Bolt d'Oro to Preakness... if track stays dry...

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Ruis_puts_Bolt_dOro_under_consideration_for_Preakn ess_2018_123

He faded badly in the Derby. I expected a much better performance.

[dilanesp]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Ruis_puts_Bolt_dOro_under_consideration_for_Preakn ess_2018_123

He faded badly in the Derby. I expected a much better performance.

Field size may be critical. He gets himself in trouble in big fields.

I am ultimately skeptical of his chances on the win end because Justify dominated him in the SA Derby and he had no excuses there.

[SecretAgentMan]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Ruis_puts_Bolt_dOro_under_consideration_for_Preakn ess_2018_123

He faded badly in the Derby. I expected a much better performance.




Still 10 days out, but the weather channel stated rain for Preakness week, Tuesday, Wed, Thurs, Friday & possibly Preakness day on Saturday.......hopefully it clears up & the forecasters are wrong like they usually are, we shall see.

[PowerUpPaynter]

if bolt and good magic go might be able to get 3/5 on Justify

[SecretAgentMan]

if bolt and good magic go might be able to get 3/5 on Justify



If they both run, you might see 4/5, especially with all the lame foot problem in the media.

[GMB@BP]

Field size may be critical. He gets himself in trouble in big fields.

I am ultimately skeptical of his chances on the win end because Justify dominated him in the SA Derby and he had no excuses there.

horse stuff happens though and the best horse gets beat, and he has at least run fast races. I see no reason to keep the horse in the barn and fully support running the horse.

[letswastemoney]

I think he's only good up to 9 furlongs. Not buying the wet track excuse.

[TheGarMan]

Jeez,

The twitter link in the article says they are considering running him on the turf at Penn National on Penn MIle Day as a "Plan B"!

That is both amazing and weird.

[lamboguy]

I loved Bolt until he went on the track
He looked pretty sore to me. If Victor shows up on his back you might have a vety possible upset in the Preakness

[Robert Fischer]

He's right there in that 2nd or 3rd 'tier' behind Justify and Good Magic.

Meaning; He's one of the top horses. :ThmbUp:


One of the more 'complex' reads in terms of form.


BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE- Lost enough ground that it wasn't clear whether Bolt or Good Magic ran a better race. Literal form suggested that Bolt disappointed by finishing 3rd by almost 5,-but actual performance difference was negligible.
SAN FELIPE STAKES; inherited poor position after the break, Mike Smith fully exploited superior position on McKinzie and was 'sitting' with a SIGNIFICANT tactical advantage approaching the far turn. Castellano adapted by moving prematurely. Bolt made a bold wide move and Bolt/Castellano fouled McKinzie on that turn. Mike Smith reacted by fouling Bolt repeatedly in the stretch. The tactical advantage issue, and fouls made it nearly impossible to make a precise performance appraisal. Lost in the hoopla =Bolt flattened out a bit late.
SANTA ANITA DERBY - Mike Smith took the initiative after the break by going to the lead in a race that lacked cheap speed, Justify had a huge tactical advantage initially, but lost in the hoopla= Smith/Justify made an error entering the backstretch by getting into the bit too much. This offset some of the tactical advantage, and Bolt ran well but should have capitalized a little more making it closer at the end. He flattened out a bit.
KY DERBY - Bolt ran well but the issue with flattening-out seemed to reach 'CRITICAL MASS' when Pace/Groundloss/Distance/Conditions overwhelmed Bolt.

[GMB@BP]

Mike Smith reacted by fouling Bolt repeatedly in the stretch

thats a stretch, and Bolt about knocked McKinzie over coming out of the turn.

The fact he is looking to cut the horse back as many of his options tells me even his trainer is concerned that he might not want more distance.

[oughtoh]

he needs to put Nakatani back on the horse, but that will never happen.

[dilanesp]

horse stuff happens though and the best horse gets beat, and he has at least run fast races. I see no reason to keep the horse in the barn and fully support running the horse.

Agreed

[cj]

Agreed

Same, but they really let to need this horse relax early and try to make a run late. Trying to keep up with Justify early isn't going to work as we've already seen twice now.

[GMB@BP]

Same, but they really let to need this horse relax early and try to make a run late. Trying to keep up with Justify early isn't going to work as we've already seen twice now.

