horse handicapping seminar

[lurker]

I have a friend who is looking to put together a handicapping seminar. He asked me which 3 handicappers I would want to see and which one I thought is overrated. He said that his obvious choices were Beyer, Ragazin and Brown. He asked me to post this and get a list of the three that posters on this board would want to see and hear besides Beyer, Ragazin and Brown, and who they thought was overrated. I said Fierro, Fotius, and Meadows. As far as overrated I felt Crist. Please post which 3 you would like and who would be a pass for you.

Thanks
Lurker

[NoDayJob]

:D How 'bout Moe, Curley and Larry? Nix on Carrottop :D

NDJ

[Zaf]

My Choices : Litfin , Brohamer , Pizzolla

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

Schwartz, Suff, and CJ.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tom
Schwartz, Suff, and CJ.

CJ for sure............how about SAL........and maybe PurplePower

[Dancer's Image]

Originally posted by zafonic
My Choices : Litfin , Brohamer , Pizzolla

ZAFONIC

Who is Pizzolla?

[midnight]

Glendon Jones, Mark Cramer, and Barry Meadows. I'd take a pass on Len Ragozin. Nothing against the man, but his speeches tend to be self proclamations of greatness and commercials for his product.

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Dancer's Image
Who is Pizzolla?

Michael Pizzolla author of Handicapping Magic & Master Magician Software. I do not use his methods or software , but I am very impressed with the way he approaches handicapping & wagering.

ZAFONIC

[andicap]

Originally posted by lurker
I have a friend who is looking to put together a handicapping seminar. He asked me which 3 handicappers I would want to see and which one I thought is overrated. He said that his obvious choices were Beyer, Ragazin and Brown. He asked me to post this and get a list of the three that posters on this board would want to see and hear besides Beyer, Ragazin and Brown, and who they thought was overrated. I said Fierro, Fotius, and Meadows. As far as overrated I felt Crist. Please post which 3 you would like and who would be a pass for you.

Thanks
Lurker

how about that public handicapper who made the most money at Saratoga? He's walked the walk in public. Who else has done that?
I could be wrong but I believe it was Seth Murrow.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, by my count, it was Steve Matthews from Newsday.

[Tom]

Originally posted by JustRalph
CJ for sure............how about SAL........and maybe PurplePower


Sam I am, for sure.
I already got some lessons from him in KOTH! LOL!

[cato]

Pizzolla,
Mark Cramer,
Jim Cramer,
B. Meadows,
Brohamer if he is still an active player--he would be interesting because I would like to hear if has modified his approach

[melman]

Easy, Dave Boyce Maurice Buter and George Hadden because these three guys bet for there income. The problem of course is these people are not public speakers which is another talent altogether. With Dave Boyce you may have a shot however as he has done FREE seminars that he had total control of at the Valley Forge Turf Club (An OTB for Philly Park). He has done them the last two years for the KD and at Breeder's Cup day. So he is able to talk in front of a large group of people. Then again Dave may not want to be away from the betting windows for to long. It would cost him money.

[Tom]

If it is a seminar on harness, then of course our own melman and JoeG would be featured.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Ellis Star; Barry Meadow; Bobby Frankel.

[lurker]

I find it interesting that so many agree on Meadows. Any thoughts on my other 2, Fierro or Fotius?

[Zaf]

A lot seem to agree on Marc Cramer also, I almost put him in my top 3 as well.

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Originally posted by lurker
I find it interesting that so many agree on Meadows. Any thoughts on my other 2, Fierro or Fotius?

Fotius

I read his book blinkers off and have seen a few interviews with him. I do not know a whole lot about the xtra's. Does anyone out there use them, any comments ???

[mudnturf]

Originally posted by zafonic
A lot seem to agree on Marc Cramer also, I almost put him in my top 3 as well.

ZAFONIC

Mark now lives in Paris (FR), but I'm pretty sure if you paid his expenses, he'd be glad to oblige.
I'll be seeing him in a few weeks at the Arc.

[Secretariat]

Here's my three:

1. Steve Wolson
2. Dave Schwartz
3. Ken Massa
4. Nathan Misceroni

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by mudnturf
Mark now lives in Paris (FR), but I'm pretty sure if you paid his expenses, he'd be glad to oblige.
I'll be seeing him in a few weeks at the Arc.

How about you Mr Tomlinson? I'd love to hear about how you make and then use those numbers all of us have grown so fond of.

[Shacopate]

1. "Big" Don Christiansen
2. Gibson Carouthers.
3. Steve Davidowitz.

[cj]

Originally posted by Tom
If it is a seminar on harness, then of course our own melman and JoeG would be featured.

