The 20 Cent Jackpot Six coming to Santa Anita. Wonderful

[Andy Asaro]

:bang:

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1030491991329529856

[dilanesp]

:bang:

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1030491991329529856

Has anyone done an anal as to which bet handles more? Because I assume the jackpots must be popular given they are proliferating.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/1030508387161628677

[JohnGalt1]

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.

[VigorsTheGrey]

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.
Could it be that we are now living in an age where 3 suckers are born every minute?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1030530020198965248

They will make more revenue with it. Probably a lot more. I'm still against this crap. It takes advantage of people who don't know any better IMO. And it set them up for the Whales to rip them off like they normally do.

[dilanesp]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1030530020198965248

They will make more revenue with it. Probably a lot more. I'm still against this crap. It takes advantage of people who don't know any better IMO. And it set them up for the Whales to rip them off like they normally do.

Bear in mind that for 98 percent or more of the player pool, all bets are sucker bets.

And in the scheme of things, this is a cheaper sucker bet.

[Prioress Ply]

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/1030508387161628677

Just like the 2011 increase in takeout was 'temporary' not permanent, right Ritvo?

[jay68802]

And no one saw this coming? The cash cow not being implemented here? Of all places?

[GMB@BP]

So on normal days what is the takeout, 25%? So with 25% on a 70% pool, whats like 50% takeout, right if you are a multiple ticket winner?

[Andy Asaro]

So on normal days what is the takeout, 25%? So with 25% on a 70% pool, whats like 50% takeout, right if you are a multiple ticket winner?

It's only good on mandatory payout days.

[JohnGalt1]

It's only good on mandatory payout days.



I disagree.


I've seen many cases where payoffs are very small on those days.

These examples are from my sometimes faulty memory.

Prairie Meadows paid $600+ in their final pick 5 this year.


Golden Gate one year paid $400 because 2 off the turf races were paid for all runners.



Gulfstream paid about $4,000 with many millions in the pool in one mandatory day.


More money is usually paid out during the normal run of this sucker bet.


The best and only times I even think of playing it is if the ticket is so cheap that the loss is inconsequential--like I did a few years ago when I noticed my contenders would cost $6.00. The darn thing hit and paid $60.00--yea me!!


Or if you strongly believe you can take the whole pool.

Good luck with that.

[Poindexter]

My opinion is that for the smaller player the $2 pick six is way too expensive. Obviously a 20 cent jackpot pick 6 with a big percentage being held out is not exactly player friendly, but there are a couple of aspects of the wager that make it tolerable. 1) The amount of money in the pools chasing the jackpot provides better value on more obvious combinations and of course if by miracle you are the only person to bring down the pool you hit the jackpot. It does happen fairly often, so that aspect cannot be dismissed.

As a rule, when looking at the payoffs, compare it to a pick 3 parlay. If the payoff is in the same boat, you are doing okay, if it comes back much lower that excessive take out bit you. I haven't studied it that much, but I believe as that jackpot carryover gets over half a million the payoffs tend to get more fair (more in line with a p3 parlay). The bigger the carryover, the more sucker money that enters the pool.

For the small player, they are likely going to stay in the game putting in $48 into a jackpot pick 6 where they actually have some life and have a chance of hitting (even with a depressed payoff) then they are putting in $48 into a $2 pick six, where they typically have a very tiny chance of winning. I think in terms of enjoyment, the Rainbow Six provides a lot more of it then the $2 pick six (even though the purist will argue that is is a sucker bet).


This decision is more of an attack on syndicates/big $ players. With the current pick 6 method, the $48 will rarely even have a chance of hitting the jackpot, while putting in $3000 to $12,000 plays have a very legitimate chance of bringing home the jackpot when it gets big.

As far as the financial ramifications for so cal racing, I think this decision will probably help, not hurt it. But we will see. The Rainbow Six generally gets very popular when the carryover get's big, regardless of whether there is any chance that day of there being a single ticket jackpot winner.

Honestly I think they should scrap the late pick 5 and offer both on different sets of races, but I think they would have to run 10 races to not impact the two pick 4's they have(jackpot pick six races 3-8 and regular pick six races 5 to 10). Even though both are pick six pools, I think they are largely different markets. The Jackpot Pick Six is more catered to the small, recreational player and even number and lottery players, the $2 Pick Six is more catered to the long time horse player who has been playing it for many years and is comfortable with the risk/reward.

