Magnum Moon...done

[GMB@BP]

Hurt front leg...man these Pletcher horses can be brittle.

How many of his 4 graded winners this spring will actually end up having more of a career?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Hurt front leg...man these Pletcher horses can be brittle.

How many of his 4 graded winners this spring will actually end up having more of a career?


That sucks.


I'll be surprised if Audible ever races again.

[GMB@BP]

That sucks.


I'll be surprised if Audible ever races again.

Audible
Magnum Moon
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy

Audible is most talented, but he has been back from the farm for a while and not sure I have heard about any works.

Vino Rosso is a plodder to me, I guess he can spring a upset but don't see the talent there to be much of anything.

Noble Indy is not any good.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Audible
Magnum Moon
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy

Audible is most talented, but he has been back from the farm for a while and not sure I have heard about any works.

Vino Rosso is a plodder to me, I guess he can spring a upset but don't see the talent there to be much of anything.

Noble Indy is not any good.


Haven't heard a peep about Audible; and I look. Not good.


Vino and Noble were simply exposed as average. Vino raced in the Wood for a reason. Noble snaked into the Derby and they ran the course. I think he might actually be pretty decent in the future though (if he can remain healthy).

[Robert Fischer]

Unbeknownst to us, these guys deal with issues.
Magnum Moon was one I worried about. Here was a horse who was supposed to start as a 2yo at Saratoga, but missed 5 months training because of an ankle injury. A January 13th debut. Since the point-system change, only PATCH got a later start of all TAPs Derby Entrants. He won the Rebel Stakes and drifted out in the stretch. Then he won the Arkansas Derby and lugged out to the grandstand. Now what are you supposed to do?? Shut the horse down?? He just won a ticket to the Derby. Some 'experts' are actually picking him to win... You just heard Vic tell us that he was a "Bad Moon :cool: On The RISEEE!!!"... You can't shut him down now for something that only surfaces under stress. Can you??

Very tough to give a retirement or a year+ layoff to a horse holding a ticket to the Kentucky Derby and whom is considered a contender.

That's a horse I tossed, and I pointed it out in the little video I did, but the main thing is you never want to see a horse get hurt. Finished only ahead of the eased/walked-off Mendelssohn, but apparently without major incident in the Kentucky Derby. Now this.

One of those harsh realities when the business of the sport and the ownership is at odds with the health of the animal. Never like to see it.

Hopefully he survives this and has a good retirement.

[GMB@BP]

Yea, horse was lugging out in those races for a reason...I guess credit is due to pletcher for getting the most out of what seemed like a horse destined to have a short career.

[clicknow]

I pretty much only use Pletcher horses for TC prep races, and only in exotics, as they are chalky in the prep races.

There are so many horses who IMHO could make a really good living for their owners if they would just not go to the TC. Dublin was one who came to mind. Nice looking big strappin' horse, I used to admire him in the paddocks every time he raced. I liked that horse for G2 and G3 stakes races, instead they burned him out in the TC stuff and he sure wasn't suited for those distances.

He could have won some nice mile-ish stakes races all that summer and the year after.

Derby fever, etc. not always a good trajectory for many of these who aren't really 1-1/4 horses to begin with.

Magnum Moon had a lot of potential, but you are right about that early ankle injury. It's hard to develop a young horse when they need to go to the farm to recuperate right when you are trying to develop them.

[clicknow]

Audible
Magnum Moon
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy

Audible is most talented, but he has been back from the farm for a while and not sure I have heard about any works.

Vino Rosso is a plodder to me, I guess he can spring a upset but don't see the talent there to be much of anything.

Noble Indy is not any good.


I think you are judging horses on classic distance TC races, which really isn't what the majority of U.S. race horses "excel" at because we don't card enough races at those distances, nor do we really breed for them.

So, I disagree with you that vino rosso and noble indy are "not any good".

At classic distances, no. They are most likely elite 8.5-9Fers who can push a little further. Most are not 10F-12F horses. And yes, there is a difference.

Whitmore is a perfect example. MOST of the derby field we find out, every year, are better sprinters and milers. We keep seeing this but every year we keep thinking we are betting on 10F horses. They just are not.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I think you are judging horses on classic distance TC races, which really isn't what the majority of U.S. race horses "excel" at because we don't card enough races at those distances, nor do we really breed for them.

So, I disagree with you that vino rosso and noble indy are "not any good".

At classic distances, no. They are most likely elite 8.5-9Fers who can push a little further. Most are not 10F-12F horses. And yes, there is a difference.

