"I'm disappointed with the trip", Brown said

[Blenheim]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227633/justify-emerges-from-the-fog-to-win-preakness

[Fightingirish51195]

Maybe Jose went against him. I think Jose did the right thing. Justify might’ve won by 10 if he let him go (maybe some hyperbole here

[Redboard]

During the TV telecast, Jerry Bailey said that if he were riding today, he'd go to the lead and wouldn't care what anybody told him (because speed was holding so well in the earlier races).
Maybe Jose was watching.

[GMB@BP]

Ortiz takes the blame, says not his best ride

http://www.drf.com/news/i-messed-says-good-magic-jockey-ortiz

[elysiantraveller]

I don't know how you can really blame the ride there though. Found himself inside without any other speed to keep the favorite honest.

Of course you'd rather be outside but...

Good Magic was more than game in that race.

[GMB@BP]

I don't know how you can really blame the ride there though. Found himself inside without any other speed to keep the favorite honest.

Of course you'd rather be outside but...

Good Magic was more than game in that race.

It felt like there was pace but with all the riders sending the real pace (Justify) out ran them, and Ortiz broke well. Bad spot, I dont blame him at all.

He dueled the whole way and was only beaten a length or so, tremendous effort and horse he is.

[Fightingirish51195]

Feel bad for Jose. It’s not his fault. Maybe if he broke from the 7 hole he wins. We will never know

[elysiantraveller]

It felt like there was pace but with all the riders sending the real pace (Justify) out ran them, and Ortiz broke well. Bad spot, I dont blame him at all.

He dueled the whole way and was only beaten a length or so, tremendous effort and horse he is.

Have to wait on some figures and they should be accurate with the Barton right before to see... but I suspect both may have bounced a bit and still carried the field while dueling.

Honestly if posts were switched outcome could have been different... never know.

[cj]

Ortiz takes the blame, says not his best ride

http://www.drf.com/news/i-messed-says-good-magic-jockey-ortiz

Silly talk. About the only thing he could have done better was push harder to get in front a little.

[GMB@BP]

Have to wait on some figures and they should be accurate with the Barton right before to see... but I suspect both may have bounced a bit and still carried the field while dueling.

Honestly if posts were switched outcome could have been different... never know.

I dont know if Justify wants any part of 12F but I do know that trip today is underated, duel for that far with a good horse and still prevail. Not easy at all.

I think that was his C effort, his A race is not at 10F or 12F, he wins those on sheer talent.

[elysiantraveller]

I dont know if Justify wants any part of 12F but I do know that trip today is underated, duel for that far with a good horse and still prevail. Not easy at all.

I think that was his C effort, his A race is not at 10F or 12F, he wins those on sheer talent.

Yeah I wasn't knocking him at all.

Both the first and fourth finishers ran brilliant races to finish like that even if it wasn't top of form cycle for either of them.

[Tom]

Brown likes riders the grab.
Ortiz did the only thing he could have done.
That is how good horse race - they take it to the competition,n not sit back and hide like Brown likes do.

The better horse beat him and Brown can cry all he wants to .
Blaming it on the rider is pretty classless IMHO....but Brown has never impressed me as having any class.

[minethatbird08]

Silly talk. About the only thing he could have done better was push harder to get in front a little.

Agree. I hope that was just company talk because I thought Ortiz road GM to win. Anything else allows Justify to just Magnum Moon this field. After his last two races I can definitely say GM proved me wrong (never was high on him myself) but now I have total respect for that horse, Justify is just better.

[Fightingirish51195]

Looks like most of us agree that if justify had the lead on his own, he probably wins this race for fun, and that possibly the only thing that might’ve changed the outcome, meaning a good magic win, was post position

[pandy]

Silly talk. About the only thing he could have done better was push harder to get in front a little.

Yeah, these riders should not apologize for trying to win. If he lets Justify cross over to the inside, sure, Good Magic may have finished second, but he would have had no chance to win and the race would have been boring. Instead, we got a thrilling race with an exciting finish and Good Magic tested Justify. Horseracing, like all sports, and gambling, is a form of entertainment. The horse's and riders put on a good show, and Jose Ortiz made it interesting by being aggressive.

Years ago in a major harness race, a great horseman from Europe, Stig Johansson, came over to race in the Breeders Crown Trot with a great trotter named Victory Tilly. He had a tough post and there was a strong American trotter in the race, Fool's Goal, who drew inside of Victory Tilly. Anyway, Fool's Goal gunned to the lead and Victory Tilly left and tucked second. But then Stig pulled Victory out of the two hole on the final turn and went after Fool's Goal. They battled but Victory Tilly weakened late and finished third. The next week they met again and Victory Tilly got the better post and won and set a world record.

But after the Breeders Crown loss, when talking to the media, Stig Johansson said, "I could have stayed in second and I'm sure we would have finished second. But I didn't come here to finish second. I gave my horse a chance to win."

I'm glad to see most of us agree and understand that Jose tried to win the race.

[depalma113]

If Brown was upset by the ride, he is a poor handicapper.

[PICSIX]

Jose did not ride to win, he rode to keep Justify from winning and that strategy got him a 4th place finish. Since when has it become a good strategy to take on the proven speed of speed with a non-speed horse, taking that horse out of it's comfort zone??

[porchy44]

Silly talk. About the only thing he could have done better was push harder to get in front a little.

I believe Jose Ortiz only said what he did to "appease" Chad Brown.
I'm not second guessing his decision. Jose Ortiz is "the best jockey on the planet" right now.

[Robert Fischer]

The jocks all knew that course like the back of their hands.

Part of the reason the day was so chalky. There was no chaos or randomness regarding the mud anymore. They had adapted to the course.

Ortiz did a good job of forcing Justify to work.
If he hadn't Mike would have toyed with the field, like he does every time he inherits the lead with one of these Baffert horses.

Justify was 80%, and he was able to win ugly.

[sammy the sage]

the BAD ride was because he slowly drifted towards THE DEAD rail....knew he was done just after the turn for home....if roles had been reversed...who knows....but he was slowly herded in by the bigger intimidating horse...and then buried....

[Spalding No!]

Jose did not ride to win, he rode to keep Justify from winning and that strategy got him a 4th place finish. Since when has it become a good strategy to take on the proven speed of speed with a non-speed horse, taking that horse out of it's comfort zone??
I tend to agree with this, that sending Good Magic was not so much the best strategy for Good Magic to win the Preakness than it was the best strategy to keep Justify from winning the Preakness (i.e., setting it up for someone else).

Mike Smith didn't ride the 2016 BC Classic like that, with a loose California Chrome on the lead, and theoretically Arrogate had the speed to take it to him early. He didn't, sat behind, played some cat-and-mouse, and ground out the win at the wire. And some even point to the effort as evidence of greatness.

In 2015, I think it was Lezcano who decided to send Frosted into a protracted duel with American Pharoah in the Travers. The plan worked that day. It kept American Pharoah from winning, and it set it up for someone else to garner the awards...

[metro]

Jose did not ride to win, he rode to keep Justify from winning and that strategy got him a 4th place finish. Since when has it become a good strategy to take on the proven speed of speed with a non-speed horse, taking that horse out of it's comfort zone??

In fairness to Jose he had just had a front row seat on Title Ready to Mike Smith and Ax Man's unchallenged front running win in the Sir Barton. Been there, done that.

Good Magic's only shot at winning was to engage Justify and the fractions were reasonable. Ortiz surely would have preferred more of an outside pressing type situation but didn't have the luxury of sacrificing his position, especially considering what had shown to be a speed favoring surface on most all prior races.

