i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[dilanesp]

You saw a good horse at the end of his form cycle today. That had to take a ton out of him.

Bravazzo may beat him in 3 weeks. Someone will.

[SecretAgentMan]

Should be very interesting to see who runs against him

[Fightingirish51195]

You saw a good horse at the end of his form cycle today. That had to take a ton out of him.

Bravazzo may beat him in 3 weeks. Someone will.

Agree 100 percent

[cordoba]

Easy Moneys E A S :headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::h eadbanger::headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::hea dbanger::headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::headb anger:Y

[pandy]

I'm sure some people who bet Good Magic will complain but I'm glad Ortiz tested Justify, it made the race exciting. It was the only chance he had to beat him because no one else could run with Justify early.

[Fightingirish51195]

Bravazo will run in the Belmont if he checks out okay after this race. Ran a really nice derby too.I think he can run all day and I don’t think this race took much out of him. And he’s double bred for the wet so if it comes up muddy again, who knows. Really hope he runs. Also he may of Z patterned in this race but I couldn’t see. He ran a big race

[RunForTheRoses]

At the odds I am sure it is worth trying to beat him but this horse impresses the hell out of me...not sure he really relishes the off track goop it is his class getting him there. Outside all the way against real good horse who fades. this is something special.

[Fightingirish51195]

I'm sure some people who bet Good Magic will complain but I'm glad Ortiz tested Justify, it made the race exciting. It was the only chance he had to beat him because no one else could run with Justify early.

He was the guinea pig. If they let justify lope out there, it wouldn’t have been a race.

[GMB@BP]

Justify looked tired and I dont think it was a distance issue. Maybe this was his worst career race and he just needs the 3 weeks.

I would like to see a race where he can set the pace rather than dueling.

[porchy44]

2002- War Emblem (finished 8th at Belmont Stakes)
2003- Funny Cide (finished 3rd at Belmont Stakes)
2004- Smarty Jones (lost Belmont Stakes to Birdstone)
2008- Big Brown (DNF Belmont Stakes)
2012- I'll Have Another (did not race in Belmont Stakes due to injury)
2014- California Chrome (finished 4th at Belmont Stakes).

It's always tough to close the deal. New shooters coming in 3 weeks.

[elysiantraveller]

He was only beaten a length.

It's not like it wasn't a sound strategy.

Both horses appeared to bounce and still had class to carry them.

[metro]

You saw a good horse at the end of his form cycle today. That had to take a ton out of him.

Bravazzo may beat him in 3 weeks. Someone will.

Lukas will need a rabbit and that probably won't work either since Justify can rate. Smith went head to head today because the track was leaning so hard to speed. Justify won gallop out too.

[Fightingirish51195]

Justify looked tired and I dont think it was a distance issue. Maybe this was his worst career race and he just needs the 3 weeks.

I would like to see a race where he can set the pace rather than dueling.

He was tired, no doubt about that. Probably was his worst career race. I don’t think he’s got the foundation to win the grueling test that is the Belmont. Those big turns. If he gets caught in a duel, he won’t win in my opinion. I hope someone’s got the guts to go out there with him. I don’t want him to get an easy lead.

[dilanesp]

Lukas will need a rabbit and that probably won't work either since Justify can rate. Smith went head to head today because the track was leaning so hard to speed. Justify won gallop out too.

Smith said post race the horse was tiring. Baffert said he would only run in the Belmont if the preparation goes well.

Read the tea leaves here....

[jahura2]

You saw a good horse at the end of his form cycle today. That had to take a ton out of him.

Bravazzo may beat him in 3 weeks. Someone will.


Win or lose, Justify will at least bring attention to our sport even if its only for 3 weeks. Bound to get some new customers out of that.

[Fightingirish51195]

Win or lose, Justify will at least bring attention to our sport even if its only for 3 weeks. Bound to get some new customers out of that.

Absolutely, I didn’t want justify to win today, but atleast the Belmont is a lot more exciting now

[SharpCat]

Smith said post race the horse was tiring. Baffert said he would only run in the Belmont if the preparation goes well.

Read the tea leaves here....

Mike said it was a combination of Justify getting a little tired and waiting on horses. Mike said he thinks Justify could improve off this effort.

I think any trainer would say what Baffert said.

[clicknow]

Jeez, Justify JUST WON the Preakness and already w/in 2 seconds somebody has the snatch "the treat" right outs of his mouth. :D

(My dog wouldn't like that if you did that to him. :lol: He's a gentle Lab, but he might bite you for that)

[dilanesp]

Mike said it was a combination of Justify getting a little tired and waiting on horses. Mike said he thinks Justify could improve off this effort.

I think any trainer would say what Baffert said.

Statements against interest are more believable.

Smith's admission that the horse was tired was the honest part of the statement.

[dilanesp]

Jeez, Justify JUST WON the Preakness and already w/in 2 seconds somebody has the snatch "the treat" right outs of his mouth. :D

(My dog wouldn't like that if you did that to him. :lol: He's a gentle Lab, but he might bite you for that)

This is a handicapping board.

[clicknow]

I don’t think he’s got the foundation to win the grueling test that is the Belmont.

I'll agree with this.

I wonder if Solomini will go in the Belmont? That one seems like he could run all day if he could get his act together, but he would probably have to run in a vacuum.

[BCOURTNEY]

I'm sure some people who bet Good Magic will complain but I'm glad Ortiz tested Justify, it made the race exciting. It was the only chance he had to beat him because no one else could run with Justify early.

Agreed, did Good Magic win it for the others? This a legitimate question before the touting starts.. Final times say we have a nice field for the Belmont regardless..

[RunForTheRoses]

This is a handicapping board.


I agree but it was GD goop and he was outside the whole time (what is that on TG) against a very good horse. IF he can rest enough in 3 weeks he can do it. #BetterthanParoah

[metro]

Smith said post race the horse was tiring. Baffert said he would only run in the Belmont if the preparation goes well.

Read the tea leaves here....

imo track seemed more tiring for Preakness than the other races on the card, (maybe something to do with the hour between races). Pace slower than Sir Barton yet closers still figured prominently, Lone Sailor made up something like 8 lengths on Justify from KYD to today??

[clicknow]

I would like to see a race where he can set the pace rather than dueling.

Horse who wins KY Derby has target on back, Lukas threatened to send, so did Brown.

I give credit to GM for "being able to do it". Wasn't sure his strategy "run it like a match race" was a good strategy on Brown's part

[SharpCat]

Horse who wins KY Derby has target on back, Lukas threatened to send, so did Brown.

I give credit to GM for "being able to do it". Wasn't sure his strategy "run it like a match race" was a good strategy on Brown's part


Bad strategy in my opinion. I think the better option would have been to let Justify clear and then engage him on the outside.

[dilanesp]

imo track seemed more tiring for Preakness than the other races on the card, (maybe something to do with the hour between races). Pace slower than Sir Barton yet closers still figured prominently, Lone Sailor made up something like 8 lengths on Justify from KYD to today??

It's not just LS. 4 horses very close to Justify. That is very meaningful.

[Fightingirish51195]

Bad strategy in my opinion. I think the better option would have been to let Justify clear and then engage him on the outside.

If they did that, not sure anyone would’ve touched him. Why did justify tire at the end? Is he just tiring through the triple crown process? Or was it the battle he was engaged in.

[dilanesp]

Bad strategy in my opinion. I think the better option would have been to let Justify clear and then engage him on the outside.

You probably thought Desormeaux should have gone wide with Exaggerator on the off track 3 years ago....

[SharpCat]

You probably thought Desormeaux should have gone wide with Exaggerator on the off track 3 years ago....

Not sure about 3 years ago but today I would much rather be on the outside in a match race scenario.

[SecretAgentMan]

Smith said post race the horse was tiring. Baffert said he would only run in the Belmont if the preparation goes well.

Read the tea leaves here....





The horse will let Baffert know.......3 weeks to rest. Let's see if his left hoof has any problems.......its gonna be interesting g the next 3 weeks.

[dilanesp]

Not sure about 3 years ago but today I would much rather be on the outside in a match race scenario.

And lose more ground?

If you want to lay off a bit and relax, sure, being outside keeps you in the clear.

But you do lose ground. And if the plan is to get into a speed duel, the inside horse has the advantage.

[metro]

It's not just LS. 4 horses very close to Justify. That is very meaningful.

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.

[Spalding No!]

I agree but it was GD goop and he was outside the whole time (what is that on TG) against a very good horse. IF he can rest enough in 3 weeks he can do it. #BetterthanParoah
Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.

[Fightingirish51195]

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.

Yeah I don’t agree. They all had to deal with the fog and the sea of goo. The Belmont is the equalizer

[PaceAdvantage]

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

[Fightingirish51195]

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

Yes. I thought the horse was visibly tired. Really impressed that he hung on though. He’s a great horse no doubt reguardless of what happens in the future. He’s a tank

[SecretAgentMan]

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...




Yeah, he was breathing hard, but didn't he beat out everyone on the gallop out? Or did I see wrong?

[Blenheim]

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.




No doubt.


It'll be interesting to see what the figures tell us about this race . . . gotta run him in the Belmont, too much at stake not to, tired or not. He showed some true grit today. I'd like to see him go onto the Belmont and win that one too.


Congrats to Baffert and the connections here, nice win!

[RunForTheRoses]

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.


Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

[porchy44]

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.

I will also add "WOW" what a speed bias today.

[dilanesp]

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.

[Spalding No!]

Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.
A strict blind adherence to a "curse" is surely foolish, but at the same time there are plausible physical reasons (as you suggested in another thread) why such a "curse" exists.

As far as I can tell, Curlin--and now Justify--was an exception to the rule.

That's not to say that an unraced 2yo can never win a Classic (that's already been disproven), but simply that horses exposed to 2yo racing have a better chance of winning a Classic than horses that do not.

It seems like a useful angle to consider in these types of races. However, if you are foregoing other factors like the relative quality of the rest of the crop (or at least the fields that are lining up against these horses) you could be in for a headache.

Certainly the paltry division that saw the relatively inexperienced Big Brown streak to the top of the heap was a major factor in his ascendancy, while eventually it was his physical issues (that hindered his 2yo progression) that snatched the mantle of greatness from his shoulders.

That's why you're example of Curlin is exceptional. That appeared to be a very formidable crop he toiled against. And he had no problem dispatching the best older horse (Lawyer Ron) that season, either.

[dilanesp]

A strict blind adherence to a "curse" is surely foolish, but at the same time there are plausible physical reasons (as you suggested in another thread) why such a "curse" exists.

As far as I can tell, Curlin--and now Justify--was an exception to the rule.

That's not to say that an unraced 2yo can never win a Classic (that's already been disproven), but simply that horses exposed to 2yo racing have a better chance of winning a Classic than horses that do not.

It seems like a useful angle to consider in these types of races. However, if you are foregoing other factors like the relative quality of the rest of the crop (or at least the fields that are lining up against these horses) you could be in for a headache.

Certainly the paltry division that saw the relatively inexperienced Big Brown streak to the top of the heap was a major factor in his ascendancy, while eventually it was his physical issues (that hindered his 2yo progression) that snatched the mantle of greatness from his shoulders.

That's why you're example of Curlin is exceptional. That appeared to be a very formidable crop he toiled against. And he had no problem dispatching the best older horse (Lawyer Ron) that season, either.

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races? It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.

[RunForTheRoses]

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.


Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Oy, please lecture us about small sample size again, on second thought never mind I'd rather schedule a root canal. I was NOT bringing up the curse fully but broken record that you are whateva, was just saying to win the triple crown without a longer racing period, that is justify has not had a rest this year...I did not attack your pet peeve whacked out obsession...damn.

[dilanesp]

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Oy, please lecture us about small sample size again, on second thought never mind I'd rather schedule a root canal. I was NOT bringing up the curse fully but broken record that you are whateva, was just saying to win the triple crown without a longer racing period, that is justify has not had a rest this year...I did not attack your pet peeve whacked out obsession...damn.

You said "probably the Apollo jinx"

[Fightingirish51195]

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races? It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.

It gets the horses experience/education. I always look at how much a horse has raced reguardless of age, especially in stakes races

[Spalding No!]

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.
Not sure what this is saying. I wasn't commenting on Justify's Triple Crown prospects. In fact, I said he was an exception to the rule, so at this point I have no problem with someone suggesting he can win the Belmont.

But I wouldn't lambast anyone who docked him a point or two in their handicapping of the Kentucky Derby because he failed to start at 2. Some of those people likely still backed him because they couldn't land on anything else in the race. Justify certainly had a lot of other things going for him for that trace.

Nevertheless, Alysheba was defeated by Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, and Gulch. All well established 2yos.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.
Didn't say it was magical. But there certainly is a lot of money in it, and for a trainer to sit on a talented horse usually means one thing--the horse is has physical issues precluding training and racing.

Actually, if you want to bring magic into it, it's like being behind the eight ball...

You're going to bet an unraced 2yo in the Kentucky Derby from now on?

All signs still point to "No"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3raKrkl3D4

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races?
I guess if said 3yo claiming race (this of course ignores that a significant portion of the claiming population has chronic physical issues) is carded in May at a long distance none of the participants are likely to ever test again it would be an important factor.

It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.
It is precisely that when you consider the position on the calendar, the distances involved, the preparation (and points) necessary to participate, and the spacing of those 3 races.

If they augmented the Triple Crown to begin on say July 1st, do you think we'd see more unraced 2yos both participating and winning the 3 classics?

I think so.

[Burls]

I know he sucked in the Derby but I'll be looking at Hofburg very closely if he's in the Belmont. The field will be smaller and he got to sit out the Peakness, so if he's got anything, the Belmont will be Hofburg's best chance to show it.

[GMB@BP]

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

[GMB@BP]

I know he sucked in the Derby but I'll be looking at Hofburg very closely if he's in the Belmont. The field will be smaller and he got to sit out the Peakness, so if he's got anything, the Belmont will be Hofburg's best chance to show it.

Hofburg will be second choice at 7/2...did you see the gallop out, he beat justify by 10!

[menifee]

He was exhausted after the race. So many reasons to bet against this horse next time out in Belmont.


1. Lack of foundation
2. Number of tough races this horse has run in past two months starting with SA Derby.
3. I may be in the minority on this, but I don’t think this horse wants any part of these distances. I think he has so much talent and natural cruising speed that compensates, but in his last three races, I’m not seeing a horse who is really finishing.

