Plonk: Bob Baffert Babies are Delirious at Del Mar. (Do you believe it's real?)

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1034231562781380608

[GMB@BP]

All 8 horses looked like runners to me, last year he did not have near the barn of two year olds headed into the meet, everyone knew that, and he didnt have a good two year old meet. So is this incredible new wonder method didnt exist last season?

I just happen to think he, and Hollendorfer, have been very strong and the others not as much. Last year Mullins, Ruis and Mandella had some nice horses in the barn at this time.

[chadk66]

He is the current D. Wayne Lukas of the 80's. Gets easily the best horses on the planet. But he's good too and that's why he continues to get em.

[Spalding No!]

All 8 horses looked like runners to me, last year he did not have near the barn of two year olds headed into the meet, everyone knew that, and he didnt have a good two year old meet. So is this incredible new wonder method didnt exist last season?

In MSW company, he was 17-6-3-1 at the 2017 DM meet. He blanked in the graded stakes (Sorrento/Debutante, Best Pal/Futurity), but got Grade 1-placings out of Zatter and Alluring Star, both of whom dropped off the face of the earth.

In that regard, the lack of durability is perhaps the reason why one would say--despite hitting at over 33%--that Baffert didn't have a "good" two year old meet last year.

He had several touted runners. In addition to the two already mentioned: St. Patrick's Day, Solomini, Nero, Serengeti, Soul Streit, Diamondsandpearls and Just A Smidge all faded away or didn't pan out.

There is no guarantee any of the 8 from this year will be any different.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I still wonder what are the magic potion combinations that seem to be working and flying-under-the-radar for these super trainers with dozens or hundreds of horses. It just seems, well, almost impossible to have the majority of your stable to be that good and have runners win by daylight on tracks that play like quicksand.

[GMB@BP]

In MSW company, he was 17-6-3-1 at the 2017 DM meet. He blanked in the graded stakes (Sorrento/Debutante, Best Pal/Futurity), but got Grade 1-placings out of Zatter and Alluring Star, both of whom dropped off the face of the earth.

In that regard, the lack of durability is perhaps the reason why one would say--despite hitting at over 33%--that Baffert didn't have a "good" two year old meet last year.

He had several touted runners. In addition to the two already mentioned: St. Patrick's Day, Solomini, Nero, Serengeti, Soul Streit, Diamondsandpearls and Just A Smidge all faded away or didn't pan out.

There is no guarantee any of the 8 from this year will be any different.

Thats all true, I can only tell you what I head before the meets, this year I had heard he was loaded, didnt hear the same thing last year.

Maybe he over performed with some of those horses because he is always aggressive at Del Mar.

Another thing that is much different in his barn, if you cant run your not staying around with that outfit, most barns that is not the case so seeing gaudy win percentages just doesnt strike me as odd.

[GMB@BP]

I still wonder what are the magic potion combinations that seem to be working and flying-under-the-radar for these super trainers with dozens or hundreds of horses. It just seems, well, almost impossible to have the majority of your stable to be that good and have runners win by daylight on tracks that play like quicksand.

There could be some credence to out of race methods that are putting some guys ahead of the game.

I feel like everyone is doing something.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

There could be some credence to out of race methods that are putting some guys ahead of the game.

I feel like everyone is doing something.

I definitely agree with this. It's only a matter of time.

Mullins was caught syringing herbal cough syrup into a horse's mouth in New York, O'Neill with the milkshaking, and Baffert with giving thyroxine. Then you have the mysterious case of Miller, who seems to bat a high win average, that had a horse suddenly drop dead - and the CHRB confirms it was not cardiac-related. I am really eager to know what they do find outside of the glyphosate contamination because that could open a big can of worms.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I still wonder what are the magic potion combinations that seem to be working and flying-under-the-radar for these super trainers with dozens or hundreds of horses. It just seems, well, almost impossible to have the majority of your stable to be that good and have runners win by daylight on tracks that play like quicksand.

It could be Not-in-competition performance drugs administered prior to racing...maybe trainers are realizing that future races are “won” in training weeks prior to their actual running...I think the CHRB is trying to address out-of-competition drug issues as we speak...if the rules don’t address it, they aren’t doing anything wrong, I guess...

See the part on medication about half-way through this doc...good stuff they talk about here...http://www.chrb.ca.gov/Board/board_meeting_transcripts/transcript_18-06-21.pdf starts at the bottom of page 58...

[clicknow]

When you are sent the very best breedings, it makes your job easier.

2nd, Thyro-L didn't work like it was supposed to and w/out consequences, and I'm sure the chemists are always finding something undetectable and new to peddle.

B could not be doing anything "different" than every other racehorse trainer. All these trainers have been able to observe each other for 30 years or so.
He works 'em fast, but that isn't it.

[Andy Asaro]

He buys horses from the same place everyone else does right?

Then what happens? Do they go to some kind of area 51 for horses?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1034426559510142976

[dilanesp]

In MSW company, he was 17-6-3-1 at the 2017 DM meet. He blanked in the graded stakes (Sorrento/Debutante, Best Pal/Futurity), but got Grade 1-placings out of Zatter and Alluring Star, both of whom dropped off the face of the earth.

In that regard, the lack of durability is perhaps the reason why one would say--despite hitting at over 33%--that Baffert didn't have a "good" two year old meet last year.

He had several touted runners. In addition to the two already mentioned: St. Patrick's Day, Solomini, Nero, Serengeti, Soul Streit, Diamondsandpearls and Just A Smidge all faded away or didn't pan out.

There is no guarantee any of the 8 from this year will be any different.

And the best one was still back at the barn....

[Spalding No!]

And the best one was still back at the barn....
Yep, later at the brief SA fall meet, he went 4 for 5 in MSWs on the main track unveiling:

Dream Tree
Mourinho
McKinzie
High Drama

All went by the wayside by early spring, though a couple are close to comeback starts.

[GMB@BP]

Yep, later at the brief SA fall meet, he went 4 for 5 in MSWs on the main track unveiling:

Dream Tree
Mourinho
McKinzie
High Drama

All went by the wayside by early spring, though a couple are close to comeback starts.

Dream Tree runs sunday in the prioress.

[GMB@BP]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1034426559510142976

dumb

[jay68802]

It could be Not-in-competition performance drugs administered prior to racing...maybe trainers are realizing that future races are “won” in training weeks prior to their actual running...I think the CHRB is trying to address out-of-competition drug issues as we speak...if the rules don’t address it, they aren’t doing anything wrong, I guess...

See the part on medication about half-way through this doc...good stuff they talk about here...http://www.chrb.ca.gov/Board/board_meeting_transcripts/transcript_18-06-21.pdf starts at the bottom of page 58...

The sticking point on out of competition testing was that the owner and trainer were going to be held responsible if a horse failed a out of competition test. The CHRB caved, and will allow the owner or trainer to designate who is responsible for the horse when it is not in competition. This means that the owner and trainer can now say that "Joe", the farm manager, or "Jose" the groom, are responsible for the horse if it fails a test. Allowing them to point a finger somewhere else and avoid any fines or suspensions.

In the end the CHRB can thump its chest and say "Look how tough we are being by passing this rule." And the owners and trainers can go about their "business as usual" and not worry about any punishment.

[highnote]

The sticking point on out of competition testing was that the owner and trainer were going to be held responsible if a horse failed a out of competition test. The CHRB caved, and will allow the owner or trainer to designate who is responsible for the horse when it is not in competition. This means that the owner and trainer can now say that "Joe", the farm manager, or "Jose" the groom, are responsible for the horse if it fails a test. Allowing them to point a finger somewhere else and avoid any fines or suspensions.

In the end the CHRB can thump its chest and say "Look how tough we are being by passing this rule." And the owners and trainers can go about their "business as usual" and not worry about any punishment.

All the more reason to NOT be U.S. racing and switch to betting Hong Kong racing. HK has much stricter drug policies.

[jay68802]

What it comes down to is that the owners and trainers are what drive this sport. There is no doubt about that. Their importance to the sport should be greatly considered, in almost all areas of the sport.

The problem is that there are some areas where their interest should be put aside and the racing commissions should step up and put "integrity of the sport" first. This is one of those times. Giving them a loophole like this shows the lack of respect they have for the people who wager on horse racing, and thus give them the $$$'s to keep the sport alive.

