Curse Nonsense

[Denny]

Thank goodness we can stop hearing that curse nonsense anymore from turf writers.

They'll have to find some other thing to write about next year instead of always falling back on that.

Please come up with something more interesting next year - and actually meaningful, instead of relying on some old nonsense that was irrelevant to today's game.

PS. Justify ran TWICE as an actual 2 year old. In REAL LIFE terms since he was born on March 28, 2015. His first two races, he was still two.

In case someone thinks I'm just saying this now. I'm NOT. I wrote about it in blog somewhere else - before this year's Derby.

[spiketoo]

Well, I don't remember hearing anything the past couple years on dosage so there's always hope.

[biggestal99]

Thank goodness we can stop hearing that curse nonsense anymore from turf writers.

They'll have to find some other thing to write about next year instead of always falling back on that.

Please come up with something more interesting next year - and actually meaningful, instead of relying on some old nonsense that was irrelevant to today's game.

PS. Justify ran TWICE as an actual 2 year old. In REAL LIFE terms since he was born on March 28, 2015. His first two races, he was still two.

In case someone thinks I'm just saying this now. I'm NOT. I wrote about it in blog somewhere else - before this year's Derby.

Its not a curse but a well known fact that horses that with limited experience usually dont do well in the derby.

Of course this year chalkie came in.

I would still bet against Justify types over horses with more experience next year. and the year after that.....

One exception to the rule doesnt negate the o for 45 before justify comes in.

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.

Allan

[Tom]

The only one REAL curse we had to deal with this year was LoneF

[dilanesp]

Its not a curse but a well known fact that horses that with limited experience usually dont do well in the derby.

Of course this year chalkie came in.

I would still bet against Justify types over horses with more experience next year. and the year after that.....

One exception to the rule doesnt negate the o for 45 before justify comes in.

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.

Allan

It was a well known fact until the last couple of decades, when inexperienced horses started doing just fine.

Either things changed, or the prior statistics were due to random variance and a small sample, or both.

Either way, it's not a good idea to keep on using repudiated theories. Just handicap it as a normal horse race.

[Denny]

The best horse won. He was undefeated and was the fastest horse in the race - with the best trainer to boot.

Had nothing to do with whether he raced last year.

It's irrelevant in today's game - and it will occur more often now.

Adapt your handicapping accordingly or lose.

I considered Justify a virtual lock - had him at EVEN-Money on my line.
(Would have made a killing if I was able to use an Exchange.)

I made Mendelssohn at 25/1, for example, to start. Would have dropped him to 15, then 10 as the money poured in.

[Tom]

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.


First off, no one could have bet all those horses. And you are suggesting that that be the only criteria used.

How many of those horses had the resume of Justify going into the Derby - top Beyer fig, dominating win over the up to then main contender, Baffert as a trainer?

Looking at it like that, you are 100% with the angle.

Best stick to factors that really impact a race.
The curse was not a factor, just an observation. A symptom.

[thaskalos]

These curses aren't to be taken seriously. The Chicago Cubs proved that a couple years ago. :ThmbUp:

[biggestal99]

First off, no one could have bet all those horses. And you are suggesting that that be the only criteria used.

How many of those horses had the resume of Justify going into the Derby - top Beyer fig, dominating win over the up to then main contender, Baffert as a trainer?

Looking at it like that, you are 100% with the angle.

Best stick to factors that really impact a race.
The curse was not a factor, just an observation. A symptom.

Curlin, bodie. Need I go on.....

Allan

[BlueChip@DRF]

And thank God the Storm Cat curse can be done away with. I mean, yes, the line has not won the Derby before this year, but they have always been right there in the money. It was just a matter of time.

[Tom]

Curlin, bodie. Need I go on.....

Allan

Yes - who are the over 49 who looked like Justify.
Curlin - two weeks later he has suddenly overcome the curse?
and then relapses three weeks later and gets beat by a girl?

Come on, this stuff is nonsense nowadays.
Having 20 horses in the gate is the reAl curse of the Derby.
That, and running it at Churchill. :puke:

[biggestal99]

:popcorn:Yes - who are the over 49 who looked like Justify.
Curlin - two weeks later he has suddenly overcome the curse?
and then relapses three weeks later and gets beat by a girl?

Come on, this stuff is nonsense nowadays.
Having 20 horses in the gate is the reAl curse of the Derby.
That, and running it at Churchill. :puke:

Every race a horse runs exponentially helps a horse with experience.

Justify will run better in the Preakness.

Allan

[Tom]

You won't see 5-2 on him.

[biggestal99]

You won't see 5-2 on him.

2-5 maybe. LOL

Allan

[metro]

Justify didn't break the curse he crushed it by seven weeks.

[pandy]

Obviously, the term "curse" is used to create a dramatic effect and no one in their right mind takes it seriously.

But, I do wonder about Justify going forward. Yes, he's the best horse, but will his lack of foundation cause him to have a short career? I tend to believe that stakes horses hold up better if they had more races leading up to the Derby, and that includes two year old races. The way the trainers baby the horses now, there is no build up. If a horse runs one good race as a two year old it goes right into a graded stakes race. And if it misses it's two year old season completely, then it also gets rushed into facing top class horses.

Forego didn't start until his three year old season, but then he raced 18 times and he won seven races that weren't stakes races, his MSW, and six allowance races. His handlers didn't always put him in Gr1 or GR2 races, which they could have, but they let him develop. And he had a long career. The way they run these horses now, there is no plan for a racing career. It's just, hey, the horse can run, let's run him for the most money we can right away...and, let's only run him once in a while and only for top money. The horses aren't developed.

[dilanesp]

Obviously, the term "curse" is used to create a dramatic effect and no one in their right mind takes it seriously.

But, I do wonder about Justify going forward. Yes, he's the best horse, but will his lack of foundation cause him to have a short career? I tend to believe that stakes horses hold up better if they had more races leading up to the Derby, and that includes two year old races. The way the trainers baby the horses now, there is no build up. If a horse runs one good race as a two year old it goes right into a graded stakes race. And if it misses it's two year old season completely, then it also gets rushed into facing top class horses.

Forego didn't start until his three year old season, but then he raced 18 times and he won seven races that weren't stakes races, his MSW, and six allowance races. His handlers didn't always put him in Gr1 or GR2 races, which they could have, but they let him develop. And he had a long career. The way they run these horses now, there is no plan for a racing career. It's just, hey, the horse can run, let's run him for the most money we can right away...and, let's only run him once in a while and only for top money. The horses aren't developed.

I used to believe this, and maybe still do ultimately, but Curlin is a pretty good counterexample-- he was clearly rushed into the Derby and ended up having a very nice long career.

[Denny]

Curlin is also interesting in that he, along with Bodemeister, showed that you didn't have to race the year before turning three to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

It was only a matter of time till a horse like Justify would come along to dispel the "curse".

I would also contend that having all horses turn a year older on Jan 1 is a man-made convention that is in reality untrue and misleading.

I'll repeat what was said in the first post made - Justify, in fact, raced twice as a 2-yo. Once in February and once in March.

Even if we don't use the word curse. It's never really been true.