Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/998235819058970624

[MadVindication]

I think he will take the triple crown, but will bet against him modestly. I had Bravazo as the one to beat him in the preakness. Probably will do the same thing, odds depending.

[dilanesp]

I will not include Justify on a single ticket.

[davew]

I am just going to watch the replay.

[Fightingirish51195]

Bravazo isn’t much? Hahaha okay

[Robert Fischer]

If you see him put in 1 good work between now and the Belmont, he'll be a 'single'(in the sense that you won't want to bet against him, but there's no bet unless there's a false favorite in preceding legs).

If he can only gallop up to the Belmont, and has more hoof work done, take a shot or pass.

He won the Preakness on about 80%. He put away Good Magic at about 80%. There's talk about Bravazo or Tenfold 'almost winning'. At no point did they look like a winner or were even involved in the race that Justify and Good Magic were running. They sucked up and got closer near the wire and would have needed the finish line to get up and run away. (Kinda like Audible's so-called competitive race with Good Magic in the Derby).
He did all this after running the Derby on a bad hoof, coming out 'off'(lame may be technically correct, but is a poor word choice in this context) and then being medicated, and having his hoof reconstructed, being shipped, and limited to jogs and slow gallops with only 2 weeks time.

If you see him put in a good work before the Belmont, there's a good chance that he's as close to 100% as he's been since the optional claimer race in March.

He's got 3 weeks, a better hoof, less shipping and medicating, a chance to work and hold condition, and the added distance is only going to HELP him. The other entrants better all enter a rabbit, because he's going to control the pace at 12f without exerting himself.

[jay68802]

The race comes down to who or how many are going to go with Justify from the start?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The race comes down to who or how many are going to go with Justify from the start?


I think it simply comes down to wheter Justify can 'get' 12F.



Regardless of pace or heat or anybody getting after him, he has repelled all that thus far.



The only question remaining is 12 panels IMO.

[MadVindication]

Bravazo isn’t much? Hahaha okay

I really like him too. I'm hoping that his inconsistencies still make him a longer odds horse for the belmont but it's unlikely now with the field so far. I want another Awesome Again / Ghostzapper pedigree to race against him and Justify in the Belmont but I don't know if that's possible or even if there is a contender like that.

Justify has proven himself again and again. He only had a narrow margin of victory because that's how he ran the race. Mike Smith can press for more at any strategic point. Whoever wants to be the rabbit will sacrifce showing up in the money and then we see the same thing as the Preakness (exciting this time but will be boring for the belmont). I'd rather watch a race where Justify just takes the lead, sets his pace, wins easily and see how it goes in the last bit of the race with the other horses proving for 2 and 3rd honestly. Because there's more to the race than the race for first place. :ThmbUp:

[dilanesp]

If you see him put in 1 good work between now and the Belmont, he'll be a 'single'(in the sense that you won't want to bet against him, but there's no bet unless there's a false favorite in preceding legs).

If he can only gallop up to the Belmont, and has more hoof work done, take a shot or pass.

He won the Preakness on about 80%. He put away Good Magic at about 80%. There's talk about Bravazo or Tenfold 'almost winning'. At no point did they look like a winner or were even involved in the race that Justify and Good Magic were running. They sucked up and got closer near the wire and would have needed the finish line to get up and run away. (Kinda like Audible's so-called competitive race with Good Magic in the Derby).
He did all this after running the Derby on a bad hoof, coming out 'off'(lame may be technically correct, but is a poor word choice in this context) and then being medicated, and having his hoof reconstructed, being shipped, and limited to jogs and slow gallops with only 2 weeks time.

If you see him put in a good work before the Belmont, there's a good chance that he's as close to 100% as he's been since the optional claimer race in March.

He's got 3 weeks, a better hoof, less shipping and medicating, a chance to work and hold condition, and the added distance is only going to HELP him. The other entrants better all enter a rabbit, because he's going to control the pace at 12f without exerting himself.

This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.

