Lemon Drop Husker
07-21-2018, 08:34 AM
The Saratoga and Del Mar meets roll into opening weekend, and they are both off to banging starts with their normal large pools and bettors delight payouts.
And now that Del Mar can handle 14 on their turf course, we get wicked tough races like today's G2 San Clemente featuring 13 3YO fillies going a mile. Finding a winner here could be a day-maker, and hitting an exotic may well amount to a week or month-maker.
:1: Rockin Ready: One of the few closers in this race could well get a pace meltdown in here in a race absolutely loaded with speed. However, the Del Mar turf hasn't exactly been kind to those needing to make up a ton of ground the first two days of the meet. Her maiden score two back puts her right in the thick of things here if she can work out a trip from the rail. Her 5 for 5 in the exacta career record is hard not to notice, and has to at least be considered for exotics if not even on top.
:2: Ms Bad Behavior: Six for eight in the exacta in her career thus far, including a runner-up finish last out in the G3 Provencia. She has been on the bench since that April race and thus will be firing fresh. She is the ML 9/2 favorite, and definitely has to be considered on any ticket played in this race today. While she can carry some front-running wire to wire speed, she doesn't need to be in the mix of things to come out on top; and she may well end up mid-pack with the speed signed on in here.
:3: Flammenta: Arguably the deepest closer in the bunch that can already be considered a Santa Anita Hill specialist as her last two races have come down the hill resulting in two of her three career wins. Prat has opted elsewhere, so that has to be strongly factored into her chances today. If you are into the whole "horses that run together" theory, then the :1::3::4::8::9: and :13: may be the only horses you want to consider in constructing 4 to 5 figure exotics payouts.
:4: Miss Siena: Have to notice that this will be Mike Smith's only mount of the day as he has only been on a single mount the first 2 days of the meet, and looks to carry through with that M.O. today and tomorrow as well. Her virgin American voyage certainly didn't go as planned as she really wasn't much of a factor in the G2 Honeymoon. Likely suspect we'll get a much better effort from her today, but will be looking elsewhere as the Smith factor will definitely dilute her price.
:5: Ahimsa: The ML of 30/1 is a tad bit ridiculous on this on as her two grass races squarely put her right in the mix of things here. A key factor, however, is Roman in the irons as opposed to Nakatani, Prat, or Smith. When all is said and done though, they may well just look to push her to the front and try to wall everybody off. Has to be considered, especially at what could be a massive price.
:6: Dulce Rider: Her maiden win last out was undoubtedly a massive turnaround in form. Still not sold she can run with these, and likely from too far back with better closers in the field.
:8: Animosity: Another in a long line of pace factors shortens up today. Her runner-up finish last out in the G2 Honeymoon should squarely put her in the thick of things, but I see too much speed in here for her and see no way she can wire this field looking at her three career starts. Looking elsewhere.
:9: West Palm Beach: This Scat Daddy sired gal certainly has some late punch, and her win two back over a mile fits squarely into being a major contender. A must include in all exotics tickets IMO.
:10: War Heroine: Looking at just her two turf races, and she is undoubtedly a major contender that should no doubt be involved on the front end. Her win over :2:Ms Bad Behaviour 3 back has to be noted as well. Obvious concern has to be if she gets too involved in order to last the stretch out to 8 panels.
:11: Pursuing The Dream: Yep, you guessed it, another pace presence. While she has ran decently enough since crossing the pond in her 3 career States starts, she does seem a bit short of many others in here. Wouldn't be surprised if she ran well, but others look more intriguing.
:12: Lexington Grace: Tough read. Some things to like, some things to hate. She does look to be tractable enough though and fit in wherever in this field and still have a shot at hitting the board. Numbers show her as a contender, but after 16 career starts thus far into her career, how much improvement can we look for her in this race?
:13: Ms Peintour: She'll need to work out a trip from out here, but she may well be able to slide in behind a number of front-runners and not lose much ground. She'll be a price, and isn't without a chance of at least spicing up exotics.
:14: Ollie's Candy: Her first career turf race in which they would undoubtedly love to have blacktype on both dirt and turf for this young filly. Nakatani getting the call is very encouraging, but think she has little choice but to try and get to the front and outrun everybody. She may well be good enough to do just that. Undefeated, she has to be respected as a serious contender.
