G1 Woodward Stakes 9/1/18

[Lemon Drop Husker]

While it may not be the most impressive Woodward, it is full of 14 legitimate contenders. This is one tough hombre.



:1: Yoshida: Has never ran on dirt, but he has beat some of the very best turf horses in the states. Still only a 4YO, and we all saw Catholic Boy do the same thing and romp at this very track. A must consideration.

:2: Imperative: Looked like a one time serious contender in the elder ranks. Now, as an 8YO, he is tough take as a serious contender. He could clunk up for a Super. Hard to see anything better than that.

:3: Patch: "We're gonna take the old one eye to the optometrist". Reality for this entry is that as a 4YO he simply hasn't gotten better, and maybe has even regressed. Even if he runs a career best, he still isn't good enough.

:4: Tapwrit: Another 4YO that hasn't progressed much. His Suburban wasn't awful, but he still got beat by nearly 10 lengths. I gave him a shot last out, and thus have to take a hard pass this time.

:5: Hence: Has never beat anybody of note. Ever. Complete toss.

:6: Term Of Art: Improving 4YO has basically ran everywhere in the states. His last two with Cox training are pretty damn good. This is an improving horse at what could be a monster price.

:7: Kurilov: 14 for 18 in the money with 7 wins. This guy likes to win. Still not sure he is good enough here to beat these.

:8: Discreet Lover: Only one win this year and is 0 for 4 at 'Toga. Runs a lot of good races, that just aren't ever enough. Exotics bound.

:9: Gunnevera: OK, let me preface that Gunny was my Derby horse last year. He is undoubtedly as good as any in this field and is fresh. Not sure he should be the favorite, but he may well be. He is a must include on any ticket for me.

:10: Seeking the Soul: He and Gunny should battle for favoritism. This is a dangerous horse that can run a monster. His last 4 races are as good as any in the field. Rolls in off a bullet work, and has to get deserved respect.

:11: Leofric: 11(6-1-2). Tactical horse that can run any way you want. If you are looking for a shot, look no further. This horse can run.

:12: Sunny Ridge: A 5YO that is getting better. Hasn't beaten much yet, but I wouldn't put it past him to be in the mix late in this one. Not without a chance and gets Irad on board.

:13: Zanotti: 0 for '18 with 5 seconds against lessers. This guy doesn't like or want to win. Solid exotics play for Tris and Supers.

:14: Rally Cry: Last year's runner up returns, and certainly isn't in any kind of form like last year. 2nd race of the year. Should be fresh, and Pletcher is always dangerous. Smith/Pletcher, and you could get 25/1.

[biggestal99]

:9: Gunnevera: OK, let me preface that Gunny was my Derby horse last year. He is undoubtedly as good as any in this field and is fresh. Not sure he should be the favorite, but he may well be. He is a must include on any ticket for me.



Hold it right here. Trainer sano did the exact same last year. Easy prep at GP, then turn the screws and ship to the spa in late August. Outran his odds in travers last year. Goes one better today. Key, key, key horse.

Allan

[jay68802]

Not a single standout in the race, so lets play The Price Is Right.

Three choices, all are 20-1 and all can get the job done.

:14: Rally Cry

:13: Zanotti

:11: Leofric

[Immortal6]

Tough race to handicap... my three win contenders

:10: Seeking The Soul good form off the layoff and good works. Of the "closers" in the race looks to be the most able to sit closer to the pace should it fall apart up front.
:11: Leofric Brad Cox trained, looks to be a horse that runs well near the pace whether it be slightly fast or slow and usually finishes well. Speed from Candy Ride and his dam side says the added distance won't be an issue. My pick to win.
:14: Rally Cry that last race...yeesh. But the price will be right. Expecting Pletcher to have this one ready to run at a big price. This horse beat Diversify last April, maybe he can run back to that race again.

Second tier
:1: Yoshida have to respect this horse enough for 2nd place contention. Will he take to the dirt and be able to carve out a good trip in a 14 horse field?
:9: Gunnevera another horse you have to respect. Will close well in a race I don't believe will set up for a deep closer.

3rd tier
:6: Term of Art the other Cox horse. Class test here, should be forwardly placed and looks to have the ability to fight and hold on for a piece in the stretch.
:8: Discreet Lover is a horse that seems like he will run a competitive race but will be shuffled a little too far back to make an impact on the winner.

Tri :10::11::14:/w:1::9:/w:6::8: $30
Ex :10::11::14:/w:1::9: $12
$4 win on :11: and :14: $8

[Secondbest]

I'm going with Yoshida. Lost to some of best Turf horses in the world by only a length and a quarter at Ascot. No world beaters here.Mott thinks he can run on dirt. At 5-1 he's worth a bet.