I think they will try to go for the lead cause they dont think they can catch him.

[cj]

I think they will try to go for the lead cause they dont think they can catch him.

If that is the case they should stay home. I mean, I'd probably try to get the lead racing against Usain Bolt but it isn't going to happen. If trying to keep up with him is a bad plan, what adjective describes trying to outrun him early?

[Rex Phinney]

Trainer is out of his league right now. He is making decisions accordingly.

[GMB@BP]

If that is the case they should stay home. I mean, I'd probably try to get the lead racing against Usain Bolt but it isn't going to happen. If trying to keep up with him is a bad plan, what adjective describes trying to outrun him early?

Just trying to get in their head, they tried to play chaser to no avail so maybe they think trying to be leader.

Could be a really fast pace again.

[Rex Phinney]

Well the fast pace really seemed to affect Justify last out...

I pointed this out before the Derby as well, but I'll do it again, Bolt D'oro has not hit the wire first in a race since September. I cannot understand the hype.

[TheGarMan]

Well, we can't have it both ways.... :D

We can't cry about horses only making a few lifetime starts and the retiring to the shed ....

And then...

Second guess a guy who wants to run his horse in one of the classics...

I look at it this way with BOTH Good Magic & Bolt:

1) Is the horse sound?
2) Is there any ethical or logistical reasons not to run?
3) Neither of those horses will be of much use in the Belmont.
4) They are only 3 year olds once. - Run the Preakness, then rest for the summer.

If you can check the boxes, RUN YOUR HORSE :headbanger:

[chiguy]

Well, we can't have it both ways.... :D

We can't cry about horses only making a few lifetime starts and the retiring to the shed ....

And then...

Second guess a guy who wants to run his horse in one of the classics...

I look at it this way with BOTH Good Magic & Bolt:

1) Is the horse sound?
2) Is there any ethical or logistical reasons not to run?
3) Neither of those horses will of any use in the Belmont.
4) They are only 3 year olds once.

If you can check the boxes, RUN YOUR HORSE :headbanger:

Agree with this 100%. Justify is formidable but at some point do we think he will hit a wall? Ruis might not be making the best decisions but the guy is not a quitter and if he thinks Justify might be weaker coming out of the Derby I would not blame him for taking a shot.

[lamboguy]

Agree with this 100%. Justify is formidable but at some point do we think he will hit a wall? Ruis might not be making the best decisions but the guy is not a quitter and if he thinks Justify might be weaker coming out of the Derby I would not blame him for taking a shot.the medication rules might have major differences between Kentucky and Maryland, the trainer may be able to treat the horse in Maryland for his soreness.

[GMB@BP]

Agree with this 100%. Justify is formidable but at some point do we think he will hit a wall? Ruis might not be making the best decisions but the guy is not a quitter and if he thinks Justify might be weaker coming out of the Derby I would not blame him for taking a shot.

Like I said before, horse stuff happens (bad starts, bad trips, animals are not machines, etc), there is no reason not to run in this race if you have a horse in good condition and some half decent form.

[burnsy]

He's right there in that 2nd or 3rd 'tier' behind Justify and Good Magic.

Meaning; He's one of the top horses. :ThmbUp:


One of the more 'complex' reads in terms of form.


BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE- Lost enough ground that it wasn't clear whether Bolt or Good Magic ran a better race. Literal form suggested that Bolt disappointed by finishing 3rd by almost 5,-but actual performance difference was negligible.
SAN FELIPE STAKES; inherited poor position after the break, Mike Smith fully exploited superior position on McKinzie and was 'sitting' with a SIGNIFICANT tactical advantage approaching the far turn. Castellano adapted by moving prematurely. Bolt made a bold wide move and Bolt/Castellano fouled McKinzie on that turn. Mike Smith reacted by fouling Bolt repeatedly in the stretch. The tactical advantage issue, and fouls made it nearly impossible to make a precise performance appraisal. Lost in the hoopla =Bolt flattened out a bit late.
SANTA ANITA DERBY - Mike Smith took the initiative after the break by going to the lead in a race that lacked cheap speed, Justify had a huge tactical advantage initially, but lost in the hoopla= Smith/Justify made an error entering the backstretch by getting into the bit too much. This offset some of the tactical advantage, and Bolt ran well but should have capitalized a little more making it closer at the end. He flattened out a bit.
KY DERBY - Bolt ran well but the issue with flattening-out seemed to reach 'CRITICAL MASS' when Pace/Groundloss/Distance/Conditions overwhelmed Bolt.