[Fightingirish51195]

He was exhausted after the race. So many reasons to bet against this horse next time out in Belmont.


1. Lack of foundation
2. Number of tough races this horse has run in past two months starting with SA Derby.
3. I may be in the minority on this, but I don’t think this horse wants any part of these distances. I think he has so much talent and natural cruising speed that compensates, but in his last three races, I’m not seeing a horse who is really finishing.

I agree with your first 2 points for sure. He may not want the mile and a half. But I can’t say he wants no part of the last 2 distances he ran. He won both races.

[dilanesp]

Not sure what this is saying. I wasn't commenting on Justify's Triple Crown prospects. In fact, I said he was an exception to the rule, so at this point I have no problem with someone suggesting he can win the Belmont.

But I wouldn't lambast anyone who docked him a point or two in their handicapping of the Kentucky Derby because he failed to start at 2. Some of those people likely still backed him because they couldn't land on anything else in the race. Justify certainly had a lot of other things going for him for that trace.

Nevertheless, Alysheba was defeated by Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, and Gulch. All well established 2yos.


Didn't say it was magical. But there certainly is a lot of money in it, and for a trainer to sit on a talented horse usually means one thing--the horse is has physical issues precluding training and racing.

Actually, if you want to bring magic into it, it's like being behind the eight ball...

You're going to bet an unraced 2yo in the Kentucky Derby from now on?

All signs still point to "No"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3raKrkl3D4


I guess if said 3yo claiming race (this of course ignores that a significant portion of the claiming population has chronic physical issues) is carded in May at a long distance none of the participants are likely to ever test again it would be an important factor.


It is precisely that when you consider the position on the calendar, the distances involved, the preparation (and points) necessary to participate, and the spacing of those 3 races.

If they augmented the Triple Crown to begin on say July 1st, do you think we'd see more unraced 2yos both participating and winning the 3 classics?

I think so.

I have a different perspective: if 3 different races were the 3 most important races in the sport, a lot of handicappers would posit special esoteric theories for those races rather than just handicapping them with established methods.

[clicknow]

Yes. I thought the horse was visibly tired. Really impressed that he hung on though. He’s a great horse no doubt reguardless of what happens in the future. He’s a tank

he looked pretty peppy on his way back to the barn:

https://twitter.com/DRFRusso/status/997992131821211648

[clicknow]

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period.

I think there is a phrase for that, the word lemon is in the phrase.

[Fightingirish51195]

I heard Lukas has already said Bravazo will run in the Belmont. Love it. He can run all day

[clicknow]

I heard Lukas has already said Bravazo will run in the Belmont. Love it. He can run all day

Oxbow 2.0. Same sire, as well as same broodmare sire.

OXBOW b. C, 2010 {26} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD = 0.67
BRAVAZO dkb/br. C, 2015{A10} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD= 0.67

Sort of surprised more people didn't use him knowing that.

So if he runs 2nd in the BEL it will be freaky. :)

[Blenheim]

He has proven he is the class hoss' w/the best trainer and jockey.



If he runs out front at a moderate pace in the Belmont, even w/company, he should win. They gotta beat this guy and thus far, none of the other horses match up. The only thing that beats this horse is pace.

[papillon]

If they did that, not sure anyone would’ve touched him. Why did justify tire at the end? Is he just tiring through the triple crown process? Or was it the battle he was engaged in.

Ortiz said that he ran along with Justify because the pace was not very fast. His words not mine. He said he tried to take back but the pace was too slow. It didn't sound like a duel from his perspective.

[GMB@BP]

Ortiz said that he ran along with Justify because the pace was not very fast. His words not mine. He said he tried to take back but the pace was too slow. It didn't sound like a duel from his perspective.

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

[Fightingirish51195]

Oxbow 2.0. Same sire, as well as same broodmare sire.

OXBOW b. C, 2010 {26} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD = 0.67
BRAVAZO dkb/br. C, 2015{A10} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD= 0.67

Sort of surprised more people didn't use him knowing that.

So if he runs 2nd in the BEL it will be freaky. :)

I’m also suprised more people didn’t bet him simply based on the derby that he ran considering most preakness winners come from that race. He ran a phenomenal derby. And he’s double bred for wet. I don’t know what happened because of the fog but for some reason he lost ground. I know I sound like a broken record but I love this horse. I love Lukas.

[Spalding No!]

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

[Fightingirish51195]

Smarty jones>justify

Even he was defeated in the Belmont. This. Race. Is. The. Equalizer. It his so hard to win after winning the other two

[Tom]

Win or lose, Justify will at least bring attention to our sport even if its only for 3 weeks. Bound to get some new customers out of that.

Yes, I am sure we will! :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

Smarty jones>justifyI wouldn't be too sure of that...

[GMB@BP]

Just to correct, I said 5th in 110 days, it will be the 6th race.

These trainers who dont run their horses, bunch of crybabies.

[GMB@BP]

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

your like a database of horse history

[Bill Cullen]

"i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day?"

I don't think there is a person on earth who could say unequivocally, at this point in time just a few hours after winning the Preakness, there is a "big time bet against [Justify] on Belmont day."

The question is prematurely speculative and would at this chronological juncture only gain traction in a bar where "last call" has been delayed by virtue of a bar owner trying to profit from a lot of guys hitting on just a few fillies.

[Spalding No!]

your like a database of horse history
Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

[GMB@BP]

Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

still the ability to remember the horses and find the info, its appreciated!

[Fightingirish51195]

I was always taught your greatest assets as a handicapper is your memory

[GMB@BP]

I was always taught your greatest assets as a handicapper is your memory

I have had to work pretty good to forget my beats, its an art.

[SecretAgentMan]

Smarty jones>justify

Even he was defeated in the Belmont. This. Race. Is. The. Equalizer. It his so hard to win after winning the other two



Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.

[metro]

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

Great work! (love seeing the reference to Farma Way, a great hidden turf sire play)

Would add in American Pharoah who in the span of 84 days won the Rebel, Ark Derby, KY Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

[Nitro]

I’ll jump in with a little red board fun bet that I made today with Justify/All/All for a very lucky Triple return. With the conditions and small field today I personally felt that Justify was a lock if everything went without any issues. I really didn’t anticipate it being that close at the wire.

But I personally agree with anyone who throws Justify out of even the Top 2 winning positions in the Belmont. He’s been exposed now as a tired animal, and without having the proper foundation it’s very doubtful he’ll be able to perform at its best on big sandy. You may disagree with the following but:
Had the Preakness been 1 & ¼ miles he loses. (Bravazzo probably wins)
Had the Derby been 1 & ½ miles he loses. (Audible probably wins)

I’ll take my chances in the Belmont (no matter what the track conditions are) and say unequivocally that Justify is a bet against. That is of course only if the field has more than 5 entries. :rolleyes:

[clicknow]

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

The average lifespan for a Thoroughbred is 25-28-30.

Afleet Alex done by Spring at 3 years old
Smarty Jones done by Spring at 3 years old
Thunder Gulch done by Fall at 3 years old
American Pharoah done by Fall at 3 years old
Formal Gold done by Fall at 4 years old
Silverbulletday done by Spring at 4 years old
Pharma Way done by Fall at 4 years old
Arrogate done by Fall at 4 years old
Curlin done by Fall at 4 years old
Rachel Alexandra done by Fall at 4 years old
Awesome Gain done by Fall at 4 years old

Most of these raced 2 years total. Very few who are raced like this are still on the track at 5. In your list there were about 4?

That means they must be cared for, 24/7, standing around for about 22-27 years on average if they are not getting breeding fees.....

Everyone keeps saying the breeders are breeding too many horses, ,but it seems like many of our TBs who are over-raced don't have very long careers.

I talk to people who don't even remember horses who ran their hearts out in the KY Derby from just a few years ago, if they didn't run ITM.

[papillon]

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

He didn't sound evasive, unlike Smith, who was barely intelligible, he sounded sincere. I guess for me, I have to put more weight on the perspective of the participant, not the observer. He could feel his horse under him and Justify beside him, CJ couldn't.

As an aside, Smith's comments fit better as an excuse as to why Justify lunged into Good Magic at the top of the stretch, rather than as an answer to the question asked. All that stuff about the track being too narrow, wtf?

[GMB@BP]

He didn't sound evasive, unlike Smith, who was barely intelligible, he sounded sincere. I guess for me, I have to put more weight on the perspective of the participant, not the observer. He could feel his horse under him and Justify beside him, CJ couldn't.

As an aside, Smith's comments fit better as an excuse as to why Justify lunged into Good Magic at the top of the stretch, rather than as an answer to the question asked. All that stuff about the track being too narrow, wtf?

once piece of advice, dont listen to riders..... period.

[Spalding No!]

Would add in American Pharoah who in the span of 84 days won the Rebel, Ark Derby, KY Derby, Preakness and Belmont.
Yeah, that was a glaring omission to say the least, especially since he fit the full criteria. Thanks.

There's got to be many more. Maybe Cigar, Summer Squall, Kotashaan, etc.

[Spalding No!]

Everyone keeps saying the breeders are breeding too many horses, ,but it seems like many of our TBs who are over-raced don't have very long careers.
And there are many others who are under-raced and don't have very long careers, either. Who knows what's happening behind the scenes with those types?

But, yes, these sorts of highly concentrated campaigns at the top level ultimately undo the horse in one way or another. Most of the above were felled by injury or went off form badly relative to their respective peaks.

I talk to people who don't even remember horses who ran their hearts out in the KY Derby from just a few years ago, if they didn't run ITM.
Even worse is some of the subsequent careers of those Derby also-rans. A lot horses that don't make the grade for the breeding shed, simply keep running. They have long careers...but in a bad way for the most part.

[jocko699]

once piece of advice, dont listen to riders..... period.

Exactly!!!!!

[cj]

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

[clicknow]

Didn't Mubtaahij have a somewhat arduous racing schedule when he came over for the derby? I think he ran 2 back to back races that were about Preakness length, in the same month?

Maybe I'm thinking of another horse, too tired to look it up.

[GMB@BP]

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

This is 6 though!!!

[Rex Phinney]

Justify is not going to have to work early on in the Belmont as he did today.

Of course Bravaso and others looked great closing but that’s only because they had Good Magic to soften Justify up. I don’t think there is anyone else in this crop who can push him that hard that long. I don’t think Good Magic will run in the Belmont, this poses a problem if you’re trying to beat Justify.

The way the Belmont is run these days is slow to start and even slower to finish. The guts that Justify showed today tells me betting against him could be a mistake. Those conditions today where awful, and it’s the second time in 14 days he’s dealt with it and he hasn’t blinked yet.

[jocko699]

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

84 days?

[depalma113]

I didn't get to play this weekend because my father passed away. Way too many important family issues to deal with to worry about betting a horse race. I did get to watch it though. Good race.

I did post somewhere last week that I thought it was a race between Justify and Good Magic with Bravazo as the only horse with a chance to pull the upset. So I don't get any money this week, but I'm happy my handicapping was spot on and I needed a little happy right now.

[JustRalph]

Condolences.......

[Thomas Roulston]

Instilled Regard all the way in the Belmont - provided that it's a dry track.

[Tom]

Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

Thanks for posting it - good memories.
But you just depressed the hell out me when i look at the PPs today! :(

[sammy the sage]

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???

[sammy the sage]

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

I thought that was Mike smith breathing...on the outrider:pound:

[burnsy]

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???


Maybe not, he ran his eyeballs out yesterday. That was a gutsy performance, the second one in a row but this was even harder. The three week turn around and increased distance vs. fresh horses is going to be the true "TEST".

If this horse pulls it off, he's a great horse and Baffert should be president. That was the kind of race most would have lost. The recovery is everything now.

[AskinHaskin]

Horses that won both Derby and Preakness only since 2000



All trainers who have on multiple occasions won both (KY) Derby and Preakness with the same horse:


Bob Baffert - 5 times

Ben Jones - 2 times

Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons - 2 times

Max Hirsch - 2 times

Henry Forrest - 2 times



(Number of individuals during the past 72 years who did so and immediately realized it: one)

A name who probably should be in this club, but isn't, is H.A. "Jimmy" Jones.

[Spalding No!]

Instilled Regard all the way in the Belmont - provided that it's a dry track.

Instilled Regard has been taken out of training per the DRF.

[Fager Fan]

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

I wouldn't ever consider running in the 2 path as going wide.

It's also advantageous going against one other horse to be outside. Horses don't prefer being hemmed in between the rail and another horse.

[classhandicapper]

The more I think about Justify's performance in the Preakness the more it reminds me of American Pharoah's Travers.

Both got pressured by another very good horse almost all the way and it took something out of them late.

IMO, the difference is that AP's Travers was at 10F on a somewhat tiring track at Saratoga that made his duel more problematical. AP was on the rail path on the turn and into the stretch (the inferior path that day). AP's final time was superior to Justify's by several lengths. PIM was speed favoring yesterday and that helped Justify hang on in slower time.

I think Justify is a very very good horse, but the Derby and Preakness did nothing to alleviate my fears about him getting 12 furlongs. In both instances he was dragged into the heated action up front. He was good enough to overcome it both times, but 12F is a different ball game.

Bravazo has been more of a 2nd or 3rd string horse in this crop and he almost got him at 9.5 furlongs. IMO, Justify is definitely vulnerable against fresher and better horses going 12 furlongs if he takes any pressure at all. He's almost certain to be a huge underlay.

[Fager Fan]

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

If you believe that fig is accurate. I find it questionable.

[Fager Fan]

Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.

Being a specimen is only important in beauty contests.

At this point, Smarty Jones was the better racehorse.

[Blenheim]

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.




In a span of 43 days, Calumet’s Whirlaway raced in the Bluegrass, Derby Trial, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, an Allowance race and the Belmont Stakes. In between the Bluegrass and the Derby Trial, he worked 10 fl in 2:07.2.5! Back then, the Preakness ran one week later. Today’s horse would lose by default because they couldn’t keep up w/the schedule. Horse ran 16 times as a two-year-old.

Different time, different type . . .

[classhandicapper]

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???

I'm not so sure it's going to a rabbit so much as it's going to take several horses to hound him and make a bid at different stages of the race.

If you watch AP's Belmont, he was loose the whole way, but Materiality took a crack at him, then Mubtaajij took a crack at him, and then Frosted took a crack at him. Each time one of those horses tried to come to him, he was fast enough and had enough stamina to repulse it.