[098poi]

I like the :4:, :9:, :12: so how about $5 Ex box! It's only funny money but now I have someone to root for!

[deathandgravity]

$0.50 TRI = $30
1, 10, 13
1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 13
1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 13

[Robert Fischer]

WIN CONTENDERS:
:1: Yoshida - Golden opportunity today to play the rail into the first turn. You have to hope that Rosario understands the golden opportunity. Then you have to hope that the break is clean, and that the horse can run to form. If all that goes well, you still don't get a good price, but at least you have the winner.

:7: Kurilov - Weak field falls into his lap. Figures to get a fair trip, but can't be lazily handled into the first turn, otherwise could be getting pushed around.

:10: Seeking the Soul - Probably the 'best' horse in the race, but if he's a 'key' in your Trifecta, you would need to use in all three spots.

:12: Sunny Ridge - Like the :1:, if all goes well he'll be sitting pretty. But a lot has to go well and the value stinks.



VALUE ADDS:

:3: Patch. - Race sets up for Patch. He can run 3rd or 4th and help a tri or super. He's this race's 'Discreet Lover'.

:4: Tapwrit - Make sure you are actually getting 5,6-1 or more. He's a danger to lose value to popularity. He can run 3rd or 4th or even 2nd with a dream trip. Current form is relatively good (compared to Tapwrit's form cycle), and he draws well in a mediocre field).

:6: Term of Art - It's a 'reach', but he could get a good trip in here with the lack of early pace and the short-run to the 1st-turn.

[Tom]

Looking to classify this race, I have a system I used, drived from an article HalvOnHorseracing wrote
about playing turf races.

I rank each horse by the highest class level it has run and look for 30% of the race to meet the level
of the race. So for 14 horses, I need 4 horse to rank as "1".

To rate the horse, I look at past wins as follows:

Gr1 =1
Gr2 = 2
Gr3 = 3
Open Stake = 4
Restricted/State Bred Stake = 5

Beyer Pars - Gr1 9 furlongs dirt = 108 Turf = 104 Looking for a fig within 5 points.

01. Yoshida. Best race is a Gr1 TURF win, earned a 106, better than par.
02. Imperative. Best is Gr2 in the slop at CT, earned a 96, very poor Gr1 figure and a "weird" track.
03. Patch. Won a NW1 allowance slow steak time.
04. Tawrit. Won a Gr1 (Belmont) last year in 103. Age adjusted, probably close to today's par.
05. Hence. Won a Gr3 last year, 92 fig. Slow. Recent figs are better, but still slow.
06. Term of Art. Beaten a neck in the Gr3 at Mnr in 95 time. Slow
07. Beaten a neck in a Gr1 on turf in Florida - 102 fig puts it in range for today.
08. Discreet Lover. Won Gr3 in 98 time - slow.
09. Gunnevera. Won a Gr2 for 3yos last year, and ran a 104 and 109 Gr1 stakes last year.
10. Seeking the Soul. Won the Gr1 Clark in 103.
11. Won a Gr3, slow 96.
12. Sunny Ridge. No stakes win showing, but a 102 last out in a Gr4 win.
13. Zanotti. Within 1/2 length in a Gr3 in good time, 102.
14. Rally Cry. Second to Gun Runner in this race last year, only 2 starts since. Has run a 102 and a 110.

This is a Gr3 race. Close to Gr1, but not enough horses and some on turf.

Horses who have run well in Gr2 or Gr1 races and run within par are contenders. You have to take post position into account here, too.

1,4, 7,9,10, 12, 13, and 14 are contenders.

:4: 4-1
:9: 3-1
:1: 7-1
:10: 8-1

[Maximillion]

I think Tapwrit should be able to assert himself in this spot.No idea what the price will be but he seems likely to draw some support...may just go with with a win bet if the odds are near the ML.

[Buckeye]

I'll take the 11 at 20-1

and if you don't like that, take the 12 at 8-1

[Thomas Roulston]

Were any horses excluded due to the 14-horse limit?

One of the big races at Hialeah in the early '80s had a 16-horse field one year (actually 17 were entered, but #17 was scratched).

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:9::11:/:9::10::11:/All

[MadVindication]

I like the :13: maybe has seconditis lately but should still go off at good value for place/show.

[Redboard]

W- :4:

EX- :9: , :10: / :4: , :11:

[Robert Fischer]

:1: Yoshida is a decent horse, and with the proper ride he should have a dream trip here.

