Julien Leparoux at Saratoga...Why?

[ZippyChippy423]

I remember he did poorly last year at Toga and this year even worse. Always thought of him as a great jockey but coming to Saratoga must suck the life right out of him. Why does he make the pilgrimage to NY every year?

[parlay]

I was thinking the same thing yesterday.
Of course i like his horse in the 4th today:bang::bang:
If the track has some moisture i love him, but he is just not getting anything live.
Not sure what it is, maybe someone has some insight they can share.
Does he not have an agent with the right connections here?
Larceny :3: is precociously bred to sprint on top and Bernardini on the bottom.
Mud would be fantastic.
Of course, race is loaded with expensive debutantes. Chad has a $475k Big Drama :7: that is bred perfectly for this with Castellano up. The other longshot is Kimmel :8:, paid $210k for a Flashback. Got a good education first time out and will move forward. My only apprehension is the 5 winning siblings didn't win at 2.

[Andy Asaro]

He's there to add to the misery of anyone betting his mounts. He loses uglier than any better than average jock ever IMO

[Jeff P]

Imo, most of the really good riders are really good because they have a tendency to ride each mount based on the abilities/tendencies of the horse they are on.

Meaning -- if they are on a need the lead type they establish competitive early position by being aggressive right from the break.

Or if they are on a closer or presser and they see several other riders gunning for the lead soon after the break, they establish competitive tracking position by taking back a bit.

Imo, Leparoux has a tendency not to do any of that.

Imo, he has a tendency to ride nearly every horse he is on the same way.

If he is on a need the lead type, instead of getting the horse into the race early: I've seen too many times when he loses all chance because he backs the horse out of the race soon after the break - and loses contact with the field.

If he is on a closer and the surface isn't deep and tiring, or if he's riding a closer in a race that has minimal pace contention: I've seen too many times when he loses all chance by doing the same thing - taking back too far soon after the break - and losing contact with the field in the process.

But --

Imo, when he's riding a closer on soft or tiring ground:

Leparoux's your guy.



-jp

.

[Tom]

Kind of a tangent, but I notice that the EB STATS for riders, trainers doesn't show them if they have 0 wins. So if Julian has 50 starts and 0 starts, you would never know he was riding there. Kind a big thing for racing stats.
Must be altering their charts to save $0.78 is more pressing for them.

[parlay]

He has about a third of the mounts that the top riders have had.
He is riding for limited trainers.
The trainers he is riding for are low percentage at this meet, and i don't think it is because their riding him.
Not prepared to say he stinks, unless he screws up in the 4th:lol::bang:

[Redboard]

I was thinking the same thing yesterday.
Of course i like his horse in the 4th today:bang::bang:
If the track has some moisture i love him, but he is just not getting anything live.
Not sure what it is, maybe someone has some insight they can share.
Does he not have an agent with the right connections here?
Larceny :3: is precociously bred to sprint on top and Bernardini on the bottom.
Mud would be fantastic.
Of course, race is loaded with expensive debutantes. Chad has a $475k Big Drama :7: that is bred perfectly for this with Castellano up. The other longshot is Kimmel :8:, paid $210k for a Flashback. Got a good education first time out and will move forward. My only apprehension is the 5 winning siblings didn't win at 2.

I think the favs, :2: , :7: , will be hard to beat. Those two trainers have made a living out of these 2YrOld MSW races at the SPA. One of those has to fire IMO. :5: will be tough too.


I have a rule to always toss Julien, but it does come back to bite me when I least expect it. :bang:

We'll see what happens. :cool:

[Tom]

Great point, Jeff.
Even the top guys have a tendency to think they know better than the horse.
They don't.

Julien doesn't win race, he inherits them.
I see him a limited ability jock who only wins when he stumbles into a perfect storm.

[Robert Fischer]

He's an average rider in a jock's room with a few/several hall-of-famers...

For a while he was 'fashionable'

his meet highlight was that dead-heat with the lone-speed long-shot, in a soft-turf stakes route early in the meet. He almost stole the race and managed to get a share of the winners purse in a race vs that consistent Albertrani chalk, and that wise-guy/'steam' Mott runner that somehow managed to do a ton of running and close the gap after being rank for much of the early going. That was a perfect ride by Leparoux.

[Robert Fischer]

Imo, most of the really good riders are really good because they have a tendency to ride each mount based on the abilities/tendencies of the horse they are on.

Meaning -- if they are on a need the lead type they establish competitive early position by being aggressive right from the break.