[MadVindication]

This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.

Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."

[SecretAgentMan]

I will bet him to place like I did in the Preakness & received the same money as a win bettor.

[SecretAgentMan]

This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.




Doesn't work that way.

[dilanesp]

Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."

Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.

[GMB@BP]

Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.

War Emblem was a form cycle issue and not a speed horse going to his nose out of the break, first take I have heard like that.

[f2tornado]

I'll gladly play against 4/5 chalk in the Belmont. Excluding AP, 9 of the last Triple Crown bids were spoiled by a horse that did not compete in all three legs, what Chrome's former owner called "cheaters". I'll look for fresh legs like Hofburg, Vino Rosso, or even Blended Citizen.

[dilanesp]

War Emblem was a form cycle issue and not a speed horse going to his nose out of the break, first take I have heard like that.

I am not directly comparing the two. I am saying the most likely result is he finishes up the track in 3 weeks like War Emblem, rather than, say, beaten by a short margin a la Real Quiet or Funny Cide.

[GMB@BP]

I am not directly comparing the two. I am saying the most likely result is he finishes up the track in 3 weeks like War Emblem, rather than, say, beaten by a short margin a la Real Quiet or Funny Cide.

up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?

[MadVindication]

Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

There won't be a horse like GM who will be a threat like that, with the unknowns of "what if" GM can keep up and Mike using more of the horse than necessary to keep position. He can have whatever timing he wants in better conditions. It probably won't be foggy either and hopefully not a sloppy, dangerous track again.

Justify likes to lead, he's got a will for it, it's not a problem. Unlike the closers who lack foundation and still learning to want to pass horses. Even the tested My Boy Jack doesn't like to pass horses. A closer isn't going to beat Justify. So far, Bravazo is the only one who can beat him in the Belmont. and any early runner/presser trying keep Justify's pace is going to be too tired to pass him.

[dilanesp]

up the track, I think I would take that bet, what kind of odds can I get? What is up the track, back half of the field?

The track offers bets (trifectas and supers) where I can capitalize on this. I plan to.

[Robert Fischer]

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.

mud is fine, the issue is if hoof crack and bruise that delayed his start until February and then that he had to run the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby on.

He was fortunate to have it properly repaired before the Preakness. Belmont may be his last race, or they may give him an opportunity to really show that he's bounced back and wants to run in the Classic.

Think about Ax Man and co for the Travers from BB.

He has not been thriving. Only good thing you can say is that he's so talented that he can beat these guys at 80%, and he's so tough that he hasn't quit.

His preakness was like trying to win a handicapping contest with the worst migraine of your life, or a quarterback trying to win a game with a mild separated shoulder.

Look out for his pre-Belmont works.

Here is Pharoah's pre-Belmont work. Date was Mon June 1st 2015 = so you are targeting maybe Monday June 4th 2018 for the same general type of pattern
starts at about 4:30 on the video and put in a solid breeze.

If you see this from Justify, expect that his form has improved from Post-Derby/Preakness to Pre-Belmont. If you don't see any works, then there is more of a question as to whether or not he is thriving again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHlkb6G7f4

[Fightingirish51195]

mud is fine, the issue is if hoof crack and bruise that delayed his start until February and then that he had to run the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby on.

He was fortunate to have it properly repaired before the Preakness. Belmont may be his last race, or they may give him an opportunity to really show that he's bounced back and wants to run in the Classic.

Think about Ax Man and co for the Travers from BB.

He has not been thriving. Only good thing you can say is that he's so talented that he can beat these guys at 80%, and he's so tough that he hasn't quit.

His preakness was like trying to win a handicapping contest with the worst migraine of your life, or a quarterback trying to win a game with a mild separated shoulder.

Look out for his pre-Belmont works.

Here is Pharoah's pre-Belmont work. Date was Mon June 1st 2015 = so you are targeting maybe Monday June 4th 2018 for the same general type of pattern
starts at about 4:30 on the video and put in a solid breeze.

