? Ideally isn't that how gambling should be approached? Bet where there is value.

In theory yes....in practice, for me anyway not so much.

[cj]

I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.

Sure, you have to understand the game to know what is going to be bet when it is too late for you to react.

[lefty359]

Pace Makes he Race
Modern Pace Handicapping
Handicapping Magic
Mitchell's Common Sense Books
Kinky Handicapping
Beyer On Speed

[kingfin66]

Pace Makes he Race
Modern Pace Handicapping
Handicapping Magic
Mitchell's Common Sense Books
Kinky Handicapping
Beyer On Speed

That is a nice set :ThmbUp:

[biggestal99]

When I was 16 my dad or my uncle had to make my bets for me. I wasn't allowed anywhere near the windows.


Mom went to New York OTB to make bets for me in the Winter of 1975.


Best horse payoff: Sew for Four at Hialeah (a Jack Leahy Paddock Echo's special) Paid huge bucks (I forget 35-1?) in the seperate NYCOTB pool back in the day.


Allan

[cj]

Mom went to New York OTB to make bets for me in the Winter of 1975.


Best horse payoff: Sew for Four at Hialeah (a Jack Leahy Paddock Echo's special) Paid huge bucks (I forget 35-1?) in the seperate NYCOTB pool back in the day.


Allan

But what did you get on the exchange? :) :lol::lol::lol:

[Actor]

The Handicapping Speed book, by Charles Carroll, is very good.
Carroll's book is one of the best. He debunks the myth that 1 length is equal to 1/5 second and explains how a Thoroughbred length is 8 feet. The commonly accepted 10 feet is for Clydesdales. He even discusses how Chaos Theory applies to racing and does everything with great wit. I used to use his speed figures and found them very good.I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.

Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.

The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.

If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.

[bobphilo]

I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.

Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.

The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.

If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.

That is what TRAKUS is doing in a different way by electronically tracking every horse, not just the leader, at each point of call. With this method the length of the horse is irrelevant. This is quite a difficult technological undertaking and one must expect occasional errors.

True, as far as adjustments for beaten lengths, the beaten lengths reported can vary for a number of reasons but if we are using the wrong measurement for a length to begin with this introduces an additional source of inaccuracy. All we can do is at least begin with accurate information to begin with. Small errors in premises of how long a length is are multiplied by the distance of the race which covers many lengths.
There are also methods for beaten lengths that do not involve class but something more accurate
to calculate how far behind the leader is in terms of time by using the horses actual velocity, to estimate how long it will take a horse to cover the time it's behind the leader.

[coachv30]

I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.

Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.

The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.

If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.

Correct me if I'm wrong here but there are a number of ways to look at this.

1) Using 1 length / 5th is a convenient standard to even the playing field, as long as it's used with all horses in the race....or just maybe evening the playing field may not be a good thing.

2) If you're calculating an internal final fraction based on lengths gained or lost, it's difficult to be accurate without taking into account the early fraction as well. If I know a horse was used hard in the first half of a race (assuming he's running 1 length per 5th, I think it's safe to say that in the late part of the race he's probably running less than a full length per 5th. The same has to hold true for a slow first half.


If I'm off base, I apologize.

[Actor]

I did a study of 182 races at Aqueduct, 6 furlongs on dirt, no mud, cheaper horses. The results indicated that the 5 lengths per second is reasonable at the 2nd call and finish. At the 1st call 6 lengths per second seems to be the norm.

When I get around to it I plan to repeat the study for other tracks, distances and classier horses. First I need to rewrite the software. At this point a lot of the math is manual.

[cj]

I did a study of 182 races at Aqueduct, 6 furlongs on dirt, no mud, cheaper horses. The results indicated that the 5 lengths per second is reasonable at the 2nd call and finish. At the 1st call 6 lengths per second seems to be the norm.

When I get around to it I plan to repeat the study for other tracks, distances and classier horses. First I need to rewrite the software. At this point a lot of the math is manual.

I've never found five lengths per second to be good enough at 6f unless it is a really slow track, even for the worst horses. Some horses that are not being persevered with much, sure, but not those in contention.

The truth is the rate varies from race to race, fraction to fraction, and depends on a lot of things. There really is no one size fits all.

[bobphilo]

I've never found five lengths per second to be good enough at 6f unless it is a really slow track, even for the worst horses. Some horses that are not being persevered with much, sure, but not those in contention.

The truth is the rate varies from race to race, fraction to fraction, and depends on a lot of things. There really is no one size fits all.

Exactly, The value of how long it takes a horse to run a length, or how many lengths a horse covers in a second depends on how fast the horse is actually running. Carroll finds that using 5 lengths per second more accurately describes harness racing than T-Breds. I find that the formula of 6 lengths per second to be the most accurate in most cases but there will be exceptions.
A more accurate method is to use that particular races' actual velocity in that race segment to calculate how long it to took to run the distance in beaten lengths from the leader and just add that to the leader's time.

[Actor]

A more accurate method is to use that particular races' actual velocity in that race segment to calculate how long it to took to run the distance in beaten lengths from the leader and just add that to the leader's time.Take it one more step. By using three points of call (1st, 2nd and final for sprints) we can compute the rate of deceleration and theoretically figure the velocity at any point in the race. Use the stretch call for verification. The math is laborious so it takes a computer.

[Buckeye]

I got a computer, it's not worth much, but I do hold it in very high regard.

[Nitro]

I am looking on returning my book "Investing at the Racetrack" to Amazon, but I was wondering if any of the titles below would be useful for a 16 year old. PLEASE REPLAY!

Any other books would be great! Thanks. :popcorn:

There have been quite a few suggestions about reading material to get better acquainted with a game that’s loaded with variety of opinions. Although at first glance this material might seem valid, I for one can’t say for sure how successful the authors of these books might have been using their own methodologies.

If you’re really interested in getting some worthwhile information I would suggest reading the material by the 2 most prolific and successful players of all time:
Pittsburg Phil & Bill Benter
You’ll certainly find that there’s a sharp contrast between them and their tactics.

Of course Pittsburg Phil’s information may seem dated, but if you read between the lines you’ll gain a real appreciation of his overall philosophy and a practical approach to the game. The “Axioms of Pittsburg Phil:
http://colinsghost.org/2010/05/racing-maxims-and-methods-of-pittsburg-phil-1908.html

If you’re looking for a more high-tech approach then read anything that was either authored by or written about Bill Benter.
(Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report by William Benter) https://www.scribd.com/doc/166556276/Benter
A recent interview:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

If you’re interested in knowing more about the horses themselves you might also want to read about one of the most significant aspects of the game called “physicality” authored by Joe Takach.
http://www.icapper.com/Takach_Nov1.html
http://www.icapper.com/Takach_Nov7.html
http://www.icapper.com/Takach_Nov14.html
Entire Index: http://www.icapper.com/

[Buckeye]

Thank you Nitro for the link to Pittsburgh Phil.