Who ever said the lack of 2-year old racing experience is limited to the K. Derby?

[Bill Cullen]

Who ever said the lack of 2-year old racing experience is limited to the K. Derby?

Maybe we saw a little bit of that in today in Justify's Preakness performance along with some possible regression.

Those two doubts will in all probability give us a larger field in the Belmont.

If I were a trainer and assuming we're getting a dry track, I'd put a rabbit in there in an entry with a solid closer.

Just some thoughts from a dry brain in a wet season.

Bill C

[Fightingirish51195]

I think it’s a serious, serious concern for he Belmont.

[Spalding No!]

If I were a trainer and assuming we're getting a dry track, I'd put a rabbit in there in an entry with a solid closer.

The problem is, the best pairing close to your specifications would be Noble Indy as rabbit for Audible in the Belmont for Todd Pletcher. They are both owned by Winstar Farm, the owner of Justify.

However, the second best pairing might be the Steve Asmussen pair of Tenfold and "rabbit" Tap Daddy (who wired the off-the-turf James Murphy at Pimlico today) for owner Ron Winchell.

[dilanesp]

I don't think it is that. Curlin ran well in the Preakness and Belmont.

It is silly to attach talismanic significance to stuff that didn't hsppen 6 months ago.

[GMB@BP]

I would be shocked if Audible is in that race, the amount of money they stand to lose is enormous. It makes no sense, unless you feel like a win by Audible enhances his value more than the TC, something the Belmont only slightly does now in modern breeding.

[PaceMasterT]

The problem is, the best pairing close to your specifications would be Noble Indy as rabbit for Audible in the Belmont for Todd Pletcher. They are both owned by Winstar Farm, the owner of Justify.

However, the second best pairing might be the Steve Asmussen pair of Tenfold and "rabbit" Tap Daddy (who wired the off-the-turf James Murphy at Pimlico today) for owner Ron Winchell.

I don't know, having both the KD and Preakness winner and the Belmont winner from the same year in your "lineup" would probably be pretty lucrative.

I'm picturing a cat house in Nevada in my mind as I type.

[Bill Cullen]

It is silly to attach talismanic significance to stuff that didn't hsppen 6 months ago.

I tried in my previous entry opening up this thread to use tentative diction to suggest that (being my main point) that the lack of 2-year racing experience segues well into a regression in form going into the Belmont Stakes.

There is some empirical evidence to suggest that, aside from the so called curse of Apollo," a lack of racing experience across a number of dimensions
does not for the most part bode well. Across distance and surface parameters this is most evident. Across the 2 to 3 year old age continuum, I do not really have a firm sense of the implications. I do suspect, though, that not racing when a horse is two years old will typically have a negative impact on most racing stock in post racing year seasons.

Bill C

[Fightingirish51195]

I tried in my previous entry opening up this thread to use tentative diction to suggest that (being my main point) that the lack of 2-year racing experience segues well into a regression in form going into the Belmont Stakes.

There is some empirical evidence to suggest that, aside from the so called curse of Apollo," a lack of racing experience across a number of dimensions
does not for the most part bode well. Across distance and surface parameters this is most evident. Across the 2 to 3 year old age continuum, I do not really have a firm sense of the implications. I do suspect, though, that not racing when a horse is two years old will typically have a negative impact on most racing stock in post racing year seasons.

Bill C

Totally agreed

[paulbenny]

Clearly the Derby is all about points, but in the Belmont, you can do what you want unless someone tells me otherwise. There is no doubt that a clear cut rabbit like the old days and this horse Justify could fail, without a doubt. It is going to be difficult to avoid someone saying hey, I think he is vulnerable after this and he probably is.

[Spalding No!]

I would be shocked if Audible is in that race, the amount of money they stand to lose is enormous. It makes no sense, unless you feel like a win by Audible enhances his value more than the TC, something the Belmont only slightly does now in modern breeding.
Plus Audible seems better suited to the Woody Stephens (or the Met Mile perhaps) and ultimately the BC Dirt Mile.

Unless the slop affected his performance, he had a fairly clean trip (with an enterprising move by Castellano along the rail) in the Derby, and didn't rally enough to threaten Justify.

