Charting MLFs @BEL -- part 2 second half season!!!

[TheOracle]

The Morning Line Favorites at even money have lost 2 in a row on wet Surfaces at Belmont going back to 2015

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlevenswetbel.png

I don't think 3 in a row will happen today as Brown has left his even money MLF in for today's 2nd race!!!

2nd race
#2 Strategic Outlook

Besides this one and #3 Hay Field below, I don't think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do much today as they won 7 races yesterday!!!

5th race
#3 Hay Field

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfltthrbel.png


Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

Will track the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 over the course of the 2nd half of the Belmont Season

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/winsbelsep.png

Will also need to work on an algorithm to anticipate good days versus bad days for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

[TheOracle]

The Morning Line Favorites at even money have lost 2 in a row on wet Surfaces at Belmont going back to 2015

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlevenswetbel.png

I don't think 3 in a row will happen today as Brown has left his even money MLF in for today's 2nd race!!!

2nd race
#2 Strategic Outlook

Besides this one and #3 Hay Field below, I don't think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do much today as they won 7 races yesterday!!!

5th race
#3 Hay Field

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfltthrbel.png


Let's see what happens!!!

Brown disappointed us with #2 Strategic Outlook getting upset as the even money Morning Line Favorite.

I didn't think 3 losses in a row from even money Morning Line Favorites would happen but of course it did

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlflthrbelwet.png

However, #3 Hay Field came through for us with the win paying $12.10 across the board!!!

Congratulations for those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont have only won 9 of their last 31 races!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/winltthronebel.png

I am thinking think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do well (4+ wins) today!!!

Also will need to keep working on that algorithm

From among these today
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbel.png

I am leaning toward Handal's horse in the 6th race today at Belmont

6th race
#3 Wicked Trick

Let's see if Handal can get the win with this one today!!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont have only won 9 of their last 31 races!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/winltthronebel.png

I am thinking think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do well (4+ wins) today!!!

Also will need to keep working on that algorithm

From among these today
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbel.png

I am leaning toward Handal's horse in the 6th race today at Belmont

6th race
#3 Wicked Trick

Let's see if Handal can get the win with this one today!!!

#3 Wicked Trick finished 3rd today at Belmont.

I really thought the MLFs less than 3-1 would have had a much better day today but only 3 winners came from this group and all 3 were MLFs ending with 5

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelsxth.png

So 5ers beat other MLFs by a 3 to 0 margin today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelchrtsepsxtn.png

I was thinking it would be a big day for the MLFs less than 3-1 but there were only 3 winners from this group today

[TheOracle]

There was only 1 winner from this group yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeatatbel.png



1 09-21-2018 1st race 2 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs A W Dutrow 2/1# Dirt
2 09-21-2018 2nd race 6 Keota (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 6/5# Turf
3 09-21-2018 3rd race 3 Golden Award (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs W I Mott 5/2# Dirt
4 09-21-2018 3rd race 7 Our Circle of Love (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 09-21-2018 5th race 2 Cilantro (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
6 09-21-2018 5th race 4 Land Mine (NY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles P M Serpe 7/5# Dirt
7 09-21-2018 8th race 4 Out of Orbit (NY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs P M Serpe 5/2# Dirt
8 09-21-2018 8th race 5 Makin Out (NY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs B N Levine 9/5# Dirt
9 09-21-2018 9th race 5 Bankit (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 5/2# Dirt


I'm leaning toward Dutrow in the 1st race today with #2 Loose

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

There was only 1 winner from this group yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeatatbel.png



1 09-21-2018 1st race 2 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs A W Dutrow 2/1# Dirt
2 09-21-2018 2nd race 6 Keota (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 6/5# Turf
3 09-21-2018 3rd race 3 Golden Award (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs W I Mott 5/2# Dirt
4 09-21-2018 3rd race 7 Our Circle of Love (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 09-21-2018 5th race 2 Cilantro (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
6 09-21-2018 5th race 4 Land Mine (NY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles P M Serpe 7/5# Dirt
7 09-21-2018 8th race 4 Out of Orbit (NY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs P M Serpe 5/2# Dirt
8 09-21-2018 8th race 5 Makin Out (NY) Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs B N Levine 9/5# Dirt
9 09-21-2018 9th race 5 Bankit (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 5/2# Dirt


I'm leaning toward Dutrow in the 1st race today with #2 Loose

Let's see what happens!!!

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Belmont they are now 0 for their last 6!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelstrug.png

I thought #2 Loose was going to break the winless streak of 6 from yesterday but he was the 7th victim!!!

Once again an 0 for 6 winless streak from this group spills over into Saturday.

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Belmont they are now 0 for their last 6!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelstrug.png

I thought #2 Loose was going to break the winless streak of 6 from yesterday but he was the 7th victim!!!

Once again an 0 for 6 winless streak from this group spills over into Saturday.

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!

Since this post the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been as bad as the JETS!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsltthronebel.png

Only 30% have won their respective races!!!

Interesting to note, MLFs less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight Claiming races at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsclmrsltthrbel.png

Let's see if one of these can get the win to break the streak today!!!


1 10-05-2018 1st race 3 Ekhtibaar (KY) Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
2 10-05-2018 1st race 4 Souperfast (KY) Claiming One And One Eighth Miles P L Reynolds 9/5# Turf
3 10-05-2018 4th race 2 Aggregator (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R E Reid Jr. 5/2# Dirt


Things seem to change when streaks get close to 10!!!

