" . . . we need Justify to wake up on the wrong side of the bed . . . "

[Blenheim]

Pletcher pays a fine compliment to Justify and his connections in this Handicapper's Edge article: http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/06/vino-rosso-noble-indy-breeze-belmont-stakes/

[Fager Fan]

Pletcher pays a fine compliment to Justify and his connections in this Handicapper's Edge article: http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/06/vino-rosso-noble-indy-breeze-belmont-stakes/

Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.

[clicknow]

Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.

This is why capping the Belmont Stakes is an entirely different exercize than looking at PPs for prep stakes races, and even the KY Derby or Preakness. Using the latter approach, Justify towers (actually sky-scrapers :p) over this field---by a huge margin.

Graveyard of champions indeed.

However, I think one has to have a better *reason* than one o' those historical angles (no different from *curses* we've talked about) to believe he can be beat.

[dilanesp]

This is why capping the Belmont Stakes is an entirely different exercize than looking at PPs for prep stakes races, and even the KY Derby or Preakness. Using the latter approach, Justify towers (actually sky-scrapers :p) over this field---by a huge margin.

Graveyard of champions indeed.

However, I think one has to have a better *reason* than one o' those historical angles (no different from *curses* we've talked about) to believe he can be beat.

It's not a curse. American Pharoah proved that.

It's a betting opportunity. TC attempts tend to go off at under even money, and it is highly likely that they are well below 50 percent probability.

That suggests there are possible overlays.

[clicknow]

That suggests there are possible overlays.

All anybody has to do is look at the prices from past to know that. Kinda obvious.

[GMB@BP]

Every prior horse who won the first 2 legs in the past three decades was thought to be unbeatable in the third leg. That proved untrue for all but one.

Certainly that is not the case on this website, 50% of people say he is a toss.

[dilanesp]

Certainly that is not the case on this website, 50% of people say he is a toss.

That's true, but on the other hand, I still think there's plenty of "rooting for the Triple Crown" around here, with people talking about Justify as if his form, how he looks in workouts, etc., makes him close to a cinch, when in fact the past record of TC attempts alone should make one at least say he could get beat, even if one thinks that ultimately he probably won't.

And just as an aside, I have really never understood rooting for the Triple Crown. One of the things I didn't like about Tom Durkin is he did it every damned time. He would be crying at the end of his Belmont Stakes calls, as if it was some horrible tragedy that a horse couldn't get a mile and a half. (And that sort of thing is especially bad for an on-track announcer, rather than on TV, when you consider there were plenty of bettors at the track who bet against the TC and don't need the announcer to be rooting that they lose their money.)

If the TC happens, it happens. If it doesn't, that's racing. There's no reason whatsoever to root for it unless you personally love Justify as a horse for some reason.

[GMB@BP]

If the TC happens, it happens. If it doesn't, that's racing. There's no reason whatsoever to root for it unless you personally love Justify as a horse for some reason.

For me and my friends Justify winning would be a pretty big deal.

I still bet though cold hearted based on what the race is giving me.

I think he is probably 55% to win based on all the factors.