2018 Preakness Post Positions & ML Odds

[SecretAgentMan]

1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 12-1

2. Lone Sailor, Tom Amoss, Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1

3. Sporting Chance, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

4. Diamond King, John Servis, Javier Castellano, 30-1

5. Good Magic, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 3-1

6. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 20-1

7. Justify, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 1-2

8. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 20-1

[Hoops McCann]

lucky number :7:

again

[Fightingirish51195]

Sporting chance is going to gun

[GMB@BP]

Sporting chance is going to gun

That would be the ideal thing for the favorite, he can then track him and not have to work to much about being pushed, I guess Bravazo could move up 3 wide early, a death move but you never know.

[ldiatone]

i like QUIP:ThmbUp:

[clicknow]

Only way to play this is as part of a pick, but I don't play Pimlico and don't really feel like capping the whole card.

I'm going to make 2 really cheap wagers.

One exacta where Good Magic plays Exaggerator and Bravazo plays Oxbow (keys). (lightning stiking in same place twice deal).

The other is a pedigree wet track angle I'm playing around with: box justify, quip, tenfold and good magic, and hope the 2nd horse isn't chalky.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Making 1 bet, and 1 bet only playing against the 1/2 chalk with a bad hoof and the 3/1 second choice who has been near max effort in back to back races. Looking for chaos with a small bet.



$4 Ex :1::2:/:1::2::4::8: ($24)

[f2tornado]

I’m betting the race light. On paper it’s a race I should hammer but I have a knack of screwing up the Preakness. I’ll start with $4 tri :5::7:/:5::7:/:1::2::4: =$24. Maybe a $1 version flipping the place and show horses =$6. I’ll add :6::8: to bottom of 50 cent super play =$12. I will take one mild $8 swing at the Hi5. Maybe play small exacta with :4: under the chalks. I could see that one pop at this distance and could be there if one of the favorites misfires. I’ll also play $4 Sara Street over the :5::7: BES/Preakness double =$8. Cap it off with a $10 win bet on the :5: which is refundable if he comes in second couresty of TwinSpires promo.

[PaceMasterT]

Sporting chance is going to gun

Or, more likely he sits in the gate after it opens and refuses to run. :popcorn:

[Tom]

1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 12-1


Shades of Deputed Testamony?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ex/Tri/Super

:7: over :1::2::5::8:

I want Justify to win so it will make the Belmont more interesting.

[MadVindication]

I like Bravazo at 8. Bravazo did well covering ground in the derby. Justify will be out of the way.

I like Tenfold at 6.

I'm liking DK for his E/P running style and post between sporting chance and GM. I'm going to bet him in some way. I think he's a better chance than Quip. I don't like the rail spot and early runners in this race with this field. And I looooove E/P long shots with a good late pace figure. I think DK could thwart LS from hitting 3rd or 4th. But Tenfold has the better late pace rating. So with TF and DK I'm leaning toward LS not hitting the super.

Going to narrow down some tri and super bets and have my favourite ones as at least $1 bets. Spending less than 40$ on this.

Not personally sold on Good Magic getting 2nd but it's high chance so will bet some exacta boxing him with Justify but want to figure some tri's and supers with the long shots to place as well.

[clicknow]

I like Bravazo at 8. Bravazo did well covering ground in the derby.

I remember the reasoning I used to pick Oxbow, watching race replays ---and esp. his rounding the last turn at CDX in the Derby. I should have hit the ATM that day for the Preakness, I was quite sure that he would run 1st or 2nd.

So that's why I have Bravazo playing Oxbow in this race as posted above....similar pedigree, similar campaigns, etc. But again, it's lightning striking same place type of wager. In other words, a real reach.

One thing I give OP horses is that they are pretty fit after coming off that track whether they win there or not.

[MadVindication]

Or, more likely he sits in the gate after it opens and refuses to run. :popcorn:

I like his inconsistencies. If he fancies running that day he will beat Quip and Lone Sailor :headbanger:

[MadVindication]

So that's why I have Bravazo playing Oxbow in this race as posted above....similar pedigree, similar campaigns, etc. But again, it's lightning striking same place type of wager. In other words, a real reach.


Yes, good reason to bet him as any others. Better reason to bet him as an upset pick to beat GM or, for the hell of it, Justify. At least we've seen he can significantly improve, unlike more consistent runners. Hopefully his odds don't shorten much. It's funny to me that Quip is the mid odds horse here.

