Bravazo the only horse that scares me

[papillon]

I don't want to use him at all. I have 5 horses, which is enough.

He doesn't have the right energy distribution.

He has to be tired.

I got him completely wrong in the Derby. Not even same universe.

I got him wrong in the Preakness.

So what to do?

Going back over his PPs, I still have the same impression I did before the Derby. I am not seeing the "Aha! That's what I missed" element.

If Justify beats me, he beats me, but if Bravazo beats me...

[MadVindication]

Better start mentally preparing for the crush now if you plan on leaving Bravazo out of tris and supers.

[Mc990]

I think he'll be the biggest underlay in the race... and that's saying something

[Ribot Roboto]

I would like to leave him out because he’s probably due to run another clunker but I’ve got him near the top on other factors, one of which requires me to at least put him in 2nd-3rd on some tickets.

[clicknow]

I don't want to use him either and came here hoping to get talked off him.:D

I keep thinking he freaked on the mud/slop and I also do not like this being his 6th race.

If his odds were a lot higher, it would be worth it to me, but that will not be the case. He's beaten Snapper Sinclair at FG and Ezmosh at OP and is only 60% ITM overall..that's not very good compared to others in this race.

Thinking out loud here, Oxbow was Awesome Again's very first TC classic race winner. Hopes for Paynter the year before didn't happen. Ghostzapper, Awesome Gem never ran in the TC races; Game on Dude ran 4th in the Belmont Stakes.

The ability to sire classic distance horses is clearly there but I don't want to make the mistake of Bravazo= Oxbox or Paynter cuz despite being bred on the same cross, Bravazo comes from a different female line.

I'm sure as heck not putting all 3 RAN/NDs on my ticket so I will have to choose 1 or 2 of them and ditch one.

I have to think this over some more. I have to leave room for my 50-1 guy. :)

[Robert Fischer]

Bravazo is one one the coolest horses on the Triple Crown trail --> fruition

He's going to be perhaps 5.5/1, so I hope some of the 15/1 shots beat him.

[MadVindication]

Aside from not liking his odds, there's not more reason to leave Bravazo out than any other horse in the Belmont Mystery.

He didn't have a particularily hard or easy run in the KD and Preakness which I think bodes well for him in the next. Three weeks between races seems plenty of time for him. I think he's been well raced, not over-raced, so conditioned and experienced to tackle this marathon. I'd be more inclined to leave out Blended Citizen for having the run of his life in his race before the Belmont, tho some say it was an easy trip.

Justify is the superior runner and has winning grit, but I think he's inferior in fortitude to Bravazo. Which is why Bravazo is the most dangerous horse to Justify in this race.

I don't care to convince anyone on Bravazo, quite the opposite. but I really like him so like to discuss it. If he runs out of the super I will be pretty crushed but at least I can form a ticket that could pay me in the event of that happening.

Most importantly, Bravazo is the only horse I think would deserve to beat Justify. He's been in all Triple Crown races, a classic competitor. He has improved and outrun his odds. And if he beat Justify it would be in an "honest" way, not some stereotyped and overdone closing strategy.

As much as I want Justify to get the triple crown, if Bravazo were the one to beat him it wouldn't seem cheap and bittersweet as if the others "passed tiring Justify" (especially after watching him run one hell of a race as he certainly will).

[Mc990]

Aside from not liking his odds, there's not more reason to leave Bravazo out than any other horse in the Belmont Mystery.

He didn't have a particularily hard or easy run in the KD and Preakness which I think bodes well for him in the next. Three weeks between races seems plenty of time for him. I think he's been well raced, not over-raced, so conditioned and experienced to tackle this marathon. I'd be more inclined to leave out Blended Citizen for having the run of his life in his race before the Belmont, tho some say it was an easy trip.

Justify is the superior runner and has winning grit, but I think he's inferior in fortitude to Bravazo. Which is why Bravazo is the most dangerous horse to Justify in this race.

I don't care to convince anyone on Bravazo, quite the opposite. but I really like him so like to discuss it. If he runs out of the super I will be pretty crushed but at least I can form a ticket that could pay me in the event of that happening.

Most importantly, Bravazo is the only horse I think would deserve to beat Justify. He's been in all Triple Crown races, a classic competitor. He has improved and outrun his odds. And if he beat Justify it would be in an "honest" way, not some stereotyped and overdone closing strategy.

As much as I want Justify to get the triple crown, if Bravazo were the one to beat him it wouldn't seem cheap and bittersweet as if the others "passed tiring Justify" (especially after watching him run one hell of a race as he certainly will).

Quite a few assertions in here. I'll make a few too... Bravazo's odds will not be commensurate with his chances. That tends to happen when horses outrun their odds in triple crown races.