I didn't like this horse for the reasons (excuses) mentioned here and i disagree with some of the points. In the BC Juve Good Magic shipped 3,000 miles as a maiden and beat this horse. Saying the performance difference is "negligible" is a crock because the situation of that race was in favor of Bolt. Plus, the horse has never vindicated that excuse because he really has not won since. its just been a string of more excuses....

Right now, its what i suspected all along. Good Magic is a better horse. Chad was so aggressive with this horse you know he thinks he's got the goods. Maiden placed to Grade 1 Champagne placed, to his first victory in the BC. Right off the bat this horse looks like he means business......meanwhile you have to list "excuses" for this other horse and the BC was like 6 or 7 months ago. I suspected 6 months ago that Good Magic was better than Bolt and its played out that way.

The fact that his connections are floating the idea to cut back speaks volumes. Even they are not sure if he can make the cut and/or the distance. But, to each his own........bet the 2018 version of Dollar Bill...its not my money.

[picojim]

https://twitter.com/MATT_NAK/status/994696111565647872

[classhandicapper]

I agree with CJ.

I used Bolt d'Oro pretty heavily on my tickets (fortunately I also used Justify and Good Magic and managed to win a few dollars).

I thought Justify was obviously the faster and better horse going in. The last thing I wanted Bolt to do was be a chaser against against Justify. His only chance to win was to hope the pace was very fast and Justify got involved in it. Then he could lay off pace in the 2nd flight, make one run, and hope the pace took enough out of Justify to allow him to win. If not, he'd still have a great shot for 2nd or 3rd. The setup was perfect. Smith chose to chase an inferior horse in very fast fractions, but Bolt went up there with him.

I'm not saying he would have won had he laid back. IMO, Justify was absolutely sensational (and Good Magic was better than he's getting credit for too). I just think as long as Justify remains sharp, none of these 3yos is going to outrun him or win a pace battle with him. Their only hope is that he goes off form or he gets used early and they luck into the win.

[dilanesp]

I agree with CJ.

I used Bolt d'Oro pretty heavily on my tickets (fortunately I also used Justify and Good Magic and managed to win a few dollars).

I thought Justify was obviously the faster and better horse going in. The last thing I wanted Bolt to do was be a chaser against against Justify. His only chance to win was to hope the pace was very fast and Justify got involved in it. Then he could lay off pace in the 2nd flight, make one run, and hope the pace took enough out of Justify to allow him to win. If not, he'd still have a great shot for 2nd or 3rd. The setup was perfect. Smith chose to chase an inferior horse in very fast fractions, but Bolt went up there with him.

I'm not saying he would have won had he laid back. IMO, Justify was absolutely sensational (and Good Magic was better than he's getting credit for too). I just think as long as Justify remains sharp, none of these 3yos is going to outrun him or win a pace battle with him. Their only hope is that he goes off form or he gets used early and they luck into the win.

Yeah. The best scenario for Justify getting beat is a Preakness where a horse can play the Exaggerator role while a couple of horses cook Justify the way Nyquist was cooked.

And, of course, Mike Smith is probably smart enough not to get suckered into that sort of speed duel.

[cj]

Yeah. The best scenario for Justify getting beat is a Preakness where a horse can play the Exaggerator role while a couple of horses cook Justify the way Nyquist was cooked.

And, of course, Mike Smith is probably smart enough not to get suckered into that sort of speed duel.

Exaggerator got a horrible ride in the Preakness, he should have won much easier than he did.

[dilanesp]

Exaggerator got a horrible ride in the Preakness, he should have won much easier than he did.

That was the exact same ride that won the Delta Jackpot.

I tend to think Kent understood the horse perfectly.

[Blenheim]

I liked the horse and thought his classicity, experience and running style would help him in the Kentucky, not to mention he ran that blistering 7fl work in 1:24.1 and a nice 4fl in 48.1 - connections said he was "different" and was improving. I thought he was either over worked or would win. I was disappointed he backed out of it in the Kentucky stretch, connections said he took to the track, so no excuses. Just doesn't have it against these swiftys. He is looking to be more and more like a sucker bet.