[alhattab]

Brown doesn't exactly shed himself in the best light, publicly calling out his jock. I've heard he is a bit of a prick and his comments reflect that. Criticize privately.

[lamboguy]

I don't know how you can really blame the ride there though. Found himself inside without any other speed to keep the favorite honest.

Of course you'd rather be outside but...

Good Magic was more than game in that race.mark this down, at some point GOOD MAGIC will be the best horse from this crop.

[thaskalos]

Jose did not ride to win, he rode to keep Justify from winning and that strategy got him a 4th place finish. Since when has it become a good strategy to take on the proven speed of speed with a non-speed horse, taking that horse out of it's comfort zone??

Not only didn't Jose "ride to win"...he didn't even ride to PLACE. What Chad Brown hinted at with his post-race comment was that he would have been happy to follow Justify all the way to the wire, thus securing second place. The way the race unfolded...there probably wasn't one horseplayer out there who actually thought that the eventual survivor of yesterday's speed duel would have been Good Magic.

[Tom]

I didn't see it, but I read today that GM odds dropped from 5-1 to 7-2 at last second, or maybe later? Anyone see that?

[burnsy]

If Brown was upset by the ride, he is a poor handicapper.


Of course he is, he has bias. The participants like jockeys, trainers and owners should think they are best. This is why people on ESPN and such are terrible handicappers, most of them are ex jocks (players of all sports).

Trying to be neutral and realistic is huge to gamble. Trusting someone with all their hopes and dreams invested is crazy. I love it on TV, people actually believe someone that has their entire life vested on an event. What's the guy or gal supposed to say, "Oh we will lose today." And then not make an excuse after the fact? That's just life.

I try to bet everything realistically, without bias and even attempting that is really difficult. Its the cause for mistakes and bites me in the ass. The worst person to ask is usually the ones with their future on the line or their past experiences of competing clouding their judgement. Gambling is not the same as being a "player". I wouldn't ask Terry Bradshaw or Charles Barkley who to bet on in a million years. Yet, people think those guys can pick games. Same thing goes for the jocks and trainers.......90% of the time.

[Grits]

Brown doesn't exactly shed himself in the best light, publicly calling out his jock. I've heard he is a bit of a prick and his comments reflect that. Criticize privately.

This was a day or so before the Preakness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUOgYFLOsc

Chad is not rude, short, unkind, a bit of a prick, or whatever else you want to call him.

Do you know him?

I can tell you he's extremely focused, a quieter presence. He's not a Baffert and never will intend to be.

Trainers have been disappointed with rides before. This is not anything new. And you should know this.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I liked the ride from Good Magic. Took it to Justify.


There was still 'some' lingering doubt as to who was the better horse after the Derby. Ortiz and GM took at Justify to find out who was the better.



Justify is just a better horse. Not by much, but is the better.



GM and his connections have nothing to be ashamed of with his Kentucky Derby and Preakness races. They took solid shots at Justfiy. He ran well. Just got beat by a better horse.



Humility is sometimes very tough to swallow when you are so close.

[jay68802]

I do not understand this. A day or two before the race, Jose told everyone his strategy. If someone else did not challenge Justify early, he was going to have to turn it into a match race. Brown was not part of this? Brown is upset more that no one else went to the lead and gave Jose no choice in the matter. It also took his horse out of his running style. Two bad choices to have, let the front runner loose on the lead or take your horse out of his running style. Jose did the right thing and fought for the win under less than ideal circumstances. Brown has no right to be upset with the ride. Got to give a :ThmbUp: to Jose here. At least he had the guts and the confidence in his horse to challenge instead of taking the other option and letting the race go with out a challenge.

[clicknow]

All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.

[GMB@BP]

All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.

But his horse clearly ran a very good race, the 2 weeks had no effect. This race spacing stuff has done nothing but hurt the sport, I am so glad he ran the horse.

[cj]

I tend to agree with this, that sending Good Magic was not so much the best strategy for Good Magic to win the Preakness than it was the best strategy to keep Justify from winning the Preakness (i.e., setting it up for someone else).

Mike Smith didn't ride the 2016 BC Classic like that, with a loose California Chrome on the lead, and theoretically Arrogate had the speed to take it to him early. He didn't, sat behind, played some cat-and-mouse, and ground out the win at the wire. And some even point to the effort as evidence of greatness.

In 2015, I think it was Lezcano who decided to send Frosted into a protracted duel with American Pharoah in the Travers. The plan worked that day. It kept American Pharoah from winning, and it set it up for someone else to garner the awards...

Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?

[cj]

I didn't see it, but I read today that GM odds dropped from 5-1 to 7-2 at last second, or maybe later? Anyone see that?

I don't remember the specifics but I was surprised when 7-2 showed during the running.

[GMB@BP]

Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?

He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.

[clicknow]

But his horse clearly ran a very good race

He did indeed, and being pressed on the fence.

I just don't get the part about "“No, I didn’t want the horse on the lead. " When a few days ago he said he was going to run this like a match race. So his horse gets pressed by Justify, when he was wanting to be the one pressing....I'd say he really miscalculated his strategy then.


Match race doesn't imply sitting off the pace and following another horse around, does it? Match race to me means, TAKE IT TO THE OTHER HORSE.

In the final analysis, I doubt letting Justify get even 2 lengths ahead would have worked. and obviously, dueling him didn't work either. The truth is that Justify just has a "little more" than GM, as a horse AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Calling out your jockey in front of the world is pretty "sour grapes.



However, I like to see the can-do attitude of asumussen:

"We were three-quarters of a length away from where we want to be, let’s figure out how to get it.”

[Grits]

All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.

Show us the quotes that you heard all week. Chad wasn't even in Baltimore until the end of the week.

Try watching the video I provided and get back to me when you hear...

(A) Lack of respect for Justify or others

(B) The two words "match race"

Paraphrasing just one quote in the video. " We have to hope our horse breaks well and Justify doesn't get too far ahead of us.".

He won this race last year with Cloud Computing. The stat you site is foolish.

[GMB@BP]

He did indeed, and being pressed on the fence.

I just don't get the part about "“No, I didn’t want the horse on the lead. " When a few days ago he said he was going to run this like a match race. So his horse gets pressed by Justify, when he was wanting to be the one pressing....I'd say he really miscalculated his strategy then.


Match race doesn't imply sitting off the pace and following another horse around, does it? Match race to me means, TAKE IT TO THE OTHER HORSE.


However, I like to see the can-do attitude of asumussen:

"We were three-quarters of a length away from where we want to be, let’s figure out how to get it.”

Trainers are not usually good handicappers (though his mentor sure was).

Also, once the horse broke well and was inside the speed he really had no choice, Brown sounds silly in this case.

[cj]

He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.

I also think Arrogate was the better horse and both riders knew it. In this case the better horse was Justify so not really the same situation to me. There is no chance Good Magic is going to run down a loose on the lead Justify in the stretch. If you employ that strategy you are just hoping Justify is off his game.

[clicknow]

He won this race last year with Cloud Computing. The stat you site is foolish.

Cloud Computing ran in the Wood Memorial, skipped the KY Derby, and the ran in the Preakness. He was NOT running off 2 weeks rest.

So please tell me what was "foolish" about my stat? ;)



Show us the quotes that you heard all week. .


:blush: you are right, it was the jockey not the trainer: “Hopefully, someone else goes [to the early lead]. If Justify goes, and I have to be the one putting pressure on him, I will be,” Ortiz said. “I will have to turn it into a match race. It looks like a match race on paper. You can't give Justify an inch.”