[clicknow]

Yes, good reason to bet him as any others. Better reason to bet him as an upset pick to beat GM or, for the hell of it, Justify. At least we've seen he can significantly improve, unlike more consistent runners. Hopefully his odds don't shorten much. It's funny to me that Quip is the mid odds horse here.

Not a big GM fan. But I've already covered him in my wet/pedigree tri/super box posted above..... but Tenfold is the horse who is Cherry Wine / Tale of Verve for me here....has certain things in common that I look for. Hopefully, Asmussen has worked on him a little bit since his last.

I will build some exactas around Tenfold

[GMB@BP]

Is Ortiz sending, he said he has a strategy in mind:

“I will have to turn it into a match race. It looks like a match race on paper. You can’t give Justify an inch.”

[clicknow]

When is the last time the Preakness was won by the favorite with the 2nd Favorite coming in 2nd?

Must be at least 30 years or so?

[Spalding No!]

When is the last time the Preakness was won by the favorite with the 2nd Favorite coming in 2nd?

Must be at least 30 years or so?
Not sure, but in the last 31 years, the Derby winner and runner-up repeated the same placings 5 times in the Preakness.

[Spalding No!]

Is Ortiz sending, he said he has a strategy in mind:
Is he taking advice from Victor Espinoza or something? Good grief.

[SharpCat]

When is the last time the Preakness was won by the favorite with the 2nd Favorite coming in 2nd?

Must be at least 30 years or so?

37 years to be exact. Pleasant Colony over Bold Ego in the 1981 Preakness.

[SharpCat]

Is Ortiz sending, he said he has a strategy in mind:

I think he's tries to get outside of Justify and goes for an aggressive early move at some point down the backside or as they enter the turn.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/997443460985634816

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, if Good Magic beats Justify, it will be because of Justify's bruise on his hoof......at least that's the excuse they might use.

[clicknow]

37 years to be exact. Pleasant Colony over Bold Ego in the 1981 Preakness.

thank you, figured it was at least 30 years, but turns out closer to 40 years :)

[GMB@BP]

I think he's tries to get outside of Justify and goes for an aggressive early move at some point down the backside or as they enter the turn.

thats going to be hard, I doubt Mike puts him anywhere near the rail given how that track played yesterday.

[SecretAgentMan]

Anybody have a link to live odds on the Preakness like they had for Kentucky derby the day before?

[MadVindication]

Not a big GM fan. But I've already covered him in my wet/pedigree tri/super box posted above..... but Tenfold is the horse who is Cherry Wine / Tale of Verve for me here....has certain things in common that I look for. Hopefully, Asmussen has worked on him a little bit since his last.

I will build some exactas around Tenfold

It makes more sense to me to bet against Good M finishing in second/third than it does Justify finishing first. Can have some decent odds with that. I will do both tho. Depends on the odds if I will use Quip and Lone Sailor more or just gamble with Sporting Chance more.

So far:

$2 Trifecta:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

Justify/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

$1 super:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, LS, Quip/Good Magic

Justify/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Good Magic

[MadVindication]

To bet, or not to bet, on Good Magic not filling the super, that is my real gambling dilemma. But I'm enjoying it.

[Skanoochies]

With Winstar Farms and China Horse Group having ownership in Quip and Justify who knows how they are going to play it.
Send Quip to go after other early speed and let Justify relax early?

[SecretAgentMan]

With Winstar Farms and China Horse Group having ownership in Quip and Justify who knows how they are going to play it.
Send Quip to go after other early speed and let Justify relax early?




If Justify is healthy & has no foot problem, he should be behind the pace setter IMO.

[GMB@BP]

If Justify is healthy & has no foot problem, he should be behind the pace setter IMO.

He has an outside post, unless he misses the break (always possible) he can rate or just sit outside anyone who does crazy stuff.

If Quip somehow were to hook Justify after he breaks on top that will be the last horse from winstar that rider and trainer ever see.

[Spalding No!]

He has an outside post, unless he misses the break (always possible) he can rate or just sit outside anyone who does crazy stuff.

If Quip somehow were to hook Justify after he breaks on top that will be the last horse from winstar that rider and trainer ever see.
Seems like the simplest plan is for Quip to play the role of Promises Fulfilled (who drew inside in the Derby). Justify can simply flank that one at whatever pace Quip can set (he's set slow paces in his routes, but his sprint debut seemed to have a sharp pace) and overtake him as Smith sees fit. If Justify moves away easily, I doubt Quip will be asked to stay with him, but rather concede the lead and try and hold on for a placing.

