Derby Horses who Over-Performed

[MadVindication]

Bravazo really, really outperformed the expectations. I had bet him heavily, and don't regret it even tho he came in 6th. Because I'm new to handicapping so that's pretty good for a beginner.

Maybe he's the right horse, but the wrong race?

Researching passed derby's I noticed that Lucas is honest about his contenders. I see that is isn't uncommon that he takes long shots and makes them winners. When he has a live one he says so. But he knew Bravazo wouldn't be one of them. When he said in this* interview that he didn't think Bravazo had limitations at the distance and he kept the pace honest that was a pretty modest assessment.

I'm excited that Bravazo is running the Preakness.

Lone Sailor outperformed himself. Compared to Hofburg hype you'd think he would have been more outclassed by Hofburg.

I had picked Instilled Regard as a long shot because he was the same situation as Battle of Midway; points bubble;same trainer. Coincidence enough for me. And there was a thread on this forum where someone asked about "push button" horses. I figured that was a good angle because this derby wouldn't see closers hit the board, and a mid pack runner with explosive ability would likely hit the board. I bought the "Patterns of Motion" analysis, recommended here. Despite IR not ranking highly, they did identify him as that type of horse.

I'll add that I didn't win anything because I went to heavy on long shots out of FOMO, and betting ones that I was barely luke warm on and didnt bet enough faves on the same ticket. I was being an excited newbie and betting the odds I wanted to happen more than what I learned from watching/reading about races :( But I'm really confident that I could be a damn good horseplayer. Mostly because I caught a real passion for the sport this year after watching the Charlestown Classic and seeing Something Awesome win. I like the Awesome Again pedigree, and I'm going to keep that in my betting habits.


*Lucas interview mentioned:
https://youtu.be/OBLWLxlVi5E

[GMB@BP]

I think he really liked the track. Lukas will run him now in every race they run for 3yo this year, we will see if that effort was real or not many times over.

[MadVindication]

I think he really liked the track. Lukas will run him now in every race they run for 3yo this year, we will see if that effort was real or not many times over.

Well I hope Bravazo is up to the task. He seems like a tough one. He looked pretty game and alert walking to the gate, but pretty controlled. Will compare that to how he shows up next race.

really I thought he was going to be a Thunder Snow.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought he'd finish in the last five.

Outran my expectations.

Not fan of his, but he ran a credible race.


I thought Good Magic ran better than what I expected. I projected GM to finish 2nd or 3rd or 4th, but that was based on his class and professionalism. His mastery of the fundamentals.
Even though he was the most reliable contender, and an obvious 'use' for 2nd, I didn't give Good Magic a chance to beat Justify's 'good race'. Justify did run his 'good' race, yet Good Magic was a credible contender from the far turn, to the top of the stretch. Good Magic was also much the 2nd-best of anyone else. No one ever threatened Good Magic for 2nd.
Good Magic had some less-than-obvious form; Bolt may have run the best Juvenile, yet GM literally won in a strong performance. GM ran the best Fountain of Youth, yet he literally finished 3rd. And then he ran about the same in the Bluegrass as he did in the Fountain of Youth, yet had a much better literal finish. With the love for Chad Brown, you didn't get better than "Fair Odds" on Good Magic, even with the difficult to read form.

[lured]

Good Magic was also much the 2nd-best of anyone else. No one ever threatened Good Magic for 2nd.


Well, he placed by a headbob Bob ;). So I'd say one horse threatened him for 2nd.

[Robert Fischer]

Well, he placed by a headbob Bob ;). So I'd say one horse threatened him for 2nd.

You and Larry Collmus both thought it was close for 2nd. :ThmbUp:


When they were mid-way on the far turn, Good Magic put a fear into anyone with a lot riding on Justify.

Audible fans needed to pray for Jose Ortiz to abruptly pull-up Good Magic, or for the Finish Line to get up and walk further away. Good Magic never looked like he was in danger of losing the placing.

[lured]

You and Larry Collmus both thought it was close for 2nd. :ThmbUp:


When they were mid-way on the far turn, Good Magic put a fear into anyone with a lot riding on Justify.

Audible fans needed to pray for Jose Ortiz to abruptly pull-up Good Magic, or for the Finish Line to get up and walk further away. Good Magic never looked like he was in danger of losing the placing.

