Valuist
09-02-2004, 01:14 PM
When I'm looking at a race, one of the first things I think about is what kind of a wager would be best for the race or should it be passed altogether. The main variables are field size, positive or negative opinions on specific horses, and how the race fits in a multi race wager.
Field size- for trifectas, I avoid any race under 8 betting interests. 8 is passable but 9 and up is preferable. My favorite tri strategy is to spider-out and try to get a bomb in the 3rd slot. I'll spread out in exactas in fields of 10 or higher. In a 6 or 7 horse field, I will limit myself to either a 2 horse box or just 2 combinations. A win bet can be made on 6 horse fields but when it gets down to 5, I will pass. For multi race wagers field size isn't as important but if the middle leg of a P3 has a 5 horse field with a likely odds on choice, I'll pass it.
Negative opinion- I like exploiting a dislike for a horse more than a positive opinion. Tossing an overbet favorite or two out of exactas and tris are always good strategies. I prefer those to the P3, where I can be right about my opinion, yet still lose the bet. I'll still play the P3, but the single race wager would be the priority wager in these cases.
Positive opinion- If I like a horse and he's 10-1 or up, I'll bet to win and backwheel in the exacta w/a couple horses I feel could upset. May play some P3s but only if I have fairly strong opinions on the other races. My bottom price for a win bet? 9-5. Some may laugh at that but I know when I have a strong opinion on a 9-5 or 2-1 horse that I will make money in the long run. These horses still win a high percentage of the races.
Type of race-To me the NW2 claimers are the most unpredictable, toughest races of all to beat. I usually pass them and only play them in a P3 or P4 if I have definitive opinions on the other races. Other races to avoid are races with too many first timers or layoff horses. In these cases, I figure the guys and women on the backside will know more than I will. The best races? Definitely stakes. Most of my biggest scores and longshots have come in stakes races. Stakes are one kind of race where even the longshots have pretty good form. All things being equal, I prefer routes to sprints.
Track conditions-I either avoid sloppy or muddy or cut back significantly on what I play. Soft turf presents some of the best opportunities in racing. Southern California may have great weather but fans that only play that circuit miss out on the great plays on soft or yielding turf. As for bias, generally the toughest tracks to beat are outside, stalker-closer friendly main tracks. I like Arlington, but it tends to be that way all meet. Tracks that occasionally come up outside are the toughest.
Field size- for trifectas, I avoid any race under 8 betting interests. 8 is passable but 9 and up is preferable. My favorite tri strategy is to spider-out and try to get a bomb in the 3rd slot. I'll spread out in exactas in fields of 10 or higher. In a 6 or 7 horse field, I will limit myself to either a 2 horse box or just 2 combinations. A win bet can be made on 6 horse fields but when it gets down to 5, I will pass. For multi race wagers field size isn't as important but if the middle leg of a P3 has a 5 horse field with a likely odds on choice, I'll pass it.
Negative opinion- I like exploiting a dislike for a horse more than a positive opinion. Tossing an overbet favorite or two out of exactas and tris are always good strategies. I prefer those to the P3, where I can be right about my opinion, yet still lose the bet. I'll still play the P3, but the single race wager would be the priority wager in these cases.
Positive opinion- If I like a horse and he's 10-1 or up, I'll bet to win and backwheel in the exacta w/a couple horses I feel could upset. May play some P3s but only if I have fairly strong opinions on the other races. My bottom price for a win bet? 9-5. Some may laugh at that but I know when I have a strong opinion on a 9-5 or 2-1 horse that I will make money in the long run. These horses still win a high percentage of the races.
Type of race-To me the NW2 claimers are the most unpredictable, toughest races of all to beat. I usually pass them and only play them in a P3 or P4 if I have definitive opinions on the other races. Other races to avoid are races with too many first timers or layoff horses. In these cases, I figure the guys and women on the backside will know more than I will. The best races? Definitely stakes. Most of my biggest scores and longshots have come in stakes races. Stakes are one kind of race where even the longshots have pretty good form. All things being equal, I prefer routes to sprints.
Track conditions-I either avoid sloppy or muddy or cut back significantly on what I play. Soft turf presents some of the best opportunities in racing. Southern California may have great weather but fans that only play that circuit miss out on the great plays on soft or yielding turf. As for bias, generally the toughest tracks to beat are outside, stalker-closer friendly main tracks. I like Arlington, but it tends to be that way all meet. Tracks that occasionally come up outside are the toughest.