( Don't Laugh) - Is anyone considering Quip?

[TheGarMan]

Quip logged his final work this morning at Keeneland.

He has 3 wins in 5 lifetime starts, losing only to Magnum Moon last out in Arkansas.

He has been pointed toward the Preakness for a while.

While I think Justify and Good Magic are a cut above, my thinking is you got to consider Quip for a piece, maybe more. (Exotics at a minimum?) -

Thoughts on Quip?

[TiffaniO]

Quip logged his final work this morning at Keeneland.

He has 3 wins in 5 lifetime starts, losing only to Magnum Moon last out in Arkansas.

He has been pointed toward the Preakness for a while.

While I think Justify and Good Magic are a cut above, my thinking is you got to consider Quip for a piece, maybe more. (Exotics at a minimum?) -

Thoughts on Quip?

3rd at best... and I doubt that... he was life and death to beat World of Trouble... and running second to Magnum Moon hardly makes me think any higher of him.

But imo it’s a race not with playing unless you plan on hammering a straight exacta or tri.

[TheGarMan]

3rd at best... and I doubt that... he was life and death to beat World of Trouble... and running second to Magnum Moon hardly makes me think any higher of him.

But imo it’s a race not with playing unless you plan on hammering a straight exacta or tri.

Thanks. I agree with your points, but we are attending the race, and want to have some extra "stake in the game" so to speak. (I can't just "pass" :D)

I'm probably out stretching for a longshot that just isn't there.

The most obvious bet that I am really trying to look past for now is the standard Justify / Good Magic exacta. I'll play it if I have to, but I want to do all my due diligence first :D - A Justy / GM/ Quip tri may get me started.

Should be an interesting week, with everyone and their mother searching for value under the "Big 2".

[jocko699]

Thanks. I agree with your points, but we are attending the race, and want to have some extra "stake in the game" so to speak. (I can't just "pass" :D)

I'm probably out stretching for a longshot that just isn't there.

The most obvious bet that I am really trying to look past for now is the standard Justify / Good Magic exacta. I'll play it if I have to, but I want to do all my due diligence first :D - A Justy / GM/ Quip tri may get me started.

Should be an interesting week, with everyone and their mother searching for value under the "Big 2".

Well if you are looking for a play I would suggest Sporting Chance. He has the potential for some good stuff but is empty between the ears.

[letswastemoney]

Justify will discourage every horse on the front end not named Good Magic. If some quirky longshot comes into play, it will probably be a closer.

[PoloUK6108]

I'm buying Quip somewhat. He's pointed to this race, he's micro managed by very bright French trainer that works all his horses himself. He gets his French jockey that's absolutely sizzling on horses that want to be up front. Stuff happens when they've linked up before. Why not?

[GMB@BP]

Justify will discourage every horse on the front end not named Good Magic. If some quirky longshot comes into play, it will probably be a closer.

Maybe Chad can get Javier to act as a rabbit and send a hopeless horse?

not sure how good magic can do the dirty work and win.

[letswastemoney]

Maybe Chad can get Javier to act as a rabbit and send a hopeless horse?

not sure how good magic can do the dirty work and win.I think Lukas stated somewhere that Sporting Chance will go to the front, so he can do some dirty work. Not sure who else is brave enough. Diamond King perhaps.

[MadVindication]

Runaway Ghost is my upset pick, for the sake of making one.

[GMB@BP]

I think Lukas stated somewhere that Sporting Chance will go to the front, so he can do some dirty work. Not sure who else is brave enough. Diamond King perhaps.

maybe, he refused to breeze today, so there may be something physically wrong with him.

I hope justify draws well so if someone gets goof he has some options.

[MadVindication]

Runaway Ghost is my upset pick, for the sake of making one.

I'm not sure if he's running tho? :confused:

[Dream_Police]

Remember when Pharoah won the Preakness(in the monsoon) the tri was pretty healthy.

[Wiley]

Any reason Quip and Justify won't be coupled?

Looks like the same owners groups for both colts. Not sure what the Maryland racing rules are for couplings though.

Kind of an interesting placing for this colt in this race, maybe these owners think Justify's hoof issue is a bigger concern than what connections are making it out to be.

Quip is a nice looking, athletic colt who has shown a lot of gameness in his last two. Should stalk and pounce, but looks talent wise, a cut below the top two here. If Justify comes into the race sub par, maybe be gets a piece with Good Magic.

Brisset, Quip's trainer, had Justify early on before he was sent to Baffert, so he should know what he is up against.