Well, from what I thought I saw, he actually got up even with him a split fraction before the line and the head movement is what got GM the place. Personally I was happy about that as I had the Tri both ways but for some reason prefer the 9-1 over the 7-1. I realize that still means he probably wasn't even as the angle of the camera would make the inside horse a bit further back, but to say he wasn't threatened doesn't make sense to me.

If you're saying (though it didn't seem that way in your first post) that GM was only challenger to Justify, yes correct. But Audible threatened GM a heck of a lot more than GM threatened Justify.

[dilanesp]

I thought he'd finish in the last five.

Outran my expectations.

Not fan of his, but he ran a credible race.


I thought Good Magic ran better than what I expected. I projected GM to finish 2nd or 3rd or 4th, but that was based on his class and professionalism. His mastery of the fundamentals.
Even though he was the most reliable contender, and an obvious 'use' for 2nd, I didn't give Good Magic a chance to beat Justify's 'good race'. Justify did run his 'good' race, yet Good Magic was a credible contender from the far turn, to the top of the stretch. Good Magic was also much the 2nd-best of anyone else. No one ever threatened Good Magic for 2nd.
Good Magic had some less-than-obvious form; Bolt may have run the best Juvenile, yet GM literally won in a strong performance. GM ran the best Fountain of Youth, yet he literally finished 3rd. And then he ran about the same in the Bluegrass as he did in the Fountain of Youth, yet had a much better literal finish. With the love for Chad Brown, you didn't get better than "Fair Odds" on Good Magic, even with the difficult to read form.

I liked Good Magic's BC Juvenile, which I saw in person. Obviously Bolt got a god-awful ride in that race, but Good Magic did nothing wrong and his final time was excellent. If you extrapolate a few points of improvement between a November 2 year old and a May 3 year old. he was a contender in the Derby if he ran that race. I said that in my long-ass post picking Justify. :)

The thing is, as you say, Good Magic not only needed to run back to his BC race, but he needed Justify to not run his race. And the second part of the scenario didn't happen.

But Good Magic is a very nice racehorse and I love how honest he is-- he tries hard every time. He'll win some races down the line.

[Robert Fischer]

Well, from what I thought I saw, he actually got up even with him a split fraction before the line and the head movement is what got GM the place. Personally I was happy about that as I had the Tri both ways but for some reason prefer the 9-1 over the 7-1. I realize that still means he probably wasn't even as the angle of the camera would make the inside horse a bit further back, but to say he wasn't threatened doesn't make sense to me.

If you're saying (though it didn't seem that way in your first post) that GM was only challenger to Justify, yes correct. But Audible threatened GM a heck of a lot more than GM threatened Justify.

Nope. It may have appeared that way, but at no point before the wire did Audible have a head in front.
This was as close as it ever got:
https://www.churchilldowns.com/uploads/photo-finishes/2018-05-05%20Race%2012%20Place.jpg.

You can skip to about 2:25 and watch the finish in HD. It wasn't close at all until about the final 1/16th, and even then, Good Magic would have needed to fall or stop abruptly. This just happened to be a rather extreme example of one of those belated finishes from a runner-up, where the final margin is a lot closer than the actual competitiveness of the placing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jSWMme12ik

but Larry C,ollmus even called Audible for 2nd... Different people see things differently. If you still do not agree, that's cool. :ThmbUp:

[lured]

Nope. It may have appeared that way, but at no point before the wire did Audible have a head in front.
This was as close as it ever got:
https://www.churchilldowns.com/uploads/photo-finishes/2018-05-05%20Race%2012%20Place.jpg.

You can skip to about 2:25 and watch the finish in HD. It wasn't close at all until about the final 1/16th, and even then, Good Magic would have needed to fall or stop abruptly. This just happened to be a rather extreme example of one of those belated finishes from a runner-up, where the final margin is a lot closer than the actual competitiveness of the placing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jSWMme12ik

but Larry C,ollmus even called Audible for 2nd... Different people see things differently. If you still do not agree, that's cool. :ThmbUp:

We just have a different opinion of what is close.

[Robert Fischer]

We just have a different opinion of what is close.