But sounds to me like ortiz had it "figured out" right :D He's easily one of the best gate riders in the nation right now. Had they let Justify get ahead, ran off the pace, then tried to pass Justify in the stretch, Mike would have hit the button on Justify's afterburners and it would have been over. (and I'm not even a big Justify fan, just calling it like it is----top class speed, despite being tired, would still have won this).


if Brown wanted him to do otherwise he should have made it clear to his jockey.

I admire Brown for entering his colt. Had the post positions been switched, he may have won. Had the weather been different, he may have won (though highly doubtful) He is obviously disappointed, as would be natural.

[Grits]

Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know... ;)

[GMB@BP]

Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know... ;)

He doesnt make the move reall at all, it was a grass mdn cliaming win and a restricted grass claimer, think at Monmouth of like 12 starts over 5 years.

Trainers at the high end all want 4 horse fields every 6 weeks or so, Chad rarely runs his horses more than a handful of times per year.

This race spacing bounce junk has been bad for racing. No reason 3-6 year old horses should not be running every 14-28 days. Would help the sport tremendously, but alas horses would lose more often and win percentages would go down.

[thaskalos]

Also, once the horse broke well and was inside the speed he really had no choice, Brown sounds silly in this case.

Coming into and around the first turn, Mike Smith seemed intent on making the lead...and Ortiz pushed Good Magic into the impending early speed duel from the inside. When you say that Ortiz had "no choice"...do you mean that he couldn't sit a length or so behind Justify in the early going, and then try to gain on the outside as the two horses separated from the rest of the pack? Was it "good strategy" to engage the 2/5 undefeated Derby winner in a nose-to-nose speed duel while buried on the inside of the track?

Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?

[PaceAdvantage]

Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?Maybe Ortiz=LoneF?

[Grits]

Maybe Ortiz=LoneF?

And all this time I've wondered what the F stood for. Thank you for clearing that up for me. :pound:

[cj]

Coming into and around the first turn, Mike Smith seemed intent on making the lead...and Ortiz pushed Good Magic into the impending early speed duel from the inside. When you say that Ortiz had "no choice"...do you mean that he couldn't sit a length or so behind Justify in the early going, and then try to gain on the outside as the two horses separated from the rest of the pack? Was it "good strategy" to engage the 2/5 undefeated Derby winner in a nose-to-nose speed duel while buried on the inside of the track?

Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?

Coming in most only thought two horses could win, so if you beat the other one you probably do think there is a great chance you will indeed win the race.

It would have been tough to tuck in behind and work his way outside. The 3rd and 4th horses were pretty close up, not like they were gapped much even with a speed duel on. Without one, they are probably even closer.

[thaskalos]

Coming in most only thought two horses could win, so if you beat the other one you probably do think there is a great chance you will indeed win the race.

It would have been tough to tuck in behind and work his way outside. The 3rd and 4th horses were pretty close up, not like they were gapped much even with a speed duel on. Without one, they are probably even closer.

If Ortiz actually thought that he gave his horse a chance to win the race with the ride that he gave...then he needs to have his head examined. Good Magic had no chance of surviving a speed duel against Justify. IMO...you let Justify take the early lead, and if the Derby winner is on his game...then at least you secure the place money. If Justify is OFF his game, then you have a fair chance of running him down late. But in no way do you try to run that horse into the ground in an early speed duel.

[cj]

If Ortiz actually thought that he gave his horse a chance to win the race with the ride that he gave...then he needs to have his head examined. Good Magic had no chance of surviving a speed duel against Justify. IMO...you let Justify take the early lead, and if the Derby winner is on his game...then at least you secure the place money. If Justify is OFF his game, then you have a fair chance of running him down late. But in no way do you try to run that horse into the ground in an early speed duel.

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.

[thaskalos]

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

[Grits]

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.


What? The other side being...


Unemployed!:pound:

[cj]

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

I don't want riders trying for a best possible finish, I want them to ride to win. We get enough of that riding for checks the rest of the week. In big races, go for it!

[cj]

What? The other side being...


Unemployed!:pound:

The other side being go cautious and maybe finish second.

[clicknow]

Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know... ;)

Clearly he has had more success on turf so far. (I'm a big fan of his turf horses.) But I'm a horse fan, not a trainer fan. :cool:

But if I were a trainer fan, I'd be no different than the many owners who still see him as a trainer who has had remarkable success on turf, and maybe don't send him their dirt horses, or those who don't bet his dirt horses to win in graded stakes at Saratoga, etc.



As for Ortiz, he did a great job for him in the KY Derby, and I guess that's why Brown stuck with him for the Preakness.

"I tried to take back a little, but the pace was too fast," Ortiz said. "I made my run the same time he did, but I didn't have the horse underneath me" ---- this later (after Brown criticized the ride publically) turned into Ortiz apologizing to say it was all his fault and he didn’t follow instructions. :rolleyes:

It is understandable why many perceive it was poor form for Brown not to keep his criticism of his jockey IN PRIVATE. I think the overall sentiment is that Ortiz did everything he could to win the race but just didn't have the horse to out-duel Justify.

[thaskalos]

I don't want riders trying for a best possible finish, I want them to ride to win. We get enough of that riding for checks the rest of the week. In big races, go for it!

What chance did you give to Ortiz winning the race yesterday, once you saw the speed duel develop? You actually thought that Ortiz "rode to win" in that race? When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

[cj]

What chance did you give to Ortiz winning the race yesterday, once you saw the speed duel develop? You actually thought that Ortiz "rode to win" in that race? When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

Had he been able to get in front instead of pinned in a little behind I'd have given him a 30% chance. Justify hadn't been pressured by a horse as good as Good Magic yet and it was always possible he would crack first. As I've mentioned, not getting his nose in front was the part that probably doomed him. He got beat, what, a length? He is a very good horse.

[Grits]

Had he been able to get in front instead of pinned in a little behind I'd have given him a 30% chance. Justify hadn't been pressured by a horse as good as Good Magic yet and it was always possible he would crack first. As I've mentioned, not getting his nose in front was the part that probably doomed him. He got beat, what, a length? He is a very good horse.


Cj, wow! Only a 30% chance?

That sure doesn't sound like you think he is a very good horse at all. It really doesn't even with how the two horses ran in the Derby.

[thaskalos]

If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.

[clicknow]

When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

When I saw Classic Empire hook up with Always Dreaming right out of the gate last year, duel that one and then have to take on another horse (CC) in the stretch, I thought he would lose by a lot worse than a head. He was gallant. One could say Classic Empire inherited that dueling job the same way GM did....somebody has to do it, and if they aren't the "ultra top dog", it's usually going to hurt them.
It's kinda weird that this year, Brown loses when last year he wins under the opposite situation......his horse benefits from classic empire doing all the heavy lifting for 3/4 of the race and didn't have that last bit of oooph to kick by.

This is horse racing. Highs, lows, shoulda-coulda stuff.

[cj]

Cj, wow! Only a 30% chance?

That sure doesn't sound like you think he is a very good horse at all. It really doesn't even with how the two horses ran in the Derby.

I think he is a very good horse, but he isn't as good as Justify, that is all. Dueling with a better horse is usually a recipe for disaster, so saying 30% gives him a much better chance than most horses in his situation.

That said, letting him go and trying to catch him later, in my opinion, was at best a 5 or 10% chance to win. You're basically just hoping Justify wasn't on his game at that point.

[Grits]

If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.


Paraphrasing. Chad has stated, "win or lose" (the Preakness), Good Magic is not going in the Belmont. He has not struck me as a 1 1/2 horse."

[cj]

If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.