[Wiley]

It looks like in Maryland, couplings are not used for wagering in stakes races for entries with the same ownership, so I see why Justify and Quip will not be coupled.

[clicknow]

Thoughts on Quip?

Seems like many of the horses from the jockey club stakes turn out to be disappointments. Maybe a breakthrough will occur.

[MadVindication]

maybe, he refused to breeze today, so there may be something physically wrong with him.



GTK. Where did you find that info?

[clicknow]

GTK. Where did you find that info?

all over twitter
clockers, jay privman, etc.

SC has always been like a puppy who hasn't grown into his feet yet. I had made comments several times watching him work at OP and also in the paddock.

[cj]

GTK. Where did you find that info?

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/995675480324956160

[clicknow]

horse like flameaway would have been good in here.

[papillon]

Quip logged his final work this morning at Keeneland.

He has 3 wins in 5 lifetime starts, losing only to Magnum Moon last out in Arkansas.

He has been pointed toward the Preakness for a while.

While I think Justify and Good Magic are a cut above, my thinking is you got to consider Quip for a piece, maybe more. (Exotics at a minimum?) -

Thoughts on Quip?

When owners feel they have a TC winner in a race, whose current value is likely $25 million now, having deposed the better bred, better conformed, $3 million former prince of the Scat Dadies in the war for the best Scat Daddy replacement stallion, why would they seriously risk an Orb or a Nyquist or an Always Dreaming scenario with competition from their own horse?

They don't couple, they should, but they don't, but it seems to me if you are playing Quip, you have to box him with Justify, couple them yourself as it were.

Rich people aren't good sports. They're John Paul Getty refusing to pay his grandson's ransom.

If I'm Chad Brown and I draw anywhere near Quip, I scratch, and blame the weather.

[Spalding No!]

When owners feel they have a TC winner in a race, whose current value is likely $25 million now, having deposed the better bred, better conformed, $3 million former prince of the Scat Dadies in the war for the best Scat Daddy replacement stallion, why would they seriously risk an Orb or a Nyquist or an Always Dreaming scenario with competition from their own horse?
Because they can also win the war for the best Distorted Humor replacement stallion...

They don't couple, they should, but they don't, but it seems to me if you are playing Quip, you have to box him with Justify, couple them yourself as it were.
I don't think people who bet Quip at 8-1 odds are going to think they got robbed if Justify wins at 3-5 odds.

And I'm not sure if anyone has ever bet a coupled entry because they thought they were going to run 1-2...They'd still have to come up with the 3rd place horse in an exacta...

Rich people aren't good sports. They're John Paul Getty refusing to pay his grandson's ransom.
I don't know if Jean Paul Getty was being a "poor sport" for not playing ball with some kidnappers, but fortunately kinfolk Pope John Paul II and Led Zeppelin bassist (and former sea captain) John Paul Jones ponied up to set the youngster free...

If I'm Chad Brown and I draw anywhere near Quip, I scratch, and blame the weather.
This would make much more sense if you traded Quip for Sporting Chance...

[MadVindication]

I'm probably leaving out Quip. I think Tenfold will like the outside post.

My superfun super so far is:

Bravazo/Good Magic/Justify
Bravazo/Good Magic/Tenfold
Bravazo/Tenfold/Lone Sailor
Bravazo/Tenfold/Lone Sailor

I will prob split into 2 tickets one as a Justify key and a bet against with justify in the 2 spot. Im not wagering online so will see how the otb odds are on the 19th. It's complicated things for me since Contreras is on Sporting Chance. But combine that with SC's bad form and refusal to breeze that when it nears post time the odds may persuade me to play him in on a low combo super with Just. and GM. Especially if Bravazo is short.

Your plays?

[f2tornado]

I'm probably leaving out Quip.

If it's a Justify/GM exacta with Quip hitting the show then your trifecta might pay 10-1. I'll add Diamond King and Lone Sailor to the bottom and even then it might only generate 20-1. Maybe save most of my bankroll for the super and Hi5.

[clicknow]

maybe, he refused to breeze today, so there may be something physically wrong with him.

He's just like his sire. Nothing at all physically wrong with him. I always thought horses who called the shots like Tiznow (they do what they want when they want to) needed a LOT more stimulation than standing around in a stall all day. Most of the time he raced like he was bored out of his mind. Seems similar to Sporting Chance. I wish they would wait on this one...more of a late developer

[Spalding No!]

