July 8 Belmont Victory Ride Stakes...damn...

[MadVindication]

It's a tough one. Free pp on TFUS. :ThmbUp:

Deserving fave in the 2-1 :5: Mia Mischief, for speed. But not without competition.

First glance best value is :8: Spectator at 5-1, SA Oaks runner up; sprint, route, she's ITM but looks like 6.5 is her niche. And :10: Classy Act for 6-1. Biggest threats to the :5:.

Curiosity in :3: Seperationofpowers at 4-1. Class dropper with Jose Ortiz for jock, she'll take money. There's a 246 day lay off but her workouts look good and at her level the time off may not matter. Do you think she'll run well? A ML underlay or overlay? What odds you give her?

May consider :7: Take Charge Paula as a tri/super bomber.

[GMB@BP]

I don't know much about Nevin, numbers are good, but DAmato is about as good as there is on the west coast, not sure its a positive trainer move.

Feels like the chalk is going to be very tough.

[Tom]

Bet whoever is the chalk....1 minute into the race.

FREE PPs for a Belmont race - I can't afford them.:rolleyes:

[Afleet]

good luck to Dixie Serenade

[jay68802]

I think you have to give the edge to the :3: here. Can improve as a lightly raced 3 yr old and her breeding really suits the distance. Would love to see 5-2 on this one, but is owned by Klaravich and if they are betting, will be around 8 or 9-5.

[Immortal6]

With Jay on the :3:, out of Candy Ride, working lights out for Chad Brown. 5/2 would be a gift. :5: looks tough on paper but looks to be hard pressed by the :4: and :10:. I tend to shy away from horses shipping in from California but the :8: looks classy enough and shows ability to come from off the pace.

:3::8: ex box.

[jay68802]

With Jay on the :3:, out of Candy Ride, working lights out for Chad Brown. 5/2 would be a gift. :5: looks tough on paper but looks to be hard pressed by the :4: and :10:. I tend to shy away from horses shipping in from California but the :8: looks classy enough and shows ability to come from off the pace.

:3::8: ex box.

A fun one.

[GMB@BP]

I like Classy Tune given the odds, the chalk is going to be very tough but price wise at 4/5 cant use her.

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks chalky...maybe Rosario takes the #7 back today and hopes for some pace fallout. He can get a share if things come apart a bit late.

[Afleet]

good luck to Dixie Serenade

holy phuk!

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice one Afleet!!!
45-1....hope you got some

[Afleet]

Nice one Afleet!!!
45-1....hope you got some

I wasnt playing today, but I own 3 foals by the sire and it could help me down the road!!!

[cj]

Winner actually looked pretty good on our stuff, was one of the free races of the day.

https://image.ibb.co/bKYixT/VR.png

[GMB@BP]

That hurt, do all the dirty work to win the battle but lost the war.

[Afleet]

holy phuk!

I didn't mean to cuss-apologize. I'm going to the farm to see the sire and my foals in September and seeing the PA derby. I got carried away!

[cj]

That hurt, do all the dirty work to win the battle but lost the war.

Yep, probably best though maybe the Chad horse is right there if she breaks.

[JeremyJet]

Winner actually looked pretty good on our stuff, was one of the free races of the day.

https://image.ibb.co/bKYixT/VR.png

C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?

[cj]

C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?

The Power Picks are selected by an algorithm that I didn't create. I do use them as a starting point. For this race, my bets actually focused around the 10. I did ok here, but would have done better if the 10 wins. I'm not going to bother posting screen shots of winning tickets because I'm not prepared to post them for all the losing bets I make each day as well.

[JeremyJet]

The Power Picks are selected by an algorithm that I didn't create. I do use them as a starting point. For this race, my bets actually focused around the 10. I did ok here, but would have done better if the 10 wins. I'm not going to bother posting screen shots of winning tickets because I'm not prepared to post them for all the losing bets I make each day as well.

Does your methodology create an odds line?

[cj]

Does your methodology create an odds line?

I've done that in the past but after doing it so long, I have a pretty good idea in my head of what odds I'll accept so I don't spend a lot of time on it. It is pretty much second nature at this point.

[JeremyJet]

I've done that in the past but after doing it so long, I have a pretty good idea in my head of what odds I'll accept so I don't spend a lot of time on it. It is pretty much second nature at this point.

I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.

What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?

[cj]

I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.

What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?

The product isn't software, it is past performances just like BRIS or DRF or Equibase sells. I think offering odds like you mention is a no win situation personally. With software, maybe that is different. There users can create their own factors and have a say in how the odds are formulated.

[GMB@BP]

I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.

What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?

It would be pretty easy to build a value odds line using the condensed file that they provide, export that to text and import into excel...a few "If" statements and you could write an odds program.

Obviously a much bigger project but DRF does sell all the timeform data, one could easily build a program based on the data. I know that is not something for the casual player but could prove useful.

[MadVindication]

Usually shy away from closers in sprints but the TFUS did show a lot of early speed horses so should've considered her. I didn't end up betting this race thankfully. Was a really fun one to ponder tho.

Pace figures are pretty good. :ThmbUp:

[TrackingTVG]

Not to be an ass, but I just cant figure out why this horse was 47/1.

There was an overabundance worth of early speed, and she was one of the few who on paper wouldn't be looking for the lead.

Is this just an example of an overreliance on speed figures, and people not handicapping the actual race?

15/1 ML was spot on odds for this horse... 47/1 was crazy for a horse who is consistently in the mix every race.

the 10 ran a hell of a ran also.


I had the best hit of my life on this pick 4:

7- 1,2,4,5,8
8- 1,6
9- 3,4,5,6,10
10- 2,4-8,11,12

Can't help but wonder what could have been if the 28/1 holds on in the opening leg.

And I posted 6 on my twitter account ahead of time (@TBredMonitor) so I'm not past posting or anything.

[Tom]

C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?

When the PP says FAST, the best late is almost an automatic bet.
This was a good example of that.