Let him rest, see what he has maybe for the Belmont or later on . . .

[cj]

That was the exact same ride that won the Delta Jackpot.

I tend to think Kent understood the horse perfectly.

He moved way too early IMO. I guess in retrospect with that field it didn't matter much. Luckily for him the only horse really posing a threat was Cherry Wine, a horse that went 0-9 the rest of his career while never running better than 5th.

[n.c]

if the horse is transferred to Baffert barn, this week. :D

[PowerUpPaynter]

Weather looks like rain so probably no bolt - think they watch the weather report and not enter or ship in and scratch?

[dilanesp]

He moved way too early IMO. I guess in retrospect with that field it didn't matter much. Luckily for him the only horse really posing a threat was Cherry Wine, a horse that went 0-9 the rest of his career while never running better than 5th.

CJ, have you ever seen Exaggerator's Delta Jackpot? He made the same early move. And it worked.

Kent knew that horse. He also wanted to stay on the rail the whole way, which he stated in interviews. We know a lot hete, but I don't think we know as much as Kent does about this strategy issue.

[cj]

CJ, have you ever seen Exaggerator's Delta Jackpot? He made the same early move. And it worked.

Kent knew that horse. He also wanted to stay on the rail the whole way, which he stated in interviews. We know a lot hete, but I don't think we know as much as Kent does about this strategy issue.

As I said in retrospect it didn't matter. That was a bad field. Collected turned out OK much later on. The Delta Jackpot was also a very poor field in retrospect. That move wouldn't have worked against better fields in my opinion. But again, it really doesn't matter. His rides in the Santa Anita Derby and Haskell were much better, again my opinion.

[Robert Fischer]

As I said in retrospect it didn't matter. That was a bad field. Collected turned out OK much later on. The Delta Jackpot was also a very poor field in retrospect. That move wouldn't have worked against better fields in my opinion. But again, it really doesn't matter. His rides in the Santa Anita Derby and Haskell were much better, again my opinion.

Yea that was big-time premature by Kent. :ThmbUp:

Do you have the TimeformUS for that Delta Jackpot pace?

I remember it not only being premature, but fairly 'hot' as well. At least above average.

Exaggerator was cool. Nice horse, but also love when a value-laden horse actually comes through.

[picojim]

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/995691227482910721

[GMB@BP]

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/995691227482910721

This actually does make some sense, i dont think the older horses are a particularly strong lot and he may be better suited for that distance, and since he is owned and trained by Ruis a win here far enhances his value more than a Preakness win.

[cj]

This actually does make some sense, i dont think the older horses are a particularly strong lot and he may be better suited for that distance, and since he is owned and trained by Ruis a win here far enhances his value more than a Preakness win.

Doesn't make a lot of sense if he sticks with Nakatani. That eliminates the weight break.

[Spalding No!]

Doesn't make a lot of sense if he sticks with Nakatani. That eliminates the weight break.
The flip-flopping is getting to be way overboard. The Woody Stephens was a perfect race to "regroup" if that's what the horse needs. Otherwise, why isn't he in the Preakness?

He didn't struggle with handling the off track if he was able register a :45+ first half mile. What he struggled with handling was the final 6 furlongs after registering that silly :45+ opening half.

[cj]

The flip-flopping is getting to be way overboard. The Woody Stephens was a perfect race to "regroup" if that's what the horse needs. Otherwise, why isn't he in the Preakness?

He didn't struggle with handling the off track if he was able register a :45+ first half mile. What he struggled with handling was the final 6 furlongs after registering that silly :45+ opening half.

He is probably out of his element, as in over his head, with a horse this good. The only way you run a 3yo in the Met Mile IMO is for the weight break. If you ride Nakatani, might as well pick another race.

[Secondbest]

This actually does make some sense, i dont think the older horses are a particularly strong lot and he may be better suited for that distance, and since he is owned and trained by Ruis a win here far enhances his value more than a Preakness win.

Do you think he can beat Army Mule in a mile at Belmont ?

[GMB@BP]

Do you think he can beat Army Mule in a mile at Belmont ?

army mule hasnt had a work since the carter

[CincyHorseplayer]

army mule hasnt had a work since the carter

So what. Might be more reasons to play against than this. Not top notch analysis!