He isn't running, Chad actually said that is why he was trying the Preakness. He didn't think he is a Belmont horse.

[Spalding No!]

Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?
Fair point about post positions, but unless Bravazo's jock was worried about Good Magic enough to keep him hemmed in on the inside, Good Magic could have conceded the lead and simply shifted out (Bravazo was held about 2.5 lengths off the duel). Maybe that would have even led to Smith dropping in a path (I presume everyone was trying to keep off the rail). There is no doubt that Good Magic is capable of making sharp bids to the lead on the far turn; it is not certain that Justify would have been able to bust open the race on the turn just because he was not pressed early.

And even if Good Magic didn't get off the inside, it wasn't a complete death sentence. The Phipps horse in the 9f Dixie stalked along the inside behind a much slower pace and was able to rally inside and win.

[Spalding No!]

He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.
That was the point of the example of the 2016 BC Classic...Arrogate won. He sat behind an unpressured pace (it was not particularly slow at :47 flat and 1:10 4/5 fractions) and yet still reeled in a loose California Chrome.

[Grits]

I think he is a very good horse, but he isn't as good as Justify, that is all. Dueling with a better horse is usually a recipe for disaster, so saying 30% gives him a much better chance than most horses in his situation.

That said, letting him go and trying to catch him later, in my opinion, was at best a 5 or 10% chance to win. You're basically just hoping Justify wasn't on his game at that point.


And no one has indicated that he is as good as Justify. That's not been felt, at least, certainly not by me. I didn't even bet the race. However, I guess this is how the race looks on paper. Races don't always go according to paper, ie-figures. Still, I get your point.

[Spalding No!]

I also think Arrogate was the better horse and both riders knew it.
This is a bit presumptuous. California Chrome was on a massive tear and on the cusp of an unbeaten season a la Spectacular Bid. Arrogate had a single, albeit otherworldly, breakout performance in the Travers against his own age group, which was coming apart at the seams with each passing day.

In this case the better horse was Justify so not really the same situation to me. There is no chance Good Magic is going to run down a loose on the lead Justify in the stretch. If you employ that strategy you are just hoping Justify is off his game.
Chad Brown said as much in an interview a few days after the Derby. He intended to sit the same trip as the colt got in the Derby, but had to hope that Justify's concentrated racing/training would result in some "regression".

[Grits]

Chad Brown said as much in an interview a few days after the Derby. He intended to sit the same trip as the colt got in the Derby, but had to hope that Justify's concentrated racing/training would result in some "regression".


He said these same words in the six minute video interview that I posted this morning on page 2 of this thread.

[GMB@BP]

So which horse is sacrificing himself in the Belmont? That will help my handicapping, thanks in advance.

[Spalding No!]

So which horse is sacrificing himself in the Belmont? That will help my handicapping, thanks in advance.
Most likely Machismo if he goes (although he hasn't worked since the Arkansas Derby). Maybe Looch can make an 11th hour purchase of Noble Indy off of Winstar a la Calumet, Lukas, and Mr. Z back in 2015.

Tap Daddy, Core Beliefs, Funny Duck, Just Whistle, Enticed if we scrape the bottom of the barrel.

[Fager Fan]

This entire conversation strikes me as odd. Didn't these two look to be big dogs against poodles? So what did you expect if not those two pulling away from the field? If the pace was scorching, I'd understand the speed dual talk, but it wasn't, and horses race every day through reasonable fraction that close between the first two. No one complains about the speed dual though. You all are doing so based on the visual of the two drawing off from the others. I just don't consider what happened as a speed dual in the typical use of the term.

[alhattab]

This was a day or so before the Preakness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUOgYFLOsc

Chad is not rude, short, unkind, a bit of a prick, or whatever else you want to call him.

Do you know him?

I can tell you he's extremely focused, a quieter presence. He's not a Baffert and never will intend to be.

Trainers have been disappointed with rides before. This is not anything new. And you should know this.

Thanks for the video Grits. I watched it. Didn't really take anything away from it other than that he wanted to be close up and save ground. This plan appears to have been executed effectively. Maybe he changed his mind after he saw the way the track was playing and gave different instructions.

I do not know Chad Brown. Hence, "I've heard he's a bit of a prick". I don't know where the words "rude, short, unkind" come from- I have not used them on this Forum to describe Chad Brown.

[Spalding No!]

This entire conversation strikes me as odd. Didn't these two look to be big dogs against poodles? So what did you expect if not those two pulling away from the field? If the pace was scorching, I'd understand the speed dual talk, but it wasn't, and horses race every day through reasonable fraction that close between the first two. No one complains about the speed dual though. You all are doing so based on the visual of the two drawing off from the others. I just don't consider what happened as a speed dual in the typical use of the term.
The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.

The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.

That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...

[jay68802]

The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.

The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.

That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...

Agree with this. And if Jose did not go to the lead, Smith would have just slowed a little bit after getting the lead, backed GM into a place where he could not get out, and then GM is in a really bad spot.

[Grits]

Thanks for the video Grits. I watched it. Didn't really take anything away from it other than that he wanted to be close up and save ground. This plan appears to have been executed effectively. Maybe he changed his mind after he saw the way the track was playing and gave different instructions.

I do not know Chad Brown. Hence, "I've heard he's a bit of a prick". I don't know where the words "rude, short, unkind" come from- I have not used them on this Forum to describe Chad Brown.

I know you haven't used those other words, Alhattab. I was just throwing out examples....things that we sometimes say about others for whatever reason. I can tell you. He isn't what you termed, nor is anyone in his family. His mom and dad are great friends of mine. We spend a lot of time together every August when I'm in Saratoga. They are all really fine people, very close.

[porchy44]

The Derby Winner goes off at 1/5 in the Preakness. NO Way your beating Justify with a clear comfortable easy lead. He opens up in the stretch. Probably beats Good Magic and the field by much more. Racing 101. This isn't "straight alignment harness racing" I wish we had more Jockey's with a set.

[metro]

The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.

The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.

That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...

Not sure of the exact distance but because of the run-up on sprints at Pimlico you basically have to take a full second off of the first quarter times to get a better gauge of early speed.

There are run-ups for routes at Pimlico as well. For better explanation would reference comments CJ made in his thread about the TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes races on BES and Preakness days.

[Spalding No!]

Not sure of the exact distance but because of the run-up on sprints at Pimlico you basically have to take a full second off of the first quarter times to get a better gauge of early speed.

There are run-ups for routes at Pimlico as well. For better explanation would reference comments CJ made in his thread about the TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes races on BES and Preakness days.
I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

[big frank]

Brown is a cry baby and sounded like a child after the race............Grow up Baby Chad !

[metro]

I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

Guess the question becomes, how long does it take (in feet or yards) a horse to get up to race speed? Another data point that's above my handicapping grade.

[GMB@BP]

I did see that post and I misread the important point. The run up for the Preakness was shorter than the run up for the other routes but much longer than the sprints. I had read it thinking that the run up for the Preakness (and Pimlico Special) was 30 feet and all other races were 55 feet. Not true.

So my comment about the Preakness opening quarter outstripping a few of the sprints holds no water. But--if I'm thinking about this correctly--the rest of it still stands. The fact that the run up is shorter for the Preakness than the other routes actually enhances how quick the early pace was relative to those other route races.

Thanks for the heads up.

There is no need to worry about run ups and different distances, CJ has that built into all his figures.