Whitmore is a perfect example. MOST of the derby field we find out, every year, are better sprinters and milers. We keep seeing this but every year we keep thinking we are betting on 10F horses. They just are not.


Can't disagree more. We've had 6 straight favorites win the Kentucky Derby. I don't think the general public is confused about the distance and who can win.

[Robert Fischer]

Vino wasn't terrible in the Belmont.

Thought there were 3 really similar performances from 3 solid-but-not-great 3yos...

Vino Rosso - Had the worst setup of the three, should have been ridden more conservatively. Also finished with the worst energy of the trio and had the worst literal placing (4th).

Gronkowski - Had a very good setup, and a good rail trip on the turn. Finished with good energy. Footwork a little sketchy. Best literal placing of the 3 (2nd).

Hofburg - Better setup than Vino but worse than Gronk. Also significantly wider than Gronkowski. Good energy in the stretch. Of the 3, still has 'potential' to be moving forward (although any of the 3 could improve mid/late year, and Gronkowski is still virtually an unknown). Exciting horse to follow and seems to be on a path to Saratoga.


TLDR: I wouldn't totally disparage/dismiss Vino yet.


Audible has had some hoof issues. Not sure if he went to the farm for some time or simply a layoff, but expect him to receive top care and come back strong and carrying good weight. I'm not a huge Audible fan, but he was a legit 3rd-best in a very good Kentucky Derby.

[GMB@BP]

Just to be clear these are very good horses, saying they are not is in the context of grade 1 or 2 dirt routers.

I think Vinno Rosso is slow, and his most impressive race probably was the Belmont where he at least made a move to engage the leader.

The problem is he has never run a fast race, and run more bad races than good. So for a horse who will continue to take money I just feel like he is a bet against.

Audible, I said was solid, he obviously though has physical issues, and it looks silly looking back at those that questioned why he was not running in the Belmont.

Noble Indy, he will need paceless type front end efforts to win races, and likely not Grade 1 races that I would judge quality on.

Magnum Moon, has been retired, so I think he ended up as a very average winner of what is usually a top class race, the Arkansas Derby.

[clicknow]

Can't disagree more. We've had 6 straight favorites win the Kentucky Derby. I don't think the general public is confused about the distance and who can win.

I said "most" are not 10F+ horses.

You're giving me 1 horse who wins.

...... and that somehow negates my statement?

[clicknow]

Just to be clear these are very good horses, saying they are not is in the context of grade 1 or 2 dirt routers.

I think Vinno Rosso is slow, and his most impressive race probably was the Belmont where he at least made a move to engage the leader.

The problem is he has never run a fast race, and run more bad races than good. So for a horse who will continue to take money I just feel like he is a bet against.

Audible, I said was solid, he obviously though has physical issues, and it looks silly looking back at those that questioned why he was not running in the Belmont.

Noble Indy, he will need paceless type front end efforts to win races, and likely not Grade 1 races that I would judge quality on.

Magnum Moon, has been retired, so I think he ended up as a very average winner of what is usually a top class race, the Arkansas Derby.

And today in the Ohio Derby, Lone Sailor hung as usual, and Flameaway was nowhere to be found ITM. These are barely 1-1/8 horses, 1-1/4 a bridge too far. They will start winning again at 1-1/16th. These are not Classic "Stayers".

I remember having a huge argument with my friend who thought Gayego was gonna win the Ky Derby. Another (good) miler. Every year there are about 14-15 of them running in the KY Derby.

[GMB@BP]

And today in the Ohio Derby, Lone Sailor hung as usual, and Flameaway was nowhere to be found ITM. These are barely 1-1/8 horses, 1-1/4 a bridge too far. They will start winning again at 1-1/16th. These are not Classic "Stayers".

I remember having a huge argument with my friend who thought Gayego was gonna win the Ky Derby. Another (good) miler. Every year there are about 14-15 of them running in the KY Derby.

Core Beliefs had the best figures going into that race, the fact he had a horrible trip and still beat the perfect trip Lone Sailor just tells me that neither him or Flameaway is much of a horse, in fact Flameway is pretty dressed up, attending someone soft paces with perfect trips. I put $10 bucks on a 50/1 shot in that race, the field just inspired no confidence.

The best races are at 9F so that is what I judge horses on on todays game. Very few 10F horses like an Arrogate out there.

[classhandicapper]

This crop is looking worse and worse by the day.

[cj]

This crop is looking worse and worse by the day.

I personally think all the Triple Crown races were taxing at a minimum pace wise, and the first two quite brutal. I think it has taken a toll on the horses that were in over their heads.