It will take something like that or what they did to Smarty Jones and I think this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.

[Blenheim]

I'm not so sure it's going to a rabbit so much as it's going to take several horses to hound him and make a bid at different stages of the race.

If you watch AP's Belmont, he was loose the whole way, but Materiality took a crack at him, them Mubtaajij took a crack at him, and then Frosted took a crack at him. Each time one of those horses tried to come to him, he repulsed it.

It will take something like that or what they did to Smarty Jones and I think this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.


There are no legitimate 12 fl horses nor legit 10 fl horses; one of the reasons why he wasn't passed in the Kentucky and the Preakness - none of the horses are bred to go that long.

If he gets out front in the Belmont w/a moderate pace, he has a shot at it.

[thaskalos]

It's one thing to say that an undefeated horse vying for the last leg of the Triple Crown isn't worth a bet because of its expected underlaid price...but to say that the horse will get DEFEATED in the Belmont, without knowing the level of competition awaiting in the wings, is a little premature, IMO. Yes, Justify was exhausted after the Preakness...but I've seen undefeated horses follow up narrow victories, where they were "almost beaten"...with impressive triumphs, where they left no doubt about their superiority within the group.

I am willing to give Justify his well-deserved benefit of the doubt...and my mind about his eventual defeat will be made up at a later date, when a little more is known about his post-race condition...and his upcoming competition.

[depalma113]

Only 4 horses lined up to face him so far.

Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy.

If that's the field, he isn't losing unless he falls down.

[GMB@BP]

If you believe that fig is accurate. I find it questionable.

I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.

[Robert Fischer]

If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.

[Grits]

Only 4 horses lined up to face him so far.

Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy.

If that's the field, he isn't losing unless he falls down.

This is early possibles.... I can't imagine only 4 lining up to face Justify.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Justify_to_face_strong_prospective_field_in_Belmon t_Stakes_2018_123#

[Vinnie]

Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.

Very true. My sentiments mirror yours sir. Is he up against it, YES!! Any horse with such a phenomenal opportunity finding himself in the same spot in a similar circumstance is, however, it would be Awesome to see him get it done in another three weeks... GO JUSTIFY!! :)

[Vinnie]

I didn't get to play this weekend because my father passed away. Way too many important family issues to deal with to worry about betting a horse race. I did get to watch it though. Good race.

I did post somewhere last week that I thought it was a race between Justify and Good Magic with Bravazo as the only horse with a chance to pull the upset. So I don't get any money this week, but I'm happy my handicapping was spot on and I needed a little happy right now.

Very sorry to hear of the recent loss of your father. Your family is in my prayers depalma113. Nothing but excellent karma and good tidings to you and your family moving forward sir. :)

[dilanesp]

In a span of 43 days, Calumet’s Whirlaway raced in the Bluegrass, Derby Trial, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, an Allowance race and the Belmont Stakes. In between the Bluegrass and the Derby Trial, he worked 10 fl in 2:07.2.5! Back then, the Preakness ran one week later. Today’s horse would lose by default because they couldn’t keep up w/the schedule. Horse ran 16 times as a two-year-old.

Different time, different type . . .

I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.

[Secondbest]

If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.

I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.

[MadVindication]

Wonder what happened to Runaway Ghost and his injury (shin hairline fracture). I would like to see him run against Justify and Bravazo. The Awesome Again - Ghostzapper horses. But doesn't seem like the kind of race to run right after an injury at all. Maybe some day. But after this I assume Justify will be out to stud and maybe surpassing Ghostzapper's sire fee record :coffee: While the syndicate looks for their next K derby contender.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.

If something goes amiss, the pressure on Baffert to run him will be enormous, and it'll be tough to overcome the Triple Crown fever. Since there are no longer any huge bonuses for winning the TC, one can hope that it will allow the horsemen to be a bit more sensible and do what's best for their horse.

We've seen many get caught up in Derby fever, and the result is there are way too horses running each year over their heads - and often to the detriment of their career. For a horse to be sound enough to make a start in all three Triple Crown races makes a case for their soundness, which again can be an enticement to run when the horse is indicating a Belmont may not be best for them.

As for who to toss, I'll be leaning to toss Bravazo, especially if the track is fast. I'm not a big fan of Lukas to begin with, and lost a lot of respect for him when he ran Winning Colors in the Belmont, with nothing to prove, no bonus on the line, and very minimal breeding concerns since she was a filly. Fortunately, she was able to bounce back and run big in the Breeders Cup, but that may have been in spite of him. "The Coach" admits he likes the big stage, and now we have a rare circumstance where a horse running over his head turns out to be competitive - putting the quality of the crop as being suspect rather than "way better than average", the opinion held by many going into the Derby.

Justify may offer no value in the Belmont, and he may have been tired and near the end of his form cycle - or not. Like Thask, I'll wait to see how the field shapes up, but there's no denying Justify's running style and his accomplishments so far make it tougher to see an upset.

[dilanesp]

The bonus isn't the reason people run injured horses for the TC. Majestic Prince ran injured with no bonus.

[Fager Fan]

Justify is not going to have to work early on in the Belmont as he did today.

Of course Bravaso and others looked great closing but that’s only because they had Good Magic to soften Justify up. I don’t think there is anyone else in this crop who can push him that hard that long. I don’t think Good Magic will run in the Belmont, this poses a problem if you’re trying to beat Justify.

The way the Belmont is run these days is slow to start and even slower to finish. The guts that Justify showed today tells me betting against him could be a mistake. Those conditions today where awful, and it’s the second time in 14 days he’s dealt with it and he hasn’t blinked yet.

They're not awful conditions for a horse who likes it, which Justify clearly does.

[Fager Fan]

I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.

And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.

[Fager Fan]

I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.

That's not true. Horses have a harder time staying together now.

[GMB@BP]

And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.

I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures in recent years, especially at the top end of races, I think they are often too low for the Graded horses.

I trust the figures CJ has made for well over a decade.

[jocko699]

If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.

Robert,

Spot on post!!!!

[Fager Fan]

I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures in recent years, especially at the top end of races, I think they are often too low for the Graded horses.

I trust the figures CJ has made for well over a decade.

To each their own. But the blanket finish also doesn't seem to back up the number.

[cj]

And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.

If my figures were always in line with Beyer I would have never bothered to make my own. Why would I?

I think the biggest difference I've seen between us is that I'm more likely to trust that young, lightly raced horses can improve a lot from race to race where Beyer is more conservative in that regard.

I can think of four really high profile horses where I had the horses faster than Beyer, i.e. out of line as you say. American Pharoah was one, Gun Runner another, California Chrome, and now Justify. The first three worked out really well for me. I guess Bolt d'Oro was another. That one, while Bolt d'Oro has been a bit of a disappointment I guess, has held up very well from a figure perspective.

I also have an advantage of using pace to explain the difference between finishers in races. I'm not locked in by margin at the finish. It is set and doesn't require judgement where sometimes I break races out and other times I don't.

Here is an example:

I project Horse A to run 100 and Horse B to run 90 and they finish a length apart. On final time alone, Horse A is going to get somewhere between 100 and 92 and Horse B between 98 and 90. But the gap will always be one length.

By using pace, I might know Horse A run a final time of 92 but gets extra credit for pace, so upgraded to a 100, while Horse B ran his usual 90 and had a great pace set up. So I have a variant that lines up perfectly for both horses while final time only numbers have to find a way to split the difference. This kind of thing happens literally many times every single day.

[cj]

I also want to add that the last race on Preakness day had a timer malfunction and no times were given. When I originally looked at the card, I thought it was possible the track sped up for the Preakness by about four points from previous races. With nothing else to go on I probably would have went with that but it was an iffy decision at best.

So, I downloaded the 14th race and timed it from video. It was tough to see but since I have a lot of experience with this stuff and I know exactly where Pimlico race timing starts it wasn't too hard. The time of the 14th told me the race track hadn't really sped up at all. I guess it is possible the track sped up then slowed down again, but that isn't really the kind of hair you want to be splitting when making speed figures. If you do that too often you aren't making speed figures at all, you're making a type of class rating.

How many other figure makers do you think bothered to time the last race and use it as part of the decision process? And personally, I think it was vital information to have in light of all the other data.

[classhandicapper]

There are no legitimate 12 fl horses nor legit 10 fl horses; one of the reasons why he wasn't passed in the Kentucky and the Preakness - none of the horses are bred to go that long.

If he gets out front in the Belmont w/a moderate pace, he has a shot at it.

That may be the case, but there will be horses that are better than Bravazo and Tenfold coming at him Belmont day. They will be fresh and ready while he'll be coming off two tough races in a row and will be going into his 6th race of the year without a freshening.

I guess Justify has never looked like a 12F horse to me. In 3 of his 5 races he got drawn into fast paces. In another he set solid fractions on a slow track while loose. In only one start did he actually relax off the fast pace. To me, that's not the profile of a 12 furlong horse. I'd prefer a more even paced speed or near the front type that has shown me he won't get drawn into fast paces and slow down late. Some of it may have been related to track conditions, but we don't know that.

Maybe the field will have no speed at all and Smith will have no trouble backing him down to 48 113. We'll see.

However

If the Preakness is an indication he's tailing off even slightly he's in trouble.

If he's pressured (we'll see who else is entered) imo he's in trouble.

That's not what I want from a horse that's going to be 2/5.

[Parkview_Pirate]

The bonus isn't the reason people run injured horses for the TC. Majestic Prince ran injured with no bonus.

I hardly stated the bonus was the ONLY reason potentially injured horses run for the TC. I simply stated that now that it no longer exists, that's one less reason for connections to get greedy.

And greed is a factor. Refer to Spend A Buck or Gato Del Sol who "cheapened the image" of the TC, and skipped out of the pursuit for greener pastures. Perhaps their connections thought the dough was in the purses, and less so in the breeding shed (which was true for Gato Del Sol, but not so much for Spend a Buck).

Speaking of bonuses, another one is now in the works:

https://www.app.com/story/sports/horses/2018/05/16/nj-sports-betting-triple-crown-bonus-tied-new-future-bet/614970002/

Though Monmouth Park's $5 million bonus program hasn't been formalized, Justify would also need to win the Haskell Invitational on July 29, the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 25, and the Breeders Cup Classic on Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs. The horse's owners would also need to place a winning 2019 Super Bowl bet at Monmouth the day of the Haskell.

Having this type of arrangement seems to be pure lunacy, where the connections are tempted to overreach with a three-year old, and also apply their (completely unrelated) NFL handicapping skills.

[dilanesp]

I also want to add that the last race on Preakness day had a timer malfunction and no times were given. When I originally looked at the card, I thought it was possible the track sped up for the Preakness by about four points from previous races. With nothing else to go on I probably would have went with that but it was an iffy decision at best.

So, I downloaded the 14th race and timed it from video. It was tough to see but since I have a lot of experience with this stuff and I know exactly where Pimlico race timing starts it wasn't too hard. The time of the 14th told me the race track hadn't really sped up at all. I guess it is possible the track sped up then slowed down again, but that isn't really the kind of hair you want to be splitting when making speed figures. If you do that too often you aren't making speed figures at all, you're making a type of class rating.

How many other figure makers do you think bothered to time the last race and use it as part of the decision process? And personally, I think it was vital information to have in light of all the other data.

Timer malfunction on Preakness day? I am shocked.

[dilanesp]

That's not true. Horses have a harder time staying together now.

The evidence of this comes almost exclusively from horsemen, who lie a lot.

[Fightingirish51195]

Belmont’s the type of track that even if justify doesn’t get pressure, the track size, and whether the superintendents have it deep that day, could be enough to beat the horse. Gotta see how the track is playing

[cj]

Timer malfunction on Preakness day? I am shocked.

Well, since you mentioned it, there were at least three. The Mitole 21.67 opening 1/4 was a joke. That simply isn't possible at Pimlico at 6f. I knew that instantly. They kept talking about it on NBC like it was real. Anyone that follows Pimlico at all knew it wasn't.

I also think the first race opening quarter was way too slow. And then there was the 14th. That one I think the timer person just couldn't see the gate and didn't turn the system on in time.

[cj]

Belmont’s the type of track that even if justify doesn’t get pressure, the track size, and whether the superintendents have it deep that day, could be enough to beat the horse. Gotta see how the track is playing

Belmont won't be near as deep as Santa Anita was, that is a virtual lock.

[classhandicapper]

Here is an example:

I project Horse A to run 100 and Horse B to run 90 and they finish a length apart. On final time alone, Horse A is going to get somewhere between 100 and 92 and Horse B between 98 and 90. But the gap will always be one length.

By using pace, I might know Horse A run a final time of 92 but gets extra credit for pace, so upgraded to a 100, while Horse B ran his usual 90 and had a great pace set up. So I have a variant that lines up perfectly for both horses while final time only numbers have to find a way to split the difference. This kind of thing happens literally many times every single day.

I've always found this kind of thing valuable.

A big part of figure making is interpreting the results accurately. If pace isn't part of the analysis, it's going to leave you more open to interpretation errors.

Not that fractions are the only way to analyze these things, but most people do rely heavily on fractions when they analyze the race flow. It's kind of shocking to me how often very smart people are mistaken about the pace because they looked at the raw fractions and don't have a grasp of what's fast/slow relative to each final time at a specific distance and track. You need good pace figures or you need a different approach.

[Grits]

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.

[Pensacola Pete]

The winner of the Belmont probably hasn't even been announced as a starter yet.

[Fightingirish51195]

Belmont won't be near as deep as Santa Anita was, that is a virtual lock.

Mile and a half

[dilanesp]

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.

He was great yesterday. If I were to nitpick, he missed the drama of the Preakness finish to crown Justify. But he was great.

[MadVindication]

The winner of the Belmont probably hasn't even been announced as a starter yet.

How do entries for that race work? Does it have to be by invite and/or entry fee?

[thaskalos]

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.

By the same logic...we shouldn't complain when we get a lousy meal in a restaurant...unless we could prove to the chef that we could cook the food better ourselves. :)

[Fager Fan]

If my figures were always in line with Beyer I would have never bothered to make my own. Why would I?

I think the biggest difference I've seen between us is that I'm more likely to trust that young, lightly raced horses can improve a lot from race to race where Beyer is more conservative in that regard.

