Neilsen Sports Research says Racing better get its act together with competitive odds

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1031962327237582848


There’s a way to do this but the Industry should have gotten started yesterday. Love to see California lead by lowering the takeout and breakage on higher churn wagers.

[Dave Schwartz]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1031962327237582848


There’s a way to do this but the Industry should have gotten started yesterday. Love to see California lead by lowering the takeout and breakage on higher churn wagers.

What does "higher churn wagers" mean?

Does this mean bigger bets or bigger bettors?

[cj]

What does "higher churn wagers" mean?

Does this mean bigger bets or bigger bettors?

Higher churn wagers are the straight pools, then exactas/doubles, etc.

[Dave Schwartz]

Higher churn wagers are the straight pools, then exactas/doubles, etc.

Ah. Thanks.


What's not to agree with?

[ReplayRandall]

Nationalized fixed odds straight pool wagering for horse racing is the answer.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1032001209245216768

[Afleet]

out of 13 votes only 1 vote for:

No, things are where they should be.

How could anyone think 25% takeout is 'where things should be'

:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1032066430697594880

Excerpt:

“The actual effective takeout rate is far higher than what’s even being reported,” Cummings said. "That 17.3 percent – that’s the average published takeout rate – doesn’t really factor in elements like breakage, which is something that we’re really quite keen on and talking about and really educating the public.”

While takeout is the percent of money a racetrack retains from pari-mutuel pools for race purses, taxes or operating expenses, breakage is the pennies retained by a racetrack or state after a pari-mutuel payoff is rounded down to nickels or dimes.

[whisperlunch]

I’ve never understood why us players do not boycott or join and Lobby to get rid of breakage. It’s theft in my opinion and it adds up fast. Just ridiculous how they gouge their customers.

[jay68802]

out of 13 votes only 1 vote for:

No, things are where they should be.

How could anyone think 25% takeout is 'where things should be'

:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:
:puke:

Maybe PA let LoneF come back.

[clicknow]

I’ve never understood why us players do not boycott or join and Lobby to get rid of breakage. It’s theft in my opinion and it adds up fast. Just ridiculous how they gouge their customers.

IF it were going to race horse retirement / rehoming or injured/paralyzed jockey or exercise rider fund, I could live with it.

Unfortunately, it's not. Yeah, it's theft.

[Gamblor]

Breakage doesn’t move a 17.3% take to 25% though... not unless you’re rounding $8.09 down to $5.00

[Andy Asaro]

I heard the stock market was taking a look at the Horse Racing breakage model. :lol: Then all the pr*cks who don't want to change it to a penny would get it. :rant:

[Robert Fischer]

FIELD SIZE APPROPRIATE MEASURES
<5 horses = cancellation, rescheduled race to a later date
=5 horses = 10% Takeout WPS
=6 horses = 12% Takeout WPS
=7 horses = 14% Takeout WPS
≥8 horses = 16% Takeout WPS (capped/ceiling)

[Dave Schwartz]

FIELD SIZE APPROPRIATE MEASURES
<5 horses = cancellation, rescheduled race to a later date
=5 horses = 10% Takeout WPS
=6 horses = 12% Takeout WPS
=7 horses = 14% Takeout WPS
≥8 horses = 16% Takeout WPS (capped/ceiling)

I really like this idea.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Really the track gets a whole lot more than the take-out don’t they...? Sure 15% for win and 22-25% for exotics...so for example if the total handle for one card is $400,000. The tracks is said to make about roughly 20% of that in take-out or $80,000.

But in reality, there is a whole slew of bettors that bet, win, lose, win, CHURN it all away so that the track gets ALL THEIR MONEY over the long run...and multiple that times most of the bettors that play it all back and leave with no money, so how much of that $400, 000 is the track really keeping...?

[Thomas Roulston]

Takeout isn't the issue. Field size is - and to fix that, there must be fewer races - and also allowing more soft-turf races to remain on the grass, which can be done, for example, at all three NYRA tracks by dismantling the permanent barriers between the outer and inner turf courses and making the turf courses just like the ones at Laurel, Gulfstream, and Arlington.

