a lot to like about Vino Rosso here...

[dilanesp]

1. Pletcher knows how to win this race.
2. Pletcher is deadly with the 5 weeks spacing between races.
3. Horse has 2 wins in NY including the Wood.
4. Bred to go 1 1/2 miles- by Curlin (2nd beaten a nose in the Belmont), Touch Gold (Belmont winner) on the female side along with 1 1/2 mile horses Street Cry and Giant's Causeway. Dam is a half to Commissioner, who lost a photo finish in the Belmont.
5. Will run from off the pace should get a pick-up-the-pieces trip if Justify tires.

[Robert Fischer]

looks to be clearly the next best horse in the race after Justify, and he won't be 2nd choice in the betting. :ThmbUp:

Race-flow and pace is a concern. :ThmbDown:

[GMB@BP]

looks to be clearly the next best horse in the race after Justify, and he won't be 2nd choice in the betting. :ThmbUp:

Race-flow and pace is a concern. :ThmbDown:

I think he is second choice, but maybe I am giving to much credit for the amount of money the gen public wagers on this day.

[Fred Mertz]

Guess where his owners are from?


Yes, New Yawkers.

[Robert Fischer]

I think he is second choice, but maybe I am giving to much credit for the amount of money the gen public wagers on this day.

Bravazo is going to be 2nd choice.

Wayyyy too much cognitive dissonance for anything else.

He finished ahead of Vino Rosso in the Derby(that alone makes it very tough for the public to say that he isn't better than Vino Rosso), and then he finished 2nd to Justify in the Preakness (that makes the public think he is a prime candidate for 2nd in the Belmont), and he finished only a 1/2 Length behind Justify in the Preakness (reinforces the idea that he's the clear 2nd best, and some people feel that Bravazo 'almost won' the Preakness or was a 1/2 length away from winning the Preakness).


Bravazo will be a clear 2nd choice.


Then you've got Hofburg who will be a very hot 'wiseguy' horse. (Wiseguy in the contemporary sense that he's got a few obvious positives and the public has already committed to betting him regardless of the fact that their action is going to result in an underlay(see My Boy Jack KYD-- - Not in the older meaning that he's some under-the-radar contrarian choice that only certain handicappers will figure out).
Hofburg had that dream trip in the Florida Derby which gave him a 2nd place finish to the loved Audible. He then had a delayed trip behind traffic in the Derby and closed fairly well into a great setup for a belated 7th(Obvious traffic always triggers bettors), and he was continued to be ridden through the gallop-out which he won(when a horse wins the gallop out and stretches out he takes money).

Vino Rosso should be a reasonable price unless unexpectedly heavy sharp money comes in for him. It would surprise me if he were 2nd choice.

[Redboard]

Been working lights out too! Lot to love about this guys chances, but, as we all know it's all about the price.

[garyscpa]

Guess where his owners are from?


Yes, New Yawkers.

We won't hold that against him. :)

[classhandicapper]

He'll be on my tickets.

[papillon]

1. Pletcher knows how to win this race.
2. Pletcher is deadly with the 5 weeks spacing between races.
3. Horse has 2 wins in NY including the Wood.
4. Bred to go 1 1/2 miles- by Curlin (2nd beaten a nose in the Belmont), Touch Gold (Belmont winner) on the female side along with 1 1/2 mile horses Street Cry and Giant's Causeway. Dam is a half to Commissioner, who lost a photo finish in the Belmont.
5. Will run from off the pace should get a pick-up-the-pieces trip if Justify tires.


6. Johnny V, he can give him the same exact ride as he did Rags to Riches and Union Rags, and big Money Mike can give Justify the same ride he did Paynter...

7. Almost ideal energy distribution and ability to run a flat pace line.

Unfortunately, he will likely be second in the betting, no higher than 3rd I wouldn't think.

[clicknow]

I'm not sure about Vino Rosso yet. On paper, he's got the goods. After I heard about his "extreme nerves" before the KY Derby, (shaking, etc.) then the fact that Pletcher said they were still scooping mud out of his eye sockets and nose for 3 days afterwards, I have to give some consideration to the "emotional conformation" of this horse and probably observe him in the paddock and post parade first. This is one of those things that numbers and PPs won't help with, but somebody like Kerry Thomas would understand. I have to know this horse is "keen to race" again after his bad exerpeinces of late. Horses do remember stuff.

A toss for the win however.

[PhantomOnTour]

He was my 2nd choice in the Derby, and immediately after I told a friend that he'd be the one to deny Justify the Triple Crown in the Belmont.
Let's hope so

[metro]

I'm not sure about Vino Rosso yet. On paper, he's got the goods. After I heard about his "extreme nerves" before the KY Derby, (shaking, etc.) then the fact that Pletcher said they were still scooping mud out of his eye sockets and nose for 3 days afterwards, I have to give some consideration to the "emotional conformation" of this horse and probably observe him in the paddock and post parade first. This is one of those things that numbers and PPs won't help with, but somebody like Kerry Thomas would understand. I have to know this horse is "keen to race" again after his bad exerpeinces of late. Horses do remember stuff.

A toss for the win however.

Here is a link to Kerry Thomas' 2018 Derby report. Some interesting comments about Vino Rosso.

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT_PatternsOfMotion_KD144%20(4).pdf

[clicknow]

Here is a link to Kerry Thomas' 2018 Derby report. Some interesting comments about Vino Rosso.

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT_PatternsOfMotion_KD144%20(4).pdf

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

[papillon]

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

Has Thomas gotten anything right since he stumbled upon Animal Kingdom, it was Animal Kingdom right?

If Vino Rosso was freaked out, Johnny was able to get him to relax pretty impressively straight out of the gate. He was able to get and hold mid-pack all the way around, relying on the very thing that you have to, to win the Belmont, the ability to run evenly at given rate for a route of ground. And this is despite Johnny saying he never took hold of the surface.

Your point is taken though, horses have memories. If an experience is bad enough, it ruins them.

For me, I see his Derby as half full, not half empty. With little urgining at all, he maintained position despite physical and pyschological conditions that were clearly difficult for him.

[Robert Fischer]

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶
step 2 toss the bums B̶A̶N̶D̶U̶A̶, F̶R̶E̶E̶ ̶D̶R̶O̶P̶ ̶B̶I̶L̶L̶Y̶
step 3 work backwards from the pace scenarios

FAIR RACE
:1:ST JUSTIFY
:2:ND VINO ROSSO
:3:RD TENFOLD, BLENDED CITIZEN, SEAHENGE, GRONKOWSKI
....

EXTREME FORWARD FAVORING
:1:ST JUSTIFY
:2:ND TENFOLD, NOBLE INDY, RESTORING HOPE
:3:RD VINO ROSSO
....

TIRING RIVALS
:1:ST JUSTIFY
:2:ND VINO ROSSO
:3:RD BLENDED CITIZEN, GRONKOWSKI, SEAHENGE

[clicknow]

step 2 toss the bums B̶A̶N̶D̶U̶A̶, F̶R̶E̶E̶ ̶D̶R̶O̶P̶ ̶B̶I̶L̶L̶Y̶

Leaving Free Drop Billy off trifecta/superfecta would be a mistake, IMHO. I guess I am one of the few people (if there are any at all!) who like him.

I don't think Bandua is coming, so no comment on him for now.

[Robert Fischer]

Leaving Free Drop Billy off trifecta/superfecta would be a mistake, IMHO. I guess I am one of the few people (if there are any at all!) who like him.

FDB should be a nice price, so if you like anything about him have to use him. :ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

Shows you how much I know everytime FDB runs I keep thinking he should turn back, yet they keep sending him further. gotta trust Romans I guess.

[Robert Fischer]

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶

Hofburg scares me a little.

His 'price' is going to be really bad. He may even be 3rd choice in here. Not as bad as My Boy Jack, but he's kind of going to be the 'My Boy Jack' of the Belmont betting action. Thank goodness his name isn't a little bit more catchy.

But there's a reasonable chance that he's thriving.
He was a key for me in the Florida Derby. I had him running better than Promises Fulfilled on Fountain of Youth day. I REALLY liked that win from the wide post vs. Just Whistle. His value was supposed to be 'ripe'. Then Hofburg's price in the Florida Derby was worse than I had hoped. He was fifth-choice but only about 9/1. Exacta and Superfecta were just 'OK'.

He got a DREAM trip in the Florida Derby and didn't really move forward. Yet, now everyone was singing his praises.

Traffic in the Derby, but he got a belated trip into closer-friendly late flow. He did show good energy. He won the gallop-out but part of that was jockey frustration from being bottled up while having enough horse to finish 4th or 5th.
Now his value is very poor. Hes the horse casual players are going to gravitate to from the new faces. I've already seen Bob Neumeier picking him on top, and Jeff Sigel, John White, and Dick Jerardi picking him 2nd in the early wagering guide.

He's logical and he has 'trouble' lines on form, but we don't really know that he's any better than say Tenfold, Blended Citizen or Seahenge, but he'll be a lower price.

Usually the type of horse I exclude.

Have to consider grudgingly including Hofburg if I'm not willing to sacrifice hit% for value.

[LemonSoupKid]

Hofburg scares me a little.

He's logical and he has 'trouble' lines on form, but we don't really know that he's any better than say Tenfold, Blended Citizen or Seahenge, but he'll be a lower price.

Usually the type of horse I exclude.

Have to consider grudgingly including Hofburg if I'm not willing to sacrifice hit% for value.

I like him but totally agree with you. The most skittish thing for me about him is that he hasn't won a legit (graded) race.

I was talking to Roman the other day and he has always liked the pedigree, but he doesn't necessarily like 3x3 for him here out of AP Indy. Maybe it's too close of a genetic convergence? Not sure.

Right now the most interesting horses for me are:

Hofburg, for reasons above, and I also don't like the wise guy type odds we'll see, like you

Vino Rosso, because of Pletcher, G1 win and the Preakness skip

Blended Citizen, for many reasons, including rest and track

Noble Indy, for forward placement or pace reasons, as well as 40-1+

:popcorn:

Horses like Bravazo seem like a fade the public classic

[metro]

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

Thomas' comments about the filtration process and how the longer distance races will allow him to "filter and dial in" were what I found interesting. Agree that he's not a win type but if we get an American Pharoah type performance from Justify, Vinno Rosso could be the Keen Ice plodding type to help fill out the exotics.

[clicknow]

Thomas' comments about the filtration process and how the longer distance races will allow him to "filter and dial in" were what I found interesting. Agree that he's not a win type but if we get an American Pharoah type performance from Justify, Vinno Rosso could be the Keen Ice plodding type to help fill out the exotics.

I guess I have to stick him on my ticket somewhere---I'll be kicking myself for doing it and kicking myself for not doing it. :D

[clicknow]

Vino Rosso, because of Pletcher, G1 win and the Preakness skip

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot. :)

[clicknow]

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶


Vino Rosso will be an underlay pretty shortly once the talking heads start in with their predictions.

[LemonSoupKid]

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot. :)

My mistake, I meant a major graded stakes race (Wood)

[MadVindication]

Hofburg scares me a little.

His 'price' is going to be really bad. He may even be 3rd choice in here. Not as bad as My Boy Jack, but he's kind of going to be the 'My Boy Jack' of the Belmont betting action. Thank goodness his name isn't a little bit more catchy.



:D He has "Giacomo" kind of name. It would be humorous to hear the annoucer call his name in the same fashion, out of nowhere. "Aaaaand it's Hofburg"

[MadVindication]

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot. :)

I don't trust the Graded race ratings for 3 year-olds. Have to look at those races very specifically IMO. Good horses lost to lesser horses, all those races are mixed bags with horses with capabilites that were/are just showing.

[Robert Fischer]

:D He has "Giacomo" kind of name. It would be humorous to hear the annoucer call his name in the same fashion, out of nowhere. "Aaaaand it's Hofburg"

I can picture that. :popcorn:

"Justify in the lead, he's going to have to DIG DEEP!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLOSING THE GAP,
Bravazo 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG! HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD!!!"

[Robert Fischer]

I like Vino Rosso, but I have to be honest. I don't know for sure.

He's got some of the most ambiguous form.

The Tampa races were both extremely slow paces/forward-favoring-flows that hurt him.

The Wood was a dream trip that exaggerated his ability.

The Derby looks like a race you draw a line through.

He works in the morning like he's the best 3yo in the TAP barn, but I'd take all the money I've lost on workouts, over all the winnings I've had on workouts, in a heartbeat...

[jay68802]

It could be this:

"Justify in the lead, he's going to have to DIG DEEP!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLOSING THE GAP,
Bravazo 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG? HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD???"

:)

[MadVindication]

:lol: Gronkowski is a name that suits the situation too. But I think the announcer would say "and it's Jose Ortiz on the Gronk"

[Robert Fischer]

It could be this:

"Justify in the lead, he's going to have to DIG DEEP!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLOSING THE GAP,
Bravazo 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG? HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD???"

:)


:lol:

why not go all the way


"And JUSTIFY enters the stretch to the roar of 90,000!”
but he's going to have to EARN IT today!
The whip is out on JUSTIFY!!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
It's been 3 yearsss! And it's just one furlong away!!
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLO-SING-THE-GAP,
They're coming down to the finish!
Can Justify hold on!?
GRONK 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG? HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD???"
:confused:
HOF-BURG... WINS... THE... BEL-MONT... STAKES... :(

[MadVindication]

That would be a terrible outcome. Good thing it won't happen. Potential big pay day aside, such a winning ticket would be bittersweet.