Canterbury

[dkbigsky]

Thought I would play the late pick 4 at Canterbury. :4: horse in the first leg has everyone outclassed and lone speed and chalky. I singled then went longer in the other races. Jock gets on the :4: out of the gate and is done by the 8th pole :5: comes up and smokes him. This game has to many variables.

[cj]

5.5f to a mile is quite a jump. 1-5 seems a bit overboard regardless of a class / speed edge.

[dkbigsky]

Ya it was a bad bet, I just couldn't see him losing. I thought he would nurse him around.

[thaskalos]

Don't be fooled by those cute doggie races that they run in-between their regularly scheduled horse races...Canterbury isn't a track to toy with. If you must wager there, bet only minimum amounts...lest you lose your sanity, along with your money.

[dkbigsky]

Thanks, I don't think Ill be back. Sometimes I wonder at some of the smaller tracks if there isn't some shady business going on. You win this race you let me win the next race. Los Alimitos was already on my list of don't plays. If I keep this up maybe I can get away from this time consumer called horse racing. Ha

[Track Phantom]

Sorry for the redboarding here. I know people hate that.

I had the late pick 4 for $1 last night. Canterbury (my home track for many years) can be a great track or a rotten track to play. There are elements that I like but I don't like that the betting is mostly spot on.

In the race you were talking about, with the #4 as the heavy favorite, I had that race 7,4,5,2 in my analysis. I thought the #4 was vulnerable, and in both of my pick 4 tickets I went 4 deep and got lucky with the 17-1 winner.

On the negative side, last week I played a pick 4: 3/3,4/ALL/ALL. The #3 won the first leg at 7-2. #4 won the second leg at 24-1. I got a 9-1 (from 10-1 morning line) in the third leg. I was certain I had the whole pool into the last leg. However, here were the numbers, morning line and pick 4 payouts if i can recall:

1: 5-1 morning line (off at 3-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
2: 8-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
3: 4-1 morning line (off at 9-2), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
4: 6-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
5: 2-1 morning line (off at 2-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
6: 3-1 morning line (off at 4-1), 1 ticket alive for $11,600 payout for .50c

So, how random is this? The two longest shots on the morning line, and at the off odds, pay the lowest in the p4. As luck would have it, the 6 led the entire way and was tagged late by the #4. I did hedge with the 2 and 4 winning and made an extra $1,000 in the race but it was still a tough pill to swallow. I think the win parlay was something like $12k.

[dkbigsky]

At least you hit something I have been in a slump for a while just cant seem to connect. I can have 4 out of 6 horses in the last leg of a pick 4 and the other 2 horses will run first and second. It will pass just gets frustrating sometimes.

[dkbigsky]

I am giving Canterbury one last chance Ha. I kind of like a few Longshots R3 I like the :5: and R4 I like the :3:

[JohnGalt1]

One advantage to playing a track you seldom play and are unfamiliar with is you can handicap with fresh a perspective.

I played Thistledown last week and won 2 of four win bets. I hadn't played it for years and knew almost nothing about it.

The disadvantage is being unfamiliar with the nuances of the track.

Tracks like Canterbury and Thistledown have one advantage for us is that the sharpies seldom play their races. On track betters are mostly $2.00 fun time betters is our competition.


My home track is Canterbury. Last year I made $850 for the meet. I like when locals and unfamiliar with Canterbury play.


However, last year my handle was down. They raised takeout from the one year experiment where handle grew 1% in 2016. On track handle was down 6%, and off track handle was up 3.5% which is what they wanted to increase.

They said they wanted AT LEAST A 5% total increase. They also blamed the weather when they lost many turf races. But shouldn't that have been a explanation why handle only grew 1% instead of the 5% with most turf races run.


This year I've noticed daily all source handle is usually between $500k-700k. And the Spring weather has sucked this year, which is a reason for lower handle.


My handle was also reduced last year because they converted the pick 5 to a sucker pick 5.


Rant over.

[GMB@BP]

Another thing it does is make you appreciate the better riders..I just bet this Sasha Risenhover, and man what a stiff job, 3 mistakes in one race and beaten a length.

lolz, she got put up by dq...was not deserved, should could not hold position more than the other horse coming in.

[Track Phantom]

My handle was also reduced last year because they converted the pick 5 to a sucker pick 5.
This is pretty true. They put all the small fields at the end of the card which makes it impossible to hit it alone. I don't blame the track for trying to find ways to promote their product but wish they would occasionally sprinkle in a playable sequence.

[Immortal6]

Another thing it does is make you appreciate the better riders..I just bet this Sasha Risenhover, and man what a stiff job, 3 mistakes in one race and beaten a length.

lolz, she got put up by dq...was not deserved, should could not hold position more than the other horse coming in.


May have been a poor ride in the race in question but Risenhoover is a pretty good jock for the level of competition she faces. She came into Fonner park a couple of years back and beat up on all the boys there.

[castaway01]

Tracks like Canterbury and Thistledown have one advantage for us is that the sharpies seldom play their races. On track betters are mostly $2.00 fun time betters is our competition.



Do any tracks other than Saratoga, Del Mar, or Keeneland have "$2 fun-time bettors" as any sizeable portion of the handle? I would think if I sat down to play a card at Canterbury that guys like you would be my main competition, people who knew a lot more than I did about Canterbury.

[thespaah]

Sorry for the redboarding here. I know people hate that.

I had the late pick 4 for $1 last night. Canterbury (my home track for many years) can be a great track or a rotten track to play. There are elements that I like but I don't like that the betting is mostly spot on.

In the race you were talking about, with the #4 as the heavy favorite, I had that race 7,4,5,2 in my analysis. I thought the #4 was vulnerable, and in both of my pick 4 tickets I went 4 deep and got lucky with the 17-1 winner.

On the negative side, last week I played a pick 4: 3/3,4/ALL/ALL. The #3 won the first leg at 7-2. #4 won the second leg at 24-1. I got a 9-1 (from 10-1 morning line) in the third leg. I was certain I had the whole pool into the last leg. However, here were the numbers, morning line and pick 4 payouts if i can recall:

1: 5-1 morning line (off at 3-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
2: 8-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
3: 4-1 morning line (off at 9-2), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
4: 6-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
5: 2-1 morning line (off at 2-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
6: 3-1 morning line (off at 4-1), 1 ticket alive for $11,600 payout for .50c

So, how random is this? The two longest shots on the morning line, and at the off odds, pay the lowest in the p4. As luck would have it, the 6 led the entire way and was tagged late by the #4. I did hedge with the 2 and 4 winning and made an extra $1,000 in the race but it was still a tough pill to swallow. I think the win parlay was something like $12k.

Good score.
And its not "redboarding" if you're just recapping a play to tell a story that others may find interesting.
I'm the opposite of most. I want everyone who bets to have good fortunes. I enjoy reading or hearing their accounts.

[thespaah]

Do any tracks other than Saratoga, Del Mar, or Keeneland have "$2 fun-time bettors" as any sizeable portion of the handle? I would think if I sat down to play a card at Canterbury that guys like you would be my main competition, people who knew a lot more than I did about Canterbury.

My guess is that tracks in small markets that have short meets, get much casual play.

[Thomas Roulston]

I'm waiting for them to run a 1 7/16-mile race out of that nub chute. They have already run 3 1/2-furlong races out of it.