Justify’s Form Cycling Downward

[Blenheim]

BRIS Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 100
OC75k/n1x-N 104
SA Derby-G1 114
KyDerby-G1 102
Preakness-G1 98


“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” - James Quinn


Justify gave Baffert four triple digit efforts, reached the peak of his form cycle in the Santa Anita and he is now trending downward – first time under triple digits.

[letswastemoney]

Depends on what speed figures you use. On TimeformUS, he's still the same.

[Blenheim]

BEYER Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 104
OC75k/n1x-N ?
SA Derby-G1 107
KyDerby-G1 103
Preakness-G1 97

[Blenheim]

RACING POST RATINGS

Mdn 54k 104
OC75k/n1x-N 110
SA Derby-G1 123
KyDerby-G1 123
Preakness-G1 115

[Tom]

Thorograph figs - 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 -?

Anyone know what he got for the Preakness?
That board atTG is far too pathetic to read anything .:rolleyes:

[n.c]

dry runner????
Justify is a big horse, so he has big feet????, so slop might not be his strength.

Slop-
"Trainers get tired of hearing it from us, but some horses just don't handle it," Baze said. "Ideally, horses with small feet and a concave hoof will handle it better. "

[n.c]

OFF ratings
Quip-113
Lone Sailor-106
Sporting Chance -106
Diamond King -110
Good Magic -112
Ten Fold -112
Justify -105:confused:
Bravazo-106

[cj]

RACING POST RATINGS

Mdn 54k 104
OC75k/n1x-N 110
SA Derby-G1 123
KyDerby-G1 123
Preakness-G1 115

Racing Post are not speed ratings. A horse will never get a big rating for a maiden or an allowance, just isn't going to happen.

Timeform, oldest to newest:

112
107+
126+
127+
120

[cj]

TimeformUS, adjusted to 126 pounds, oldest to newest:

129
122
131
127
128

[Prof.Factor]

Prof.Factor's speed figs (that's what I use) ;-)

121
126
133
132
131

[classhandicapper]

Racing Post are not speed ratings. A horse will never get a big rating for a maiden or an allowance, just isn't going to happen.

Timeform, oldest to newest:

112
107+
126+
127+
120

That set more or less matches my "class oriented" thinking. I'd probably rate the SA Derby a tad lower relative to the KY Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

In this case, 'condition' is the major model that is driving 'form'.

In order to understand and predict his form, you have to understand the problems that he's had with his physical condition.


HE DID NOT RACE AT 2YO - This was NOT a sporting attempt to foil the Apollo Curse... This was not because he was tall and wanted to grow into his frame... This was not because they wanted a late bloomer... This WAS P.U.P. Physically Unable to Perform. He had minor surgery to clean up an OCD lesion in his stifle, then he kept having heel cracks
They finally had him ready to go in February 3YO
He dominated two races while dealing with heel cracks
He dominated the Santa Anita Derby but aggravated his heel problems
He dominated the Kentucky Derby while asked for everything he had and aggravated his heel problem
He came out of the race lame
He had an expert come in and scrape off the bad portion of the heel and replace it with synthetic patching material and then design a way to shoe him while best protecting his hoof bruise
He may or may not have been medicated for the hoof reconstruction and for the shipping, He may or may not have been aggressively treated regard pain in the hoof bruise.
With only 2 weeks between races, and a few precious days spent on treatment, He managed to get in a few jog/gallops one of which was at least a decent hard-held gallop the day or two before the Preakness
Ran in the Preakness and gutted-out a win


Justify's Belmont may be the first time since maybe his allowance that he'll have both a solid hoof and enough time between races to run his 'A' race.

We will have to watch for a pre-Belmont workout. He should go out to the track, put in a normal 4f breeze with a gallop out. (Monday June 4 would be ideal, anytime between the 1st and 4th would be fine).

If we see that, we will know that his condition has improved again, and he'll run about what he ran in the Derby.

If we don't see this work(meaning that he 'gallops up to the Belmont') we will know that in spite of Baffert's ideal plan of giving him a work around the 4th, that his condition is still too poor to meet the schedule of preparation. We can then be wary that his condition may be close to as poor as it was following the Kentucky Derby and prior to the Preakness.

[cj]

That set more or less matches my "class oriented" thinking. I'd probably rate the SA Derby a tad lower relative to the KY Derby.

That is where you need the speed component. It was no fluke obviously he was heavily bet in the SA Derby despite not having faced much class wise.

[Blenheim]

If we see that, [a normal 4f breeze with a gallop out]we will know that his condition has improved again, and he'll run about what he ran in the Derby.



I'll be looking for that work.


~


I don’t have a dog in the speed figures contest, I simply noticed a pattern through observation and thought it would make for a good thread. The deeper I dug the more pronounced the pattern became, now even more so with more numbers likely to come. Handicapping can be wonderfully intriguing . . .



Before Roman left the game in 2016, his website contained a chart titled: Speed Figures: A Comparison of Performance Figures, Timeform Ratings, Racing Post Ratings, BRIS Ratings and Equibase Ratings. Therein, the correlation coefficient between Roman’s Performance Figures and the Beyer Speed Figures was .88. The correlation coefficient between the Roman Performance Figures and the BRIS Ratings was .87. I used the BSFs to get to the PFs. I used the BRIS 100 to get to the OC75 . . . remember I’m looking for patterns. Roman’s Performance Figures also fit the pattern of declining form. The PFs suggest Justify’s form is in a perilous decline, more so than I initially thought. With the PFs, the higher the negative the stronger the performance. When I saw those numbers, I though what if this horse doesn’t hit the board . . . man somebody is gonna hit for boxcars. :cool:


ROMAN Performance Figures

Mdn 54k PF -62
OC75k/n1x-N PF -50
SA Derby-G1 PF -70
KyDerby-G1 PF -60
Preakness-G1 PF -45

[f2tornado]

When I saw those numbers, I though what if this horse doesn’t hit the board . . . man somebody is gonna hit for boxcars. :cool:

ROMAN Performance Figures

Mdn 54k PF -62
OC75k/n1x-N PF -50
SA Derby-G1 PF -70
KyDerby-G1 PF -60
Preakness-G1 PF -45

Good post. I miss Roman's site. I recall Chrome was practically handed the trophy then only hit the bottom of super courtesy of a DH. American Pharoah aside, the Belmont has been extremely kind to bettors going against a Crown contender. This feels like another year to go for those boxcars.

[dilanesp]

Good post. I miss Roman's site. I recall Chrome was practically handed the trophy then only hit the bottom of super courtesy of a DH. American Pharoah aside, the Belmont has been extremely kind to bettors going against a Crown contender. This feels like another year to go for those boxcars.

Well, let's go through all of them in the last 30 years:

Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Sunday Silence- finished 2nd, beaten about 8 lengths, to Easy Goer, a logical horse who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Sunday Silence had an excellent career including a win in the BC Classic and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Silver Charm- finished 2nd, beaten a length or so, to Touch Gold, a logical horse who had a bad trip in the Preakness and might have been the best horse in that race. Silver Charm had an excellent career including the Dubai World Cup and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.
Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.
War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.
Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.
Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Big Brown- did not finish, as Da Tara went wire to the wire as an absolute shocking longshot winner and then never won another race of consequence. I think Big Brown came back to win the Haskell before retirement, but we have no idea how good he really was.
California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.
American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.

So usually the TC horse loses the Belmont, even if he is really good. And the Belmont upsetter is usually either a logical horse who did well in the other legs of the TC or a late bloomer. If you are looking for a bomb, Da Tara and Sarava are your precedents.

[Tom]

Still waiting to see who else enters, but I am looking for a wire to wire win by Justify by open lengths. The track and GM dictated he distribute his energy so early. It won't happen in the Belmont.
And SMith is no stranger o the track - a huge factor.

[Spalding No!]

Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Alysheba also didn't receive Lasix, which I think was one of the excuses for his performance, although it didn't seem to be a problem later in his career.

Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.
Real Quiet also took down the 1999 Pimlico Special over Silver Charm's arch rival Free House. That means Real Quiet won twice as many Grade 1s as Silver Charm after their respective Triple Crown bids.

Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.
Lemon Drop Kid was a Grade 1 winner at 2 and ran in the BC Juvenile, which was a very productive race for Classic winners in the '80s and '90s.

War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.
War Emblem had a horrendous start in the Belmont. I think Baffert got a $50K appearance fee by starting War Emblem in the Haskell later that summer.

Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.
Funny Cide ran 3rd, eventual Travers winner Ten Most Wanted ran 2nd. I think Funny Cide worked 5f in something like :58+ a couple of days before the race. Barclay Tagg was not happy.

Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Birdstone was a Grade 1 winner at 2 and was among the favorites for the BC Juvenile but was held out of the race by Nick Zito because he didn't want to ship to California. He was also the early winter book favorite for the Derby after the ho-hum Action This Day won the BC Juvenile.

California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.
California Chrome got stepped on coming out the gate and had a decent heel bulb laceration as a result.

American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.
Assault won 5 of 7 starts in top class company at 4 and developed a rivalry with Stymie while carrying weights in excess of 130 lbs.

[jocko699]

Still waiting to see who else enters, but I am looking for a wire to wire win by Justify by open lengths. The track and GM dictated he distribute his energy so early. It won't happen in the Belmont.
And SMith is no stranger o the track - a huge factor.

Don't know about wire to wire my friend but at the 3/8 "Big Money" Mike will let him go. IMO, if the track is dry he will show an unbelievable turn of foot.

[dilanesp]

Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.

[Tee]

Silver Charm did win the G1 Dubai World Cup.

[Tom]

Don't know about wire to wire my friend but at the 3/8 "Big Money" Mike will let him go. IMO, if the track is dry he will show an unbelievable turn of foot.

I see that he took today off - 4 in a row.
Still got my thumb on the wad......

[cj]

Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.

Equibase has the Strub as a G2 by then.

[Spalding No!]

Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.

Yes, Silver Charm ran in all 3 legs of the Strub Series, missing by a 1/2 length in his comeback in the 7 furlong Malibu before taking the other 2 legs. He won 6 of 9 starts at 4, but tailed off badly at 5 and was retired mid-season.

Real Quiet only lasted 5 races at 4 and the Hollywood Gold Cup was his last race. He was hurt in a workout before the Pacific Classic.

[Tom]

Silver Charm - the good old days, when horses raced often, and fast.

Unlike today, when we get excited over a stinking 107 Beyer.
Take a look at the cover of Joe Cardelo's book - Speed to Spare.
That tells you what racing has become today.

[Aner]

It is hard to detect declining form. The one time I used it successfully was Lost In The Fog's Breeder's cup loss at Belmont in 2005. Lost In The Fog was a pure speed demon. Up to this loss he had won 10 straight sprints. He always took the lead and nearly always had a bullet work prior to the race. He was the favorite in every race he attempted. His work out before the Belmont race was much slower than normal. As you probably know he died a few months later with massive cancer tumors.

[BlueChip@DRF]

When the crown is on the line, there is no coronation when there are more than 8 entries.

[GaryG]

I see that he took today off - 4 in a row.
Still got my thumb on the wad......He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.

[Tom]

He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.

No, Justify took the day off.
They kept him in the barn.

[f2tornado]

One need not need a bomb on top to get paid well in the Belmont but one does typically need the chalk to fall out of the exacta, or better, miss the board entirely to get the boxcar. The payouts have historically been decent even with the logical second choice on top. I have noted the payouts for $2 in bold. Some are certainly better than others. In several cases the trifecta yielded exponential results. I'm sure the horizontal wagers follow suit.

Well, let's go through all of them in the last 30 years:

Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.

$77.80 Exacta $472 Trifecta

Sunday Silence- finished 2nd, beaten about 8 lengths, to Easy Goer, a logical horse who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Sunday Silence had an excellent career including a win in the BC Classic and would have been a worthy TC winner.

$8.80 Exacta $152 Trifecta

Silver Charm- finished 2nd, beaten a length or so, to Touch Gold, a logical horse who had a bad trip in the Preakness and might have been the best horse in that race. Silver Charm had an excellent career including the Dubai World Cup and would have been a worthy TC winner.

Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $23.80

Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.

Exacta $17.60 Trifecta $275

Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.

Exacta $1537 Trifecta $5343

War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.

Exacta $2454 Trifecta $25209

Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.

Exacta $44 Trifecta $67.50

Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Big Brown- did not finish, as Da Tara went wire to the wire as an absolute shocking longshot winner and then never won another race of consequence. I think Big Brown came back to win the Haskell before retirement, but we have no idea how good he really was.

Exacta $139 Trifecta $1589

California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.

Exacta $348 Trifecta $6781

American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.

Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $285

So usually the TC horse loses the Belmont, even if he is really good. And the Belmont upsetter is usually either a logical horse who did well in the other legs of the TC or a late bloomer. If you are looking for a bomb, Da Tara and Sarava are your precedents.

[GMB@BP]

BRIS Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 100
OC75k/n1x-N 104
SA Derby-G1 114
KyDerby-G1 102
Preakness-G1 98


“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” - James Quinn


Justify gave Baffert four triple digit efforts, reached the peak of his form cycle in the Santa Anita and he is now trending downward – first time under triple digits.

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/mike-brunker-sports-columns/in-the-preakness-did-you-see-laurel-or-yanny/

[Tom]

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.

How did you get the pace fig from BRIS before it comes out in PPs?
I've only ever seen the SR given.

[GMB@BP]

How did you get the pace fig from BRIS before it comes out in PPs?
I've only ever seen the SR given.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Free_Belmont_Stakes_2018_past_performances_now_ava ilable_123

[Robert Fischer]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Free_Belmont_Stakes_2018_past_performances_now_ava ilable_123

yikes

lot of vultures on those preview PPs, but only 1 lion.

Either Lukas or Asmussen would need to sacrifice a nice horse (Bravazo, Tenfold) who otherwise look to run a nice race chasing, or someone would need to enter a rabbit. Fair to openly question whether even entering a rabbit would be 'discouraged'.

Meanwhile, Justify's physical condition is already better than it was at any time between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

[dilanesp]

yikes

lot of vultures on those preview PPs, but only 1 lion.

Either Lukas or Asmussen would need to sacrifice a nice horse (Bravazo, Tenfold) who otherwise look to run a nice race chasing, or someone would need to enter a rabbit. Fair to openly question whether even entering a rabbit would be 'discouraged'.

Meanwhile, Justify's physical condition is already better than it was at any time between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

They don't "need" to do anything. The 1 1/2 miles, third race in five weeks, declining form, and hard race in the Preakness is almost certainly enough to make Justify vulnerable.

The other connections should just assume he will stop and figure out where they want to be when he does.

[jocko699]

They don't "need" to do anything. The 1 1/2 miles, third race in five weeks, declining form, and hard race in the Preakness is almost certainly enough to make Justify vulnerable.

The other connections should just assume he will stop and figure out where they want to be when he does.

*Yawn*

[Blenheim]

Overexertion

When a horse runs or does other hard work within the safe limits of its capacity, its ears prick toward the path ahead, or turn backward to the voice of rider or driver. Under heavy strain that is close to the threshold of physical crisis, the ears flatten from base to tip along the head. The nose reaches straight out, reddened nostrils flaring to receive maximum oxygen. Muscles bunch and, in thin-skinned breeds, veins swell conspicuously all over the body and particularly on the neck and around the eyes and face.

With the approach of exhaustion, the head “lugs” down in fatigue, alternately coming up for air and falling once more. The stride slows. Then the mouth opens and gasping begins and the ears flop sideways, the animal is literally in a struggle to survive, having been pushed too far. At this point, with the horses’ attention concentrated on taking in air rather than on work, the likelihood of a misstep and a snapped leg increases. And unless the animal is allowed to stop work at once, chances increase that its efforts will end with heart failure or internal hemorrhage. The Body Language of Horses - Ainslie, Ledbetter 1980

[Speed Figure]

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.
Understand that the E2 pace rating at 10 furlongs is the one mile call and not the 6 furlong call as the Preakness is, but the 6 furlong call was also rated at 102.

[classhandicapper]

That is where you need the speed component. It was no fluke obviously he was heavily bet in the SA Derby despite not having faced much class wise.

The toughest part of "class handicapping" for me is the lightly raced maiden or allowance horse taking on better stakes company for the first time (typically in races for 2yos and 3yos).

Many will be overmatched when they try a tough stakes even if they have comparable or better speed figures than the stake horses. Some will fit right in or even exceed the figures they've been running in ALW races when they are finally asked for their best against better competition.

So how do you figure out what you are dealing with?

Sometimes there are visual clues.

You can see how easily a horse moved past other horses in its races.

If it's a really hot prospect for a really big race you may get a chance to watch it work out "in company". Justify worked in company with Hoppertunity and it was pretty obvious that Justify was a much better horse.

How it does in the stretch is a clue.

If the horses is drawing off in the stretch and winning big in its races that usually a good sign.

The best clue may be who trains it.

If it's a well bred horse trained by Pletcher, Baffert, Brown or someone like that, it's way more likely to jump up when tested than if it's trained by some average guy. The best trainers get the best prospects and they work their horses in company. So they know where to spot them so they aren't overmatched.

If some 3yo NW1 winner is jumping into a stake and he's trained by Pletcher, I'm terrified of that horse even if he looks a little slower on figures. If Joe Blow is the trainer, even if he looks fast enough he might be a toss.

Sometimes I have no idea.

[MadVindication]

I'm going to run like the devil is chasing me and see how I feel after. If I feel fine, Justify is a toss.

[Vinnie]

If you run like the devil you aren't in all likelihood going to feel too well immediately thereafter..... :)

[MadVindication]

If you run like the devil you aren't in all likelihood going to feel too well immediately thereafter..... :)

At least I can prove to myself I can give it all I've got.

I've not run in a long time. If we were handicapping "Human Maiden Runs: over 30 years-old, Non-Athletes" my PP would say "pack a day smoker/lung burner"

[MadVindication]

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

Tired Justify aside, where's the horse that's going to both conserve their energy enough to pass him, while keeping up enough lengths to beat him, and actually be willing to pass him?

[Vinnie]

At least I can prove to myself I can give it all I've got.

I've not run in a long time. If we were handicapping "Human Maiden Runs: over 30 years-old, Non-Athletes" my PP would say "pack a day smoker/lung burner"

:lol::lol::lol:

[RunForTheRoses]

Thorograph figs - 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 -?

Anyone know what he got for the Preakness?
That board atTG is far too pathetic to read anything .:rolleyes:

The numbers are up at their website, he got a zero as did Tenfold and Bravazzo. Could be the 0 2 x pattern although with the offtrack it may be premature to think that. Bravazzo may be due for a clinker as well as he now ran zero twice on a row after running much worse figs.

[clicknow]

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

I somewhat liking Blended Citizen a tad better than Bravazo, but will have to watch a few more replay races.

[LemonSoupKid]

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

Tired Justify aside, where's the horse that's going to both conserve their energy enough to pass him, while keeping up enough lengths to beat him, and actually be willing to pass him?

Could be, but Smarty Jones was as talented as any of these, and Birdstone was ok moving ahead, not shabby 5-1 winner of the Travers, 7th in BC Classic.

There's more to suggest the last race has hangers than Hofburg, yeah I know he's the wise guy horse but he's exceptionally well bred, especially for the Belmont Stakes and didn't have a bad race in the Derby, which is more random than anything. If he had run and sputtered in the Preakness, I'd agree, but now as a lightly raced (remember Bernardini in the Preakness? another AP indy) colt he has far more upside than most are giving him credit for. Again, he is lacking on experience but so are most. And he hasn't run twice in the previous 5 weeks.

[clicknow]

He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.

because there are no other exercise riders who can work a horse except his jockey, Mike Smith?

I somewhat liking Blended Citizen a tad better than Bravazo, but will have to watch a few more replay races.

Just to repeat myself.....this one is a live wire. If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point. This horse is in my exacta and trifectas and I can say that in advance with some confidence.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.

[clicknow]

It is hard to detect declining form.

It really depends on your what your system for judging that is. Based on what I see many players betting, it seems like the achilles heel is detecting INCREASING form.

[MadVindication]

It really depends on your what your system for judging that is. Based on what I see many players betting, it seems like the achilles heel is detecting INCREASING form.

A type of first impression bias, maybe.

[clicknow]

A type of first impression bias, maybe.

Well, I'm arguing the "Bravazo is an improving horse" over in another topic right now. I am not really sure the reasons for thinking that are at all sound. Not sure, but I'm just not seeing an improving horse, I'm seeing a horse who improves on Slop (like Exaggerator).

I DO like it when people tell me I'm wrong, since that is the only way I can see the other side of the coin .

[MadVindication]

Well, I'm arguing the "Bravazo is an improving horse" over in another topic right now. I am not really sure the reasons for thinking that are at all sound. Not sure, but I'm just not seeing an improving horse, I'm seeing a horse who improves on Slop (like Exaggerator).

I DO like it when people tell me I'm wrong, since that is the only way I can see the other side of the coin .

Bravazo is a good example of first impression bias. His bad races were tosses. But how can we look for a promising long odds horse without such incertainties? I think that's why Quip ended up being a kind of false favourite, he didn't have enough question marks on his resume, made him seem safer. But the opposite is true, according to my instincts. Just have to find when inconsistencies are better than unknowns, which is a coin toss in most cases.

I bet on Bravazo being an improving horse and will do it again. I don't think that he will fail in the Belmont. Other horses may best him but he will run as well or better than in the Derby or Preakness. He's training well right now, probably working on his turn of foot. He's going to be primed to have some explosivity down the stretch. I guess that's the obvious strategy but I think from his Preakness run he's shown he can do it. Tenfold too, but Tenfold kind of hung, I don't think from tiring but from herd instinct. Still, that's not the hardest obstacle to overcome.

It's just an odd statistical unlikelihood that there will be Justify-Bravazo-Tenfold repeat. Can't figure that out.

But I'm taking your advice on Blended Citizen, he's in. I actually like the horses that aren't fresh. Two or three weeks off a race is fine. Seeing as the Belmont is almost a marathon. I don't know anything about training horses but I don't think that conditioning for that long a run means more rest is better.

I like this interview with Lukas where he talks about advice he gave to Baffert on a horse. I mean if that old school mentality those guys have works it works. "Run that horse back in two weeks"

https://youtu.be/jBBmb0JXgnU?t=57s

[jocko699]

because there are no other exercise riders who can work a horse except his jockey, Mike Smith?



Just to repeat myself.....this one is a live wire. If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point. This horse is in my exacta and trifectas and I can say that in advance with some confidence.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.

I am sure he is just sitting there reading all your posts:lol::pound::pound:

[dilanesp]

https://youtu.be/jBBmb0JXgnU?t=57s

This is a really good interview.

[letswastemoney]

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day. Justify has been galloping around Churchill around 1 1/8 to 1 3/8 miles every morning since at least Thursday. I was even there one morning to watch it happen.

[clicknow]

I am sure he is just sitting there reading all your posts:lol::pound::pound:

Obviously you didn't get my drift about how horses are working out. Everyone knows that tenfold, bravazo and justify are all galloping 1-1/2 miles a day.

I was just impressed with how trainer is working Blended Citizen in comparison. I like interval type training and horse is working lights out.


As for interviews, too bad they didn't interview Dermot Weld.


I just saw Lukas at Oaklawn at Dawn or whatever they call it. I guess it's on you tube by now. He spun some interesting tales....Lukas is quite the entertainer/talker. Always enjoy his *spiels*. gave his autograph. I usually don't do that sort of thing, but heck, I was "right there" so I figured why not.

[clicknow]

Justify has been galloping around Churchill around 1 1/8 to 1 3/8 miles every morning since at least Thursday. I was even there one morning to watch it happen.

I was being sarcastic i.e. that bob is "taking it easy on him"..... I was comparing galloping to Blended's interval works, which look pretty awesome.

[Spalding No!]

If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.
Not sure why Blended Citizen, whose last start was May 12, and Vino Rosso, whose last start was May 5, would get "points" for breezing this week over the 3 principals from the Preakness.

It has barely been a week since the Preakness, so why would anyone expect those horses to have a recorded breeze? It took Blended Citizen 2 weeks to return to the worktab after his last race and Vino Rosso took 3 weeks.

It's dubious their 4 furlong moves somehow makes them more prepared for the Belmont than horses that just ran 9.5 furlongs a few days earlier.

[clicknow]

Not sure why Blended Citizen, whose last start was May 12, and Vino Rosso, whose last start was May 5, would get "points" for breezing this week

Obviously, you have not looked at Blended Citizen's works as of late. You only looked at his last "breezing". He has been doing what is basically interval training, since the end of April, with a race in between. And doing it lights out.


His gallops are looking pretty good, too, at least to my eye, he appears to like BEL track, gobbling up ground----leg action is a bit high, and dunno how a 1 turn at 9F would translate to Bel Stakes, but I just think he looks pretty good

. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQhrpFwDSmw

[Spalding No!]

Obviously, you have not looked at Blended Citizen's works as of late.
He has one work since his last race.

He is not "breezing".
Every work he's recorded in the past 60 days has been designated "breezing" by the clockers (at 4 different race tracks).

He has been doing what is basically interval training.
How's that? He has one timed workout per week on average.

[Blenheim]

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDqCbrMrD8E

[cj]

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.

[jocko699]

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.


:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

maybe he wants a fast track?

[GMB@BP]

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

[dilanesp]

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

Yeah, I use pace figures in some sprints, and calculate my own sustained pace numbers for turf routes. And while I do the best I can with those numbers, the reality is that my pace numbers would work best if every sprint race were a 6 furlong sprint and my sustained pace numbers would work best if every turf route was a mile.

[PaceMasterT]

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

I'm assuming that the LP numbers are scaled so that a 92 LP at 1 1/4 at CD is comparable to a 92 LP at 1 3/16 at PIM. Now that doesn't mean that a horse that is capable of running a 92 LP at one track and distance is capable of the same feat at another track and distance. You have to make subjective judgements. That is why it is called handicapping.

I will say that I don't trust the Brisnet numbers for Justify from the SA Derby. They seem artificially inflated to me (it seems to happen every year with a few of the 3yo Derby prep races, especially AQU). As far as the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are concerned, on the average, sloppy tracks tend to lead to races that go out faster than normal and slow down in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

maybe he wants a fast track?

Someone whose opinion I respect a lot believes he's been winning by overcoming the off tracks and will appreciate a fast track more.

[clicknow]

Someone whose opinion I respect a lot believes he's been winning by overcoming the off tracks and will appreciate a fast track more.

Unlike perhaps Bravazo... romps on mud when horse hasn't accomplished much in career are very suspect. I hope he takes a lot of money but I doubt there is a win in there anywhere. :)

[Robert Fischer]

he'll win easier in the Belmont mostly because of his hoof issue being well-controlled and being closer to 100% physical condition than he was leading up to the Preakness.

but yes, the narrative will be that he loved the fast track


adding: And lol, yes, maybe Bravazo who was 4th best in the Preakness (1-Justify, 2-GM, 3-Tenfold, 4-Bravazo)... will flatten-out and finish 6th or whatever, and his narrative will be that he's a mudder

[Blenheim]

Can't take nothin' away from Justify, he earned his right to run for the Triple and as a fan of the game, I like the idea as it is always good to have a run for the Crown and no doubt the Park will fill to capacity . . . NY, NY.

That 4fl work in 46.80 was sweet, but please show me the statistics and where it is written that one work will reverse a downward trending form cycle. Furthermore, he did that work at CD, lickety split fast track particularly on that day as Baffert thanked the trackman for settin' it up for him and Justify's suspect left rear - kinda bouncy I think the track was; he ran his last two on wet fast and as a speed horse he has caught all the good breaks, but now he is headed to NY, NY and Big Sandy . . . read Repole's NY, NY isn't particularly kind to strangers and that racetrack surface is kinda tiring and known to take a few good horses down.

Downward cycle, tiring surface couple that w/a NYorker who is bent on sending Baffert packin' and I think we've got ourselves a hoss race! Did I mention Repole was sending Noble Indy on a kamikaze mission? The draw is absolutely critical in this one as game over should Justify draw to the inside of Noble Indy.

The drama continues to thicken :ThmbUp: . . . nothin' like the Belmont Stakes.

[GMB@BP]

Downward cycle, tiring surface couple that w/a NYorker who is bent on sending Baffert packin' and I think we've got ourselves a hoss race! Did I mention Repole was sending Noble Indy on a kamikaze mission? Safe money bet that he will.

With a setup like this I am thinking its second mortgage time!!!!!!:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::headbanger:

[Blenheim]

With a setup like this I am thinking its second mortgage time!!!!!!:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::headbanger:


I wouldn't go that far, but ya' gotta figure if those two go, they both flame out, leaving the board wide open.

[Tom]

So Repole is entering a horse not to win, just to drag his knuckles on TV?
Real class act.

Is he using this as a rabbit for another horse he is entering, or just to prove to anyone who doesn't know what a jerk he is?

[Blenheim]

So Repole is entering a horse not to win, just to drag his knuckles on TV?
Real class act.

Is he using this as a rabbit for another horse he is entering, or just to prove to anyone who doesn't know what a jerk he is?




Repole is from Queens, it's all about NY, NY. "Some people get Derby fever, but I have Belmont fever," Repole said. "This is the number one race I've been dreaming about, the one I've wanted to win for 30 years."


The NY fans will love him for it . . .

[jocko699]

I wouldn't go that far, but ya' gotta figure if those two go, they both flame out, leaving the board wide open.


:pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::pound:

[Blenheim]

I love the Belmont, my favoritest race and the drama w/this one seems so much different than the Kentucky; man has that post draw ever been more critical? If Justify draws to the inside of Noble Indy . . . :cool:

[jocko699]

I love the Belmont, my favoritest race and the drama w/this one seems so much different than the Kentucky; man has that post draw ever been more critical? If Justify draws to the inside of Noble Indy . . . :cool:

Unless Justify's post position is at Aqueduct it really doesn't matter where he draws.

[FakeNameChanged]

Unless Justify's post position is at Aqueduct it really doesn't matter where he draws.
Good one. Almost tops your Mad Dog 20/20 line yesterday. Talk about an exacta.

[SkunkApe]

Unless Justify's post position is at Aqueduct it really doesn't matter where he draws.

Heh. I laughed.

:lol:

[Denny]

Repole is no jerk. People that call him a jerk are the real jerks. (Tom)

He grew up in my old neighborhood (i don't know him personally) like everybody else in an average working-class neighborhood.

Made his own way and fortune on his own. Not some spoiled rich kid born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

Believe he used to sneak into Aqueduct as a kid, like a lot of kids did.

He loves NY and is great for the sport imo and would love nothing more, like someone else said, to win the Belmont.

[Fager Fan]

Someone whose opinion I respect a lot believes he's been winning by overcoming the off tracks and will appreciate a fast track more.

There hasn't been as much talk as you'd think about how the muddy track mayve played into Justify's wins.

I've heard no mention, but I assume the tracks were sealed for both races, which means a tighter, faster surface. He also seemed to like the tighter, faster CA surface. But now he moves to big sandy, where he likely won't get a tighter, faster surface.

And it's not just about how he mayve moved up due to the past surfaces, but how the others were affected. When the winner was the one clean horse from the race, it tells you there that others were taking the worst of it.

So I wouldn't be assuming that he's going to fare better getting a dry track at Belmont.

[Fager Fan]

Repole is no jerk. People that call him a jerk are the real jerks. (Tom)

He grew up in my old neighborhood (i don't know him personally) like everybody else in an average working-class neighborhood.

Made his own way and fortune on his own. Not some spoiled rich kid born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

Believe he used to sneak into Aqueduct as a kid, like a lot of kids did.

He loves NY and is great for the sport imo and would love nothing more, like someone else said, to win the Belmont.

The segment where they showed him looking on from his office at his horse in a stall at WinStar via the cameras, where then he called WinStar to tell them he thought the horse was hungry, didn't flatter him. I don't know if he's a jerk, but he looked like one, and money can change people regardless of where they grew up.

[cj]

There hasn't been as much talk as you'd think about how the muddy track mayve played into Justify's wins.

I've heard no mention, but I assume the tracks were sealed for both races, which means a tighter, faster surface. He also seemed to like the tighter, faster CA surface. But now he moves to big sandy, where he likely won't get a tighter, faster surface.

And it's not just about how he mayve moved up due to the past surfaces, but how the others were affected. When the winner was the one clean horse from the race, it tells you there that others were taking the worst of it.

So I wouldn't be assuming that he's going to fare better getting a dry track at Belmont.

The Santa Anita surface has been anything but tight and fast this year.

[dilanesp]

There hasn't been as much talk as you'd think about how the muddy track mayve played into Justify's wins.

I've heard no mention, but I assume the tracks were sealed for both races, which means a tighter, faster surface. He also seemed to like the tighter, faster CA surface. But now he moves to big sandy, where he likely won't get a tighter, faster surface.

And it's not just about how he mayve moved up due to the past surfaces, but how the others were affected. When the winner was the one clean horse from the race, it tells you there that others were taking the worst of it.

So I wouldn't be assuming that he's going to fare better getting a dry track at Belmont.

There was nothing tight or fast about the Santa Anita Derby surface.

[Blenheim]

Agreed, the surface at Santa Anita was anything but tight and fast this year, no question about that.

But the wet/fast surfaces of the Kentucky and the Baltimore favors speed - they get out front and splish splash and can actually like the going while kicking high velocity dirt at everyone behind; the only track that may benefit speed even more is the surface Audible and Hofburg ran upon in the Florida where they had a light rain squall in between races, just enough to tighten it up . . . just enough to improve the performance a few lengths. Would have been interesting to see the variant before and after that squall . . .

Now onto NY, NY and Big Sandy - hostile territory w/a target on his back; deeper tiring surface, longer distance and he'll be under pressure; horse is up against it, but they gotta beat him . . . horse might have benefited from shipping to NY earlier and spent some time getting acclimated there.

It'll be interesting to see how far and fast Baffert works him next out.

[Tom]

Watchmaker's slant on Justify.....which I disagree with, but hopefully, everyone will listen to him and give a point or two more odds.

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justify

[RunForTheRoses]

Watchmaker's slant on Justify.....which I disagree with, but hopefully, everyone will listen to him and give a point or two more odds.

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justify

Yea, i dont think you can compare those two KD and P surfaces. Wettest days ever. Plus tfus had it not declinibg with pace factor.

[jay68802]

Ratings for the Belmont

Horse...............Rating.....ADJ to 1 1/2 Miles

Justify..............1,908.....1,912
Gronkoski.........1,842.....1,843
Blended Citizen..1,836.....1,837
Vino Roso..........1,836.....1,901
Hofburg............1,831.....1,872
Free Drop Billy...1,828.....1,832
Tenfold.............1,826.....1,873
Bandua.............1,826.....1,830
Noble Indy........1,824.....1,824
Bravazo............1,824.....1,756
Seahenge..........1,788.....1,751
Restoring Hope..1,772.....1,764

[minethatbird08]

Repole is no jerk. People that call him a jerk are the real jerks. (Tom)

He grew up in my old neighborhood (i don't know him personally) like everybody else in an average working-class neighborhood.

Made his own way and fortune on his own. Not some spoiled rich kid born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

Believe he used to sneak into Aqueduct as a kid, like a lot of kids did.

He loves NY and is great for the sport imo and would love nothing more, like someone else said, to win the Belmont.

From my understanding he has also remained close to the friends he had growing up. Not like he got rich and forgot his real friends. Again just what I’ve heard. Regardless, these things are always a tough call; I’m generally skeptical of personal interest stories but am equally skeptical when it comes to opinions people have regarding those more successful than themselves. However, there are some facts such as those you mentioned and Repoles own statements regarding the Belmont. None of those facts make him a jerk and Ill agree he is good for the sport.

[Blenheim]

Watchmaker's slant on Justify.....which I disagree with, but hopefully, everyone will listen to him and give a point or two more odds.

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justify




Thanks. Nice and important read.

[lamboguy]

Watchmaker's slant on Justify.....which I disagree with, but hopefully, everyone will listen to him and give a point or two more odds.

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justifyto me, in the Preakness, JUSTIFY ran as good a race as any horse could have ever run. for sure the time was on the slow side, but time isn't everything in horse racing.

[Mc990]

to me, in the Preakness, JUSTIFY ran as good a race as any horse could have ever run. for sure the time was on the slow side, but time isn't everything in horse racing.

If you're of that opinion, how does that shape your view of the horse for his next start on a 3 week turnaround? Was it a taxing race? Too taxing?

I'm not quite sure how to quantify the quality of his race based on the pace pressure he received but I'm confident that his Preakness was a regression and/or a very taxing effort.... neither of which bold well for the Belmont.