Rules like this are promoted as a way to keep the "cheaters" out of the sport. Every owner and trainer should embrace this, because it is protecting the honest ones. Instead, as a group, they want the loopholes put in place, so the game stays the same, and the "status quo" is protected.

[highnote]

What it comes down to is that the owners and trainers are what drive this sport. There is no doubt about that. Their importance to the sport should be greatly considered, in almost all areas of the sport.

The problem is that there are some areas where their interest should be put aside and the racing commissions should step up and put "integrity of the sport" first. This is one of those times. Giving them a loophole like this shows the lack of respect they have for the people who wager on horse racing, and thus give them the $$$'s to keep the sport alive.

Rules like this are promoted as a way to keep the "cheaters" out of the sport. Every owner and trainer should embrace this, because it is protecting the honest ones. Instead, as a group, they want the loopholes put in place, so the game stays the same, and the "status quo" is protected.

How much can trainers and owners can drive the sport if no one wagers on the sport?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1034599045019271169

[Tom]

He looks to have few horses than some of the super trainers. Maybe he just spend more time hand on with his horses. He seems to know how to get a horse fit and fast. Other trainers should be taking notes.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I’ve often thought that Bob’s success is largely the result of EXTREME FOCUS...

it appears his team has gone through the training and race cycles of the thoroughbred in minute detail...extracted crucial components of these cycles and then superimposed a training regime and methodology that focuses on the top prizes/ top races in racing.

Like any good architect, he works “with the end in mind”...those principle ends being top Derby Trail events...and if allowed, a 4-year-old season with a top performer or two...he has identified all the elements that go into this narrowly defined arena of action...including obtaining the best young horses that he can find...or that owners bring to him....

He rarely races claimers as far as I know, and underperforming horses don’t seem to stay in his barn too long unless he has some real faith in them long term...

He’s dialed in tightly on what works and what doesn’t and i’ve heard him say something to the effect of a stated goal: To make steady progress year after year to keep gaining better and better results...

Over time...over many years, this extreme focus and consistent gradual improvement in total methodology, and hard work has paid off...

My shop teacher once told me that if I “put all of my energy and talent in one-place and in one time, I would become successful”...Bob seems to have done just that...

Anyway, that’s my take on it...

[TrackingTVG]

You are delusional if you think he isn’t cheating

[Andy Asaro]

You guys are forgetting the 7 sudden deaths in 18 months.


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/questions-still-unanswered-in-baffert-sudden-deaths/

[Fager Fan]

I’ve often thought that Bob’s success is largely the result of EXTREME FOCUS...

it appears his team has gone through the training and race cycles of the thoroughbred in minute detail...extracted crucial components of these cycles and then superimposed a training regime and methodology that focuses on the top prizes/ top races in racing.

Like any good architect, he works “with the end in mind”...those principle ends being top Derby Trail events...and if allowed, a 4-year-old season with a top performer or two...he has identified all the elements that go into this narrowly defined arena of action...including obtaining the best young horses that he can find...or that owners bring to him....

He rarely races claimers as far as I know, and underperforming horses don’t seem to stay in his barn too long unless he has some real faith in them long term...

He’s dialed in tightly on what works and what doesn’t and i’ve heard him say something to the effect of a stated goal: To make steady progress year after year to keep gaining better and better results...

Over time...over many years, this extreme focus and consistent gradual improvement in total methodology, and hard work has paid off...

My shop teacher once told me that if I “put all of my energy and talent in one-place and in one time, I would become successful”...Bob seems to have done just that...

Anyway, that’s my take on it...

Give us exactly what he could be doing that other good trainers don’t that could make the difference. Do you really think his horses work or gallop or are fed great feed and water that much better than other good trainers?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Give us exactly what he could be doing that other good trainers don’t that could make the difference. Do you really think his horses work or gallop or are fed great feed and water that much better than other good trainers?
Other than what I wrote above, then I don’t know really all the details that go into the mystery of just how he has done it...