Here are the pace figures for the 4f and 6f mark for each stakes race

Preakness 140 137 (9.5F)
Pim Specil 138 137 (9.5F)
Blck Eyed 115 109 (9)
Dupont Dist 132 124 (9)
James Murph 120 112 (8.5)
Sir Barton 126 120 (8.5F)

So Justify and Good Magic, at the longest race all weekend, set the fasted 6f pace, and THEN opened up on the field, Justify put away a champion race horse and tired at the end.

It was not a good effort, it was a GREAT effort.

[papillon]

the BAD ride was because he slowly drifted towards THE DEAD rail....knew he was done just after the turn for home....if roles had been reversed...who knows....but he was slowly herded in by the bigger intimidating horse...and then buried....

He was bumped into it.

Pull up the video, when you get to the turn on the stretch, right when Collmus says Good Magic puts a head in front. Boom. Good Magic ran the rest of the race on the rail, Justify shifted to the 2 path.

Had he not run the end of the stretch on the rail, he likely would have hit the board at least, he almost did anyway, and apparently that is all Chad Brown and a lot of "fans" seem to have wanted. Not a horse race, but a script. And this why dirt racing is going to hell.

Everyone is mad at Ortiz because he went off script. Jose himself said he didn't take back because the pace was too slow, just as it appeared to everyone who was watching it in real time and believed until they were told they were wrong afterward. Smith's bizarre immediate post-race comment only really makes sense if you it apply it to the bump. He answered a question he wasn't asked. Otherwise, it is nonsensical.

Anywho,

Ortiz improved Good Magic's position vis a vis Justify by one and a half lengths. There is nothing that says Good Magic still wouldn't have been passed by either Bravazo and/or Tenfold had Ortiz behaved himself. I'll give you any odds you want that had Ortiz taken back, he would not have won.

People insisting the pace was fast should listen to Jose Ortiz's immediate interview with Scott Hazelton--the one before he got scapegoated by Brown. Then listen to Bravazo's jockey's immediate post-race interview with Scott. He said he was right behind them and was not having trouble keeping up. He said he'd been sitting just off of Justify since the 1/2.

The fog has really screwed up people's perceptions of the race, because they couldn't see what was going on and made up much of what they think they saw. A jockey on a dark horse in dark silks on the outside in dense fog is invisible, and Bravazo was. He was there the whole time.

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

[cj]

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

You don't need to accept anything, but personally I wish you'd just leave me out of your arguments. You made things up in the GOAT thread about me and when I replied you didn't have the courtesy to respond.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2318113&postcount=7

I don't know what your problem is with me and I really don't care, but i'm not going to take the bait again.

[GMB@BP]

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.

You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes about pace and speed figures...should always be taken with a grain of salt!

[Spalding No!]

There is no need to worry about run ups and different distances, CJ has that built into all his figures.
There's a couple of folks on here who are dismissing his figures outright for some reason and claiming the pace was slow. I figured I'd present a cruder way of demonstrating that the pace was fast, by simply comparing the raw Preakness splits with the other route races over the weekend. I think it's fairly clear from just those alone (though CJs figures certainly throw it into much more striking relief).

So Justify and Good Magic, at the longest race all weekend, set the fasted 6f pace, and THEN opened up on the field, Justify put away a champion race horse and tired at the end.
I think the duel was unfortunate because it gutted both horses and left them vulnerable to a handful of rather undistinguished horses.

Earlier I posted about how maybe all those troubled trips in the Derby may have put Justify a bit further above the rest of the crop than he really was considering how close Bravazo and Lone Sailor got at Pimlico, but now I'm starting to think that the long-winded duel made them look a lot better than they really are.

The only 2 horses who have shown they can even remotely hang with Justify are Good Magic and Bolt D'Oro, and neither one will be in the Belmont Stakes.

Hofburg better find some of that tactical speed he showed in his maiden, Vino Rosso better make sure he gets involved in the far turn as he did in the Wood and his first 2 starts, and Solomino better uncork some of that front-running speed he displayed in the BC Juvenile or it's going to be another merry-go-round a la American Pharoah...

At least those 3 have the requisite Tapit or Curlin pedigree that's dominated the race the last few years.

[pandy]

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

True, but that's easy to say after the race. Ortiz had a GR1 winner who had just run a huge race in the Derby. It's not like he was riding a weak horse.

Those of you who know Brad Thomas (Monmouth), he praised Jose Ortiz's ride on TVG yesterday. He said something like, "that's what racing is about, you try to win when you have a good horse" .

[pandy]

In fairness to Jose he had just had a front row seat on Title Ready to Mike Smith and Ax Man's unchallenged front running win in the Sir Barton. Been there, done that.

Good Magic's only shot at winning was to engage Justify and the fractions were reasonable. Ortiz surely would have preferred more of an outside pressing type situation but didn't have the luxury of sacrificing his position, especially considering what had shown to be a speed favoring surface on most all prior races.

Good analysis. I don't see how Jose can be criticized when he drew inside of Justify, and, the pace was slow. He certainly didn't kill his horse in a wicked pace.

[Fager Fan]

You can accept whatever you want, jockey quotes about pace and speed figures...should always be taken with a grain of salt!

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

[cj]

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

How hard the horse is working, yes. How fast they are actually going, no.

[GMB@BP]

These statements about jocks and trainers always lying or being wrong is such nonsense. No one has a better idea of how fast a horse is running or how hard a horse is working than the guy on its back, particularly after they're familiar with the horse.

I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to look at the figures for the day and they were blazing.

I have had trainers say the horse was dead ready before the race and then say he needed a race after.

I am not saying they dont have a good idea, just that what they say can be inconsistent.

[Fager Fan]

How hard the horse is working, yes. How fast they are actually going, no.

That's why I said if they're familiar with the horse. A horse's way of going, particularly the big strided ones who go fast easily, can fool them at first by going faster than they thought.

[Fager Fan]

I have had jockeys say the pace was slow only to look at the figures for the day and they were blazing.

I have had trainers say the horse was dead ready before the race and then say he needed a race after.

I am not saying they dont have a good idea, just that what they say can be inconsistent.

I acknowledge that trainers and riders can be wrong, but they're still in a position to be more right than anyone. The idea that all are wrong or lying all the time is what I take exception to. Some are always honest and more often than not right, some are at the other extreme, and others land in between. I think it's far wiser if you're seeking the truth to look for what makes sense.

[classhandicapper]

This is the flip side of what happens when the jockeys aren't aggressive enough and grab instead.

In a battle up front, the faster and higher quality speed usually puts away the inferior one and often causes the inferior one to blow finishing positions. Going with him made it more likely he would blow a position (which he did) and possibly get Justify beat also, but IMO, it was no more likely he would beat him.

Had Ortiz pulled back off him, there's no way he would have beaten him either, but he would have finished second.

You are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

The only way Good Magic was going to beat Justify was if Ortiz stayed within a length without using his horse and then just hoped Justify was sub par or his own horse moved forward enough to do so.

Dueling is almost never the right answer for anyone, but especially not the 2nd or 3rd best horse trying to take on the best horse.

[pandy]

I finally saw the Jose Ortiz interview with Scott Hazelton that appeared live on TVG yesterday. TVG just showed it. Jose explained the trip very well, he said that he wanted to let Justify go, and get the stalking trip, but, he said that Justify wasn't going fast enough and Mike Smith wasn't going to push him to the lead. So, basically, he said he had no choice, and that it would have been different if he had drawn inside of Justify.

He explained it perfectly and emphasized several times that in that situation, his horse was going easy and felt good. We have to realize that in order to let Justify cross over to the rail, he would have had to take a stern hold on his horse and if you think he got criticized for this ride, imagine if he takes a choke hold of Good Magic and strangles him back. He actually said that he started to take a hold but the pace just wasn't fast enough.