If you see this from Justify, expect that his form has improved from Post-Derby/Preakness to Pre-Belmont. If you don't see any works, then there is more of a question as to whether or not he is thriving again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHlkb6G7f4

How do you know justify is 80 percent. Just seems kind of arbitrary to me

[MadVindication]

It's just sensible to consider that Justify can lose if he doesn't recover and will definitely win if his hoof bruise hasn't worsened (or if there is a sign that it doesn't bother him). Robert gives great advice :ThmbUp:

Justify is definitely an adrenaline junkie who can tough out most minor problems. So foot problem or not it's the work out that will tell us how he'll perfom come Belmont :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Still would only modestly bet against him. If I didn't learn my lesson from HOPING a longer odds horse could win the derby I would've lost money again.

I'm expecting Justify in fine form, but still betting Bravazo in the win spot at least one tri ticket. It's just better for my mind, only thing worse than losing is not playing a horse I like out of uncertainty and doubt then having it come through like I thought in the first place.

[Tom]

I won't know anything until about 6:00 Saturday, June 9, 2018.

[Redboard]

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

[Andy Asaro]

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

Great points.

[papillon]

But I wish "40th day of rain" was an option, then I would have voted wins the TC and is the only slop horse in history to never have it held against him.

I'm not sure I would say any horse ran well yesterday. I was happy with Tenfold, he was my pick, but he still only caught the rump end of a 97 Beyer, damning with faint praise if ever there was. I was happy for Assmussen. You have to like him just for his hair.

[Fightingirish51195]

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

Definitely more impressed with justify. Stronger competition. And while pimlico was speed favoring. Atleast he was pressed. American pharaoh had it all his own way after the derby. Reguardless though he was great

[papillon]

Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."

The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.

He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.

He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.

He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.

[Andy Asaro]

I'm stunned that the most popular vote is to toss.

The latest twitter poll results are in but I did it a little differently. These are with 108 votes.

25% Yes, I'll single him.

65% No, I'll spread

10% Doesn't run

[MadVindication]

The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.

He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.

He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.

He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.


I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him :ThmbUp: "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.

[AndyC]

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?

[cj]

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?

Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?

[AndyC]

Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?

Valid point, but a low priced underlay will have a much greater affect on the overlay/underlay of a horizontal than a horse at 6-1 that should be at 8-1. In long horizontals (P4-P6) I make tickets based on coverage probabilities and then play or not play based on the perceived value of the entire ticket.

If certainly wouldn't play Justify on top of any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or as part of any DD or P3 if I thought he was an underlay.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.

[Fightingirish51195]

Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.

Off topic, but what will happen to the value of those American pharaoh win tickets if justify wins? Will they always have value because he was the first in 37 years? DRF sent me one in the mail that year a few weeks after the race

[Burls]

I'll gladly play against 4/5 chalk in the Belmont. Excluding AP, 9 of the last Triple Crown bids were spoiled by a horse that did not compete in all three legs, what Chrome's former owner called "cheaters". I'll look for fresh legs like Hofburg, Vino Rosso, or even Blended Citizen.
My thoughts exactly.

[MutuelClerk]

Toss.

Like cookies.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/998727510362750976

[SecretAgentMan]

I hope Audible runs, because he will take money & I don't think he will hit the board.

[papillon]

I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him :ThmbUp: "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.

TBH I don't think a TC will really make any difference for the sport. We just had one. Made no difference. American Pharoah was kicked to the curb by Arrogate-mania like he was a big hunk of horse manure stuck on everybody's shoe. All that did was say the TC ain't as big as one big ass Timeform rating and race call announcing the reincarnation of Man O'War.

I have to amit, the schadenfreude from that whole episode was pretty sweet.

TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?

You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.

I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.

Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.

My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't. And Justify has kept winning. Win streaks in any sport are hard. So I always tip a hat to them.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ummmm...yeah...ok....whatever bro.

[pandy]

I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.