Or if they are on a closer or presser and they see several other riders gunning for the lead soon after the break, they establish competitive tracking position by taking back a bit.

Imo, Leparoux has a tendency not to do any of that.

Imo, he has a tendency to ride nearly every horse he is on the same way.

If he is on a need the lead type, instead of getting the horse into the race early: I've seen too many times when he loses all chance because he backs the horse out of the race soon after the break - and loses contact with the field.

If he is on a closer and the surface isn't deep and tiring, or if he's riding a closer in a race that has minimal pace contention: I've seen too many times when he loses all chance by doing the same thing - taking back too far soon after the break - and losing contact with the field in the process.

But --

Imo, when he's riding a closer on soft or tiring ground:

Leparoux's your guy.



-jp

.

Have to agree with you also.


Some of my worst bets involved assumptions that a jock would make a necessary tactical adjustment (make the lead or merge to save ground from a wide post near the first turn, ask from the rail, sit off an obvious duel instead of joining the fray 3-across, 'read' the break from an outside post in an extended sprint, let a cheap long shot go if they want to burn-out early, etc...................................). If there are any tactics/thinking involved, I need a HUGE significant overlay. Can't assume you are on the same page, however obvious it may seem.

[Jeff P]

Thought it might be a good idea to post some data.

This is what I have in the database, Leparoux at Saratoga meet to date current through yesterday 08-17-2018.

query start: 8/18/2018 9:39:24 AM
query end: 8/18/2018 9:39:24 AM
elapsed time: 0 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND RIDER='LEPAROUX JULIEN R'
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2018#
AND [DATE] <= #08-17-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE

Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 32.60 104.20 68.50
Bet -100.00 -100.00 -100.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -67.40 4.20 -31.50

Wins 3 10 13
Plays 50 50 50
PCT .0600 .2000 .2600

ROI 0.3260 1.0420 0.6850
Avg Mut 10.87 10.42 5.27


This first table shows the data from the above sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for an early speed factor called EarlyConsensus:
By: SQL-F19 Rank (EarlyConsensus)

Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
2 -4.80 16.00 0.7000 2 8 .2500 4.1667 5.60
3 -6.60 28.00 0.7643 1 14 .0714 1.1905 21.40
4 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00

This table shows the sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for a late speed factor called LateConsensus:
By: SQL-F22 Rank (LateConsensus)

Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -0.80 12.00 0.9333 2 6 .3333 5.5556 5.60
2 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
3 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 13.40 8.00 2.6750 1 4 .2500 4.1667 21.40
7 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00


This table shows the sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for final odds:
By: Odds Rank

Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 3.20 8.00 1.4000 2 4 .5000 8.3333 5.60
2 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
3 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 -18.00 18.00 0.0000 0 9 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 9.40 12.00 1.7833 1 6 .1667 2.7778 21.40
8 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00


Some observations:

Mr. Leparoux is 3 for 50 at Saratoga meet to date.

Slicing and dicing a sample of three winners makes it hard to draw meaningful conclusions.

BUT --

He's 0 for 8 when riding the top EarlyConsensus horse.

He's 2 for 6 when riding the top LateConsensus horse.

He's 2 for 4 when riding post time favorites. (When you're on the best horse sometimes you're going to win no matter what you do as a rider.)


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

...Some of my worst bets involved assumptions that a jock would make a necessary tactical adjustment (make the lead or merge to save ground from a wide post near the first turn, ask from the rail, sit off an obvious duel instead of joining the fray 3-across, 'read' the break from an outside post in an extended sprint, let a cheap long shot go if they want to burn-out early, etc...................................). If there are any tactics/thinking involved, I need a HUGE significant overlay. Can't assume you are on the same page, however obvious it may seem.


I have to agree with this. :ThmbUp:


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

Anyone realize what happened in The Alabama?

Leparoux sent from an outside post.

Actually sent - then crossed and cleared.

Didn't win the race. But imo he gave his filly every opportunity if good enough.

Any chance his agent reads Paceadvantage? :D



-jp

.

[camourous]

Anyone realize what happened in The Alabama?

Leparoux sent from an outside post.

Actually sent - then crossed and cleared.

Didn't win the race. But imo he gave his filly every opportunity if good enough.

Any chance his agent reads Paceadvantage? :D



-jp

.

Not sure if going a suicide pace for the distance is giving your horse a chance to win, but he did ride a better race than Smith did

[Tom]

And of course, today, in the Alabama, he goes right to the front in insane fractions and cooks his horse!