I can think of four really high profile horses where I had the horses faster than Beyer, i.e. out of line as you say. American Pharoah was one, Gun Runner another, California Chrome, and now Justify. The first three worked out really well for me. I guess Bolt d'Oro was another. That one, while Bolt d'Oro has been a bit of a disappointment I guess, has held up very well from a figure perspective..

What does this have to do with anything? I've argued with you before about Timeform using "class" to make their figs, including you, and you assured me that you don't. The above sounds like using class to me, and boasting of spotting class.

We use all the figures. They usually back each other up. When they don't, we toss out the one that doesn't.

[outofthebox]

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.I thought both Colmus and Rodman did a fantastic job calling the race off the monitors. The weather and the crazy angles they had to work with were treacherous.

[Fager Fan]

The evidence of this comes almost exclusively from horsemen, who lie a lot.

That's silliness. One only has to see how easily horses are injured to know. How many years experience do you have knowing the details of dozens of horses? A lot of these "lying" horsemen have decades of it.

Buy a dozen horses then see the injuries yourself, and then tell those trainers they should've pushed harder instead on those tendons or bones that were about to blow.

[Grits]

I thought both Colmus and Rodman did a fantastic job calling the race off the monitors. The weather and the crazy angles they had to work with were treacherous.


I was amazed. Totally. I thought Larry was outstanding. I didn't hear Rodman, but it's good he nailed it, too. :ThmbUp: A drunk could've come on the track from the infield and no one would've seen him! (Or her!!)

[Spalding No!]

And greed is a factor. Refer to Spend A Buck or Gato Del Sol who "cheapened the image" of the TC, and skipped out of the pursuit for greener pastures. Perhaps their connections thought the dough was in the purses, and less so in the breeding shed (which was true for Gato Del Sol, but not so much for Spend a Buck).
The connections of Gato Del Sol skipped the Preakness because they thought his late running style and the slightly shorter distance of the race would compromise his chances. In fact, even before the Derby, the race they were targeting was the Belmont. They were probably shocked as anyone else that he got up at Churchill. He didn't run in between those two races.

[Spalding No!]

If I were to nitpick, he missed the drama of the Preakness finish to crown Justify.
I don't think that's nitpicking.

To call "Justify...he's unstoppable!" just as a horse of Bravazo's credentials practically inhales him in a matter of 3 or 4 strides is pure folly. Just more forced, prefabricated excitement that we've come to expect. At least he's using a more guttural tone when screaming at the wire. The high pitch (see the 2016 BC Distaff) was unbearable.

And..."not even the fog could stop him!"? What does that mean? Was Quip pulled up because he couldn't fight through the fog?

[dilanesp]

That's silliness. One only has to see how easily horses are injured to know. How many years experience do you have knowing the details of dozens of horses? A lot of these "lying" horsemen have decades of it.

Buy a dozen horses then see the injuries yourself, and then tell those trainers they should've pushed harder instead on those tendons or bones that were about to blow.

Horses got injured back in the day too.

If anything the causation may run the other way. Fewer starts lead to more injuries.

Claimers, where the economics are different, still run a lot.

[AndyC]

Statements against interest are more believable.

Smith's admission that the horse was tired was the honest part of the statement.

Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.

The biggest myth that I have found is the notion that an easy win is accomplished with little or no effort thus leaving a horse fresh for its next race.

[classhandicapper]

What does this have to do with anything? I've argued with you before about Timeform using "class" to make their figs, including you, and you assured me that you don't. The above sounds like using class to me, and boasting of spotting class.

We use all the figures. They usually back each other up. When they don't, we toss out the one that doesn't.

CJ can speak for himself, but given he had those horses as very fast and they then went on to great accomplishments, that strongly suggests he was correct when he claimed they were very fast right from the start.

[dilanesp]

Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.

The biggest myth that I have found is the notion that an easy win is accomplished with little or no effort thus leaving a horse fresh for its next race.

I expect him to be tired. I expect hin to still be tired in 3 weeks.

This isn't a personal attack on the horse. He will join some good company in failing to win the TC.

[thaskalos]

And..."not even the fog could stop him!"? What does that mean? Was Quip pulled up because he couldn't fight through the fog?

I agree...that was silliness. If Sherlock Holmes could thrive in the fog...why shouldn't Justify?

[AndyC]

I expect him to be tired. I expect hin to still be tired in 3 weeks.

This isn't a personal attack on the horse. He will join some good company in failing to win the TC.

I don't know what to expect, I just know that looking tired in race like the one yesterday isn't really an indicator of anything for the future.

[Fager Fan]

Horses got injured back in the day too.

If anything the causation may run the other way. Fewer starts lead to more injuries.

Claimers, where the economics are different, still run a lot.

They're often running with injected joints too that absolutely can cripple them in their post-racing life.

I know what I've seen with the same type of stock, trained by the same stick of trainers, and the decline in being able to keep the horses running. And you're dead wrong if you think sitting in the barn or being at a layup farm is what we want.

The one area where you may be right is that racing may be taking care of their horses better than before so stop when they could chance a few more runs. I can't complain about that though. The blue bloods used to take poorly conformed foals to the woods at the back of the farm and shoot them. Culling can be both beneficial and brutal.

[Fager Fan]

CJ can speak for himself, but given he had those horses as very fast and they then went on to great accomplishments, that strongly suggests he was correct when he claimed they were very fast right from the start.

I don't know how hard it is to spot those talents. Each effort stands on its own though, and talents don't always run to their best.

[classhandicapper]

Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.


I don't think he ran as well yesterday as he did in the Derby.

1. I think a reasonable case can be made that Pimlico was a bit speed favoring yesterday.

2. Justify and Good Magic went at it almost the whole way, but there's not much evidence they were going particularly fast. The fractions relative to the final time were not blistering and Bravazo was only between 1 1/2 - 3 lengths behind them early. He's not a brilliantly fast horse and he was the one coming at them late not some deep closer.

Given 1 and 2, it looks to me like the duel took something out of the top two given that Justify and Good Magic are better than horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor by more than that, but given the former was closest too them early, I don't think the race fell apart that much.

My best guess is that the race was not all that good.

Justify struggled to hold off a Grade 2 horse after a tough but not monumentally difficult trip relative to him and nothing suggests that Bravazo made some huge leap forward given the other horses in the proximity aren't very accomplished. Maybe Justify was several lengths the best, but I don't think it was his best effort.

[clicknow]

this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.

That would probably be all of 1-2 horses at most, depending on the field. Or maybe not even 1.....just an elite 10F-er type who can somehow make it 2 extra furlongs without falling down in the stretch, which isn't necessarily a true "12F horse".

[dilanesp]

That would probably be all of 1-2 horses at most, depending on the field. Or maybe not even 1.....just an elite 10F-er type who can somehow make it 2 extra furlongs without falling down in the stretch, which isn't necessarily a true "12F horse".

Was Summing a 12 furlong horse? Sarava? Da Tara? They all spoiled TC bids.

I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.

[Thomas Roulston]

Was Summing a 12 furlong horse? Sarava? Da Tara? They all spoiled TC bids.

I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.


Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.

[clicknow]

I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.


I guess there's no good reason why so few 12F races are carded in the U.S. then, since there is no magical skill, except to be "less tired".



Like I said, winning at 12F *once* does not a 12F horse make....so in the U.S. it's difficult because most horses will never be given an opportunity to do it a 2nd time.

[clicknow]

Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.

Then looking at the female side, there would also be more clues. Conduit mare profiles, etc.

It's funny how people with very tall children will understand that is because they got passed on a gene from someone earlier in the family history, that allowed them to qualify to be basketball players, ditto, to be short enough to be jockeys.

But if you bring up TB pedigree, so many will PSHAW! it.

(thank god they are in the parimutuel pool....The Belmont is my favorite race.)

[dilanesp]

Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.

The point was there was no reason to think those horses were going to go 1 1/2 miles better than their competitors and beat a horse trying for a TC.

[dilanesp]

I guess there's no good reason why so few 12F races are carded in the U.S. then, since there is no magical skill, except to be "less tired".



Like I said, winning at 12F *once* does not a 12F horse make....so in the U.S. it's difficult because most horses will never be given an opportunity to do it a 2nd time.

An industry focused on getting your money back quickly isn't going to have many 12 furlong races.

[LemonSoupKid]

Hofburg has the best pedigree for this race, if that in fact matters ...

[dilanesp]

Let's move the ball somewhat.

I am going to exclude the first two TC winners, because they raced on a different schedule. (Sir Barton's Belmont was 11 furlongs, and Gallant Fox's Preakness was before the Derby.)

Only three TC winners had a close call in the Preakness: Affirmed, Assault, and War Admiral. Affirmed and War Admiral had a single challenger who was a very good horse and they were way out in front of the rest of the field. Assault got a bad start, had to be used hard, and he and the runner up finished clear of the rest of the field.

I will use this video from ABC sports, which contains footage all the TC's except for American Pharoah, as the guide for this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFtK-UuKyRU

Omaha won the Preakness by 6 lengths over Firethorn.

War Admiral won the Preakness by a head over Pompoon, a very good horse. It was way back to the third horse.

Whirlaway made one of the greatest moves in the history of horse racing, moving in and out of horses and winning the Preakness by a distance over King Cole.

Count Fleet won the Preakness by 8 lengths over Blue Swords.

Assault got a bad start in the Preakness but won by a neck over Lord Boswell. They were well clear of the third place finisher.

Citation won the Preakness by 5 1/2 lengths.

Secretariat won the Preakness by 2 1/2 lengths over Sham, and it was a long way back to the third horse. Secretariat made a premature move in that race, and ran what was almost certainly the fastest Preakness up to that time (although exactly how fast he ran is forever shrouded in mystery).

Seattle Slew won the Preakness by a length and a half. His time, though, was the third fastest Preakness up to that time in history.

Affirmed won the Preakness by a neck over Alydar, a very good racehorse who also finished a head back in the Belmont. They were well clear of the third horse.

American Pharoah won the Preakness by seven lengths over Tale of Verve.

So if Justify wins the Belmont, he will have done so after winning the least impressive Preakness of any TC winner except perhaps Assault, in which he beat Bravazo, Tenfold, Good Magic, and Lone Sailor by pretty short margins.

I think the correct play is to be skeptical of TC attempts to begin with, but at the very least, I want to see a smashing victory in the Preakness, either in terms of winning margin, time, or horses beaten, before concluding a horse is going to win the TC. You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.

[cj]

I think the correct play is to be skeptical of TC attempts to begin with, but at the very least, I want to see a smashing victory in the Preakness, either in terms of winning margin, time, or horses beaten, before concluding a horse is going to win the TC. You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.

Talk about small sample sizes and/or randomness!

[Tom]

You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.

You are right.
I am all over someone who did not with the Preakness and earned a Beyer lower than 97.

[f2tornado]

Interesting info above. It’s easy to develop tunnel vision in this game for the favorite or against it. Justify wasn’t my first choice in the Derby but he fit enough of my angles to play on top with my other two selections. I used him almost exclusely on top in Preakness. Now several contenders fit my Belmont angles better than Justify. This time I will let him beat me in the win pool and hope he finishes out of the money. His BSF and Brisnet dropped, he’s got the hoof issue, he’s got 12 panels, and he’s got fresh competition that doesn’t need to be all that great to hit the wire first. Maybe Hofburg will be the next Tapit to get the job done. Maybe Blended Citizen with the Raise A Native sire line and Northrn Dancer dam sire line like many Belmont winners before the Tapit invasion. I didn’t hit Tonalist very hard several years back and regretted it for a long time. I’ll take a bigger swing this year.

[Hoops McCann]

Justify broke the Apollo "curse" and now he's trying to be the first horse to win the triple crown who didn't race as a two year old. can he do it? i'd like to see him do it but i don't like his chances. i see him coming up empty in the stretch.

[dilanesp]

Talk about small sample sizes and/or randomness!

I agree it is a small sample size on the TC. But there is a much larger sample size of "horses whose form cycle is tailing off trying to do something difficult". Iam applying a standard handicapping principle here, not something unique to the TC.

[cj]

I agree it is a small sample size on the TC. But there is a much larger sample size of "horses whose form cycle is tailing off trying to do something difficult". Iam applying a standard handicapping principle here, not something unique to the TC.

That is much different than the very specific criteria you were giving.

I'm not really sure where people are seeing this declining form anyway. Race dynamics were the reason the race got close last time IMO. Extended pressure from a very good horse will do that at the end. Remember Rachel Alexandra's Preakness? She was battling with eventual Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Big Drama.

Had Justify lost a nose on the wire to Bravazo, wouldn't everyone be saying he was the best horse in the race despite losing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD9AwA-N4EU

[dilanesp]

That is much different than the very specific criteria you were giving.

I'm not really sure where people are seeing this declining form anyway. Race dynamics were the reason the race got close last time IMO. Extended pressure from a very good horse will do that at the end. Remember Rachel Alexandra's Preakness? She was battling with eventual Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Big Drama.

Had Justify lost a nose on the wire to Bravazo, wouldn't everyone be saying he was the best horse in the race despite losing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD9AwA-N4EU

I probably rate Rachel Alexandra somewhat lower than you do (and I probably would have bet against her if she had run in the Belmont), but taking your point as it stands, it matters that the second place finisher there was the Kentucky Derby winner who had run a smashing race two weeks earlier.

In contrast, I give credit to Justify for surviving the speed duel. That counts for something and if you want to excuse him for that I don't argue with that.

But in terms of the final time / performance rating-- this was Justify with a bunched up field of mostly bums directly behind him. It looks to me like he ran a poor figure, and it looked to Randy Moss like he did too. And the Beyer looks right to me.

So I think you are comparing a horse who repeated her smashing performance in the Kentucky Oaks 15 days later and who then took time off and didn't come back in the Belmont to a horse who ran the worst race of his life, at best had an excuse (the pace duel), and even if we take the excuse at face value, he's likely to be tired three weeks later.

[classhandicapper]

I think the impact of pressure on Rachel and Justify depends the quality of the horses in the battle, how badly the loser of the battle did, how the other horses near the pace did, and who was coming at them late.

Rachel was pressured by Big Drama. He was a quality sprinter that was probably going too far, but he was very fast. He finished 5th beaten 5 1/2 lengths. Other horses near the pace also didn't fair very well. The 3rd, 4th and 5th horses early all finished up the track and a couple of them were pretty good. That included Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, and Take the Points. They all ran worse than expected. She was trying to hold off Mine That Bird who at the time was the Derby winner. He was probably not an especially strong Derby winner, but I'd say he was clearly better than Bravazo at the same point in their careers. MTB (2nd) came from 13th, Musket Mn (3rd) came from 8th, and Flying Private (4th) came from 10th. Bid Drama came out of the race to win next time.

