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traveler
09-10-2004, 12:59 PM
A couple months ago in the BRIS monthly newsletter, they showed a study of 5ooo(?) races where the favorite, when not the top Prime Power horse won at only a 27% clip and returned a negative 21%. Has anybody studied this at all? I imagine these figures will vary by track and sprint vs. route, low class races vs. high, etc. Any thoughts would be appreciated

JustMissed
09-10-2004, 01:40 PM
My son and I have used TNS Prime Power for over two years and have made it a big part of our handicapping.

We keep statistics for quite some time but after we began to trust it, we quit. If memory serves, the winner will be a top three prime power horse a large majority of the time.

Don't take my word though, you can easily check this yourself.

We use the Ultimate PP's with quick play comments. At the top they show four boxes with top three last speed, prime power, class rating, and best speed at distance.

For a week, just mark the runners in each of these boxes as to their finish position. You'll be surprised at the results.

Don't get me wrong. Prime power will not put you on an angle horse or a long shot.

We look for at least one prime bet per day and have found the prime prime to make it pretty easy to pick a winner.

When you catch a prime power rating that is 8 points or more above the 2nd best horse, and he's not a false favorite, take off the rubber band, cash your ticket and go home.

Hope this helps. While your at it, take a look at the race ratings also. After you determine the estimated race rating of today's race, look for a horse that is a Nines horse or been running good/even races at that race rating or higher than the other runners and you could be looking at the winner.

Good luck,

JM

formula_2002
09-10-2004, 04:43 PM
Originally posted by traveler
A couple months ago in the BRIS monthly newsletter, they showed a study of 5ooo(?) races where the favorite, when not the top Prime Power horse won at only a 27% clip and returned a negative 21%. Has anybody studied this at all? I imagine these figures will vary by track and sprint vs. route, low class races vs. high, etc. Any thoughts would be appreciated

This will interest you.

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

jackad
09-10-2004, 11:42 PM
JM
What is a "nines horse"?
Thanks.
Jack

JustMissed
09-11-2004, 12:28 PM
Originally posted by jackad
JM
What is a "nines horse"?
Thanks.
Jack

Jack, You ad a runner's finish position for the last three races and if that number is 9 or less, it is a candidate for contender selection.


For example 3 wins would be 3

1st, 3rd & 4th would be 8 & so forth.

Just an easy way to mark your runners as you go through your pp's and identify a horse that likes to finish in the money and may currently be in good form.

Good luck,

JM

formula_2002
09-12-2004, 12:05 PM
Just a point of information. I follow all 80+ Bris/All-ways data base factors. In any given race on any give day there will be at east one hose that has a superior win % and high ROI for any one of those 80 factors.

I'm looking at one right now Belmonts race today 7th race # 2 ALL HAIL STORMY. High ROI and high win% for atleast 8 of those factors at various gaps.

Joe M

Bill Cullen
09-17-2004, 12:29 PM
If you spend a little time reseraching the highest Prime Power rated horses as function of various handicapping factors, it soon becomes obvious what the major factors are that determine the Prime Power ratings. For non-maiden races on the dirt for 3 year olds & up, where all horses have at least 10 races in their pp's, I have a rating method that happens to pick the top prime power pick better than 80% of the time. This is just a coincidence since I didn't set out at all when developing the rating method to have anything to do with the Brisnet Prime Power ratings.

Here's a hint at the principle factors that seem to determine or correlate highly with the Brisnet Prime Power Rating:

1) Highest speeds last out used as an intra-race par filter
2) Highest speeds last out used a intra-race par filter at today's distance and surface
3) The serial recency of the two items above.

Bill C