Let's see if we get a win in the 1st today at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been as bad as the JETS!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsltthronebel.png

Only 30% have won their respective races!!!

Interesting to note, MLFs less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight Claiming races at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsclmrsltthrbel.png

Let's see if one of these can get the win to break the streak today!!!


1 10-05-2018 1st race 3 Ekhtibaar (KY) Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
2 10-05-2018 1st race 4 Souperfast (KY) Claiming One And One Eighth Miles P L Reynolds 9/5# Turf
3 10-05-2018 4th race 2 Aggregator (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R E Reid Jr. 5/2# Dirt


Things seem to change when streaks get close to 10!!!

Let's see if we get a win in the 1st today at Belmont!!!

We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday as #4 Souperfast came through in the Claiming race paying $13.90 across the board!!!

We also had both halves of the Exacta which came back at $26 not too shabby for 2 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1!!!

We also sniffed out the winner in the 4th race #2 Aggregator which paid $15 across the board again pretty decent payout for a Morning Line Favorite less than 3-1 in a Claiming race!!!

The theory of 10 worked yesterday I wish it would work all the time!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit off of the wins and hopefully the Exactas!!!

[TheOracle]

#3 Wicked Trick finished 3rd today at Belmont.

I really thought the MLFs less than 3-1 would have had a much better day today but only 3 winners came from this group and all 3 were MLFs ending with 5

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelsxth.png

So 5ers beat other MLFs by a 3 to 0 margin today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelchrtsepsxtn.png

I was thinking it would be a big day for the MLFs less than 3-1 but there were only 3 winners from this group today

Since this post the MLFs less than 3-1 in September started the month with a spike and ended the month with a spike

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsindxsep.png

MLFs less than 3-1 in Maiden races on the Turf gave one of the most profitable returns for chalk players as they won 8 out of their last 16 attempts for the month of September

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfstrfbelltthr.png

MLFs less than 3-1 in Maiden races on the Turf gave a return of 34% per $2 win wager!!!

Out of the 8 wins, MLFs ending with 5 won 5 of their last 7 attempts!!!

[TheOracle]

I will need to work on an algorithm to monitor when MLFs less than 3-1 are struggling

[TheOracle]

I will need to work on an algorithm to monitor when MLFs less than 3-1 are struggling

Still working on the algorithm but for now we are manual and in looking at the results from yesterday MLFs less than 3-1 went 1 for 12 yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelytdy.png

Almost grabbed the collar for the entire day. MLFs less than 3-1 have gone 0 for their last 8!!!

My theory of 10 will be put to the test today, the closer a streak gets to 10 the more likely it will be snapped

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbeltdy.png

Let's pay attention to races 1, 2 and 3

1st race
#4 Crack Shot

2nd race
#5 Highway Star

3rd race
#11 Offering Plan

I am thinking one of these should win and I'm leaning toward #4 Crack Shot

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

Still working on the algorithm but for now we are manual and in looking at the results from yesterday MLFs less than 3-1 went 1 for 12 yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelytdy.png

Almost grabbed the collar for the entire day. MLFs less than 3-1 have gone 0 for their last 8!!!

My theory of 10 will be put to the test today, the closer a streak gets to 10 the more likely it will be snapped

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbeltdy.png

Let's pay attention to races 1, 2 and 3

1st race
#4 Crack Shot

2nd race
#5 Highway Star

3rd race
#11 Offering Plan

I am thinking one of these should win and I'm leaning toward #4 Crack Shot

Let's see what happens!!!

We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday from Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as #5 Highway Star and #11 Ofering Plan both won paying $13.20 and $10.10 respectively!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

[castaway01]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[TheOracle]

We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday from Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as #5 Highway Star and #11 Ofering Plan both won paying $13.20 and $10.10 respectively!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

I didn’t realize that MLFs less than 3-1 won 4 out of their 7 races yesterday



1 10-20-2018 2nd race 5 Highway Star (NY) Stakes Dirt Fast Six And One Half Furlongs R A Ubillo 5/2# W 6.8 3.7 2.7
2 10-20-2018 3rd race 11 Offering Plan (NY) Stakes Turf Good One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 8/5# W 4.7 3.1 2.3
3 10-20-2018 5th race 6 La Moneda (NY) Stakes Turf Good One And One Sixteenth Miles T Morley 8/5# P 3.4 2.8
4 10-20-2018 5th race 7 Fifty Five (NY) Stakes Turf Good One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 7/5# W 3.6 2.3 2.1
5 10-20-2018 6th race 14 Beachside (NY) Maiden Special Weight Dirt Fast Six Furlongs L Rice 2/1# P 3.1 2.3
6 10-20-2018 8th race 6 Dugout (NY) Stakes Dirt Fast One Mile L Rivelli 5/2#
7 10-20-2018 10th race 10 Pat On the Back (NY) Stakes Dirt Fast One And One Eighth Miles J C Englehart 5/2# W 6.5 3.5 2.6

ML Odds Strts 1st 2nds 3rds Win % Win $ Cost Return % Return
lt 3-1 7 4 2 0 57.1% $21.6 $14 $7.6 54%
WPS % WPS $ Cost Return % Rtrn Shw $
85.7% $55.5 $42 $13.5 32% 14.8

[TheOracle]

Will post today’s results in another post

[TheOracle]

MLFs less than 3-1 went 2 for 7 today with 4 place finishes

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbeltdysun.png

I'm not sure what the Exacta payouts were for those races but backwheeling the MLFs less than 3-1 may have been very profitable today!!!