[GMB@BP]

So what. Might be more reasons to play against than this. Not top notch analysis!

Well he will be a special horse if he goes the 2 months without a work, as a player I welcome the idea!!

[Spalding No!]

Well he will be a special horse if he goes the 2 months without a work, as a player I welcome the idea!!

Would have to be a special entry, too:

NYRA workout criteria

Horses which have not raced in 60 days will require two works, including one of at least a half-mile, and one work within 30 days, while horses who have not raced in 30 days will require one work of at least three-eighths of a mile within that time frame.

[Secondbest]

army mule hasnt had a work since the carter

Still a month until the met.

[Secondbest]

I'm not touting Army Mule. I learned my lesson last year with that.
I'm using him as an example of what Bolt will be up against in the MET.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm not touting Army Mule. I learned my lesson last year with that.
I'm using him as an example of what Bolt will be up against in the MET.


The Met has also seen some ridiculous career best efforts in recent editions for horses like Frosted and Mor Spirit. Just the past 4 years alone which also includes Honor Code and Palace Malice have been superb performances.



Not saying that this year will also have a sub 1:34 performance (or gasp, even sub 1:33), but recent history doesn't spell out much kindness to a 3YO trying to step up into the elder division in that race.

[dilanesp]

The Met has also seen some ridiculous career best efforts in recent editions for horses like Frosted and Mor Spirit. Just the past 4 years alone which also includes Honor Code and Palace Malice have been superb performances.



Not saying that this year will also have a sub 1:34 performance (or gasp, even sub 1:33), but recent history doesn't spell out much kindness to a 3YO trying to step up into the elder division in that race.

Historically, though, it is a great race for 3 year olds due to the weight break. Arts And Letters, Conquistador Cielo, Gulch, PA's favorite Holy Bull, etc.

[papillon]

Historically, though, it is a great race for 3 year olds due to the weight break. Arts And Letters, Conquistador Cielo, Gulch, PA's favorite Holy Bull, etc.

Well, I mean, Bolt is hardly Holy Bull.

[cj]

Historically, though, it is a great race for 3 year olds due to the weight break. Arts And Letters, Conquistador Cielo, Gulch, PA's favorite Holy Bull, etc.

And of course the weight break is out the window if Nakatani rides as scheduled.

[GMB@BP]

And of course the weight break is out the window if Nakatani rides as scheduled.

what is the wight break? Nakatani probably tacks 118 now?

[cj]

what is the wight break? Nakatani probably tacks 118 now?

Holy Bull was assigned 110 but carried 112 with 2 pound overweight. Honour and Glory carried 110. Dixie Brass carried 107.

I couldn't find the US scale but the UK scale shows 3yos going a mile in early June should get 11 pounds from older. The Met Mile is a handicap (I think it it still is) so it isn't cut and dried what the weights will be.

[cj]

Would have to be a special entry, too:

NYRA workout criteria

Horses which have not raced in 60 days will require two works, including one of at least a half-mile, and one work within 30 days, while horses who have not raced in 30 days will require one work of at least three-eighths of a mile within that time frame.

Pletcher states Army Mule out of the Met Mile, hardly a surprise.

I love the quotes.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42502-army-mule-to-miss-met-mile

[Spalding No!]

Pletcher states Army Mule out of the Met Mile, hardly a surprise.

I love the quotes.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42502-army-mule-to-miss-met-mile
Considering the lack of any timed workouts, I'm going to presume that the line "unable to regain his form" is a vast understatement. Probably more like "can't get him to train".

Seen this dance about a million times: Cross Traffic, Rally Cry, Graydar, Liam's Map, Half Ours, Forest Danger, Strong Hope, Rock Fall, etc.

Best case scenario: emulates Liam's Map
Worst case scenario: emulates Rock Fall
Most likely scenario: "runs out of time to make the BC"; retired

[cj]

Considering the lack of any timed workouts, I'm going to presume that the line "unable to regain his form" is a vast understatement. Probably more like "can't get him to train".

Seen this dance about a million times: Cross Traffic, Rally Cry, Graydar, Liam's Map, Half Ours, Forest Danger, Strong Hope, Rock Fall, etc.

Best case scenario: emulates Liam's Map
Worst case scenario: emulates Rock Fall
Most likely scenario: "runs out of time to make the BC"; retired

Spot on.