That's right, in the long run you're better off taking a shot against these big favorites in the Belmont. With Secretariat and Seattle Slew, it was different, they were freakish super horses that looked unbeatable and looked like a cinch for the triple crown after they won the Derby. But the other horses you mentioned, the only one I picked to win the Belmont was Smarty Jones and I wasn't confident.

[Dream_Police]

If you think he is the likely winner then why not play him. Looking for value is bogus as the preakness tri returned $148 for a $1 so there is "value" playing the favorite. Horzontals are also an option as it would only take one tote buster or a beaten 4/5 to make P3 and P4 a good option. I will probably play him as a single in the P4 for $1 and then come back with a saver with Bravazo, Audible and one other for .50.

[biggestal99]

If you think he is the likely winner then why not play him.

I play the exchange. Price is EVERYTHING. Repeat PRICE is EVERYTHING.

Justify is the most likely winner of the BELMONT, there is little debate in my mind about that. so what price are you willing to accept on him. 1-10, 1-5, 3-10.....what. It all comes down to Price.

Price. Price. Price.

Allan

[GMB@BP]

I play the exchange. Price is EVERYTHING. Repeat PRICE is EVERYTHING.

Justify is the most likely winner of the BELMONT, there is little debate in my mind about that. so what price are you willing to accept on him. 1-10, 1-5, 3-10.....what. It all comes down to Price.

Price. Price. Price.

Allan


thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.

[dilanesp]

thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.

The only TC attempt I rooted for was Funny Cide. I thought it would have been great if the horse who finally won the triple crown was a horse who the greedy and parasitic breeding industry couldn't get its hands on.

If I thought Winstar would race Justify for a couple of more years I would root for him. But I don't, so I won't.

[cj]

The only TC attempt I rooted for was Funny Cide. I thought it would have been great if the horse who finally won the triple crown was a horse who the greedy and parasitic breeding industry couldn't get its hands on.

If I thought Winstar would race Justify for a couple of more years I would root for him. But I don't, so I won't.

Yeah, there is zero chance he'll race a couple more years.

[jay68802]

thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.

Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.

[GMB@BP]

Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.

Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some point I could elaborate more but....

For me I am having issues where I know certain horses are going to win and there is value in the plays, as you suggested, but I am so anti-favorite that I dont play it. Its a weakness of my game.

[Mc990]

Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.

Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"

[GMB@BP]

Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"

Isnt up to each individual handicapper to determine the underlay/overlay?

If one felt Justify was 1/5 to win the derby, and the oaks winner 2/1 then 16/1 would be a square price.

[Mc990]

Isnt up to each individual handicapper to determine the underlay/overlay?

If one felt Justify was 1/5 to win the derby, and the oaks winner 2/1 then 16/1 would be a square price.

Yes, that is true but at that point they'd both be value in the win pool as well and it shouldn't be implied that the value was in the double because it returned a high multiple of the investment.

The double payout was in line with the win pool payouts once you factor takeout.

[MadVindication]

.
TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?

You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.

Hype is hype. It's always a part of sports. I like watching horses compete passed age 3 too. I don't like looking at stakes competers pedigree and seeing a winner of three races then retired. I understand there are good reasons sometimes but it is disappointing.

I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.

I don't think there was a script for the Preakness. Just Ortiz's public strategy which proved the best shot at GM winning. It's obvious they weren't racing for second. I don't doubt that there's fixing in the industry at any level, actually entering a sacrifical "rabbit" is kind of like fixing to me. But that's not what Ortiz/Good Magic were doing, they competed honestly. The risk in that weather too --nothing about the race adds up that they were running to settle for second.

The shadey shit in the industry is suspicious class drops, like running unsound horses to trick naive people into claiming them by taking easy wins or just for easy wins. And of course the horses that end up in shit conditions/slaughtered. Getting retired to a wealthy breeding industry is a better alternative. So there's a probably unjustified bias against horses that eventually lose and it makes them less profitable and therefor maybe they don't pay for their upkeep. Not really the industry moguls to blame. In ways they have no choice but to retire them soon and to me that does indicate concern for the well-being of thoroughbreds and not just concern for money.

I'd like to be able to follow horses I see running the TC to later careers too but I'm not sure if it is best for them. There's no knowing, and I understand why you are cynical about forgotten champions -but they aren't the truly forgotten thoroughbreds. If they keep running and do well then become injured they still have breeding value. Because breeding animals for specific purpose always leaves them vulnerable to genetic conditions, it comes with the territory. If they keep running and do worse and worse what fate awaits them?

There's lots to love about the sport. I'm new to it and it's my first Triple Crown following, which I would enjoy seeing a Triple Crown winner with a horse like Justify, overcoming doubts about his history. He's got the great Canadian pedigree on one side.


Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.

He's been inconsistent. I'm looking to see if he can keep his form like he has in the last two tough races. I think he will. But if he runs competitvely with Justify or by slim chance beats Justify will you think that Bravazo has improved or will you think Justify just isn't that great of a horse? My opinion would be the former.

[jay68802]

Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some point I could elaborate more but....

For me I am having issues where I know certain horses are going to win and there is value in the plays, as you suggested, but I am so anti-favorite that I dont play it. Its a weakness of my game.


Completely understand where you are coming from here. I am the same way a lot of the time. I was sold on Justify, lucky for me. I was also sold on Monomny Girl or what ever her name is, in the Oaks. I am not going to get into if it was a over or underlay, that is a decision that is already past.

Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"

Big price's can be had, but in this situation were not going to be there. I thought the prices were fair, and that is just my opinion. The point is that after handicapping one race for 3 weeks, you know about where the odds were going to be. And if you were sold on Justify, you had to make your decision. Were you going to take 5/2 against 20 others, or try and find something else and get a better price. The way I went looks good now, but could have been questioned by others at the time the bet was placed. Got lucky, time for the next race.

[clicknow]

Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

I dunno. I know Pace Advantage noted the heavy breathing afterwards, and that shows a certain level of fatigue. But he showed no signs of that in the race, ie. struggling to maintain his level of intensity. So his fatigue in that sense mght only have involved his muscles in the upper airway. He was not stumbling, drifting, or any of those things that show up when fatigue affects overall balance and coordination.

Looking at the video I posted of him walking back to the paddock (having compared it to his post parade where he was just rarin' to go) he still looked like a horse with some energy. He was not hanging his head, there was no head-bobbing, and all those really bad signs of fatigue and pain.

I may have to toss him from the win spot anyway though just based on value.

[GMB@BP]

I think he did get a little bit tired.

3 weeks though for a 3yo should be enough time to recover.

More worried about an extra 2 furlongs.

[clicknow]

Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.

If accurately combined with other horses in either verticals or horizontals, yes....esp deeper exotics if you can find the 3rd or 4th horse.

For exacta or win bet, not so much.

Not everybody plays the same way.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There are so many races with winners paying 3-1 or less and $10-20 exotic payoffs that to me it makes no sense to routinely indulge this or really only rarely at all. If I am on a fast track for older claimers in a short field and it looks like a wiffle ball HR I swing. With 3yo's going longer than usual in the mud=nope!

[clicknow]

and then come back with a saver with Bravazo, Audible and one other for .50.

Audible hasn't worked since the KY Derby.

So, I doubt he will be entered.

However, I sure would not play horse who hasn't had a work in almost 3 weeks to win The Belmont Stakes.

I am hoping Free Drop Billy runs. He seems to be doing quite well and may be ready to run a good one. If he runs I will probably be using him. Seems like he has enough Classiciity in his profile, his sire's BMS profile and his dam's BMS profile, though there are a coupla cylinders missing.

[dilanesp]

There are so many races with winners paying 3-1 or less and $10-20 exotic payoffs that to me it makes no sense to routinely indulge this or really only rarely at all. If I am on a fast track for older claimers in a short field and it looks like a wiffle ball HR I swing. With 3yo's going longer than usual in the mud=nope!

