If Justify becomes the 2nd unbeaten Triple Crown winner...

[PowerUpPaynter]

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

[papillon]

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

An unbeaten TC with a 97 Beyer. :faint:

Real Quiet is rolling in his grave...a dirty head bob vs a 97 Beyer...:pout:

As to the question, it will depend on how sound he truly is I suppose. The NY Times article on as the hoof turns was far more enlightening than the racing puff pieces.

He had to have sugery as a two year old to correct a problem with his conformation (this must have been what Coolmore was talking about when they said they passed on him because he failed their vet check). Then he was sidelined for 2 months with muscle injury. Then, according to Baffert, he always gets scratches which supposedly makes horses act lame (which may be BS). Then he gets a bruise.

He seems to have had a lot of issue related down time as a two year old that belies Baffert's assertion he was able to build up a solid foundation from works. This may be why he was on fumes yesterday.

I found an article on bruises, it is possible his bruise is a function of his weight and an imbalance in his stance. That was one type, and he has a lot of tonage and has some conformation issues. FWIW the bruise article also said visible bruises are weeks ol.

Real Quiet is also rolling in his grave because Baffert said he never had a horse run faster than Justify in the Preakness.

Justify 1:55.93
Real Quiet 1:54.60

Just for fun, Lookin at Lucky 1:55.47

:bang:

Oh, before the raw times are garbage crowd chimes in, Baffert was using raw times, so apples to apples.

[dilanesp]

Justify is owned by basically the absolute worst people if you want to see a TC winner run on.

Thankfully he isn't going to win the thing.

[Tom]

I wouldn't put any faith in that 97.
And none at all in the raw times.
CJ's figure is much more believable and that puts him at about 108.

[SecretAgentMan]

I wouldn't put any faith in that 97.
And none at all in the raw times.
CJ's figure is much more believable and that puts him at about 108.




This^^^^^^



Don't fall for the 97 beyer BS

[sammy the sage]

All figure makers at one time or another....HAVE CHANGED figures at a LATER date...suspecting this time it will Beyer...

[Tom]

Beyer changes figures far more often than most would imagine.
I get the DRF Winners Books and track them for more than a couple of track. They don't usually change a lot, but sometimes you will see a 5,6,7 point change. Sometime whole days or weeks will change by a pint of two after he monitors his track to track performance. Good Quality Control. :ThmbUp:

Not a big deal because when you buy the PPs, you are getting the latest version. Being a 97 now means nothing if it is a 105 on Belmont Day. That is the fig people will be looking at in real time.

[pandy]

I wouldn't put any faith in that 97.
And none at all in the raw times.
CJ's figure is much more believable and that puts him at about 108.

But isn't a Timeform 108 similar to a Beyer 97? Tenfold and Diamond King had 108 Timeform figs coming into the Preakness. A 108 Timeform figure isn't that good. In the 14th race at Pimlico Saturday, a $35,000 starter allowance, three horses had Timeform figures of 108 or higher. The bottom line is, for whatever reason, using any speed figures, the Preakness was a slow race for a GR1, even for three year olds.

[sammy the sage]

From Haskin

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2018/05/20/preakness-wrap-up-and-away-we-go-again.aspx

""As for the final time of the Preakness, Justify ran almost three full seconds or 15 lengths faster than American Pharoah and Exaggerator did on sloppy tracks, and ran faster than I'll Have Another, Risen Star, War Emblem, Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler, and Carry Back did on fast tracks. And his 1:55 4/5 was the same time as Hall of Famer Alysheba ran on a fast track.""

Cj will be right this time...

[sammy the sage]

by the way....more historical facts about beaten lengths in Preakness...vs...what happens in the Belmont...

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2018/05/20/preakness-wrap-up-and-away-we-go-again.aspx

[GMB@BP]

But isn't a Timeform 108 similar to a Beyer 97? Tenfold and Diamond King had 108 Timeform figs coming into the Preakness. A 108 Timeform figure isn't that good. In the 14th race at Pimlico Saturday, a $35,000 starter allowance, three horses had Timeform figures of 108 or higher. The bottom line is, for whatever reason, using any speed figures, the Preakness was a slow race for a GR1, even for three year olds.

There is a 20-25 point gap between the two figures, on average.

108 is actually somewhere in the 80's.

124, which was the races base figure, is somewhere around 99-104 Beyer.

Timeform has the race faster by a few points, nothing crazy. Now adjusting for the fast pace boosts up the horses individual performance figure, which Beyer does not have built into his figures.

[Fager Fan]

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

There's no benefit to retiring a horse in good order in mid June given breeding season is 8 months away. Out of sight, out of mind for that length of time is even a detriment. The only reason he'd retire is if he's injured or does so poorly in training or racing that they risk demolishing his reputation. Good losses won't hurt him, just running up the track.

[Fager Fan]

There is a 20-25 point gap between the two figures, on average.

108 is actually somewhere in the 80's.

124, which was the races base figure, is somewhere around 99-104 Beyer.

Timeform has the race faster by a few points, nothing crazy. Now adjusting for the fast pace boosts up the horses individual performance figure, which Beyer does not have built into his figures.

This post had me go back at look at CJ's fig. I looked at something wrong earlier. I thought CJ gave this race a 140, and had that in my head when arguing against that fig. So apologies, CJ, I find a 124 to not be unreasonable.

[upthecreek]

This^^^^^^



Don't fall for the 97 beyer BS

“NBC’s Randy Moss: ‘When there's four horses right there at the wire, it means it was a slow race. It's gonna be tough for Justify to win the Belmont.’

“Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker: ‘It is plainly obvious -- to me, anyway -- that Justify tailed off his best form in the Preakness. His preliminary Beyer Figure of 97, the lowest of his career, is strong supporting evidence. But you didn’t have to know what Justify’s Beyer was to know that even though he won, his Preakness performance was short of what we have come to expect from him. For one, Justify had to dig deep to prevail despite getting a trip that was easier than the one he got in the Kentucky Derby, when he contested a scorching early pace and still bounded away from his field through the stretch.’

[dilanesp]

by the way....more historical facts about beaten lengths in Preakness...vs...what happens in the Belmont...

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2018/05/20/preakness-wrap-up-and-away-we-go-again.aspx

I think this is full of wishful thinking.

The author is rooting, not handicapping.

[lured]

Am I the only one who believes that Real Quiet missed the TC by more than just a "dirty head bob"? If he had held on, he should've been taken down anyway due to going sideways and crashing into Victory Gallop as he was ready to get passed.

[Robert Fischer]

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.

Ax Man will run Haskell/Travers

[dilanesp]

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.

Ax Man will run Haskell/Travers

Yep.

Or they would just trump up the injury.

Winstar is a breeding operation.

[classhandicapper]

I would not be totally shocked if Ax Man and/or McKinzie wind up being Baffert's Haskell, Travers and BC Classic horses.

[GMB@BP]

I would not be totally shocked if Ax Man and/or McKinzie wind up being Baffert's Haskell, Travers and BC Classic horses.

McKinzie hasnt even had a workout in 2 months so I gotta think August is a bit iffy for that horse, but he is very good.

Ax Man is at best a mile type horse, perfect trips its stretchable.

I would like to see them run him in the Woody Stephens.

[Secondbest]

Whatever happened to Nero?

[classhandicapper]

Whatever happened to Nero?

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.

[Secondbest]

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.

Thanks

[dasch]

Did Beyer incorporate the pace into the figure? They say they don't then they do, I really have no idea what they do race to race which is why I stopped looking at them 10 years ago. Timeform definitely includes pace so if Beyer did not these 2 numbers might not be all that far apart.

I personally do include pace and also ground loss and the race could not have matched any better than it did including the 2 pace setters and the horse who was last early. Everybody is talking about a speed bias but from what I see for the Preakness that track could not have been more fair.

Very simply, the best horse in the race and the 2nd best battled each other on the lead having little left for the stretch resulting in 2 inferior horses to close late and almost beat them both. This happens all the time when there is a perceived bias when actually there is not one.

IMO there won't be a Good Magic in the Belmont or any other capable of softening up Justify like that and he is 6 lengths better than Bravazo, Tenfold and others. The Belmont can definitely be an odd race some years but with 6 lengths to play with he can overcome a lot. The chance to beat him was the Preakness and he still was able to prevail.

[outofthebox]

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.
McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.

[Spalding No!]

McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.
The Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby are also coming up (and often come up light) and probably a better way to judge whether Ax Man has a future around two-turns or will ultimately cut back to one-turn like many of his half-siblings.

[Tom]

But isn't a Timeform 108 similar to a Beyer 97? Tenfold and Diamond King had 108 Timeform figs coming into the Preakness. A 108 Timeform figure isn't that good. In the 14th race at Pimlico Saturday, a $35,000 starter allowance, three horses had Timeform figures of 108 or higher. The bottom line is, for whatever reason, using any speed figures, the Preakness was a slow race for a GR1, even for three year olds.

I meant a 108 Beyer. He had a 128 TF fig. I use 20 points with good results. Sorry that was not clear. A 97 Beyer would make him the slowest Preakness since Beyers were published.

2017 Cloud Computing - 102
2016 Exaggerator - 101
2015 American Pharoah - 102
2014 California Chrome - 105
2013 Oxbow - 106
2012 I’ll Have Another - 109
2011 Shackleford - 104
2010 Lookin At Lucky - 102
2009 Rachel Alexandra - 108
2008 Big Brown - 100
2007 Curlin - 111
2006 Bernardini - 113
2005 Afleet Alex - 112
2004 Smarty Jones - 118
2003 Funny Cide - 114
2002 War Emblem - 109
2001 Point Given - 111
2000 Red Bullet - 109
1999 Charismatic - 107
1998 Real Quiet - 111
1997 Silver Charm - 118
1996 Louis Quatorze - 112
1995 Timber Country - 106
1994 Tabasco Cat - 112
1993 Prairie Bayou - 98
1992 Pine Bluff - 104
1991 Hansel - 117

[clicknow]

Justify is owned by basically the absolute worst people if you want to see a TC winner run on.


The Sport of Kings is now the Sport of Syndicates.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2j2u82w.jpg

They are businessmen, not race fans, looking for an investment. American Pharoah gets $200,000 per cover, can be done 4 times a day (and quickly, while the offspring are still unproven, and before the stud fees drop....this part is basically just a retail business. )

All I see are a bunch of very wealthy investors putting up at least $1mil each...... but how are they different than any of the real estate developers/hedge fund managers/luxury vacation and golf course owners/luxury merchandise marketers and Big Pharma execs types here in the U.S. ?

Businessmen trainers, businessmen owners. And yes, it is all about the breeding biz


"worst people" is subjective these days. :)

[clicknow]

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.



The word "publically" is for sure here. The PR machine behind the ownership is massive.

[PaceAdvantage]

An unbeaten TC with a 97 Beyer. :faint:

Real Quiet is rolling in his grave...a dirty head bob vs a 97 Beyer...:pout:

As to the question, it will depend on how sound he truly is I suppose. The NY Times article on as the hoof turns was far more enlightening than the racing puff pieces.

He had to have sugery as a two year old to correct a problem with his conformation (this must have been what Coolmore was talking about when they said they passed on him because he failed their vet check). Then he was sidelined for 2 months with muscle injury. Then, according to Baffert, he always gets scratches which supposedly makes horses act lame (which may be BS). Then he gets a bruise.

He seems to have had a lot of issue related down time as a two year old that belies Baffert's assertion he was able to build up a solid foundation from works. This may be why he was on fumes yesterday.

I found an article on bruises, it is possible his bruise is a function of his weight and an imbalance in his stance. That was one type, and he has a lot of tonage and has some conformation issues. FWIW the bruise article also said visible bruises are weeks ol.

Real Quiet is also rolling in his grave because Baffert said he never had a horse run faster than Justify in the Preakness.

Justify 1:55.93
Real Quiet 1:54.60

Just for fun, Lookin at Lucky 1:55.47

:bang:

Oh, before the raw times are garbage crowd chimes in, Baffert was using raw times, so apples to apples.LoneF - Part Deux

[Fager Fan]

I don't think they have the Rags number number yet, but it's being predicted to be a 7, which backs up the 98 Beyer.

[Redboard]

There's no benefit to retiring a horse in good order in mid June given breeding season is 8 months away. Out of sight, out of mind for that length of time is even a detriment. The only reason he'd retire is if he's injured or does so poorly in training or racing that they risk demolishing his reputation. Good losses won't hurt him, just running up the track.

I agree. And if they did retire him after a Belmont win, he'd only have six races on his resume, albeit all wins, but sturdiness and longevity counts as much as racing record.

[biggestal99]

I agree. And if they did retire him after a Belmont win, he'd only have six races on his resume, albeit all wins, but sturdiness and longevity counts as much as racing record.

confirmation problems. Yuck. he pass all that to his offspring.

better to breed to a correct scat daddy like No Nay Never (leading 2 year old sire) or Caravaggio.

If Coolmore took a pass, that says A LOT. (they never met a scat daddy they did not like.)

Allan

[classhandicapper]

McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.

I thought I read that he was tack walking a week or so ago and was scheduled to start doing more. I figured he'd be at the galloping stage by now.

[Tom]

Using the 97 Beyer assigned the race, it falls exactly in line with all the other routes that day, the way I use the Beyer variant to create a Quirin Pac/Speed number. The race gets a Quirin 122-110.
The performance fig for that would be (122+110)/2 = 116 Quirin.
If I substitute a 107 Beyr for the 97, it would come out to be a 107 Beyer, or a 127 TF. The Special fall right in line as well.
The pace is the difference. I convert everything to the Quirin scale because I have been using them since the late 70s and understand them.

So, IMHO, for a speed figure, the 97 is correct. As a performance number, the 116 is real life. And that lines up nicely with TF figs.

[rastajenk]

Looks like Preakness Beyers are experiencing shrinkage just like Derby Beyers.

[classhandicapper]

Looks like Preakness Beyers are experiencing shrinkage just like Derby Beyers.

It's kind of odd that the Grade 1 figures seemed to be shrinking for quite awhile, but in the last few years we've had a flurry of big figures again.

Arrogate 122, 120, 119
American Pharaoh 120
Frosted 123
California Chrome 119
Gun Runner 120
Send It In 119

However, the Triple Crown figures remain lower than the long term Pars even though in some cases it seemed like some of the horses and crops were very good on other criteria.

[outofthebox]

I thought I read that he was tack walking a week or so ago and was scheduled to start doing more. I figured he'd be at the galloping stage by now.This was from Baffert on the Byk show Monday. It's not uncommon to walk under tack for a couple of weeks.

[dilanesp]

It's kind of odd that the Grade 1 figures seemed to be shrinking for quite awhile, but in the last few years we've had a flurry of big figures again.

Arrogate 122, 120, 119
American Pharaoh 120
Frosted 123
California Chrome 119
Gun Runner 120
Send It In 119

However, the Triple Crown figures remain lower than the long term Pars even though in some cases it seemed like some of the horses and crops were very good on other criteria.

Well, horses are so much more lightly raced now going into the TC.

(Which is evidence for the fact that light racing schedules are not the product of what is best for the horse's form, but rather of breeders' imperatives.)

[JustRalph]

Do women know about shrinkage?

[classhandicapper]

Well, horses are so much more lightly raced now going into the TC.

If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????

[clicknow]

If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????

There were plenty of horses in the KY Derby who had "bottom", i.e. trainers worked and raced some pretty decent furlongs into them at age 2.

My Boy Jack, Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Firenze Fire, Combatant. Solomini, Bolt d'Oro to name some specifically.

[dilanesp]

If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????

Assume the following. You are Elliott Walden or one of the other racing operation managers of one of these big breeding stables.

1. The breeding value of winning a TC race can be astronomical.
2. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, there is a significant chance that the horse may suffer some sort of injury and will never make it to the TC.
3. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, while there is an upside of possibly building the horse's form up so he or she can run a big number, there is also a downside that the horse could get worn out or regress before the TC.
4. Most of the entries in the TC are controlled by big breeding operations with the same imperatives you have and thus you are unlikely to see a strong entry with a lot of racing experience.

Now, in that situation, is it more rational for a breeding operation to put a lot of starts into the horse, or just try to time the horse's form so he is good enough to win with a peak effort on the first Saturday in May?

At any rate, that's my hypothesis. Note when we still see a horse with a more traditional record, like California Chrome, and a lot of talent, that horse can beat the big breeding operations in the Derby.

[GMB@BP]

What Justify is doing is so rare and difficult, if it becomes the model for anyone I predict great failure.

[dilanesp]

What Justify is doing is so rare and difficult, if it becomes the model for anyone I predict great failure.

I think if it had happened 30 years ago this would be true. But at this point I thought it was pretty much overdetermined that some horse would do it (and I cashed a ticket on Justify in the Derby).

Most horses who are pointed to the Derby fail. But in a world where Derbies are won with 103 Beyers and everyone is trying to time their lightly raced horse's peak to occur on Derby day, what Justify is doing is not rare or difficult anymore.

If some major operation which gets the most expensive yearlings decided to campaign those horses the old fashioned way, however, they would on occasion produce a horse who could run a 110 Beyer on Derby day, and kick everyone's butt.

[thaskalos]

“NBC’s Randy Moss: ‘When there's four horses right there at the wire, it means it was a slow race. It's gonna be tough for Justify to win the Belmont.’

“Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker: ‘It is plainly obvious -- to me, anyway -- that Justify tailed off his best form in the Preakness. His preliminary Beyer Figure of 97, the lowest of his career, is strong supporting evidence. But you didn’t have to know what Justify’s Beyer was to know that even though he won, his Preakness performance was short of what we have come to expect from him. For one, Justify had to dig deep to prevail despite getting a trip that was easier than the one he got in the Kentucky Derby, when he contested a scorching early pace and still bounded away from his field through the stretch.’

This decides it for me. Justify is a shoo-in for the Belmont. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

This decides it for me. Justify is a shoo-in for the Belmont. :ThmbUp:I'm inclined to agree...:lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Assume the following. You are Elliott Walden or one of the other racing operation managers of one of these big breeding stables.

1. The breeding value of winning a TC race can be astronomical.
2. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, there is a significant chance that the horse may suffer some sort of injury and will never make it to the TC.
3. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, while there is an upside of possibly building the horse's form up so he or she can run a big number, there is also a downside that the horse could get worn out or regress before the TC.
4. Most of the entries in the TC are controlled by big breeding operations with the same imperatives you have and thus you are unlikely to see a strong entry with a lot of racing experience.

Now, in that situation, is it more rational for a breeding operation to put a lot of starts into the horse, or just try to time the horse's form so he is good enough to win with a peak effort on the first Saturday in May?

At any rate, that's my hypothesis. Note when we still see a horse with a more traditional record, like California Chrome, and a lot of talent, that horse can beat the big breeding operations in the Derby.




While it's possible to build a case for waiting until 3yo (may not hold up to critical thinking and be a 'good' case, but I'm respecting the 'possibility' of building such a case...), it should be noted that horses like Justify and Magnum Moon were not strategically pointed for 3yo debuts.

They had problems that delayed their start until 3yo.

That's why Magnum Moon was a toss in the Derby, after his 2yo problems resurfaced and he tried to visit the rail-birds during the Arkansas
stretch run, and why the racing world stopped (or should have) when Justify's heel was questionable following the Preakness.

Curses are not real.

Winstar Farm and China Horse Club didn't actually call in Hank Goldberg to break out a Ouija board to exorcise Apollo's ghost.

They also didn't try to innovate and skip a 2yo season in hopes of a quick form cycle.

These are businessmen with a business model and money to buy the best horses, trainers, jockeys and meds. This isn't Billy Beane 'moneyball'. This is cream of the crop with touch of media and a group of investors.


Good, Stakes-level colts are targeted to start as two year olds.

That is where you look out from when you stand on the shoulders of the giants. You look out from a view where you start a good colt at 2yo.

Some, like Justify, Magnum Moon, Battle of Midway, Patch, Materiality, Verrazano, etc, etc... didn't start as 2yo...

This is not because the connections decided to innovate instead of standing on the shoulders of giants, - this is because there were problems that delayed the debut.

Will someone ever try to innovate and point to 3yo? Sure.

It's just not the case with Justify or Magnum Moon.

[dilanesp]

While it's possible to build a case for waiting until 3yo (may not hold up to critical thinking and be a 'good' case, but I'm respecting the 'possibility' of building such a case...), it should be noted that horses like Justify and Magnum Moon were not strategically pointed for 3yo debuts.

They had problems that delayed their start until 3yo.

That's why Magnum Moon was a toss in the Derby, after his 2yo problems resurfaced and he tried to visit the rail-birds during the Arkansas
stretch run, and why the racing world stopped (or should have) when Justify's heel was questionable following the Preakness.

Curses are not real.

Winstar Farm and China Horse Club didn't actually call in Hank Goldberg to break out a Ouija board to exorcise Apollo's ghost.

They also didn't try to innovate and skip a 2yo season in hopes of a quick form cycle.

These are businessmen with a business model and money to buy the best horses, trainers, jockeys and meds. This isn't Billy Beane 'moneyball'. This is cream of the crop with touch of media and a group of investors.


Good, Stakes-level colts are targeted to start as two year olds.

That is where you look out from when you stand on the shoulders of the giants. You look out from a view where you start a good colt at 2yo.

Some, like Justify, Magnum Moon, Battle of Midway, Patch, Materiality, Verrazano, etc, etc... didn't start as 2yo...

This is not because the connections decided to innovate instead of standing on the shoulders of giants, - this is because there were problems that delayed the debut.

Will someone ever try to innovate and point to 3yo? Sure.

It's just not the case with Justify or Magnum Moon.

I think this is half true.

There ARE two innovations here:

1. That even if you may want to get to the racetrack earlier than Justify did, you are not trying to win a bunch of 2 year old stakes. You used to see horses go Sanford-Hopeful-Cowdin-Champagne-Laurel Futurity or Hollywood Juvenile-Del Mar Futurity-Norfolk-Hollywood Futurity. You never see that anymore. The big operations are trying to keep something in the tank so that they can peak on Derby day and want to race very lightly as a 2 year old.

2. In the old days, a horse with Justify's physical problems who didn't start until the winter would have never been pointed to the TC.

[Spalding No!]

2. In the old days, a horse with Justify's physical problems who didn't start until the winter would have never been pointed to the TC.
I think this unfortunately is the key as far future trends. No one's going to be shy about pushing a good colt even if he has an untimely setback. Should be good for a whole bunch of more wastage courtesy of the Triple Crown.

What's interesting is that Baffert showed patience with both Arrogate and West Coast in the preceding years--and had remarkable success with both as a result-- but chose to push Justify. That seems to say something about Justify's quality and ability.

Doesn't mean he can take all this pressure.

We'll also probably get a double whammy of light winter campaigns for the Derby in the future, 2yo races or not. And again, Baffert is at the forefront of this. In 2014, American Pharoah had what proved to be a "timely" injured that kept him out of the BC Juvenile and perhaps benefited from an early end to his 2yo season, which then allowed Baffert to tailor his early 3yo campaign perfectly with just 2 easy preps. I suppose the points system will keep this from getting too far out of hand.

[clicknow]

What's interesting is that Baffert showed patience with both Arrogate and West Coast in the preceding years--and had remarkable success with both as a result-- but chose to push Justify. That seems to say something about Justify's quality and ability.

or it says something about the owners......

[dilanesp]

or it says something about the owners......

+1

[Robert Fischer]

I think this is half true.

There ARE two innovations here:

1. That even if you may want to get to the racetrack earlier than Justify did, you are not trying to win a bunch of 2 year old stakes. You used to see horses go Sanford-Hopeful-Cowdin-Champagne-Laurel Futurity or Hollywood Juvenile-Del Mar Futurity-Norfolk-Hollywood Futurity. You never see that anymore. The big operations are trying to keep something in the tank so that they can peak on Derby day and want to race very lightly as a 2 year old.

2. In the old days, a horse with Justify's physical problems who didn't start until the winter would have never been pointed to the TC.

Fair enough:ThmbUp:

[LemonSoupKid]

This decides it for me. Justify is a shoo-in for the Belmont. :ThmbUp:

Haha, Moss doesn't bother me so much as Watchmaker

I've never seen the guy really get a pick right, I swear even when he hits those multirace stabs he takes, he pays out so much less than he risked ...

He should just bet heavy on big favorites, that is a way to play both wagers, just need to pick your spots.

MW is the biggest mush I've seen in racing, for a major writer, no doubt

[dilanesp]

Haha, Moss doesn't bother me so much as Watchmaker

I've never seen the guy really get a pick right, I swear even when he hits those multirace stabs he takes, he pays out so much less than he risked ...

He should just bet heavy on big favorites, that is a way to play both wagers, just need to pick your spots.

MW is the biggest mush I've seen in racing, for a major writer, no doubt

It's actually quite hard to be a public handicapper.

One of the big things is that you are basically expected to handicap the major races. I was rooting for Eddie O on NBC to come on the Preakness telecast and say he was passing the Preakness. He surely knew that this is the best thing to do with a race like that, but I am sure NBC also lets him know that he is expected to recommend a bet.

(And of course the people who handicap all the races on the card are not allowed to ever recommend passing any race.)

I think Watchmaker's analysis isn't particularly deep or anything, but it's reasonably intelligent. As are most public handicappers. But they are always going to get stuff wrong or be recommending some low paying bets-- because they are expected to "bet" every race they comment on.