I do know that he is very intelligent and smart about how he goes about conducting his business, and the fact that success tends to breed more success plays into this greatly...he is now so very well capitalized and has a bevy of well-heeled and passionate owners behind him...he can afford to be more selective about which horses come into his barn...I would speculate that he has access to a larger network of talent scouts and confirmation experts manning the sales sites than other trainers...

IMO, Bob has identified the race running style that is the most successful, that Early types, or Early/ Pace types and most likely gravitates toward runners who he thinks would fit these two profiles...his training process builds upon speed and stamina...

He does also seem to employ similar race tactics during the running of important races and he repeatively employs one of the best riders who clearly understands how Bob’s horses are trained and repeatively positions and maneuvers them to give the horses their best shots for victory...clearly there is a pattern to all of this, and it is a very narrow set of parameters that are in play through the entire process that he, apparently, focuses intensely upon...

He has identified those few things in racing that REALLY MATTER...and focuses upon incorporating “those really important things” into his over-all racing regime, consistently...

[AskinHaskin]

Give us exactly what he could be doing that other good trainers don’t that could make the difference.

One need do no more than review the entire work-tab for each of his individuals which has yet to pass January 1 of its 4yo season (aka 4th birthday ) to witness a glaring difference.

The rest is most assuredly a function of the resources to have so many on the treadmill at the same time that those which fall off are barely noticed.

Baffert's goals have been the same for decades, and everyone can figure out just what they are.

There aren't any secrets. It's all right there in front of your eyes should you choose to avail yourself of the data.

[papillon]

:headbanger:https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1034426559510142976

There was a similar article at Paulick this week, and an article from a week or two ago there, still featured, where the HOF spokesperson says he doesn't believe his fellow members will induct him because "6 races doesn't make a career." The fact that so many artilces are popping up, itself indicates his grasp on the championship is slippery.

Seems to me that being a top flight horse on both turf and dirt has to be far rarer than TC's. Even undefeated Derby winners are rarer and only about 3 exited with 8 or more, one being Nyquist. The BCJ/Derby double is proving to one of the hardest things in this sport, period.

June was a life time ago in this sport, by Nov it will have been 2 lifetimes ago. If CB wins the Hill Prince and the BCC in good times, with as fast or faster beyers, he absolutely deserves Champ 3yo. How far do we go back to find a true dual surface horse? John Henry? Plus, I don't think you can compare the pre-BC world to the post BC world.

[GMB@BP]

Justify will be 3YO champ and horse of the year.

of course they want to write otherwise, what else can you do if that is your profession, its hard to say in summer that something is decided, so might as well hypothesize differently....in the end he will win both in a landslide.

[AskinHaskin]

You are delusional if you think he isn’t cheating



LOL - So Baffert wins with all of his 2yo firsters, costing $450K, $525K, $900K, $250K, $110K, and $925K... he loses with his only other firster, and he's 2-for-25 (8%) in all other categories at the meet... and you think he's cheating???


How bad at cheating would somebody have to be in order to win with just 8% of the rest of his runners??


A Baffert 2yo debut win at Dmr is a mixed blessing where it concerns future success, so he needs to have plenty of possibilities out there to know later successes with the fortunate few.

And better yet, just how to you sense it is decided beneath the Baffert shed, which owners will be the lucky recipients of all of the cheating you have unearthed?

[JohnGalt1]

Give us exactly what he could be doing that other good trainers don’t that could make the difference. Do you really think his horses work or gallop or are fed great feed and water that much better than other good trainers?

Look at the 5 and 6 furlong mostly bullet works Baffert's horses get and compare them to Brown's and Pletcher's 4 furlong works.


All three get quality stock.

When their 2 and 3 year old horses race each other, who has the better success?


Whose horses are more racing fit?

[Robert Fischer]

Baffert is a class act. He drives a ton of revenue in this business. He has owners spending a lot at the sales. His Triple Crown wins and near misses have generated a lot of media and handle.

[dilanesp]

Look at the 5 and 6 furlong mostly bullet works Baffert's horses get and compare them to Brown's and Pletcher's 4 furlong works.


All three get quality stock.

When their 2 and 3 year old horses race each other, who has the better success?


Whose horses are more racing fit?