I'm looking at this in slow-motion... Maybe you are right and Audible did head-bob with him. :ThmbUp:

Certainly looks close:
http://oi66.tinypic.com/2yvwb2c.jpg

[lured]

I'm looking at this in slow-motion... Maybe you are right and Audible did head-bob with him. :ThmbUp:

Certainly looks close:
http://oi66.tinypic.com/2yvwb2c.jpg

Yeah, and I think you're correct that maybe Audible never ever got even or ahead, but I do think he got closer than he was at photo due to his head going up and back while GM's is going down and lunging(neck fully extended) forward.

[minethatbird08]

Bravazo really, really outperformed the expectations. I had bet him heavily, and don't regret it even tho he came in 6th. Because I'm new to handicapping so that's pretty good for a beginner.

Maybe he's the right horse, but the wrong race?

Researching passed derby's I noticed that Lucas is honest about his contenders. I see that is isn't uncommon that he takes long shots and makes them winners. When he has a live one he says so. But he knew Bravazo wouldn't be one of them. When he said in this* interview that he didn't think Bravazo had limitations at the distance and he kept the pace honest that was a pretty modest assessment.

I'm excited that Bravazo is running the Preakness.

Lone Sailor outperformed himself. Compared to Hofburg hype you'd think he would have been more outclassed by Hofburg.

I had picked Instilled Regard as a long shot because he was the same situation as Battle of Midway; points bubble;same trainer. Coincidence enough for me. And there was a thread on this forum where someone asked about "push button" horses. I figured that was a good angle because this derby wouldn't see closers hit the board, and a mid pack runner with explosive ability would likely hit the board. I bought the "Patterns of Motion" analysis, recommended here. Despite IR not ranking highly, they did identify him as that type of horse.

I'll add that I didn't win anything because I went to heavy on long shots out of FOMO, and betting ones that I was barely luke warm on and didnt bet enough faves on the same ticket. I was being an excited newbie and betting the odds I wanted to happen more than what I learned from watching/reading about races :( But I'm really confident that I could be a damn good horseplayer. Mostly because I caught a real passion for the sport this year after watching the Charlestown Classic and seeing Something Awesome win. I like the Awesome Again pedigree, and I'm going to keep that in my betting habits.


*Lucas interview mentioned:
https://youtu.be/OBLWLxlVi5E

I might be biased but Hofburg ran better than his 7th place finish. Not saying he would have got in the money but he ran into a lot of trouble trying to get outside coming for home.

[GMB@BP]

Hoffberg in a normal Derby field would have been about 10/1...he had a trip and will be a popular Belmont pick regardless of how well Justify does in the Preakness (or if he even runs reading some posts here).

[gm10]

I might be biased but Hofburg ran better than his 7th place finish. Not saying he would have got in the money but he ran into a lot of trouble trying to get outside coming for home.

Hofburg ran an awesome race!

[MadVindication]

I might be biased but Hofburg ran better than his 7th place finish. Not saying he would have got in the money but he ran into a lot of trouble trying to get outside coming for home.

Don't think it's bias. I figured that the late "hype" about him was probably on spot. He was/is the most consistenly improving long shot. I'll play him if he runs in the next triple crown races.

Something I learned while handicapping the derby is that conditioning via race experience is more important for horses with a closing running style. Then I understood why My Boy Jack was one of the most experienced horses so I decided to not bet Hofburg because of him being lightly raced and since MBJ was in the race.

[thaskalos]

IMO...the sloppy going was an overlooked factor in deciphering the performances of some of these Derby horses. I refuse to believe that Good Magic is a better horse than Audible or Bolt d'Oro.

[Grits]

I think the sloppy going was monumental. I really do. I mean when has a Derby ever had 3 inches of rain fall on the track? THAT'S A LOT of rain. I think riders didn't push their horses like they would have on a dry track under sunny skies.

[dilanesp]

IMO...the sloppy going was an overlooked factor in deciphering the performances of some of these Derby horses. I refuse to believe that Good Magic is a better horse than Audible or Bolt d'Oro.

Good Magic has now beaten Bolt twice, both times in big races with big fields.

[GMB@BP]

Good Magic has now beaten Bolt twice, both times in big races with big fields.

I would tend to agree, at this point arguing Good Magic over Bolt seems a bit of a stretch.

[thaskalos]

Good Magic has now beaten Bolt twice, both times in big races with big fields.

I thought we had agreed that "small samples" cannot be entrusted to supply conclusive results.

[GMB@BP]

I thought we had agreed that "small samples" cannot be entrusted to supply conclusive results.

how many races does it take for one horse to be considered better then the other horse, with the whole small sample size being considered?