[Redboard]

Justify didn't win the derby wire-to-wire. I think the horse can rate and a rabbit wouldn't necessarily doom him in the Belmont.

[dilanesp]

I tried in my previous entry opening up this thread to use tentative diction to suggest that (being my main point) that the lack of 2-year racing experience segues well into a regression in form going into the Belmont Stakes.

There is some empirical evidence to suggest that, aside from the so called curse of Apollo," a lack of racing experience across a number of dimensions
does not for the most part bode well. Across distance and surface parameters this is most evident. Across the 2 to 3 year old age continuum, I do not really have a firm sense of the implications. I do suspect, though, that not racing when a horse is two years old will typically have a negative impact on most racing stock in post racing year seasons.

Bill C

Do you use this fsctor in handicapping 3 year old claiming races, or do you think it is a non factor except in 3 races a year?

[Bill Cullen]

Justify didn't win the derby wire-to-wire. I think the horse can rate and a rabbit wouldn't necessarily doom him in the Belmont.

Good point. He put away Good Magic in moderate fractions and one could argue that, even the lack of racing experience as a two year catching up with him, Justify still handled that so called Triple Crown racing constraint well enough, given a trainer like Baffert going forward.

[Fightingirish51195]

Do you use this fsctor in handicapping 3 year old claiming races, or do you think it is a non factor except in 3 races a year?

It’s apples and oranges. Experience matters in every race. But your talking about a grueling stretch of racing here

[dilanesp]

It’s apples and oranges. Experience matters in every race. But your talking about a grueling stretch of racing here

I think you will find claimers, on average, have far more hard races a year than stakes horses do.

I think that people assume these races just suspend the normal rules of handicapping in favor of esoterica that they would never think important in any orher context.

[Fightingirish51195]

:9:I think you will find claimers, on average, have far more hard races a year than stakes horses do.

I think that people assume these races just suspend the normal rules of handicapping in favor of esoterica that they would never think important in any orher context.

Some horses aren’t the same after the derby. The triple crown stretch is more grueling than any string of claiming races I can think of. I think it’s imoortant for a horse to have that foundation. It prepares them.

[Bill Cullen]

I think you will find claimers, on average, have far more hard races a year than stakes horses do.



I think it is safe to say that a 3-year going thru three triple crown races in five weeks is infinitely more grueling than any schedule any typical claimer would go thru except possibly the cruel scenario where a trainer simply sent the horse out to race when in all likelihood it might well break down.

[Bill Cullen]

:9:

Some horses aren’t the same after the derby. The triple crown stretch is more grueling than any string of claiming races I can think of. I think it’s imoortant for a horse to have that foundation. It prepares them.

Totally agree.

[dilanesp]

I think it is safe to say that a 3-year going thru three triple crown races in five weeks is infinitely more grueling than any schedule any typical claimer would go thru except possibly the cruel scenario where a trainer simply sent the horse out to race when in all likelihood it might well break down.

The TC is so tough on a horse that in the old days a fair number of horses threw an extra start in between the Preakness and Belmont.

The reality is TC horses are babied. Claimers can run every 2 weeks sometimes. A lot of handicapping mistakes are made by assuming that these very fit 3 year olds can't take frequent racing.

[Bill Cullen]

The TC is so tough on a horse that in the old days a fair number of horses threw an extra start in between the Preakness and Belmont.

The reality is TC horses are babied. Claimers can run every 2 weeks sometimes. A lot of handicapping mistakes are made by assuming that these very fit 3 year olds can't take frequent racing.

Implicit in every post in this thread is the most basic underlying question:

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?

An honest answer to that question is yes, but it's not written in stone.

[Fred Mertz]

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?




The Belmont Stakes is the longest and toughest IMO. He has been great so far, but I'm not sold on the third leg for him. Far from it.


I was there for California Chrome's try cheering him on. It didn't happen.

[dilanesp]

Implicit in every post in this thread is the most basic underlying question:

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?

An honest answer to that question is yes, but it's not written in stone.

I think he will lose, but I would feel the same way had his first start been as a 2 year old.