Turf Sires ... just wondering...

[Observer]

Who is everyone's favorite turf sires ... the ones that make you take notice, especially the more obscure, less obvious sires.

[smf]

For sprints, Dixie Brass. Lot of winners down here by that sire at different class levels. Local turf sprint sire= Smile, but his last crop was last year I think, but his runners were good on grass and had speed.

Routes, (La sires) Zarbyev (good ones show speed, very few Zarbys are off the pace types, but are good turfers), Gothic Revival, Red Attack,..... (okla) Here We Come has had good ones.

Nationally, I like AP Indy and Lil E Tee. They seem to win early in the spring at 3 (yo). Get some good prices on these at FG.

Lord Avie has had some serious butt kickers.

[GR1@HTR]

Aticle on top 25 turf sires below. Starts on Pg.7

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-FEB2001.pdf

[Que]

Observer,

Although pedigree is something I want to incorporate into my handicapping, take this for what's it worth, which may not be much, since I'm no pedigree expert. However, I did write a program once that handicapped by pedigrees alone--some days it was totally awesome, but other days it was a total disaster. Although I can't remember exactly, I think that overall it had a slightly positive ROI; however, I couldn't use it because it would have very long losing streaks--something that I couldn't mentally deal with. Anyway, although I haven't updated the ratings in more than a year, I resurrected the program's top ten turf sires below:

#1. ROYAL ACADEMY (sire of ROYAL STRAND)
#2. RAINBOW QUEST (sire of FIJI)
#3. KRIS (sire of SINGLE EMPIRE)
#4. GENEROUS (sire of WORLDLY WAYS)
#5. PERRAULT (sire of PERCUTANT)
#6. WAAJIB (sire of DIGGIT)
#7. MOST WELCOME (sire of PRIZE GIVING)
#8. WHEATLY HALL (sire of BUTLER ON DUTY)
#9. DARSHAAN (sire of SAYARSHAN)
#10. COMMON GROUNDS (sire of HOUSEKEEPER)

However, the turf sire that I always hated betting against was LORD AT WAR.

Que.

[Observer]

Que.,

#3 is Kris S., right?

Also, you're right about Lord At War ... definite sharp turf sire. Kimmel had a horse returning today at Aqueduct for her third start. A daughter of Lord at War, Xi'an switched to the turf and reported home with a strong finish for the win .. paying $10.40 as the second choice.

I personally keep my eye out for Transworld. But thanks for all the input ... anyone else??

[smf]

GR1,

Thanks for posting the pedigree info up. I can dig into that stuff all day long and never get enuff. Something I saw caught my eye--Cozzene hadn't won a first time turf race? That's mind boggling. Just a fast check before I left for LS today, I could only find DINE WITH WINE in 99 winning first time on grass. I believe your (hdw) info is 12 months inclusive if I'm not mistaken.

Well, you know what's coming (he he he). Tonight at Chuck E Cheese @ Grand Prarie, a Cozzene filly won her first turf try, so those #'s will need some recalibrating :). Mindy Willis claimed her (actually Jay Cuccia did at FG from Peitz and apparently was xferred to Willis, a smart move) and gave her the same pattern of works she gave IMAGES IN THE SKY, her only winner off the claim in 6 previous tries. Her 5 "losers" didn't have this pattern of works/ stretchout to 2 turns.

I guess what I'm getting at is the numbers don't always tell the story. Sometimes "art", to quote Druther, comes into play. At least it did here.

Although I'm not an HTR member, I'm impressed by your HTR trainer info you spoke of. You guys seem to have a very good thing going there, one that Tommy C cashed in on very nicely (130k). Please don't take this as a knock b/c it certainly isn't. In fact, your trainer "stuff" will show this as a positive trainer move in the future, I'm sure.

Thanks again for the pedigree info. I'll be up all nite looking at it, lol.

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah, saw the race....Cozzene stats I have are 15% first time turfers win on 162 samples and 16% of starters win at that distance with 1181. The 0.00 for Cozzene on the report represents ROI and not the number of winners. All those numbers running together can be confusing at times. The 15% FTS is a respectable fig for sure. Just perhaps not enough Cozzene FTS longshots have hit the board to get the ROI into the positve range.

[smf]

Thank you, sir. I read it in haste before hitting the door for LS. Thought I was looking at win%'s first time turf.

Still, I couldn't find but that one (dine with wine) from our tracks here. Definitely caught me by surprise. And you're correct about the roi....If that runner were by most any other sire, it w/h gone off much higher I believe.

You said you saw the race. I couldn't believe Panas didn't pressure more than she did. Perhaps she was just following orders but I was quite happy w/ that 48 half w/ no pressure. The pace didn't favor Stidham's runner at all. Nothing Gerard could do, really.

[Que]

Observer,

No, I meant KRIS (GB) (1976, by SHARPEN UP) and not KRIS S. (1977, by ROBERTO). Unfortuantely, I think KRIS only had four or five turf runners last year in North America--but they accumulated over $500K in turf winnings. KRIS S had well over a million in turf earnings, but he had almost ten times the number of runners as KRIS. Good thread--especially since turf races have never been one of my strong points, so I can use all the help I can get in this area.

Que.

[Druther]

SMF

Just don't carry that "art" stuff too far. :)

Next thing you know, we'll have the whole world using our own little secrets. Then the mutuels head south.

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah, had put my money on #6 Mariaworth thinking it would be able to get an easy lead and hopefully hang on. But that was not even close to being the case. So much for that...

[smf]

Druther,

Sometimes art beats science. Like you've always said, "there's more than one way to beat the races". That'll always ring true.

GR1,

Your choice may be worth a look next out. The maiden fields here have been weak.

Finally read the whole document you posted. Great stuff!

[FortuneHunter]

Originally posted by GR1
Aticle on top 25 turf sires below. Starts on Pg.7

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-FEB2001.pdf

Nice report, clean, crisp, and easy to understand.

A couple of Questions:

1) When "limited data" is indicated, what is the threshold? 50, 100, 200?

2) What is I. V. (impact value)?

[GR1@HTR]

FH,

Not sure what limited data means...But yes IV is impact value.

[jotb]

I don't think turf sires are the key when handicapping turf events. I would concentrate more on the dam's side. If the dam has already dropped several winners on the turf then it will help if the horse is bred on top.

Check the breeding on a horse called SSOOSA who was trained by Neil Terreciano in NY. That dam has foaled many turf winners.

[Observer]

jotb,

I'll look for any edge I think might be helpful. There have certainly been some interesting things posted on this threat.

Since sires have dozens more runners each year as opposed to a dam's one (hopefully) runner, it's easier to find a sire who excels with turf runners than it is to find a dam, especially those dams who are still new to the producing game.

You are right though, when you have a dam who has dropped successful turf runners, you don't want to ignore it. So now I'm curious ... do you have any particular favorite dams?