Preakness/Pimlico Special Pace

[classhandicapper]

Pimlico Special

23.19
47.25
111.58
136.36
155.51


Preakness

23.11
47.19
111.42
136.10
155.93

[GMB@BP]

Pimlico Special

23.19
47.25
111.58
136.36
155.51


Preakness

23.11
47.19
111.42
136.10
155.93

How similar were the days track variant wise?

[dilanesp]

Pimlico Special

23.19
47.25
111.58
136.36
155.51


Preakness

23.11
47.19
111.42
136.10
155.93

It says a lot.

Of course, Irish War Cry didn't have to go head and head, and I have never in my life been able to quantify the effect that a head and head battle has on horses.

[GMB@BP]

It says a lot.

Of course, Irish War Cry didn't have to go head and head, and I have never in my life been able to quantify the effect that a head and head battle has on horses.

I read an article that stated that the word "duel" in the race comment was run an it produced good results as a handicapping factor.

I believe in it and move horses up who dueled, especially those that do it in a protracted kind of way.

[Spalding No!]

Aside from the uncontested lead, Irish War Cry is an older horse, has roughly twice the starts of the either Justify or Good Magic, is a multiple graded stakes winner, and showed some Classic form last year when running second in the Belmont Stakes.

While he is clearly a colt with limitations when it comes to consistency or the ability to handle a contested pace, conditions were certainly made to order on Friday and he didn't disappoint with the ideal setup. For the sake of the older horse division, I would hope that he could run at least as fast as even the top colts from the 3yo division. The latter aren't supposed to outrun their elders (if they are going to) until the fall.

We probably saw Irish War Cry's best while its unlikely we saw the best from either Justify or Good Magic.

[Robert Fischer]

looks very similar

i don't know whether the track was about the same or if changes were made

i thought IWC ran a good race in the Pim Special, he returned to form and was a good price in hindsight. I didn't think he ran 'great' and I didn't think Justify ran 'great' either. Surprised IWC's wasn't a little bit faster. IWC was attempting to hold together a complete race while freshened and trained up, while Justify was attempting to fend off mediocre rivals after a grueling Derby and a rough 2 weeks that included a hoof reconstruction, shipping and no workout. Obvious that Justify is more talented, but from just superficially watching IWC's win, I had supposed that he went significantly faster than Justify's ugly preakness.

As far as pace, thought both races were moderate-to-fast.
Like I said, watched PIM SPC superficially, just know IWC, and the fact that he went fast enough to clear.
I did pay attention to the Preakness. It was a moderate-to-fast pace where the riders were aggressive, but sensible. They broke running, took the first turn carefully, opened up on the field a bit entering the backstretch and the top of the stretch while otherwise cruising. We know Justify pretty well now, as well as Bravazo (an E/P 5 speed horse).

As far as the duel, thought it was sensible other than the far turn when Mike and Justify hit Good Magic with a rock-solid brush. That was the main penalty that was delivered to Good Magic and Jose Ortiz for attempting to keep Justify and Mike Smith honest. The pace itself seemed fine. Good Magic ran really well after bottoming out in the Derby (he posed a threat to a huge winning race from Justify in the Derby, but then almost lost 2nd after appearing to have clearly proven that placing with only 1/16th to go, and then tiring badly). Neither horse was 100%, but other than Good Magic taking the hit from Justify on the far turn, the duel did not stop them from running 1-2.

checking the Beyers; IRISH WAR CRY 100, JUSTIFY 97... And i have no idea whether 0.4 seconds=3 points, or whether they thought the track was slightly different, or whether they used projections to come to their beyers without even actually comparing the two races whatsoever.

[cj]

https://image.ibb.co/nzWd1T/Spec_Preak.png

[Spalding No!]

https://image.ibb.co/nzWd1T/Spec_Preak.png
Maybe there isn't any hope for the older horse division. Irish War Cry got a nice little "weight break" on top of everything else.

[Robert Fischer]

timeformUS looks very accurate/reliable here

[classhandicapper]

timeformUS looks very accurate/reliable here

I think Timeform got it right also.

I figured putting up a race at the same distance with similar enough quality horses would help make the comparison. IMO, the evidence suggests the pace was mildly fast and contested but probably not fully worthy of being color coded as red. It also didn't totally collapse.