He's exactly the kind of horse you're supposed to fade.

Good luck

[MadVindication]

Quite a few assertions in here. I'll make a few too... Bravazo's odds will not be commensurate with his chances. That tends to happen when horses outrun their odds in triple crown races.

He's exactly the kind of horse you're supposed to fade.

Good luck

I know I'm not going to like his odds either. But my points were besides his betting value.

[LemonSoupKid]

I know I'm not going to like his odds either. But my points were besides his betting value.

The question which is almost as interesting is how P5 or P6 players should treat this horse. I don't like him and think as an odds play he is certainly a fade, but I also find that this seems like a good opportunity to beat a 4-5 horse as favorite. I like Hofburg a little more, but he'll be worse odds (I'm guessing) which evens him out as well in those multi-race wagers.

How would you guys play Hofburg or Bravazo in a pick 5, let's say, if you think the likelihood is that Justify doesn't win?

[Fightingirish51195]

I would like to leave him out because he’s probably due to run another clunker but I’ve got him near the top on other factors, one of which requires me to at least put him in 2nd-3rd on some tickets.

LA Derby was a throw away for me. Horse looked like he lost action for whatever reason. Look what Stevens did on the back stretch I believe

[jk3521]

Wouldn't it be great for "the coach" to win this one though?

[papillon]

Aside from not liking his odds, there's not more reason to leave Bravazo out than any other horse in the Belmont Mystery.

He didn't have a particularily hard or easy run in the KD and Preakness which I think bodes well for him in the next. Three weeks between races seems plenty of time for him. I think he's been well raced, not over-raced, so conditioned and experienced to tackle this marathon. I'd be more inclined to leave out Blended Citizen for having the run of his life in his race before the Belmont, tho some say it was an easy trip.

Justify is the superior runner and has winning grit, but I think he's inferior in fortitude to Bravazo. Which is why Bravazo is the most dangerous horse to Justify in this race.

I don't care to convince anyone on Bravazo, quite the opposite. but I really like him so like to discuss it. If he runs out of the super I will be pretty crushed but at least I can form a ticket that could pay me in the event of that happening.

Most importantly, Bravazo is the only horse I think would deserve to beat Justify. He's been in all Triple Crown races, a classic competitor. He has improved and outrun his odds. And if he beat Justify it would be in an "honest" way, not some stereotyped and overdone closing strategy.

As much as I want Justify to get the triple crown, if Bravazo were the one to beat him it wouldn't seem cheap and bittersweet as if the others "passed tiring Justify" (especially after watching him run one hell of a race as he certainly will).

Ah, the Steve Coburn argument: Tonalist the Fraud, Clement the Cheat.

Last night, TVG aired an hour of memorable Belmonts. Watching Victory Gallup beat Real Quiet again didn't really feel any less cheap or bittersweet despite knowing VG finished 2nd in both prior races.


The cheapest and bittersweetest actually was Easy Goer flying past Sunday Silence. Not one ounce of consolation did I feel watching it knowing Easy Goer had raced all 3 legs, even after all these years.

What will feel cheap and bittersweet for me, or maybe just bitter, no sweet, is if Justify wins the TC in the slop, and is not declared a slop horse. Beating Bolt on in snail time on a fast track, is neither here nor there.

I don't get the "wanting a horse to win the TC" sentiment. With Sunday, I wanted him more to beat Easy Goer than win the TC. But I'm odd I guess, I felt sorry for Birdstone. Poor little guy, all he did was win fair and square with some of the ugliest egg-beater leg action you'll ever see.

Anywho, I respect the sentiment nontheless, but it isn't really a sound wagering strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0E5oQvJoV4

I've always been struck by the coincidence that we had a TC winner after such a long time almost on cue 12 months after this tirade.

[clicknow]

Really enjoyed talking to everybody the last 2 weeks about the Belmont stakes, and getting candid (and genuine) thoughts.

After post positions come out, then all the "products" start coming out, that is when I hide under the covers chuckling as I watch all the predictions come in that look like regurgitations of whatever the talking heads and products and "expert" handicappers are "pushing" (often for a price).

So the last 2 weeks have been refreshing and fun with you guys.

[LemonSoupKid]

Really enjoyed talking to everybody the last 2 weeks about the Belmont stakes, and getting candid (and genuine) thoughts.

After post positions come out, then all the "products" start coming out, that is when I hide under the covers chuckling as I watch all the predictions come in that look like regurgitations of whatever the talking heads and products and "expert" handicappers are "pushing" (often for a price).

So the last 2 weeks have been refreshing and fun with you guys.

No doubt, great point.

You guys still haven't given any input on my P5 or P6 question though!

:confused: