2019 Pegasus Cup to feature a Pick 24

[AlsoEligible]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/stronach-group-adds-grade-1-turf-race-to-2019-pegasus-world-cup/

The Stronach Group will also introduce a new wager, the Pegasus Pick 24. The Pegasus Pick 24 will offer up the chance to bet on the exact finish order for both the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, adding another layer to the race-day excitement. A whopping $5 million bonus awaits the lucky fan who hits on the Pegasus Pick 24.

Working in racing for the past decade, I've heard a lot of terrible, half-baked ideas. This one might take the cake.

Can't wait to be standing in line, waiting to get a bet in, while the guy in front of me is reading off (or trying to punch in) a bet of 1,2,3/1,2,3,4,5,6/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/8,9,10,11/9,10,11,12....WITH 1,2,3/1,2,3,4,5,6/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/8,9,10,11/9,10,11,12. :bang:

[GMB@BP]

5 million dollars....thats a joke, the odds are astronomical to hit that.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I can’t wait to play this

[Suff]

So they'd payout the pool because no carry over is possible?. I would think 6 correct would get you paid. Maybe 7? Wild bet.

NYRA had an exacta parlay for the Sword Dancer to the Travers. 2 million loyalty points shared with anyone who hit both exacta.

The exacta's were bangers, $145 and another, I forget , but near or over a $100.

I never heard home many loyalty points that the promotional bet paid out, I'm Still curious.

[camourous]

I'm sure they have a rule where if there is a DNF or a distanced horse that they will not pay out and instead keep all of the money

[rastajenk]

Is there a chapter in a handicapping book somewhere that explains how to handicap for 11th and 12th place? I may yet have some learnin' to do.:rolleyes:

[macguy]

That's the trend.
Offer new wagers that are increasingly more similar to lottery tickets.

Trying to get a few more of those power ball players to cross over and come to the track and bet instead.

[castaway01]

Is there a chapter in a handicapping book somewhere that explains how to handicap for 11th and 12th place? I may yet have some learnin' to do.:rolleyes:

I'll just tell you my pick---then you'll know 12th place. The other 11 are up to you.

[ZippyChippy423]

It’s no different then trying to pick a trifecta in 3 consecutive races with 15-20 horses each race. That was a bet in Japan called the “ triple trio” but not sure if it still exsists.

[cj]

It’s no different then trying to pick a trifecta in 3 consecutive races with 15-20 horses each race. That was a bet in Japan called the “ triple trio” but not sure if it still exsists.

It isn't remotely close to the same mathematically.

[lamboguy]

with the $5 million guarantee, its the same thing as a booking a bet. they might get something like $500,000 in business on this bet so they are laying you 10-1 on picking 24 horses.

the best thing that could happen is that someone actually picks the correct numbers, they will now get more people sucked in to play this thing the next time.

[chiguy]

I heard you have to pay $100 for a slot to play this bet. They are selling a million slots. Just a rumor I heard.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/ShamIAmNot/status/1042429137577603072

[AlsoEligible]

For those comparing it to a lottery bet, the odds of nailing the exact order of finish in a 12 horse field are 479 million to 1. And that's just the first race.

Not sure how to work out the math to include the second race, maybe someone smarter than me can figure it out. If it's simply double the odds, then you're looking at nearly a 1 in a billion shot.

By comparison, the odds of winning a Powerball jackpot are about 292 million to 1. So this wager is infinitely harder to win, and only offers a fraction of the payout.

Of course if someone does manage to hit this (probably an offshore whale that can cover a couple hundred thousand combinations), everyone is going to think back to the Breeder's Cup Pick 6 and assume the fix was in. Even if it is just blind dumb luck, no one will believe it. Only racing would risk giving itself another black eye on an unforced error, just to push a gimmick bet that no one asked for.

[Suff]

I heard you have to pay $100 for a slot to play this bet. They are selling a million slots. Just a rumor I heard.

That makes sense. Love or hate it, its an effort to tie the two products together. Belinda Stronach has ideas for blending their assets.


Vegas model. Only 48% of revenue is from Gaming, 52% from hospitality. Stronach group has eyes on the full suite of entertainment, gaming and media.

[thaskalos]

Will this be a $1 wager?

[AskinHaskin]

For those comparing it to a lottery bet, the odds of nailing the exact order of finish in a 12 horse field are 479 million to 1. And that's just the first race.

Not sure how to work out the math to include the second race, maybe someone smarter than me can figure it out. If it's simply double the odds, then you're looking at nearly a 1 in a billion shot.

By comparison, the odds of winning a Powerball jackpot are about 292 million to 1. So this wager is infinitely harder to win, and only offers a fraction of the payout.

Of course if someone does manage to hit this (probably an offshore whale that can cover a couple hundred thousand combinations), everyone is going to think back to the Breeder's Cup Pick 6 and assume the fix was in. Even if it is just blind dumb luck, no one will believe it. Only racing would risk giving itself another black eye on an unforced error, just to push a gimmick bet that no one asked for.


Two unique occurrences, each at 479-million-to-1, should be multiplied, rather than added.

Same as with a basic Daily Double.


(1 in 12) x (1 in 12) = 144

[AskinHaskin]

Last time racing offered a wager with that many combinations, most were unable to play the wager because most of the tote systems could not handle the range of possibilities.



combinations (12 horse fields) : 229,442,532,802,560,000


229 Quadrillion, 442 Trillion, 532 Billion, 802 Million, 560 thousand


Last time something similar was offered in racing, the task had more than twice as many combinations.

The handle was $6223, and there was a single winning (consolation)


Don't spend all night handicapping...