Justify was pressured by the very high quality Good Magic. Good Magic finished 4th beaten a length and Bravazo (2nd) was the horse sitting a close 3rd right behind them all the way. Tenfold came from 6th.

I seems to me like Rachel probably faced the tougher pace/pressure scenario (given how those tracks were playing also) and held off the better horse.

My thinking is that Justify and Good Magic were the 2 best horses in the Preakess. Had they not "gone at it", imo they would have finished 1st and 2nd maybe 2-3 lengths ahead of Bravazo. So I think it was a good effort, but I don't think it was anything to write home about.

[dilanesp]

One other thing about Rachel Alexandra. Rachel's Beyer was 108, which makes her Preakness the second fastest of the past 11 years (only I'll Have Another's was faster). In other words, she ran good enough to beat American Pharoah on Preakness day.

[cj]

I probably rate Rachel Alexandra somewhat lower than you do (and I probably would have bet against her if she had run in the Belmont), but taking your point as it stands, it matters that the second place finisher there was the Kentucky Derby winner who had run a smashing race two weeks earlier.

Mine that Bird never came close again in eight starts. Derby winner or not, he had little going for him before the Derby and not much at all after the Preakness. Would anyone be surprised if Bravazo or Tenfold turns out to be a better horse than Mine that Bird? The 3rd and 4th finishers in Rachel's Preakness also did squat the rest of their careers.

But in terms of the final time / performance rating-- this was Justify with a bunched up field of mostly bums directly behind him. It looks to me like he ran a poor figure, and it looked to Randy Moss like he did too. And the Beyer looks right to me.

I actually have them equal overall, which I didn't know when I posted about her race, but it makes a lot of sense. She did go faster early but she also caught a pretty lengthy breather when Big Drama packed it in. I disagree with Beyer obviously about Justify, and though I certainly respect him, I think I've been right more often in these cases than he has as I haven't been as slow to give a big number. California Chrome, American Pharoah, and Gun Runner come to mind right away.

So I think you are comparing a horse who repeated her smashing performance in the Kentucky Oaks 15 days later and who then took time off and didn't come back in the Belmont to a horse who ran the worst race of his life, at best had an excuse (the pace duel), and even if we take the excuse at face value, he's likely to be tired three weeks later.

She didn't come back in the Belmont but she came back a few weeks after and won by like 20 again. Not like she was turned out for a few months or something.

I'm far from saying Justify is a cinch in the Belmont. I'll probably bet against him. I just don't see the declining form others do. I see a new, longer distance, a tougher field (maybe), and a sixth race in like 13 weeks. I don't think he declined in the Preakness. That doesn't mean I don't think he will in the Belmont.

[cj]

I seems to me like Rachel probably faced the tougher pace/pressure scenario (given how those tracks were playing also) and held off the better horse.



I think they were different but similar in how tough they were. One was against a faster horse that packed it in and allowed a breather, a pretty substantial one at that. The other battled a horse of more quality though not quite as quick, but able to maintain the battle a lot longer. If I had to pick one, I think the longer battle is slightly tougher. It was reminiscent of Frosted and American Pharoah in the Travers.

[Robert Fischer]

lot of vocal contrarian horseplayers

we had that poll "Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?" and 25/60 respondents voted that Justify is a 'toss'... :D

it's just who we are

I thought Justify's performance declined a little bit in the Preakness, but I respect TimeformUS.

They lay out all the details.

If I were to quibble about the TFUS, I would say Preakness was correct, but Derby should have given more credit to the hot 170 151 pace.
TFUS had Jus-127 GM-124 Aud-122.
I had Jus-132 GM-126 Aud-121.

I get that if you start giving too much more weight to pace, it's going to start projecting cheap speeds as winners when they shouldn't be. It's impossible to personally cater to every race, and it already does a good job of factoring pace.

Preakness seems spot on.

Strongly feel that the horse's physical condition was a significant issue. He's been improving physically since the Preakness. Whether his 103Beyer-->97Beyer or a 127TFUS-->128TFUS or a 132->128 or whatever from Derby to Preakness are more representative, the important thing to focus on is his improving physical condition. As far as performance goes, we're going to see a horse that is thriving in the Belmont, and probably healthier through the stretch-run than he's been since his OC 2nd race.

As far as raw speed goes, you've got his improving physical condition, and the likelihood that he'll be the controlling speed.

[dilanesp]

lot of vocal contrarian horseplayers.

Sure. And obviously that's part of it.

But historically, the TC is extremely difficult (and supremely difficult since 1979). So even if I wasn't so vocal about it, I am sure you would run into a board full of people who articulated reasons to bet against Justify. It just seems like the standard play is to take a stand against a TC, at least until we find out we are in another era like the 1940's or 1970's where we are going to see a bunch of TC winners.

[cj]

...at least until we find out we are in another era like the 1940's or 1970's where we are going to see a bunch of TC winners.

Randomness.

[JustRalph]

This web page can tell you all you need to know about today’s Triple Crown

http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=2

[clicknow]

Would anyone be surprised if Bravazo or Tenfold turns out to be a better horse than Mine that Bird?

That ship sailed already. Neither Bravazo nor Tenfold won the KY Derby nor ran 2nd in the Preakess.

Even if either of them run ITM in the Belmont Stakes they are already 2 steps behind Mine That Bird.

Wake me up when their career earnings are up over $2 million like MTB's.

The 3rd and 4th finishers in Rachel's Preakness also did squat the rest of their careers.

It's true that Rachel Alexandra wasn't running against world-beaters in the Preakness, but they were "good" horses.


As for Justify "declining" in the Preakness, I know you guys have your numbers, and everyone else has their numbers, but I really can't depend on numbers when a track is in as bad condition and the weather is like it was for the Preakness....that was pretty bizarro. That is a variable that you can't really assess unless you could interview each of the horses and asked them "how did ya like getting 3" of rain poured on ya and running over tractor tire tracks almost ankle deep in slop, etc.?"

I don't think he declined a whole lot if at all. And I'm not even a huge Justify fan.

[dilanesp]

Randomness.

Honestly, cj, I probably would have bet against the TC attempts in the 1970's too (don't know about the 1940's) had I been old enough to do so. My position is it is really difficult to win the TC, full stop. I think it's pretty obvious that the 1970's, at the very least, WERE random variance. (Again, the 1930's and 1940's are more interesting cases in that you could posit that the Depression and WW2 made the TC easier to win.)

I was describing the board's behavior (that given the recent record of TC attempts, people are inevitably going to look for reasons to bet against it happening unless we see a bunch of them succeeding like happened in the 1970's), not my own.

[Rex Phinney]

I'd really advise against walking out too far on a plank based upon anything derived from the Preakness. There is no other way to put it except that the race, the conditions were a mess.

Honestly I'm getting a chuckle from reading all the talk about the ups and downs of the horses involved in that race.

If the track comes up dry on Belmont day, you can (and should) toss every sheet from Pimlico.

I still think the class of the also-rans is Good Magic. Justify has taken his best shot twice now and turned him back both times. I hold Good Magic and Chad Brown in very high regard, so I feel like I have seen all I need to see from Justify.

Seeing him win in those conditions at Pimlico and the fact that the horse has Baffert and Smith on his team just has me feeling like he can do this.

[thaskalos]

Had Justify lost a nose on the wire to Bravazo, wouldn't everyone be saying he was the best horse in the race despite losing?


Sure. They'd say that Justify was a little better than Bravazo...but they'd still insist that Bravazo would win given the added distance of the Belmont.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Sure. They'd say that Justify was a little better than Bravazo...but they'd still insist that Bravazo would win given the added distance of the Belmont.


Looks like they'll both be running.



Wondering what a Bravazo v Justify line might look like?

[classhandicapper]

Mine that Bird never came close again in eight starts. Derby winner or not, he had little going for him before the Derby and not much at all after the Preakness. Would anyone be surprised if Bravazo or Tenfold turns out to be a better horse than Mine that Bird? The 3rd and 4th finishers in Rachel's Preakness also did squat the rest of their careers.

I would be shocked if Bravazo and Tenfold don't go on to be better than Mine that Bird, but I think MTB was better than Bravazo in this Derby/Preakness snapshot in time. MTB got pretty good for 3 races, but never got any better. So he never got good enough to compete with older horses.

I'm not going to debate figures because to me this is typical stuff.

If you lay out Beyer, TG, Rags, Timeform, and any other set of figures, they are going to disagree on horses fairly often. The input figures they use to project are different, their figure charts are different, and the subjective judgement of the figures makers is different. So you get different results.

I think that's an argument for thinking about races as very fast, fast, average, slow and very slow and not worrying too much about a few points in either direction. No one is getting them all right.

That's why I also do comparisons in a more "class and race flow oriented" way instead of just looking at fractions and final times. Sometimes when viewed from another direction it clarifies the situation.

[Blenheim]

I would be shocked if Bravazo and Tenfold don't go on to be better than Mine that Bird, but I think MTB was better than Bravazo in this Derby/Preakness snapshot in time. MTB got pretty good for 3 races, but never got any better. So he never got good enough to compete with older horses.

I'm not going to debate figures because to me this is typical stuff.

If you lay out Beyer, TG, Rags, Timeform, and any other set of figures, they are going to disagree on horses fairly often. The input figures they use to project are different, their figure charts are different, and the subjective judgement of the figures makers is different. So you get different results.

I think that's an argument for thinking about races as very fast, fast, average, slow and very slow and not worrying too much about a few points in either direction. No one is getting them all right.

That's why I also do comparisons in a more "class and race flow oriented" way instead of just looking at fractions and final times. Sometimes when viewed from another direction it clarifies the situation.


I agree w/not debating the figures as no one system is gonna get em' right every time. However, when several systems show the same trend, it gives the trend added value. With respect to the class and race flow, considering what Bolt did at two, I thought he was a classier horse than Justify and Bolt had no excuses in the California and the Kentucky but nevertheless, Justify handed it to him both times . . . so the swiftys are making class distinctions a bit blurry.

[Robert Fischer]

Our job as horse players is mainly about deciding who the 'best' horses are. When the best horse is clearly a good price and/or when the public favorite is clearly not the best horse we have a fair chance at taking a gamble in what can generally be an inequitable game. :coffee: A 'rigged' game with mostly terrible prices.

Our job as horse players is best left to deciding who the best horses are. Tactics, strategy of the jockeys certainly are impactful factors, but they are generally much more useful in hindsight than as a poor predictive factor. A few major angles (e.g. 'lone speed') are valuable as part of a larger model that demands a significant accompanying value. Situations even as strong as lone speed often don't play out to our expectations.

Thus to bet on jockeys (tactics, stats, or otherwise) is wisely regarded as a 'fools errand'. A futile, trifling, trivial pursuit. Many players will go so far as to say "jockeys don't matter!". Aside from those lost souls known in racing circles as 'Trip Handicappers', it's become one of the 'truths' of handicapping; "This is horse racing, not jockey racing!". Even trip-handicappers relegate jockey tactics to hindsight. A project post-mortem.

Mine that Bird and Super Saver are rare, extreme examples of jockey tactics capitalizing on an opportunity, when the horses were not even among the top tier of contenders, much less 'best'. This can trigger a lot of cognitive dissonance. How can you say the 15th best horse in the Kentucky Derby won because of the jockey?

[dilanesp]

Our job as horse players is mainly about deciding who the 'best' horses are. When the best horse is clearly a good price and/or when the public favorite is clearly not the best horse we have a fair chance at taking a gamble in what can generally be an inequitable game. :coffee: A 'rigged' game with mostly terrible prices.

Our job as horse players is best left to deciding who the best horses are. Tactics, strategy of the jockeys certainly are impactful factors, but they are generally much more useful in hindsight than as a poor predictive factor. A few major angles (e.g. 'lone speed') are valuable as part of a larger model that demands a significant accompanying value. Situations even as strong as lone speed often don't play out to our expectations.

Thus to bet on jockeys (tactics, stats, or otherwise) is wisely regarded as a 'fools errand'. A futile, trifling, trivial pursuit. Many players will go so far as to say "jockeys don't matter!". Aside from those lost souls known in racing circles as 'Trip Handicappers', it's become one of the 'truths' of handicapping; "This is horse racing, not jockey racing!". Even trip-handicappers relegate jockey tactics to hindsight. A project post-mortem.

Mine that Bird and Super Saver are rare, extreme examples of jockey tactics capitalizing on an opportunity, when the horses were not even among the top tier of contenders, much less 'best'. This can trigger a lot of cognitive dissonance. How can you say the 15th best horse in the Kentucky Derby won because of the jockey?

This is what I had thought happened at the time, but I stopped believing that after the Belmont. I don't know WHY MTB got so good, but he got really good for 3 races.

If it was just Borel, why did he run so good in the Preakness? Bear in mind, if the filly hadn't been transferred to Asmussen, he would have won 2/3 of the TC.

[Robert Fischer]

This is what I had thought happened at the time, but I stopped believing that after the Belmont. I don't know WHY MTB got so good, but he got really good for 3 races.

If it was just Borel, why did he run so good in the Preakness? Bear in mind, if the filly hadn't been transferred to Asmussen, he would have won 2/3 of the TC.
If you think a Bravazo type of horse in a weak 3yo crop is 'so good' than we agree.


--opinions on 2009 Preakness/Belmont--

2009 Preakness was worse than the 2018 Preakness, but not by a ton.

A prime Rachel ran similar to an 80% gut-it-out Justify

No Good Magic was the biggest difference in literal quality. Big Drama, the Florida series sprinter played the role of a poor-man's Good Magic.

Musket Man was similar to Tenfold.

Mine That Bird's 2009 Preakness was similar to Bravazo's 2018 running, albeit different running styles.

-
Then the 2009 Belmont was even worse...
Mine That Bird was 6/5 and Rachel was out.

Imagine a Belmont without Justify, where Bravazo is sent off at 6/5 odds!



They did not disappoint in the running of the race.

Dunkirk, at one point an interesting "curse of apollo" triple crown trail horse whose best redeeming quality at that point may have been 'GRAY' ran well enough to contend for a mediocre win. That was his last lifetime race. Although he managed to re-pass the hanging MTB, he did so while gutting-out a condylar fracture. Had Borel not tried a gimmicky premature middle-move (more suited to a pace-collapse Kentucky Derby, than a somewhat forward-favoring Belmont Stakes), Mine That Bird would have likely contended with Dunkirk for a mediocre win. Summer Bird may or may not have joined that duo in a classic 3-horse bunching finish.

[clicknow]

This is what I had thought happened at the time, but I stopped believing that after the Belmont. I don't know WHY MTB got so good, but he got really good for 3 races.

So his winning 3 stakes (consequetively) in Canada as a 2 year old (before he ran in the TC races in the U.S and did well). don't count? :confused: (purses were $100K, $150K, and $250K).

Then he went to high altitude racing up there in Sunland, (he ran 2nd in the Borderland and 4th I think in the Sunland) before coming to the ky derby. That put some peak oxygen and heart "fitness" into him.

He also had the pedigree for classic distance.

At any rate, he was good for more than 3 races.

[Tom]

His big improvement came when he switched from poly to dirt - not uncommon for horses to explode with that move, and he set a monster new pace top in the Sunland Derby, another move that often signal a big move ahead.
His TC races look to me to be a perfect storm of impending moves. Right place, right time.

So why didn't I have him in the Derby? :rant:

[alhattab]

I like Hofburg in the Belmont at this point. Got into a friendly debate with a good racetracker friend- he's on this board- at Monmouth yesterday about Hofburg's lack of credentials going into the Belmont. He's still eligible for a NW1X and is graded stakes placed (FL Derby 2d). My view is that for a race like the Belmont a talented horse with the right breeding- heavy emphasis on breeding- is much more important than winning races at much shorter distances. His view was that he's still eligible for NW1X, which is effectively an indictment of Hofburg's talent, and that the Belmont will be Justify's easiest race due to weak competition (I don't like Justify based on his pedigree).

I decided to look myself at past winners going back to 2000 to see what credentials they had going into the race, and figured I'd share. The complete list is below. Of the 18 winners:

-5 were still eligible for NW1X
-2 were eligible for NW2X (including Drosselmeyer, making his 9th start in the Belmont)
-1 was a non-graded stakes winner
-10 had won at least a G2 stakes

I didn't look at all the prices, but from recall the NW1X winners were all big prices except Jazil (nearly 7-1). Summer Bird was around 12-1. Da Tara was 38-1. Commendable was, somehow, 18-1 (in my view he should have been 118-1, but just goes to show how bad that Belmont was). Sarava with only a SW was also a huge price. You won't get paid anywhere near that for Hofburg. I think he's going to be something like 9/2.


2017 Tapwrit- G2 Stakes Winner
2016 Creator- G1 SW
2015 American Pharoah
2014 Tonalist G2 SW
2013 Palace Malice G2 SP, elig for NW1X
2012 Union Rags MGSW
2011 Ruler on Ice MGSP, elig for NW2X
2010 Drosselmeyer MGSP elig for NW2X
2009 Summer Bird GSP, elig for NW1X
2008 Da Tara SP, elig for NW1X
2007 Rags to Riches MG1SW
2006 Jazil GSP, elig for NW1X
2005 Afleet Alex MG1SW
2004 Birdstone G1SW
2003 Empire Maker MG1SW
2002 Sarava SW
2001 Point Given MG1SW
2000 Commendable elig for NW1X

[SkunkApe]

I like Hofburg in the Belmont at this point. Got into a friendly debate with a good racetracker friend- he's on this board- at Monmouth yesterday about Hofburg's lack of credentials going into the Belmont. He's still eligible for a NW1X and is graded stakes placed (FL Derby 2d). My view is that for a race like the Belmont a talented horse with the right breeding- heavy emphasis on breeding- is much more important than winning races at much shorter distances. His view was that he's still eligible for NW1X, which is effectively an indictment of Hofburg's talent, and that the Belmont will be Justify's easiest race due to weak competition (I don't like Justify based on his pedigree).

I decided to look myself at past winners going back to 2000 to see what credentials they had going into the race, and figured I'd share. The complete list is below. Of the 18 winners:

-5 were still eligible for NW1X
-2 were eligible for NW2X (including Drosselmeyer, making his 9th start in the Belmont)
-1 was a non-graded stakes winner
-10 had won at least a G2 stakes

I didn't look at all the prices, but from recall the NW1X winners were all big prices except Jazil (nearly 7-1). Summer Bird was around 12-1. Da Tara was 38-1. Commendable was, somehow, 18-1 (in my view he should have been 118-1, but just goes to show how bad that Belmont was). Sarava with only a SW was also a huge price. You won't get paid anywhere near that for Hofburg. I think he's going to be something like 9/2.


2017 Tapwrit- G2 Stakes Winner
2016 Creator- G1 SW
2015 American Pharoah
2014 Tonalist G2 SW
2013 Palace Malice G2 SP, elig for NW1X
2012 Union Rags MGSW
2011 Ruler on Ice MGSP, elig for NW2X
2010 Drosselmeyer MGSP elig for NW2X
2009 Summer Bird GSP, elig for NW1X
2008 Da Tara SP, elig for NW1X
2007 Rags to Riches MG1SW
2006 Jazil GSP, elig for NW1X
2005 Afleet Alex MG1SW
2004 Birdstone G1SW
2003 Empire Maker MG1SW
2002 Sarava SW
2001 Point Given MG1SW
2000 Commendable elig for NW1X


Good info. Thanks.

(For what it’s worth, at this point I’m think your buddy has the right of it regarding Hofburg.)

[LemonSoupKid]

Great info, yes, thanks hattab. I'm with you, inclined to side with the breeding and multiple generational connections Hofburg has to Belmont Stakes winners, but I do understand the sentiment of your friend --- I'm sympathetic to the reality that this run has been fairly easy overall for Justify.

Yes, it will depend on price.

The other counter you can give to your friend is that like running in the Derby with 20 horses, the Belmont is yet another example of (at least on dirt) we rarely see again in a year, and certainly not for 3yo, the 12f distance. That makes it an oddball to handicap, without a doubt.

[GMB@BP]

Hofberg will be no more than 5/1 and feels like the belmont wise guy horse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There doesn't have to be an overwhelming case load of evidence to bet against Justify in the Belmont. A few hints is good enough. This is pile on against time not to be timid. This is just reflex for any seasoned player. If he wins I'll be glad to see another Triple Crown winner but I will hate it and move on to the next race as a player. I will equally relish his lack of seasoning catching up with him in the stretch and will be an annoying asshole at the track because of all the Peter Puffing about him up to this point! Hopefully blowing up tickets at his expense! The Curse of Apollo has been broken. Maybe the Blessing of Apollo can begin by this Belmont failure! C'mon! Anyway happy holiday all! In the less exciting world of Cincyhorseplayer racing I hit 3 exactas all $50 or less at win bet prices and tore it up yesterday. Not as exciting as the above scenario but getting it done. Yee haw!:)

[Robert Fischer]

So his winning 3 stakes (consequetively) in Canada as a 2 year old (before he ran in the TC races in the U.S and did well). don't count? :confused: (purses were $100K, $150K, and $250K).

Then he went to high altitude racing up there in Sunland, (he ran 2nd in the Borderland and 4th I think in the Sunland) before coming to the ky derby. That put some peak oxygen and heart "fitness" into him.

He also had the pedigree for classic distance.

At any rate, he was good for more than 3 races.

'Good' if you mean a decent G3/Ungraded-Stakes type.
'Not Good' if you mean a top-tier 3yo.


Broke MDN 2nd start in a 62500 Maiden Claimer @ 9/1
Won 2 ungraded stakes and the G3 Grey with Bris Speed figures of 88,89,85 each was a 6 horse field
Was dead last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile while posting the highest speed figure that he managed his entire Pre-Derby resume (90 Bris)
Went off 7/2 (2nd choice or so?) In the unheralded Sunland prep ungraded stakes and finished 2nd. Can't entirely trust comments, but reads "2nd Best"
Did not take money in Sunland Derby (13/1), made a middle-move into a hot pace coming from mid-pack to 3rd/2nd and flattened out to 4th late. 88 bris speed figure, but at least a reasonably decent pace adversity
Had now racked up only the 12th best earnings out of 20 Derby entrants, in spite of winning some soft stakes at Woodbine to start his career
Bris Prime Power was now 17th out of 20 Derby entrants
Derby Morning line was 50/1
Poor speed figures relative to the Derby contenders
4/6 on Synthetic at that point and 0/2 on Dirt (but did show his only decent pace figures on Dirt in the Sunland Derby)
Running Style was "E/P 4" (as opposed to the "S 0" Borel would use in the Derby)



You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.
17th best if you go by the sloppy inaccurate Bris Prime Power.
Now, if you really favored some of his strong suits (good pace in the Sunland Derby and a nose for the wire in some cheaper stakes early on), while ignoring his non-contending speed figures, you could make a realistic case that instead of 17th best, that he was actually 9th or 10th best in that field and a mildly interesting long shot at a big price.

[classhandicapper]

Mine That Bird was a tough horse to come up with in the Derby if you were trying to come up with the most probable winner, but it was very easy to know he was better than looked on paper. It just wasn't that easy to think he'd also move forward a lot off that fast paced race at Sunland.

He got a very good trip in the Derby, but his races in the Peakness and Belmont proved his win in the Derby was not just some fluke result of the off track and rail skimming ride. He had gotten much better also.

He was what he was.

He was a lower quality stakes horse that peaked at the perfect moment, was competitive in all 3 Triple Crown races at that higher level, and then never developed further. So he was never competitive against older stakes horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Mine That Bird was a tough horse to come up with in the Derby if you were trying to come up with the most probable winner, but it was very easy to know he was better than looked on paper. It just wasn't that easy to think he'd also move forward a lot off that fast paced race at Sunland.

He got a very good trip in the Derby, but his races in the Peakness and Belmont proved his win in the Derby was not just some fluke result of the off track and rail skimming ride. He had gotten much better also.

He was what he was.

He was a lower quality stakes horse that peaked at the perfect moment, was competitive in all 3 Triple Crown races at that higher level, and then never developed further. So he was never competitive against older stakes horses.

Couldn't disagree more.


He was likely somewhere between 9th and 17th best Derby Contender
He got one of the all time EXTREME examples of a brilliant impactful ride by a jockey
Even that brilliant ride was only possible because of the great setup and mediocre Derby crop (from memory Quality Road didn't run, I Want Revenge had some wierd scratch, and logical Pioneerof The Nile just wasn't your typical Baffert freakshow)
MTB then ran a non-threatening 2nd in the Preakness to edge out 'Musket Man'
MTB then made a gimmicky premature middle-move before flattening out to finish 3rd in an awful edition of the Belmont Stakes


Extreme example of a brilliant ride from a jockey that impacted a race and the right conditions to pull it off.

[Robert Fischer]

Here's another unpopular opinion for you guys to consider (not that you consider the cognitive dissonance MTB stuff);

TENFOLD's Preakness was much more interesting than BRAVAZO's Preakness.

Why??

Because at one point in the Preakness, Tenfold actually had a chance of winning. Bravazo never looked a possible winner at any stage in the Preakness unless the finish line had got up and run away.

Yet the vast majority here are more interested in Bravazo's Preakness.

[dilanesp]

'Good' if you mean a decent G3/Ungraded-Stakes type.
'Not Good' if you mean a top-tier 3yo.


Broke MDN 2nd start in a 62500 Maiden Claimer @ 9/1
Won 2 ungraded stakes and the G3 Grey with Bris Speed figures of 88,89,85 each was a 6 horse field
Was dead last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile while posting the highest speed figure that he managed his entire Pre-Derby resume (90 Bris)
Went off 7/2 (2nd choice or so?) In the unheralded Sunland prep ungraded stakes and finished 2nd. Can't entirely trust comments, but reads "2nd Best"
Did not take money in Sunland Derby (13/1), made a middle-move into a hot pace coming from mid-pack to 3rd/2nd and flattened out to 4th late. 88 bris speed figure, but at least a reasonably decent pace adversity
Had now racked up only the 12th best earnings out of 20 Derby entrants, in spite of winning some soft stakes at Woodbine to start his career
Bris Prime Power was now 17th out of 20 Derby entrants
Derby Morning line was 50/1
Poor speed figures relative to the Derby contenders
4/6 on Synthetic at that point and 0/2 on Dirt (but did show his only decent pace figures on Dirt in the Sunland Derby)
Running Style was "E/P 4" (as opposed to the "S 0" Borel would use in the Derby)



You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.
17th best if you go by the sloppy inaccurate Bris Prime Power.
Now, if you really favored some of his strong suits (good pace in the Sunland Derby and a nose for the wire in some cheaper stakes early on), while ignoring his non-contending speed figures, you could make a realistic case that instead of 17th best, that he was actually 9th or 10th best in that field and a mildly interesting long shot at a big price.

I really dislike this kind of redboarding, which I also remember seeing after Arcangues won the BC Classic.

If this constitutes great form, how come we don't see horses with these kinds of records winning the Derby every year by open lengths?

MTB's Derby speed figure was something like a 15 point improvement from anything he had run before. His Preakness was also 10 points better than any of his pre-Derby races. He was kicking around minor stakes at 2 and 3 and had never run a race that would have come close to winning or even finishing in the money in a TC race.

[Tom]

You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.

Well, he was obviously a top TC horse because for 2/3 of the TC races, the only one to beat him was Rachael, so anything good you remember about the top TC horse that year, remember that! Must have been a bad crop.

[clicknow]

If this constitutes great form, how come we don't see horses with these kinds of records winning the Derby every year by open lengths?

MTB's Derby speed figure was something like a 15 point improvement from anything he had run before. His Preakness was also 10 points better than any of his pre-Derby races.

What is does show is that 3 year olds can and do improve quite rapidly in a time-space during this stage of their growth and often "jump up", lights go on, etc.

I was at Oaklawn the day Creator won (a friend who publishes a sheet and I literally RAN to the ticket teller 2 MTP after seeing him in post parade) but everyone was pretty much looking "dazed and confused", having wagered Cupid and Whitmore, when Creator won the AR Derby......12-1 or so.......who still went off at even higher odds for the KY Derby and probably would have done better had he not had an EXTREMELY troubled trip (which would have been an appropriate "throw out race" if you were trying to analyze him.) So of course he goes off at 16-1 in the Belmont, based on that trip in the KY Derby and those who could see he was "peaking" during this small period of time (sort of like MTB) were rewarded.