[señorclipclop]

What odds would you take on Bravazo in the Preakness? Maybe he could duplicate the performance of his close relative Oxbow.

[minethatbird08]

Don't think it's bias. I figured that the late "hype" about him was probably on spot. He was/is the most consistenly improving long shot. I'll play him if he runs in the next triple crown races.

Something I learned while handicapping the derby is that conditioning via race experience is more important for horses with a closing running style. Then I understood why My Boy Jack was one of the most experienced horses so I decided to not bet Hofburg because of him being lightly raced and since MBJ was in the race.

That is a good point. In his one workout, last before shipping to Kentucky, he didn't really like going inside. That kinda means come Derby time your only option is going wide, this is what we have seen this year so far far. Mott said he is pointing to the Belmont. Not a huge fan of closers in general and even more so in the Belmont but will definitely give him a look again .

[clicknow]

I think the sloppy going was monumental. I really do. I mean when has a Derby ever had 3 inches of rain fall on the track? THAT'S A LOT of rain.

If this were any other race it would be a "no wager" race. Horseplayers rarely play races with any certainty when the track is that much of a mess.

Yet, because certain horses that certain people like and don't like, the merits of the horses will be argued AS IF it was a dry sunny fast track.

To be honest, the results of a race like this, under those weather conditions, if this were a "prep race", most of us would toss the results.

It's almost hypocritical not to, since I've seen people toss races for weather that was way less drastic.

I for one am not going to argue for or against any horse under those circumstances.

[dilanesp]

I thought we had agreed that "small samples" cannot be entrusted to supply conclusive results.

I don't exclude the possibility that Bolt underperformed in those 2 races. But it certainly looks like GM runs better in these big fields and Bolt gets himself in trouble.

[dilanesp]

I think the sloppy going was monumental. I really do. I mean when has a Derby ever had 3 inches of rain fall on the track? THAT'S A LOT of rain. I think riders didn't push their horses like they would have on a dry track under sunny skies.

Sunday Silence's Derby was an absolute mess. And yet the best horses ran 1-2.

[MadVindication]

What odds would you take on Bravazo in the Preakness? Maybe he could duplicate the performance of his close relative Oxbow.

Right now he's about 20-1 on some early odds sites. That's not enough to get me to put a basic win bet without thinking about how I could better spend the money. Because Justify.

I will bet Bravazo in exotics even if he's a shockingly favoured 2-1. If he's at 20-1 when I hit the OTB termninal I will be happy enough. If the field is thin and not many other derby horses than I'm preparing to be disappointed when I see he's an underlay. Sporting Chance is better at about 30-1 I guess for the simple fact that he didn't run the derby. But Sporting Chance is the horse Lucas thought shoulda/coulda run the derby.

I think Btavazo is a good chance to place or show. Just hoping that Luis Contreras still rides him instead of getting back on Sporting Chance.

[Robert Fischer]

Before the race there were 4 'auto-tosses'

Firenze Fire (slow, bad post)
Noble Indy (slow, also probably a pace casualty or even 'rabbit')
Combatant (Slow, bad post for him)
Bravazo (slow, cheap, likely pace casualty)


These didn't require cleverness, or an angle (beyond the obvious stated).
There was a definite 'tier' between these decisions, and decisions like Magnum Moon who were a toss, but required deeper analysis.

Maybe, you could call it the "first pass metabolism" if the analogy works for you.


Yet, Bravazo ran perhaps the 5th best race.
He was one of the only runners who stuck around from that mid-pack 'war', where pace and kickback and distance took the heart of rivals such as Bolt d'Oro or Flameaway.

I'm not sure if Bravazo proved to me that he has secretly been a 2nd or 3rd-tier contender, or if he proved to me that he is TOUGH.

Certainly an interesting 'trip' to review in the Derby.

[MadVindication]

I'm not sure if Bravazo proved to me that he has secretly been a 2nd or 3rd-tier contender, or if he proved to me that he is TOUGH.
.


He's definitely tough. Will see if that fortitude lends him ability to run again soon and well. If he bombs I'd still like to see him race as a 4-5 year old. Not sure the likelihood of that.