Anyway, it was a very good interview to watch and listen to the way Jose explained it.

[Spalding No!]

He explained it perfectly and emphasized several times that in that situation, his horse was going easy and felt good. We have to realize that in order to let Justify cross over to the rail, he would have had to take a stern hold on his horse and if you think he got criticized for this ride, imagine if he takes a choke hold of Good Magic and strangles him back. He actually said that he started to take a hold but the pace just wasn't fast enough.
But the pace was fast and Bravazo, who broke sharply and ranged up on Justify's outside in the first several yards, was taken a hold of through the first turn and had no trouble settling nicely into a stalking position.

Ortiz certainly had a tougher job than Saez on Bravazo to get his mount to settle from the inside, and Quip--who also was up close briefly and elected to take back--may have sealed his fate by opening up the inside completely. However, it wasn't a crush of horses into the first turn as it was in the Derby, and conceivably he could have taken a sharp hold and flanked Bravazo down the backstretch instead locking horns with Justify on the front end.

From there, if his other races are any indication, I think Good Magic would have more of a rally on the far turn than either Bravazo or Tenfold, who were left in the dust and only rallied in mid stretch when Justify (and Good Magic) began to tire.

Of course, Justify--if Smith had been able to slow down the pace (not necessarily a given)--probably would have had more in reserve and we might have got a carbon copy of the final quarter of the Kentucky Derby. But at least Good Magic would have taken his shot at the appropriate point in the race (about a 1/4 mile out) and not tried some herculean effort from first turn onwards.

I would go even further and suggest that had Good Magic worked out the appropriate trip and still come up a bit short in the Preakness, there would be at least a sliver of a chance that Chad Brown would change his mind and try the Belmont. Now, after that gut busting effort, there is no chance of that.

[classhandicapper]

It's questionable how fast that pace was.

Bravazo is not some spectacular speed horse and he was within 1-3 lengths for most of the early part of the race. That's exactly where you'd expect him to be relative to a horse like Justify if the pace was mildly fast and he was forwardly placed behind the lead.

I strongly suspect that between the track being kind to speed and the pace not being exceptionally fast, the battle up front was only a mild issue for the top two. Maybe it took 2-3 lengths out of each of them.

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

[GMB@BP]

It's questionable how fast that pace was.

Bravazo is not some spectacular speed horse and he was within 1-3 lengths for most of the early part of the race. That's exactly where you'd expect him to be relative to a horse like Justify if the pace was mildly fast and he was forwardly placed behind the lead.

I strongly suspect that between the track being kind to speed and the pace not being exceptionally fast, the battle up front was only a mild issue for the top two. Maybe it took 2-3 lengths out of each of them.

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at the front end of both his Alw win and the Risen Star? I dont think he is a midpack horse by any means. He was 3 lengths off it, I bet that matches up with his paces in those earlier races.

[classhandicapper]

I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at the front end of both his Alw win and the Risen Star? I dont think he is a midpack horse by any means. He was 3 lengths off it, I bet that matches up with his paces in those earlier races.

He's never been on the lead, but he's stalked in 2nd and has been a close 3rd a few times depending on the field and pace. He's not a front runner or speed horse by any means. That's why I say if the pace was actually really hot, he wouldn't have been 1.5, 2, and then 3 lengths behind at the first 3 calls. They would have opened up on him. He took a position that seems very logical given his style and that Justify is a faster speed horse. The pace was probably mildly fast.

[thaskalos]

To me, the crucial point was that Good Magic had to be taken away from his customary style of running in order to keep Justify from enjoying an uncontested lead. What prior indication had Good Magic given to suggest that a push to a contested pace against a superior horse would enhance GM's chances of winning the race? IMO...it's wrong to relegate the second-best horse in the race to the role of a "rabbit", against an obviously superior horse.

[GMB@BP]

I wasnt sure if it was jockey speak at the time but this is pretty interesting about Justify's trip, and how he was ridden at the end.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/letswastemoney/Did_jumping_the_tracks_cost_Justify_in_the_Preakne ss_123

hard to quantify either way, but interesting none the less.

[boys at tosconova]

To me, the crucial point was that Good Magic had to be taken away from his customary style of running in order to keep Justify from enjoying an uncontested lead. What prior indication had Good Magic given to suggest that a push to a contested pace against a superior horse would enhance GM's chances of winning the race? IMO...it's wrong to relegate the second-best horse in the race to the role of a "rabbit", against an obviously superior horse.


it's much more than wrong. it's flat out stupid. you take your chances in the lane. everyone just assumes justy would romp, but yon't know that. a very compromising trip at center stage for everyone to see no less

arguing the lead in pinned against very mucky rail as a strat line which was never taken before. you expect this kind of chit from a po-dunk jock or a horse in a 5k claimer

[clicknow]

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

Ortiz, after the KY Derby, and before GM was even committed to the Preakness:

"Justify is the toughest opponent we faced by far. He can win on the lead or he can win sitting just off the lead as he did when Promises Fulfilled set a hot pace in the Derby. My hope is that we will break well and that someone else will want to go with Justify. That would definitely make my job easier.

The one thing I cannot afford is for Justify to get loose on the lead. Good Magic is very responsive to me. If I have to ask him for speed early, he will have no problem with that. If I have to turn the Preakness into a match race, I will turn it into a match race. If Justify is going to win again, I am going to make sure he earns it."

It sounds to me like Ortiz understood the situation. He knew Justify "could win" on the lead or sitting just off the lead, and he also knew that he couldn't let Justify get loose on the lead.

Not being in the saddle myself, he does seem to have grasped the dilemma he was going to face.

[Spalding No!]

Ortiz, after the KY Derby, and before GM was even committed to the Preakness:

"Justify is the toughest opponent we faced by far. He can win on the lead or he can win sitting just off the lead as he did when Promises Fulfilled set a hot pace in the Derby. My hope is that we will break well and that someone else will want to go with Justify. That would definitely make my job easier.

The one thing I cannot afford is for Justify to get loose on the lead. Good Magic is very responsive to me. If I have to ask him for speed early, he will have no problem with that. If I have to turn the Preakness into a match race, I will turn it into a match race. If Justify is going to win again, I am going to make sure he earns it."

It sounds to me like Ortiz understood the situation. He knew Justify "could win" on the lead or sitting just off the lead, and he also knew that he couldn't let Justify get loose on the lead.

Not being in the saddle myself, he does seem to have grasped the dilemma he was going to face.
...and spells out in black-and-white how Ortiz had no intention of riding Good Magic to win, but rather rode to make sure Justify "earned" his victory. Again, pure folly and actually the complete opposite of "sportsmanship".

Ortiz would have been great on Forty Niner in the 1988 Preakness.

Did Chad Brown see these quotes before the race?

[Robert Fischer]

I can't fault the ride, but I guess he should have gone really slow into the first turn and try to force Mike to either open up so he could switch out, or REALLY slow the pace to a crawl.

That's kind of asking for a 'great' ride in retrospect, as opposed to being really fair about how the race developed. That's something, where if Ortiz ever finds himself in that position again, to be prepared 'in case' shit happens again.


He broke to the front
Mike played chess with a 1200 tractor trailor
The pace itself was within Good Magic's capability, but not if you include that Justify is going to win 8/10 'match-races' and is going to bump him off his stride as they enter the far turn


That bump is more what I think about when I think about when you talk about being pressed into the fence. Some horses don't want to be 'pinned on the rail' but GM is classy and professional. You also save a length of ground. But when Justify hits you like a solid rock right before you're asked the question, it's no contest. Already going to lose by a length or so in a stretch drive from pure difference of ability, and then you lose another length because Mike Smith is a champion and going to tax you for riding along with him. GM only lost by about 1.25 Lengths.

You can't be in that inside position neck&neck unless you have more horse, or you plan on hitting first and trying to herd. That would have been ugly. Maybe Justify gets put up if he had been herded, -but maybe Tenfold or Bravazo would have won then. We go from a Triple Crown Belmont to Bravazo vs Audible...

These guys are used to dominating and having fair trips, and then they face a horse like Justify and a HOFer on a good run like Mike, and there's no room for error. Situations have to be worked through.

"Now, If you break on top, slow the pace to a crawl and start moving out wide Jose".

Maybe that's what Brown said to Jose? Or maybe he left it up to the rider, and they both learned a lesson.

[clicknow]

...and spells out in black-and-white how Ortiz had no intention of riding Good Magic to win

I left out the part where he said "we are going to win this". ;)

I'll save my criticism for all the connections who ran in the Derby and other ones who didn't show up for this race. Most of them didn't think they could beat Justify so they just threw in the towel and didn't bother.

My opinion is that Ortiz went in wanting to win this. I think he would have been criticized no matter what he did, because winning against Justify is obviously a tall order...beating Mike Smith is a 2nd tall order.

[Spalding No!]

...beating Mike Smith is a 2nd tall order.
Smith usually beats himself, which is why Ortiz should have let the chips fall where they may instead of forcing Smith to just ride the race straight without any gimmicks or bold maneuvers.

[NY BRED]

regardless of trainers, jockey position from gate to finish and trainer comparison, here is my simple take:

Check out the pedigree on Justify; any doubts about stamina, speed ,
ability to run on any dirt surface, or for that matter turf are incredible;

Sure, you can probably make a case for some of his opponents, and cite the difficulty winning the Triple Crown, especially witnessing this scenario in two straight years with the same trainer.

Whatever the response, one incredible fact remains; Justify never raced as a two year old, and if he does win this last leg, trainers may follow this training pattern for their top yearlings.


Lots of karma for #2 for both trainer and horse; if Justify draws post 2,
this dream becomes (hopefully) reality!

:headbanger::headbanger:

[pandy]

The key part of the Ortiz interview was, as he mentioned, he drew inside of Justify. He had to leave, and then Smith took a hold of his horse and was intent with stalking, good move as it turned out, it put Ortiz in a situation where he would have had to take a hard hold of his horse, which as we know, often takes something out of them. This was not a turf race. Ortiz said he started to take a hold of him but decided that the pace was too slow.

[PaceAdvantage]

People insisting the pace was fast should listen to Jose Ortiz's immediate interview with Scott Hazelton--the one before he got scapegoated by Brown. Then listen to Bravazo's jockey's immediate post-race interview with Scott. He said he was right behind them and was not having trouble keeping up. He said he'd been sitting just off of Justify since the 1/2.

The fog has really screwed up people's perceptions of the race, because they couldn't see what was going on and made up much of what they think they saw. A jockey on a dark horse in dark silks on the outside in dense fog is invisible, and Bravazo was. He was there the whole time.

For those that say I must accept CJ''s pace figures, thank you for your concern.Yeah...the first time I go to a jockey to learn about how fast or slow a pace was, is the time you need to put me out to pasture as a handicapper.

Are you for real?

Listen to Spalding No! if you don't want to listen to cj.

Or better yet, listen to how hard Justify was blowing right after the race...you can hear it loud and clear on the pony girl's mic right after he pulls up.

That pace was fast, not slow. Anyone who says otherwise has some weird ass agenda full of "scripts" or whatever other tin-foil-hat-wearing garbage you want to call it.

Stop with the nonsense.

[Blenheim]

Recall the Preakness Stakes last year, Classic Empire on the outside of and against the swifty Always Dreaming to the inside. Classic Empire had to go and challenge the swifty to see what he had, that's what horseracin is all about; top of the stretch the swifty folded. In this Preakness same scenario, different positions on the track with Good Magic on the inside, swifty Justify on the outside, the swifty held on, but just barely - likely benefited from a wet track.

Good Magic had to challenge the swifty to see what he had, who knows, swifty might have folded. Not challenging would have been the failure.

W/respect to all the comments, makes good drama, that's about it . . . I think the race may have "softened" Justify. It will be interesting and critical to see how he recovers come the next few weeks.

[f2tornado]

That pace was fast, not slow. Anyone who says otherwise has some weird ass agenda full of "scripts" or whatever other tin-foil-hat-wearing garbage you want to call it.

Stop with the nonsense.

He didn’t say it was slow. He said it wasn’t fast. Jerry Bailey said similar. The clock agrees. The 6F fraction was the same as it has been for every three year old route race at any track all year long. But every time Justify runs a 1:11 and change at 6F it’s blazing to you. Pardon those who disagree.

[GMB@BP]

He didn’t say it was slow. He said it wasn’t fast. Jerry Bailey said similar. The clock agrees. The 6F fraction was the same as it has been for every three year old route race at any track all year long. But every time Justify runs a 1:11 and change at 6F it’s blazing to you. Pardon those who disagree.

Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all that fast after the whole raw time debacle in the SA Derby? Which by the way had the same exact pace numbers as the Preakness.

It was right then and its right now. The final time of the preakness was average, I do agree there, much better than American Pharoah though.

Lets play raw time games

Justify 1:56.93
American Phoroah 1:58.46
California Chrome 154.84

So California Chrome is 10 lengths better than Justify, who is 7 lengths better than American Phoroah.

ok.

[Spalding No!]

Recall the Preakness Stakes last year, Classic Empire on the outside of and against the swifty Always Dreaming to the inside. Classic Empire had to go and challenge the swifty to see what he had, that's what horseracin is all about; top of the stretch the swifty folded. In this Preakness same scenario, different positions on the track with Good Magic on the inside, swifty Justify on the outside, the swifty held on, but just barely - likely benefited from a wet track.
The difference is that Good Magic has been a dedicated stalker his entire career up to this point while the beleaguered Classic Empire had good front-running speed.

In his first route, the 2017 Breeder's Futurity, Classic Empire was parked 5 or 6 wide into the first turn while the speedy Wild Shot, who later did his best running around one-turn, established the early lead.

In the 2016 BC Juvenile, Classic Empire broke sharply and contested the pace with Syndergaard, who had set one of the fastest paces on the 2017 Derby Trail one race earlier in the Champagne. Right behind those two was the speedy Three Rules, who later may have set the fastest pace on the 2017 Derby Trail in the Fountain of Youth (which fried another speedster in Irish War Cry).

Classic Empire's winter campaign was beset with all sorts of problems. In his comeback, the Arkansas Derby, he was sharp from the gate near the inside but had to steady and check out of the battle for the early lead when sandwiched going into the first turn.

In the Kentucky Derby, Classic Empire took a beating coming out of the gate and lost all chance for a forward position.

Also, in the end, Classic Empire was defeated in the Preakness, and both trainer Mark Casse and jockey Julian Leparoux blamed themselves for the defeat as Always Dreaming had folded like a cheap suit and left Classic Empire with a clear lead way too early, leaving him a sitting duck down the lane. They should have played the odds that Chad Brown was trying to play with the potential regression of the Derby winner (albeit much more likely with a Pletcher horse than a Baffert horse...)

[f2tornado]

Didnt we dispense with the Justify is not all that fast after the whole raw time debacle in the SA Derby? Which by the way had the same exact pace numbers as the Preakness.

