G1 Woodbine Mile - 9/15/18

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Really solid card at Woodbine, and the feature is the G1 Woodbine Mile which features a solid and competitive field.


:1: Good Samaritan: Connections obviously haven't been all that inspired by his past couple dirt efforts, and now he switches back to turf while tossing on some blinkers. To be honest, it kind of reeks of desperation, but his two turf races as a 3YO were pretty good. He'll be a deserving price, and maybe the stars align for some needed change for this one.


:2: La Sardane: The lone lady in the race couldn't hang on at 7Fs against a couple of other peers in here at this very venue last out while getting her deserved weight allowance. Hard to believe she can turn the tables on those two along with some other solid entrants in here. Her Intercontinental 3 back at Belmont is still pretty interesting though, and she was game that day. These just look to be too tough for her today.


:3: Delta Prince: 9 career races and 9 board finishes including 4 wins. He is also a lightly raced 5YO that is in the prime of his career and getting better. Major contender that nearly ran down Voodoo Song last out.



:4: Vanish: That was a massive upgrade in class last out, and he answered the bell while getting handily beat by Mr. Havercamp. He is still just a 4YO, so improvement can be made, but he'd need to make massive improvement to likely even hit the board here. He likes this track, so maybe a bottom end of Tris and Supers could be in order?


:5: Mr Havercamp: As a Caddyshack aficionado, I do love the name of this one. :ThmbUp: He is an all or nothing sort in which he has 6 wins in 9 races and no other board finishes. This will be a solid step up in class, and he is 4 for 4 at this venue, so why not? Should be a solid consideration for exotics, but anything at less than 8/1 for a Win wager seems like a reach.


:6: Lord Glitters: May well end up as the post time favorite as he ventures in from across the pond with some very solid racing under his belt. You don't find many Euros with a line of 17 (6-8-1) while running in G1/G2 company including two runner up finishes as this summer's Ascot meet. While getting Lasix for the first time, he is also getting a couple of pounds against some of his tougher competition in here. Major contender.


:7: Oscar Performance: Well, if you are a 'Vanned Off' next out angle player, then this is your guy. This is a legit racehorse that already has 3 G1 wins, but never against elder company. He is yet another all or nothing sort in which he has 7 wins in 13 races with a lone 3rd place finish to his credit. His G3 Poker win 3 back, may well have been his career best to date. If you can get past his last, then he makes a lot of sense in here as a big time contender.


:8: Divisidero: The old war horse has been a mainstay in the graded stakes turf racing circuit for a while now. He is always dangerous, and never without a chance. He is training well coming in, and some soft turf should be to his liking. Dangerous entry at what could be a nice price.


:9: Stormy Antarctic: Interesting pond jumper with American influence on top and Euro influence on bottom. He has shipped well before racing in Great Britain, France, Germany, and Ireland in his past. His last 5 races are pretty solid, and he has pretty much been a turf miler in his career. He'll be an interesting tote watch, and could get overlooked as a guy with a very solid chance in here.

[Someday Silent]

That's a good, thorough analysis. I'm staying away from Oscar Performance. I'm not sure about La Sardane, but Drysdale usually isn't the reckless sort so there must be a reason why she's in here. I like Delta Prince and Divisidero the most. Either way, the Woodbine Mile is usually a very interesting event.

[Tom]

Too early to pick, but my line is looking like this

:7: 40%
:5: 18%
:3: 14%
:1: 6%
:8: 6%

Rest - 16%

[Secondbest]

I'm going with Lord Glitters. He ran second in the Queen Anne at Ascot against the top milers in the world. At 20-1.Also ran 3rd in the Sussex at Goodwood.
I'm using Delta Prince and Oscar performance underneath.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

That's a good, thorough analysis. I'm staying away from Oscar Performance. I'm not sure about La Sardane, but Drysdale usually isn't the reckless sort so there must be a reason why she's in here. I like Delta Prince and Divisidero the most. Either way, the Woodbine Mile is usually a very interesting event.


:2: La Sardane is a bit interesting in that there really isn't much speed at all in here. Yes, I know it is a turf race, but it is truly littered with deep closers (even for a turf race, and it is only a Mile afterall).



She is getting a solid weight allowance, so why not flat out gun from the start and look to build up a 10 to 12 length lead if you can and try to fend them off?