[AndyC]

..... but there are a couple of aspects of the wager that make it tolerable. 1) The amount of money in the pools chasing the jackpot provides better value on more obvious combinations and of course if by miracle you are the only person to bring down the pool you hit the jackpot. It does happen fairly often, so that aspect cannot be dismissed.


The rational that there will be value in the obvious combinations is a poor reason to tolerate this bet. If, in fact, such value did exist it would be quickly diminished by players who watch payouts for values from betting patterns. There is no putting lipstick on this pig.




This decision is more of an attack on syndicates/big $ players. With the current pick 6 method, the $48 will rarely even have a chance of hitting the jackpot, while putting in $3000 to $12,000 plays have a very legitimate chance of bringing home the jackpot when it gets big.

I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.


Honestly I think they should scrap the late pick 5 and offer both on different sets of races, but I think they would have to run 10 races to not impact the two pick 4's they have(jackpot pick six races 3-8 and regular pick six races 5 to 10). Even though both are pick six pools, I think they are largely different markets. The Jackpot Pick Six is more catered to the small, recreational player and even number and lottery players, the $2 Pick Six is more catered to the long time horse player who has been playing it for many years and is comfortable with the risk/reward.

The 2 P-6 markets do have overlap but I agree they do draw primarily from different markets. The problem is that racetracks don't like tying up betting capital and reducing churn. They kind of have to go with one or the other.

[cj]

This is a terrible bet other than on mandatory payout days which often produce a positive expectation play, but even that is getting iffy. On the big payout days people are betting so much the edge is going away. On other days you're better off playing the Powerball.

[Poindexter]

As I said in my prior post, there is a good measuring stick to whether the bet is bad or good. The p3 parlay. If you are getting around that much back on a 20 cent jackpot pick six you are doing okay. There are rare instances when they will pay 2 or 3 times this amount, there are other times it will pay 60% of this amount. The fact that you can play 10 times the combinations for the same amount of money is a huge draw and benefit for the small player. Bottom line it is fun. Small players cannot beat this game, but they can scrap together $30 to $50 to put together a rainbow six play, have a legit shot at $2500 and who knows they might even think they have a shot at the jackpot(which they wont unless they are connecting longshots in just about every leg-in which case they will likely be donating).


The 2 P-6 markets do have overlap but I agree they do draw primarily from different markets. The problem is that racetracks don't like tying up betting capital and reducing churn. They kind of have to go with one or the other.

Well everything they do is counter to this. They offer pick 4's, pick 5's galore, they offer the low takeout on pick 5's and not on straight betting. Every host on every racing channel cannot stop talking about pick 4's and pick 5's and jackpot pick 6's. Somebody isn't getting this memo.


I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.


Have no idea what your point is or whether you are talking about the 20 jackpot bet or the $2.00 jackpot bet.

[castaway01]

As I said in my prior post, there is a good measuring stick to whether the bet is bad or good. The p3 parlay. If you are getting around that much back on a 20 cent jackpot pick six you are doing okay. There are rare instances when they will pay 2 or 3 times this amount, there are other times it will pay 60% of this amount. The fact that you can play 10 times the combinations for the same amount of money is a huge draw and benefit for the small player. Bottom line it is fun. Small players cannot beat this game, but they can scrap together $30 to $50 to put together a rainbow six play, have a legit shot at $2500 and who knows they might even think they have a shot at the jackpot(which they wont unless they are connecting longshots in just about every leg-in which case they will likely be donating).



Yes, it's "fun" like the lottery is fun---huge takeout, a tiny chance of winning something big. Still, that's no reason to defend it to the average fan. And your arguments about the Pick 3 parlay are not statistically accurate.

[Poindexter]

Yes, it's "fun" like the lottery is fun---huge takeout, a tiny chance of winning something big. Still, that's no reason to defend it to the average fan. And your arguments about the Pick 3 parlay are not statistically accurate.

Why would you consider the pick 3 parlay a poor gauge. A pick six basically is a pick 3 parlay, only it is takeout rather than 2 so it should pay better. Most days I look it is a fairly accurate representation of what the pick 6 will pay. Obviously in the jackpot pick six when the carryovers are small they will pay much worse.

