G1 Arlington Million

[Lemon Drop Husker]

One of my favorite races of the year as it always seems to draw an interesting field of Americans and Euros on the soft stuff.


This year looks to be no different.


:1: Circus Couture: 100/1 just two back at Ascot, but certainly wasn't embarrassed in his two races at that meet. Suedois, who finished 3rd in his last would be a serious contender in here. 30/1 MLer isn't without a chance.


:2: Spring Quality: That was a pretty good field he beat in the Manhattan with Sadler's Joy and Hi Happy rounding out the Trifecta. He is definitely "in form" and has 6 wins in 11 career starts, with 9 exacta finishes. Can win on the front, and can come from well back. "Numbers" aren't great, but hard to discredit a horse that likes to win, and who has beaten good horses.


:3: Almanaar: Another winner rolling out of the Chad Brown barn comes in off back-to-back victories. Easily running at the best form of his career. He beat Beach Patrol two back, so has to be respected.


:4: Divisidero: Won his last at this very track against a decent field in a G3. An often competitor in American Graded Stakes turf races doesn't seem to have what it takes to win at this level. Exotics?



:5: Century Dream: Was more than competitive in his last two against some really damn good turf Euros at Ascot. 12/1 ML has to be a joke. Major contender that ships with one of the world's best jockeys in Buick.



:6: Catcho En Die: 83/1 two back in the Manhattan, and ran like he was 83/1. Won his last at 12 panels going gate to wire on this very surface, but the waters here are much much deeper. Difficult to see hitting the board.


:7: Twenty Four Seven: Wasn't all that competitive in the G3 prep for this race, and this field is tougher. Complete toss.

:8: Money Multiplier: The ROI on this horse is tough to like as he is always bet, but rarely wins. Undoubtedly a serious contender, but anything less than 8/1 is gonna be tough to swallow. Connections are superb, and thus why he is always overbet.


:9: Deuville: Solid Euro that finished 3rd in this very race last year. Hard to find much better connections than O'brien/Moore, and he comes in off of a good race. Has to be considered on any ticket you wager.

:10: Robert Bruce: This Chilean entry was undefeated before his last race, and wasn't embarrassed even though he finished 6th amid a troubled trip. Brown/Ortiz has to be noted. Serious contender.


:11: Oscar Performance: ML favorite is an all or nothing type sorts in which he has 7 wins in 12 starts with only 1 other board finish. This will be his 2nd start as a 4YO, and can scarily improve. He should be the rightful favorite, and could be tough to beat.

[GMB@BP]

2,4 are scratched

[Lemon Drop Husker]

2,4 are scratched


Thank you kind sir.


:2: is a massive scratch IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

of the foreign runners; :9: needs no writeup, but :1::5: = both of these really fit the foreign-shippers-stretching-out angle that I love. They generally run a more measured style over there, and they obviously have a good turf pool.
Great seeing a colt like the :5: CENTURY DREAM in particular, who has proven class, and he even has a failed 10f attempt at Longchamp this year facing warriors on heavy turf, and then you will hear experts asking "Oh but the question is will he get the distance?" :D. This guy will LOVE 10furlongs in this Arlington race, and could run in 12Furlong races with ease in the States.

Chad Brown has three in here that can hit the board. Oscar Performance will be tough for Lynch. DEUVILLE will be tough for O'brien , and then you try to get the :5: in there somewhere.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

of the foreign runners; :9: needs no writeup, but :1::5: = both of these really fit the foreign-shippers-stretching-out angle that I love. They generally run a more measured style over there, and they obviously have a good turf pool.
Great seeing a colt like the :5: CENTURY DREAM in particular, who has proven class, and he even has a failed 10f attempt at Longchamp this year facing warriors on heavy turf, and then you will hear experts asking "Oh but the question is will he get the distance?" :D. This guy will LOVE 10furlongs in this Arlington race, and could run in 12Furlong races with ease in the States.

Chad Brown has three in here that can hit the board. Oscar Performance will be tough for Lynch. DEUVILLE will be tough for O'brien , and then you try to get the :5: in there somewhere.


If I can get 8/1 or better on the :5:, I'm putting both fists through the window.

[linrom1]

of the foreign runners; :9: needs no writeup, but :1::5: = both of these really fit the foreign-shippers-stretching-out angle that I love. They generally run a more measured style over there, and they obviously have a good turf pool.
Great seeing a colt like the :5: CENTURY DREAM in particular, who has proven class, and he even has a failed 10f attempt at Longchamp this year facing warriors on heavy turf, and then you will hear experts asking "Oh but the question is will he get the distance?" :D. This guy will LOVE 10furlongs in this Arlington race, and could run in 12Furlong races with ease in the States.

Chad Brown has three in here that can hit the board. Oscar Performance will be tough for Lynch. DEUVILLE will be tough for O'brien , and then you try to get the :5: in there somewhere.


The thing that I don't like about CENTURY LINK is that all of his 7 wins came on non-firm going. And connections also seem to prefer to run him at a mile? His owners had little success running in US and the trainer ran only one horse in US Breeders Cup Mile on turf and finished dead last.

On foreign exchanges he is about 4th wagering choice.

I'll use him as a saver with ATHENA and SISTERCHARLIE.

[Robert Fischer]

The thing that I don't like about CENTURY LINK is that all of his 7 wins came on non-firm going. And connections also seem to prefer to run him at a mile? His owners had little success running in US and the trainer ran only one horse in US Breeders Cup Mile on turf and finished dead last.