The six horses who I can fathom winning are :1:YOSHIDA, :4:TAPWRIT, :7:KURILOV, :9:GUNNEVERA, :12:SONNY RIDGE.

:2::3::4::5::6::7: Are prices who draw relatively good post position. I'm going to try to have one of them hit the board 2nd/3rd/or4th in my Superfecta.

:coffee: So... I want to hammer home this opinion (both on the contenders and the track configuration) with the following 10 tickets.
Let's get this multiple times or one time really big;



$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Wager Total $30.80

$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Wager Total $30.80


$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Wager Total $30.80

$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
Wager Total $30.80


$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Wager Total $30.80

$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Wager Total $30.80


$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Wager Total $30.80

$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU1
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Wager Total $30.80

$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1
Wager Total $30.80


$0.10 SU1, 4, 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$0.10 SU1
Wager Total $30.80


TOTAL (10 ways) $308.00

[bobphilo]

Zanotti has a lot to overcome from his 13 post but earned big figure from wide in his last and he's an incredible 37-1. Worth a shot.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDktBZzQIiU

[Robert Fischer]

'sanity' Trifecta Box; $0.50 TBX1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Wager Total $168.00

[Form W-2G]

As a value player, I have DISCREET LOVER #8 fairly valued at 6 to 1. Therefore at 13/1 with 3 minutes to post I have to put him on top.

[MadVindication]

Win and place :13:

[MadVindication]

Zanotti has a lot to overcome from his 13 post but earned big figure from wide in his last and he's an incredible 37-1. Worth a shot.

Maybe gets better with age:ThmbUp:

[bobphilo]

Win and place :13:

Ditto

[PhantomOnTour]

This is a mess of a race

Silly exacta play:
11-12 w 6-9-11-12-13
Win: 11

[Robert Fischer]

what a dumb break by rosario on Yoshida.

didn't send

[Robert Fischer]

what a dumb break by rosario on Yoshida.

didn't send

well... that's an argument I'll never win popular opinion with now, but :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

what a dumb break by rosario on Yoshida.

didn't send


And won.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Thankfully i have a :1::9::11: Ex "saver".



SO much greatness could have been had. :pout:

[Robert Fischer]

Thankfully i have a :1::9::11: Ex "saver".



SO much greatness could have been had. :pout:

good call



My 'OCD' superfecta ticket was foiled by Rally Cry, and the fact that I tried to roll the dice in a complex race.
Thought the :1: could have had trip up the rail, but Rosario did in fact get a really good trip with the late outside flow and the pace horses that he did not send out to had to do work from the outside post. I was probably wrong then.

Also my opinion on YOSHIDA was wrong. I wasn't high on the horse when it came to dirt talent alone - His post position and possible forward advantage is what made me like him.

I have to REALLY credit those who picked the :11:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

good call


:1: was the 'scary' horse in the race. Especially after the Catholic Boy romp.

[Tom]

Hit a small ex box 1-4-9, but don't ever talk to me about Tapwrit again. This guy can't close the deal. :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

:1: was the 'scary' horse in the race. Especially after the Catholic Boy romp.

It's like deja vu, all over again...

[GMB@BP]

That was a crawlfest, felt like it was a very slow race. In fact both the dirt stakes felt like the track was sticky and tough to be near the lead.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

good call



My 'OCD' superfecta ticket was foiled by Rally Cry, and the fact that I tried to roll the dice in a complex race.
Thought the :1: could have had trip up the rail, but Rosario did in fact get a really good trip with the late outside flow and the pace horses that he did not send out to had to do work from the outside post. I was probably wrong then.

Also my opinion on YOSHIDA was wrong. I wasn't high on the horse when it came to dirt talent alone - His post position and possible forward advantage is what made me like him.

I have to REALLY credit those who picked the :11:


:11: was my 'key' horse in the entire race. He is a fighter. Showed it today.

[Brass Hat]

Not the Woodward but Brown had three horses in the last race not one of whom could press the leader on a 27 first fraction and glacial 54 half. The Albertrani horse walked on the front end leading to a carryover for anyone who negotiated the first five races of the pick-6. Mind boggling.

[bobphilo]

Sunny Ridge in the 12 hole outbroke Zanotti and took his path to the rail trip. Poor Z got stuck super-wide around both turns.
I'll tell you though, that moment when he made his move on the turn was worth the price of the small bet.

[bobphilo]

Just to show the effects of Post Position, trip and ground loss. Yoshida breaking from post 1 got a perfect rail trip while Gunnevera, who was 2nd by 1 3/4 lengths had post 9 and ran 54 more feet or 6 3/4 more lengths.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just to show the effects of Post Position, trip and ground loss. Yoshida breaking from post 1 got a perfect rail trip while Gunnevera, who was 2nd by 1 3/4 lengths had post 9 and ran 54 more feet or 6 3/4 more lengths.


Right with you Bob, and I love Gunny. HE just always seems to never get a good trip. In fact, almost always the worst.



Tough hard cranking colt that always runs his guts out.

[Afleet]

Woodward 1. Leofric 2. Seeking the Soul 3. Yoshida

my picks from publichandicapper; played all 3 in the pick 4 and lost other leg-typical

[Mulerider]

Right with you Bob, and I love Gunny. HE just always seems to never get a good trip. In fact, almost always the worst.



Tough hard cranking colt that always runs his guts out.

Agree 100%. I didn't bet the race, but I was pulling for him.

[Robert Fischer]

Based on the trip -
:9: Gunnevera and, :14: Rally Cry both very likely outperformed the winner :1: Yoshida.

Maybe Yoshida will be a good bet-against next time.

Usually I'd credit Rally Cry a lot more than Gunnevera because of being wide near an early pace.

This pace was a little tough to read. I'm leaning toward the idea that it was actually mildly forward-favoring. Kind of a weird race without much quality speed, and a lot of ground loss. Definitely a good late flow, but some of that may have just been that the closers are faster horses, and some of the decent forward/early horses lost ground.

Haven't seen prelim Beyers, but logical projection and watching the replay says that :11: Leofric ran another mid-90s Beyer today (93-97?). He had a smooth trip and was 2 lengths off the winner at the line. We may well see the fig come out higher and Leofric being given credit for an improved race or a 'new top' or whatever in order to justify assigning the figs they want for Yoshida and Gunnevera.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Took a bath on Discreet Lover! Thought he was sittin on a big one. Anxious to bet back though. Nice call Robert!

[Onion Monster]

I don't know what's worse these days: California graded turf stakes or New York graded dirt stakes? New York should just go full synthetic/turf like Woodbine.

[CheckMark]

I missed on Catholic boy last week and I wasn’t missing on Yoshida yesterday. Got my Exacta :1:/:9: and $5 win bet on :1:

[bobphilo]

Right with you Bob, and I love Gunny. HE just always seems to never get a good trip. In fact, almost always the worst.



Tough hard cranking colt that always runs his guts out.

Too bad they can't get horses to stay in lanes like human runners with staggered starts. To eliminate uneven ground loss some races in England as long as 10 furlongs are run on a straight but they lack the excitement of races around a turn. The horses are all spread out and it's hard to tell who's leading.
Guess we just have to trade some fairness for excitement.

[dilanesp]

cj tweeted that Yoshida ran a huge speed figure. I am not really convinced, given we know Gunnavera's level.

[Tom]

No, Low figure- 118.

[classhandicapper]

Sooner or later they are going to run a major stakes at Saratoga on an honest track, it just won't be this year.

[bobphilo]

Sooner or later they are going to run a major stakes at Saratoga on an honest track, it just won't be this year.

Don't know if the track had anything to do with it more than the troubled trips one sees in large fields.

[GMB@BP]

That race was sloooow, Yoshida may run in the BC Classic because its way more value as a stallion, but that perfect trip against a bad field hardly qualifies him for the classic at the short odds he will be.

[JustRalph]

That race was sloooow, Yoshida may run in the BC Classic because its way more value as a stallion, but that perfect trip against a bad field hardly qualifies him for the classic at the short odds he will be.

You have to admit he was a man among boys.......he did it easy

[Robert Fischer]

102 Beyer / David Grenning twitter.

Seems a touch high considering Leofric ran about a 95/96 and finished 2 lengths back of the winner.

I don't know the Beyer scale stuff, so maybe that does work out, but I'd be interested in feedback on either the scale or if anyone has the Beyer for Leofric's Woodward.

[Tom]

Something like 1.7 points per length, so 96 would be low.

[Robert Fischer]

Something like 1.7 points per length, so 96 would be low.

Thanks Tom,

so 1.7 x 2 = 3.4

102-3.4 = 98.6 degrees


It's close enough to Leofric's ballpark projection. Maybe a couple points high, but I can't argue over small stuff. Seems reasonable :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Don't know if the track had anything to do with it more than the troubled trips one sees in large fields.

I agree that large fields tend to have faster paces, more trouble, and more horses that wind up out of position, but I'd have to say from watching the races Saturday, being very far back was less of a disadvantage than it is on the typical race day on most tracks.