I love the Baffert worktab. It isn't the only method to train horses, but it gives me a ton of confidence as a handicapper when I look down and see those 46's and 59's and 1:12's.

[GMB@BP]

I love the Baffert worktab. It isn't the only method to train horses, but it gives me a ton of confidence as a handicapper when I look down and see those 46's and 59's and 1:12's.

Its a method that can work, but not for every stable. He works his horses hard, because its simple, you either survive and perform or you move on to another barn or circuit. A smaller barn might not be able to do this or want to.

[AskinHaskin]

I love the Baffert worktab. It isn't the only method to train horses, but it gives me a ton of confidence as a handicapper when I look down and see those 46's and 59's and 1:12's.


But that's not even the significant part.

[TrackingTVG]

LOL - So Baffert wins with all of his 2yo firsters, costing $450K, $525K, $900K, $250K, $110K, and $925K... he loses with his only other firster, and he's 2-for-25 (8%) in all other categories at the meet... and you think he's cheating???


How bad at cheating would somebody have to be in order to win with just 8% of the rest of his runners??


A Baffert 2yo debut win at Dmr is a mixed blessing where it concerns future success, so he needs to have plenty of possibilities out there to know later successes with the fortunate few.

And better yet, just how to you sense it is decided beneath the Baffert shed, which owners will be the lucky recipients of all of the cheating you have unearthed?


https://tuesdayshorse.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/deadly-to-horses-the-baffert-effect-part-1/

"“Looked at another way, one trainer with 2.5% of the horses and 1.5% of the total starts has had 19.4% of the sudden deaths over a 21-month period.”


" It was revealed that Bob Baffert, trainer of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, gave all of his horses thyroxine after seven horses suddenly died in his stables"

"From the DRF: Baffert, Sierra fined

Trainers Bob Baffert and Javier Sierra were fined by Santa Anita stewards Sunday for medication violations found in their runners during the summer.

Baffert was fined $1,000 after Diamondsandpearls tested in excess of the anti-inflammatory bute when she won a maiden race for 2-year-old fillies July 2 at Santa Anita.

Sierra was fined $750 after Gutsy Ruler tested positive for the banned medication flumethasone, a corticosteroid. Gutsy Ruler’s positive was found from a post-race test after the 6-year-old gelding won an optional claimer at five furlongs on turf Aug. 6 at Del Mar."


"Practicing veterinarian Vince
Baker testified and court reporter Michelle Derieg recorded the hearing. Mr. Baffert’s
5
horse “Diamondsandpearls” who raced at Santa Anita Park on July 2, 2017 had in its
post-race sample a level of 3.19 ug/ml of Phenylbutazone, which was an overage for this
drug. Both Dr. Baker and Mr. Baffert stated their only explanation for the overage was
that the horse’s small size metabolized the drug at a slower rate than a larger horse
would have. The Veterinarian’s confidential showed that the drug was administered 27
hours prior to the race."

"Baffert averages one drug violation every 545 starts"

[GMB@BP]

"Baffert averages one drug violation every 545 starts"

with the amount of starts thats about 1 every two year +/-, that seems tolerable reason given the games these guys play each race day.

[AskinHaskin]

" It was revealed that Bob Baffert, trainer of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, gave all of his horses thyroxine after seven horses suddenly died in his stables"





So where, again, was the "cheating" ???


Your quoted statement above doesn't even make sense.


Why exactly would Baffert "give all of his horses Thyroxine" "after seven horses suddenly died"?

"Thyroxine has been popular among trainers since the 1970's" so states The Paulick Report.


And good to know that you found a single Bute overage to talk about.



But your accusation is "cheating".

So where is it???


Return here and break the news once you come up with something.

[Tom]

Baffert is not known for "GOTCHA!" horses jumping up and dominating out of nowhere. He generally shows up loaded to do that and it is not a surprise when it happens.

[Andy Asaro]

By Jeremy Plonk

https://www.xpressbet.com/component/content/article/11-xb360/xb-blog/3619-mythbuster-baffert-tops-even-himself#__prclt=ti4WZMaG

Excerpts:

Of his 8 defeats, 3 came in races in which another stablemate had his or her picture taken in the winner’s circle.