On foreign exchanges he is about 4th wagering choice.

I'll use him as a saver with ATHENA and SISTERCHARLIE.

love to see the bolded. It's a red herring/misunderstood factor that adds value to these types.

The non-firm going stuff could be significant. Maybe the surface preference will hurt him today. Last 3 races were on 'good' turf and all three of those were strong enough to hit the board in the Arlington Million. However, I'm not an expert on going, and I haven't done any consideration of how non-firm those last three races were. You could have a point. :ThmbUp:

[soonboomer]

The thing that I don't like about CENTURY LINK is that all of his 7 wins came on non-firm going. And connections also seem to prefer to run him at a mile? His owners had little success running in US and the trainer ran only one horse in US Breeders Cup Mile on turf and finished dead last.

On foreign exchanges he is about 4th wagering choice.

I'll use him as a saver with ATHENA and SISTERCHARLIE.

I think I read that the surface was upgraded from yielding to good earlier this morning....might still have a little give to it at race time.

[Robert Fischer]

I think I read that the surface was upgraded from yielding to good earlier this morning....might still have a little give to it at race time.

I guess that means he should be comfortable with the turf going today.


Reading Linrom's post, I assumed that Arlington was 'firm'.

[Tom]

:8: 9-2
:10: 3-1
:3: 7-2

Box 'em

[Tom]

After watching some of the AP races today, forget my bets - that track is garbage. The results of the stakes races are laughable. This track has less class then EVD!

[Striker]

I’ll go with :3:Almanaar

DD :3:/:10:

[Tom]

Chad Brown takes 1-2-3 spots in Bev D.
This is so good for racing.:puke:

He had 4 horses -- what was his problem - he didn't take 1-2-3-4???

[PaceAdvantage]

What the hell...give me the :6:

[Tom]

The DRF Entries Product gives the :9: Beyers of 82-100-99 for its last three races.

But all three were overseas - where there are NO Beyers! :pound::pound::pound:

JC, is ANYONE in this game competent at all? :pound::pound::pound:

I won the Bev D - I'm buying a fishing pole.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:5::9:/:5::9::11:/All

[Robert Fischer]

:10: ROBERT BRUCE the Chilean wonder-horse to finish in the top three.

At least one of the Euros (:1:, :5:, or the possibly overlayed :9:) to finish in the top four.

Crazy Trifecta "reverse pyramid" and a bunch of annoying $4.40 supers to make up a double-key of the opinion.



$0.50 TRI 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
$0.50 TRI 1, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 10, 11
Trifecta Wager Total $35.00

...................................

$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9 =$4.40

$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9 =$4.40

$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9 =$4.40

$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$0.10 SU 1, 5, 9
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
$0.10 SU 10
$0.10 SU 3, 5, 8, 9, 11=$4.40

$39.60 SU total

74.60 Total total

[Tom]

:8: 9-2
:10: 3-1
:3: 7-2

Box 'em

Got the box.
And Chad got 1-2.

So, first 5 places in the Bev and Million go to one trainer.
Really nice for the game.

[Robert Fischer]

What the hell...give me the :6:

jinxed my dime super

may pay OK with both the :6: and :5: and only two chad browns


Got the box.
And Chad got 1-2.

So, first 5 places in the Bev and Million go to one trainer.
Really nice for the game.

I'm going to laugh when they run a 5-horse stakes in NY with 3 Chads and 2 Abreus. Then there'd be no need for inside info or betting the break. Just have the deposit go directly from the ADW to the owners and skip the betting. lol


Tough break for people who bet the :11: Oscar Performance. Didn't seem to have any plan. Just try to run 5 wide on the pace and prove you're a super-horse? Surprised Jose Ortiz seemed completely unaware of the break being near the turn or received crazy trainer instructions. He could have won wide on the pace today if he was the best horse in training. Maybe.


:6: moved up to third

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I think we can consider the Chilean horse a legit turf runner. :eek:

[Tom]

Tough break for people who bet the Oscar Performance.

I originally had the race 8-11-3, then I got thinking, Jose has been riding like crap lately and being outside, I thought he would get lost. So I went to the 10.
:jump::jump::jump:

[GMB@BP]

Feel for Chad Brown not getting the win with Analyze It, must have made the day a bit rougher.

[clicknow]

So, first 5 places in the Bev and Million go to one trainer.
Really nice for the game.

Between that and the bad racing at SAR so far, I think I might just buy the same fishing pole as you and take up a new hobby until January.

[biggestal99]

Chad Brown takes 1-2-3 spots in Bev D.
This is so good for racing.:puke:

He had 4 horses -- what was his problem - he didn't take 1-2-3-4???

What wrong with a trainer dominating a stakes race?

Everyone had a fair shot at winning. Brown had the best 3

Allan

[GMB@BP]

What wrong with a trainer dominating a stakes race?

Everyone had a fair shot at winning. Brown had the best 3

Allan

I agree, makes for great betting as well!

[Tom]

Dominating trainers make for small fields and non-competitive racing overall.

[GMB@BP]

Dominating trainers make for small fields and non-competitive racing overall.

stop making such a big deal, just send it in and pay your 18% takeout...cmon man. :p

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have a daughter who had twins last year and yesterday was their birthday. I had 2 bets in the Lure and the Million went 2-1-1-0 while drinking beer and playing with my grand children=bliss!