it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire

[boys at tosconova]

what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's

[GMB@BP]

what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

I think there are 3 clear contenders that the public will latch onto

Hoffberg (watch the gallop out in the Derby! He had trouble, would have won crowd)

Vino Rosso - Plodder that should love 12 furlong crowd

Bravazzo - The coach is just getting him right, he would have won a longer race crowd.

Probably be a drop down a bit to Tenfold.

After that I think the odds and chances get a little fuzzy.

[Mc990]

A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO

[GMB@BP]

A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO

If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

[Mc990]

If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

[GMB@BP]

I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?

[Mc990]

So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?

To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...

[f2tornado]

I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

Perhaps a reasonable comparison is the 2014 Belmont where Chrome making a crown bid was 4/5, Wicked Strong 5-1, three in the 8 to 9-1 range, then your 20-1+ types. I figure Vino fits that 8-1 mold.

what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's

True. I can make a reasonable case for most of the field to hit the trifecta. I guess for now I'll plan on Justify and Indy to duke it out setting up shop for Vino, Hofburg, and perhaps even Blended Citizen. Maybe those three over themselves over all. The buck version would cost around $40 total with a shot at four figures like what Tonalist provided in 2014.

[GMB@BP]

To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...

Without the PP's and the field all this is a bit tough.

The way I see it though, from a betting perspective.

1) Justify does not handle the distance
2) Justify just as had a lot of racing and is tired

If you believe either 1 or 2 then its a tremendous betting opportunity.

So if you pitch Justify you are really only left with about 4 or 5 horses that can win.

Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.

I think though if you are against Justify you need to kill this race as the horizontal and vertical wagers will pay exponentially better than just a slight value play.

[Redboard]

Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BelmontStakes18.pdf

Just to add to the confusion, here are bris' running style category which I extracted, from speed to closer. I don't agree with Justify's E8, and a few others. E8 is a horse who absolutely has to be on the lead, I wouldn't put him in that category.

E8 : Justify
E/P 5 : Bravazo, Noble Indy, Tenfold
E/P 4 : Restoring Hope
P2 : Hofburg
P1 : Free Drop Billy
S3 : Vino Rosso
S2 : Blended Citizen
Gronkowski (NA)

I always believed that the Belmont is won by the horse who can relax and settle into his running style.


Anybody like Gronk? fair odds?

[thaskalos]

Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BelmontStakes18.pdf


How does Hofburg lose this race?

[Redboard]

...
Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.
…...



25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?

[GMB@BP]

25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?

3/1 estimated chances....goes off at 5/1, fair enough value if ones into that kind of thing.

[PoloUK6108]

Repoles and Hofburg.

Would love to see Gronk get revenge for Chad :D the racing world would implode.

[Boris]

How does Hofburg lose this race?

6F in 1:13
1M in 1:38

[Robert Fischer]

If Justify doesn't fire, I have no idea what will happen.

Much easier to predict who will fill out the superfecta behind Justify if he does fire.

It's not going to be a 'jackpot' with Justify on top.

The public is going to bet Bravazo and Hofburg under Justify, so if your opinion is genuinely different than that, you should have a decent opportunity for value.

[clicknow]

The public is going to bet Bravazo and Hofburg under Justify

I hope you are right about this. Sounds about right to me.

[LemonSoupKid]

I hope you are right about this. Sounds about right to me.

I like fading the fast closing Bravazo in this one on your basis, though he does have a slightly better distance pedigree than most; I tend to think it'll be Hofburg and Blended Citizen as the main challengers near the finish.

Is Blended Citizen the only winner of a race at Belmont in this field?

[clicknow]

I like fading the fast closing Bravazo in this one on your basis, though he does have a slightly better distance pedigree than most; I tend to think it'll be Hofburg and Blended Citizen as the main challengers near the finish.

Is Blended Citizen the only winner of a race at Belmont in this field?

I like Blended and Hofburg (but don't think either can win) and Bravazo other than his most recent romp in slop at Preakness really isn't a very accomplished horse and he's had enough races to prove that. Blended does seem to like the BEL track but will have to watch hofburg gallops. Tenfold looks awesome and we haven't seen Bandua yet.

[papillon]

I like Blended and Hofburg (but don't think either can win) and Bravazo other than his most recent romp in slop at Preakness really isn't a very accomplished horse and he's had enough races to prove that. Blended does seem to like the BEL track but will have to watch hofburg gallops. Tenfold looks awesome and we haven't seen Bandua yet.

Bandua is going to race in The Queen's Vase (or something like that) instead from what I saw on HRN.

Bravazo has run the following pattern: 1 bad race, 3 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, so will the Belmont be a 3rd good race or a bad one?

The horses that win the Belmont have very flat running lines, with gradual decelaration. The ideal horse was Secretariat, because his natural rhythm was consecutive 24s, Pharoah was a good Belmont horse because he had a similar, though slower, natural rhythm. Union Rags, though a snail, also had the right running pattern too.

Its not primarily a pedigee race, its a rhythm race. The fastest horse with the flatest pace line wins. After the flat paced horses are identified, adding in pedigree and jockey can help refine choices.

I haven't gone through all of the horses yet, but I went through the four I was most curious about: Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, and Bravazo. Blended Citizen is out. Bravazo is still a cipher. Tenfold is very strong, as is Vino Rosso.

Vinno Rosso's pedigree is the best in the field, Curlin over Street Cry, he has the best jockey for the race, he's fresh, and his owner actually wants to win. I think trainer is less important, but Pletcher is probably the best for this race.

Tenfold has a good pedigree for the distance. Assmussen said he's going to breeze him slowly, 1:01 to get him in the right frame of mind, which is the best strategy.

Tenfold fits the winner style better than Vino Rosso, but Johnny V is a no small thing.

Edit--Restoring Hope looked interesting, he's a Giant's Causway, and when there are two Baffert's in a race, bet the one with longer odds.

[Fightingirish51195]

I think a lot of horses can win this race. Obviously justify. Ive made cases for Bravazo and noble Indy.

I wouldn’t count out Blended Citizen. He’s got the breeding. Doug O’neil is dangerous. This horse can run a winning race.

[clicknow]

I will probably bet against Justify for the win on a few tickets.

Right now, I like Bandua, Bravazo, Tenfold and.... Free Drop Billy for top part.

FDB seems to go way under the radar but he has never been out of the money except in the BC Juvie and the KY Derby (which I am not holding against ANY horse). In the Bluegrass he was making quite a bit of headway in the stretch when that other horse drifted sharply over and really almost ran into him.....looks like he will like 1-1/2 on his breeding.

[Fightingirish51195]

Wow, I watched Blended Citizens workout. He’s physically impressive. Late developer. He’s going to run big

[papillon]

Bandua is going to race in The Queen's Vase (or something like that) instead from what I saw on HRN.

Bravazo has run the following pattern: 1 bad race, 3 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, so will the Belmont be a 3rd good race or a bad one?

The horses that win the Belmont have very flat running lines, with gradual decelaration. The ideal horse was Secretariat, because his natural rhythm was consecutive 24s, Pharoah was a good Belmont horse because he had a similar, though slower, natural rhythm. Union Rags, though a snail, also had the right running pattern too.

Its not primarily a pedigee race, its a rhythm race. The fastest horse with the flatest pace line wins. After the flat paced horses are identified, adding in pedigree and jockey can help refine choices.

I haven't gone through all of the horses yet, but I went through the four I was most curious about: Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, and Bravazo. Blended Citizen is out. Bravazo is still a cipher. Tenfold is very strong, as is Vino Rosso.

Vinno Rosso's pedigree is the best in the field, Curlin over Street Cry, he has the best jockey for the race, he's fresh, and his owner actually wants to win. I think trainer is less important, but Pletcher is probably the best for this race.

Tenfold has a good pedigree for the distance. Assmussen said he's going to breeze him slowly, 1:01 to get him in the right frame of mind, which is the best strategy.

Tenfold fits the winner style better than Vino Rosso, but Johnny V is a no small thing.

Edit--Restoring Hope looked interesting, he's a Giant's Causway, and when there are two Baffert's in a race, bet the one with longer odds.


I finally went over all of the PPS. When I wrote the above, the PPs I was thinking were Tenfold's were actually Hofburg's. Hofburg has the right running style, Tenfold doesn't. :(
I haven't decided how I am going to handle this. Tenfold should be kicked off the ticket but I really like this horse. Hofburg should be on the ticket but money starts to become an issue.

Here are the horses who have the best lines for this race: Noble Indy, Restoring Hope, Vinno Rosso, Hofburg, and Seahenge. Restoring Hope and Vino Rosso have the best pedigrees. Vino Rosso has the best jockey.

I couldn't see why the West's would run Restoring Hope here and not in the the Easy Goer, until I saw the colt's pedigree.

[clicknow]

I finally went over all of the PPS. When I wrote the above, the PPs I was thinking were Tenfold's were actually Hofburg's. Hofburg has the right running style, Tenfold doesn't. :(

Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.

Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.

I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.

I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????

[papillon]

Wow, I watched Blended Citizens workout. He’s physically impressive. Late developer. He’s going to run big

It didn't bother you that he stopped?

DRF said it was supposed to have been an 8f work, but that he was pull up.

For a 12f race, I don't like to see a horse come to a stand still after crossing the wire in a work.

[Ribot Roboto]

Have you seen the work? He didn’t stop nor did it look like he wanted to.

[papillon]

Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.

Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.

I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.

I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????

Someone at HRN posted that Bandua was not coming, but I don't know if that is correct. If he runs, unless he has crazy long odds, I will likely not use him at all, due to money constraints.

Yesterday, Coolmore confirmed Seahenge, he was always expected to run, since the Derby. I'm pretty sure the primary motivation in running now is to give the Ryan Moore practice for when Mendelssohn ships over for the Woodward, unless they use a local jockey, but even then, I think practice for September is still a key motivation.

He's a decent horse. His Pat Day Mile is pretty indicative of his style. He is the anthithesis of swift, but he can get into a rhythmn and keep at it, even when totally out of his element, not unlike Vino Rosso. Of all the horses in the field, he's the one I know has the fitness to stay 12fs, how many miles hacking uphill over rolling fields in county Tipperary, do you think he's laid down in his life? He has the right style for the race.

TBH I thought I would like Blended Citizen, but his dirt form is the exact opposite of what wins this race, his turf form is perfect, but he is another animal on turf. He should have been in the Pennine yesterday instead of the Belmont next week. Doug will likely run him in the Belmont Derby in the summer. His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.

FWIW Pharoah's dosage was 4.33, with an 88 CD. For pedigree, I prefer AWD of sire/dam/sibs. For this race, I prefer energy distribution over all else. Pharoah was a metronome.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truenicks/archive/2012/06/08/belmont-it-s-more-about-pace-than-distance.aspx

[clicknow]

It didn't bother you that he stopped?

DRF said it was supposed to have been an 8f work, but that he was pull up.

For a 12f race, I don't like to see a horse come to a stand still after crossing the wire in a work.


Where did DRF say it was supposed to be 8f? I was unable to find that elsewhere, thanks. Equibase has it as a 5F. and a then elsewhere saw gallop out at 1:17 and change, kinda odd.

[Ribot Roboto]

His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.

THIS work?

https://www.xbtv.com/video/blended-citizen-worked-5-furlongs-in-1/blended-citizen-worked-5-furlongs-in-100-64-at-belmont-park-on-june-2nd-2018/

Neck bowed, champing at the bit, on his toes. What more do you want?

[papillon]

Have you seen the work? He didn’t stop nor did it look like he wanted to.

Yeah, I saw it. There was no gallop out at all. Horse just stopped. DRF claimed it was supposed to have been a mile work that was pulled up.

He looked pretty awful too, but I don't know what the wheather is like up there so, I'm not holding that against him.

[clicknow]

I didn't like his hanging head at the end there. Maybe outrider was pulling a reins that way?
i could not tell but looked like ears were starting to pin. he's good on the BEL surface, that was already a given. So when you see a work like this where horse doens't look like he really wants to go......it is a bit worrisome.
OTOH, he may have just been "having a bad day." It happens.

[Ribot Roboto]

That’s cool. Guess we just have different ideas on what a good work looks like.

[Fightingirish51195]

That’s cool. Guess we just have different ideas on what a good work looks like.

Yeah I mean I watched him switch leads and just explode. I really liked how he looked

[papillon]

His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.

THIS work?

https://www.xbtv.com/video/blended-citizen-worked-5-furlongs-in-1/blended-citizen-worked-5-furlongs-in-100-64-at-belmont-park-on-june-2nd-2018/

Neck bowed, champing at the bit, on his toes. What more do you want?

Yeah that one.

You don't even need the clock to see he shut it down ASAP. The "out in 17" confirms it.

I want a horse who isn't covered in lather, who doesn't shut down like a switch is thrown. YMMV. I would have been happier with a slower overall work, without drop anachor decelaration from a faster one.

Clicknow--re: the distance/pull up-- I heard it yesterday when I saw the work live on TVG. Scott Hazelton mentioned it. I will see if I can find where he got it from.

[Ribot Roboto]

Right. He really “hunkers down” when he runs, very powerful and efficient without a lot of wasted motion. He has a style that should carry him a long way Saturday.

[clicknow]

Right. He really “hunkers down” when he runs, very powerful and efficient without a lot of wasted motion. He has a style that should carry him a long way Saturday.

Blended is already known to "like" Belmont. He usually runs like it, it's very obvious....that's what a horse looks like when they like a surface. He goes on the turns well, and as you point out, switches leads effortlessly.

I think this is precisely why some are questioning his latest work. The pull up was looking rather abrupt and he didn't go the planned mile. Maybe it was a humid day like it was here yesterday.......I'm not tossing a horse on the basis of 1 workout, but it did look a bit odd for him, then combined with the distance change.


re: the distance/pull up-- I heard it yesterday when I saw the work live on TVG. Scott Hazelton mentioned it. I will see if I can find where he got it from.

Found it in the tweets:

Belmont Stakes hopeful Blended Citizen is scheduled to work a mile from the six-furlong pole at Belmont Park at 12:50 p.m. eastern. It is expected that the work will be shown live on the NYRA feed.

11:29 AM - 2 Jun 2018


A late change in plans for Blended Citizen's final Belmont Stakes work, was reportedly going to breeze a mile from the 6 furlong pole, instead went an easy 5/8's from the half in 1:00.88 before easing up quickly on the gallop out, with blinkers. Mike Luzzi aboard.

11:56 AM - 2 Jun 2018 from Franklin Square, N

[Ribot Roboto]

I really think you folks are making too much out of an outrider coming up and putting a lead on him but now I’m kind of hoping everyone thinks that was a bad work. I was afraid he was becoming the wise guy horse.

[clicknow]

I really think you folks are making too much out of an outrider coming up and putting a lead on him but now I’m kind of hoping everyone thinks that was a bad work. I was afraid he was becoming the wise guy horse.

Is he a "win" candidate for you, or just in a spread?

I still like the horse, horse for the course somewhat; maybe they were letting him work before races and that was all the time they had alloted and thus change in plans.

His odds have been dropping rapidly in vegas, I guesss you already know that.

[Ribot Roboto]

A lot can change in a week but right now yeah, he on top of my tickets. He’s a late foal, late developing.

[LemonSoupKid]

A lot can change in a week but right now yeah, he on top of my tickets. He’s a late foal, late developing.

I do like those two angles. As I posted elsewhere, only Tonalist has won in the last 20 years from the Peter Pan, otherwise it's a lot of 3rd and 4th with mostly also rans.

He'll be on some of my multirace wagers, and if I play exotics definitely 3rd or better ...

[Ribot Roboto]

How many from the last 20 Peter Pans made you think they had a chance to win besides Tonalist? Blended Citizen gives me that same sort of feel. And I’m sorry, (not directed at you Lemon) but that workout was freakin awesome lol.

[Redboard]

Blended Citizen has already proven he's a 2nd-tier 3-year-old. He's had 10 races at this point. Took him 5 races to break his Maiden, including a 3rd in a maiden claiming. 5th place in the Blue Grass?

Tonalist had 4 lifetime races when he lined up for the Belmont. Missed the derby trail because of injury. Belmont was second off a layoff. I see no similarities here.

[jay68802]

Seems everything about Blended Citizen keeps giving mixed signals. 1/2 his races make me think he has a lot of talent, the others make me think Allowance horse. Same with the work, did not like how he acted before the work, then he runs and I see a nice work, then the jockey relax's, and he quits.

Have him ranked pretty high for the Belmont, what to do?

[jocko699]

Seems everything about Blended Citizen keeps giving mixed signals. 1/2 his races make me think he has a lot of talent, the others make me think Allowance horse. Same with the work, did not like how he acted before the work, then he runs and I see a nice work, then the jockey relax's, and he quits.

Have him ranked pretty high for the Belmont, what to do?

At his best he is a G3 runner. He was all out to win the PP. You could use him in the 3rd or 4th spot.

[f2tornado]

How many from the last 20 Peter Pans made you think they had a chance to win besides Tonalist? Blended Citizen gives me that same sort of feel. And I’m sorry, (not directed at you Lemon) but that workout was freakin awesome lol.

I believe Blended Citizen is the only horse with the Raise A Native-Northern Dancer sire/dam sire nick. Prior to the Tapit invasion this was a solid winning Belmont angle. Not sold on Kyle Frey as a Belmont Stakes winning rider but can't knock him too hard after a solid ride in Peter Pan. Only hard knock I have on the horse is his final 3/8th fractions are about 0.4 seconds too slow. About the same as Good Magic and Good Magic wasn't fast enough the previous two races. The horse does seemingly run the same splits every quarter and that's a net positive here. I don't see him at the same level as Tonalist. He beat Core Beliefs in the Peter Pan who was 10 lengths behind Justify in the Santa Anita. He was five lengths behind Good Magic in the Bluegrass. I certainly won't dismiss but I'm having a hard time staying on the fence with him. My checklist from top down: Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Tenfold, and Bravazo. Not sure how I will play those yet.

[clicknow]

Took him 5 races to break his Maiden, including a 3rd in a maiden claiming.

Creator took 6 races to break his maiden.

5th place in the Blue Grass?

Creator ran 13th in the KY Derby.


Horses who win the BEL Stakes just aren't necessarily horses who win 1-1/16th and 1-1/8 prep races. It's why horses like Exaggerator finish 11th but take a lot of $$. Many people did not have Creator, just like they didn't have Tonalist and Commissioner, or Palace Malice or Drosselmeyer, etc. .

[Redboard]

Creator took 6 races to break his maiden.



Creator ran 13th in the KY Derby.


Horses who win the BEL Stakes just aren't necessarily horses who win 1-1/16th and 1-1/8 prep races. It's why horses like Exaggerator finish 11th but take a lot of $$. Many people did not have Creator, just like they didn't have Tonalist and Commissioner, or Palace Malice or Drosselmeyer, etc. .

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

[Spalding No!]

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

Drosselmeyer can be counted as a "Peter Pan" horse, too. In 2010, the Peter Pan was not run and NYRA ran the Dwyer in early May in its place.

In the past 30 years, AP Indy, Colonial Affair, Citadeed, Lemon Drop Kid, Unshaded, Sunday Break, Sunriver, Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, Tonalist, and Commissioner all won or placed in the Belmont Stakes with a prior start in the Peter Pan (or the Dwyer in 2010).

Not surprisingly not the strongest source of winners (after all, the other legs of the Triple Crown ideally would produce Belmont winners) , but seeing how its basically the last spot where second tier colts, comebackers and late bloomers can get into the Triple Crown mix its had its share of success.

[GMB@BP]

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.

[clicknow]

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.


So not utilizing speed figures as a top Belmont Stakes handicapping method is akin to picking a horse out of a hat? :bang:

7 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners earned a declining Speed rating in the previous start. James Scully has a good article on this at twinspires.

Birdstone's highest BRIS speed was a 97 (in an allowance race).
Summer Bird's highest BRIS speed was a 98
Drosselmeyer's highest BRIS speed was a 96
Ruler on Ice 93
Palace Malice 97
Creator 100
Tapwrit 101 (but mostly ran high 80's)


But if you really think this then just take the horses who have highest speed figs Blended Citizen, Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Noble Indy on top of a ticket w/all, and call it a day.

If you wanted to use Scully's declining figs angle put Justify, Hofburg, Free Drop, Noble Indy, Restoring Hope, and Vino Rosso on top and call it a day.

Or, just combine the angles using Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy on top of an exacta w/ALL.

[MadVindication]

Or, just combine the angles using Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy on top of an exacta w/ALL.

For an exacta it could be a decent play to put Justify on top with longer odds horses under and have a seperate ticket with Justify in place with all on top. Then price accordingly.

If I'm using other faves in place under Justify I'm making tri and supers. A tri with Justify third or supers with 3 and 4 singled wouldn't be a bad play either.

I doubt he's going to have a First or finish 5th or less run but the potential pay off makes small bets worth trying. There's no reason to leave Justify out except pure gambling or having a really strong opinion that this Belmont Stakes will go with the common trend and not the exceptional.

It's tough because the bet against is so tempting but all horses mostly equal.

I think Free Drop Billy suits the bill well for an upset or just a good run and good odds. His KD run is definitely a toss. I can't fault him for not liking the slop and having Robby Albarado on his back. So long as both don't happen in the Bel I'll bet him.

[f2tornado]

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.


Overall figures, sure. Best overall figure, sure. Every American horse in the gate sans Restoring Hope has at one time or more displayed higher Brisnet LP figures than Justify posted his last two outings. Many have previously been within a point or exceeded Justify's most recent final BSF or Brisnet figure. I think the favorite is quite vulnerable here but, yes, playing against still requires selecting the winner. No hat required. Performance + pedigree (potential) and hopefully collect.

[GMB@BP]

Overall figures, sure. Best overall figure, sure. Every American horse in the gate sans Restoring Hope has at one time or more displayed higher Brisnet LP figures than Justify posted his last two outings. Many have previously been within a point or exceeded Justify's most recent final BSF or Brisnet figure. I think the favorite is quite vulnerable here but, yes, playing against still requires selecting the winner. No hat required. Performance + pedigree (potential) and hopefully collect.

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.

He will join the ranks of Sarava, DaTara, Commendable, and now Taprit.

[GMB@BP]

You know, I want to make one exception, Hofburg may have some talent, his the only one in here I could see still being a better than avg race horse.

[jay68802]

You know, I want to make one exception, Hofburg may have some talent, his the only one in here I could see still being a better than avg race horse.

You would have to throw Vino Rosso into this category also.

[GMB@BP]

You would have to throw Vino Rosso into this category also.

based on what?

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?

Or his Tampa races?

[jay68802]

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.

[clicknow]

based on what?

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?

Or his Tampa races?

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.

You guys just gave excellent reasons why neither horse would be a win candidate for me.

[clicknow]

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.


Really?

So--- because the U.S. breeding practices are deficient in breeding for stamina, and the U.S. racing program is seriously lacking in races over 1-1/4 miles, let alone 1-1/2 miles

....its the HORSES who run long classic routes who are *mediocre*??

I guess I'm just a big fan of classic distance horses.


I'm not going to go thru the list, but Palace Malice, Tonalist, and others have done quite well after the Belmont.

[GMB@BP]

Really?

So--- because the U.S. breeding practices are deficient in breeding for stamina, and the U.S. racing program is seriously lacking in races over 1-1/4 miles, let alone 1-1/2 miles

....its the HORSES who run long classic routes who are *mediocre*??

I guess I'm just a big fan of classic distance horses.


I'm not going to go thru the list, but Palace Malice, Tonalist, and others have done quite well after the Belmont.

The list you can quote the last 18 years (starting about 2000) is pretty small relative to other major Grade 1 races that are run for three year olds.

Birdstone for example, a nice horse, won 1 more race if I recall, it was the travers so I think of him as one of the better Belmont winners. Tonalist, Palace Malice, and American Pharoah were solid.

I mean even a horse like Drosselmeyer was woefully average (for our Classic winners) despite two really big wins.

[MadVindication]

I believe Blended Citizen is the only horse with the Raise A Native-Northern Dancer sire/dam sire nick.

Free Drop Billy has Nothern Dancer and Mr. Prospector all over. Mr. Prospector certainly lived up to his namesake as a stallion. :D Is there an american graded stakes horse without him somewhere in their bloodline

[jocko699]

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.


The race was set up for him in the Wood but what I did not like was how he bore in badly at the eighth pole.

[jay68802]

The race was set up for him in the Wood but what I did not like was how he bore in badly at the eighth pole.

Agree about the race set up, but he took advantage of it and you have to respect that. How many times has a horse had the set up and could not take advantage. Boring in was not nice, but at least it was not a physical problem (that we know of) probably more a horse being tired after chasing down a hot pace, and I can accept that.

[f2tornado]

Free Drop Billy has Nothern Dancer and Mr. Prospector all over. Mr. Prospector certainly lived up to his namesake as a stallion. :D Is there an american graded stakes horse without him somewhere in their bloodline

Free Drop is a Northern Dancer sire line. I think you missed the part about Raise A Native sire line combined with Northern Dancer dam sire line. Previous winners and placers with this particular bloodline include: Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, Curlin (place), Jazil, Empire Maker, Sunday Break (show), Unshaded (show), Victory Gallup, Thunder Gulch. Some years did not have a starter featuring the combo. It was a solid angle prior to the Tapit parade.

[papillon]

How many from the last 20 Peter Pans made you think they had a chance to win besides Tonalist? Blended Citizen gives me that same sort of feel. And I’m sorry, (not directed at you Lemon) but that workout was freakin awesome lol.

:rolleyes:

[MadVindication]

Free Drop is a Northern Dancer sire line. I think you missed the part about Raise A Native sire line combined with Northern Dancer dam sire line. Previous winners and placers with this particular bloodline include: Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, Curlin (place), Jazil, Empire Maker, Sunday Break (show), Unshaded (show), Victory Gallup, Thunder Gulch. Some years did not have a starter featuring the combo. It was a solid angle prior to the Tapit parade.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

[jocko699]

Agree about the race set up, but he took advantage of it and you have to respect that. How many times has a horse had the set up and could not take advantage. Boring in was not nice, but at least it was not a physical problem (that we know of) probably more a horse being tired after chasing down a hot pace, and I can accept that.


I agree with taking advantage of it. I thought I would lose when the inquiry sign came up. Still not too sure the decision was right.

[f2tornado]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

Raise A Native via tail sire line: top line. Top line Raise A Native horses have been dominant in Triple Crown races for the past several decades be it random coincidence or genetic. And when they don't win they frequently place.

[clicknow]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.


um, yes it matters WHERE the pedigree influences are, and it's not at all "arbitrary".

And in what position and in what generations ----huge difference between having an influence on sire side or mare side, etc. A certain BMS on sire side is not same as if on the dam side, etc.

It's important to know these things because there are also just certain top/bottoms that are "snakebit" for certain kinds of races, too.

Otherwise, you aren't really "pedigree handicapping".


I'm curious as to why you like FDB, by the way. I started talking about him about a week ago on here, and AFAIC, I'm one of the few who like him even a "little bit". So what is it about him, or his pedigree, that you like, specifically? I was surprised to see you bring him up :)

He has ND and RaN everywhere.

I have *no* idea what this means.

[MadVindication]

I just don't see what the basis to compare such specifics are too. There's no control group. You can probably find more horses of similar pedigrees who never win maiden races than who make it to graded stakes. With how prolific sire lines are it is more like bingo than handi-capping. Coincidence.

I think betting pedigree is of course valid, as the entire sport is based on breeding and confirmation. but I don't see how looking for very specific combinations down the line makes much of a difference. to look at sires/dams down the line or to look at how sire's/dam's other progeny ran at distances/surfaces/performed in general makes sense. But probably fails more than otherwise. Especially when the sport is full of classy, expensive pedigrees.

[Spalding No!]

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.

He will join the ranks of Sarava, DaTara, Commendable, and now Taprit.

A little early to write off Tapwrit. He ran a solid race pressing a fast pace and perhaps making the lead a bit too soon in his comeback. Of course, its a Pletcher horse as a 4yo so you might ultimately be correct. Still, Creator would have been a better fit.

As for Commendable, that horse probably had more talent than was ever realized. He was thoroughly ground down by Lukas, who missed almost no occasion to run him after returning from a 5 month layoff following his abbreviated 2yo campaign (his debut victory was well hyped). Lukas even saw fit to run him less than four weeks after his Belmont win in the Dwyer. I guess he had to make up for skipping the Preakness with him.

[Ribot Roboto]

Sorry Pap. I promise to help you tell the difference sometime between a horse that’s ready to go and one that’s not. :)

[Ribot Roboto]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy

So it's Raise a Native on his sire side only through the male line? Seems arbitrary superstition to me. He has ND and RaN everywhere otherwise.

There are what are known as “nicks”, i.e. certain pairings of certain lines in a pedigree work a lot better than others. The Raise A Native-Northern Dancer nick has historically and empirically been proven to be one of the best in classic distance races.

[Spalding No!]

The list you can quote the last 18 years (starting about 2000) is pretty small relative to other major Grade 1 races that are run for three year olds.
Among the Triple Crown races since 2000, I think only Curlin (6 G1 wins, Preakness) California Chrome (3 G1 wins, Kentucky Derby) and Tonalist (3 G1 wins, Belmont) won more than a pair of subsequent Grade 1s.

The vast majority from all 3 races were retired at the end of their 3yo years. A handful like Bernardini, Point Given, Summer Bird, and American Pharoah won a pair of Grade 1s afterwards.

Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Union Rags, Barbaro, and I'll Have Another were all injured by the end of the Triple Crown. Major talent Empire Maker didn't last long, either.

[Ribot Roboto]

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.

You have to be able to think outside the box a little bit. Sure Justify would romp on this bunch at 9 furlongs, 10 furlongs, maybe even 11 furlongs. He might even do it at 12 furlongs but it’s nowhere near a sure thing. Trying to find one to beat him isn’t picking them out of a hat, its just the sensible thing to do unless you’re a bridge jumper because loading up on him is the only way you’re going to make any money on him here.

Some speed figures are almost as subjective as my and Papillion’s workout judging abilities but some people live by them. I’m always reminded of the required investment warning...past results are not indicative of future performance.

[Spalding No!]

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?
Did the Wood fall apart? Ignoring the run-off Old Time Revival, Enticed and Restoring Hope ran 1-2 for the first 6 furlongs and finished 2-3 after Vino Rosso collared them at the 1/4 pole and drove clear.

Hofburg with his suck-up second behind a ridiculous speed duel in the Florida Derby and his top "gallop out" in the Derby is much more suspect than Vino Rosso.

As far future endeavors go, the key difference is probably that one is trained by a guy who can't get a horse through a 4yo season and the other is trained by a guy who can (but can't seem able to get a horse ready in time for the 3yo classics).

[Robert Fischer]

Sorry Pap. I promise to help you tell the difference sometime between a horse that’s ready to go and one that’s not. :)

He looked good on that work.

The negative workout comments were weird. Trust your eyes.


Blended Citizen is in peak form. Once in a while Doug O'Neill gets a stakes horse in really peak shape, and he's done that with Blended Citizen.

If you have a set of eyes and a brain, you are happy with that work. It wasn't as impressive as watching Justify move like a Breeders Cup Classic favorite, but it was good for Blended Citizen and it was good relative to the moves we've seen by this Belmont field.

The problem with Blended Citizen is that he's never done any running in 10 career starts.

He broke his maiden on the 5th try while getting a dream trip.
He got a dream trip in the eddie logan and the el camino real while not really ever posing a winning threat.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks race had some goofy premature middle move by Murgawitz(or whatever his name is). Other than it being a blanket finish Doug couldn't have written it up any better.
His Bluegrass was flat, in spite of the supposed excuse when Sporting Chance was punch-drunk in the stretch.
His Peter Pan was a dream trip although there was enough of a visually impressive element to the stretch run to give him some credit.


That's the good and the bad. This horse isn't going to compete. He doesn't do any of the work in the running of the race. He needs distance and he needs his rivals to work. He's in top form, and it's the Belmont going 12F with some who may not be dedicated plodders and may attempt to chase Justify... So if he runs his race he has an opportunity here to run 2nd or 3rd if the pace isn't really soft.

[Ribot Roboto]

I agree with much of what you said but a couple of things stand out to me in Blended Citizen’s past performances. First, he obviously took a big step forward when he turned three. Getting him back off the turf looks like it turned on the light switch, and they added blinkers. In the Pan he was much more forwardly placed. He’s a late foal that looks like he’s just now coming into his own.

If Justify loses he looks to me like the winner.

[GMB@BP]

Did the Wood fall apart? Ignoring the run-off Old Time Revival, Enticed and Restoring Hope ran 1-2 for the first 6 furlongs and finished 2-3 after Vino Rosso collared them at the 1/4 pole and drove clear.

Hofburg with his suck-up second behind a ridiculous speed duel in the Florida Derby and his top "gallop out" in the Derby is much more suspect than Vino Rosso.

As far future endeavors go, the key difference is probably that one is trained by a guy who can't get a horse through a 4yo season and the other is trained by a guy who can (but can't seem able to get a horse ready in time for the 3yo classics).

I get what your saying but still feel like the race was slowing considerably down the stretch. I would expect a more talented horse to not have to battle Enticed the entire stretch, along with bumping him as well.

Vino Rosso has run exactly one good race.

Again, if the talented horse in this race does not run as we discussed, I feel like any one of 9 can win.

Betting this race feels like betting that 2M turf race on Friday.

[Spalding No!]

I get what your saying but still feel like the race was slowing considerably down the stretch. I would expect a more talented horse to not have to battle Enticed the entire stretch, along with bumping him as well.
I agree, despite winning clear, it was hardly a resounding stretch drive by Vino Rosso.

However, this race is set up completely different with an additional 3 furlongs to consider. Whereas Vino Rosso might not possess a monster turn of foot nor be a fast horse in general, if he has any of the stamina his pedigree suggests, then his best might be good enough.

Additionally, Vino Rosso was hard used around the far turn at Aqueduct. Somewhere someone else said he didn't do well on the turns--an assertion I don't necessarily subscribe to---so if that's correct, he should get some relief from the wide turns at Belmont.

Meanwhile, I think its unlikely that Justify will be able to maintain the strong pace he displayed in previous races for the full 12 furlongs (i.e., there will be no Secretariat-type effort on Saturday). He's clearly gotten late in both the Derby and the Preakness after setting strong fractions and yet no one has been able to reel him in. That's either an indictment of the rest of the crop or a function of the sloppy track conditions and/or traffic woes of some of his rivals.

Justify has yet to show he can go slow and steady early. I think his average Timeform pace figure for the opening fractions is something like 140+. I don't think he can pull the same "blistering first half/staggering second half" strategy he did in the first two legs. He has done nothing yet to suggest he's truly rateable, certainly not with the blazing 1/2 mile work he uncorked last week.

Even the allowance race where he settled in 2-3 spot was a bit of an illusion. The frontrunner there, Calexman, is a runoff who also outfooted the hyped up Ax Man in a subsequent allowance race. Calexman has so much early speed he even mixed it up on the front end in a down-the-hill sprint on the grass. While its a good sign that Justify isn't so intractable that he couldn't lay off a horse like Calexman, the question remains can he slow himself down to an appropriate pace whereby he can comfortably see out the 12 furlongs.

American Pharoah, who already showed he could go slow early in the Rebel (and the Kentucky Derby relatively speaking), registered pace figures around 130 in his cakewalk Belmont, where he was completely untouched and left to his own devices throughout (just think if Lezcano had ridden Frosted that day instead of in the Travers...). Not sure such an ideal trip will materialize for Justify, and if Smith has to take a firm hold of him to keep him from going too fast early, it might draw someone else into making an early run at him. That's not going to help Justify beat his main rival, the 12 furlong distance.

[clicknow]

There are what are known as “nicks”, i.e. certain pairings of certain lines in a pedigree work a lot better than others. The Raise A Native-Northern Dancer nick has historically and empirically been proven to be one of the best in classic distance races.

Just like you woudn't use the dreaded ND/BR, API for the KY Derby win spot (i.e. Patch, Montauk come to mind). Montauk not making the gate this year did the bettors a big favor, probably would have taken a lot of $$ due to being a Pletcher.

[MadVindication]

I'm curious as to why you like FDB, by the way. I started talking about him about a week ago on here, and AFAIC, I'm one of the few who like him even a "little bit". So what is it about him, or his pedigree, that you like, specifically? I was surprised to see you bring him up :)


I mentioned him since you were discussing him. Awhile back I had read on a pedigree experts website that she liked Vino Rosso and Free Drop for potentially having the pedigree to go the derby distance. Both of them trotted off with some of my money then. Looking into it myself I saw FDB had a lot of routers in both his dam and sire lines. Nothing complicated.

Free Drop got a shit post position in the KD. Glad that can't really happen in the Belmont. I'm looking forward to seeing him run this and he'll have nice odds. I've watched his races a few times over I'm not sure what his limitations are compared to others who aren't Justify.

And my point earlier, was that I don't understand why it should be more significant that Blended has specific northern dancer/raise a nat. cross, when Free Drop is crossbred with those two like a checkerboard and he has the strongest direct distance pedigree from what I see. But it was ignorant of me to say that the success of a "nick" is really just coincidence.

[f2tornado]

...I saw FDB had a lot of routers in both his dam and sire lines. Nothing complicated.

Free Drop got a shit post position in the KD. Glad that can't really happen in the Belmont. I'm looking forward to seeing him run this and he'll have nice odds. I've watched his races a few times over I'm not sure what his limitations are compared to others who aren't Justify.

FDB has a very low Dosage of 1.74 with most of his points dead center. He also has Audience in tail female. This line produced Derby winner Venetian Way and Preakness winner Timber Country. These suggest he could potentially handle 12 panels better than others. He's not particularly fast but could be a Keen Ice type. He had a nice work at CD a couple days ago. I'm highly skeptical he can win here but wouldn't be shocked if he added 40-1 flavor to your tri or super wager.

[SkunkApe]

I agree with much of what you said but a couple of things stand out to me in Blended Citizen’s past performances. First, he obviously took a big step forward when he turned three. Getting him back off the turf looks like it turned on the light switch, and they added blinkers. In the Pan he was much more forwardly placed. He’s a late foal that looks like he’s just now coming into his own.

If Justify loses he looks to me like the winner.

I am of a like mind.

[clicknow]

I will probably bet against Justify for the win on a few tickets.

Right now, I like Bandua, Bravazo, Tenfold and.... Free Drop Billy for top part.


Haven't much changed my mind since a week ago ..Still like the same horses, except I think I'm kicking Bravazo to the curb if track is dry/fast. I can't help but think he may have just romped in the mud. Additionally, I'm not betting against Justify because of odds, I'm betting against him because I am making (mostly) pedigree plays and I actually don't think he has the right stuff for 12F. OTOH, the additional horses entered in this are not world beaters and based on performance he might just run by them because he is quite talented.

So same horses, tenfold and fdb in top parts, then throw in some vino rosso, hofburg, justify in next spots, and i'm gonna use Gronkowski and Blended in one particular spot only on tris and superfectas. Will have to work on my wager construction tomorrow. :)

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.

Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.

I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.

I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????

I always paid attention to the CD in the Belmont. Something less than 0.55

I talked with Doug O'Neill a little bit today, although not about Blended Citizen. I'll talk to him about the race on Saturday.

[Ribot Roboto]

The average cd of the past 25 winners of the Belmont is 0.73.

[RunForTheRoses]

Says Irad is jockey...ok
Jerry Bailey predicts biggest Belmont challenge facing Justify: https://nypost.com/2018/06/08/jerry-bailey-knows-biggest-belmont-challenge-facing-justify/

[LemonSoupKid]

Justify 3.00, 0.75
Free Drop Billy 1.74, 0.42
Bravazo 2.75, 0.67
Hofburg 2.78, 0.65
Restoring Hope 1.72, 0.35
Gronkowski 3.00, 0.86
Tenfold 3.00, 0.69
Vino Rosso 3.57, 0.88
Noble Indy 3.00, 0.72
Blended Citizen 3.00, 0.71

[clicknow]

The average cd of the past 25 winners of the Belmont is 0.73.

of late 0.69-0.71 or 72 seems like the sweet spot so I agree