[jay68802]

Takeout isn't the issue. Field size is - and to fix that, there must be fewer races - and also allowing more soft-turf races to remain on the grass, which can be done, for example, at all three NYRA tracks by dismantling the permanent barriers between the outer and inner turf courses and making the turf courses just like the ones at Laurel, Gulfstream, and Arlington.

Takeout is a issue. Put all the bettors on the same playing field. Rebate all bets and keep the take high, or lower the take and get rid of rebates. Agree with you on field size. The 4 and 5 horse races should be canceled. They are running for purses that are high enough. So purse size is really not a issue. Tie the purse of the race to the number of betting interests. Put it at X amount per betting interest up to a maximum purse. Figure the full purse amount on a 8 horse field.

[thaskalos]

Or raise the sports-betting takeouts to the same level as the horse-racing takeouts. That way...there will be nothing for the bettors to complain about. :ThmbUp:

[chadk66]

I really like this idea.this would certainly curb scratching. And force tracks to punish those that scratch just for the hell of it and without a medical reason. It just blows me away at the nonchalant manner in which people scratch now days. There used to be penalties for scratching.

[elhelmete]

Or raise the sports-betting takeouts to the same level as the horse-racing takeouts. That way...there will be nothing for the bettors to complain about. :ThmbUp:

I guarantee the trend is in that direction.

Just like the triple-zero roulette wheels and 6-5 blackjack.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The dipshits in charge need to make it interesting.


I'll Parlay the :2: in the sixth with the Jets.


Back that wager, and we haz some game.

[Franco Santiago]

Anytime there are uncompetitive fields, win pool bettors are taking it up the wazoo, paying way more than the advertised rate.

If I told you that the effective takeout in the win pool for Monmouth so far this year is 38% would you believe me?

Well, you don't have to, but someone with the right tools (Dave Schwartz?) can confirm it.


Why is this happening? Uncompetitive fields. The favorite is winning 47% of the time.

So yeah, the rake has to be lowered, but also, fields have to be more competitive (and larger).

But - you do have a choice of where and when to bet. Save your wazoo and be discriminate! :D

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1037855006160867330

[AltonKelsey]

Been looking at this circus too long, and at this point, hearing them still rant about lowering takeout is nauseating.


A poker game with a house rake of 20% would fold its tent in an hour.

[AltonKelsey]

Really the track gets a whole lot more than the take-out don’t they...? Sure 15% for win and 22-25% for exotics...so for example if the total handle for one card is $400,000. The tracks is said to make about roughly 20% of that in take-out or $80,000.

But in reality, there is a whole slew of bettors that bet, win, lose, win, CHURN it all away so that the track gets ALL THEIR MONEY over the long run...and multiple that times most of the bettors that play it all back and leave with no money, so how much of that $400, 000 is the track really keeping...?


Good point , wrong question.



The handle or part of it isn't 'kept'. What's kept are the original dollars that the players are willing/able to lose


Track makes 80k in your example. Maybe the players had 160K to lose when they 'walked in'


So the track kept 50% of that amount. Not the 20% people think of.


How come all these high priced consultants never deal with this?



Afraid to open the can of worms ?

[JerryBoyle]

Is it fair to compare the rates? Pro sports stand on their own w/r/t revenue generation. They don't need betting to remain profitable. I believe tracks earn most revenue via takeout. Is that wrong? One could say that they should make it as attractive as pro sports such that racing could earn the same $ amount via TV deals and the like, but that doesn't seem probable even with a great product.

[dlivery]

Misinformed about the product to wager on.

Might as well tell the customer
Here I will take your money and spin the wheel.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1037855006160867330


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caton bredar and 9 others liked your Tweet 27m27 minutes ago

[Mike_412]

I feel like there's one of these conferences every year with the takeout being too high being a main point, yet nothing happens. Giant dog and pony show.

[green80]

Good point , wrong question.



The handle or part of it isn't 'kept'. What's kept are the original dollars that the players are willing/able to lose


Track makes 80k in your example. Maybe the players had 160K to lose when they 'walked in'


So the track kept 50% of that amount. Not the 20% people think of.