Then we'd need four, because you have to invite Exactor Man and Mr. Lucky!!!

[mudnturf]

Originally posted by betchatoo
How about you Mr Tomlinson? I'd love to hear about how you make and then use those numbers all of us have grown so fond of.

Betchatoo,
I'd be happy to send you a copy of the article I wrote about that subject. It was in the July '04 edition of American Turf Monthly.
Just send me your email address.....I'm at mudders@optonline.net

[andicap]

why no mentions for our Dick Schmidt?

Richie Schwartz, one of the most succesful horseplayers in NY history. (he now uses Fotias' sheets so could contact him through Equiform).

CJ Milkowski, assuming he can get leave.


Why invite all the usual suspects who always speak at these things?

with these three you get a bit of old Sartin combined with new creativity, a bit of Sheets/Equiform (Richie used to use Raggies), and an excellent handicapper who makes his own figures and is consistenly thinking outside the box.

I would a good money manager but why does it always have to be Meadows? We need new voices at these seminars not the same tired ones who populate the DRF Expos and such.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by andicap

Why invite all the usual suspects who always speak at these things?

We need new voices at these seminars not the same tired ones who populate the DRF Expos and such.

An excellent point. Personally, I would like to see someone who could give a talk about using a contrarian approach to handicapping - using info in the DRF, but not the speed figs and other common info that people use.

I would also like to see someone give a talk on using databases in their handicapping.

Let's see, money management and betting structure are always good.

And, how about Joe Takach to talk about physicality?

[Tom]

Davidowitz....I attended an evening promotion Fort Erie did once on a Friday night for Saturday's card. Steve was the guest-he talked about handicapping, answered questions, and then handicapped the whole card. He was a very interesting speaker, and he has a lot of insights into looking at a race that were well received. Funniest thing was he was looking at a line from Finger LAkes and asked the crowd..."When did they start holding harness races at FL?" LOL!

Dick Schmidt - Talk about the usual suspects, he taught me for many years in Albany and Baltimore. I really like his stubborness in looking at races. He is also an entertaining speaker. It's just that he always gives out homework! :rolleyes:

[cj]

You don't hear his name much, but I'd love to hear from Mark Hopkins.

[the little guy]

While I don't think Mark does much handicapping anymore, there was a time when he had an extremely good opinion.

[kenwoodallpromos]

For me, Beyers is a pass.
Not because of any personal opinions.
For me he would be a pass because he does not bet straight bets; and his speed figures are already very well known and listed universally.
I assume you want well-known people but if not I can email you about my tracks speed and bias ideas and my place/show betting method. I have not written a book and do not have a website.

[Tom]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
You don't hear his name much, but I'd love to hear from Mark Hopkins.

A+ handicapper.
I attended two track seminars he held at FL a few years ago.
They guy is a gooooood capper. He knows of what he speaks. His way of using the Beyers to interpret other factors and moves is truly insightful. He taugh me stuff about my own track that I did not know. And he steered my thinking into hitting back to back 7-1 shots.
I think a book by him would be worth any price.

[lurker]

I am going to cut and paste this entire thread to send to my friend. Please add as many more as you can.

Thanks

[shanta]

1) Andy Cylke
2) Bob Purdy
3) Dick Schmidt

[socantra]

Originally posted by shanta
1) Andy Cylke
2) Bob Purdy
3) Dick Schmidt


I know who Purdy and Schmidt are. Who's Andy Cylkie?

socantra

[shanta]

Originally posted by socantra
I know who Purdy and Schmidt are. Who's Andy Cylkie?

socantra


Andy Cylke was ( is?) a Sartin user who was especially deadly on turf races. Beyer mentioned him in one of his books. I have heard stories about him from a couple of people I know out in So Cal.

Because turf is a major headache for me he would be a natural to listen to.

Richie

[Zaf]

Shanta,

Do you know what aspect of the Sartin Meth. he keyed on in turf races % E, SP , LF ????


ZAFONIC

[Tom]

Zafonic.....I believe it was SP.

BTW, FL contest is November 13...details should be out this week.
Three more years of this and I will a complete set of dinner glasses! LOL!

[Zaf]

Thanks Tom.

ZAFONIC

[shanta]

Originally posted by zafonic
Shanta,

Do you know what aspect of the Sartin Meth. he keyed on in turf races % E, SP , LF ????


ZAFONIC


Hi Zafonic,
I thnk it was Sustained pace as Tom said. I am not sure if he used energy etc.

Good luck in the contest Tom!:)

Richie

[andicap]

Tom,

Yes, Dick Schmist is not a "fresh face," but he hasn't done much lately in the way of seminars and I think his handicapping and betting have taken new turns since the old Sartin days.

---------

Andy Cylke would be an excellent choice!

He was on the old Prodigy board a lot and is one of the best handicappers around. A very nice guy to boot. Always generous with his thoughts and his time. He hit some monster pik-6's I recall.

He is also on that NTRA Players Panel. He hangs out around SoCal tracks (or used to) so the people there would know how to contact him.

[haappyy]

what about The proffesor Gordon Jones and Patrick McQuiggan?

[lurker]

My friend is quite happy about the responce that we have given him. He would like to know what peopled liked and did not like about the DRF Horse Players Expo. For example would a one day format have been better, do you feel that you reeceived fair value for the entrance fee, did you like the book signing, did you find the seminars informative, did you like the contest etc. I am sure that this fedback will lead to an interesting announcement of such a seminar in the near future.

[highnote]

Originally posted by zafonic
Fotius

I read his book blinkers off and have seen a few interviews with him. I do not know a whole lot about the xtra's. Does anyone out there use them, any comments ???

Cary Fotias is a very good handicapper. That's why you saw him on the interview shows a lot at Saratoga this summer. That's also part of the reason why Steve Matthews of Newsday won the public handicapper's contest. Steve uses Fotias' XTRAS. He also works hard. You can read more about Fotias and The XTRAS at http://www.equiform.com

Mark Cramer, Jim Quinn and Barry Meadows have called the ideas in his book "Blinkers Off" revolutionary. You won't see that kind of endorsement everyday. If these three guys said it, then there is probably at least a little bit of truth to it. (I leave it to the interested readers to decide for themselves if my last statement was an understatement).

I am biased. I know Cary Fotias. But he has a good website with some good information that maybe not everyone on this board has seen.

Good luck,
John

[Tom]

Xtras for the Super Derby are free today at his website. Good chance to look at them up close before a race is run and see what they have to offer.

[Zaf]

It looks like everyone is coming into the race with a 75. I'm sure the winner is there :D

ZAFONIC

[highnote]

Originally posted by zafonic
It looks like everyone is coming into the race with a 75. I'm sure the winner is there :D

ZAFONIC

Zafonic,

Here is my analysis of the Super Derby based on looking at Fotias' XTRAS. This should probably be in a different section, but since we're talking about Fotias' speed figures and public handicappers it makes sense to put it here (I guess?).

Imperialism's last race was a 76" and he also has the best last race number. I think those two ticks after the 76 are 1/4 points. So he has a 76 1/2. His last four race figures are 76", 78, 76+ and 76. On final numbers he looks the best. He has very low pace numbers. Guess he'll be closing fast if the pace collapses. He's also a son of Langfuhr. Langfuhr was good at 7 furlongs. I'm not convinced Imperialism can win at this distance. All his wins have been at shorter. Not much value at 8/5 ML.

Caballero Negro is the interesting horse to me except that his good numbers are from shorter races. His last race he ran a 75- while running a 78 pace. And the race before that he ran a 71+ with an 82 pace number. I'd use him underneath in exotics.

Brit's Jules has run in his last three races 75+, 75 and 76+. His pace numbers for those races were 73 , 76, and 81. So if Brit can run back to that 76+ with an 81 pace he'll be tough to beat. Plus he should be fit. He could regress, but his figures suggest that he's fit. I like his sire, Jules. Pedigreewise, Brit can get the distance.

Borrego ran a 77+ in the Ark last spring. He's got a prep race under his belt. His back figs are as good as anyone in this race and his pace numbers are competitve with Brit's. I can see him winning this if he's fit. One big knock is his dirt performance. He's only won once on dirt -- an optional claimer. His grand sire is Sadler's Wells. Sadler's Wells' offspring have never won a single Graded Stakes on dirt. I don't know about his grand children, but it's a fact I'd consider carefully before betting Borrego.

To make a good score, you've got to beat the two ML choices -- Borrego and Imperialism. It's hard enough to beat one favorite, let alone two. This would not be a race I'd step up and bet big, however, there might others out there who see something I don't.

My bet would be Brit's Jules based on his competitive pace and final numbers and his current level of fitness. If he can sit behind the fast pace that Caballero Negro and South Africa might set, he has a chance.

Borrego and Imperialism are the class of the field, but are vulnerable if they aren't fit enough. And both have pedigree knocks.


So there you have it. Brit's Jules to win. Box in exactas and tri's with Borrego and Imperialism. I'd also use Caballero Negro a little on the bottom of exotics.

John

[formula_2002]

I would suggets at least one actuary..

Joe M