[GMB@BP]

I personally think all the Triple Crown races were taxing at a minimum pace wise, and the first two quite brutal. I think it has taken a toll on the horses that were in over their heads.

The horses who have attended slow paces certainly have been exposed. Only Good Magic stepped up off those paces really, and he was already proven a real race horse.

Also gotta be cynical about any figure in slow paced race, even if its a closer.

[papillon]

Audible
Magnum Moon
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy

Audible is most talented, but he has been back from the farm for a while and not sure I have heard about any works.

Vino Rosso is a plodder to me, I guess he can spring a upset but don't see the talent there to be much of anything.

Noble Indy is not any good.

Magnum Moon was never going to run again. How many Pletcher's sent to the farm right after a race ever return?

Who knows if Audible is a good horse, just because he got 3rd in a Derby where conditions and actual physical contact took out half the field. Lots of horses finish in the top 3 of the derby to never run a lick again. Same with the Preakness. Same with the Belmont. He'll be retired anyway, so its moot. He's a Pletcher/Windstar duo, they rarely last past October, after having gone radio silent by July.

I was told Frosted was great for two years (and by some still am told), he was 6 for 19, 1 win as a 2yo, 2 wins as a 3 year old, 3 wins as a 4 year old.

Gronkowski has all of the hallmarks of a never do anything much again horse, or at best a Mubtahij 5 for 24 over 5 years. He went 1, 3, 0, 1, 0.

Vino Rosso, as long as he stays sound, will likely be a typical knock around, "horse for the state," Repole/Pletcher. I see him doing far better than Gronkowski. And people acting like the seperation at the Belmont between 1st and 4th was anything special are smoking crack.

Noble Indy was taken back and walked around the track in the Belmont, with Castellano literally not riding at all in the stretch as he was having a cordial chat with Geroux instead. It is why he's already back on the work tab. Likewise, his ride in the Derby was just plain weird . He cleared the scrum, on pace and trajectory to beat Bolt to the front, then was literally pulled up as Geroux stood all the way up in the irons staring back at Mendelssohn, and then rushes up with Mendelssohn to catch the back of the front, runs wide the whole way glued to Mendelssohn's side, only to be pulled up again, with Geroux turned all the way around again, looking back at Mendelssohn, who had just been pinched again, then eased by Moore. Bloodhorse has the stills, they speak for themselves. Who knows how good or bad the horse is, he doesn't appear to have been asked to do anything but show up since the LA Derby.

Justafarians don't get it both ways. If his competition is crap, his failure to achieve seperation speaks for itself. Either Vino Rosso is a good horse, or Justify isn't. He beat Vino Rosso in the Belmont, but not by enough to embarrass the horse or stamp himself as a worldbeater. Nor is Good Magic, who certainly didn't demolish Flameaway in the Blue Grass, was embarrased in the FOY, and has only beaten Bolt, Solomini, and flameaway on a fast track.

I am on record for having said that Bolt and Solomini were nothing special. I was agnostic about every other horse but Mendelssohn. I think this crop is proving it is a glorious case of emperor's new clothes. FWIW, TG has Justify slower than Gunnevera. I don't care about figs, but it certainly isn't the case that every voice of authority has much respect for this crop, even the best of it.

I see a lot of American Anthems in the making, all out to beat claimers.

[classhandicapper]

Magnum Moon is another of an endless list of Pletcher horses that he got primed for the Derby preps, won something important with, and then was either retired or didn't develop further.

It has to be both training method and intent.

He must be strategically trying to crank his horses up early in their careers to get important wins in the Derby preps. But then, it either takes a toll on them or they get passed up by horses trained with a more patient approach. In the mean time, with Grade 1 wins in the bank the connections get to cash in even if the horse never gets "really" good with further development.

[Afleet]

Hurt front leg...man these Pletcher horses can be brittle.

How many of his 4 graded winners this spring will actually end up having more of a career?

I stated before the Derby there is no way I woulds run him or Mendolsshon, if I owned either, on the quagmire of a track

[clicknow]

I was told Frosted was great for two years (and by some still am told), he was 6 for 19, 1 win as a 2yo, 2 wins as a 3 year old, 3 wins as a 4 year old.

Gronkowski has all of the hallmarks of a never do anything much again horse, or at best a Mubtahij 5 for 24 over 5 years. He went 1, 3, 0, 1, 0.


Mubtaahij has won $5,780,332 (quite a lot more than Frosted). And is still racing as a 6 year old (and running ITM)! Sorry, can't knock this horse.

Noble Indy was a cheap yearling, I never bet those to win the Belmont Stakes.

[Spalding No!]

I see a lot of American Anthems in the making, all out to beat claimers.
Nearly half of St. Joe Bay's 30 career starts have been in stakes races. In fact, he's a multiple graded stakes winner who was 4th to Mind Your Biscuits in last year's Dubai Golden Shaheen.

He also topped American Anthem's best career Beyer twice.

[GMB@BP]

Nearly half of St. Joe Bay's 30 career starts have been in stakes races. In fact, he's a multiple graded stakes winner who was 4th to Mind Your Biscuits in last year's Dubai Golden Shaheen.

He also topped American Anthem's best career Beyer twice.

Sadler and Hronis racing...a dangerous combo the past 5 years or so.

Funny, outside of that client hardly feels like Sadler trains for anyone.

[Spalding No!]

Sadler and Hronis racing...a dangerous combo the past 5 years or so.

Funny, outside of that client hardly feels like Sadler trains for anyone.
I think he has one or two for Mercedes Stable and Jerry Moss and a couple others, but it's basically all Hronis or bust at this point.

[cj]

Nearly half of St. Joe Bay's 30 career starts have been in stakes races. In fact, he's a multiple graded stakes winner who was 4th to Mind Your Biscuits in last year's Dubai Golden Shaheen.

He also topped American Anthem's best career Beyer twice.

While all true, he has been dreadful since that trip to Dubai in seven subsequent starts. He certainly isn't a claimer but the change in barns seems to have given him a new lease on life.

[Robert Fischer]

Thought SJB was a warrior in that race and that (the more talented) American Anthem looked like he hung and was disappointing.

AA is supposed to be a headliner. Much different result than Ax Man, but I thought it was also an unexpected regression. Someone was alive to St. Joe Bay on the Pick-6... that was a tough beat (No idea what the probable was but, seem to recall only 2 horses were alive; 2SJB & 6Touching Rainbows - thought it was odd that no one had covered heavy into AA... ).

[burnsy]

Can't disagree more. We've had 6 straight favorites win the Kentucky Derby. I don't think the general public is confused about the distance and who can win.


That's true, but out of the 6, half of these horses were never the same again. Always Dreaming, Nyquist and Orb. And those were ones that won the race. You go one year before that and I'll Have Another couldn't even finish the sequence and was retired too. Before that, there's stalwarts such as Super Saver, Mine That Bird and RIP Barbaro.

Yeah, these horses can make it once or twice and the public knows that. But what I notice is that longevity and stamina is God awful. Bred to be fast not to last. Out of the last 20 years there are more of these I could just go on and on about the winners. The ones that lose and disappear is even a longer one. Like this horse.

[GMB@BP]

Thought SJB was a warrior in that race and that (the more talented) American Anthem looked like he hung and was disappointing.

AA is supposed to be a headliner. Much different result than Ax Man, but I thought it was also an unexpected regression. Someone was alive to St. Joe Bay on the Pick-6... that was a tough beat (No idea what the probable was but, seem to recall only 2 horses were alive; 2SJB & 6Touching Rainbows - thought it was odd that no one had covered heavy into AA... ).

AA was a bit dressed up off slow pace front end type wins, I actually thought this to be one of his better races.

[Spalding No!]

While all true, he has been dreadful since that trip to Dubai in seven subsequent starts. He certainly isn't a claimer but the change in barns seems to have given him a new lease on life.
Dreadful is a bit harsh. I can forgive his two final starts of 2017, as he was returning from Dubai and also appeared to get the famous Desormeaux stretch ride or lack thereof which were completely uncharacteristic for the horse when not ridden by Desormeaux.

He might not have cared for the Oaklawn surface, but was slowly improving with the third off the layoff (improving his form on 3-time rival Recount). He then clearly had some traffic issues (checked, steadied) in his Oaklawn finale.

Ran into a buzzsaw in Stone Hands (the bubble burst in the San Carlos with a curious ride from Gutierrez) in his Santa Anita return but ran well and note his stellar Santa Anita record (11-3-5-1).

Overall, I agree Sadler seems to have a knack with these sorts of sprint types, but Miller may have given up a bit too soon or perhaps was taking a chance that his Oaklawn form and age wouldn't make him attractive at a $62.5K price tag.

[GMB@BP]

I agree with Spalding to a certain extent on the darkened form....

that being, being real, American Anthem is "ok" and had a lot a easy trip to dress up his form. I dont think he is nearly as talented as say Danzing Candy who won the race last year.