He must read the forums here! :lol:

[Redboard]

Poor, poor, Alfalfa...er… I mean Julien, was 0 for 5 today, but had a nice second in the Lake Placid at 10-1.

[ZippyChippy423]

I appreciate all the info and analysis but does anyone know exactly why Julien comes to Saratoga when he would have so much more success at like Ellis Park etc. Maybe he has family in the area.?

[Tom]

I loved Andy Serling's comments about Irad Otiz after the last race today....
"He broke fast, got the lead. Why did he then rip the horses face off?!:lol:

Irad one of the worst jockey in history, IMHO.
If he is on my horse I will pass the race before I bet the hump.

[clicknow]

He has about a third of the mounts that the top riders have had.
He is riding for limited trainers.
The trainers he is riding for are low percentage at this meet

As opposed to J.V. who is getting top mounts and has seconditis mostly it seems.

[Afleet]

He is ice cold

[startngate]

I appreciate all the info and analysis but does anyone know exactly why Julien comes to Saratoga when he would have so much more success at like Ellis Park etc. Maybe he has family in the area.?Without having looked it up so I'm guessing, it's most likely because the top trainers he is riding for shipped to NY and asked him to go.

Or, it could be a "working vacation". He doesn't want to grind it out at Ellis, so he goes to the Spa to ride a couple a day and take it easy. Better weather, better horses.

Here's an interesting stat. His 57 mounts and 3 wins have earned $568k in purses. The leading rider at Ellis (Bridgmohan) has $622k in earnings on 85 starts and 22 wins.

If he manages to win 10-15 races at the meet, he probably does better than he would at Ellis.

[jahura2]

I remember he did poorly last year at Toga and this year even worse. Always thought of him as a great jockey but coming to Saratoga must suck the life right out of him. Why does he make the pilgrimage to NY every year?


Not a fan of him at all especially in NY. Too passive for me and too passive for the NY circuit. However when he is at Kentucky Downs for that very brief meet you do have to pay attention to any of his mounts.

[Redboard]

Really the answer is obvious. He has over 2500 lifetime wins — he's trying to catch a big fish. So if he wins on a 1st timer in a MSW, who may have been 10-1, he will get the next mount, and the next mount, and so on, until maybe it leads to a TC or BC.

More big fish swim at the SPA than Ellis.

[TheGarMan]

I loved Andy Serling's comments about Irad Otiz after the last race today....
"He broke fast, got the lead. Why did he then rip the horses face off?!:lol:



Yea, I thought that was odd how Serling roasted him nationally on the Fox FS1 show..

So rare these days to hear on air talent lambaste a rider like that.

No love lost there for sure :D

[ZippyChippy423]

Julien has no mounts today. Why?

[LemonSoupKid]

When it's turf, discount Leparoux's horse at your own peril

I learned that long ago.

[cj]

Yea, I thought that was odd how Serling roasted him nationally on the Fox FS1 show..

So rare these days to hear on air talent lambaste a rider like that.

No love lost there for sure :D

I seriously doubt Andy dislikes Irad. He is an analyst that gives his informed opinion. He praises deserving rides as well and doesn't play favorites, good or bad. We need more guys like him.

[Redboard]

Julien has his 3rd win of the meet!

[Tom]

When you see him out in front, you know are giving a shit ride!

[clicknow]

Julien has his 3rd win of the meet!

Like someone already said, watch out for Lep on turf. That winner paid $33.40.

That's about 7x what the chalk jocks give you for a win.

[JustRalph]

He made them look like fools in the Sword Dancer. Huge early move to the lead and then lulled them to sleep until the top of the stretch. That horse was ready too.......

[clicknow]

When it's turf, discount Leparoux's horse at your own peril

I learned that long ago.

I had to look up who to attribute that idea to...it was you. :)

[Tom]

He made them look like fools in the Sword Dancer. Huge early move to the lead and then lulled them to sleep until the top of the stretch. That horse was ready too.......

The horse was smarter than all the jockeys in that race.

[the little guy]

I seriously doubt Andy dislikes Irad. He is an analyst that gives his informed opinion. He praises deserving rides as well and doesn't play favorites, good or bad. We need more guys like him.


Irad is a terrific person and one of my favorite people at the track. I don't understand how these people think because I'm critical I also don't like the person.


I ripped Javier recently and he and I are friends as well. It's never personal. Why would it be?