The wrench(es) in that plan are Sporting Chance and maybe Diamond King if they show speed. They might keep Justify wide on the first turn, and in the case of Sporting Chance, wreak havoc if Justify can't clear him before the stretch.

This kind of setup might actually benefit Good Magic as well, if he is ridden patiently. If Good Magic can secure the inside a length or two off the first flight, he can simply wait for Justify to move away from these inferior pace rivals and have a clearer shot at the favorite before the head of the stretch. In the Derby, Good Magic had to shift out and go around Bolt D'Oro, losing a critical length or two around the far turn. Ideally here--though he might have to split some tiring pace rivals--he should be able to engage Justify a little bit earlier than he did at Churchill (when Justify was in full gear). He might have more in the tank, too, if the pace is not as demanding as in the Derby.

It might open up a whole new can of worms if something can actually range up and look Justify in the eye at the top of the stretch, as opposed to the heel-nipping nuisances that Justify shrugged off in his last two starts.

[Fightingirish51195]

Sporting chance has a legitimate chance to win this race. Legitimate enough to bet him. If he decides to run, he will like the mud

[SecretAgentMan]

Other than the weather, the backstretch buzz was with the early odds, based on a pool of just more than $400,000 May 18.

Predictably, Justify was at even-money, but was followed by the Steve Asmussen-trained Tenfold at 2-1, with Derby runner-up Good Magic at 9-1. Other early odds were Quip, 7-2; Lone Sailor, 30-1; Sporting Chance, 19-1; Diamond King, 70-1; and Bravazo, 19-1.

[GMB@BP]

Other than the weather, the backstretch buzz was with the early odds, based on a pool of just more than $400,000 May 18.

Predictably, Justify was at even-money, but was followed by the Steve Asmussen-trained Tenfold at 2-1, with Derby runner-up Good Magic at 9-1. Other early odds were Quip, 7-2; Lone Sailor, 30-1; Sporting Chance, 19-1; Diamond King, 70-1; and Bravazo, 19-1.

The doubles show the odds a bit more were expecting.

[Blenheim]

Interesting. No works for Justify, Good Magic and Lone Sailor, not even a blow out, but a nice 4fl in 50.3 for Calumet’s Lukas trained Bravazo. I figure that Derby was particular taxing and the horses don’t need the work or one work would deplete any stored reserve energy.

“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” (Quinn) Justify has delivered four peak efforts – he is pushing the envelope; his last effort showed a decline in the BRIS speed figure, couple that with a bad left rear, he can’t be considered 100% and looks vulnerable. Good Magic has delivered three peak efforts – he too is pushing the envelope; his last effort showed a BRIS one point above his previous two performances; he hasn’t matured and improved as a three-year-old, he looks vulnerable.

Who better to beat a swifty than a swifty?

I think either Quip or Tenfold will likely upset here. Not so much Quip as it appears he has hit his high form number w/that BRIS 98, but Tenfold looks interesting. Three nice works; DI and CD fits the average for the track; he will likely improve just enough to run these worn and tired guys down.

:6:

[SecretAgentMan]

Updated Odds:


1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 9-1

2. Lone Sailor, Tom Amoss, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1

3. Sporting Chance, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 18-1

4. Diamond King, John Servis, Javier Castellano, 15-1

5. Good Magic, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 5-1

6. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 21-1

7. Justify, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 1-2

8. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 12-1

[clicknow]

It makes more sense to me to bet against Good M finishing in second/third than it does Justify finishing first. Can have some decent odds with that. I will do both tho. Depends on the odds if I will use Quip and Lone Sailor more or just gamble with Sporting Chance more.

So far:

$2 Trifecta:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

Justify/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

$1 super:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, LS, Quip/Good Magic

Justify/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Good Magic

Hope you played your $2 trifectas :jump: $296.60 for the kind of day it's been is a pretty decent haul for a $2 trifecta.

I built most of my wagers around Tenfold running 2nd, not 3rd, as I posted earlier.....and he almost did! But if I had not had a show wager on him, I would have gone home broke :p I was pretty excited when it looked like he was coming like a freight train there at the end, would have really boosted my exotics. :)

[MadVindication]

I'm happy the race played out like I thought. Figured GM wouldn't hold up to finish 2 or 3 trying to run with Justify. And betting against him just made sense to me. When I saw Bravazo looking in good form, like on KD day, I knew he'd run well. And I actually won some money! woot. Now off to my local track for the evening. :jump:

Really glad that the jocks and horses came out of the race safe and sound despite the weather.