It was right then and its right now. The final time of the preakness was average, I do agree there, much better than American Pharoah though.

Lets play raw time games

Justify 1:56.93
American Phoroah 1:58.46
California Chrome 154.84

So California Chrome is 10 lengths better than Justify, who is 7 lengths better than American Phoroah.

ok.

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions. If 1:11 and change at any track is the 2018 gold standard for hot pace then so be it.

[Spalding No!]

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions.
Not really:

Lexington - 1:12
Arkansas Derby - 1:13.2
Santa Anita Derby - 1:12.6
Blue Grass - 1:11.8
Wood Memorial - 1:11.4
Florida Derby - 1:11.6
Louisiana Derby - 1:11.4
Rebel - 1:11.2
San Felipe - 1:11.2
Tampa Bay Derby - 1:13.6
Fountain of Youth - 1:12.6

Among the fastest prep paces, the San Felipe had a pacesetter who was coming off a 6 furlong maiden victory just a few weeks before. The Wood featured a run-off frontrunner who folded after 5 furlongs or so. The Florida Derby featured an epic meltdown between Derby frontrunner Promises Fulfilled and soon-to-be sprinter Strike Power.

The Rebel featured Title Ready, who just chased the speedy Ax Man in the Sir Barton on Saturday. He'd been an interesting entrant in the Belmont to aid stablemate Tenfold in the face, similar to Gettysburg setting the pace for eventual winner Creator in 2016.

[Valuist]

The raw 6F time of 1:11 and change has been extremely consistent across all preps, in all conditions, and through the TC races themselves. Justify alone ran on three different surfaces with 6F fractions. If 1:11 and change at any track is the 2018 gold standard for hot pace then so be it.

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

[f2tornado]

Not really:

Lexington - 1:12
Arkansas Derby - 1:13.2
Santa Anita Derby - 1:12.6
Blue Grass - 1:11.8
Wood Memorial - 1:11.4
Florida Derby - 1:11.6
Louisiana Derby - 1:11.4
Rebel - 1:11.2
San Felipe - 1:11.2
Tampa Bay Derby - 1:13.6
Fountain of Youth - 1:12.6

Close enough. You found four races in eleven you selected that have a time over 1:12. Add these four and we're at four out of 15.

Holy Bull 1:12
BC Juvenile 1:12
Sam Davis 1:11.1
FrontRunner 1:11.4

I've always felt a sub 1:11 6F fraction was getting hot and a sub 1:10 red hot. Think Bodemeister, Trinniberg, Palace Malace, Danzing Candy, Dortmund (in preps). This crop has no idea what it's like to have bona fide speed last between the 3/4 and mile pole. I don't doubt Jose Ortiz one bit who rode the race and said it was easy. I have no reason to doubt Jerry Bailey commentating that it was modest. The very clock itself supports it. Maybe Santa Anita is slow this year but it's highly doubtful every damn track in America is slow.

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

I'm not. I'm comparing 6F prep and TC times across America. There simply are none below 1:11. There used to be. So, either ALL the tracks got slow or the horses simply don't go that fast this year.

[Spalding No!]

Close enough. You found four races in eleven you selected that have a time over 1:12. Add these four and we're at four out of 15.
Now you're changing the goal posts. 1:12 is the new cutoff? You said the 1:11+ fraction was "extremely" consistent this year. It is nothing close to that including 3 of the last prep races to be run. Furthermore, of the preps that had comparable 6f splits to the Preakness, those races clearly had fast paces featuring run offs, speed duels, and stretch out sprinters. Does the Preakness pace fail to be fast just because we've seen other fast paces along the Derby trail?

Meanwhile, we're clearly ignoring a lot of important factors by crudely comparing raw 6f splits, one of the most important being that the Preakness is a longer race than any of those and yet had a faster split than most.

[Robert Fischer]

You can't possibly compare a raw dry track time from Track A a month earlier to a sloppy track time from Track B a month later. Apples and grapefruits.

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea M:mad:nsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

#WOKE :eek:

[jay68802]

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea M:mad:nsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

Can I interest any one in my new angle. It is called the "Fake Speed Figure Angle". This is going to be a real money maker. If you doubt me, just look at how intelligent my Avatar looks, you will then follow this angle blindly.

[f2tornado]

You should really see f2tornado/LoneF/Pappilon's 'Flat-Earth' crew stuff in the off topic board before criticizing.

Once you realize that we aren't just slowly falling off the Cliffs of Dover, but that Sea M:mad:nsters have been paddling us closer to our descent, you'll consider that 'Raw Times' need no adjustment. You'll realize that we're being bamboozled by CJ and his carefully crafted pace figures. I'm pretty sure that the whole California Crew was in on it this year, and jogged their horses for the weeks leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, so we wouldn't know how slow Justify actually is.

#WOKE :eek:

Sub 1:11 spits used to be more commonplace. Did every track get slow? I am not criticizing the figure makers. In fact, I'll even rescind my rant about Beyer a couple months ago. I'm merely skeptical the Preakness pace was "fast". The riders agree. I can otherwise play some Billy Joel, "You may be right, I may be crazy". Not sure where the flat earth nonsense came from. I guess Jose Ortiz and Jerry Bailey are flat earth material too.

[Robert Fischer]

Sub 1:11 spits used to be more commonplace. Did every track get slow? I am not criticizing the figure makers. In fact, I'll even rescind my rant about Beyer a couple months ago. I'm merely skeptical the Preakness pace was "fast". The riders agree. I can otherwise play some Billy Joel, "You may be right, I may be crazy". Not sure where the flat earth nonsense came from. I guess Jose Ortiz and Jerry Bailey are flat earth material too.

Because claiming that Raw Times can be compared meaningfully across races, is analogous to claiming that the Earth is Flat.

If Alex Rodriguez and Tommy Lasorda mention batting average, it doesn't make Batting Average a good stat.

And even if you tried to use batting average to reference hitting, a raw comparison of a team from from 2017 when the league Avg was .255 to to 2000 when it was .271 is asinine.

You could get a new car for about $600 during the depression. That does not mean cars were super cheap back then.

[GMB@BP]

I guess Jose Ortiz and Jerry Bailey are flat earth material too.

Jerry Bailey said Justify should not run in the Derby after watching the SA Derby, his opinion, at times, seem clouded.

Tremendous positional rider though!

[GMB@BP]

Jose Ortiz says pace was slow...ok, his opinion, numbers dont back it up

Ortiz says it was a bad ride...his opinion, whole thread has 3/4 quarters saying it was a good ride.

They are riders, not handicappers. and that goes for many a trainer as well.

[f2tornado]

Because claiming that Raw Times can be compared meaningfully across races, is analogous to claiming that the Earth is Flat.

I don't claim anything of the sort. I only claim there has not been a sub 1:11 6F call prep at any track in the country. Using your BA analogy, the 6F batting average is weaker this year while the parks are the same. If 1:11+ is the new HOF material then so be it. We can agree to disagree. It's really not worth getting in a pissing match over.

[clicknow]

They are riders, not handicappers. and that goes for many a trainer as well.

and we are handicappers, not riders.

There are things "we" will never be able to perceive "in the moment" like a rider can. They can see the gaits of others in front of them, tell by watching their back legs if the horse is tiring, they have a kinetic connection to the horse they are on and can see up close what ears, etc. are doing, as well as feel what is under them in any 10 second time span.

This is why, while you can watch a replay 50 times, you will never have that kinetic feel-based connection with any horse in the race.......you are only *watching*.

Numbers after the race do help validate perceptions either way. Still not the whole story.