She had the lead in the last, but not at really frisky fractions, and was contested throughout. Why not just completely send and roll the dice when I'm sure all the other contenders in here will give her little to no chance and let her go. She isn't gonna sit and then close to beat these like she did in the Intercontinental.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm going with Lord Glitters. He ran second in the Queen Anne at Ascot against the top milers in the world. At 20-1.Also ran 3rd in the Sussex at Goodwood.
I'm using Delta Prince and Oscar performance underneath.


I'll be shocked if Lord Glitters isn't the favorite.


If he is above 2/1 on good to soft turf, people should be double-fisting through the windows.

[Secondbest]

I know he'll be short odds but he will be tough to beat.

[jay68802]

Fun night tonight, fun race to look at. The Ugly Bartender Says...

:1: Good Samaritain 10-1 Horse fits here, and the odds say "lets play". Close's at this distance, and the jockey is hot now. Upset special.

:2: La Sardane 15-1 ML says a lot, why here? Can't steal this one and should be 50-1.

:3: Delta Prince 5-2 See's better and can not finish. See's better today and can NOT finish. Nice to see this ML.

:4: Vanish 20-1 Name say's it all. Bet horse's like this and your bankroll will vanish.

:5: Mr. Havercamp 6-1 Should be the favorite. 2 "bad" races had a different jockey. Key horse.

:6: Lord Glitters 4-1 Strong races, ships here and the travel may effect this one. Low price says bet with, and against. Hate horses like this.

:7: Oscar Performance 7-2 Jockey stopped the horse when the race was lost in the last. That said, wrong running style here. Pass

:8: Divisidero 8-1 Can't blame people that bet this one.Always runs his race, but is a superfecta key.

:9: Stormy Antarctic 8-1 Over bet because he comes from across the pond, better chances elsewhere.

:10: Husker's VS The Men Of Troy Troy likes to pull upsets. Can you say LSU? QB for the Red team is a question, but the ground game is strong for the home team. Give the points away.

:1::5::6:

[sammy the sage]

:2: La Sardane is a bit interesting in that there really isn't much speed at all in here. Yes, I know it is a turf race, but it is truly littered with deep closers (even for a turf race, and it is only a Mile afterall).



She is getting a solid weight allowance, so why not flat out gun from the start and look to build up a 10 to 12 length lead if you can and try to fend them off?



She had the lead in the last, but not at really frisky fractions, and was contested throughout. Why not just completely send and roll the dice when I'm sure all the other contenders in here will give her little to no chance and let her go. She isn't gonna sit and then close to beat these like she did in the Intercontinental.

Love this IF THE turf course is FIRM for this horse....otherwise #6 L.G. towers over this field....problem is...what are THEIR intentions for this race....pretty obvious THAT THE Breeder's Cup is THE target...if this is a win you're in race...then yes...all systems go...if not...well...how knows...I certainly don't...

[jimmyb]

:1: WP

:1::5::8: ex and tri box

:1::5::6::8: :7:dime super box

[Robert Fischer]

:3: Should have been 4th public choice in the 4 Star Dave, but weird inside money had him taking 2nd most behind false favorite Yoshida in multis and then in the actual WPS betting. Ran best and only lost because Voodoo Song surprised and held on longer than expected. Was that an insiders 'betting coup' thing? Or has this horse suddenly moved forward for good, and is a lock to win or contend today?

:7: Jose ran that Arlington Million he had absolutely no idea of the track/1st-turn configuration. Post 9, right near the 1st-turn, and no plan whatsoever? Puzzling ride. It was good for team Brown's 3 or 4? contenders, but hard on the horse and Lynch. I guess it's one of those things you just 'take' if you're Brian Lynch. He didn't publicly trash Ortiz's puzzling ride or even quietly remove Ortiz from the mount going forward. Tough to do, all things considered(enjoys shipping horses into NY for stakes, etc...) I guess. And, - he could well win today with a return to his good ride.

these two, and the two foreign shippers seem to be the most likely contenders, but the value isn't great.

Want no part in betting this race. Mildly interested in seeing how these 2 weird form horses do.

[letswastemoney]

If :6: Lord Glitters is really going to get bet down, then that helps :3: Delta Prince's odds.

At 3/1 or higher, :3: Delta Prince is fair.

