Case for Noble Indy in the Belmont...

[letswastemoney]

I'm still working out my thoughts on him. But here are some positives...

- Few people believe he has a chance to win. He should be 30-1 or higher?

- If Justify doesn't like the distance, or pulls a Big Brown for any other reason...Noble Indy will be on the lead and in Da' Tara's spot in 2008.

- Already proven to handle a fast pace, although against lesser competition in the Louisiana Derby (the race did includ Bravazo).

Not sure how Winstar would feel in the winner's circle if it happened. I can't eliminate Noble Indy though, and because Repole is the majority owner, I assume they will really try to win this.

[clicknow]

is certainly more than "the rabbit" that some have designated him as. However he's a little light in stamina on the Dam side, but strong on sire side. I was also thinking of using him in a few exotics since he won't lose connection to the field, just not sure if he will make it around that 2nd turn or not and still be forwardly placed. I'm a big Tenfold fan so not sure where I can "fit" Noble Indy.

[f2tornado]

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

[clicknow]

There are also certainly horses who have never won a stakes race who have won the BELMONT, i.e. Hofburg, Restoring Hope, Tenfold.

[LemonSoupKid]

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

Speaking of that, do we have final 3/8 and quarters for these runners (KY Derby and/or Preakness)?

[Spalding No!]

is certainly more than "the rabbit" that some have designated him as. However he's a little light in stamina on the Dam side, but strong on sire side. I was also thinking of using him in a few exotics since he won't lose connection to the field, just not sure if he will make it around that 2nd turn or not and still be forwardly placed. I'm a big Tenfold fan so not sure where I can "fit" Noble Indy.
There's quite a bit of stamina deep in the pedigree:

Noble Indy's 5th dam is Impetuous Lady. The great Canadian breeder EP Taylor, who produced Northern Dancer, got two stamina-laden fillies from her named Regal Gal and Impetuous Gal, both of whom won 10 furlong stakes.

The former produced 10-12 furlong horse Holy Mountain as well as the good Stronach mare Relaxing Rhthym, who in turn produced recent route horses Spring Waltz and Winning Rhythm.

The latter produced the outstanding racemare Banker's Lady (won up to 10f), who herself produced Peter Pan winner Banker's Gold. Another daughter produced recent Grade 1 router Daisy Devine and still another produced Ecton Park who won both the Super Derby (G1, 10f) and the Jim Dandy.

[PowerUpPaynter]

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

Noble Indy was right on a blazing fast pace and still has enough to hold on. It was a similar performance to Battle Of Midway in the Santa Anita Derby but better cause he won.

[Fightingirish51195]

Not only did noble Indy survive fast fractions, the horse completely ran against it that day. Noble Indy’s last race is a throw away for me. I think this horse has a big chance

[clicknow]

Noble Indy was right on a blazing fast pace and still has enough to hold on. It was a similar performance to Battle Of Midway in the Santa Anita Derby but better cause he won.

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

[jocko699]

Not only did noble Indy survive fast fractions, the horse completely ran against it that day. Noble Indy’s last race is a throw away for me. I think this horse has a big chance

Than again it was the La Derby so...……………………………….

[papillon]

The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.

I liked him for the derby to be honest. Way back, I made a post about how I mapped out where, in an ideal scenario, all of the horses would be in the Derby between 6f and 9f, and had him and Mendelssohn together on the front. The irony is that they ran right beside each other for almost the entire Derby and finished 18th and 20th. I got their parity right at least :pout:

Anywho, he fits the Belmont pretty well. He, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, and Hofburg are the horses that have shown the ability consistently to run flat pace lines. His pedigree isn't as strong as Restoring Hope's, whose is insane, Vino Rosso's, whose is great, or Hofburg's, whose is very good, but it's no worse than Justify's.

Horses on the front do pretty well in the Belmont, counterintuitively. If he was running in Windstar silks I'd have greater reservations, but he's running in Repole silks, and Repole wants to win, probablly more so with Vino Rosso, than with Noble Indy, but not by a ridiculous amount, and a 1-2 finish would make his year.

[letswastemoney]

Than again it was the La Derby so...……………………………….Louisiana Derby looking better as time goes on! My Boy Jack 5th in the Derby, and Bravazo 6th in the Derby and 2nd in Preakness.

Even Lone Sailor almost caught up with the leading group in the Preakness. Only lost by 2 lengths or so.

[jocko699]

Louisiana Derby looking better as time goes on! My Boy Jack 5th in the Derby, and Bravazo 6th in the Derby and 2nd in Preakness.

Even Lone Sailor almost caught up with the leading group in the Preakness. Only lost by 2 lengths or so.

MBJ was ridden bad in the LD, otherwise he wins the race. NI, LS benefitted from that bad ride. Bravazo had absolutely no excuse in the Preakness and raced as well as he ever will in the company of Justify. None will beat Justify next week unless as I stated early he breaks from Aqueduct.

[Fightingirish51195]

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

Will have to see post positions. Noble Indy does not need the lead to win. However you don’t really want to let justify go because then your playing with Fire.

[Ribot Roboto]

Well if Restoring Hope is Baffert's answer to Noble Indy i.e. to keep NI busy so Justify doesn't have to, then who knows what will happen to either of them.

What is Justify going to be doing while those two keep each other busy? Or do they engage behind him?

[clicknow]

Will have to see post positions.

A mile and 1/2 race, post positions are not very potent angle IMHO. I usually don't even consider them in the BEL. Horses have plenty of time to get position in a race this long. Being on correct lead, efficient running style, so they can best use heart/oxygen/fitness to motor by others in the final stretch, really all that matters.

[Ribot Roboto]

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

[Robert Fischer]

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

dartboard approach?

[Ribot Roboto]

Nah. Pedigree.

[clicknow]

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

None of those are on my win list, either.

I dunno about trifecta/superfectas though. I have 1 or 2 of those in for 4th on my ticket construction.

[LemonSoupKid]

None of those are on my win list, either.

I dunno about trifecta/superfectas though. I have 1 or 2 of those in for 4th on my ticket construction.

You guys are trying to get paid too much, basically you have Blended Citizen

Tossing Justify, Vino Rosso and Hofburg, let alone the others, makes your win hit something like 5%

Seems like odd handicapping to me, or at least something you're only putting $.10 on.

[jocko699]

Will have to see post positions. Noble Indy does not need the lead to win. However you don’t really want to let justify go because then your playing with Fire.

Lol post positions

[Ribot Roboto]

I’m not trying to get paid, just trying to find the winner. Notice besides not tossing Blended Citizen I also didn’t toss Tenfold or Bravazo. No chance for those guys?

[Fightingirish51195]

Lol post positions

I could see the strategy for noble Indy’s connections changing depending on post position. That’s all I’m saying. Maybe I’m wrong. There strategy might vary if they draw the one whole as compared it to if they get the 5 hole and justify is in the 1 hole

[Ribot Roboto]

I’m not sure if post positions are critical in the Belmont except for who draws where relative to those with similar running styles, just as in any race. Justify and Noble Indy both think they’re supposed to be in front for example, whereas if they’re separated by several other horses, the speed dual in the former scenario may never materialize and Justify waltzes around the track.

[SkunkApe]

I’m not trying to get paid, just trying to find the winner. Notice besides not tossing Blended Citizen I also didn’t toss Tenfold or Bravazo. No chance for those guys?

I’m kind of liking it...

[Ribot Roboto]

Hah I can’t help it if the ones I like have slightly better odds. Except for Bravazo anyway. Odds are the last thing I look at, only after I’m done handicapping, and only then to decide whether and how much to bet on the one(s) I already liked. People that pick horses based on odds are soon parted with their money if you know what I mean.

[clicknow]

You guys are trying to get paid too much, basically you have Blended Citizen

Tossing Justify, Vino Rosso and Hofburg, let alone the others, makes your win hit something like 5%

Seems like odd handicapping to me, or at least something you're only putting $.10 on.

I can't see how Ribot's not choosing justify, vino, hofburg, noble indy. restoring Hope, or Gronkowski to win the BEL is at all far-fetched.

It leaves him 4-5 other horses to choose from for win candidates if we get 11 runners..... :confused:


He has already stated that he is choosing based on pedigree.

Again, this is why horses like Exaggerator go off as chalky favorites and run 11th, and why most people didn't have Creator, Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice, Tonalist w/Commissioner, etc. (cuz let's face it, ANYBODY who was a pedigree type handicapper would not have left 28-1 Commissioner off their ticket.....but the betting public did). Ditto Dale Romans's Medal Count who also went off at huge odds.

[LemonSoupKid]

Hah I can’t help it if the ones I like have slightly better odds. Except for Bravazo anyway. Odds are the last thing I look at, only after I’m done handicapping, and only then to decide whether and how much to bet on the one(s) I already liked. People that pick horses based on odds are soon parted with their money if you know what I mean.

Fair enough.

Roboto, what do you have against Hofburg?

[f2tornado]

Fair enough.

Roboto, what do you have against Hofburg?

This. He's using a couple I also have but not liking Hofburg who tops my checklist and that's before looking at secondary angles.

Primary angles:
Fast final 3/8th - check (Florida Derby)
Buckpasser-x - check x2
Close enough to front - check (only 3 1/2 back at 6F pole in fast early Florida Derby)
Conduit mare - check (Dazzling in tail female)

Secondary angles:
Dosage less than 4.00 - check (2.78)
Belmont winning rider - check (Ortiz)
Skipped the Preakness - check
Tapit (if not Raise A Native) - check
Not a pure front runner - check (I believe the only other E/P7 or E8 type horse to win in last 16 years was American Pharoah.)

[clicknow]

People that pick horses based on odds are soon parted with their money if you know what I mean.

And sometimes, as are people who are handicapping using speed figs, pace figs, connection to filed and closing fractions, etc. based on what are primarily middle distances horses and what they did in middle distance races.

[clicknow]

In other words, to quote an excellent article on Bloodhorse by Craig I read a few years ago:

"The Belmont Stakes is a unique race, 12 furlongs on dirt, and as such it should not be surprising that traditional handicapping methods do not work very well. The most solid conclusion that can be drawn is that the pace will be average-to-fast; it has been slow only once in the last 11 runnings of the race. Pace analysis generally favors speed horses when the pace is slow and off-pace runners when the pace is fast. But those rules do not appear to apply to the Belmont. Likewise, speed figures earned in races at distances spanning nine to 10 furlongs rarely indicate what a horse can run at 12 furlongs, just as a six furlong speed figure doesn’t mean all that much at a mile"

Perfect!


Only thing I would have liked added to this advice is, while saying traditional handicapping methods do not work very well, he did not offer an opinion of what (if any) other methods do work. ;) It's probably in an article I missed somewhere.

What else I thought was interesting, as an aside, was an article by Andy Beyer who said: "Beyer Speed Figures, which measure how fast a horse has run in each of his races, provide a graphic example of American racehorses’ unsuitability to the 1½-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes."

:D Basically, he is saying his figures for 1-1/2 are suitable but the American racehorse isn't. :lol:

[Ribot Roboto]

I don't dislike Hofburg, I just don't like him very much in this race. In the derby you need some stamina but this race is different. In the Belmont I look for a different kind of pedigree; the kind that makes me think they can run all day. They might not be that fast but I look for the ones that'll still be chugging along at the end and I don't see that in him. To each his own. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong but I can't bet on an underlay I have doubts about.

[GMB@BP]

In other words, to quote an excellent article on Bloodhorse by Craig I read a few years ago:

"The Belmont Stakes is a unique race, 12 furlongs on dirt, and as such it should not be surprising that traditional handicapping methods do not work very well. The most solid conclusion that can be drawn is that the pace will be average-to-fast; it has been slow only once in the last 11 runnings of the race. Pace analysis generally favors speed horses when the pace is slow and off-pace runners when the pace is fast. But those rules do not appear to apply to the Belmont. Likewise, speed figures earned in races at distances spanning nine to 10 furlongs rarely indicate what a horse can run at 12 furlongs, just as a six furlong speed figure doesn’t mean all that much at a mile"

Perfect!


Only thing I would have liked added to this advice is, while saying traditional handicapping methods do not work very well, he did not offer an opinion of what (if any) other methods do work. ;) It's probably in an article I missed somewhere.

What else I thought was interesting, as an aside, was an article by Andy Beyer who said: "Beyer Speed Figures, which measure how fast a horse has run in each of his races, provide a graphic example of American racehorses’ unsuitability to the 1½-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes."

:D Basically, he is saying his figures for 1-1/2 are suitable but the American racehorse isn't. :lol:

This is why I say, if Justify does not win, the proven best horse at "normal" distances that you can pick them out of a hat. There is no real rhyme or reason to handicap this race.

[Fightingirish51195]

I don't dislike Hofburg, I just don't like him very much in this race. In the derby you need some stamina but this race is different. In the Belmont I look for a different kind of pedigree; the kind that makes me think they can run all day. They might not be that fast but I look for the ones that'll still be chugging along at the end and I don't see that in him. To each his own. Some of us will be right and some will be wrong but I can't bet on an underlay I have doubts about.

I hear ya. It’s kind of why I’m high on Bravazo. I just think he can run all day

[The Biscuit]

What is Justify going to be doing while those two keep each other busy? Or do they engage behind him?


Your top 3 horses to win ?

[Ribot Roboto]

I hear ya. It’s kind of why I’m high on Bravazo. I just think he can run all day

THAT is the key.

[Ribot Roboto]

Your top 3 horses to win ?

Well I’m sure everyone knows I’m high on BC. I haven’t really started putting together a ticket yet but I’ve already stated elsewhere who won’t be on it anywhere.

[clicknow]

Your top 3 horses to win ?

What are yours?