something's fishy

[how cliche]

rarely play anything but win or cold dubs or cold p3. played the first tri bet in ages sunday. out of curiosity i was examining payouts from del mar and found two interesting contests to contrast. i wanna fixate on payouts from dmr6 and 8 sunday. either they had the most and least efficient tri pools ever or i should get suspicious. every other payout is proportional to corresponding results and degree of difficulty. let's compare. what say you?

race 6: 12 horse field
race 6: 29-1w
race 6: 8-1p
race 6: 10-1s
race 6: 7/2f
race 6: exa 202
race 6: tri 697
race 6: spr 1160


race 8: 10 horse field
race 8: 21-1w
race 8: 3-1p
race 8: 9-1s
race 8: 8-1f
race 8: exa 113
race 8: tri 730
race 8: spr 680

[Redboard]

rarely play anything but win or cold dubs or cold p3. played the first tri bet in ages sunday. out of curiosity i was examining payouts from del mar and found two interesting contests to contrast. i wanna fixate on payouts from dmr6 and 8 sunday. either they had the most and least efficient tri pools ever or i should get suspicious. every other payout is proportional to corresponding results and degree of difficulty. let's compare. what say you?

race 6: 12 horse field
race 6: 29-1w
race 6: 8-1p
race 6: 10-1s
race 6: 7/2f
race 6: exa 202
race 6: tri 697
race 6: spr 1160


race 8: 10 horse field
race 8: 21-1w
race 8: 3-1p
race 8: 9-1s
race 8: 8-1f
race 8: exa 113
race 8: tri 730
race 8: spr 680

Looks like the race 8 tri paid more than it should have (21 x 3.1 x 9.7 = 592). It actually paid 1460, the number you have listed there is for the $0.50 bet.

The race 6 tri paid less than it should have (29.4 x 8.4 x 10.4 = 2568). It paid 1393, which is a little over half of what the math says but with the takeout of 24%, it’s not that out of line.

[thaskalos]

Looks like the race 8 tri paid more than it should have (21 x 3.1 x 9.7 = 592). It actually paid 1460, the number you have listed there is for the $0.50 bet.


By this formula...(21 × 3.1 × 9.7) should pay the same as (3.1 × 9.7 × 21).

So...does this seem to be a suitable calculation by which to determine trifecta payoffs?

[how cliche]

is there such a formula to figure tri probables at all? if ever i had a way to steal money from the pools i'd target tri, super and hi-five pools. those players are left guessing how much payouts are every time anyway. right? sometimes they're pleasantly surprised and other times they're bitterly disappointed.

back to the example,
every number is higher in r6 except payout.

field size 12 to 10
winner 29 to 21
second 8 to 3
third 10 to 9
only fourth is lower 3.5 to 8(doesn't affect the argument)
exacta 202 to 113
super 1160 to 680

i didn't include quinella, but that's higher too 222 to 73

is it not possible somebody stole money from the tri pool in race 6. if you take in these easily reviewable factors, the $0.50 tri "should" pay between 1260 and 1310. those players are missing 560 min.

[Redboard]

By this formula...(21 × 3.1 × 9.7) should pay the same as (3.1 × 9.7 × 21).

So...does this seem to be a suitable calculation by which to determine trifecta payoffs?

Formula's more accurate for the pick 3 odds, since the toteboard odds are for the win bet, not the odds of a horse coming in second or third. I just use it as a "ballpark" estimate.

Obviously, one would think that 21 x 3.1 x 9.7 would pay more that 3.1 x 9.7 x 21 , or 9.7 x 3.1 x 21, because most smart trifecta players don't box but would put long shots (maybe even the all button) in third place, so that would be hit more often.

Let's just say that there was a race of 11 starters all the exact odds of 10-1(no takeout). the odds of any particular trifecta order would be. 11 x 10 x 9 or 990(which would be a little less than my formula of 10x10x10). right? So should my formula be (21 +1) x (3.1) x (9.7 -1) ?

[AndyC]

.......back to the example,
every number is higher in r6 except payout.

field size 12 to 10
winner 29 to 21
second 8 to 3
third 10 to 9
only fourth is lower 3.5 to 8(doesn't affect the argument)
exacta 202 to 113
super 1160 to 680

i didn't include quinella, but that's higher too 222 to 73

is it not possible somebody stole money from the tri pool in race 6. if you take in these easily reviewable factors, the $0.50 tri "should" pay between 1260 and 1310. those players are missing 560 min.

It's always possible but not probable. If you consider that there are 1320 possible winning combinations in a 12 horse field trifecta it really doesn't take much to skew a payoff.