I wish I remember which year it was (because I would like to look up the race), but several years ago I looked at the card on a major stakes day at Belmont and the first race was one of those races where there was an obvious 2 to 5 shot who was going to win and an obvious horse who wasn't as good as the favorite but towered over the rest of the field. I put a big bet on the cold exacta. It paid $7 after the 2 to 5 shot won by about 4 lengths over the obvious second horse, with another gap back to the rest of them. I was quite happy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I wish I remember which year it was (because I would like to look up the race), but several years ago I looked at the card on a major stakes day at Belmont and the first race was one of those races where there was an obvious 2 to 5 shot who was going to win and an obvious horse who wasn't as good as the favorite but towered over the rest of the field. I put a big bet on the cold exacta. It paid $7 after the 2 to 5 shot won by about 4 lengths over the obvious second horse, with another gap back to the rest of them. I was quite happy.

I've done this! And the placer doesn't have to tower over the rest of the field. Sometimes during the day I will say pick one to finish 2nd to the heavy chalk. Make sure it pays at least $20 and wager a win bet amount on that combo. It has won many of whole days!:ThmbUp:

But it doesn't happen a ton. I started learning how to play in this manner in 1997 at my hometown track River Downs. Wanting to be the master of my home court I started wagering heavily on $12 exactas because there weren't many options!:D

[clicknow]

My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't.

I think the time will come when Magnum Moon is gonna surprise a lot of people. If he keeps racing.

[burnsy]

You spread for the pari mutuels score of course. The outliers are where the money is. Always have something else cooking when that much money is going one way. Simple math. That's the way I've hit huge pic tickets on Belmont day. Big Brown was the "all" button and Smarty Jones I used Birdstone with Smarty, one horse but I spread in the earlier legs. A bunch of people up here hit on Birdstone because people had seen him work and he was another one of those horses that loved the NYRA circuit.


It didn't work when AP finally upset the apple cart but that took 3 decades.


I've since sold my boat I got that summer. But I was going to call it Big Brown.


If its 95 degrees like it was when he pulled up, you hit that all button. Its been very, very good to me in races like this......not just on Belmont Day.

[LemonSoupKid]

You spread for the pari mutuels score of course. The outliers are where the money is. Always have something else cooking when that much money is going one way. Simple math. That's the way I've hit huge pic tickets on Belmont day. Big Brown was the "all" button and Smarty Jones I used Birdstone with Smarty, one horse but I spread in the earlier legs.

It can be costly to punch all depending on your ticket ... who are your 2 beside Justify if you aren't hitting ALL?

[JemFan777]

I probably won't bet on the Belmont, but I do remember betting on American Pharoah to win the Preakness and the Belmont back in 2015, which made the Triple Crown win even more epic for me, as it was the first time in my life that a horse won the Triple Crown. However, I still hope Justify wins it all!

[Redboard]

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?


I don’t have the balls to toss him in the horizontal bets, but I will in the vertical. One reason I’m playing him in the Pick 3, Pick 4 & pick 5, is because I’ll be watching the race with my wife. If I tell her we’re still alive but I don’t have Justify in the last leg, and he wins, I’ll be in the doghouse. :rant:

As far as the vertical bets here’s what I’m doing. I’m predicting that Justify will come in 3rd or 4th. For the exacta, I’m going to toss him and pick five , tossing the Preakness runners because of the shorter rest. Of the five I settle on, I’ll bet an exacta box, in addition I’ll bet any of the five that are over 10-1 to win.

The 2014 (Chrome) Belmont exacta paid 174-1. The 2008 (Big Brown) exacta paid 330-1. Any bet with Justify in isn’t going to pay much. Why bother with crappy saver bets? There are other races on the undercard Saturday. The Belmont Stakes isn’t the be all and end all. If Justify wins, I won't kick myself; that’s what happens when you play the horses. I’ll take the loss and move on. Although I would kick myself if I missed a big score.