(that would not include me as I did not think he would win the Belmont). He took forever to break his maiden if I remember correctly.......BUT once he put it together, he had it going on.

[Robert Fischer]

I've never liked BLENDED CITIZEN, at all, but he is a horse who seems to be peaking.

He eats up ground in the stretch.

I think his value is slightly hurt by the fact that VINO ROSSO is so damned good, and is a similar running style. VINO ROSSO looked prime to run a belated 3rd or so in the Derby, but he didn't fire. I don't think the blinkers and the muddy-kickback behind a wall of horses was a good mix.

Maybe these two grinders will be passing tired rivals to fill out 2/4ths of the Belmont superfecta?

[clicknow]

You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.

But defending "a top tier derby contender" who doesn't hit the board is worthy of defending?

......we've all done it but it means there is something, somewhere, in one's handicapping process that "didn't work".

Every year we have horses who are entirely ignored by the talking heads and the clockers and the commentators and everyone else. There were about 4 horses in the Preakness this year that I literally had to squeeze my ear to the ground to hear ANYTHING about......it was almost as if they weren't even scheduled to run in the race. :mad:

[clicknow]

VINO ROSSO is so damned good



So it doesn't concern you that Vino Rosso is working 4F for a 1-1/2 mile race :D

Other than his dam being 1/2 sis to Commissioner, please tell me what is "so damned good" about him?

[Robert Fischer]

So it doesn't concern you that Vino Rosso is working 4F for a 1-1/2 mile race :D

Other than his dam being 1/2 sis to Commissioner, please tell me what is "so damned good" about him?

Justify is also going to try to get one 4F work in if his hoof is OK.

Vino is doing two 4F works because he's fresh after he had the luxury of skipping the Preakness to point to this Belmont race.

Vino Rosso is so damned good because he's a really good animal. I've watched his races and his workouts and it stands out. Justify is a special once-in-a-generation type of athlete, but Vino Rosso is good enough to be among the top several animals in any given year.

He isn't a perfect jack-of-all-trades. He's a specialist. He's a relentless grinder. His tactical speed is below average. His game is wearing-down his rivals with the help of pace and distance.

Vino Rosso has some really weird form:

Sam F / Tampa D. = very slow paced races
Wood Memorial = DREAM TRIP
Kentucky Derby = sitting behind a tidal wave of mud kickback

[clicknow]

Robert I was concerned about him since some onlookers said he was melting down in paddock before the race, literally shaking from nerves.......apparently from the large crowds? So I kinda wasn't expecting him to run well in the Derby, regardless of the mud. I wasn't there in person so cannot corroborate. He certainly seems like he has some stamina but for me, at least, a nice long grinder type gallop in the BEL would require a "relaxed horse" so those reports did worry me.

[boys at tosconova]

Here's another unpopular opinion for you guys to consider (not that you consider the cognitive dissonance MTB stuff);

TENFOLD's Preakness was much more interesting than BRAVAZO's Preakness.

Why??

Because at one point in the Preakness, Tenfold actually had a chance of winning. Bravazo never looked a possible winner at any stage in the Preakness unless the finish line had got up and run away.

Yet the vast majority here are more interested in Bravazo's Preakness.



bravazo wouldn't have been n the money if GM didn't push the issue.

obv the belmont is a different race but bravazo will be seriously overbet

[clicknow]

obv the belmont is a different race but bravazo will be seriously overbet

Yes, for sure, not only because of this Preakness but because of Paynter and Oxbow........I call 'em the triplets. :)

[papillon]

If you think a Bravazo type of horse in a weak 3yo crop is 'so good' than we agree.


--opinions on 2009 Preakness/Belmont--

2009 Preakness was worse than the 2018 Preakness, but not by a ton.

A prime Rachel ran similar to an 80% gut-it-out Justify

Where do you get this "80%" from?

His Preakness was exactly like every other race he's won. His performance was identical to every other race of his, except he was forced to run the mile in 1:36.10. And he almost lost. Before the race, Bob said he was 100%, better than Pharoah, able to recover in milliseconds, better than Pharoah, oh my gosh, best horse he ever trained, better than Pharoah, foot is a-ok, etc. Wouldn't he know? He says it now too. What % would you say Justify will be at post-time?


Everyone says that Good Magic committed suicide and that Bravazo and Tenfold, who were right there with them from the half on, only got close because Good magic softened Justify up (strangely, his pace had no impact on them, since they were right there too, but were able to finish).

Big Money Mike would surely have been able to tell if the horse he was on was 20% weaker than normal, right? Knowing his horse was 20% weaker, why would he engage in the world's slowest speed duel? Why not drop back and press Good Magic? Conserve that 80%.

I have no clue what to think about Bravazo, he stupifies me, but Tenfold ran exactly like I expected him to, as did Good Magic and Justify to be honest. Good Magic, Tenfold, Justify all at the wire within a length is what I expected. Of them, I went with the one with the best odds. The Preakness was very formful, unless you expected more from Justify.

*************

Rachel ran almost a second faster than Justify 1:55.08 vs 1:55.93. I know Rachel was fast, because unlike Justify, she never had to play fast and loose with her raw times. She ran the 3rd fastest Haskell ever, 1:47.21, only Bet Twice and Majestic Light ran it faster.

MTB was a wonder, a little blip of Disney-esque fantasy, but Rachel was Rachel. Her Preakness isn't judged on MTB, MTB's is judged on hers.

If Justify had to try to run 9f in 1:47.21, he'd faint dead away.

Its funny that when horses really are fast, their collected times speak for themselves. When they aren't, their figs must.

Its also funny the different cultures at different boards, over at Thorograph it was mentioned that Justify isn't even as fast as Gunnevera, though they didn't specify if that was at 80% or 100%

FWIW I don't get anyone who demeans MTB, a $9,000 horse that was only about an inch taller than the official horse/pony cut-off point, that had one of the best 5 weeks in Spring of any horse in the last 15 years. It was a great TC, a 50-1 long shot and a filly. Come on, when is that going to happen again? MTB aquitted himself admirably. He was a cool little horse.

[dilanesp]

If Justify had to try to run 9f in 1:47.21, he'd faint dead away.

His Santa Anita Derby time was actually tremendously fast, and I didn't need a Beyer figure to know that. The Santa Anita track has slowed down more than 2 seconds in route races over the past couple of years, as they have tried to give it a better cushion and make it safer to reduce breakdowns. I know this simply because I watch all the races and keep track of the final times.

Had Justify gotten the chance to run over the 2014 track that Game on Dude ran 1:58 flat over and California Chrome ran 1:47 2/5 over, he would have run a very fast time in the Santa Anita Derby.

But this year? Look at the other major 9 furlong stakes on the Santa Anita calendar:

The Santa Margarita, won by Fault in 1:50 2/5.

The Californian, won by Dr. Dorr in 1:49 4/5.

Note that both of those were big races won by older horses. Justify's 1:49 3/5 looks pretty good, doesn't it?

[clicknow]

FWIW I don't get anyone who demeans MTB, a $9,000 horse that was only about an inch taller than the official horse/pony cut-off point, that had one of the best 5 weeks in Spring of any horse in the last 15 years. It was a great TC, a 50-1 long shot and a filly. Come on, when is that going to happen again? MTB aquitted himself admirably. He was a cool little horse.

A cool little horse. :jump:

I was bemusing if I could get a retired racehorse for pleasure riding or just a buddy, I would get MTB. He had a delightful personality too.

[cj]

His Santa Anita Derby time was actually tremendously fast, and I didn't need a Beyer figure to know that. The Santa Anita track has slowed down more than 2 seconds in route races over the past couple of years, as they have tried to give it a better cushion and make it safer to reduce breakdowns. I know this simply because I watch all the races and keep track of the final times.

Had Justify gotten the chance to run over the 2014 track that Game on Dude ran 1:58 flat over and California Chrome ran 1:47 2/5 over, he would have run a very fast time in the Santa Anita Derby.

But this year? Look at the other major 9 furlong stakes on the Santa Anita calendar:

The Santa Margarita, won by Fault in 1:50 2/5.

The Californian, won by Dr. Dorr in 1:49 4/5.

Note that both of those were big races won by older horses. Justify's 1:49 3/5 looks pretty good, doesn't it?

The guy is just trolling at this point.

[GMB@BP]

The guy is just trolling at this point.

Lots of hearts were broken when Mendelssohn went down.

[boys at tosconova]

the thing about these types of threads is people were already saying this before the preakness was even over.

i mean,...people were ramping up to say this w/o even knowing who's in the race as well. hey "look at me" i'm the first to make an epic prediction.

i'm not saying justy won't chit the bed, he might. nor am i saying the OP mo was to this.

i will say that the lone wolf went down in flames and is prolly a good reason why justy will prolly win. he should be allowed to post so he can build his case against justy once again as well so we can feel safe about betting him.......hahahahha

[dilanesp]

the thing about these types of threads is people were already saying this before the preakness was even over.

i mean,...people were ramping up to say this w/o even knowing who's in the race as well. hey "look at me" i'm the first to make an epic prediction.

i'm not saying justy won't chit the bed, he might. nor am i saying the OP mo was to this.

i will say that the lone wolf went down in flames and is prolly a good reason why justy will prolly win. he should be allowed to post so he can build his case against justy once again as well so we can feel safe about betting him.......hahahahha

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

[boys at tosconova]

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

if he's spent he'll be vulnerable. don't know how much or to what extent he'll fade. or if it even fazed him

if there ever is a time to bet against him it could be here. but like i said in another thread. the other top 6 derby threats aren't even in here. and the ones in here he beat soundly by 8L>more in the KD

he could have it all cushy up front. as most/all of these will not be pushing like GM did.

[GMB@BP]

if he's spent he'll be vulnerable. don't know how much or to what extent he'll fade. or if it even fazed him

if there ever is a time to bet against him it could be here. but like i said in another thread. the other top 6 derby threats aren't even in here. and the ones in here he beat soundly by 8L>more in the KD

he could have it all cushy up front. as most/all of these will not be pushing like GM did.

I am not sold at this distance at all for Justify. I think he is probably best at a mile and just stretched his speed based on pure talent.

[classhandicapper]

Couldn't disagree more.


He was likely somewhere between 9th and 17th best Derby Contender
He got one of the all time EXTREME examples of a brilliant impactful ride by a jockey
Even that brilliant ride was only possible because of the great setup and mediocre Derby crop (from memory Quality Road didn't run, I Want Revenge had some wierd scratch, and logical Pioneerof The Nile just wasn't your typical Baffert freakshow)
MTB then ran a non-threatening 2nd in the Preakness to edge out 'Musket Man'
MTB then made a gimmicky premature middle-move before flattening out to finish 3rd in an awful edition of the Belmont Stakes


Extreme example of a brilliant ride from a jockey that impacted a race and the right conditions to pull it off.

Yep. We'll have to agree to disagree.

I didn't say he was a strong contender going into the Derby. I said he was better than he looked on paper going in (based on figures or quality of race). To me, that's not even a debate. That Sunland race had a very hot pace. He made a sharp wide premature move into it and was certainly impacted negatively. So whatever he looked like going in on paper, he was better than that. I also said, the tough part was knowing he would get a lot better too (which he did)

We agree that he got a perfect ride in the Derby, but to me when you finish 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont you are demonstrating that you aren't some total fluke that sucked up off a killer pace in the Derby to never run well again (we've seen plenty of those).

You are saying you are a good horse that won the Derby with some racing luck but you weren't good enough to string a few races of that caliber together. There was nothing wrong with Musket Man at that time (who he beat in the Preakness) or Summer Bird (who he lost to partly because of the premature Belmont move).

The real issue with him to me was that he was a mediocre horse early in his career. The significant forward development into the Triple Crown kind of capped and peaked his development. He didn't get better after the Triple Crown series. If you don't get better than he was, older horses will trounce you later in the year. When he came back at 4 for Lukas he was basically done.

Take a horse like Bravazo. There is nothing wrong with him. He's a good horse. I assume he's going to keep getting better, but if he doesn't, he'll be running in ALW races at the end of the year. That doesn't mean he's not a pretty good 3yo now. Part of the equation is development.

[classhandicapper]

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

I think I can sum it up fairly well.

1. Going into the Derby it looked like he could be "anything".

2. After the Derby it looked he had a chance to be really special given that he put away the other speeds against very fast fractions, won clear, and looked like there was more in the tank so early in his career.

3. After the Preakness it looked like he was a length better than Gold Magic with a similar pace trip (some might even argue being inside was a disadvantage for Good Magic) and a few lengths better the 2nd tier horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor.

I think the perception changed from "potential superhorse" to "best horse in the crop but not so superior he's unbeatable at Belmont".

Part of that is the record of some horses going into the Belmont and not sustaining their best form, the fact that's he's rushed so many races into a short period and could need a freshening, and that's he's been a speed horse that could be vulnerable going 12F if he runs with someone early.

You weight all that and come up with a line.

[thaskalos]

I think I can sum it up fairly well.

1. Going into the Derby it looked like he could be "anything".

2. After the Derby it looked he had a chance to be really special given that he put away the other speeds against very fast fractions, won clear, and looked like there was more in the tank so early in his career.

3. After the Preakness it looked like he was a length better than Gold Magic with a similar pace trip (some might even argue being inside was a disadvantage for Good Magic) and a few lengths better the 2nd tier horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor.

I think the perception changed from "potential superhorse" to "best horse in the crop but not so superior he's unbeatable at Belmont".

Part of that is the record of some horses going into the Belmont and not sustaining their best form, the fact that's he's rushed so many races into a short period and could need a freshening, and that's he's been a speed horse that could be vulnerable going 12F if he runs with someone early.

You weight all that and come up with a line.

Sure...leave the hard part to us! :ThmbUp:

[Spalding No!]

The real issue with him to me was that he was a mediocre horse early in his career. The significant forward development into the Triple Crown kind of capped and peaked his development. He didn't get better after the Triple Crown series. If you don't get better than he was, older horses will trounce you later in the year. When he came back at 4 for Lukas he was basically done.

This ignores the very significant fact that Mine That Bird raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces prior to his New Mexico starts. Some would completely toss his entire record on those surfaces just as one would justifiably ignore the dirt races of a turf horse running in a turf race.