How come all these high priced consultants never deal with this?



Afraid to open the can of worms ?


But keep in mind that the track has to put up a large percentage of the purse money. The 80k that the track kept was likely distributed in purse money. Also keep in mind that the state has to give a % of what's bet to the state for taxes on these wagers.


We need to hear the other side of the story as to what % of the "take" is actually profit after taxes and expenses. Track make some money off admissions, concessions, etc. but what does it cost to operate? Lets look at the whole picture here.

[Poindexter]

Just a reminder that when the guy gives an example of the sports better churning his money 20 x and the horse player churns his money 5 x, that isn't even the complete picture. It is much worse than that. First off rebated whales and sharps in the horse racing industry are driving up the takeout far higher than 20% on the non rebated/recreational bettor. 2nd the sports bettor playing game by game is playing roughly 50 % wagers. One week he is 10-10, the next he is 8-12, the next he is 11-9, the next 11-9. 4 weeks, 40-40, at $20 a pop he has lost a whoping $80 on $1760 bet. The horse better is playing 6-1's, 10-1, exactas, trifectas, superfectas, super high 5's, pick 4's, pick 5'... Even at $20 bucks a race or play(for the mult race wagers), he can easily lose $1000 or $1200 if not more on his $1600 bet. Eventually over time he will reach his mean -15% to -40% whatever the case may be, but new blood is often going to be chased out of the game long before he figures out what his mean is.

[davew]

Breakage doesn’t move a 17.3% take to 25% though... not unless you’re rounding $8.09 down to $5.00

what about $2.39 to $2.20 ?

[AskinHaskin]

rebated whales and sharps in the horse racing industry are driving up the takeout far higher than 20% on the non rebated/recreational bettor. 2nd the sports bettor playing game by game is playing roughly 50 % wagers. One week he is 10-10, the next he is 8-12, the next he is 11-9, the next 11-9. 4 weeks, 40-40, at $20 a pop he has lost a whoping $80 on $1760 bet. The horse better is playing 6-1's, 10-1, exactas, trifectas, superfectas, super high 5's, pick 4's, pick 5'... Even at $20 bucks a race or play(for the mult race wagers), he can easily lose $1000 or $1200 if not more on his $1600 bet. Eventually over time he will reach his mean -15% to -40% whatever the case may be, but new blood is often going to be chased out of the game long before he figures out what his mean is.


... yet again, it is ALL OF YOU who are still the problem in this equation (for reasons each connected to that bottom line.)

The idea that track management should think or allow that you might solve yourselves on behalf of the customerbase which matters in this scenario, is insane!

Those other wagering alternatives aren’t even connected to the wagering done on their outcomes, so they cannot be compared to an industry which exists entirely because of the wagering done on it.


The industry doing anything at all for the tiny sliver of its customerbase which is the collective “you” before addressing the masses you’ve been burying over time, would be stupid.

Once racing starts playing to its strengths and not to its weaknesses (namely “you”, collectively) then it will once again compete on the square with and other venture.

“YOU” remain the problem and as such, you can not BE any part of the solution.

[Jeff P]

Let's kill all the horseplayers. (Because that'll solve all of racing's problems.) :rolleyes:

Let's kill all the lawyers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_kill_all_the_lawyers

"Let's kill all the lawyers" is a line from William Shakespeare's Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2. The full quote is "The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers".[1] It is among Shakespeare's most famous lines,[2] as well as one of his most controversial,[3] and has been used as the title of movies[4] and books.[5] Shakespeare may be making a joke when character "Dick The Butcher" suggests one of the ways the band of pretenders to the throne can improve the country is to kill all the lawyers. Dick is a rough character, a killer as evil as his name implies,[1] like the other henchmen, and this is his rough solution to his perceived societal problem.[6] There is some disagreement with the interpretation that one of Shakespeare's sympathetic characters would make a joke suggesting that killing lawyers would make the world better.[7]




-jp

.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/DavidPurdum/status/1063186474013810689