[Afleet]

La Sardane should be loose on the lead. Lord Glitters top class. Stormy Antartica Group I placed two back. Delta Prince improving beyers.

Tri wheel:
:2:,:6:
:1:,:2:,:3:,:6:,:9:
:1:,:2:,:3:,:6:.:8:,:9:

[Secondbest]

I'm going with Lord Glitters. He ran second in the Queen Anne at Ascot against the top milers in the world. At 20-1.Also ran 3rd in the Sussex at Goodwood.
I'm using Delta Prince and Oscar performance underneath.

While I like my pick. It may be too chalky for me to bet. Will wait until a few minutes to post time.

[biggestal99]

La Sardane should be loose on the lead. Lord Glitters top class. Stormy Antartica Group I placed two back. Delta Prince improving beyers.

Tri wheel:
:2:,:6:
:1:,:2:,:3:,:6:,:9:
:1:,:2:,:3:,:6:.:8:,:9:

2 scratched

Allan

[PressThePace]

I'll take the :3: Delta Prince at odds of 3/1 or better.

[letswastemoney]

I expected :2: La Sardane to eat dead money and fail to hit the board, but with her scratch, I will just watch I think lol.

[Afleet]

thanks Allan; I'm going to Presque Isle for Sunday and Monday's card-not playing today. Will wait until tomorrow to lose!!

[Afleet]

I expected :2: La Sardane to eat dead money and fail to hit the board, but with her scratch, I will just watch I think lol.

dead money? that horse was going to be big balloons. My definition of dead money is a low odds horse w/no chance to win like Always Dreaming after the Derby. Fired against him every time after the derby; knew his derby run was a fluke

[Tom]

Too early to pick, but my line is looking like this

:7: 40%
:5: 18%
:3: 14%
:1: 6%
:8: 6%

Rest - 16%

Final look

:7: 7-2
:6: 7-2
:5: 4-1
:3: 9-2

[Immortal6]

The :6: at current odds of 4-1 is tempting but I'm gonna just have to key:7: Oscar Performance on top in exotics. If he runs his best race he crushes the field. I like the :1: :5: and :8: as board hitters and all are fair value right now. Think the :3: will sit another trip close to the pace to ensure a top 2-3 finish so we'll use him as an underneath key

Tri :7:/:3:/:1::5::8:
:7:/:1::5::8:/:3:

[Robert Fischer]

3 / most / most (most = all except 4 )
most / 3 / most
most / most / 3 =$18 (x0.20cents)

20cent trifecta box 3,6,7,8 =$4.80

20cent trifecta box 3,6,7,8,9 =$12

20cent trifecta box 3,5,6,7,8,9 =$24


($58.80 Total)

[098poi]

:5::7::8: Ex Box

[098poi]

:5::7::8: Ex Box


I just got home and threw this up just in time.


:7:
:5:
:9: $1 Ex pays $28.50 :eek:

[Robert Fischer]

3 / most / most (most = all except 4 )
most / 3 / most
most / most / 3 =$18 (x0.20cents)

20cent trifecta box 3,6,7,8 =$4.80

20cent trifecta box 3,6,7,8,9 =$12

20cent trifecta box 3,5,6,7,8,9 =$24


($58.80 Total)

lost 13cents on the Tri ($58.67) feels light, but that's what you get in 20cent wagers with 8 horses in the field, a favorite winning, and effectively 7 horses in the field (:4: being a very long shot).

Give Brian Lynch credit. He kept his cool after a questionable ride in the Arlington Million, played along, and was rewarded with a top ride this time.

[Afleet]

I just got home and threw this up just in time.


:7:
:5:
:9: $1 Ex pays $28.50 :eek:

nice hit!!

[098poi]

nice hit!!


Thank You

[Tom]

Final look

:7: 7-2
:6: 7-2
:5: 4-1
:3: 9-2

I shoulda left it alone.
I originally did not like the foreign horses, but gave in and added one. Killed my odds line. :mad:

[bobphilo]

I just got home and threw this up just in time.


:7:
:5:
:9: $1 Ex pays $28.50 :eek:

Congrats.
Winner went wire to wire getting away with a half in :48.78. Had enough left to finish last quarter in 21.63 and great final time of 1:33.12.

[098poi]

Congrats.
Winner went wire to wire getting away with a half in :48.78. Had enough left to finish last quarter in 21.63 and great final time of 1:33.12.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: