2018 Belmont Stakes

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Should be a lot of anticipation for this one, as we have a Triple Crown contender running in Justify.


After his Derby and Preakness wins, he does look beatable, so the wagering public will likely be out en masse as will a number of contenders to take the unbeaten monster down.



This is popcorn ready kind of stuff. :popcorn:


As for probables/possibles?:


Justify
Audible
Hofburg
Bravazo
Vino Rosso
My Boy Jack
Tenfold
Blended Citzen
Solomini
Machismo
Free Drop Billy
Gronkowski


I'm sure more names will come about in the next couple of weeks.



Bart Scott may have said it best: "Can't wait!".



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBaYVo89mmY

[jay68802]

Who is going to push Justify? I am looking to see if a "rabbit" is going to be entered.

[GMB@BP]

Who is going to push Justify? I am looking to see if a "rabbit" is going to be entered.

I think Justify is very comfortable rating in 2nd or 3rd from a good post, the track conditions has kind of forced the hand.

I am hoping for a dry track, it probably wont be.

[MadVindication]

I think Justify is very comfortable rating in 2nd or 3rd from a good post, the track conditions has kind of forced the hand.

I am hoping for a dry track, it probably wont be.

Me too. A wet track would make Vino Rosso a toss. I want to see him have a good race and if he can best Bravazo or not.

[letswastemoney]

I doubt Audible runs because of WinStar. It would be a surprise anyway.

[Grits]

I doubt Audible runs because of WinStar. It would be a surprise anyway.

If they ran Quip, most likely, they will have no problem, whatsoever, running Audible.

Remember, they are, first and foremost, a breeding operation. Justify isn't a lock for the Triple Crown. Any three year old they own that nails the distance of the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes is very good for their stallion roster.

Was Pletcher even in Baltimore yesterday? If not, he was likely at home in Floral Park sitting in front of his big screen TV, smiling. :)

[Thomas Roulston]

Should be a lot of anticipation for this one, as we have a Triple Crown contender running in Justify.


After his Derby and Preakness wins, he does look beatable, so the wagering public will likely be out en masse as will a number of contenders to take the unbeaten monster down.



This is popcorn ready kind of stuff. :popcorn:


As for probables/possibles?:


Justify
Audible
Hofburg
Bravazo
Vino Rosso
My Boy Jack
Tenfold
Blended Citzen
Solomini
Machismo
Free Drop Billy
Gronkowski


I'm sure more names will come about in the next couple of weeks.



Bart Scott may have said it best: "Can't wait!".



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBaYVo89mmY


Where's Instilled Regard?

[clicknow]

Me too. A wet track would make Vino Rosso a toss. I want to see him have a good race and if he can best Bravazo or not.


Any kind of crowd would make Vino Rosso a toss. Horse was a nervous wreck with the Derby crowd

[n.c]

owned by Justify owners, i think. So the horse might not run.

[clicknow]

Where's Instilled Regard?

Thomas, he was taken out of training. Also Selcourt.

[clicknow]

With more and more horses owned by syndicates, partners, (a trend that will continue and grow), if they didn't run due to common ownership there would barely be any horses on the tracks pretty soon.

I think not running them in prep races against each other is one thing, but running them in the big G1 races isn't a problem. In order to avoid each other they would all be lessening their chances across the board and would make no sense, financially, to sit out races where horses have a shot, esp. for their racing history/breeding fees..

[Grits]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Tattooed/5_Horses_Who_Could_End_Justifys_Triple_Crown_123


Following the piece, there are some interesting comments. What I believed a few days ago, I still believe...people do care who connections are and what connections decide as it pertains to their horses.


In the past, I've felt differently. When it's my money, only then, do I have the right to an opinion about where my horse goes. And even then, my opinion isn't worth much. I should leave this to my trainer.


But, in the long term, I feel if horses are taken out of the Belmont for one entry by those who own multiple entries this will be seen as this poster noted...manipulation of a Triple Crown.



It's not a matter of where will Audible run if not allowed to run in the Belmont. The real question is why not, and why are we ignoring this potential manipulation.
We should be asking or realizing that partnerships are growing into conglomerates too big to fail with the power of manipulating outcomes to their advantage and manufacturing champions. If they don't run Audible it is for only one reason, he is a threat to beat Justify and if Audible is out and Justify wins, he isn't my champion.It's a shame if he doesn't because he would destroy Justify. The owners want an easier race for Justify to get the money but if they want a Belmont win they need Audible not Justify.And are you ok with the owners pulling the horse that can beat him out of the race to make things easier on what might be our newest triple crown champ? How could anyone be ok with that. Soon the conglomerates will be a few and they will own everything and dictate what transpires.But he 100 percent should run. It's the right thing to do and he merits a run.

[minethatbird08]

If they ran Quip, most likely, they will have no problem, whatsoever, running Audible.

Remember, they are, first and foremost, a breeding operation. Justify isn't a lock for the Triple Crown. Any three year old they own that nails the distance of the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes is very good for their stallion roster.

Was Pletcher even in Baltimore yesterday? If not, he was likely at home in Floral Park sitting in front of his big screen TV, smiling. :)

Audible has a G1 win and a 3rd place in a Classic, Quip needs a better resume for the breeding shed. Plus Audible doesn't have the best feet, at least from what I've read, so perfect reason to skip this one.

[Robert Fischer]

Run Audible?


this one is simple; YES

If Justify is doing at all well, he'll romp in the Belmont. Audible at best runs a non-threatening 2nd in that scenario. Justify is faster, and has better stamina.
While the added distance will help Audible's poor tactical speed(he'll be able to sit reasonably close without a full-drive), he's not going to really love added distance and a fair setup(a mild pace).

He's not a threat, so they may as well tell them both to try to win.

If (like some on this board,) they were worried that Audible may be capable of a big race to spoil their Triple Crown by surpassing an otherwise winning effort from Justify, they'd instruct for a belated back-door rally.

As long as Audible doesn't flatten out badly, it will visibly look about the same, so everyone can feel they were right. :ThmbUp:

[Thomas Roulston]

I left a comment about Instilled Regard on a Horse Racing Nation article about the Belmont - and a respondent who seems to know what he's talking about thinks that Instilled Regard is indeed being considered for the Belmont despite the article itself not mentioning him.

[Secondbest]

I left a comment about Instilled Regard on a Horse Racing Nation article about the Belmont - and a respondent who seems to know what he's talking about thinks that Instilled Regard is indeed being considered for the Belmont despite the article itself not mentioning him.

Article in yesterdays DRF with his trainer said he is being taken out of training for a while.No reason given.

[Spalding No!]

I left a comment about Instilled Regard on a Horse Racing Nation article about the Belmont - and a respondent who seems to know what he's talking about thinks that Instilled Regard is indeed being considered for the Belmont despite the article itself not mentioning him.
You need a DRF to view full article, but:

https://t.co/FmO0k5FFXf

The trainer himself is quoted as saying the horse is at a farm and "on a break" and gave no timetable for his return.

[metro]

Who is going to push Justify? I am looking to see if a "rabbit" is going to be entered.

Do they even enter "rabbits" in big races these days? Can't remember the last time I saw one. If they do it will have little to no bearing on the outcome, just gives Mike Smith and Justify a target to run at.

[Fightingirish51195]

Do they even enter "rabbits" in big races these days? Can't remember the last time I saw one. If they do it will have little to no bearing on the outcome, just gives Mike Smith and Justify a target to run at.

The last one i can remember was shining copper who was used in a rabbit in some graded stakes. It was a joke because that horse is a good horse. I think he actually almost won once when being used as a rabbit.

Maybe im wrong here, but when i think rabbit, I think of a horse thats in there not to win. If someone puts a speed horse in there with the ability to go a distance of ground with justify, it doesnt make that horse a rabbit neccessarily.

There is pretty much no speed other than justify on the probables list. If no one goes with the horse he probably wins, but sometimes horses stop on their own in this race.

[MadVindication]

I hope Audible and My Boy Jack run, or some hype contender materializes out of the woodwork, anything that can potentially lengthen Bravazo's odds. And I'd love to watch him beat Audible by a nose :popcorn:

[Fightingirish51195]

I hope Audible and My Boy Jack run, or some hype contender materializes out of the woodwork, anything that can potentially lengthen Bravazo's odds. And I'd love to watch him beat Audible by a nose :popcorn:

Yes... Bravazo will keep running. Horse is a fighter. Might be even better for him if it turns wet

[PaceAdvantage]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Tattooed/5_Horses_Who_Could_End_Justifys_Triple_Crown_123


Following the piece, there are some interesting comments. What I believed a few days ago, I still believe...people do care who connections are and what connections decide as it pertains to their horses.


In the past, I've felt differently. When it's my money, only then, do I have the right to an opinion about where my horse goes. And even then, my opinion isn't worth much. I should leave this to my trainer.


But, in the long term, I feel if horses are taken out of the Belmont for one entry by those who own multiple entries this will be seen as this poster noted...manipulation of a Triple Crown.This is a ridiculous article IMO.

I have a feeling if these owners weren't from China, we wouldn't be reading half the criticisms they've been dealt this TC season.

Audible would DESTROY Justify? Did LoneF write that piece?

[Fager Fan]

This is a ridiculous article IMO.

I have a feeling if these owners weren't from China, we wouldn't be reading half the criticisms they've been dealt this TC season.

Audible would DESTROY Justify? Did LoneF write that piece?

You're on a roll with ridiculous posts. Now you're playing the race card?

[Grits]

This is a ridiculous article IMO.

I have a feeling if these owners weren't from China, we wouldn't be reading half the criticisms they've been dealt this TC season.

Audible would DESTROY Justify? Did LoneF write that piece?

There's not anything wrong with the HR Nation piece. You may not like the comments that follow, but those shouldn't give you cause to find the piece flawed.

American Pharaoh and Justify's campaigns combined wouldn't be able to hold a candle to the number of comments posted here at PA about Big Brown, Rick Dutrow and Michael Ivarrone et al years ago.

[Dream_Police]

Solomini is not running in the Belmont.

[PaceAdvantage]

There's not anything wrong with the HR Nation piece. You may not like the comments that follow, but those shouldn't give you cause to find the piece flawed.

American Pharaoh and Justify's campaigns combined wouldn't be able to hold a candle to the number of comments posted here at PA about Big Brown, Rick Dutrow and Michael Ivarrone et al years ago.You're dead right on one thing...there is nothing wrong with the article. My apologies. It was the comments section. Again, my mistake.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're on a roll with ridiculous posts. Now you're playing the race card?Coming from you, I'll take that as a compliment.

[Thomas Roulston]

Thomas, he was taken out of training. Also Selcourt.


Then I don't fancy anybody in the Belmont (besides Justify).

[BlueChip@DRF]

If there are more than 8 entries, then we will not have a TC winner.

[clicknow]

Given the early BRIS PPs for the Belmont Stakes, I've eliminated Justify and Audible from the win spot. :) So hope they both run and take a lot of $$.

[MadVindication]

Given the early BRIS PPs for the Belmont Stakes, I've eliminated Justify and Audible from the win spot. :) So hope they both run and take a lot of $$.

What in those PPs encouraged that decision?

[clicknow]

Given the early BRIS PPs for the Belmont Stakes, I've eliminated Justify and Audible from the win spot. :) So hope they both run and take a lot of $$.

oops sorry, I meant Vino Rosso and Audible.

[clicknow]

What in those PPs encouraged that decision?

I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.

I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.

The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F. :bang:

PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.

Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.

[MadVindication]

I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.

I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.

The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F. :bang:

PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.

Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.

:ThmbUp:

I agree with you there. and will do mostly odds/pedigree. Performance wise I like what I seen from tenfold keeping a steady run. Since most the jockeys will be experienced what else is there when theres those unknowns.

[clicknow]

I'd be very surprised if Audible goes in the Belmont. No works since the KY Derby. :confused:

[Fager Fan]

Coming from you, I'll take that as a compliment.

Ooh, Good one!

[f2tornado]

From the breeding angles, before Tapit progeny started winning the race (Hofburg potentially represents this year) the Raise A Native sire line coupled with the Northern Dancer dam sire line was red hot. Blended Citizen and Solomini fit this mold. Buckpasser-x hoses have done well. Vino Rosso, Audible, Bravazo, and Hofburg fit. Fast closing fractions at 9F have translated to Belmont winners. Justify, Vino Rosso, Audible, Hofburg, and perhaps others hit on this angle. Early speed also helps. Horses sitting more than 3-4 lengths off the leaders at the 3/4 in a big prep tend to miss the win pool in the Belmont. Justify, Audible, Hofburg, Blended Citizen. Horses within that margin at the mile pole in a crown race also work. Tenfold.

I plan on playing against Justify this time but still gotta pick the right horse(s). a lot to choose from before comparing figures. Hofburg seemingly fits most angles and I might simply play him over all/all.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe we can start calling the Apollo phenomenon the blessing of Apollo not the curse of Apollo. Since starts are getting more and more infrequent for younger horses and careers delayed it makes sense that the curse of 1882 was going to fall. But getting to this point with 3 races in 5 weeks and going 12 furlongs the bright shining hope will falter by the lack of seasoning and foundation and too much too soon, if only for a day, dropping gifts into our greedy arms!:cool:

[dilanesp]

I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.

I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.

The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F. :bang:

PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.

Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.

Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.


That was an underrated field. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Medal Count all had solid pedigrees for the Belmont. Wicked Strong and General a Rod's weren't too shabby either.

[jocko699]

Bypassing the Belmont

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/My_Boy_Jack_to_bypass_Belmont_Stakes_2018_run_on_t urf_123

[clicknow]

Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.

Yes, you remember correctly. I couldn't wait to get to the track that day. And one of the best 12F trainer in the nation (IMHO) Clement had Tonalist. How did he go off at such long odds...

BTW, a horse who was in that race, trained by Mott, and ridden by Mike Smith (eased in the stretch) is now running (very) low level claiming races at Horsemen's Park. He's on his 48 start or something. His current entry is for a $2,500 claiming race.

Matuszak, who is now 7 years old. Hope he gets a retirement....doesn't look promising.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That was an underrated field. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Medal Count all had solid pedigrees for the Belmont. Wicked Strong and General a Rod's weren't too shabby either.

I took Medal Count in all 3 spots of the tri and blew that one up. Was my last big score in the TC events.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yes, you remember correctly. I couldn't wait to get to the track that day. And one of the best 12F trainer in the nation (IMHO) Clement had Tonalist. How did he go off at such long odds...

BTW, a horse who was in that race, trained by Mott, and ridden by Mike Smith (eased in the stretch) is now running (very) low level claiming races at Horsemen's Park. He's on his 48 start or something. His current entry is for a $2,500 claiming race.

Matuszak, who is now 7 years old. Hope he gets a retirement....doesn't look promising.

Looking back I have no idea why I didn't bet Tonalist! I was not convinced of Chrome.

[Fightingirish51195]

Looks like noble Indy is being pointed to the Belmont. He was the most outside speed and the derby where there was plenty of speed in that race and it was wet. That’s a throw away race for me. He ran against it in the LA derby. I expect a much better effort should he run in this race

[picojim]

I'd be very surprised if Audible goes in the Belmont. No works since the KY Derby. :confused:

Audible out of Belmont
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Audible_out_of_Belmont_Stakes_2018_Pletcher_may_ru n_two_123

[Redboard]

My Boy Jack Bypassing the Belmont

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/My_Boy_Jack_to_bypass_Belmont_Stakes_2018_run_on_t urf_123

So much for this year’s TC trail “wise guy horse.” I still don’t know who exactly bet him down in the derby to run as the 2nd favorite? :confused: Was it truly the wise guys or was it the name-bettors who liked their uncle jack, or whoever?
Anyway, the connections made the right move, deep closers don’t necessarily do better stretching out, in fact, the opposite is more often true.

[Fightingirish51195]

So much for this year’s TC trail “wise guy horse.” I still don’t know who exactly bet him down in the derby to run as the 2nd favorite? :confused: Was it truly the wise guys or was it the name-bettors who liked their uncle jack, or whoever?
Anyway, the connections made the right move, deep closers don’t necessarily do better stretching out, in fact, the opposite is more often true.

My boy jack came with a pretty good run on a day when being wide wasn’t really that good.

Never mind I misread what you said

[Lemon Drop Husker]

So much for this year’s TC trail “wise guy horse.” I still don’t know who exactly bet him down in the derby to run as the 2nd favorite? :confused: Was it truly the wise guys or was it the name-bettors who liked their uncle jack, or whoever?
Anyway, the connections made the right move, deep closers don’t necessarily do better stretching out, in fact, the opposite is more often true.


Story I heard was some big conglomerate out of the NY area put down some early heat on him when wagering opened on Friday. Not sure how true that is, but the wagering kept happening right up till post time regardless of who it was. I'm sure the name had some to do with it, but major money and players aren't betting on names.



He had zero business being the 2nd favorite in that race. Especially when the track came up as a pure swamp and him needing to likely pass 17 to 19 horses in order to win.

[clicknow]

So much for this year’s TC trail “wise guy horse.”

Was he the wise guy horse? WGH usually goes off at higher odds. I thought the wiseguy horse has been Hofburg and is still Hofburg?

[rastajenk]

Was he the wise guy horse? WGH usually goes off at higher odds.
Historically I think you are accurate, but I also think that this year the WGH got pounded early and often enough to create a cascade of support. In the history of wise guy horses, this one is some kind of outlier.