[AskinHaskin]

(in layman's terms, that is 3 times as challenging as winning BOTH Powerball AND Mega Millions with one combination/ticket in each lottery)

[AlsoEligible]

In that case the odds of hitting this wager are 229,441,000,000,000,000:1. So we're saying there's a chance? :D

Hell, TSG might as well advertise a $5 billion bonus to whoever hits this, because there's virtually no chance of it happening. At least that might get some more suckers to put their money in.

Last time racing offered a wager with a similar-ish number of combinations, most were unable to play the wager because the tote could not handle the range of possibilities.

I think where the tote struggles on wagers like this are box/wheel bets that exponentially increase the number of combinations covered on a single ticket. I wouldn't be surprised to see this limited to only straight bets, which will essentially make it a true lottery wager.

[castaway01]

In that case the odds of hitting this wager are 229,441,000,000,000,000:1. So we're saying there's a chance? :D

Hell, TSG might as well advertise a $5 billion bonus to whoever hits this, because there's virtually no chance of it happening. At least that might get some more suckers to put their money in.



I think where the tote struggles on wagers like this are box/wheel bets that exponentially increase the number of combinations covered on a single ticket. I wouldn't be surprised to see this limited to only straight bets, which will essentially make it a true lottery wager.

I was going to say that the real odds are probably slightly better than that because obviously some horses have a better chance of finishing first than others (it's not 12 random numbers but horses that will be from 3-5 to 99-1, or whatever). But what would that do, lower it to a billion to 1? :lol:

I really think that's what racing WANTS, a true lottery wager that somehow catches on like Powerball where people with no knowledge of racing bet random numbers in hopes of winning tens or hundreds of millions at once. And hell, I'd want that too if I was in track management. These jackpot bets are a tiny successful step in that direction (successful being a relative term). But even in my wildest imagination I don't see them getting from point A to point Z. Maybe if you could somehow get a Kentucky Derby bet where you pick the first 8 or 10 horses?

[the little guy]

They should realize the foolishness of this idea, which will generate next to no handle, and perhaps offer a twin tri, with maybe a 20 cent minimum, which could actually generate significant handle.

All ideas aren't good ideas.

[AskinHaskin]

In that case the odds of hitting this wager are 229,441,000,000,000,000:1. So we're saying there's a chance? :D

Hell, TSG might as well advertise a $5 billion bonus to whoever hits this, because there's virtually no chance of it happening. At least that might get some more suckers to put their money in.



I think where the tote struggles on wagers like this are box/wheel bets that exponentially increase the number of combinations covered on a single ticket. I wouldn't be surprised to see this limited to only straight bets, which will essentially make it a true lottery wager.


Uh, your rounding-error alone is 1.5 trillion plus.


And with regard to the tote, I think the mere 'grid' for all possible outcomes is simply too great for it to facilitate (and accomplish other things at the same time).


Indeed there was one tote system that was taking the last big one like this, but a big-name entity as reliant upon its entire simulcast network as Pegasus/Gulfstream is, would simply never (under present limitations) allow such an absurd notion to be implemented.

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/stronach-group-adds-grade-1-turf-race-to-2019-pegasus-world-cup/



Working in racing for the past decade, I've heard a lot of terrible, half-baked ideas. This one might take the cake.

Can't wait to be standing in line, waiting to get a bet in, while the guy in front of me is reading off (or trying to punch in) a bet of 1,2,3/1,2,3,4,5,6/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/8,9,10,11/9,10,11,12....WITH 1,2,3/1,2,3,4,5,6/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/8,9,10,11/9,10,11,12. :bang:
The above ticket is not possible as all horses in each race need to be in the sequence somewhere, but I get your point...

[098poi]

Excellent quote from a reply to the article,



As Milton Berle once aptly put it, "The track is the only place where the windows clean the people" :D


I think there is more of a chance of an asteroid hitting the earth between these 2 races than anyone hitting it.

Remarkably dumb idea.

[AskinHaskin]

The above ticket is not possible as all horses in each race need to be in the sequence somewhere, but I get your point...

True observation.

But it would take merely adding #3 in the 3rd rung in each race to make this a viable ticket. (which would entail 82,944 combinations) (and that only because the ticket is severely limited in many/most areas)

[PICSIX]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

[mikekk]

I wouldn't bet into this if Bill Gates and Warren Buffett BOTH gave me all their money!

But I AM interested in the logistics of the thing. What constitutes a winning wager? IE, if you nail the first leg (all 12 in the correct order !!!!), but blow the second, is that better or worse than nailing the first 6 finishers in both legs? Is it better to get the first 6 in the first leg, and nail the second? Gulfstream is going to get its ass sued off over this thing unless they have some rules covering every possible contingency...and My God, is there ever going to be a LOT of contingencies!

And who is this donkey bet aimed at? I can't see whales betting it big (I doubt their proficiency at picking finishing for instance,7th is any better than ours; and a guaranteed $5 million for a once a year bet is not a huge incentive for revamping their software/data bases to make such a bet). Other tracks picking up GP's signal? They'd have to change THEIR betting software to accommodate it, with no assurance that anyone is going to even bet it. ADW's? Same point.

This is going to be a well-deserved disaster for them

Mike

[Tom]

I heard that if you hit 23 out of 24 you get a free Pegasus Travel Mug. :headbanger:

[Buckeye]

I don't know, sounds like a double Superfecta,

What could possibly go wrong?

[Buckeye]

It isn't remotely close to the same mathematically.

12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9?

[Buckeye]

times all the other placings?

Wow.