I can see Bravazo running well or even stubbornly refusing to race. :D

Really I credit Contreras for tuning into Bravazo's potential and needs. Been reading about him and see he's got some unique versatility. In his prime right now. And this article on Contreras tells his story well:

"2016 Clark Handicap – Breaking Lucky

Breaking Lucky’s second place finish in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap was even more impressive because the winner, Gun Runner, has turned into one of the top handicap horses in the United States.

Contreras brought a 46 to 1 shot ahead of Shaman Ghost, Hoppertunity, Effienx, and Noble Bird. Think about that. Even after he finished fourth in the Woodward, Breaking Lucky was no better than a 46 to 1 shot in the Clark Handicap.

Breaking Lucky appeared ready to pounce on Gun Runner in this race. That’s the sign of a great jockey. Sometimes, your horse just isn’t good enough. Getting your horse into a position to win is your job. Luis Contreras seems to do that every time he rides."

https://extra.betamerica.com/jockey-profile-luis-contreras/


Certainly an interesting 'trip' to review in the Derby.

If you decide to take a closer look at it I'd much appreciate hearing your thoughts on it.

[letswastemoney]

In Oxbow's win, the Derby winner Orb was a closer and the other speed didn't materialize.

In this situation, if Bravazo wants to show speed, Justify will be up there right with him. If he comes from midpack, he will need some help.

Maybe Lukas puts Sporting Chance on the pace and Bravazo midpack.

[Robert Fischer]

He's definitely tough. Will see if that fortitude lends him ability to run again soon and well. If he bombs I'd still like to see him race as a 4-5 year old. Not sure the likelihood of that.

I can see Bravazo running well or even stubbornly refusing to race. :D

Really I credit Contreras for tuning into Bravazo's potential and needs. Been reading about him and see he's got some unique versatility. In his prime right now. And this article on Contreras tells his story well:

"2016 Clark Handicap – Breaking Lucky

Breaking Lucky’s second place finish in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap was even more impressive because the winner, Gun Runner, has turned into one of the top handicap horses in the United States.

Contreras brought a 46 to 1 shot ahead of Shaman Ghost, Hoppertunity, Effienx, and Noble Bird. Think about that. Even after he finished fourth in the Woodward, Breaking Lucky was no better than a 46 to 1 shot in the Clark Handicap.

Breaking Lucky appeared ready to pounce on Gun Runner in this race. That’s the sign of a great jockey. Sometimes, your horse just isn’t good enough. Getting your horse into a position to win is your job. Luis Contreras seems to do that every time he rides."

https://extra.betamerica.com/jockey-profile-luis-contreras/

Those are some good rides, and some good points. :ThmbUp:

To be honest, even as much as I follow racing, Contreras is not a guy that I have as deep a 'book' on relative to other leading riders.

He 'teams up' well with a horse.

I don't know how to describe that... If there is something that I think of him, he doesn't 'fight' a horse's natural rhythm.

:coffee:
Odd explanation; but if a mutant horse were to 'grow' a jockey on his back, he'd have something like Luis Contreras. Part of the horse. :confused:

Don't get me wrong- Contreras will go to the whip. Sometimes he's the first jockey to go to the whip. But he's not wrestling the horse, and attempting to impose his will upon the horse from gate to wire. Sometimes he seems to be relatively loose-reigned compared to the average. When it's time to go to the whip he often looks more composed and balanced than some who are simply under a hard drive.

I know him mostly from Woodbine, as "one of the leading jockeys@Woodbine". You can't be a dummy and have success at Woodbine, where there is polytrack, turf and decent field sizes. The stigma/worry about that circuit isn't about riding smarts, it's more about whether a guy can handle tactical speed and pace at the top meets. He does fine with that.

I don't want to make it sound like I think he's a super-jock. That wouldn't be an accurate description of my opinion. He's always been more of a guy that "I don't mind" riding my horse, than a guy that I seek out. He's always been a bit under my radar.

One of the many fun things about this sport is following the different jockeys.

Do you have a hand in that Betamerica site? It seems like a nice jockey page (I think it's better than the one from Woodbine that came up on google).

In Oxbow's win, the Derby winner Orb was a closer and the other speed didn't materialize.

In this situation, if Bravazo wants to show speed, Justify will be up there right with him. If he comes from midpack, he will need some help.

Maybe Lukas puts Sporting Chance on the pace and Bravazo midpack.

Does have some similarities to Oxbow's Derby trip. Same trainer too. Interesting