SUMMARY: Looking squarely at the :9::10: right now, but this is one tough hombre of a race that sits right in the middle of all the late 'Picks' tickets.
And now that Del Mar can handle 14 on their turf course, we get wicked tough races like today's G2 San Clemente featuring 13 3YO fillies going a mile. Finding a winner here could be a day-maker, and hitting an exotic may well amount to a week or month-maker.
:1: Rockin Ready: One of the few closers in this race could well get a pace meltdown in here in a race absolutely loaded with speed. However, the Del Mar turf hasn't exactly been kind to those needing to make up a ton of ground the first two days of the meet. Her maiden score two back puts her right in the thick of things here if she can work out a trip from the rail. Her 5 for 5 in the exacta career record is hard not to notice, and has to at least be considered for exotics if not even on top.
:2: Ms Bad Behavior: Six for eight in the exacta in her career thus far, including a runner-up finish last out in the G3 Provencia. She has been on the bench since that April race and thus will be firing fresh. She is the ML 9/2 favorite, and definitely has to be considered on any ticket played in this race today. While she can carry some front-running wire to wire speed, she doesn't need to be in the mix of things to come out on top; and she may well end up mid-pack with the speed signed on in here.
:3: Flammenta: Arguably the deepest closer in the bunch that can already be considered a Santa Anita Hill specialist as her last two races have come down the hill resulting in two of her three career wins. Prat has opted elsewhere, so that has to be strongly factored into her chances today. If you are into the whole "horses that run together" theory, then the :1::3::4::8::9: and :13: may be the only horses you want to consider in constructing 4 to 5 figure exotics payouts.
:4: Miss Siena: Have to notice that this will be Mike Smith's only mount of the day as he has only been on a single mount the first 2 days of the meet, and looks to carry through with that M.O. today and tomorrow as well. Her virgin American voyage certainly didn't go as planned as she really wasn't much of a factor in the G2 Honeymoon. Likely suspect we'll get a much better effort from her today, but will be looking elsewhere as the Smith factor will definitely dilute her price.
:5: Ahimsa: The ML of 30/1 is a tad bit ridiculous on this on as her two grass races squarely put her right in the mix of things here. A key factor, however, is Roman in the irons as opposed to Nakatani, Prat, or Smith. When all is said and done though, they may well just look to push her to the front and try to wall everybody off. Has to be considered, especially at what could be a massive price.
:6: Dulce Rider: Her maiden win last out was undoubtedly a massive turnaround in form. Still not sold she can run with these, and likely from too far back with better closers in the field.
:8: Animosity: Another in a long line of pace factors shortens up today. Her runner-up finish last out in the G2 Honeymoon should squarely put her in the thick of things, but I see too much speed in here for her and see no way she can wire this field looking at her three career starts. Looking elsewhere.
:9: West Palm Beach: This Scat Daddy sired gal certainly has some late punch, and her win two back over a mile fits squarely into being a major contender. A must include in all exotics tickets IMO.
:10: War Heroine: Looking at just her two turf races, and she is undoubtedly a major contender that should no doubt be involved on the front end. Her win over :2:Ms Bad Behaviour 3 back has to be noted as well. Obvious concern has to be if she gets too involved in order to last the stretch out to 8 panels.
:11: Pursuing The Dream: Yep, you guessed it, another pace presence. While she has ran decently enough since crossing the pond in her 3 career States starts, she does seem a bit short of many others in here. Wouldn't be surprised if she ran well, but others look more intriguing.
:12: Lexington Grace: Tough read. Some things to like, some things to hate. She does look to be tractable enough though and fit in wherever in this field and still have a shot at hitting the board. Numbers show her as a contender, but after 16 career starts thus far into her career, how much improvement can we look for her in this race?
:13: Ms Peintour: She'll need to work out a trip from out here, but she may well be able to slide in behind a number of front-runners and not lose much ground. She'll be a price, and isn't without a chance of at least spicing up exotics.
:14: Ollie's Candy: Her first career turf race in which they would undoubtedly love to have blacktype on both dirt and turf for this young filly. Nakatani getting the call is very encouraging, but think she has little choice but to try and get to the front and outrun everybody. She may well be good enough to do just that. Undefeated, she has to be respected as a serious contender.
SUMMARY: Looking squarely at the :9::10: right now, but this is one tough hombre of a race that sits right in the middle of all the late 'Picks' tickets.