He's just like his sire. Nothing at all physically wrong with him. I always thought horses who called the shots like Tiznow (they do what they want when they want to) needed a LOT more stimulation than standing around in a stall all day. Most of the time he raced like he was bored out of his mind. Seems similar to Sporting Chance. I wish they would wait on this one...more of a late developer
One of Sporting Chance's other "quirky" episodes (last year's Hopeful) was followed up with arthroscopic surgery on a knee joint about a week later so questioning his physical condition is not unfounded.

And his sire Tiznow suffered a veritable litany of injuries during his career so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that the recalcitrant behavior and suspect physical condition are indeed linked.

[MadVindication]

If it's a Justify/GM exacta with Quip hitting the show then your trifecta might pay 10-1. I'll add Diamond King and Lone Sailor to the bottom and even then it might only generate 20-1. Maybe save most of my bankroll for the super and Hi5.

I think Lone Sailor is more likely to hit second than Quip is to show. Why Quip? What do you estimate the super hi 5 could pay?

LS makes sense being the only closer type running in a race that could be a fast pace for every horse but Justify. But I expect short odds on him as well.

I choose Tenfold considering him, DK and Quip are so similar yet Quip has shorter odds which will probably end up 6-1 or something. And DK has post 2 which I don't think will help in this field with Bravazo at 1 and Justify going for the rail, GM stalking and Sporting Chance potentially crashing in early.

Sporting Chance is the most likely horse to go in there with longer odds. I really wanted to see Contrares ride Bravazo but if he can make something of Sporting Chance that will be worth my while in action bets. So long as the weather is decent.

[MadVindication]

One of Sporting Chance's other "quirky" episodes (last year's Hopeful) was followed up with arthroscopic surgery on a knee joint about a week later so questioning his physical condition is not unfounded.

And his sire Tiznow suffered a veritable litany of injuries during his career so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that the recalcitrant behavior and suspect physical condition are indeed linked.

So how lenient are vets when deciding if a horse is good to go?

[Robert Fischer]

Quip has had some good trips. Preakness is a good enough stage to offset that, if you think he's a contender.

Tough race for value. Top 2 are much the best. Justify is a clear best if Baffert has him near 100%. Brown perked up a lot once he saw how the two big horses came out of the Derby.

Upside??
Tenfold- Certainly room for more improvement. He ran close to Quip's performance while testing the waters last.

Bravazo- His Derby really changes the complexion of his form. He needs favorites to fail to get into the exacta, and he needs a forward favoring trip to hold off the stretch-runners in a fight for 3rd best.

Lone Sailor- Has to improve from top-of-the-stretch through the wire. Somewhat tactical. Had a good enough trip in the Derby. Had to wait a few jumps behind traffic, but that should preserve a late run. Saved ground. No excuse that he didn't beat Bravazo to the wire. If there is a late-favoring raceflow, he appears capable of capitalizing.

[f2tornado]

I think Lone Sailor is more likely to hit second than Quip is to show. Why Quip? What do you estimate the super hi 5 could pay?

LS makes sense being the only closer type running in a race that could be a fast pace for every horse but Justify. But I expect short odds on him as well.

I choose Tenfold considering him, DK and Quip are so similar yet Quip has shorter odds which will probably end up 6-1 or something. And DK has post 2 which I don't think will help in this field with Bravazo at 1 and Justify going for the rail, GM stalking and Sporting Chance potentially crashing in early.

Sporting Chance is the most likely horse to go in there with longer odds. I really wanted to see Contrares ride Bravazo but if he can make something of Sporting Chance that will be worth my while in action bets. So long as the weather is decent.

If it is straight ML then it's only going to pay 100-1 or so but if you have a decent price underneath then you might see 300-1. Consider The 2014 Hi5 with Chrome on top paid about 1200-1 but the second and third favorites were flipped on the board. There were also 10 horses that year versus 8 this year. Perhaps a better potential comparison with a Justify/GM is the 2015 Florida Derby where there were 9 horses and the top 4 were almost straight chalk. Upstart was an even money favorite finishing behind 9/5 Materiality. The bomber of the board did hit the 5th place spot which may have spiced up the 258-1 Hi5 payout. The 7 horse Santa Anita Derby Hi5 this year paid 60-1 which finished in order of the tote aside from Instilled Regard coming in 4th behind Core Beliefs.

I'm not going to try and cash a monster ticket this renewal but if I can potentially make a play for a few hundred bucks without a large outlay then it's a logical option. I think Diamond King has the most upside of the other contenders. He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x and gets Castellano. I might even play him under the chalk just in case one of the chalks does falter (See Orb, Nyquist, Always Dreaming).