2018-19 NBA

[cj]

Paul George staying in OKC the first domino to drop. Ariza leaving Houston is gonna hurt IMO. Jordan to Dallas...meh.

[lansdale]

Paul George staying in OKC the first domino to drop. Ariza leaving Houston is gonna hurt IMO. Jordan to Dallas...meh.

Below, I moved my calls from the Lebron thread -- PG was alrady leaning, so not much of a surprise there. Since, LBJ opted out, no chance of a sign-and-trade at HOU, and it sounds like Harden didn't want him, regardless. Will be tougher for them sans Ariza. Since it appears that LBJ is waiting to see where Kawhi ends up, everything seems to hinge now on whether/when the Spurs can make a deal. Sounds like Lakers already rejected their offer -- asking too much. Sixers have been offering Saric and Covington, but balked at including Fultz, whose shooting has supposedly improved big time. So possibly nothing happending there. Spurs really in a terrible bind -- KL doesn't want to play in SA, but they're going to get seriously burned if they trade him. Not impossible everyone stands pat.

Old 06-22-2018, 10:01 PM #116
lansdale
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As some have said here, very doubtful that KL ends up in L.A. - Spurs don't want to help a division rival -- and it's even more doubtful therefore that Lebron shows up w/o KL there. But PG to L.A. -- maybe. My guesses for where these three FAs end up.

KL
1. Philadelphia
2. San Antonio

LBJ
1. Cleveland
2. Houston

PG
1.OKC
2. L.A.

Sixers have a ton of cap room, so could accomodate either KL or LBJ. But LBJ only has a good chance to beat GSW at HOU. Will everyone take a cut to fit LBJ under the cap there -- sounds like yes -- only question is whether he's tired of moving around at this age. Spurs still begging Kawhi to stay -- will it work? PG sounds happy at OKC -- 70-30 he remains there. Hopefully they can dump Melo.
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[lansdale]

Surprised that LBJ going somewhere he's guaranteed not to win it. Maybe looking to set-up post-career business moves. If the Lakers do end up coming through with a package for Kawhi, still believe this team will be too gutted to contend. Should be interesting, though.

[Inner Dirt]

Surprised that LBJ going somewhere he's guaranteed not to win it. Maybe looking to set-up post-career business moves. If the Lakers do end up coming through with a package for Kawhi, still believe this team will be too gutted to contend. Should be interesting, though.


I agree, also Lebron will turn 34 at the end of the year, while not slowing down yet he is at the age where athletes can start aging in dog years at any time. It isn't like he has a lot of time for the Lakers to build a team around him. Right now the supporting cast on the Lakers isn't even close to as good as he had in Cleveland. Even if you add Kawhi, last I checked Golden State still had 4 all-stars that are 30 years old or under.

[cj]

I agree, also Lebron will turn 34 at the end of the year, while not slowing down yet he is at the age where athletes can start aging in dog years at any time. It isn't like he has a lot of time for the Lakers to build a team around him. Right now the supporting cast on the Lakers isn't even close to as good as he had in Cleveland. Even if you add Kawhi, last I checked Golden State still had 4 all-stars that are 30 years old or under.

LeBron played great last year, but there are definitely signs he is slowing down via the eye test. Maybe he just wanted to have late May and June off this year. :)

[ronsmac]

LeBron played great last year, but there are definitely signs he is slowing down via the eye test. Maybe he just wanted to have late May and June off this year. :)Now that I'm a laker fan, why did we sign lance Stephenson? Especially with his history with LeBron.

[Inner Dirt]

Now that I'm a laker fan, why did we sign lance Stephenson? Especially with his history with LeBron.


I am a Laker hater and have 2 good reasons to be one. I will enjoy the drama now that they have Lebron and hope they don't assemble a good supporting cast around him. I can't wait to see what happens the first time Lebron gets in Lonzo's face for his brick throwing. I am wondering if Magic Johnson and Lebron will get along, stay tuned.

[ronsmac]

I am a Laker hater and have 2 good reasons to be one. I will enjoy the drama now that they have Lebron and hope they don't assemble a good supporting cast around him. I can't wait to see what happens the first time Lebron gets in Lonzo's face for his brick throwing. I am wondering if Magic Johnson and Lebron will get along, stay tuned.
I stopped being a fan of individual teams about 30 yrs ago but the one team I hated for 15 years is the San Antonio Spurs. there will be a lot of drama in La this year which will make watching the NBA tons of fun.

[Inner Dirt]

I stopped being a fan of individual teams about 30 yrs ago but the one team I hated for 15 years is the San Antonio Spurs. there will be a lot of drama in La this year which will make watching the NBA tons of fun.


I followed sports at a very young age, I listened to all the Laker games on radio and watched on TV when they were on since I was 5. At the age of 8 my dad took me to see the Lakers play the San Diego Rockets in San Diego in 1969. At an early shoot around I tried to get Laker players to autograph a ball I brought in, they all ignored me like I was not there. Elvin Hayes of the Rockets came over and signed my ball. I hated the Lakers ever since. The other reason was when I ignored my hate and bet on them to win the NBA championship in 1991, they won the first game and then lost 4 straight to the Bulls. F**k the Lakers.

[PhantomOnTour]

Am I the only one who's sick and tired of all this LeBron stuff? ESPN is having an orgy over it. The morning show with Greenberg and Jalen has devoted about 80% of its show to this.
How about the World Cup? Or Wimbledon? Or baseball?

[ronsmac]

I followed sports at a very young age, I listened to all the Laker games on radio and watched on TV when they were on since I was 5. At the age of 8 my dad took me to see the Lakers play the San Diego Rockets in San Diego in 1969. At an early shoot around I tried to get Laker players to autograph a ball I brought in, they all ignored me like I was not there. Elvin Hayes of the Rockets came over and signed my ball. I hated the Lakers ever since. The other reason was when I ignored my hate and bet on them to win the NBA championship in 1991, they won the first game and then lost 4 straight to the Bulls. F**k the Lakers.I have a very similar story about Eddie Murray of the Baltimore Orioles. I rooted against him for the remainder of his career after he refused to sign his autograph for me when I was a kid.

[ronsmac]

Am I the only one who's sick and tired of all this LeBron stuff? ESPN is having an orgy over it. The morning show with Greenberg and Jalen has devoted about 80% of its show to this.
How about the World Cup? Or Wimbledon? Or baseball?
80% is a disgusting amount of time. It should have been 95% at minimum.

[PhantomOnTour]

80% is a disgusting amount of time. It should have been 95% at minimum.

Haaaa!
Lakers won't win a title with LeBron

[PhantomOnTour]

Let me be the first to congratulate LeBron and the Lakers on their runner up finish in the Western Conf next year 😂

[Robert Fischer]

I have a very similar story about Eddie Murray of the Baltimore Orioles. I rooted against him for the remainder of his career after he refused to sign his autograph for me when I was a kid.

:D
I once waited in a line to get an autograph from Eddie Murray after a game. 1987? Ed-die signed several autographs, i had advanced to about 3rd in line and then he hopped into a limo with a girlfriend and rolled up the windows as he left the scene.



LeBron to Lakers? I like it. I hope they are somewhat competitive. One rumor has Kawhi Leonard joining him after 1 year. Some risk as to whether they will field a good team. He's able to perform, but it comes down to whether he wants to work and how his body holds up under the work and the drugs. Has to stay motivated. This season should be somewhat easy with the big move, but that could fade if they are a non-contender.

[cj]

Now that I'm a laker fan, why did we sign lance Stephenson? Especially with his history with LeBron.

No idea, and JaVale too!

[cj]

I followed sports at a very young age, I listened to all the Laker games on radio and watched on TV when they were on since I was 5. At the age of 8 my dad took me to see the Lakers play the San Diego Rockets in San Diego in 1969. At an early shoot around I tried to get Laker players to autograph a ball I brought in, they all ignored me like I was not there. Elvin Hayes of the Rockets came over and signed my ball. I hated the Lakers ever since. The other reason was when I ignored my hate and bet on them to win the NBA championship in 1991, they won the first game and then lost 4 straight to the Bulls. F**k the Lakers.

The Big E was my favorite player as a kid, mostly of course because I was a Bullets fan. That is a really cool story, thanks.

[cj]

Cousins to Warriors. NBA now a laughing stock.

[elysiantraveller]

Cousins to Warriors. NBA now a laughing stock.

Anyone else surprised by some of the other Laker moves?

Seems like they traded some assets for a hodgepodge that doesn't look competitive at all.

This off-season has been very annoying as no team seems to have really improved except the Warriors. LeBron aside of course...

Cousins does have a caveat with the injury but... smdh.

[ronsmac]

The Big E was my favorite player as a kid, mostly of course because I was a Bullets fan. That is a really cool story, thanks.The Big E helped break my heart when they beat Seattle for the title. The SuperSonics were my favorite team as a kid because of the cool name, the cool uniforms, and all the cool nicknames of their players. They had Downtown Freddie Brown, Slick Watts, Gus Williams the wizard, Marvin Webster the human eraser, Dennis Johnson aka DJ, and Paul Silas the bricklayer. I lost 10 fifty cent bets trying to beat the Bullets.

[ronsmac]

Anyone else surprised by some of the other Laker moves?

Seems like they traded some assets for a hodgepodge that doesn't look competitive at all.

This off-season has been very annoying as no team seems to have really improved except the Warriors. LeBron aside of course...

Cousins does have a caveat with the injury but... smdh.I don't know what they're doing.

[cj]

The Big E helped break my heart when they beat Seattle for the title. The SuperSonics were my favorite team as a kid because of the cool name, the cool uniforms, and all the cool nicknames of their players. They had Downtown Freddie Brown, Slick Watts, Gus Williams the wizard, Marvin Webster the human eraser, Dennis Johnson aka DJ, and Paul Silas the bricklayer. I lost 10 fifty cent bets trying to beat the Bullets.

You left out Jack Sikma! He was probably their best player when they won the title, him or DJ.

[cj]

I don't know what they're doing.

I think they are just filling out the roster with guys they can dump next year and go after two more max guys.

[lansdale]

Lakers now one of the eight teams in the west that look to win 50-52 games. Strange that they got LBJ and Rondo, who'll take valuable minutes away from their two best prospects, Zo and Ingram. L.A. now out for Kawhi. But Spurs really need to move him or they get screwed.

Think Pels believe that Cousins, who had major surgery after Achilles blowout, wouldn't recover his top form. Regardless, he won't play until January and then, who knows how he'll be. Easy title for GSW, so another boring year in the NBA.
Wonder if Silver will take any action to change East-West imbalance -- west now has almost every player to make an NBA 1st team in the past four years.

[ronsmac]

You left out Jack Sikma! He was probably their best player when they won the title, him or DJ.

I loved Sikma, I don't remember if he had a nickname though.

[ronsmac]

I think they are just filling out the roster with guys they can dump next year and go after two more max guys.Probably but LeBron is no spring chicken.

[cj]

Probably but LeBron is no spring chicken.

I agree, but most seem to be overlooking that fact. I thought it showed in his play this year on the defensive end.

[cj]

Lakers now one of the eight teams in the west that look to win 50-52 games. Strange that they got LBJ and Rondo, who'll take valuable minutes away from their two best prospects, Zo and Ingram. L.A. now out for Kawhi. But Spurs really need to move him or they get screwed.

Think Pels believe that Cousins, who had major surgery after Achilles blowout, wouldn't recover his top form. Regardless, he won't play until January and then, who knows how he'll be. Easy title for GSW, so another boring year in the NBA.
Wonder if Silver will take any action to change East-West imbalance -- west now has almost every player to make an NBA 1st team in the past four years.

You know, sometimes it is best just to let a guy like Leonard walk than it is to trade him and take guys back that you don't really want but get stuck with. Salary cap space is quite valuable in the NBA and you give that up if you trade.

Also, the Lakers would have to give up quite a bit to sign him next year if they don't get him via trade. You can't just sign a max contract guy unless you have room under the cap. So adding Leornard will mean they have to fill the rest of the roster with rookies and vet minimum guys. The Spurs really have no incentive to help the Lakers IMO.

[lansdale]

You know, sometimes it is best just to let a guy like Leonard walk than it is to trade him and take guys back that you don't really want but get stuck with. Salary cap space is quite valuable in the NBA and you give that up if you trade.

Also, the Lakers would have to give up quite a bit to sign him next year if they don't get him via trade. You can't just sign a max contract guy unless you have room under the cap. So adding Leornard will mean they have to fill the rest of the roster with rookies and vet minimum guys. The Spurs really have no incentive to help the Lakers IMO.

Well, it's a poker game at this point re Kawhi, but it's really not about money for any of the principals. Kawhi has said he'll sit this year if they don't deal him and obviously walk next season. You may say, let him walk, you get the cap space but no amount of cap space is going to get a player as good as Kawhi -- thye're already tied up in long term deals. At the high end of the talent spectrum there are no replacements, or often any available players even close to as good. Cap space is often like having a billion dollars in the desert but no water available -- you're still going to die. This is starting to become a norm in the NBA and is kind of like a simpler version of a typical movie business problem -- your star bails just before you're about to shoot, and you try to replace him -- but there's only three guys in the world that you can use and none are available. So the movie shuts down. But in the sports world, you can't shut down the team -- you accept that your team will just be worse without that player. The Spurs have said they're not willing to do this -- they don't want to rebuild, they want good players in any deal to stay in the playoffs. So they either take Sixers best offer or they call Kahwi's bluff and see if he really sits it out. I think the odds are ca. 60/40, former, latter.

[cj]

While it is true that salary cap room can be fool's gold, it is also true that not having any when you aren't a top team is also not a good spot to be in. A lot of teams are in that spot this year because of foolish spending a couple of years ago. The Thunder have gotten themselves into a tough spot with too much spending that netted them a four seed. At some point all teams are just better off blowing it up. With Kawhi gone, the Spurs are probably close to that level.

[lansdale]

While it is true that salary cap room can be fool's gold, it is also true that not having any when you aren't a top team is also not a good spot to be in. A lot of teams are in that spot this year because of foolish spending a couple of years ago. The Thunder have gotten themselves into a tough spot with too much spending that netted them a four seed. At some point all teams are just better off blowing it up. With Kawhi gone, the Spurs are probably close to that level.

Sure, I think in general it's always it's better to have as much cap room as you need, and it's bad, but I think unavoidable to end up overpaying players like OKC and even moreso the CAVS have. But we're just talking about this specific situation. The Spurs have already said they don't want to blow it up and rebuild if Kawhi goes, they want to acquire good enough players to keep them in the playoffs. So if they believe that Kawhi really will sit it out, they need to see what they can get for him. If they think he'll eventually come around and play this year, they'll stand pat. I think he's not bluffing. Seems like I've posted a lot about this subject, but I really like Kawhi as a player and I'm also a fan of the team and am sorry to see the way this has all developed.

[Inner Dirt]

While it is true that salary cap room can be fool's gold, it is also true that not having any when you aren't a top team is also not a good spot to be in. A lot of teams are in that spot this year because of foolish spending a couple of years ago. The Thunder have gotten themselves into a tough spot with too much spending that netted them a four seed. At some point all teams are just better off blowing it up. With Kawhi gone, the Spurs are probably close to that level.


That and isn't Popovich in his early 70's? Probably time for him to step down.

[cj]

That and isn't Popovich in his early 70's? Probably time for him to step down.

Parker has left and now they let Kyle Anderson go without matching his contract. Feels like tank mode is coming really soon.

[PhantomOnTour]

This rookie Ayton for the Suns looks like he's going to be a serious ball player. I'm all for the return of the big man

[Valuist]

Can anyone explain why the Bulls would extend LaVine 4 years at $78 million? What has he done to warrant anywhere near that kind of money?

[cj]

Can anyone explain why the Bulls would extend LaVine 4 years at $78 million? What has he done to warrant anywhere near that kind of money?

He is young and has shown a lot of promise at times, but that seems too much especially given his history of injuries.

[lansdale]

Parker has left and now they let Kyle Anderson go without matching his contract. Feels like tank mode is coming really soon.

Anderson was highly mediocre 8/5/3 and Parker nearly worthless at this point -- two players whose value is easily replaced. If they force Kawhi to play (and apparently NBA teams can sue for breach of contract, if he doesn't) they'll win 55 games. If they take Sixers' deal, they probably win ca. 50 -- i.e., a little better than last year. Really no need to tank -- at least yet.

There's much talk of Kawhi damaging his brand in this situation, but so is the Spurs organization in the eyes of NBA players -- it's always been viewed in a positive light and now the halo effect will be gone and it may be more difficult to get FAs to want to go there. A quick deal is in everyone's interest, and I have a feeling the Spurs will end up going for a a sweetened Sixer deal fairly soon.

[cj]

Anderson was highly mediocre 8/5/3 and Parker nearly worthless at this point -- two players whose value is easily replaced. If they force Kawhi to play (and apparently NBA teams can sue for breach of contract, if he doesn't) they'll win 55 games. If they take Sixers' deal, they probably win ca. 50 -- i.e., a little better than last year. Really no need to tank -- at least yet.

There's much talk of Kawhi damaging his brand in this situation, but so is the Spurs organization in the eyes of NBA players -- it's always been viewed in a positive light and now the halo effect will be gone and it may be more difficult to get FAs to want to go there. A quick deal is in everyone's interest, and I have a feeling the Spurs will end up going for a a sweetened Sixer deal fairly soon.


I think you underrate Anderson. He's a really good wing defender and was reasonably priced. He's also still young and just entering his prime.

I totally agree about Parker. Can't blame him for taking the money after taking paycuts in his prime.

[Valuist]

Anderson was highly mediocre 8/5/3 and Parker nearly worthless at this point -- two players whose value is easily replaced. If they force Kawhi to play (and apparently NBA teams can sue for breach of contract, if he doesn't) they'll win 55 games. If they take Sixers' deal, they probably win ca. 50 -- i.e., a little better than last year. Really no need to tank -- at least yet.

There's much talk of Kawhi damaging his brand in this situation, but so is the Spurs organization in the eyes of NBA players -- it's always been viewed in a positive light and now the halo effect will be gone and it may be more difficult to get FAs to want to go there. A quick deal is in everyone's interest, and I have a feeling the Spurs will end up going for a a sweetened Sixer deal fairly soon.

I really question the assertion that the Spurs "brand" is being damaged by this. You have a player who is clearly being a baby; a well paid baby at that. The Spurs should not trade him and force him to play. Call his bluff. 20 years of positivity doesn't get cancelled out by one malcontent.

[cj]

I really question the assertion that the Spurs "brand" is being damaged by this. You have a player who is clearly being a baby; a well paid baby at that. The Spurs should not trade him and force him to play. Call his bluff. 20 years of positivity doesn't get cancelled out by one malcontent.

I've been saying the same, call his bluff. Basically nobody think Leonard is in the right here. His own teammates called him out last year, well respected teammates at that. Something isn't right with Leonard, either mentally, physically, or both.

[lansdale]

I think you underrate Anderson. He's a really good wing defender and was reasonably priced. He's also still young and just entering his prime.

I totally agree about Parker. Can't blame him for taking the money after taking paycuts in his prime.

Re Anderson, I think it would be more accurate to say he's a better than average player, but still not that difficult to replace that level of talent. My guess as to why they didn't match -- although's he's a good defender, the Spurs are now imbalanced toward one-way D guys, and they need more scoring, esp. 3-shooters. The recent re-acquisition of Belinelli, a rare move for them, seems to point in this direction.

The Spurs have cycled through a number of players similar to K. Anderson in the last few years, that they let go as FAs or waived ---- none have become stars elsewhere. I think they're generally right in believing that if their organization can't get more out of them, no one else will be able to.

[lansdale]

Given Kawhi's legal situation, I think it's pretty clear that he is bluffing (a bad decision, but possibly not one made by him) and it's 100% that he'll be playing somewhere in the NBA next year. But, objectively, if the Spurs don't trade him, how good is that outcome for them? He'll be motivated to play well, to demonstrate his value, and they'll win ca. 55 games, but you can't build a future around him and you'll get nothing in return when he walks next year. This is actually a much better outcome for Kawhi than the Spurs.

However, if they deal him now, they'll likely be able to make the playoffs with whoever they get, which they claim is their goal, and the whole melodrama will be over. One way or another the Spurs have to accept that Kawhi is no longer a part of their future.

[lansdale]

Kawhi Leonard appears to have been dealt to the Toronto Raptors in a multi-player deal also involving Demar DeRozan and Danny Green. Seems like a lose-lose deal for both sides with Kawhi no more than a rental for the Raps, but Spurs undoubtedly will be better than last year.

[lansdale]

A little late, since the NBA season got an early start last week, but....

NBA title: Warriors (in perpetuity)
MVP: Kawhi Leonard
Rookie of the Year: DeAndre Ayton

[lansdale]

I realize the NBA isn't on many people's radar until at least the playoffs, but today's multiplayer deal between T'wolves and Sixers, sending J. Butler to the Sixers for Saric, Covington, etc. seems like one that can shake up the east, and maybe the Finals. Chemistry between the laid-back Embiic and the intense Butler maybe an obstacle, but Sixers would seem to be the beasts of the east now, if they can work things out.

[ronsmac]

I realize the NBA isn't on many people's radar until at least the playoffs, but today's multiplayer deal between T'wolves and Sixers, sending J. Butler to the Sixers for Saric, Covington, etc. seems like one that can shake up the east, and maybe the Finals. Chemistry between the laid-back Embiic and the intense Butler maybe an obstacle, but Sixers would seem to be the beasts of the east now, if they can work things out.
Toronto has been killing.

[lansdale]

Toronto has been killing.

Yeah, and until this deal,I thought Raps would win the east. If Butler can get along with Embiid and Simmons though, imho the Sixers have the best starting five in the east. Even though Toronto has a better bench, in the post-season, the starters will be playing major minutes. Just have to wait to see how things develop, since the season just started.

[Valuist]

Boston might win the most games during the season in the East, but with Butler integrated into the fold, the Sixers are going to go far in the playoffs, IMO. I'd like to see a Warriors/Sixers Finals.

[lansdale]

Agree with Nate that Sixers now in need of 3-pt. shooting -- after losing Belinelli and Ilyasova last year and now Saric and Roco, they won't be able to spread the floor as well with this current group. But I have a feeling this won't be all that difficult a challenge.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-good-is-the-sixers-brand-new-big-three/

[lansdale]

Boston might win the most games during the season in the East, but with Butler integrated into the fold, the Sixers are going to go far in the playoffs, IMO. I'd like to see a Warriors/Sixers Finals.

Boston now seems a half-notch or so behind both Raps and Sixers imho, but with Bucks also moving into contention, very difficult to sort out the mix. I really don't believe Celts have one top-ten player -- Kyrie may be ca. 12-15, but his lack of D and low hoops IQ I believe will limit their chances in post-season. I would be happy to see a Raps/Sixers Conf. Final, which should lead, either way, to a more competitive championship than we've been seeing.

[Valuist]

Philly needs to swallow their pride and admit the Fultz selection was a mistake. Get him off the court and put Reddick back on the court would seem to be the logical solution.

[cj]

Philly needs to swallow their pride and admit the Fultz selection was a mistake. Get him off the court and put Reddick back on the court would seem to be the logical solution.

Imagine this team with Tatum instead of Fultz...downright scary.

[lansdale]

Philly needs to swallow their pride and admit the Fultz selection was a mistake. Get him off the court and put Reddick back on the court would seem to be the logical solution.

There are a lot of voices calling for Fultz to get the hook, which I understand, but Sixers have invested a lot in him, as a #1 pick, so I think they're going to continue to give him minutes for at least another month or so before making a decision. A few things -- he's only 20, and he's only played 25 games in college and 28 games in the NBA, so I think it's difficult to tell how good he might be. The dramatic decline in his game is from his .413 3-pt. shooting in college to .305 now -- is it better NBA D, his changed mechanics, or a 'the yips', as his former shooting coach thought. Who knows? Regardless, Reddick won't get more minutes -- he's already playing 30 min. per game which is what he has averaged for about the last six years -- at age 34, he's also limited. BTW, his shooting has also been horrible so far this year, though should improve.

[Valuist]

There are a lot of voices calling for Fultz to get the hook, which I understand, but Sixers have invested a lot in him, as a #1 pick, so I think they're going to continue to give him minutes for at least another month or so before making a decision. A few things -- he's only 20, and he's only played 25 games in college and 28 games in the NBA, so I think it's difficult to tell how good he might be. The dramatic decline in his game is from his .413 3-pt. shooting in college to .305 now -- is it better NBA D, his changed mechanics, or a 'the yips', as his former shooting coach thought. Who knows? Regardless, Reddick won't get more minutes -- he's already playing 30 min. per game which is what he has averaged for about the last six years -- at age 34, he's also limited. BTW, his shooting has also been horrible so far this year, though should improve.

The 3 point decline could be some of the factors you mentioned but it is an extra 3 feet further. That's a huge difference. This guy was only a 65% free throw shooter in college. It's one thing if you are a 7 footer; he basically took advantage of some poor defense in the Pac 12 and got paid big. Hard to believe seeing guys like Tatum and Mitchell that the Sixers would take Fultz.

[cj]

The 3 point decline could be some of the factors you mentioned but it is an extra 3 feet further. That's a huge difference. This guy was only a 65% free throw shooter in college. It's one thing if you are a 7 footer; he basically took advantage of some poor defense in the Pac 12 and got paid big. Hard to believe seeing guys like Tatum and Mitchell that the Sixers would take Fultz.

This guy has some sort of mental block since he returned from injury. He has Barkley's golfing disease.

https://deadspin.com/markelle-fultz-shooting-form-update-hes-pump-faking-fr-1830396811

[lansdale]

Elton Brand and Brett Brown made statements about Fultz' status today, in the wake of the Butler trade, to the effect that nothing would change re the team's support for him -- does this mean his minutes won't be cut for awhile -- we'll see. Given the reality, they're now shorthanded enough that they almost have no choice but to keep playing him.

The strangest thing about his game is not that his shooting is off -- you might expect that of an rookie coming into the league -- but the discrepancy in his college stats between his great 3 pt. shooting vs. terrible free-throw shooting. I've never seen this phenomenon in all the time I've been a fan of the game, and agree that there must be a psychological factor involved. Hope he can shake it. If not, there's no way he can survive the rigors of an NBA season.

[lansdale]

An afterthought -- interesting to compare RW first year in the league with what Fultz is experiencing now. Like Fultz, he was a great college player, and was the #4 first round draft pick in 2008. Like Fultz, he was 20 years old. How did his shooting stats compare with what Fultz has done so far?

Fultz

FG% - .422
3pt. - .305
2 pt. - .438
ORTG - 100
DRTG- 110

RW

FG% - .398
3 pt. - .271
2 pt. - .415
ORTG - 99
DRTG - 111

Amazingly similar. But RW was allowed to play 32 minutes a game because OKC was a lottery team which had no choice but to use him. Even the next year he was improved, but still not the RW he now know. Not saying that Fultz will become another RW, but probably a good idea to give him more time.

[cj]

An afterthought -- interesting to compare RW first year in the league with what Fultz is experiencing now. Like Fultz, he was a great college player, and was the #4 first round draft pick in 2008. Like Fultz, he was 20 years old. How did his shooting stats compare with what Fultz has done so far?

Fultz

FG% - .422
3pt. - .305
2 pt. - .438
ORTG - 100
DRTG- 110

RW

FG% - .398
3 pt. - .271
2 pt. - .415
ORTG - 99
DRTG - 111

Amazingly similar. But RW was allowed to play 32 minutes a game because OKC was a lottery team which had no choice but to use him. Even the next year he was improved, but still not the RW he now know. Not saying that Fultz will become another RW, but probably a good idea to give him more time.

Russell Westbrook was never a good shooter, even in college, and still isn't. Fultz was better. Something is wrong mentally with him it seems.

Also, Russ was on a lottery team for one year. His second year, same as Fultz is in this year, was a team that gave the eventual champion Lakers all they wanted in the first round. A buzzer beating tip in by Pau Gasol saved them from a G7. Obviously Fultz didn't play a lot in his first year but there is something to be said for being on the roster and being coached by pros for a full season.

This much I can say from watching Fultz so far. He is no Westbrook and he never will be. He just doesn't have that kind of explosiveness. The Sixers blew it by not drafting Tatum. Maybe they'll be able to overcome that mistake and win a title or two but they'd be a potential dynasty if they had made the right choice.

[Robert Fischer]

Fultz is not a lottery pick, he's a guy who has to humble himself and play a role in the NBA, or go to China and be an all-star type.


Philly picked a 'trap' and not a 'trip'.

... They didn't trade Saric. Good.

Westbrook has 2 things over this guy Fultz; electric talent, and relentless willpower.

You can watch the college film of Fultz, and most of his highlights are little-man-dunks, or beating a scrub(who would never make the NBA) off the dribble.

I didn't watch much college basketball that season, but I'm sure he was valuable and fun to watch, - but you have to be able to look at that as a professional talent scout - and question whether those advantages will translate to the NBA.

I'm glad there are bad draft picks and bad trades. Just like I'm glad there are bad favorites.

He's got to be a humble hustling role player. He's not a guy you give a sneaker to. Picking him in the lottery or even the first round pretty much dooms him to being handicapped by his ego and his false sense of a star role entitlement.

[cj]

Fultz is not a lottery pick, he's a guy who has to humble himself and play a role in the NBA, or go to China and be an all-star type.


Philly picked a 'trap' and not a 'trip'.

... They didn't trade Saric. Good.

Westbrook has 2 things over this guy Fultz; electric talent, and relentless willpower.

You can watch the college film of Fultz, and most of his highlights are little-man-dunks, or beating a scrub(who would never make the NBA) off the dribble.

I didn't watch much college basketball that season, but I'm sure he was valuable and fun to watch, - but you have to be able to look at that as a professional talent scout - and question whether those advantages will translate to the NBA.

I'm glad there are bad draft picks and bad trades. Just like I'm glad there are bad favorites.

He's got to be a humble hustling role player. He's not a guy you give a sneaker to. Picking him in the lottery or even the first round pretty much dooms him to being handicapped by his ego and his false sense of a star role entitlement.

They did trade Saric.

[Robert Fischer]

They did trade Saric.

OUCH

[Robert Fischer]

Jimmy Butler has a better brand, and much much better Defense.

They can also claim a "Big-3".

I guess it actually helps the 76ers business model.

[lansdale]

Russell Westbrook was never a good shooter, even in college, and still isn't. Fultz was better. Something is wrong mentally with him it seems.

Also, Russ was on a lottery team for one year. His second year, same as Fultz is in this year, was a team that gave the eventual champion Lakers all they wanted in the first round. A buzzer beating tip in by Pau Gasol saved them from a G7. Obviously Fultz didn't play a lot in his first year but there is something to be said for being on the roster and being coached by pros for a full season.

This much I can say from watching Fultz so far. He is no Westbrook and he never will be. He just doesn't have that kind of explosiveness. The Sixers blew it by not drafting Tatum. Maybe they'll be able to overcome that mistake and win a title or two but they'd be a potential dynasty if they had made the right choice.

I think everybody agrees that something is wrong w/Fultz vs. his level of play in college and nobody has the answer to his problem at the moment. The point I was making with the RW comparison was fairly mundane -- that the rookie year of most players, even many of the greatest, are usually unimpressive and unrepresentative of their later careers -- I could just as easily have used Harden, Curry, or dozens of other players as examples. All of these players improved by huge leaps after an inauspicious beginning. As you point out, by the end of his second year, RW and Durant were challenging the Lakers in the playoffs, and two years later they were in the championship. But, unlike Fultz, RW initially had the benefit of full-time play on what was then a bad team, which allowed him to develop in a relatively unpressured environment.

Also, the idea that players have to somehow live up to their draft-pick level and that teams know what they're doing in the draft is idiotic. Is Sam Bowie supposed to apologize for the rest of his life for being picked ahead of Michael Jordan? It should be obvious by now, that truly great players aside, no one, not even the teams who are spending money on them, can predict how college players are going to pan out in the NBA. Donovan Mitchell was drafted in the #13 spot last year -- you think the GMs that passed on him are simply morons -- no, that's just the reality of the situation. And it's obvious now that the pressure of being the #1 pick probably didn't help someone with Fultz' issues.

Going forward, the Sixers are committed to giving Fultz minutes for what seems like a couple more months. Regardless of how he does, they're still going to win ca. 55 games and go deep into the playoffs. With three great players already, though, they don't need Fultz to be a star -- they can win it with role players in the 2 and 4 slots and an improved bench, at this point. If, in a few months, he could give them 17 pts. and 4 assists, I think they're set. But, again, a long way to go still.

[Robert Fischer]

This guy Brown, coaching the Sixers... Can he coach??

spent 30 seconds on him, and he's a former Spurs assistant that's a good start...

With this more athletic lineup, I'd like to see what they do on defense and in transition.

I'm interested enough to try to catch them on TV soon :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Watching hoops in detail for the first time since the 90's,

there's obviously the move to efficient play that features the 3-point shot,

but I also see that they've green-lighted moves that used to be considered 'traveling'.


There was a rule change in 2009, but players are allowed to carry the ball(as they were in the 90's, then gather the ball near the end of a step or jump-stop, land that step and have two more steps). Giannis, LeBron, Harden stand out at first glance. I'm sure it's widespread.

[cj]

Watching hoops in detail for the first time since the 90's,

there's obviously the move to efficient play that features the 3-point shot,

but I also see that they've green-lighted moves that used to be considered 'traveling'.


There was a rule change in 2009, but players are allowed to carry the ball(as they were in the 90's, then gather the ball near the end of a step or jump-stop, land that step and have two more steps). Giannis, LeBron, Harden stand out at first glance. I'm sure it's widespread.

They also get away with a lot since they have legalized "the gather", basically allowing guys to shuffle in any direction as part of catching the ball, and afterwards. That used to always be traveling.

[Robert Fischer]

They also get away with a lot since they have legalized "the gather", basically allowing guys to shuffle in any direction as part of catching the ball, and afterwards. That used to always be traveling.

Yea, 'the gather' is the main thing.

I was surprised to see a FIBA video that outlined new international interpretation of allowing generous 'gathers' on the run and on spin-moves.

It reminds me a bit of a game we played in gym with volleyball type balls and there were no traveling rules per se, just a 'one bounce' rule.

Hakeem used to stretch the rules (although by much less) by coming to a legal jump-stop just as he received the ball in the post. Gave him the ability to start a fake before he received/gathered and then have his step and a half or whatever. Can imagine him doing some of these in today's rules. Hard to top an athlete like a Giannis or a LeBron.

Harden has it down where he basically gathers with one hand while he doesn't emphasize a two hand gather until a beat later...

Top defensive teams today will have to answer.

[lansdale]

Bumping this thread for return of Kawhi vs. Spurs for first time tonight -- should be pretty good game. Toronto has a good shot at Finals and Spurs rounding into form after a shaky start -- young players shaping up. Spurs -1.

Also almost mid-season. Many NBA teams in transition, much seeming parity. Possible vulnerability of GSW creating more intereest in this season than expected, at least for this fan.

MVP race: fairly wide-opne, but Harden, Durant, Giannis, Kawhi seem most likely at this point. AD would be there, except for a non-contending team.

[lansdale]

Bumping this thread for return of Kawhi vs. Spurs for first time tonight -- should be pretty good game. Toronto has a good shot at Finals and Spurs rounding into form after a shaky start -- young players shaping up. Spurs -1.

Also almost mid-season. Many NBA teams in transition, much seeming parity. Possible vulnerability of GSW creating more intereest in this season than expected, at least for this fan.

MVP race: fairly wide-opne, but Harden, Durant, Giannis, Kawhi seem most likely at this point. AD would be there, except for a non-contending team.

Apologies for touting this blowout -- game to watch was obviously Rockets/GSW. Playoffs gonna be good.

[lansdale]

Still difficult to see anyone beating GSW, but wondering how good Giannis might really be--seems like an absolute force of nature. If there's any justice he should be named MVP. I remember R. Fischer first touting him a few years back.

Looks like Luka Doncic will take Rookie award -- still think Ayton is the more valuable player. We'll see.

Interesting wagerng option for post-season -- N. Silver is making both Raptors and Bucks ca. 5-1 to win title, but they're 10-1 on most books.

[cj]

Still difficult to see anyone beating GSW, but wondering how good Giannis might really be--seems like an absolute force of nature. If there's any justice he should be named MVP. I remember R. Fischer first touting him a few years back.

Looks like Luka Doncic will take Rookie award -- still think Ayton is the more valuable player. We'll see.

Interesting wagerng option for post-season -- N. Silver is making both Raptors and Bucks ca. 5-1 to win title, but they're 10-1 on most books.

Giannis is a stone cold lock for MVP. Not sure Harden doesn't deserve it again but since I hate how he plays I'm ok with it.

Luka will probably win, but Tre Young probably would if Luka hadn't been annointed back in November. Young has really had the better season and actually plays most of the games. I wasn't impressed much with Ayton but I haven't watched him lately. Thunder finished with PHO early on and they obviously don't get much air time since they stink.

Warriors are a lock too.

[lansdale]

Giannis is a stone cold lock for MVP. Not sure Harden doesn't deserve it again but since I hate how he plays I'm ok with it.

Luka will probably win, but Tre Young probably would if Luka hadn't been annointed back in November. Young has really had the better season and actually plays most of the games. I wasn't impressed much with Ayton but I haven't watched him lately. Thunder finished with PHO early on and they obviously don't get much air time since they stink.

Warriors are a lock too.

Generally agree and wish this all didn't look so predictable again. Guessing that factor combined with the absence of LBJ, who was in the Finals for an amazing eight years in a row, will tank those ratings.

Re Giannis though, he has both a small PER edge and very large WS 48 edge over Harden, the Bucks beat the Rockers decisively in both their games, and they'll end the season with a better record. I don't think Harden's scoring can overcome all that. And he's only 24 -- just entering his prime years.

[Valuist]

For whatever reason, my interest heading into this year's NBA playoffs is the lowest its been in years. Am I the only one?

[Jeff P]

Yahoo Sports | Chris Haynes | April 16, 2019
Sources: Warriors center DeMarcus Cousins expected to miss remainder of postseason:
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-warriors-center-de-marcus-cousins-expected-to-miss-remainder-of-postseason-134734955.html

OAKLAND, Calif. — Golden State Warriors center DeMarcus Cousins is expected to miss the remainder of the postseason with a significant left quadriceps injury, but there’s faint optimism that he could possibly return for the NBA Finals, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

Cousins, 28, will undergo an MRI on Tuesday morning, which should reveal if the Finals are a realistic target for the four-time All-Star, sources said.

But the Warriors, sources said, are mentally preparing for the worst: a torn quad diagnosis and a postseason run devoid of Cousins.

--and:
But the Warriors also have other issues.

The defending champs blew a 31-point, third-quarter lead and relinquished — for the moment — home-court advantage after losing 135-131. Now the series is even heading to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Thursday.


-jp

.

[cj]

For whatever reason, my interest heading into this year's NBA playoffs is the lowest its been in years. Am I the only one?

Nah, still comes from Durant basically ruining the NBA by taking paycuts to join an already championship caliber team. Even without Cousins it probably won't matter. They signed Bogut towards the end of the year and he is still better than what they had last year in the middle.

[JustRalph]

Playoffs from mid April to mid June.

Gimme a break........

They idolize Harden here in Houston. A little too much .....

[Vinnie]

Fear the Beard! He is a train wreck on the defensive end with that "Matador Defense" he employs every night. Couple that with essentially taking up virtually every second spare a couple on the shot clock on each offensive possession. When interviewed, many legends said that they simply couldn't play with him.

[lansdale]

Yahoo Sports | Chris Haynes | April 16, 2019
Sources: Warriors center DeMarcus Cousins expected to miss remainder of postseason:
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-warriors-center-de-marcus-cousins-expected-to-miss-remainder-of-postseason-134734955.html



--and:



-jp

.

Although GSW stlll in a strong position, this does seem to make things more interesting. A couple of days after I mentioned the discrepancy between the Vegas line and Nate's projections, in this thread, the Vegas line adjusted to Nate's as it sometimes does. And after the Cousins injury, the Vegas line predictably shifted again, so the odds to win the title are now 4-1 and 15/2 on Bucks and Raptors, respectively (down from 10-1 on both last week). But Nate, who had had GSW at 4/5, now has them at 7/5. This leaves ca. 60% worth of probability between (presumably) Bucks and Raptors, although Nate making both 4-1 (w/respect to other possible opponents).

It seems to me that all GSW action hinges on Curry's health -- even if he's not seriously injured, just missing crucial parts of one or two games could still cost them the title. And with the decline of D. Green, on both ends of the court, and a weaker bench, this isn't the same team that dominated the Cavs the past two years. Bogut is a smart and a good passer, but at 35, also a step slower -- I don't think his return is a major factor. Interesting to see how they look the next couple of games, but thinking there could be value here.

[Jeff P]

Imo, there were several times in game 2 when Bogut looked completely gassed/out of breath (compared to the other players) after running up and down the floor at speed. Based on that, I have doubts about the number of quality minutes he can give them.

Imo, KD appears different (so far) in this series than what I'm used to seeing. Haven't seen that many times where he gets the ball in a half court offense and creates his own shot off the dribble and shoots a three. One of three from behind the arc (so far) in this series. Not sure if that's a result of Beverley's defense or if he's being used differently (or both.)

Game 3 tonight in LA. (Should be interesting.)


-jp

.

[Robert Fischer]

For whatever reason, my interest heading into this year's NBA playoffs is the lowest its been in years. Am I the only one?

For betting purposes, capitalize on that.

The NBA needs Giannis to advance. The NBA needs the New England Celtics to advance... ;):ThmbUp:

not necessarily tonight or the very next game, but pick your spots and use their business model to your advantage.

[lansdale]

Imo, there were several times in game 2 when Bogut looked completely gassed/out of breath (compared to the other players) after running up and down the floor at speed. Based on that, I have doubts about the number of quality minutes he can give them.

Imo, KD appears different (so far) in this series than what I'm used to seeing. Haven't seen that many times where he gets the ball in a half court offense and creates his own shot off the dribble and shoots a three. One of three from behind the arc (so far) in this series. Not sure if that's a result of Beverley's defense or if he's being used differently (or both.)

Game 3 tonight in LA. (Should be interesting.)


-jp

.

Didn't seen it, but Durant had a big game in GSW's win tonight, so I guess he solved whatever the problem was with Beverly -- although the much smaller Tony Allen used to hamper him in a similar way back in the day. Durant is a great player and certainly capable of creating his own shot, but he's not a great crunch-time decision-maker, which is why Curry is so important for them. They need SC's playmaking more than ever since opposing defenses can now sag off Draymond Green.

[lansdale]

For betting purposes, capitalize on that.

The NBA needs Giannis to advance. The NBA needs the New England Celtics to advance... ;):ThmbUp:

not necessarily tonight or the very next game, but pick your spots and use their business model to your advantage.

I'm familiar with your approach to the NBA, RF, but do you really think the league has total control over the game? ;-). Don't you think it's the superstars who now have taken over the post-season -- Durant, Kawhi, Kyrie (leaving Cleveland, and probably Boston), CP3, Cousins (pre-injury). Playoff ratings are down 15-30%, likely due to the dominance of GSW and absence of LBJ -- don't you think they would change this if they could?

[Robert Fischer]

I'm familiar with your approach to the NBA, RF, but do you really think the league has total control over the game? ;-). Don't you think it's the superstars who now have taken over the post-season -- Durant, Kawhi, Kyrie (leaving Cleveland, and probably Boston), CP3, Cousins (pre-injury). Playoff ratings are down 15-30%, likely due to the dominance of GSW and absence of LBJ -- don't you think they would change this if they could?

The players play the game. It's mostly (and some would argue 'all') the players. :ThmbUp:

I believe that the gambling industry/players occasionally has an interest, and I believe that the league occasionally has an interest. The league trumps the gambling interest when they can.

I look for plays where there is an underdog (which isn't always the line underdog, although the vast majority) where the league has an interest in the underdog, and the action comes in heavy for the attractive line on the superficial likely winner, and the line does not adjust. I've been lucky, whether that's a small sample coincidence or whatever.

Yea, the players and the agents and the shoe companies and the league and gambling rackets all vie for power.

LeBron has been such a focus, and the Golden State Warriors have built the great team... It's tough when a LeBron misses the playoffs. He'll be back if his body can hold up. For an aging star, he's really maintained his fitness impressively, but he must remain healthy and get some help.

A dude like Giannis who can gather the rock and triple-jump out of the picture is amazing to watch. He has the deal with Nike, "the greek freak" shoe which is a great product. Not getting any deals on the point spread thus far.

[lansdale]

The players play the game. It's mostly (and some would argue 'all') the players. :ThmbUp:

I believe that the gambling industry/players occasionally has an interest, and I believe that the league occasionally has an interest. The league trumps the gambling interest when they can.

I look for plays where there is an underdog (which isn't always the line underdog, although the vast majority) where the league has an interest in the underdog, and the action comes in heavy for the attractive line on the superficial likely winner, and the line does not adjust. I've been lucky, whether that's a small sample coincidence or whatever.

Yea, the players and the agents and the shoe companies and the league and gambling rackets all vie for power.

LeBron has been such a focus, and the Golden State Warriors have built the great team... It's tough when a LeBron misses the playoffs. He'll be back if his body can hold up. For an aging star, he's really maintained his fitness impressively, but he must remain healthy and get some help.

A dude like Giannis who can gather the rock and triple-jump out of the picture is amazing to watch. He has the deal with Nike, "the greek freak" shoe which is a great product. Not getting any deals on the point spread thus far.

So you believe that not only the league, but also the players, their agents, gamblers, and even the shoe companies are fixing games? Is there a new Tim Donaghy out there? I've questioned NBA playoff officiating from time to time (and we now know Donaghy's role in the notorious 2002 Kings/Lakers series) but I think you've kind of gone off the deep end here. Any suspicious calls we can check out?

[Robert Fischer]

So you believe that not only the league, but also the players, their agents, gamblers, and even the shoe companies are fixing games? Is there a new Tim Donaghy out there? I've questioned NBA playoff officiating from time to time (and we now know Donaghy's role in the notorious 2002 Kings/Lakers series) but I think you've kind of gone off the deep end here. Any suspicious calls we can check out?

No, of course not.

Sarcasm is difficult to convey on the internet, and I apologize. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

for fun, and to get the gray horses out of my brain-fog and into view...


Utah -2 vs Hou


yea, i went 17-7 the time i did NBA picks here when a poster named 'Stillriledup' was off to a good start, but don't bet this, this is just a brain-fog warmup

models:
contrarianism -Houston is the fun team. They are up 2-0 in the series and everyone is betting.

line movement -Opened a very seductive '-3'. Yes, the line has been moved to '-2', but that does little to even out the action. No, this is not some make-or-break landslide public crush for the gambling racket, and they can take this loss, but nobody loves taking losses.

league - The league doesn't really care much whether this series gets swept. Logical to see a Golden State vs. Houston matchup in round 2. There is some mild interest in extending the series; the Asian-market for the Rockets, the Jazz market, keeping a general pace w/ the Golden State series, etc... but similar to the other models - there's not an extreme push.

I'll take the Jazz -2 here. If I'm right, the Jazz will take this game...

Speaking of 'gaming the system', - it's great to watch Harden stretch the traveling rule with his gathers and his amazing step-back-3. He is one of the most skilled and intelligent players in the league. He's like a kung-fu master. In the first 2 games this series he's shot an amazing 10/23 from 3-pt range.

[Robert Fischer]

Utah -2 vs Hou


Can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink.

Utah refused to win that game.

You can have the calls go your way, You can have a mega-usage guy like Harden have an 'off' night, but if you can't score, take bad shots, and the other team's scrubs happen to hit enough clutch shots, all the 'push' in the world isn't going to always carry you.

None of the lines for today's game jump off the screen. Boston may sweep Indiana, but the betting models aren't there. If I see another interesting line these playoffs, I'll post.

[lansdale]

for fun, and to get the gray horses out of my brain-fog and into view...


Utah -2 vs Hou


yea, i went 17-7 the time i did NBA picks here when a poster named 'Stillriledup' was off to a good start, but don't bet this, this is just a brain-fog warmup

models:
contrarianism -Houston is the fun team. They are up 2-0 in the series and everyone is betting.

line movement -Opened a very seductive '-3'. Yes, the line has been moved to '-2', but that does little to even out the action. No, this is not some make-or-break landslide public crush for the gambling racket, and they can take this loss, but nobody loves taking losses.

league - The league doesn't really care much whether this series gets swept. Logical to see a Golden State vs. Houston matchup in round 2. There is some mild interest in extending the series; the Asian-market for the Rockets, the Jazz market, keeping a general pace w/ the Golden State series, etc... but similar to the other models - there's not an extreme push.

I'll take the Jazz -2 here. If I'm right, the Jazz will take this game...

Speaking of 'gaming the system', - it's great to watch Harden stretch the traveling rule with his gathers and his amazing step-back-3. He is one of the most skilled and intelligent players in the league. He's like a kung-fu master. In the first 2 games this series he's shot an amazing 10/23 from 3-pt range.

Hi RF,

Not trying to make too much out of this, but after saying above that you were just joking about outside influence on the NBA, here you're again talking about what the league cares about and whether there might be an interest in extending a series. How can a series be extended if there is no outside influence on the games?

Cheers,

lansdale

[Robert Fischer]

Hi RF,

Not trying to make too much out of this, but after saying above that you were just joking about outside influence on the NBA, here you're again talking about what the league cares about and whether there might be an interest in extending a series. How can a series be extended if there is no outside influence on the games?

Cheers,

lansdale


If I see another interesting line these playoffs, I'll post.:ThmbUp:

[lansdale]

:ThmbUp:

Cool.

[lansdale]

Imo, there were several times in game 2 when Bogut looked completely gassed/out of breath (compared to the other players) after running up and down the floor at speed. Based on that, I have doubts about the number of quality minutes he can give them.

Imo, KD appears different (so far) in this series than what I'm used to seeing. Haven't seen that many times where he gets the ball in a half court offense and creates his own shot off the dribble and shoots a three. One of three from behind the arc (so far) in this series. Not sure if that's a result of Beverley's defense or if he's being used differently (or both.)

Game 3 tonight in LA. (Should be interesting.)


-jp

.

Last night's game further evidence that GSW is declining somewhat. Bench only had 17 pts. -- team looking old and tired. Kerr playing a shortened rotation appears to be taking it out of the starters, but he may not have a choice.

[Jeff P]

Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams honestly explain why guarding Kevin Durant was impossible:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/04/kevin-durant-nba-clippers-warriors-patrick-beverley-lou-williams

Williams: Like sometimes, you come across special people and it doesn’t matter what you send to them. There’s no scheme. There’s no defense, there’s no nothing that you can do with special people. He’s one of them. And he showed it tonight. He put them guys on his shoulders.

And even the game he came out, he was, like, “I’m Kevin Durant. Y’all know who I am.” That’s like a bold statement to make when you’re about to go see some guys that’s extremely competitive. And he came out that game, and he said, “I can really shoot over these guys,” and he did it. So it wasn’t lack of effort on our part.

He’s an all-world professional, and he proved himself. He proved exactly who people think he is, who he think he is himself, and he did it. And you tip your hat off to a guy like that.


Really enjoyed the comments made by Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams after game 6 last night.

Watch (listen) to the video. Tone doesn't come across the same way if you merely read the article. :headbanger:



-jp

.

[lansdale]

Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams honestly explain why guarding Kevin Durant was impossible:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/04/kevin-durant-nba-clippers-warriors-patrick-beverley-lou-williams




Really enjoyed the comments made by Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams after game 6 last night.

Watch (listen) to the video. Tone doesn't come across the same way if you merely read the article. :headbanger:



-jp

.

Whatever problems Durant was having w/Beverly in that one game, it's clear he solved them quickly enough to carry them through that series, as he may have to throughout the post-season. Difficult even for opponents not to be in awe of his shot-making ability -- maybe only MJ his equal in hitting impossible-looking shots.

GSW was luckly to escape with the win in Game 1 -- everyone except Durant looks slow.

[lamboguy]

everyone wrote off Milwaukee Bucks after losing game 1, i say they make amends tonight, lay the 7!

[reckless]

everyone wrote off Milwaukee Bucks after losing game 1, i say they make amends tonight, lay the 7!

Good call lambo.

Had similar thoughts the other day and took the 76ers in Game 2 after their horrible first game.

[Valuist]

Is there a better player in the NBA right now than Kevin Durant?

[cj]

Is there a better player in the NBA right now than Kevin Durant?

He's been the best for a few years. He just doesn't have to show it often since he teamed up with a bunch of future hall of famers.

[Jeff P]

The OKC Thunder made an appearance in the 2012 NBA Finals and lost to the Miami Heat.

Miami had Lebron James, D Wade, and Chris Bosh.

OKC had Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.

Every now and then I find myself wondering how many championships OKC might have won had they been able to keep that core group together.



-jp

.

[lansdale]

Even though I believe Durant is one of the top 15 all time players, I think Giannis is at least equal, and pehaps a shade better at this point. If Curry were 100%, which he doesn't seem to be at the moment, I'd put him at the same level. cj mentioned how much easier things are for him in GSW than OKC -- the defensive pressure is much reduced -- no more double and triple teams -- when two of the greatest 3-pt. shooters who ever played are on the floor with you.

Seems like a good chance we'll be seeing Durant vs. Giannis in the Finals -- should reveal something.

[cj]

Even though I believe Durant is one of the top 15 all time players, I think Giannis is at least equal, and pehaps a shade better at this point. If Curry were 100%, which he doesn't seem to be at the moment, I'd put him at the same level. cj mentioned how much easier things are for him in GSW than OKC -- the defensive pressure is much reduced -- no more double and triple teams -- when two of the greatest 3-pt. shooters who ever played are on the floor with you.

Seems like a good chance we'll be seeing Durant vs. Giannis in the Finals -- should reveal something.

Giannis could get there in my opinion but he isn't near the shooter KD is and that is a huge part of the game right now. Threes dominate the game and Giannis doesn't shoot them well. Eventually I think he'll pass KD.

Pop was lamenting how these days you can throw all the stats out the window. Just look at he box score and see who made the most threes and that is usually the winner. He was exaggerating, but he isn't far from the truth.

[lansdale]

Giannis could get there in my opinion but he isn't near the shooter KD is and that is a huge part of the game right now. Threes dominate the game and Giannis doesn't shoot them well. Eventually I think he'll pass KD.

Pop was lamenting how these days you can throw all the stats out the window. Just look at he box score and see who made the most threes and that is usually the winner. He was exaggerating, but he isn't far from the truth.

I wasn't really thinking in terms of total career, but just this year and right now, assuming that these two possibly meet in the Finals. Agree that the 3-pt. shot is now crucial to winning in the NBA, but you know as well as a do that there now a number of better 3-shooters in the league than KD, none of whom have a snowball's chance in hell of going to the HOF, where he's surely headed -- and a few of them, Forbes, Belinelli, and Bertans play for Pop. The Spurs had the best team 3-shooting in the league this year and they're on vacation.

The reason KD is going to the HOF is his all-around game: not only can he shoot the 3, he's probably the best slasher in the game, can make ungodly shots from any place on the court, is a good passer, has decent handles for a big man, and is a very good defender. GA is a very different type of player -- more on the order of LBJ or even Shaq, in using muscle around the hoop to score -- but not only doesn't he have a three, he has almost no outside game. If you look at his numbers for this year, 27/13/6/2 -- pretty incredible. He's either LBJ with much better rebounding, or Shaq with better passing. Also a very good defender.

Comparing their overall performance stats for this year:
PER: GA-30.9/KD-24.2
WS 48: GA .292/KD .204

To put GA's stats in perspective -- this is the 12th highest PER ever recorded -- the only people above him are MJ, Wilt, LBJ, and Curry. His WS 48 is only a shade below where KD and Curry were in their prime. However, I'm well aware that KD's stats are reduced due to playing fewer games and minutes than during his OKC days. So now we're seeing max KD -- he's pumping up the volume for the playoffs because GSW needs him big time. All these variables can be tricky, making evaluation of these two more difficult. For now, I can't separate them -- maybe after the season is over, I'll have a different perspective.

[Valuist]

I'm playing one prop tonight: Embiid Under 11 1/2 boards (-125).

He is listed as probable, but still not well enough to attend the shootaround this morning. On the road, clearly not 100%, I think it will impact him a bit defensively, especially on the boards. He probably will still get his points.

[Valuist]

Giannis could get there in my opinion but he isn't near the shooter KD is and that is a huge part of the game right now. Threes dominate the game and Giannis doesn't shoot them well. Eventually I think he'll pass KD.

Pop was lamenting how these days you can throw all the stats out the window. Just look at he box score and see who made the most threes and that is usually the winner. He was exaggerating, but he isn't far from the truth.

Agreed Giannis has to improve his shot. Where would Lebron rank right now? Is he even top 3 or 4? I'd put Kawhi above him now.

[cj]

Agreed Giannis has to improve his shot. Where would Lebron rank right now? Is he even top 3 or 4? I'd put Kawhi above him now.

Not the one we saw this year, and he isn't getting any younger.

[Jeff P]

I'm playing one prop tonight: Embiid Under 11 1/2 boards (-125).

He is listed as probable, but still not well enough to attend the shootaround this morning. On the road, clearly not 100%, I think it will impact him a bit defensively, especially on the boards. He probably will still get his points.


I realize he's been sick but good call. :ThmbUp:

6 boards (8 turnovers.)


-jp

.

[Valuist]

I realize he's been sick but good call. :ThmbUp:

6 boards (8 turnovers.)


-jp

.

Thanks.

I think we have an inefficiency in the prop market tonight. I bet Chris Paul Under 12.5 rebounds and assists (-115). It's interesting that there's prices for his for just rebounds, and just assists. Those prices are:

Rebounds Under 6 (-145)
Assists Under 6.5 (-125)

[Valuist]

Thanks.

I think we have an inefficiency in the prop market tonight. I bet Chris Paul Under 12.5 rebounds and assists (-115). It's interesting that there's prices for his for just rebounds, and just assists. Those prices are:

Rebounds Under 6 (-145)
Assists Under 6.5 (-125)

What made it a good bet was the price of the total at -115. By game time, it was -130. The result doesn't even matter; it was a narrow win, but beat the final number and you will do OK.

One bet tonight: Enes Kanter Under 24.5 points, rebounds and assists (-114).

I can just hear "Muslim hater"! "Akeem had no problem during Ramadan! Yeah, Akeem is an all-time great. Enes Kanter is just another guy, going thru a fast during Ramadan. He's not much of a scorer anyways but any lack of energy is likely to show up on rebounds. But I think his entire game will be impacted to the point where I would expect him to play a bit less than his usual minutes total.

[cj]

What made it a good bet was the price of the total at -115. By game time, it was -130. The result doesn't even matter; it was a narrow win, but beat the final number and you will do OK.

One bet tonight: Enes Kanter Under 24.5 points, rebounds and assists (-114).

I can just hear "Muslim hater"! "Akeem had no problem during Ramadan! Yeah, Akeem is an all-time great. Enes Kanter is just another guy, going thru a fast during Ramadan. He's not much of a scorer anyways but any lack of energy is likely to show up on rebounds. But I think his entire game will be impacted to the point where I would expect him to play a bit less than his usual minutes total.

Not to mention he is playing with a pretty bad injury.

[Valuist]

Not to mention he is playing with a pretty bad injury.

Good point, although sometimes if one has two things wrong, one seems to cancel the other out. Would a lack of energy and hunger make him forget about his injury, or vica versa? Hopefully both bother him tonight.

[Valuist]

3 straight on the props. Haven't come up with an individual prop. I will have to see what the player total for points for Curry is. That game line is up to 7.5. I know Durant is out, and I even said in this thread Durant is the best player in the NBA right now. But the nucleus of the team that won a title before Durant got there is still in tact. Curry and Klay looked much better Wednesday night. Do you really want to lay 7.5 against Curry, Klay, Green and Iggy? I won't. I may play Harden under his point total, which I would guess will be around 35.

Already bet Toronto -6 1/2. Sixers look really good at home but I don't trust Embiid and Simmons in a game 7 on the road. Butler sure, but the other two really seem to feed off the energy of the home crowd. Marc Gasol has really done a job defensively on Embiid. Toronto shot really poorly last night from beyond the arc (about 4 less three pointers than could've been expected) and I expect that to return to normal.

Haven't bet the Denver/Portland game but leaning toward Portland. It opened at Denv -5 and has moved to -5.5. Could it get to 6? We know Denver has a big HCA due to the elevation, but in an elongated series, that is neutralized. I had a prop against Kanter last night which won, but he still rebounded (14) better than I thought. They don't need him to score. But there has been some free throw variance which cannot be ignored. In their last 3 games, Denver has hit 83 out of 91 free throw attempts (91%). Was this expected? Nope. Denver is a 76% team from the line, ranking them 19th during the season. Denver would've been expected to hit about 69 free throws in those games; 14 less. And Portland is an 80% FT team, second best in the NBA during the season, but in their last two games, the Blazers have hit only 38 out of 60 free throws, a meager 63%. They could've been expected to hit 48 in those two games. In the words of a famous horse racing analyst, who sometimes is on this site, Denver is "dressed up". I think I will trademark that expression if he hasn't already.

[tophatmert]

GS using less isolation plays and more swinging the ball around like pre Durant days may be the last thing HOU wants to see .

[Valuist]

GS using less isolation plays and more swinging the ball around like pre Durant days may be the last thing HOU wants to see .

Agreed. I have to admit I only caught the first half of their recent game but the ball movement for GS was excellent. Obviously there must've been some issues in the second half (besides Durant getting hurt) as they went from the game well in hand to a non-cover.

Also, we often see teams step it up first game after an injury to a major player. The Warriors can still remember blowing a game 7 to the Cavs a few years back. I think they go all out to not have it come down to a game 7. But Thompson returning to form cannot be underestimated. As good as he is, he can slide under the radar for that team but he can come up big in prime time.

[Valuist]

Playing one prop: James Harden total points, rebounds & assists UNDER 48.5 (+110)

I think Iggy can cause enough problems for Harden that he doesn't go crazy. Maybe 30 points. If that's the case, I don't see 19 combined boards and assists. No Durant may mean a few extra boards for Capella, but I doubt Harden gets a boost.

[Valuist]

A narrow win as Harden ended up with 48 total. At the pay window, they never ask for the winning margin.

Are there any Rocket fans out there? Admit it, they are horrible to watch. I'd rather watch paint dry than that horrible Harden iso ball.

[lansdale]

Typically spectacular performance by Kawhi Leonard to advance the Raptors to the ECF. Some saying his clutch, seeing-eye 3-pt. shot is the only Game 7 post-season buzzer beater in NBA history. If any fans know otherwise, would be interested. The shot:



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=75iExVNvrWw

[tophatmert]

Typically spectacular performance by Kawhi Leonard to advance the Raptors to the ECF. Some saying his clutch, seeing-eye 3-pt. shot is the only Game 7 post-season buzzer beater in NBA history. If any fans know otherwise, would be interested. The shot:



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=75iExVNvrWw

I believe Jordan had one in 1989 against Cleveland.

[Jeff P]

Jordan's shot (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shot) was clutch. But it came in game 5.

The Bulls won that series over the Cavs 3 games to 2.



-jp

.

[thaskalos]

Dramatic finish, especially with the ball rattling around the rim on that last shot...but let's not forget that the game was tied at that time. A real "clutch shot" would have demanded that the shooter's team be trailing by a point. :)

[Valuist]

I'm surprised it was only worth 2; thought Leonard was behind the line.

[thaskalos]

I'm surprised it was only worth 2; thought Leonard was behind the line.

It's obvious from lansdale's clip in post #115 that Leonard was well-inside the line.

[lansdale]

Typically spectacular performance by Kawhi Leonard to advance the Raptors to the ECF. Some saying his clutch, seeing-eye 3-pt. shot is the only Game 7 post-season buzzer beater in NBA history. If any fans know otherwise, would be interested. The shot:



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=75iExVNvrWw


My bad. Kawhi's shot was, indeed, only worth 2 points. Note to self: no more glue-sniffing while watching playoff games.

Regardless, the league did announce today that this was the first Game 7 buzzer-beater in its history. Many NBA observers now claiming immortality for Kawhi. Per the objection of Thaskalos, the league will next rule on the issue of whether the shot was truly 'clutch.' ;-).

Looking forward to Kawhi/Giannis showdown.

[thaskalos]

Looking forward to Kawhi/Giannis showdown.

Giannis in 5?

[Valuist]

Game 1: Portland/Golden State

Taking Under 221. Durant has missed 38 games since he joined Golden State; 12 have gone over and 26 under the posted total.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not a big NBA fan, I'll be honest.


This is about the time I tune in every year.


I see enough highlights I guess to keep up. With LeBron out, I'll root for Giannis and the Bucks. :headbanger:

[Elliott Sidewater]

Sports Science analyzed Kawhi's buzzer beating series ending shot, and said it had a 3% chance of going in. IMO, the Sixers would have lost the game in overtime anyway, they were in disarray at the end and Embiid was completely gassed, having played 45 minutes. It was close, but Toronto was the better team and deserved to win. Embiid's varied injuries and maladies were so bad that he was stationed in the remote parking area of the basketball court most of the game, a studious observer of ineffective passing and worse rebounding.

The Sixers decided to bring back Brent Brown next year, and I can only hope against hope that he can convince Embiid to grow up and take better care of himself, and for him to demand that Simmons fire his brother and get a real shooting coach. These guys are pros making the big money; is this too much to ask?

I kind of doubt that Kawhi Leonard's pre-game ritual includes 4 Chick-Fil-A milkshakes.

[PhantomOnTour]

Zion train is coming our way!
Pelicans get the first pick in the NBA draft.
Someone please post the Zion Train video by Bob Marley

[lansdale]

Giannis in 5?

I'd say Bucks in six, but wouldn't necessarily bet it. I do think the series price of Bucks -280 that I'm generally finding, seems like a safe bet.

[lansdale]

Zion train is coming our way!
Pelicans get the first pick in the NBA draft.
Someone please post the Zion Train video by Bob Marley

You think maybe AD knew what he was doing when he turned down the Laker offer? ;-)

[lansdale]

Game 1: Portland/Golden State

Taking Under 221. Durant has missed 38 games since he joined Golden State; 12 have gone over and 26 under the posted total.

Nice score -- you're really on a roll with these unders.

[cj]

You think maybe AD knew what he was doing when he turned down the Laker offer? ;-)

AD didn't turn that down, he'd have loved to have left. The Pelicans wouldn't take that collection of mediocre talent in return.

[Valuist]

Nice score -- you're really on a roll with these unders.

Thanks. I like the playoffs much better than the regular season. Not just for watching but for betting.

Tonight, I'm on Toronto at +7. Historically, teams off a week or longer have had some rust, so we will see how Milwaukee is impacted. Big win for Raptors Sunday night but they get one more day rest than Portland did. And Kawhi is too business like to get carried away celebtrating that win.

[lansdale]

AD didn't turn that down, he'd have loved to have left. The Pelicans wouldn't take that collection of mediocre talent in return.

My DIY emoji probably didn't convey the tongue-in-cheek nature of that line. He has no veto-power over trades, although, as with Kawhi and PG, the team was making a (supposedly) good-faith effort to move him rather than be left with nothing, and I understand he had accepted some type of re-signing agreement with any potential trade-target, as a sweetener.

But after all the psychodrama in NO surrounding AD, it was funny to me last night that he and the team were going to win hugely by simply standing pat. But since then, like everybody else, I hear that AD still wants out, and that even Zion doesn't want to go to NO and may withdraw. So, as usual, the insanity of the NBA remains far beyond my understanding. Below, a pretty good summary of the options for NO and effect on the NBA, assuming that Zion doesn't withdraw.

I'm guessing the AD-->Boston for Tatum/Brown/? and Zion playing for NO seems to a plausible outcome, but really, who the hell can say what will happen next in the NBA?





https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-orleans-won-the-nbas-golden-ticket-now-what-happens/

[Valuist]

Thanks. I like the playoffs much better than the regular season. Not just for watching but for betting.

Tonight, I'm on Toronto at +7. Historically, teams off a week or longer have had some rust, so we will see how Milwaukee is impacted. Big win for Raptors Sunday night but they get one more day rest than Portland did. And Kawhi is too business like to get carried away celebtrating that win.

Right bet, wrong result. Raptors were covering the game for 47.5 minutes and didn't score in final 3 minutes.

[lansdale]

Amazing turnaround in this series by Toronto, thanks to Kawhi, as usual, but also to a born-again Raptor bench, especially Fred Van Vleet. To make amends for calling this series for the Bucks, I would now say bet with both hands on the Raptors to close this series out on Saturday.

[Valuist]

A lot of 3 point variance in that Toronto win at Milwaukee. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucks take one on the road in Toronto. No way Van Vleet comes near what he did the other night.

[thaskalos]

I will be betting on Toronto to cover the small number at home. The Bucks have looked helpless in their prior two games in Toronto...and the pressure of the elimination game figures to be too much for the young Bucks team to overcome...IMO.

[lansdale]

A lot of 3 point variance in that Toronto win at Milwaukee. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucks take one on the road in Toronto. No way Van Vleet comes near what he did the other night.

I think you're right about Van Vleet likely reverting to the mean, but I also think the 180 reversal we've seen in this series is mainly attributable to Kawhi's increased coverage on Giannis in Games 3,4,5 from this first two. In the first two games, when he was the main defender on Gainnis an average of only 12.5 possessions per game the Bucks averaged 114 pts. per 100 possessions; in the last three games, with Kawhi on Giannis an average of 40 possessions a game, they averaged 85 pts. per 100 possessions -- a huge drop. This isn't Giannis' fault, it's a function of the team's limitations; against most teams, when Giannis is doubled, he can kick out to the open man for the three; but, since Kahwi has no problem checking Giannis straight up, there is usually no open man, and when there is, the Raps are such a good defensive team that the rotations are instantaneous. BTW, worth noting that another reason that the Bucks did so well in the first two games is that the Raps were barely rotating at all, leaving three shooters wide open. Most championships teams usually have at least two guys who need to be doubled -- Curry/Durant, Bird/McHale, Jordan/Pippen, LBJ/Wade, etc.. On the Bucks, it's only Giannis. You might say the same of the Raps, re Kawhi, but they also have more guys who can put the ball on the floor to get an open shot than the Bucks.

Think the Raps also have a psychological edge, aside from HC -- Gasol and Lowry are vet All Star players who have never been to the Finals. This is the most important game of their lives. I expect them to play that way. And Ibaka and Danny Green have been there once but this is likely their last shot to get there again in their careers. I think they too will bring it tonight.

More support for Raps from Nate Silver's model, which is now throwing out the Bucks and going out on a limb in slightly favoring them over GSW to win the title!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[Valuist]

Game 1 I'm taking Toronto first half minus a half point. I'm thinking GS could have some rust, but they are so good, they may overcome it in 2nd half. Still, Toronto's best chance to win of any game is in game 1.

[lansdale]

Generally agree with V.'s take on Game 1 -- think this is the Raps game to lose, so I'd give the point -- if they can't beat the Durant-less GSW off a long layoff at home, they're in serious trouble in this series.

BTW, if anyone looked at the link to Nate's site above and wondered about those numbers, he's favoring Raptors only on the basis that Durant doesn't play. If KD returns, reasonably healthy, Nate is making GSW the 3/5 favorite. But given question marks surrounding KD at this point, tough to call the Finals otherwise than game-by-game.

[Valuist]

I know Durant traveled to Toronto, but from everything I heard, it's highly unlikely he plays in game 2.

[lansdale]

I know Durant traveled to Toronto, but from everything I heard, it's highly unlikely he plays in game 2.

Yes, that's what it sounds like. I'm getting the feeling that he'll at least be back by Game 5, though his condition will still be a mystery. Hearing some insiders say they don't think he'll play at all in this series -- J. Van Gundy among them -- which would surprise me. Cousins activated for tonight, but unlikely he'll be a factor.

[Valuist]

Yes, that's what it sounds like. I'm getting the feeling that he'll at least be back by Game 5, though his condition will still be a mystery. Hearing some insiders say they don't think he'll play at all in this series -- J. Van Gundy among them -- which would surprise me. Cousins activated for tonight, but unlikely he'll be a factor.

The thing with Durant is, even if he plays, how many minutes can he go? That is an injury that won't allow him to do much cardio conditioning.

[lansdale]

The thing with Durant is, even if he plays, how many minutes can he go? That is an injury that won't allow him to do much cardio conditioning.

Agree with your basic point that Durant won't be in 100% condition upon return, although there are cardio options like the upper body ergometer (hand bike) and working out with a heavy bag while the injured limb is stabilized. They say that KD has already had one practice w/the team and it looks like he will almost certainly be returning for Game 4 and possibly even Game 3, so we'll see we'll know by then. If he can contribute, clearly the strategy will be try to have him ready for the crucial Game 5, where GSW will need to go all out (assuming they've split the first four games - as I tentatively am) to shoot for a back door sweep. But still a long way to go.

[lansdale]

Raptors all but threw away a shot at their first championship with a loss to a beaten up version of GSW at home in Game 2. Many stupid mistakes (of the kind the GSW rarely makes) by Lowry and Siakem, a 3-pt. brick-shooting clinic, and a ratcheting up of D on the part of the Warriors, exposed a team not yet ready for prime time. Raps should take Game 5, unless Durant returns, but will be amazed if they can win a game at Oracle.

[lansdale]

Some interest returning to this series, due to injuries to Looney and Klay, with Nate now effectively putting the series price at -110, while the Vegas line is -280, and the line for Game 3 has moved from -7 GSW to -4.5. If Klay is 70% of his usual self tonight, the Vegas series number looks right, if he's subpar, though, Nate could be right.

[Valuist]

I say Durant has played his last game for Golden State. Highly unlikely he returns at any point in this series.

[Greyfox]

Will the real Golden State Warriors show up?
Toronto has been very good!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Will the real Golden State Warriors show up?
Toronto has been very good!


GSW had their 4 or 5 year run.



NBA 'dynasties' never last much longer unless you want to bring up the 50s and 60s when free agency and players getting paid wasn't around.

[lansdale]

I say Durant has played his last game for Golden State. Highly unlikely he returns at any point in this series.

After today's announcement, sure looks that way --- for once Charles Barkley was right about something. Will be happy to see Kawhi and Raps win it, but sorry to see the value of the Finals destroyed by injuries once again. After the blowouts of the past two years, I was hoping for a competitive series. Many, rightly making comparisons with the decimated Cavs in 2016 Finals. Raps fans are already complaining about those calling this an *asterisk* championship, presuming they win, but will be difficult to see it as anything else.

[parlay]

Everything is an "asterisk win". Woulda coulda shoulda!
Interesting how these things work.
War of Will should be racing for the triple crown tomorrow.
Will he get an asterisk?

[cj]

After today's announcement, sure looks that way --- for once Charles Barkley was right about something. Will be happy to see Kawhi and Raps win it, but sorry to see the value of the Finals destroyed by injuries once again. After the blowouts of the past two years, I was hoping for a competitive series. Many, rightly making comparisons with the decimated Cavs in 2016 Finals. Raps fans are already complaining about those calling this an *asterisk* championship, presuming they win, but will be difficult to see it as anything else.

They can only play the team on the floor, no asterisk for me. Staying healthy is a big part of winning titles every year.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Everything is an "asterisk win". Woulda coulda shoulda!
Interesting how these things work.
War of Will should be racing for the triple crown tomorrow.
Will he get an asterisk?


Two things have really stuck out to me this post-season:


1. Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the NBA
2. Pascal Siakam is the most underrated player in the league

[lansdale]

Not sure about the spread, but I think GSW, with their backs to the wall, at home and with Klay back, take this -- so would go with -220 moneyline. Think that 3 pt. variance aptly noted by Valuist hits Raps tonight, and they shoot
<.35 tonight. Note to Kerr: think about keeping Jerebko super-glued to bench for remainder of Finals.

[lansdale]

Reading that Looney has been cleared to play tonight -- should make for a better game, if true.

[lansdale]

Wish I could say this has been a great series, but another blow-out -- unfortunately not. But seems more questionable whether GSW had a clear edge even with a 100% Durant -- would have been interesting to find out. Happy that the greatness of Kawhi is now being celebrated and props to Serge Ibaka, who was a crucial factor in this game off the bench.

[Valuist]

Got to believe last night was the final game to be played at Oracle Arena. After years of West dominance, 4 of the top 5 teams (IMO) now reside in the Eastern conference. Toronto has superior depth. And how big is Kawhi? Just look at how far San Antonio has fallen in the last 2 years.

[Valuist]

After today's announcement, sure looks that way --- for once Charles Barkley was right about something. Will be happy to see Kawhi and Raps win it, but sorry to see the value of the Finals destroyed by injuries once again. After the blowouts of the past two years, I was hoping for a competitive series. Many, rightly making comparisons with the decimated Cavs in 2016 Finals. Raps fans are already complaining about those calling this an *asterisk* championship, presuming they win, but will be difficult to see it as anything else.

I lived in the Bay area for several years and still talk to a few people from there. Nothing but excuses. Nobody giving Toronto any credit. Yes, Durant would've made a difference, but YOU JUST GOT MANHANDLED TWO STRAIGHT GAMES AT HOME. It wasn't like they were close. No asterisks, no excuses. Once again the team that goes thru the tougher road will prevail.

[Valuist]

Reading that Looney has been cleared to play tonight -- should make for a better game, if true.

He did play but clearly was in some pain. He went to the line for 2 free throws late in the game and you could see him grimacing before he shot the ball. Not surprisingly, he missed both. I expect him to be on the injury report for game 5.

[lansdale]

I lived in the Bay area for several years and still talk to a few people from there. Nothing but excuses. Nobody giving Toronto any credit. Yes, Durant would've made a difference, but YOU JUST GOT MANHANDLED TWO STRAIGHT GAMES AT HOME. It wasn't like they were close. No asterisks, no excuses. Once again the team that goes thru the tougher road will prevail.

I agree with you that 'asterisk' is the wrong word in this situation because it seems to try to deligitimize a championship which the winning team deserves -- however, that meme is absolutely out there among fans to the extent that the CBS website just ran a piece saying 'no asterisk' in response. I'll try to re-state in a better way: first, I have always been a huge Kawhi fan, and was sorry to see the soap opera that went down in SA surrounding his injury and departure. So, I'm very happy to see what's happened for him and the Raps in the past year -- which had not only to do with him, but also the shrewdness of Masai in also acquiring Gasol, Ibaka, and Danny Green, all talented defensive players. I think they're a very good team, similar in their style of play to LBJ's Heat.

But, in winning the title, which now seems likely, they're not beating the GSW team that won the last two championships. The question of how they would have fared vs. a team with Durant will remain unresolved -- it seems to me too close to call. I have no doubt that this is going to be the #1 argument among hardcore fans for the next year or so. In addition, as you say, the top teams in the east are now clearly stronger than most of the west. And speaking of the luck involved in any championship, one could make a good case now that the Raps were only a teetering corner shot from going into an unceratin overtime that could have knocked them out of the playoffs vs. the Sixers, who now look like, at least, the second best team in the NBA.

To add to the post-season drama, Durant is supposedly now saying that he will remain with GSW if they lose, when everyone has already written off his departure. Even more bizarrely, NBA future odds for the 2020 championship have GSW as the 9/5 favorite, with the Bucks second at 9/2 and Toronto far back at 30/1 -- go figure.

[lansdale]

He did play but clearly was in some pain. He went to the line for 2 free throws late in the game and you could see him grimacing before he shot the ball. Not surprisingly, he missed both. I expect him to be on the injury report for game 5.

You could absolutely see the pain, but even in his limited state, he was much more effective than the pitiable Cousins, who just wasn't ready, and the aged Bogut. Looney was actually tied with DG for third leading scorer with ten points!

[Valuist]

Riding in the car today, I hear the ESPN voice over guy say "Monday Night is a must win for Golden State". Well, that's kind of obvious. But then I thought about it......couldn't one make the case it's also a "must win" for Toronto? If Golden State goes into Canada and wins game 5, they now have momentum. They head back for the final game ever at Oracle and the crowd is totally jacked, and the Dubs take that. So if it gets to game 7, then the narrative becomes "will the Raptors choke this away", just like OKC in 2016?

The Raptors did face some pressure against Philly and Milwaukee, but nothing like they will face Monday night. They better not tread lightly, and step on the Warriors throat while they have the chance.

[Valuist]

I agree with you that 'asterisk' is the wrong word in this situation because it seems to try to deligitimize a championship which the winning team deserves -- however, that meme is absolutely out there among fans to the extent that the CBS website just ran a piece saying 'no asterisk' in response. I'll try to re-state in a better way: first, I have always been a huge Kawhi fan, and was sorry to see the soap opera that went down in SA surrounding his injury and departure. So, I'm very happy to see what's happened for him and the Raps in the past year -- which had not only to do with him, but also the shrewdness of Masai in also acquiring Gasol, Ibaka, and Danny Green, all talented defensive players. I think they're a very good team, similar in their style of play to LBJ's Heat.

But, in winning the title, which now seems likely, they're not beating the GSW team that won the last two championships. The question of how they would have fared vs. a team with Durant will remain unresolved -- it seems to me too close to call. I have no doubt that this is going to be the #1 argument among hardcore fans for the next year or so. In addition, as you say, the top teams in the east are now clearly stronger than most of the west. And speaking of the luck involved in any championship, one could make a good case now that the Raps were only a teetering corner shot from going into an unceratin overtime that could have knocked them out of the playoffs vs. the Sixers, who now look like, at least, the second best team in the NBA.

To add to the post-season drama, Durant is supposedly now saying that he will remain with GSW if they lose, when everyone has already written off his departure. Even more bizarrely, NBA future odds for the 2020 championship have GSW as the 9/5 favorite, with the Bucks second at 9/2 and Toronto far back at 30/1 -- go figure.

Interesting on the 2020 prices, but I guess they are assuming Kawhi leaves Toronto.

[Immanuel Kant]

Line for GM 5 when I bought it a couple of days ago was Tor -3 -07............this morning I checked and see Tor -1.5 -07.


I haven't heard anything but I have to assume either Durant is playing...... OR................. GS is continuing to be over valued!


What has anyone seen in games 1, 2, 3 and 4 to make them think GS can beat the Raptors three straight?


I live very close to Scotiabank arena.......I expect it to be very loud outside around 11:30 PM

[Robert Fischer]

Line for GM 5 when I bought it a couple of days ago was Tor -3 -07............this morning I checked and see Tor -1.5 -07.


I haven't heard anything but I have to assume either Durant is playing...... OR................. GS is continuing to be over valued!


What has anyone seen in games 1, 2, 3 and 4 to make them think GS can beat the Raptors three straight?


I live very close to Scotiabank arena.......I expect it to be very loud outside around 11:30 PM


Significant.


1st thought = Maybe the 'house' is baiting for more $ on Toronto's side, where maybe Golden State has a good night tonight and the ball bounces their way...
(supposedly, even w/ the 'over value', it's still close to a perfect 50% on each side, so an adjustment would be unnecessary, and perhaps a sucker-trap) :cool:

however, I clicked on ESPN, and they have a 'Durant Returns' headline.
Given that 'breaking news', the simplest, most logical assumption is that line was moved to help absorb the expected Golden State action following the Durant headline.

[lansdale]

Durant had a short practice with the bench guys yesterday and a longer one with the full team today, without any apparent problems. so looking good. Supposedly, his eligibility to play is a game time call by the trainer. But since he's listed as having no minutes restriction, it looks like he will play and even start. Hints dropped by Iggy suggests he's about 70% of his usual self, which is still pretty good. Line on the game has moved from TOR -2 to PK, which seems about right to me -- and another sign that KD is really playing.

Scotiabank Center will be rockin' for what should be the best Finals game since the great 2016 GSW/Cavs series. LA friend who's a GSW fan trying to conjure Game 5 of the 2016 WCF that began the GSW backdoor sweep of OKC, where Klay had 11 threes, but I reminded him that this is now an older, much more battered group of players -- that truly would be miraculous. But I would love to see this series go at least twenty more games ;-).

[lansdale]

Durant had a short practice with the bench guys yesterday and a longer one with the full team today, without any apparent problems. so looking good. Supposedly, his eligibility to play is a game time call by the trainer. But since he's listed as having no minutes restriction, it looks like he will play and even start. Hints dropped by Iggy suggests he's about 70% of his usual self, which is still pretty good. Line on the game has moved from TOR -2 to PK, which seems about right to me -- and another sign that KD is really playing.

Scotiabank Center will be rockin' for what should be the best Finals game since the great 2016 GSW/Cavs series. LA friend who's a GSW fan trying to conjure Game 5 of the 2016 WCF that began the GSW backdoor sweep of OKC, where Klay had 11 threes, but I reminded him that this is now an older, much more battered group of players -- that truly would be miraculous. But I would love to see this series go at least twenty more games ;-).


P.S.

Thinking KD's contribution on D may be more important (and probably more reliable) than his shooting tonight. E.g. he's the only GSW big with the athleticism to hang with Siakem -- will be waiting to see if KD can block his shot.

[parlay]

Both teams will be looking to exert their dominance off the hop, but this series seems to hinge on who can get the run starting the 3rd quarter. This game can go anyways and not surprise anyone. Go RAPS:jump::jump:

[thaskalos]

Can a 70% Durant justify the favoritism siding with the Warriors in tonight's game?

[lansdale]

Can a 70% Durant justify the favoritism siding with the Warriors in tonight's game?

Don't gamblers always have to work with incomplete information? ;-)

[ReplayRandall]

The heart of a Champion, despite Boogie Cousins....

[cj]

KD's injury is the achilles. Bob Meyers just confirmed what was pretty obvious watching.

[lansdale]

I was sidetracked after the game, but just wanted to add, for those who don't follow hoops, that if the MRI reveals KD's injury to be a complete rupture of the achilles, which seems likely, he has all but certainly destroyed a large part of his career, if not all of it, to possibly win one game. The achilles tendon is the strongest muscle in the body, and crucial for the lift and explosiveness required by basketball.

For those ridiculing Cousins' play in this series, until last year, he was one of the best centers in the league -- having monster games as late as last spring, when he blew out his achilles. Following surgery, he has returned as basically a journeyman-level player.

[JustRalph]

Saw this on Twitter.......yikes!

https://twitter.com/ACLrecoveryCLUB/status/1138268211378450432

[Robert Fischer]

I was sidetracked after the game, but just wanted to add, for those who don't follow hoops, that if the MRI reveals KD's injury to be a complete rupture of the achilles, which seems likely, he has all but certainly destroyed a large part of his career, if not all of it, to possibly win one game. The achilles tendon is the strongest muscle in the body, and crucial for the lift and explosiveness required by basketball.

For those ridiculing Cousins' play in this series, until last year, he was one of the best centers in the league -- having monster games as late as last spring, when he blew out his achilles. Following surgery, he has returned as basically a journeyman-level player.

That's terrible.

Durant is one of the guys I root for. He came up in the DC-Area, PG County where I had played a lot of basketball.

I haven't followed basketball closely.

Read a comment about the point spread movement yesterday morning (on PA), and was interested enough to do some quick google/web-surfing.

-In that search, I came across several (what I would consider unreliable, especially in that context/before-the-achilles-injury) low-value sources, proclaiming that it was actually his achilles, and that by playing, he was risking a free-agent payday etc...

I dismissed that content as low value.

Then, last night, I checked score before falling off to sleep, and I see the terrible injury, and I see guys like (former NFL player) Sharpe, and Charles Barkley blabbing and tweeting 'i told you so' type of perspectives...

Kind of shocking. I don't know if these were just vulgar 'gossip' types, or if there really was an 'elephant in the room', regarding an obvious serious achilles risk. I can't imagine Durant and his team/agents giving the green light to play in such a situation, even with the possible heroics of helping Golden State reverse momentum in the championship series. But it happened. In hindsight, the vulgar gossipers look like they knew all along. I haven't followed his condition at all, outside of half-hour window yesterday/today.

[reckless]

KD's injury is the achilles. Bob Meyers just confirmed what was pretty obvious watching.

You're a bigger fan and expert than I am CJ, but does this injury mean Durant is out for the 2019-20 season? How about career-ending??

I recall years ago that achilles injuries were career ending. Thanks.

[Valuist]

Riding in the car today, I hear the ESPN voice over guy say "Monday Night is a must win for Golden State". Well, that's kind of obvious. But then I thought about it......couldn't one make the case it's also a "must win" for Toronto? If Golden State goes into Canada and wins game 5, they now have momentum. They head back for the final game ever at Oracle and the crowd is totally jacked, and the Dubs take that. So if it gets to game 7, then the narrative becomes "will the Raptors choke this away", just like OKC in 2016?

The Raptors did face some pressure against Philly and Milwaukee, but nothing like they will face Monday night. They better not tread lightly, and step on the Warriors throat while they have the chance.

Here we go. Toronto had their chance to close out the Warriors and they couldn't do it. Are the Warriors in their heads? Will the Raptors choke it away? If it gets to game 7, there is going to be a TON of pressure on Toronto.

[cj]

You're a bigger fan and expert than I am CJ, but does this injury mean Durant is out for the 2019-20 season? How about career-ending??

I recall years ago that achilles injuries were career ending. Thanks.

Career ending, no, but will probably miss the whole season and definitely cost him a step and some spring.

[Valuist]

I'm playing two player props for game 6:

Klay Thompson Over 23.5 points
Boogie Cousins Under 11 points

While I think Toronto is probably the right bet tonight, if they lose tonight, they will go down in game 7, so I grabbed some Golden State +255 to take the series.

[lansdale]

Don't have quite the same level of interest in this series after watching KD blow out his Achilles the other night. Amazed that GSW medical staff gave him the green light to play -- guessing a suit is a possibility, especially since it seems as though a few teams still want to max KD despite the injury.

I was pretty depressed when posting about the possibile damage to KD's career after Game 5, but the linked Nate Silver piece below on the implications of KD's injury has a more objective take about its possible effect on h is career, ncluding a chart of some of the results of Achilles blowouts of NBA players of recent years. It seems that, except in the case of Dominique Wilkins, the better the player, the more unlikely they were able to recover anything close to their previous level of performance.





https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kevin-durants-injury-means-for-kd-the-finals-and-free-agency/

[lansdale]

That's terrible.

Durant is one of the guys I root for. He came up in the DC-Area, PG County where I had played a lot of basketball.

I haven't followed basketball closely.

Read a comment about the point spread movement yesterday morning (on PA), and was interested enough to do some quick google/web-surfing.

-In that search, I came across several (what I would consider unreliable, especially in that context/before-the-achilles-injury) low-value sources, proclaiming that it was actually his achilles, and that by playing, he was risking a free-agent payday etc...

I dismissed that content as low value.

Then, last night, I checked score before falling off to sleep, and I see the terrible injury, and I see guys like (former NFL player) Sharpe, and Charles Barkley blabbing and tweeting 'i told you so' type of perspectives...

Kind of shocking. I don't know if these were just vulgar 'gossip' types, or if there really was an 'elephant in the room', regarding an obvious serious achilles risk. I can't imagine Durant and his team/agents giving the green light to play in such a situation, even with the possible heroics of helping Golden State reverse momentum in the championship series. But it happened. In hindsight, the vulgar gossipers look like they knew all along. I haven't followed his condition at all, outside of half-hour window yesterday/today.

Hi RF,

I think you mentioned your own recovery from a sports-related injury, so I'm sure you can to relate to some of what KD is going through right now. Gotta be rough.

Re the media voices telling KD to back away from playing, they obviously were right. And it wasn't only in the public sphere that he was hearing this -- apparently a number of ex-players, including Sam Perkins called him and gave him the same advice. In the end, it's your body, and the interests of the individual athlete in protecting his ability to play at a high level for as long as possible, are not aligned with those of the either the team or the fans, who are intent on winning 'now.' I hope this incident will shut down some of the voices that demand that injured athletes play regardless of their condition.

Cheers,

lansdale

[woodtoo]

Not a huge fan but congratulations Toronto Raptors on a gutsty win last night.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
Being from Canada will they get an invite to the White House?

[Valuist]

Klay was playing out of his mind. If he doesn't go down, little doubt in my mind there's a game 7 in Ontario. Kawhi was nearly unanimous MVP but I didn't think it was that clear cut. Glad to see Van Vleet get a vote. He was huge, as was Lowry and Siakum.

[parlay]

Klay was playing out of his mind. If he doesn't go down, little doubt in my mind there's a game 7 in Ontario. Kawhi was nearly unanimous MVP but I didn't think it was that clear cut. Glad to see Van Vleet get a vote. He was huge, as was Lowry and Siakum.

Agree with everything you said but i had a more doubt.

[Robert Fischer]

Career ending, no, but will probably miss the whole season and definitely cost him a step and some spring.

Sounds accurate. :ThmbUp:

I'm thinking very much in line with that opinion.

If all goes smoothly on schedule, I'd expect him to miss a full season, come back leveraging a bit more of his length + shooting range and his 'gather' to try to make up the difference of that 'lost step'. He'd likely be a little less of a 'closer' and struggle to force/create baskets vs. double teams and tough 1-on-1 situations. He may even pack on a few pounds of muscle mass. The decline would be most evident on Defense.

[lansdale]

Anthony Davis has been traded to the Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and picks. But they were able to retain Kuzma, which gives the team three proven scorers and an excellent chance to win the NBA West. A 10th trip to the Finals for Lebron?




https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26981805/sources-lakers-reach-deal-pelicans-davis

[cj]

Anthony Davis has been traded to the Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and picks. But they were able to retain Kuzma, which gives the team three proven scorers and an excellent chance to win the NBA West. A 10th trip to the Finals for Lebron?




https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26981805/sources-lakers-reach-deal-pelicans-davis

Seems a stretch to put them in the finals. They have a chance, but still going to need a lot more depth. Looks like they'll pursue Kemba. They definitely are going to need some depth and I'm not sure where it will come from. LeBron started showing some signs of getting older and AD always has injury issues. I'm going against.

[Robert Fischer]

LeBron sells.

Move helps the league. No, it's not a guarantee, with health playing a major factor (and chemistry + depth determining how far ultimately)

I don't know if Jimmy Butler is off the table, now that Davis is on board, but that would certainly add strength if not bench depth.

LeBron isn't getting any younger, and Durant is probably facing a year of rehabilitation, so the time is now. Let's get them to the playoffs in good health with some depth, and then see what happens.

Risky/Underlay as far as sports betting, but it makes next season a lot more interesting than 2018-19's $%!#-show of the top-heavy Warriors, the impotent LeBron-Lakers, and the league desperately trying to make a star out of the Greek Freak and Kawhi Leonard.

[lansdale]

Seems a stretch to put them in the finals. They have a chance, but still going to need a lot more depth. Looks like they'll pursue Kemba. They definitely are going to need some depth and I'm not sure where it will come from. LeBron started showing some signs of getting older and AD always has injury issues. I'm going against.

Right -- I'm not putting them in the Finals, just saying they have an outside shot now vs. 0 without AD. I think most would agree, though, that considering the sad developments with GSW in the past week, the AD move, and FA action still to come, the NBA West is more wide-open this year than it's been in awhile. And I think this move may shift the center of gravity in the league to LA for FAs and vet min. salary role-players making decisions about where they want to go next year, which will help w/depth. If Kemba does end up there (though I read he wants to stay in NC), I think they do become a lock in the west.

Regardless, Lakers are now a lukewarm 7/2 favorite on the Vegas line to win the championship. In fact, for anyone who bets NBA Futures, the current line appears to be the worst I've ever seen -- west teams at much lower odds than warranted, imho. I think it's almost free money to fade the west and dutch the top three east teams (TOR, SIXERS, BUCKS) to win the title.

[cj]

Right -- I'm not putting them in the Finals, just saying they have an outside shot now vs. 0 without AD. I think most would agree, though, that considering the sad developments with GSW in the past week, the AD move, and FA action still to come, the NBA West is more wide-open this year than it's been in awhile. And I think this move may shift the center of gravity in the league to LA for FAs and vet min. salary role-players making decisions about where they want to go next year, which will help w/depth. If Kemba does end up there (though I read he wants to stay in NC), I think they do become a lock in the west.

Regardless, Lakers are now a lukewarm 7/2 favorite on the Vegas line to win the championship. In fact, for anyone who bets NBA Futures, the current line appears to be the worst I've ever seen -- west teams at much lower odds than warranted, imho. I think it's almost free money to fade the west and dutch the top three east teams (TOR, SIXERS, BUCKS) to win the title.

Agree with all of that. The top of the East is stronger at this point.

[davew]

Canada wins - a country of great diversity


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WES8x-jL9Gs