I am not defending the jackpot pick 6. In my perfect world they just have a 20 cent pick six with a 12% takeout, a 20 cent super high 5 with a 12% takeout and 20 cent pick 4's and pick 5's with a 12 % takeout. That way small players could compete in these pools a lot better and stay in the game a lot longer. The jackpot aspect of the bet does nothing for me. The problem is that racetracks have experimented and since they are unwilling to budge on takeout and rebates, all they have is jackpot bets. It seems as if they create excitement in the industry. The jackpot pools at Gulfstream are huge when the jackpot pools get over 2 million dolllars.

The recreational bettor has no chance today. Throwing a half a million dollar carryover to entice a small player with very limited funds is just encouraging him to piss away $144 in a $2 pick six, instead of making $5 and $10 win bets. If you bet pick sixes and are highly capitalized, I get it, this sucks for you. The jackpot pick 6 in so cal is probably the best bet out there for the highly capitalized player(especially when there is both a carryover and a jackpot) The jackpot pick 6 is more of an entertainment bet for the recreational bettor that will lose his money anyhow. It is just a matter of how much and how fast. But imo the longevity of this player will typically be much longer with the rip off jackpot 20 cent pool, then it will with a $2 pick six no matter how much better the payoffs are in the $2 version. Like I said earlier do both.

[dilanesp]

The recreational player never has a chance except through luck.

But if racetracks can make more money structuring a bet that is attractive to them, I don't see the argument against it. Racetracks need more handle.

[SandyW]

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.
It becomes not a sucker bet as soon as you hit one of these rainbow 6's even if you are not the only winning ticket holder.
I'm looking forward to playing this bet daily.

[AndyC]

I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.


Have no idea what your point is or whether you are talking about the 20 jackpot bet or the $2.00 jackpot bet.

The entire premise of the Jackpot bets with single winners is incredibly skewed to Jackpots being won by the big players. It's one thing to compete with a big player to pick 6 winners but it is much harder to compete with big players to be a single winner. That's why the bet designed supposedly for the small player is just a gift for the large players.

[Poindexter]

The entire premise of the Jackpot bets with single winners is incredibly skewed to Jackpots being won by the big players. It's one thing to compete with a big player to pick 6 winners but it is much harder to compete with big players to be a single winner. That's why the bet designed supposedly for the small player is just a gift for the large players.

No arguments from me. However the advantage is a lot more pronounced on the current $2 jackpot pick 6 then it is on a Rainbow pick 6 that I imagine most syndicates will only play on a mandatory payout. So just by the fact most betting syndicates are not that involved probably means that some small players are likely pulling down some of the 20 cent rainbow sixes on the rare occasion that they a single ticket hits.

[jay68802]

The entire premise of the wager is that the track gets to keep charging take out on the whole pool including the carry over.

[Poindexter]

The entire premise of the wager is that the track gets to keep charging take out on the whole pool including the carry over.

How can they charge take out on the carryover? They charge takeout on the money bet that day. The carryover is free money that is given to anyone who is the only ticket with 6 winners, should that happen. The bet is a "ripoff" or "sucker bet" because a certain percentage of the pool is added to the next days carryover instead of being paid out(unless someone is the lone ticket with 6).

[turfnsport]

The jackpot bet is a high takeout churn killer. If you get the urge to play a jackpot bet there are better options, perhaps buying scratch off tickets or lighting your money on fire.

[JohnGalt1]

How often does the jackpot six pay 5 of 6?

Can you say never.

The traditional $1.00 or $2.00 pick six always pays 5.

Years ago Bay Meadows paid down to 4 of 6 if no one hit six. If it paid $9.00 for four and you had 5 horses in the two races you missed you collected $45.00. That's called churn.

[JohnGalt1]

It becomes not a sucker bet as soon as you hit one of these rainbow 6's even if you are not the only winning ticket holder.
I'm looking forward to playing this bet daily.


I did hit one, other than the Arlington $60 I mentioned.

The year Nyquist won the Florida Derby, I won $588. A single paid $11.00 and the deeper covered races had lower priced horses.

The only reason I even played it was I had 3 locks, My single, the all button in one race and Mohayman and Nyquist in the last. So looked at it as a pick 3.



What would it have paid if it was a traditional pick 6 with a traditional cost?

Who knows?

I was able to hit the all button because of the cost and wouldn't have played if it was $2.00.

The $588 did not change my life or add substantially to my bankroll, which is what a pick 5 or 6 should do.


Gulfstream does it right because they get the handle. I'm just disappointed there is one less traditional pick 6 to play.