[f2tornado]

.

The 2014 (Chrome) Belmont exacta paid 174-1. The 2008 (Big Brown) exacta paid 330-1. Any bet with Justify in isn’t going to pay much. Why bother with crappy saver bets? There are other races on the undercard Saturday. The Belmont Stakes isn’t the be all and end all. If Justify wins, I won't kick myself; that’s what happens when you play the horses. I’ll take the loss and move on. Although I would kick myself if I missed a big score.

This is similar to my strategy this year. I'll even toss him from the horizontals unless I have a decent odds horse or two to pair him with. If he beats me then so be it. My philosophy is when I see a vulnerable chalk I make a play against. I mainly reserve use of a saver if I have some odds underneath to work with.

[Ribot Roboto]

Why bother with crappy saver bets?

You said a mouthful right there. It’s a little different in tris and supers but an odds on favorite in the exacta is big whoop.

[f2tornado]

I gave this some more thought and research...

Only three post time favorites won the race in last 20 years.
Seven of the last eight odds-on favorites tanked.
One one favorite hit the exacta in past decade.

American Pharoah was the primary exception.

Since I don't believe Justify could carry AP's saddle cloth, most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

[GMB@BP]

I gave this some more thought and research...

Only three post time favorites won the race in last 20 years.
Seven of the last eight odds-on favorites tanked.
One one favorite hit the exacta in past decade.

American Pharoah was the primary exception.

Since I don't believe Justify could carry AP's saddle cloth, most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

The Belmont Stakes cannot be handicapped, IMO, based on traditional handicapping factors, thus the public has not done well at betting the race.

12 furlongs on dirt is like asking Usain Bolt to run a mile in the Olympics.

[clicknow]

most of my wagers will leave Justify out of the exacta.

Mine, too.

[fellowmen]

The year Touch Gold rolled by Bafferts Silver Charm to foil his first shot at the crown iy really taught me what stamia was. It was my 10th year in the game and I told by a nice old man at the track (as i sat there day after day watching my husband give away all of our money to the people on the other side of the windows) that we (the Americans) breed for speed at the dismay of the purists. And the horses are more fragile because of it. Well i didnt see it myself. No matter the distance it looked the same to me. A bunch of horses running around circle. But when my beautiful gray horse hit a wall that day in Elmont i got it. But most of the Belmont's since seem to have been dominated by front runners. Which I still dont understand. But as good as this big red horse is' I dont think he will rise anywhere near to the class of another big red horse that ran around the same circle some 36 years. Ive been let down by yhis game to many times to let myself get excited about it. Anyway it can burn you it will. When i over hear grown men crying about about a beat bad every 3rd friday of the month when my house fills with smoke and i can finally get to sleep at 5am, i laugh to myself and think they obviously dont play "the game". Cause ive witnessed some very peculiar sinking feeling in your gut beat bads over the years. This year? This one has heart obviously. The way that race was run most horses would have gave way. But he dug in. It had to of taken something out of him though. And with a rabbit entered and a big bullseye on the riders back and the extra distance? As Dana Carvey says "aint gonna happen" but it will be another let down cause my husband will probaly throw him right off the board and probaly come out with both barrels blazing in hopes of a huge score and leave him right off his super trifecta. Cause ive heard him say before betting a chalk in the 3 or 4 slot of a ticket would be akin to taking his shoes off and setting them on the kitchen table or flicking a cigarette butt onto thr couch. its just something you don"t do. My pick? 8-1-4-3-9

[MadVindication]

Cause ive heard him say before betting a chalk in the 3 or 4 slot of a ticket would be akin to taking his shoes off and setting them on the kitchen table or flicking a cigarette butt onto thr couch. its just something you don"t do. My pick? 8-1-4-3-9

I think it could be a good play to put short odds in the three and four. Especially in a race like this. But I think Justify will win. Betting against him his costly to me for this reason -can't "justify" having him in 2nd but not covering in the 3 or four if he does lose it.