So all you had to go on was his 2 Sunland races, which, as you pointed out, were better than they looked. The problem with his form was the massive jump in class from those races to the Kentucky Derby. Basically, he was almost as much an X-factor as Animal Kingdom was prior to his Derby victory.

As far as Mine That Bird's post-Triple Crown career, again its nearly a complete toss. He had a major throat issue that impeded his effort in the West Virginia Derby and kept him out of the Travers. His two starts against elders were on a synthetic surface. And as you said, he was toast at 4 (not to mention he ran on turf in his comeback).

[thaskalos]

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

[dilanesp]

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

+1

There's a chasm between "there are some legitimate arguments as to why MTB's form going into the Derby was somewhat better than it looked" and "MTB was always a top class horse and big-time Derby contender".

[classhandicapper]

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

It's definitely not.

But normally if you looked at a horse's PPs and saw him running Beyer figures in the low 80s, get beat in the Sunland Derby and run a Beyer figure of 80, you'd think he should be 500-1 or higher. If you knew the race was probably the equivalent of Beyer 90, then maybe you could think he's an improving horse you could throw into a super and hope he lucks into the bottom at a big price. I didn't use him, but I clearly remember watching the replay and saying to myself "this horse is better than he looks". He moved forward a lot.

[classhandicapper]

Sure...leave the hard part to us! :ThmbUp:

haha

Well, right after the race I was 100% set to make a very big bet against him. Most of the time these Triple Crown candidates are very over bet to begin with. And since I feel the gap between him and some of the other horses is narrow enough for someone to turn the tables going 12F, I was going to spread a little and try to both just cash and/or crush the race.

Right now I've moderated my view a little because there's not that much speed in the race, Audible is out, and he seems to have bounced out of the Preakness in very good shape. He just had a terrific work today.

I'm still going to try to beat him, but the amount is shrinking.

The only way he'll be on top of any of my tickets is if I come up with someone at a big price and just save with him over that horse.

[thaskalos]

The Belmont exemplifies why this game is so difficult to beat. Even if you start out with the courageous move of crossing out the odds-on favorite...your handicapping work is just beginning. Theoretically, once you eliminate the odds-on choice from the top spot...you should be on profitable ground no matter WHICH of the remaining horses you choose to wager on. But I've never quite seen this theory being proven to my satisfaction...

[Spalding No!]

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?
Since 2009 apparently. Call it the "Curse of Mine That Bird".

[classhandicapper]

The Belmont exemplifies why this game is so difficult to beat. Even if you start out with the courageous move of crossing out the odds-on favorite...your handicapping work is just beginning. Theoretically, once you eliminate the odds-on choice from the top spot...you should be on profitable ground no matter WHICH of the remaining horses you choose to wager on. But I've never quite seen this theory being proven to my satisfaction...

My own experience is that if I think the favorite is flawed, they still win often enough to not make the rest of the field easy pickings. I still have to come up with some positive value oriented opinion among the rest (which of course is not easy).

I think Justify is the most likely winner. I just know from experience the public tends to go way overboard on these Triple Crown prospects. So I try to get involved in some way if I have any opinions.

[LemonSoupKid]

The Belmont exemplifies why this game is so difficult to beat. Even if you start out with the courageous move of crossing out the odds-on favorite...your handicapping work is just beginning. Theoretically, once you eliminate the odds-on choice from the top spot...you should be on profitable ground no matter WHICH of the remaining horses you choose to wager on. But I've never quite seen this theory being proven to my satisfaction...

Too many choices to attract attention and at 20% vig roughly, brutally hard most times

[clicknow]

So all you had to go on was his 2 Sunland races, which, as you pointed out, were better than they looked. The problem with his form was the massive jump in class from those races to the Kentucky Derby. Basically, he was almost as much an X-factor as Animal Kingdom was prior to his Derby victory.

Unless you're the kind of handicapper who gives "extra points" to multi-surface runners, like Lava Man, Einstein, Awesome Gem, Sidney's Candy, Fanny Freud, Evening Jewel, Tizqueena, Zardana (who beat Rachel Alexandra@FG), Zenyatta, Mine That Bird, etc.

"Can run on anything", to me, denotes a superior athlete who will do what they do w/out excuses as to surfaces.

And yeah, MTB was never quite right in VIR due to needing throat surgery, and didn't seem to ever be the same after he had it. How that is different from a singer who has had something "go wrong" with their biology I don't know, but it's a very real situation and not something I would hold against a horse (as I think about some truly good horses who have had physical problems ruin their careers or even result in their breakdowns on the track).

[dilanesp]

Unless you're the kind of handicapper who gives "extra points" to multi-surface runners, like Lava Man, Einstein, Awesome Gem, Sidney's Candy, Fanny Freud, Evening Jewel, Tizqueena, Zardana (who beat Rachel Alexandra@FG), Zenyatta, Mine That Bird, etc.

"Can run on anything", to me, denotes a superior athlete who will do what they do w/out excuses as to surfaces.

And yeah, MTB was never quite right in VIR due to needing throat surgery, and didn't seem to ever be the same after he had it. How that is different from a singer who has had something "go wrong" with their biology I don't know, but it's a very real situation and not something I would hold against a horse (as I think about some truly good horses who have had physical problems ruin their careers or even result in their breakdowns on the track).

Round Table and Riva Ridge famously hated off tracks. I wouldn't bet against either of them on a surface they liked.

[clicknow]

Round Table and Riva Ridge famously hated off tracks.

I consider off tracks to be different from surface distinctions that include omni surface stars, i.e. can run on turf, AW, dirt. Off tracks is a whole 'nother distinction.

[clicknow]

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...


Actually, this doesn't indicate that he was spent.

Reading over the years about equine physiology, and basically:

Post-exercise respiratory rate not a reliable indicator of fitness. The respiratory tract is an important avenue for heat loss in the horse and following exercise is related to the horse’s body temperature.......this is why they douse horses with water to perform whole-body cooling since that is the kind of high recovery cooling a horse needs after a race.

The thing that handicappers will never know, and it's a real shame since there are so many measurement tools out there, is that unless the trainer is doing high-tech (hopefully they are?) monitoring ----- like Mike De Kock did with Mubtaajih and all his other horses (V02, lactate thresholds, heart rate/recovery heart rates, red cell volume or lactate thresholds, or whatever the heck he was measuring with his software because he could not be all over the world at the same time and these reports got sent to his desktop so he could plan next phase of training for the horse) there is no way for the handicapper to *GUESS* what these readings are before or after a race.

Heavy breathing is actually not one of the bad signs, as it turns out. It may indicate effort, which also isn't a bad sign.

Just not an exact correspondence with the human athlete.

[dilanesp]

I consider off tracks to be different from surface distinctions that include omni surface stars, i.e. can run on turf, AW, dirt. Off tracks is a whole 'nother distinction.

Cigar hated grass. You didn't want to bet against him on dirt.

[papillon]

The guy is just trolling at this point.

I absolutely am not.

That's all of you've got, right? Anybody questions your subjective "reality" and they're a troll? Call in Pace Advantage because CJ got his feelings hurt, better ban 'em.

Justify's times are franking each other and your explanations to deny that keep racking up "buts." Occam is slitting his wrists with his razor right now. You still want to say beating Bolt, slayer of NW2 Solomini, hasn't won a race since September Bolt, is a feat? Is a measure of anything? You really want to claim that the clusterf*ck that was this year's derby is indicative of anything, other than that the 2-3 path were the only place to be unless you were Bravazo, who is a complete mystery?

Is Jerry Brown trolling? Beyer? Bris? All the regulars at TG?

You know what they say to Justify groupies like you CJ over at TG? People can never handle that a champion can be ordinary and unremarkable.

There is a really serious accusation I could lay at your feet, and given that you refuse to adjust your pace figures for the Preakness even a smidge, despite three of the four jocks, who crossed the line within a length of Justify saying the pace was slow, and that both Tenfold's jock and Bravazo's said they were on Justify's hip from the half on, despite the chart's "5 lengths back pulled out of its ass notation," coupled with your obsession with calling anyone who refuses to use your particular figures "trolls," is beginning to seem right on the money.

Question: Why should anyone take a grown man seriously, whose profession is to ostensibly offer objective appraisals of horse performances to aid in gamblers' fortune telling, who after the Derby immediately runs to the internet to mock some silly person? Any chance I would take you seriously was killed after that. In most professions, it would get you fired.

Why are you so invested in this proping up this horse's stud value, because right now that is all you are doing?

And yeah, I realize Pace Advantage is going to boot me for this.


PS: The jokeys are trolls? Liars? Dellusional?

All hail CJ master of the PaceAdvantage echo chamber.

[NY BRED]

one point about Justify and the competition;

it would appear from pace/speed figures that Justify's Preakness win
was his slowest race to date.

I think most of us would agree a muddy/sloppy surface presents zero issue
to Justify.

That said, on 5/29, 10 days after the Preakness win, Justify breezed 46.4,
fastest work of 43 horses.

Regardless of who those other horses were,their class etc.., this maintenance
work, followed by a 5fg work at Churchill of 101.2 (9th of 15 other horses),
signals to me Justify is more than ready to face his competition;


one last fact; aside from Gronkowski, none of his competition has ever won
carrying 126 lbs, and this import has won with 135 lbs.

I always toss competition from overseas, would hate to be wrong
on this one, and still maintain Justify wins this race.


:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

[dilanesp]

one point about Justify and the competition;

it would appear from pace/speed figures that Justify's Preakness win
was his slowest race to date.

I think most of us would agree a muddy/sloppy surface presents zero issue
to Justify.

That said, on 5/29, 10 days after the Preakness win, Justify breezed 46.4,
fastest work of 43 horses.

Regardless of who those other horses were,their class etc.., this maintenance
work, followed by a 5fg work at Churchill of 101.2 (9th of 15 other horses),
signals to me Justify is more than ready to face his competition;


one last fact; aside from Gronkowski, none of his competition has ever won
carrying 126 lbs, and this import has won with 135 lbs.

I always toss competition from overseas, would hate to be wrong
on this one, and still maintain Justify wins this race.


:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

It's not impossible. Go and Go came over from Ireland and won the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, this doesn't indicate that he was spent.

Reading over the years about equine physiology, and basically:

Post-exercise respiratory rate not a reliable indicator of fitness. The respiratory tract is an important avenue for heat loss in the horse and following exercise is related to the horse’s body temperature.......this is why they douse horses with water to perform whole-body cooling since that is the kind of high recovery cooling a horse needs after a race.

The thing that handicappers will never know, and it's a real shame since there are so many measurement tools out there, is that unless the trainer is doing high-tech (hopefully they are?) monitoring ----- like Mike De Kock did with Mubtaajih and all his other horses (V02, lactate thresholds, heart rate/recovery heart rates, red cell volume or lactate thresholds, or whatever the heck he was measuring with his software because he could not be all over the world at the same time and these reports got sent to his desktop so he could plan next phase of training for the horse) there is no way for the handicapper to *GUESS* what these readings are before or after a race.

Heavy breathing is actually not one of the bad signs, as it turns out. It may indicate effort, which also isn't a bad sign.

Just not an exact correspondence with the human athlete.Interesting. THANK YOU for that. Good stuff. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I absolutely am not.

That's all of you've got, right? Anybody questions your subjective "reality" and they're a troll? Call in Pace Advantage because CJ got his feelings hurt, better ban 'em.Name the last person banned from the horse racing section of this board...

****ing fantasy land some of you live in with all this banning bullshit. Hell, I didn't even ban Denny...:pound:

[PaceAdvantage]

And yeah, I realize Pace Advantage is going to boot me for this.L U L Z

[PaceAdvantage]

PS: The jokeys are trolls? Liars? Dellusional?In some cases, this would definitely be the trifecta.

Keep slaying it papillon...:lol:

[clicknow]

Unless you're the kind of handicapper who gives "extra points" to multi-surface runners, like Lava Man, Einstein, Awesome Gem, Sidney's Candy, Fanny Freud, Evening Jewel, Tizqueena, Zardana (who beat Rachel Alexandra@FG), Zenyatta, Mine That Bird, etc.

"Can run on anything", to me, denotes a superior athlete who will do what they do w/out excuses as to surfaces.

Looks like Gronkowsi is an omni-surface runner....can do turf, AW, dirt.

I believe that ability allowed him to run 2nd in the BEL stakes --- He was able to take to dirt and dirt at Deep Sandy no less.

A versatile horse to be sure.

[GMB@BP]

L U L Z

I am not sure we have seen this person since the race?

[cj]

I absolutely am not.

That's all of you've got, right? Anybody questions your subjective "reality" and they're a troll? Call in Pace Advantage because CJ got his feelings hurt, better ban 'em.

Justify's times are franking each other and your explanations to deny that keep racking up "buts." Occam is slitting his wrists with his razor right now. You still want to say beating Bolt, slayer of NW2 Solomini, hasn't won a race since September Bolt, is a feat? Is a measure of anything? You really want to claim that the clusterf*ck that was this year's derby is indicative of anything, other than that the 2-3 path were the only place to be unless you were Bravazo, who is a complete mystery?

Is Jerry Brown trolling? Beyer? Bris? All the regulars at TG?

You know what they say to Justify groupies like you CJ over at TG? People can never handle that a champion can be ordinary and unremarkable.

There is a really serious accusation I could lay at your feet, and given that you refuse to adjust your pace figures for the Preakness even a smidge, despite three of the four jocks, who crossed the line within a length of Justify saying the pace was slow, and that both Tenfold's jock and Bravazo's said they were on Justify's hip from the half on, despite the chart's "5 lengths back pulled out of its ass notation," coupled with your obsession with calling anyone who refuses to use your particular figures "trolls," is beginning to seem right on the money.

Question: Why should anyone take a grown man seriously, whose profession is to ostensibly offer objective appraisals of horse performances to aid in gamblers' fortune telling, who after the Derby immediately runs to the internet to mock some silly person? Any chance I would take you seriously was killed after that. In most professions, it would get you fired.

Why are you so invested in this proping up this horse's stud value, because right now that is all you are doing?

And yeah, I realize Pace Advantage is going to boot me for this.


PS: The jokeys are trolls? Liars? Dellusional?

All hail CJ master of the PaceAdvantage echo chamber.

How'd this work out for you?

[Tom]

He bet Indy!~:pound: