Some are questioning....

[Grits]

Video of Justify this a.m. He seems off in his left back hind. Though nothing is mentioned in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYybJiudbEc

[SecretAgentMan]

What are they seeing?

[Grits]

Favoring his left rear hoof; not putting equal weight on it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You're right Grits. He's staggering a little. But that could be from just sleeping funny. I do it plenty and it's not from being loaded in the summer months!

[Grits]

Maybe he'd been lying down before they had to bring him out. One thing's for sure though. He ain't warm and fuzzy like Pharaoh. :lol::lol::lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe he'd been lying down before they had to bring him out. One thing's for sure though. He ain't warm and fuzzy like Pharaoh. :lol::lol::lol:

You are the queen of this game girl!:ThmbUp:

[Ruffian1]

No doubt about it Grits. Wants to be on his toe and weight off of it every chance he got.

[PointGiven]

Maybe being optimistic, but he seems to straighten back out walking back into the barn, equal weight, hoof flat.

[Ruffian1]

Maybe being optimistic, but he seems to straighten back out walking back into the barn, equal weight, hoof flat.

I almost mentioned that. Seemed he had a tough time with tight turns on the stone dust. Would have loved to see him in the shed going around the corner.
Lets hope he's alright.

[Grits]

Ruffian, I'm glad you looked at this. I was hoping you would. My only thought was running in only his fourth race in this field and the horrible conditions...I wouldn't be surprised if something is amiss. This and he was in front of journalists for just a minute. I hope he's ok.

[098poi]

I don't know about horses natural stance but watch his rear left from:39 on and twice he is on his toe. Hopefully just from tight turn.

[Grits]

You are the queen of this game girl!:ThmbUp:

No, I applied at NBC, bud. They chose Johnny Weir over me!! :lol:

[PointGiven]

I almost mentioned that. Seemed he had a tough time with tight turns on the stone dust. Would have loved to see him in the shed going around the corner.
Lets hope he's alright.

Plus Bob said he came out of it well. While I get that's what he is going to say. Coach speak, they all were training well coming in, etc. Thinking he would not have paraded him around if something was really wrong. Would have been a stall shot him feedin him carrots or the like.

[Robert Fischer]

Video of Justify this a.m. He seems off in his left back hind. Though nothing is mentioned in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYybJiudbEc
No doubt about it Grits. Wants to be on his toe and weight off of it every chance he got.



Certainly enough to question, but not enough there for me to have any opinion.

For all I know, this is twice as nice as he looked the morning after the Santa Anita Derby.

The 'youtube vets' already have him diagnosed as 'lame'. May be the normal process he deals with. Hopefully does not affect him in the Preakness. Would like to see a gallop between races, and check him out paddock/parade.

Unbeknownst to us, these guys deal with issues.
Magnum Moon was one I worried about. Here was a horse who was supposed to start as a 2yo at Saratoga, but missed 5 months training because of an ankle injury. A January 13th debut. Since the point-system change, only PATCH got a later start of all TAPs Derby Entrants. He won the Rebel Stakes and drifted out in the stretch. Then he won the Arkansas Derby and lugged out to the grandstand. Now what are you supposed to do?? Shut the horse down?? He just won a ticket to the Derby. Some 'experts' are actually picking him to win... You just heard Vic tell us that he was a "Bad Moon :cool: On The RISEEE!!!"... You can't shut him down now for something that only surfaces under stress.
That's a horse I tossed, and I pointed it out in the little video I did, but the main thing is you never want to see a horse get hurt. Finished only ahead of the eased/walked-off Mendelssohn, but apparently without major incident.

It's the reality of the game. We deal with probabilities as a gambler, and the connections deal with probabilities as well.

Hopefully that isn't the same kind of gamble that Justify will be placed in. All the recovery/rest in the world, even if he is 1000% for the Breeders Cup Classic, he'll never get another shot at the 'Triple Crown'... The time is now, baby boy. Hopefully this is 'merely' a minor chronic issue, and he runs as huge in the Preakness as he did in the Derby. (103B/127TFUS are both 'low' and Good Magic actually ran surprisingly huge as well, to contend, but that's discussion for another thread).

[CincyHorseplayer]

No, I applied at NBC, bud. They chose Johnny Weir over me!! :lol:

Yeah! LOL! Doesn't change the fact I am a legend in my own mind and you are the queen of my game! Not anyone else's game=my game!

[SecretAgentMan]

The 144th Kentucky Derby winner was full of energy on Sunday morning and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has every intention of heading to Baltimore for the May 19 Preakness Stakes (GI), the second leg of racing's Triple Crown. Baffert led undefeated Justify out of his barn shortly after 8 a.m. for a photo opportunity and the Scat Daddy colt looked ready to run another 10 furlongs, tossing his head for photographers and refusing to settle down.



"He looks phenomenal today,” Baffert said. “He's full of himself. He knows he's a stud. He came back and he really wasn't that tired. He ate up last night and today he's been a handful. When I got him out of the stall he was pulling me around; usually they're a little bit tired.”





(Nothing wrong with his leg or foot, he's ready to go)

[Michael]

@SecretAgentMan That's not what my eyes see in this video. The video does look like he's compensating that one leg.

[Andy Asaro]

Video of Justify this a.m. He seems off in his left back hind. Though nothing is mentioned in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYybJiudbEc

Great find. Since this video has been up a lot of my email list have been commenting on how he looked including Trainers I know. They all agree with your observation.

[SecretAgentMan]

@SecretAgentMan That's not what my eyes see in this video. The video does look like he's compensating that one leg.





Let's see what Baffert says & what Justify looks like by next weekend.

If there is something wrong with Justify, Baffert will come out with it, he doesn't hold back.

[GMB@BP]

Hes done enough.

[Robert Fischer]

definitely trust your eyes over the media

a quote is worthless in this case

I laid it out with the MM example

but, like i said, I want to stress that we're looking at a single 'frame' in the entire movie. It's enough to question, but it's not enough to know the story.

[Michael]

Let's see what Baffert says & what Justify looks like by next weekend.

If there is something wrong with Justify, Baffert will come out with it, he doesn't hold back.

I read the same in a blood horse article. That he was fine. Said "was handled with beyond-his-experience poise." Guess well have to see. :popcorn:

I think the horse needs rest.

[letswastemoney]

He didn't want to walk on that mat on the floor.

[Benni]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/No_Justify_wasnt_lame_after_Kentucky_Derby_win_ver y_minor_issue_123#

"In a text message Sunday afternoon, Baffert said Justify "has an irritated pastern that we call 'scratches.'" The skin condition is "very minor" and can be caused by wet weather. Considering Saturday's Derby Day was the wettest on record, it was of no surprise.

"The gravel outside (the) barn made it look worse," Baffert said."

[Robert Fischer]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/No_Justify_wasnt_lame_after_Kentucky_Derby_win_ver y_minor_issue_123#

"In a text message Sunday afternoon, Baffert said Justify "has an irritated pastern that we call 'scratches.'" The skin condition is "very minor" and can be caused by wet weather. Considering Saturday's Derby Day was the wettest on record, it was of no surprise.

"The gravel outside (the) barn made it look worse," Baffert said."

that is interesting, because comments were about the weight-bearing, not about the appearance of his flesh.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/HR_Nation/status/993199023405371392

[GMB@BP]

auto toss in two weeks...i dont buy that trainer speak

[Andy Asaro]

auto toss in two weeks...i dont buy that trainer speak

He'll be good as new after some adjustments.

[Robert Fischer]

see if/how he gallops

see how he looks in paddock/parade


these are the types of 'possible-negatives' that should discourage you from bridge-jumping activities, but if you have a great multi-sequence in the undercard don't let Justify beat you.

This could be an existing issue. I haven't heard his 'story' of why he decided to 'show up' Apollo. I can guarantee that the truth is not "we wanted a late bloomer" or "he was tall, and we wanted him to fill out"...' It's very important to these guys to run their horses at 2.

Like I said, this could be way better than he looked the morning after the Santa Anita Derby. On the other hand it is worth questioning. Let's see how he does gallop/paddock/parade.

[Grits]

https://thehorse.com/127027/understanding-scratches/

Ok, Bob. But, he didn't show signs of this before the race. Too, he's been in SoCal where you haven't had copious amounts of rainfall and moisture. And I sure don't think he got this from his stall conditions.

Hopefully, this hasn't been chronic in his case. We'll just wait 'til you tell us he's good to go.

I don't like trainer speak. I'm gonna work at trusting him....;)

[JayTris07]

No, I applied at NBC, bud. They chose Johnny Weir over me!! :lol:



:lol::lol::D:D:pound::pound::lol::lol:

[SecretAgentMan]

auto toss in two weeks...i dont buy that trainer speak



A bit premature, unless they cut one if his legs off, or I read Baffert says he won't run him, I'm all over him like white on rice in the Preakness.

[JustRalph]

No, I applied at NBC, bud. They chose Johnny Weir over me!! :lol:

Post of the week!! :lol::pound:

[Ruffian1]

https://thehorse.com/127027/understanding-scratches/

Ok, Bob. But, he didn't show signs of this before the race. Too, he's been in SoCal where you haven't had copious amounts of rainfall and moisture. And I sure don't think he got this from his stall conditions.

Hopefully, this hasn't been chronic in his case. We'll just wait 'til you tell us he's good to go.

I don't like trainer speak. I'm gonna work at trusting him....;)

Grits,


To be honest, the horse did walk like a horse that has a cracked heel ( but he did not from what I saw) OR very raw and skin sore heels at the hairline. Hope people that don't know what a cracked heel is don't start thinking I mean a bone crack. It is a skin cracking similar to if you happen to be prone to dry skin and in the winter if your hands get wet, the skin will crack. It hurts to the touch or to stretch the skin. But horses walk that way also because of a bruised foot which can happen anytime. If it is skin, it will heel fine. If it is a bruised foot, that will typically heel in 3-4 days as well. If it is something worse, we will know soon enough. I hope not.

What gets me is IMO there is no way Baffert walks that horse out there on the hard stone dust if he is aware the horse will look like that. NO WAY ! He couldn't have had any idea, could he?
So now he is in full damage control. If he gets beat in two weeks, the whole world will be on his butt. Heck, if he wins, people will swear he's a butcher just for running him. He must be some kinda upset at being put in that position for everyone to be in pounce mode no matter what happens.

The horse is a chestnut, and does have some white back there, making him more susceptible to skin conditions than other colors might be. But what a terrible spot he is in now. Wow.

Oh, and that picture on the link is ridiculous. I saw a quarter crack, no shoe, hoof rot, and a fully infected front coronet band. Would have seen more but it was making me sick.

By the way, the Johnny Weir comment was classic !!! Too funny Grits. Your the greatest.

[Andy Asaro]

tibia ??????????????

[JustRalph]

I don’t know anything about horses, but that looked like shit to me. Looked like pain higher up in his hip........to me.....

[Ruffian1]

I don’t know anything about horses, but that looked like shit to me. Looked like pain higher up in his hip........to me.....

Well, when you see a horse on their toe, the problem is either the foot, or up high. That is the rule of thumb but hind end problems can be difficult to pinpoint.
So good call there.
Let's hope for the skin story. Up high would not be cool at all.

[Grits]

Ruffian, you explained this so well. And, yes, that photo was real ugly. It looked like a thrown away ole quarter horse that hadn't seen a farrier in Lord knows when!

Bob, can get irked with having to do damage control but it's his fault. Sure, he should have known. We'll just wait. Maybe in the meantime, he can ask Barbara Livingston to take one of her good closeup shots. Remember when she shot photos of Big Brown and his quartercrack.....how it was filled in, etc? This doesn't sound serious, still, everyone wants him to be in good order.

Grits,


To be honest, the horse did walk like a horse that has a cracked heel ( but he did not from what I saw) OR very raw and skin sore heels at the hairline. Hope people that don't know what a cracked heel is don't start thinking I mean a bone crack. It is a skin cracking similar to if you happen to be prone to dry skin and in the winter if your hands get wet, the skin will crack. It hurts to the touch or to stretch the skin. But horses walk that way also because of a bruised foot which can happen anytime. If it is skin, it will heel fine. If it is a bruised foot, that will typically heel in 3-4 days as well. If it is something worse, we will know soon enough. I hope not.

What gets me is IMO there is no way Baffert walks that horse out there on the hard stone dust if he is aware the horse will look like that. NO WAY ! He couldn't have had any idea, could he?
So now he is in full damage control. If he gets beat in two weeks, the whole world will be on his butt. Heck, if he wins, people will swear he's a butcher just for running him. He must be some kinda upset at being put in that position for everyone to be in pounce mode no matter what happens.

The horse is a chestnut, and does have some white back there, making him more susceptible to skin conditions than other colors might be. But what a terrible spot he is in now. Wow.

Oh, and that picture on the link is ridiculous. I saw a quarter crack, no shoe, hoof rot, and a fully infected front coronet band. Would have seen more but it was making me sick.

By the way, the Johnny Weir comment was classic !!! Too funny Grits. Your the greatest.

[Ruffian1]

Ruffian, you explained this so well. And, yes, that photo was real ugly. It looked like a thrown away ole quarter horse that hadn't seen a farrier in Lord knows when!

Bob, can get irked with having to do damage control but it's his fault. Sure, he should have known. We'll just wait. Maybe in the meantime, he can ask Barbara Livingston to take one of her good closeup shots. Remember when she shot photos of Big Brown and his quartercrack.....how it was filled in, etc? This doesn't sound serious, still, everyone wants him to be in good order.

Yeah, he really stepped in it didn't he.


Yes, I do remember the Big Brown picture. Oh my.

Let's hope for the best in terms of the horse.

[Tom]

No, I applied at NBC, bud. They chose Johnny Weir over me!! :lol:

It was his hat, that's all.

[Ruffian1]

It was his hat, that's all.

I was too busy watching the spinning pin to even notice the hat.

[SecretAgentMan]

According to Baffert, reached by telephone on Sunday afternoon, Justify has a fairly common condition known as “scratches” below the pastern of his left hind ankle. The condition – called “mud fever” by some – is characterized by an irritation of the skin above the hoof, almost like chapped lips in a person. It is caused by constant wetting and over-drying of the skin, which allows various microorganisms to invade microscopic cracks in the skin and multiply.


After his trip over the wet, muddy going at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Justify's condition was slightly irritated on Sunday morning.

“It's an irritation behind the pastern,” Baffert explained. “It got real soft and wet and irritated. We keep them done up in the back and he wasn't done up yet. When he walked on that gravel it irritated him.”


Baffert reported that the “minor” irritation will not cost Justify any training time, and that he expects the colt to make the Preakness Stakes in two weeks' time. The condition is being treated with Furacin, a topical ointment.

“A lot of horses have it,” Baffert said. “It comes and goes but it's the kind of thing we deal with. It happens to a lot of them.

“He actually looked unbelievable this morning,” Baffert said of Justify, his fifth Kentucky Derby winner in 23 years. “Too bad I walked him on gravel.”

[Andy Asaro]

According to Baffert, reached by telephone on Sunday afternoon, Justify has a fairly common condition known as “scratches” below the pastern of his left hind ankle. The condition – called “mud fever” by some – is characterized by an irritation of the skin above the hoof, almost like chapped lips in a person. It is caused by constant wetting and over-drying of the skin, which allows various microorganisms to invade microscopic cracks in the skin and multiply.


After his trip over the wet, muddy going at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Justify's condition was slightly irritated on Sunday morning.

“It's an irritation behind the pastern,” Baffert explained. “It got real soft and wet and irritated. We keep them done up in the back and he wasn't done up yet. When he walked on that gravel it irritated him.”


Baffert reported that the “minor” irritation will not cost Justify any training time, and that he expects the colt to make the Preakness Stakes in two weeks' time. The condition is being treated with Furacin, a topical ointment.

“A lot of horses have it,” Baffert said. “It comes and goes but it's the kind of thing we deal with. It happens to a lot of them.

“He actually looked unbelievable this morning,” Baffert said of Justify, his fifth Kentucky Derby winner in 23 years. “Too bad I walked him on gravel.”

Nobody I've talked to believes his explanation.

[SecretAgentMan]

Nobody I've talked to believes his explanation.


Let's see how Justify is moving around next week.

[Grits]

SAM, if you'd take the time to look just a few posts up you'd see we've already posted and discussed this....

You can still be all over Justify like white on rice in two weeks, like you said. Just keep that hotline to Bob open before you let go of your money.

I plan to wait. ;)

[dilanesp]

Maybe Justify was a more apt name than Winstar realized! :)

[PointGiven]

We will see but for now I believe Bob. Mostly because of what my eyes are seeing.

Go back a que up video and enlarge it. Forward to : 49 and watch just that. Now rewind to the same spot focused only on his hips. Do it again focused only on his shoes. Again focused only at the top of the wraps on both legs.

Tell me what you see.

[SecretAgentMan]

SAM, if you'd take the time to look just a few posts up you'd see we've already posted and discussed this....

You can still be all over Justify like white on rice in two weeks, like you said. Just keep that hotline to Bob open before you let go of your money.

I plan to wait. ;)



I will wait to play him on Preakness day if everything is a go from Baffert, no advanced wagering for me.

[SkunkApe]

What motive could Baffert have for covering up an injury?

[PowerUpPaynter]

I will wait to play him on Preakness day if everything is a go from Baffert, no advanced wagering for me.


how can he even be playable. the Preakness payouts will be brutal with a small field and a 1/5 - 1/9 favorite

[SecretAgentMan]

how can he even be playable. the Preakness payouts will be brutal with a small field and a 1/5 - 1/9 favorite




I loads up on Smarty Jones at 3/5 & he paid $3.40........American Pharaoh paid $3.80.......Big Brown went off 1/5 & paid $2.40, but at 1/5, i bet him big for 2nd & received $2.60.........3 big favorites

If I see Justify at 1/5, he will pay more for 2nd, & I will bet him for place. If he's healthy & is 2/5 or 3/5, I will bet him to win.

Too many people try to beat great horses in the Preakness & its very hard to do IMO.......if he's healthy, only way I see Justify losing is if another disaster like Barbaro happens, which I hope never happens again.

With all the talk of Justify being lame on his left leg/foot, I'm hoping his odds are 3/5 or higher (wishful thinking)

[f2tornado]

how can he even be playable. the Preakness payouts will be brutal with a small field and a 1/5 - 1/9 favorite

The American Pharoah $1 Trifecta paid almost $500. The $1 Super paid close to two grand. You can still get paid very well if a bomber comes in the money. You would otherwise need to hit the chalk cold to get a decent ROI. I’ll typically add at least one ticket with another horse on top just in case the chalk doesn’t fire. That worked well when AP tanked the Travers.

[PaceAdvantage]

This thread went from informative to ridiculous in no time flat.

[Spalding No!]

What motive could Baffert have for covering up an injury?
Probably doesn't know what the actual injury or insult is at this point. I doubt they would skip doing the appropriate workup to figure out what's going on.

Hopefully they don't delay getting the relevant tests done in order to avoid the prying eyes of the media et al. With just 13 days to the next one there isn't a lot of time to waste.

[boys at tosconova]

holy chit, the horse didn't even look like he was going to make it back into the barn.

i don;t now about you but from the look of things i was worried that the next turn one of those legs were going to snap.

so scratches is the new swamp gas?

[sammy the sage]

What motive could Baffert have for covering up an injury?

Dude is NOT a saint....killed 7 horses with HIGH thyroid doses....and trainer's DO run an injured horse now and then...ask Pletcher...the champ of that...

[Fager Fan]

Grits,


To be honest, the horse did walk like a horse that has a cracked heel ( but he did not from what I saw) OR very raw and skin sore heels at the hairline. Hope people that don't know what a cracked heel is don't start thinking I mean a bone crack. It is a skin cracking similar to if you happen to be prone to dry skin and in the winter if your hands get wet, the skin will crack. It hurts to the touch or to stretch the skin. But horses walk that way also because of a bruised foot which can happen anytime. If it is skin, it will heel fine. If it is a bruised foot, that will typically heel in 3-4 days as well. If it is something worse, we will know soon enough. I hope not.

What gets me is IMO there is no way Baffert walks that horse out there on the hard stone dust if he is aware the horse will look like that. NO WAY ! He couldn't have had any idea, could he?
So now he is in full damage control. If he gets beat in two weeks, the whole world will be on his butt. Heck, if he wins, people will swear he's a butcher just for running him. He must be some kinda upset at being put in that position for everyone to be in pounce mode no matter what happens.

The horse is a chestnut, and does have some white back there, making him more susceptible to skin conditions than other colors might be. But what a terrible spot he is in now. Wow.

Oh, and that picture on the link is ridiculous. I saw a quarter crack, no shoe, hoof rot, and a fully infected front coronet band. Would have seen more but it was making me sick.

By the way, the Johnny Weir comment was classic !!! Too funny Grits. Your the greatest.

That too is what I wondered. Why in hell did Baffert lead out a lame horse? That was the only explanation I could come up with too - he didn't know the horse was lame when he led him out there.

Almost as disturbing is that it took readers to point out how lame he was. All those reporters and yet not one of them knew (or reported) a lame horse when they saw one.

This wasn't the Baffert barn's best moment, having Baffert declare him coming out of the race in fantastic shape as he led around a lame horse.

I don't have any reason to doubt the explanation for the lameness, but as a bettor I'd be trying to find out if he's still sore on that foot when he runs in two weeks, yet it doesn't appear one can trust either Baffert or the media to report accurately that information to them.

[GMB@BP]

Dude is NOT a saint....killed 7 horses with HIGH thyroid doses....and trainer's DO run an injured horse now and then...ask Pletcher...the champ of that...

all these trainers walk the fine line, i have no problem with playing in the gray area, sometimes it has some consequences, we as bettors and those who are onwers are to blame for accepting this.

its the blatant, in your face, claim a horse for 20k and improve them to a stake horse overnight.

[Grits]

Almost as disturbing is that it took readers to point out how lame he was. All those reporters and yet not one of them knew (or reported) a lame horse when they saw one.

This wasn't the Baffert barn's best moment, having Baffert declare him coming out of the race in fantastic shape as he led around a lame horse.


Fager, I thought about this, as well, when I posted the video. Reporters circled probably ten deep, and no one said a word. I'm not sure if it's that many are enamored of Bob's greatness as a horseman or if it's that he is usually in control of the narrative.

[Fager Fan]

Fager, I thought about this, as well, when I posted the video. Reporters circled probably ten deep, and no one said a word. I'm not sure if it's that many are enamored of Bob's greatness as a horseman or if it's that he is usually in control of the narrative.

Hopefully a few were knowledgable enough to see the obvious, even if they were hesitant to yell it out at the time. But what about after? No one wrote anything about him being lame until the comments on the video came fast and furious, and then the articles have all been explaining how he's not lame. Not lame? Maybe not serious, but he's NOT not lame.

[Robert Fischer]

The youtube comments sections(in general, not pointing this specific video) may just be the most nonsensical public forum in the history of the universe.

Think LoneF's trolling behavior minus any formal (or informal) education.

They make the triple crown section at it's most bizarre and fervent, look like Plato's inner-circle...


I wouldn't let anything said in the comment section of a youtube influence you.

I would use your eyes. I would be honest with your own circle of competency.

For me, this is outside my circle of competency. I can see that there is something of interest, and that when the horse was led around, he was not moving smoothly and seemed to bear the majority of his weight on his right leg. I don't know exactly (or roughly) how significant that is. I'll be watching his gallop and his paddock and his parade before I commit to anything. I am interested, but I don't consider myself competent enough to form an opinion.

[Spalding No!]

I can see that there is something of interest, and that when the horse was led around, he was not moving smoothly and seemed to bear the majority of his weight on his right leg. I don't know exactly (or roughly) how significant that is. I'll be watching his gallop and his paddock and his parade before I commit to anything. I am interested, but I don't consider myself competent enough to form an opinion.
Unfortunately, we'll be on the outside looking in throughout the whole process.

Simply put, if the horse is exhibiting lameness-whether consistently or intermittently--when only walking (as opposed to a faster gait), it is a significant degree of lameness.

However, that is not to say that the underlying issue necessarily precludes a start in the Preakness (or any future starts for that matter). Both a horse with a fractured bone and a horse with a foot bruise or abscess might walk in the same manner. Properly addressed, a foot issue can resolve fairly quickly in a matter of days (which is why it is often the "go-to" response by a trainer when explaining away a horse exhibiting discomfort right on top of a race).

The Triple Crown is littered with horses that had highly publicized physical issues right on top of the race. In 1989, Sunday Silence, only a week before the Preakness, came out of a morning gallop lame on his right foreleg. His trainer, Charlie Whittingham, believed it to be a foot bruise and surmised that all the recent training and racing the colt had done on wet tracks (where it is soft and loose on top but can expose the horse to the hard track base) led to his condition. Nevertheless, a fracture was ruled out with the appropriate tests. The horse wore bar shoes all the way to the day before the race and ultimately won the race in a thriller over the great Easy Goer.

Perhaps the curious thing in the case of Justify is that his connections did not immediately jump on a foot bruise as--at the very least--the likely excuse for his appearance yesterday. Given the wet track and blistering early pace, that fits much better than a condition (scratches) that takes a while to develop and is often a sign of poor stable management.

[Robert Fischer]

Perhaps the curious thing in the case of Justify is that his connections did not immediately jump on a foot bruise as--at the very least--the likely excuse for his appearance yesterday. Given the wet track and blistering early pace, that fits much better than a condition (scratches) that takes a while to develop and is often a sign of poor stable management.

Have to leave some possibility that it's true. Maybe it's true.

Seems weird, because the explanation seemed geared toward the flesh rather than why he's favoring a leg. Maybe it's true, and it bothers him quite a bit.

If it was damage control, they did a good job. Story is not being run. No one in racing media wants to put pressure on the reputation of the game and the owners and the trainers.
The reality of the sport is a harsh one - It's driven by money. These windows of opportunity open, and the handlers have to do their best to take a shot. They aren't going to hold off the Preakness until August so that Justify can get to 1000%. But this is one of the few times a year the spotlight hits the game, and you just can't say "Oh, he's dealing with a tendon issue, but this race could mean tens-of-millions, so we're going to mask the pain and try to get him to run near his best". If a football player plays the Superbowl with a concussion, or a torn acl, or a separated shoulder, -he's considered brave or even 'heroic'. Horses don't get to volunteer. Someone asked why would a trainer downplay. Because he's gonna run, and there's a certain code that protects the sport, and the humans.

[098poi]

On another note Bolt came out ok. Here's an article about him and his trainer post derby. No excuses. I had him as my pick and if he lost so did I. No savers without him top. I am disappointed he lost but proud of myself for sticking to my pick. Ruis seems to be handling it well.


http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/columnists/bryce-miller/sd-sp-miller-derbycolumn-20180506-story.html

[Grits]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Baffert_says_Justify_s_hind_leg_so_much_better_Mon day_morning_123

Baffert said he has scheduled four to five days of just walking for Justify as he trains up to the second leg of the Triple Crown, the May 19 Preakness Stakes (https://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2018_Preakness_Stakes). The earliest it’s expected to see the horse back on track is Wednesday.

[SkunkApe]

The youtube comments sections(in general, not pointing this specific video) may just be the most nonsensical public forum in the history of the universe.

Think LoneF's trolling behavior minus any formal (or informal) education.

They make the triple crown section at it's most bizarre and fervent, look like Plato's inner-circle...


I wouldn't let anything said in the comment section of a youtube influence you.

I would use your eyes. I would be honest with your own circle of competency.

For me, this is outside my circle of competency. I can see that there is something of interest, and that when the horse was led around, he was not moving smoothly and seemed to bear the majority of his weight on his right leg. I don't know exactly (or roughly) how significant that is. I'll be watching his gallop and his paddock and his parade before I commit to anything. I am interested, but I don't consider myself competent enough to form an opinion.

Robert Fischer is my favorite poster.

[Gerard02]

YOu can clearly see him limping a bit.

[Spalding No!]

If it was damage control, they did a good job. Story is not being run. No one in racing media wants to put pressure on the reputation of the game and the owners and the trainers.
A weak-willed and complicit racing media is one of the worst attributes the sport currently suffers from.

But this is one of the few times a year the spotlight hits the game, and you just can't say "Oh, he's dealing with a tendon issue, but this race could mean tens-of-millions, so we're going to mask the pain and try to get him to run near his best".
Sure you can--sans the bolded portion--if you operate with transparency, honesty, and concern. Sunday Silence's lameness was not covered up, and Whittingham even stated that had it been a race of lower quality than the Preakness he would have skipped the race and given the horse enough time to completely recover. No one--in print anyways--balked at that declaration because Whittingham was pursuing the problem, calling in the appropriate experts, and monitoring the horse closely up until the day of the race.

Louie Roussel did the same with Risen Star before the Belmont in 1988. That colt had a major issue--a strained suspensory--and the progression of the issue was reported in the press. The colt won the race by a pole but had to be retired only a few weeks later. I don't recall too much backlash in the press, but certainly Roussel was not sugar-coating the issue and was transparent with everything going on behind the scenes leading up to his decision to run.

I don't expect that Justify will run in the Preakness if he has a major problem. However, the connections of Justify--and the racing media--will be doing the sport a disservice if they brush this off as merely a few incidental missteps the day after the Derby and don't follow up on the horse's condition publicly, if for no other reason than failing to show to the public that concern for the horse's well-being is the top priority.

That's what was displayed with Sunday Silence and Risen Star regardless of the ultimate outcomes and regardless of whether on an individual level one agreed with the conduct of their handlers in pursuing a major race with an physically-compromised horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

The publicity office of Maryland Jockey Club reports trainer Bob Baffert said May 7 he was not concerned about a condition in the left hind foot.


"It's not an issue," the Hall of Fame trainer said. "It was sensitive there. It's like a diaper rash, what he's got. He looked great today."


Jimmy Barnes, Baffert's chief assistant who is overseeing Justify's care at Churchill Downs, reported that "all was good" with the Derby winner, who had his second walk day Monday and likely will have two more before returning to the track.

[Fager Fan]

PETA Senior Vice President Kathy Guillermo issued the following statement: “PETA is calling on the stewards at Churchill Downs to order an immediate and independent veterinary examination of Justify and to review all his veterinary records and medications for the last year. He appeared to be avoiding putting weight on his left hind leg at a news conference yesterday–a condition dismissed by trainer Bob Baffert as “scratches” brought on by the muddy track at the Kentucky Derby. However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic. PETA wants to know: Has Justify been suffering from a chronic ailment that has led to lameness, or is he injured? If he’s injured, he must not be allowed to race in the Preakness–and PETA is not confident that Mr. Baffert will reveal the horse’s true condition.”

[cj]

On another note Bolt came out ok. Here's an article about him and his trainer post derby. No excuses. I had him as my pick and if he lost so did I. No savers without him top. I am disappointed he lost but proud of myself for sticking to my pick. Ruis seems to be handling it well.


http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/columnists/bryce-miller/sd-sp-miller-derbycolumn-20180506-story.html

The only excuse was the idiotic ride which was probably suggested by Ruis.

[PointGiven]

PETA Senior Vice President Kathy Guillermo issued the following statement: “PETA is calling on the stewards at Churchill Downs to order an immediate and independent veterinary examination of Justify and to review all his veterinary records and medications for the last year. He appeared to be avoiding putting weight on his left hind leg at a news conference yesterday–a condition dismissed by trainer Bob Baffert as “scratches” brought on by the muddy track at the Kentucky Derby. However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic. PETA wants to know: Has Justify been suffering from a chronic ailment that has led to lameness, or is he injured? If he’s injured, he must not be allowed to race in the Preakness–and PETA is not confident that Mr. Baffert will reveal the horse’s true condition.”

How is it that peta is in the postion to demand anything? Why is the general public so dumb?

[LoneF]

Robert Fischer is my favorite poster.

I thought you said I was your favorite poster .

[Tom]

He reminded me of a second stage of a Saturn rocket - just as Justify "blasted" into the stretch, he quietly fell back and away, having no more fuel left.

From now on, I shall refer to him as "Sham!"

(There is no truth to the rumor that Smith yelled back to Victor, "Hold my beer and watch this!")

[Ruffian1]

PETA Senior Vice President Kathy Guillermo issued the following statement: “PETA is calling on the stewards at Churchill Downs to order an immediate and independent veterinary examination of Justify and to review all his veterinary records and medications for the last year. He appeared to be avoiding putting weight on his left hind leg at a news conference yesterday–a condition dismissed by trainer Bob Baffert as “scratches” brought on by the muddy track at the Kentucky Derby. However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic. PETA wants to know: Has Justify been suffering from a chronic ailment that has led to lameness, or is he injured? If he’s injured, he must not be allowed to race in the Preakness–and PETA is not confident that Mr. Baffert will reveal the horse’s true condition.”

This is completely untrue.

[clicknow]

This is completely untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mud_fever
Mud fever is a chronic but progressive dermatitis. It affects all breeds of horses, but it is most common in heavy draft horses like the Clydesdales. It often starts as a small red ulceration of the skin in the plantar pastern region of the legs.

Merck Veterinary Manual:
The condition can become chronic, with vegetative granulomas. Lameness may or may not be present;
https://www.merckvetmanual.com/musculoskeletal-system/lameness-in-horses/scratches-in-horses

The Horse:
https://thehorse.com/127027/understanding-scratches/


All that said, Justify is not some pasture pony, he is a multimillion dollar well cared for horse ......so I doubt very much he will become lame as he gets royal treatment and the best veterinary care.

However, you are wrong that scratches "can't" cause lameness. Because it does, and there are posts all over the internet by horse owners who have (acutely but not necessarily forever) horses with scratches who are somewhat lame during an acute attack.)

Again, in a horse like Justify, or any top class race horse, the implication of lameness of any great magnitude is highly unlikely and sort of ridiculous at this point.

[Grits]

It's now being reported that Justify has a heel bruise. KHRC's Mary Scollay states she'd have no problem running him in the Preakness. Story is at Courier Journal and Horse Racing Nation.

[Spalding No!]

It's now being reported that Justify has a heel bruise. KHRC's Mary Scollay states she'd have no problem running him in the Preakness. Story is at Courier Journal and Horse Racing Nation.
That's great, if for no other reason than we won't have to read about "scratches" anymore.

Unless the heel bruise rears its ugly head again before the Preakness and we hear about a different sort or "scratch"...

[cj]

That's great, if for no other reason than we won't have to read about "scratches" anymore.

Unless the heel bruise rears its ugly head again before the Preakness and we hear about a different sort or "scratch"...

Trainers really should never be answering medical questions IMO anyway.

[Ruffian1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mud_fever
Mud fever is a chronic but progressive dermatitis. It affects all breeds of horses, but it is most common in heavy draft horses like the Clydesdales. It often starts as a small red ulceration of the skin in the plantar pastern region of the legs.

Merck Veterinary Manual:
The condition can become chronic, with vegetative granulomas. Lameness may or may not be present;
https://www.merckvetmanual.com/musculoskeletal-system/lameness-in-horses/scratches-in-horses

The Horse:
https://thehorse.com/127027/understanding-scratches/


All that said, Justify is not some pasture pony, he is a multimillion dollar well cared for horse ......so I doubt very much he will become lame as he gets royal treatment and the best veterinary care.

However, you are wrong that scratches "can't" cause lameness. Because it does, and there are posts all over the internet by horse owners who have (acutely but not necessarily forever) horses with scratches who are somewhat lame during an acute attack.)

Again, in a horse like Justify, or any top class race horse, the implication of lameness of any great magnitude is highly unlikely and sort of ridiculous at this point.

I never said "scratches" can't.

What I was referring to was this, which was in bold print:

However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic.

ONLY WHEN IT'S CHRONIC.

And I am not yelling, I am making them all caps so you can read them clearly.

That is a complete lie. And Wikipedia? Really??

Maybe we can get a close up of those scratches. I looked for them but could not see any signs of them or any signs of furicin discoloring on the white portion of the hair in the heel area that Bob said they did him up in all the time. If that was true, there would indeed be discoloration over time unless they stopped for 5-7 days typically.


I read this in here 2 days ago, in the midst of Bob's damage control. Seems like this might have been it.

"To be honest, the horse did walk like a horse that has a cracked heel ( but he did not from what I saw) OR very raw and skin sore heels at the hairline. Hope people that don't know what a cracked heel is don't start thinking I mean a bone crack. It is a skin cracking similar to if you happen to be prone to dry skin and in the winter if your hands get wet, the skin will crack. It hurts to the touch or to stretch the skin. But horses walk that way also because of a bruised foot which can happen anytime. If it is skin, it will heel fine. If it is a bruised foot, that will typically heel in 3-4 days as well. If it is something worse, we will know soon enough. I hope not.

[Ruffian1]

Trainers really should never be answering medical questions IMO anyway.

This !!

[clicknow]

Trainers really should never be answering medical questions IMO anyway.

If bettors had access to the veterinary records of declared starters, there wouldn't be a problem.

If they have blood in their mouth, nose or trachea after a workout or race, I want to know about it. If they are roarers, I want to know about it. If they have active tendonitis, I want to know about it. If they are receiving any kind of medical therapy for a chronic ortho condition, I want to know about it.

Heck, if they even have a cut on their fetlock I want to know about it.

I guess that's why U.S. racing gets about 75% less of my wagering dollar now, which instead goes to HK and Japan. I keep about 25% still here but mostly only use it at my local.

I can't risk my hard earned dollars on crips and drugs that I don't know about.

[GMB@BP]

Baffert has actually very little to gain running anything but a sound horse in the Preakness.

I dont even know if winning the Preakness over a crap field is going to do much to enhance his value. Sure maybe the triple crown, but even then, his value to me feels pretty much set.

If he aint right we will see him at the Haskell.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Baffert has actually very little to gain running anything but a sound horse in the Preakness.

I dont even know if winning the Preakness over a crap field is going to do much to enhance his value. Sure maybe the triple crown, but even then, his value to me feels pretty much set.

If he aint right we will see him at the Haskell.

In the Haskell vs McKinzie hopefully

[SecretAgentMan]

Baffert has actually very little to gain running anything but a sound horse in the Preakness.

I dont even know if winning the Preakness over a crap field is going to do much to enhance his value. Sure maybe the triple crown, but even then, his value to me feels pretty much set.

If he aint right we will see him at the Haskell.




Yeah, I agree.......no way Baffert will risk Justify to injury.......if he's good to go, Baffert will run him.

[Hoops McCann]

he looked good in a gallop this morning.

[SecretAgentMan]

he looked good in a gallop this morning.




You looked great out there this morning......let's see if he continues to look good up to the Preakness.

[BlueChip@DRF]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhJDNiaq180

[Rex Phinney]

Baffert has actually very little to gain running anything but a sound horse in the Preakness.

I dont even know if winning the Preakness over a crap field is going to do much to enhance his value. Sure maybe the triple crown, but even then, his value to me feels pretty much set.

If he aint right we will see him at the Haskell.

I agree 100%. I cannot recall a time when Baffert sent anything but a full go horse in a big race. If he is bringing a champ to the ring the champ is ready.

I think back to all those seemingly random horses he shows up with every year at the Haskell. They come out of nowhere with loads of hype and they win every time.

I was at Santa Anita the day Shared Belief beat California Chrome in the San Antonio. As the grandstands were emptying and Art Sherman is making his way out of his box you hear someone yell "OMG ART DID YOU BRING A SHORT HORSE TO THIS RACE? OF ALL RACES, C"MON ART! YOU KNOW BETTER!" I survey the rows of now empty seats looking for the cuplrit, a surely drunken patron, maybe an unimpressed bettor tearing up over worthless Chrome tickets. But no, the lone sole shouting out to Art Sherman that day was the indeed, Bob Baffert.

[dilanesp]

I agree 100%. I cannot recall a time when Baffert sent anything but a full go horse in a big race. If he is bringing a champ to the ring the champ is ready.

I think back to all those seemingly random horses he shows up with every year at the Haskell. They come out of nowhere with loads of hype and they win every time.

I was at Santa Anita the day Shared Belief beat California Chrome in the San Antonio. As the grandstands were emptying and Art Sherman is making his way out of his box you hear someone yell "OMG ART DID YOU BRING A SHORT HORSE TO THIS RACE? OF ALL RACES, C"MON ART! YOU KNOW BETTER!" I survey the rows of now empty seats looking for the cuplrit, a surely drunken patron, maybe an unimpressed bettor tearing up over worthless Chrome tickets. But no, the lone sole shouting out to Art Sherman that day was the indeed, Bob Baffert.

Um, two of Arrogate's last three races don't reflect well on Baffert.

[GMB@BP]

Um, two of Arrogate's last three races don't reflect well on Baffert.

cause the horse didint run well? I dont see how that is a condemnation of baffert. the horse was fine physically. these are animals not machines

[dilanesp]

cause the horse didint run well? I dont see how that is a condemnation of baffert. the horse was fine physically. these are animals not machines

The horse was short. The previous poost claimed Baffert never brought a short horse to a big race.

[GaryG]

Point Given was short for the derby. I believe Baffert said that he made the mistake of training him for the TC instead of the derby. PG won the Preakness and Belmont and I am pretty sure Monarchos never won another race.

[JustRalph]

Point Given was short for the derby. I believe Baffert said that he made the mistake of training him for the TC instead of the derby. PG won the Preakness and Belmont and I am pretty sure Monarchos never won another race.

Monarchos was interesting. I remember 30 seconds after the race my father said to me..... “that horse will never win again”

He went on to tell me how there is a place you can push them to only once. They never recover.........

[Rex Phinney]

Um, two of Arrogate's last three races don't reflect well on Baffert.

You’re forgetting all the things people were saying about Arrogate before the Pegasus. Lots of people were convinced the horse wasn’t right and he showed up and hammered that field.

It’s not Baffert’s fault if the horse just lost it. Aroogate just faded to finish his career. Arrogate lost a step, plain and simple. Nothing Baffert could have done to change that.

That’s small potatoes compared to, for example Pletcher. Who got Uncle Mo’s ass kicked repeatedly, never figured out Quality Road and then the big cherry on top named Life at Ten.

When it comes to training a champion horse and bringing the horse in to turn in a quality effort Baffert is untouchable. No one can win every race, but if it’s a prized horse in a big money situation no way will Baffert run anything but his fastest bullet.

If Justify shows up for the Preakness he will win by open lengths. No question. This race won’t have anyone in the same galaxy as him talent wise.

[Fager Fan]

You’re forgetting all the things people were saying about Arrogate before the Pegasus. Lots of people were convinced the horse wasn’t right and he showed up and hammered that field.

It’s not Baffert’s fault if the horse just lost it. Aroogate just faded to finish his career. Arrogate lost a step, plain and simple. Nothing Baffert could have done to change that.

That’s small potatoes compared to, for example Pletcher. Who got Uncle Mo’s ass kicked repeatedly, never figured out Quality Road and then the big cherry on top named Life at Ten.

When it comes to training a champion horse and bringing the horse in to turn in a quality effort Baffert is untouchable. No one can win every race, but if it’s a prized horse in a big money situation no way will Baffert run anything but his fastest bullet.

If Justify shows up for the Preakness he will win by open lengths. No question. This race won’t have anyone in the same galaxy as him talent wise.

A horse doesn't "lose a step" after a whopping 3 top races in a whopping 11 race career.

[Vinnie]

Unusually and most peculiarly Arrogate did just that... :)

[Fager Fan]

Unusually and most peculiarly Arrogate did just that... :)

:)

[Prioress Ply]

:)

In 1988 Criminal Type won the Santa Anita Derby as a six year old. Super Diamond won a GII the next year as a 9 year old. Fourstardave was winning stakes races when he was 10. Wake me the next time any of Baffert's "championship horses" make it to that age and remain on top. It's a fair question to ask why.

[Grits]

This is an honest question that I can't fully recall an answer to. Maybe Spaulding would know...given he has, I swear, a photographic memory!

Have any of Bob's champions gone on to become leading sires, or better yet, sire of sires. I can't recall a one. If not, why not?

I was only able to find this, in addition to remembering Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem, Silver Bullet Day, a couple of others. But you all may know far more than me. I only recall his champions that have "flattened out" in the breeding shed. :confused:

http://bradleythoroughbreds.com/trainers/bob-baffert/

[GMB@BP]

Midnight Lute

[cj]

This is an honest question that I can't fully recall an answer to. Maybe Spaulding would know...given he has, I swear, a photographic memory!

Have any of Bob's champions gone on to become leading sires, or better yet, sire of sires. I can't recall a one. If not, why not?

I was only able to find this, in addition to remembering Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem, Silver Bullet Day, a couple of others. But you all may know far more than me. I only recall his champions that have "flattened out" in the breeding shed. :confused:

http://bradleythoroughbreds.com/trainers/bob-baffert/

Silverbulletday was never going to be a leading sire. :):):)

[Rex Phinney]

In 1988 Criminal Type won the Santa Anita Derby as a six year old. Super Diamond won a GII the next year as a 9 year old. Fourstardave was winning stakes races when he was 10. Wake me the next time any of Baffert's "championship horses" make it to that age and remain on top. It's a fair question to ask why.

I don't know much about Criminal Type, but I think it's safe to say he did not win the Santa Anita Derby at age 6...

I do know that Baffert trained Game on Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap at age 7. He did it in 1:58 and change and beat Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man.

Breeding is the overwhelmingly simple answer to your question of why Baffert's horses don't stay on top longer. Baffert cannot control when the horses are retired to stud, the higher up on the quality scale you go the sooner they are retired.

[Grits]

Silverbulletday was never going to be a leading sire. :):):)

:lol: Dis is true...very good observation! :lol:

[dilanesp]

You’re forgetting all the things people were saying about Arrogate before the Pegasus. Lots of people were convinced the horse wasn’t right and he showed up and hammered that field.

It’s not Baffert’s fault if the horse just lost it. Aroogate just faded to finish his career. Arrogate lost a step, plain and simple. Nothing Baffert could have done to change that.

That’s small potatoes compared to, for example Pletcher. Who got Uncle Mo’s ass kicked repeatedly, never figured out Quality Road and then the big cherry on top named Life at Ten.

When it comes to training a champion horse and bringing the horse in to turn in a quality effort Baffert is untouchable. No one can win every race, but if it’s a prized horse in a big money situation no way will Baffert run anything but his fastest bullet.

If Justify shows up for the Preakness he will win by open lengths. No question. This race won’t have anyone in the same galaxy as him talent wise.

I actually agree with your overall point. I just don't think it is true that Baffert never runs a short horse. He is obviously much better than Pletcher.

[dilanesp]

I don't know much about Criminal Type, but I think it's safe to say he did not win the Santa Anita Derby at age 6...

I do know that Baffert trained Game on Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap at age 7. He did it in 1:58 and change and beat Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man.

Breeding is the overwhelmingly simple answer to your question of why Baffert's horses don't stay on top longer. Baffert cannot control when the horses are retired to stud, the higher up on the quality scale you go the sooner they are retired.

Baffert doesn't get nearly enough credit for the job he did with Game on Dude.

[Rex Phinney]

A horse doesn't "lose a step" after a whopping 3 top races in a whopping 11 race career.

So you think that after Arrogate's performance in the Travers, the Classic, Pegasus and Dubai Baffert suddenly forgot what was making the horse go?

C'mon you're smarter than that. The horse went to Dubai and was never the same after. It's not like this is a new happening.

We are talking about a trainer who has the only Triple Crown winner in 40 years, the richest racehorse ever, more BC Classic winners than anyone and 5 Derby victories to his credit.

He is 4 for 4 with Derby winners in the Preakness, that is enough right there to say when Baffert gets a good horse he doesn't mess it up. Baffert is also probably the greatest ever at shipping horses.

He has his limitations (turf racing and fillies are probably best left to someone else) but for big races on dirt there is no denying Baffert's upside.

[Robert Fischer]

For me, this is outside my circle of competency. I can see that there is something of interest, and that when the horse was led around, he was not moving smoothly and seemed to bear the majority of his weight on his right leg. I don't know exactly (or roughly) how significant that is. I'll be watching his gallop and his paddock and his parade before I commit to anything. I am interested, but I don't consider myself competent enough to form an opinion.


I still don't know diddley!

I've seen one soft gallop, presumably with pain medicine and treatment, and a different shoe-type.

Did not see enough to have an opinion in either direction.

I've seen enough that I will not 'bridge jump' on Justify. I've seen enough that I will not cold 'single' him in multis like the Derby (Haven't seen anything to actually use another 'A', but enough to use a 'B' or two).


Meanwhile, the public has had an irrational field day. I've seen him be diagnosed as 'lame' based on a short video of tight circles the day after the race. I've seen him been proclaimed as 'good-to-go' based upon the words of his trainer and/or a 30 second video of him doing a light gallop... These were confidently stated as fact.

From a betting standpoint, you have to be able to readily admit your incompetence.

[dilanesp]

I still don't know diddley!

I've seen one soft gallop, presumably with pain medicine and treatment, and a different shoe-type.

Did not see enough to have an opinion in either direction.

I've seen enough that I will not 'bridge jump' on Justify. I've seen enough that I will not cold 'single' him in multis like the Derby (Haven't seen anything to actually use another 'A', but enough to use a 'B' or two).


Meanwhile, the public has had an irrational field day. I've seen him be diagnosed as 'lame' based on a short video of tight circles the day after the race. I've seen him been proclaimed as 'good-to-go' based upon the words of his trainer and/or a 30 second video of him doing a light gallop... These were confidently stated as fact.

From a betting standpoint, you have to be able to readily admit your incompetence.

Good post imo

Certainly if you are not someone who regularly does sight handicapping and have the proper background to evaluate this information, you should proceed with caution.

[Ruffian1]

I still don't know diddley!

I've seen one soft gallop, presumably with pain medicine and treatment, and a different shoe-type.

Did not see enough to have an opinion in either direction.

I've seen enough that I will not 'bridge jump' on Justify. I've seen enough that I will not cold 'single' him in multis like the Derby (Haven't seen anything to actually use another 'A', but enough to use a 'B' or two).


Meanwhile, the public has had an irrational field day. I've seen him be diagnosed as 'lame' based on a short video of tight circles the day after the race. I've seen him been proclaimed as 'good-to-go' based upon the words of his trainer and/or a 30 second video of him doing a light gallop... These were confidently stated as fact.

From a betting standpoint, you have to be able to readily admit your incompetence.

Honestly, he was lame on Sunday from the bruised heel and he was sound galloping off in the video. He very well could have been treated with bute for his 1st day back. But no way bute takes him from where he was on sunday to the gallop off video. And it doesn't really matter now either way.
The shoe 3/4rd is exactly what you do early with a bruised heel . However, he will be best served for the race with a full shoe on. As previously stated, things like bruised heels do typically toughen up in about 3-4 days but once the pounding starts again, they can flair back up but usually don't. You will definitely have to wait and see to be sure. That is a good plan. Time will tell. Let's hope he is fine in 8 days.

[lansdale]

This is an honest question that I can't fully recall an answer to. Maybe Spaulding would know...given he has, I swear, a photographic memory!

Have any of Bob's champions gone on to become leading sires, or better yet, sire of sires. I can't recall a one. If not, why not?

I was only able to find this, in addition to remembering Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem, Silver Bullet Day, a couple of others. But you all may know far more than me. I only recall his champions that have "flattened out" in the breeding shed. :confused:

http://bradleythoroughbreds.com/trainers/bob-baffert/

Not surprised a woman noticed this. ;-)

[Robert Fischer]

Good post imo

Certainly if you are not someone who regularly does sight handicapping and have the proper background to evaluate this information, you should proceed with caution.
Honestly, he was lame on Sunday from the bruised heel and he was sound galloping off in the video. He very well could have been treated with bute for his 1st day back. But no way bute takes him from where he was on sunday to the gallop off video. And it doesn't really matter now either way.
The shoe 3/4rd is exactly what you do early with a bruised heel . However, he will be best served for the race with a full shoe on. As previously stated, things like bruised heels do typically toughen up in about 3-4 days but once the pounding starts again, they can flair back up but usually don't. You will definitely have to wait and see to be sure. That is a good plan. Time will tell. Let's hope he is fine in 8 days.


If it wasn't the Preakness, I'd default to "pass the race".

Unless I came to the conclusion that Justify is a complete toss(and playing 'against' him here is extremely unlikely for me at this point), the value of the race for me will depend on the under-card races. That's where I'll focus. Try to see how the multis shape up for me. If I can't find any value, or any entropy/chaos(this is what made my day in Derby undercard) in the undercard, I'll be watching as a fan, rooting for a healthy, fast Justify to take the 2nd jewel.

[señorclipclop]

Is this the same hoof that he had the shoe issue with in the SA Derby?

[SecretAgentMan]

Weather is calling for rain Tue thru next Sunday. Still a week away, & hope its light rain, not like the stuff we saw in Kentucky, but it won't matter for Justify, he can win on anything.

[Spalding No!]

Have any of Bob's champions gone on to become leading sires, or better yet, sire of sires. I can't recall a one. If not, why not?

Weren't champions but Pioneerof The Nile and Indian Charlie have made a dent in the breeding shed. Roman Ruler was all the rage in South America apparently. Bodemeister is questionable, but did get a Kentucky Derby winner right off the bat. Forestry got Preakness winner Shackleford.

Also, Midshipman, El Corredor, The Factor and Lookin At Lucky have been useful.

[Fager Fan]

I think his sire results have been ok. They're probably even with Pletcher and others who retire dozens to stud.

I think it's interesting that Baffert happens to get the Derby winner and many freakish good horses in his barn. Are we overlooking Mr. Super Agent who is picking out all these horses for the barn? No, because they're coming from different agents/owners. Maybe there's something to rolling in at 8am and leaving that 4 or 5am start times for the schmuck trainers? I doubt it.

I don't know the answer. I was starting to think he may just be that good of a trainer, then 7 horses dropped dead. I now look at him and his horses with skepticism.

[GMB@BP]

Pletchers barn has always been roughly double the size of Bafferts. I would say right now its 3x the size.

If a horse shows up to Baffert with no talent, or demonstrates they are not going to be a top class horse, they dont stay in that barn trying to find races they fit.

If you send horses to Baffert you usually already have a good idea they can run. Justify for example started in Ky and then was sent to Baffert. Interestingly enough it was the minor success he had with American Anthem (is that horse alive) that got him Justify.

[f2tornado]

American Anthem (is that horse alive) that got him Justify.

Yes. He's been working sharply at SA the past couple months.

[Rex Phinney]

Baffert probably turns away more horses than any other trainer. I’ve even seen countless examples of horses he has been training and if it’s not looking promising he will basically send the horse and owner packing.

[SecretAgentMan]

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who like Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes six times, correctly predicted that American Pharoah would sweep the 2015 Triple Crown even before the Bob Baffert trainee ran in the Kentucky Derby.

The Hall of Fame trainer, who is scheduled to run Calumet Farm's Bravazo and Robert Baker and William Mack's Sporting Chance in the May 19 Preakness at Pimlico, said he thinks Justify will do the same.

[jocko699]

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who like Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes six times, correctly predicted that American Pharoah would sweep the 2015 Triple Crown even before the Bob Baffert trainee ran in the Kentucky Derby.

The Hall of Fame trainer, who is scheduled to run Calumet Farm's Bravazo and Robert Baker and William Mack's Sporting Chance in the May 19 Preakness at Pimlico, said he thinks Justify will do the same.

Here is some more from Lukas:

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Its_Preakness_2018_favorite_Justifys_Triple_Crown_ to_lose

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/status/995997201787695104