Pensacola Pete
05-27-2018, 05:02 PM
I just finished a 30 day study of late money moves over 20 tracks. Here are my conclusions:
1) The whales are greedy little sots who never stop being hungry.
2) This behavior happens in every visual pool for every race at every race track in North America that allows online wagering. It may also happen in the unseen pools (i.e. 3+ vertical and horizontals), but it's difficult to verify.
3) There IS a pattern to it. It can actually be predicted.
Using HTR, Excel (and Access to research it), I came up with a formula that takes various factors into account. It zeroes in on on the horse(s) that are going to get crushed in the pool, with about 85% accuracy --- this before the pools even open.
The problem with exploiting this is that even knowing who is being slammed, the ROI is still in the 0.91 range. I guess the big players get fantastic rebates. That or they're stepping on each others' feet, and they all aren't making money.
Of course, when one gets a horse that the greed mongers ARE'NT going to bet, "there's gold in them their hills" in the form of better prices.
Now I need to test it forwardly for another 30 days to be sure the accuracy stays the same.
1) The whales are greedy little sots who never stop being hungry.
2) This behavior happens in every visual pool for every race at every race track in North America that allows online wagering. It may also happen in the unseen pools (i.e. 3+ vertical and horizontals), but it's difficult to verify.
3) There IS a pattern to it. It can actually be predicted.
Using HTR, Excel (and Access to research it), I came up with a formula that takes various factors into account. It zeroes in on on the horse(s) that are going to get crushed in the pool, with about 85% accuracy --- this before the pools even open.
The problem with exploiting this is that even knowing who is being slammed, the ROI is still in the 0.91 range. I guess the big players get fantastic rebates. That or they're stepping on each others' feet, and they all aren't making money.
Of course, when one gets a horse that the greed mongers ARE'NT going to bet, "there's gold in them their hills" in the form of better prices.
Now I need to test it forwardly for another 30 days to be sure the accuracy stays the same.