In sheer win percentages, that makes Baffert 17-for-22 with rookie juvenile races – a whopping 77% success rate.

That’s either remarkable or unhealthy for the game


From 2013-’17, Baffert hit 23% with experienced 2YOs and 26% with his first-time 2YOs. He’s doubled the first percentage this year and almost tripled the second

[Track Phantom]

Ruining the game

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1064674563357720577

[GMB@BP]

By Jeremy Plonk

https://www.xpressbet.com/component/content/article/11-xb360/xb-blog/3619-mythbuster-baffert-tops-even-himself#__prclt=ti4WZMaG

Excerpts:

Of his 8 defeats, 3 came in races in which another stablemate had his or her picture taken in the winner’s circle.

In sheer win percentages, that makes Baffert 17-for-22 with rookie juvenile races – a whopping 77% success rate.

That’s either remarkable or unhealthy for the game


From 2013-’17, Baffert hit 23% with experienced 2YOs and 26% with his first-time 2YOs. He’s doubled the first percentage this year and almost tripled the second

I agree its not healthy for the game.

Some of the stats in my opinion can also be attributed to the fact that some of the top two year old stables no longer seem to have the same stock as they used to, so Baffert has a high percentage of the good stock on the west coast.

Only Hollendorfer gets anything close to the same stock, and its still not that close.

There used to be 5 other outfits or so that at least got some well bred horses, they really dont anymore.

[Igotabeef]

Why don’t I see as many complaints about Pletcher when he goes on these runs with his ridiculous stable of all blue bloods? He then enters a quarter of the gate in the Derby routinely with horses who usually run up the track. That is good for racing? I have been around this forum for over a decade.

I don’t have much to say obviously, but many of the people here decided without any proven facts that you can call Baffert a cheat while not applying the same standards to people like Pletcher, Assmusen, or even D’Amato. All have results most trainers can’t seem to replicate. Don’t see them with a long line of positives. I can’t say they aren’t cheating, but you can’t say they are. Should there be better testing? Sure. Would I invest that money in a dying sport? No. It may be something we here love, but the world will spin without horse racing, and more overhead surely isn’t going to help keep it alive, and I’m sure we don’t want them raising the take to figure out a way to get these answers.

Eventually Bob will have a downturn. He has had them before. Those who question him will say the heat is catching up. I’d say more likely he picked some bad horses. The thing is, chances are we will never know who was right.

[Track Phantom]

Why don’t I see as many complaints about Pletcher when he goes on these runs with his ridiculous stable of all blue bloods? He then enters a quarter of the gate in the Derby routinely with horses who usually run up the track. That is good for racing? I have been around this forum for over a decade.

I don’t have much to say obviously, but many of the people here decided without any proven facts that you can call Baffert a cheat while not applying the same standards to people like Pletcher, Assmusen, or even D’Amato. All have results most trainers can’t seem to replicate. Don’t see them with a long line of positives. I can’t say they aren’t cheating, but you can’t say they are. Should there be ...
Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

[Robert Fischer]

There's different levels to this stuff...

On one hand you're a man, and you aren't going to publicly accuse other men of things.

On the other hand you are observing, maybe even betting, and you may or may not see the reality of the system. You bet what you see. You may talk to your buddy about what you see. But you aren't going to shout what you see to strangers. You are going to respect that other man's space.


and there's also a separate topic on 'proof'

We are in a era (maybe all eras were like this, but now we got the internet...), but we are in an era where understanding and insight is rare. And 80% or more of people think in a herd mentality. If a topic comes up, most people are going to first 'repeat the rules'. Then comes the accepted summary of a thing. (Often these are the same). But if you want to think or discuss beyond that, you are on your own with that stuff...These guys need 'proof'... Even in so-called intellectual discussions, you will find most people incapable of seeing and understanding a system. You be asked for a 'source' on things that seem absolutely obvious to you. The idea of ownership of insight and understanding on a subject, - to a degree of competence that you can assign probabilities of your own, separate from the rules or the accepted summary, is foreign to almost everyone.

This mentality and these types of thinkers are why markets work.
This is why you can play a rigged game that's designed as a wealth-concentration-mechanism with exorbitant fees, and yet have a mathematical certainty of growing a small fraction of your bankroll.

Source:
Lee, Yong-Seok and Alcino J Silva. “The molecular and cellular biology of enhanced cognition” Nature reviews. Neuroscience vol. 10,2 (2009): 126-40.

:coffee: ok, I need to cut back on the coffee

[Igotabeef]

Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?

Pletcher horses break down all the time, are retired before the triple crown even, yet the guy who takes the heat is the one who focuses on winning the Derby with a program made for peaking for that time at the cost of running well later. His owners seem to like it. You don’t.

If you are so smart and know what he is doing, you should be too busy counting your money and not be commenting over 2000 times in a message board. My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police. I bet and attempt to win. The whole group of you that find everything to complain about and don’t understand you won’t change anything amaze me. I’d suggest a hobby but this seems to be it, and it clearly makes you miserable.

[chadk66]

with the two year old stock Baffert has he better be winning at that clip.

[clicknow]

When their 2 and 3 year old horses race each other, who has the better success?

I prefer the trainers who can patiently keep a horse in condition, winning and running until 5 years old and longer.

It's sort of like music. There will always be one-hit wonders, and short careers, then there's the ones who keep on producing for 5x longer than those.

That to me is real *talent*.

[clicknow]

My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police.

I don't see morality and common sense as mutually exclusive, but then again, I don't see success as needing to be exempt from top-notch ethics, either.

Plenty of people have managed to combine both. It's not easy, that is why there are not a WHOLE lot of successful people who are famous for being ultra-ethical....but there are some.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/cannonshell/status/1066850298809991173

[Spalding No!]

On 07/28, Honeyfromthesouth was not trained by Bob Baffert. The trainer was David Hofmans. Filly was transferred to Baffert sometime after her debut.

[davew]

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?


Horse racing is not supposed to be a contact sport like the NFL.

[cj]

I'm not sure what the mystery is here. He has most of the best horses.

[ubercapper]

I'm not sure what the mystery is here. He has most of the best horses.

True, and he probably runs his outfit like trainers of old like Allen Jerkens, who got a bunch of new horses in late winter/early spring, put them through their paces then sent a bunch away and brought in more to cull through so he really only had the cream of the crop each year when all was said and done.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/Mike45nyc/status/1067072593990205441

[PaceAdvantage]

Magic Elixir is redundant

There are no non-magic elixirs....or at least there shouldn't be...

[chadk66]

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?

Pletcher horses break down all the time, are retired before the triple crown even, yet the guy who takes the heat is the one who focuses on winning the Derby with a program made for peaking for that time at the cost of running well later. His owners seem to like it. You don’t.

If you are so smart and know what he is doing, you should be too busy counting your money and not be commenting over 2000 times in a message board. My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police. I bet and attempt to win. The whole group of you that find everything to complain about and don’t understand you won’t change anything amaze me. I’d suggest a hobby but this seems to be it, and it clearly makes you miserable.not only that but track records would be getting smoked all the time

[Prioress Ply]

Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

Sharp post. It echoes something I've said for a long time. Everyone knows this is nothing but musical chairs at or near the end of tune. They're grabbing what they can while the game continues, which exacerbates how brazen they are willing to get. Everyone knows it's going to end--and end soon, as least as we know it now.

Talk to people in PETA. You think they are content with dog racing? :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Talk to people in PETA. You think they are content with dog racing? :DPETA will never have any major impact on the future of horse racing in the USA.

NEVER.

[dilanesp]

PETA will never have any major impact on the future of horse racing in the USA.

NEVER.

Depends on how many people they persuade.

Animal rights strikes me as a movement that progresses slowly over time. But it does progress.

[GMB@BP]

PETA will never have any major impact on the future of horse racing in the USA.

NEVER.

I dont know if I can agree with this, just has to get the right state and ballot measure.

[iamt]

Horse Racing as opposed to greyhounds is more protected from PETA and any other parties who might wish to close it down; The industry wide economic impact is huge, from feed, breeding and stable staff than greyhound kennels.


However, a lot of the economic and regulatory things at a state and track level that brought down greyhounds are similar in horse racing and while PETA probably won't be the cause of it closing in my lifetime, they will certainly be trying to advance the cause.