TimeformUS Pace/Speed Figures from Derby day

[cj]

https://image.ibb.co/e2u7g7/Saturday.png

Derby Field

https://image.ibb.co/drUeuS/Derby.png

[jay68802]

Pretty strong finish for Justify considering the pace.

[storyline]

https://image.ibb.co/e2u7g7/Saturday.png

Derby Field

https://image.ibb.co/drUeuS/Derby.png



Pretty much the best horse we've seen in the Derby in decades / lifetime

[lured]

Pretty strong finish for Justify considering the pace.

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

[Spalding No!]

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

I think American Pharoah's Preakness, with a last minute deluge of rain during the post parade, unfolded in a similar fashion--although AP had no pace rival to contend with.

[Augenj]

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.
It looks pretty typical to me for a sloppy track. Front runners stay in front and closers never close. This was just an exaggerated example of that observation, maybe due to the "unique" Churchill dirt surface.

[lured]

I think American Pharoah's Preakness, with a last minute deluge of rain during the post parade, unfolded in a similar fashion--although AP had no pace rival to contend with.

Thanks. You're right. I guess I am less surprised that it would happen in Preakness though. Shorter field and a lot of the best triple crown racers drop out if they don't get the Derby. This Derby was pushed to us that it was a great field. I have to question that now. Very few made moves in this race and you would think that with the leader and eventual winner running at such a snails pace for the last 1/2 mile, many could and would.

[jocko699]

Thanks. You're right. I guess I am less surprised that it would happen in Preakness though. Shorter field and a lot of the best triple crown racers drop out if they don't get the Derby. This Derby was pushed to us that it was a great field. I have to question that now. Very few made moves in this race and you would think that with the leader and eventual winner running at such a snails pace for the last 1/2 mile, many could and would.

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

[GMB@BP]

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

[lured]

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I hope so. It just seems odd that all but a couple of them(Audible and Instilled Regard) couldn't hardly close the gap on a 53 second final half mile. The whole point of tactfully staying off the pace is to save some gas to make to later moves. When the leader gives 1 minute and 18 seconds to do that in the final 3/4 mile, I would think it shouldn't be that difficult to do so. Not saying they would've or should've over taken him, but they should've forced him to run a lot faster.

[JustRalph]

As soon as I saw the final time I was running the numbers and trying to figure out how slow they must have gone the last half

Shocked nobody closed ground.

Audible got blocked badly mid stretch, but as soon as he hit the rail he stopped gaining ground.

[GMB@BP]

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

[storyline]

As soon as I saw the final time I was running the numbers and trying to figure out how slow they must have gone the last half

Shocked nobody closed ground.

Audible got blocked badly mid stretch, but as soon as he hit the rail he stopped gaining ground.


I think the track was almost 2.5 seconds slow

[jocko699]

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

I think Audible is the real deal considering all. I talked to a friend of mine about Instilled Regard and bet him but this was the race to ever cash on him.

Justify shocked me, although I have been high on him all along yet cautious, I am STUNNED by this race. He is the real deal!!!!

[lured]

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

I'm thinking that maybe it had something to do with the mess early on that probably took some of the potential closers out of the race. Magnum Moon, Solomini Mendelssohn and Instilled Regard were all in the immediate area of the multi-bumps. (anyone know which caused it?). Instilled Regard somehow managed to keep himself in the race.

[Augenj]

I'm thinking that maybe it had something to do with the mess early on that probably took some of the potential closers out of the race. Magnum Moon, Solomini Mendelssohn and Instilled Regard were all in the immediate area of the multi-bumps. (anyone know which caused it?). Instilled Regard somehow managed to keep himself in the race.
I was watching Magnum Moon all the way and the jock sent him straight inside and crashed into Mendelssohn which sent Magnum Moon sideways, Lots of checking after that for Magnum Moon. A bad ride and a rough trip.

[PICSIX]

https://image.ibb.co/e2u7g7/Saturday.png

Derby Field

https://image.ibb.co/drUeuS/Derby.png

CJ,

Could you post the last 5 Derby's in this format for comparison? Just the winner.

Thanks,

Mike

[pandy]

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

It did seem odd, but sometimes you just can't figure these sloppy, sealed tracks, especially with a twenty horse field. I did think that besides Justify, Audible ran a big race, he did not have a smooth trip and he battled gamely to the wire.

[elysiantraveller]

I have a theory that in these two turn slop races the track is almost impossible to close into because it's been sealed and already trampled by 20 runners going over it

The second they hit the stretch Good Magics bid stopped and it was all pretty evenly ran from then on. Audible made up some ground on the rail but it gets less traffic at the start.

[cj]

CJ,

Could you post the last 5 Derby's in this format for comparison? Just the winner.

Thanks,

Mike

Like, the full field of Derby finishers? Just want to be sure I understand before I post.

[GMB@BP]

I am surprised the Pace Adjusted performance figure for the winner and Good Magic is not a bit more than a 2pnt adjustment given the pace was that fast.

Its probably always been like that at 10F but never really noticed it before.

[cj]

I am surprised the Pace Adjusted performance figure for the winner and Good Magic is not a bit more than a 2pnt adjustment given the pace was that fast.

Its probably always been like that at 10F but never really noticed it before.

Yeah, the problem is if you treat it like shorter races it rewards horses that can't rate much too often. The longer the race, the less the reward for going too fast early. I studied the data quite a bit and it was the way to go.

[GMB@BP]

Yeah, the problem is if you treat it like shorter races it rewards horses that can't rate much too often. The longer the race, the less the reward for going too fast early. I studied the data quite a bit and it was the way to go.

thats why your numbers are the best!

[lured]

I have a theory that in these two turn slop races the track is almost impossible to close into because it's been sealed and already trampled by 20 runners going over it

The second they hit the stretch Good Magics bid stopped and it was all pretty evenly ran from then on. Audible made up some ground on the rail but it gets less traffic at the start.

That's a great theory. And the further back they are on the final 1/4 it's like that part of the track has been trampled on twice before they get to it.

[PICSIX]

Like, the full field of Derby finishers? Just want to be sure I understand before I post.

No, just the winner at the points of call and finish.

Thanks

[cj]

No, just the winner at the points of call and finish.

Thanks

I can do that. Give me a few...

[cj]

Here you go. These are the winners and the figures are for the leader at each point of call.

https://image.ibb.co/nyZbWJ/Derby_Winners.png

[GMB@BP]

Animal Kingdom's and Mine That Bird's races look more impressive compared to many other races on that chart, pace and running style wise.

[PICSIX]

Here you go. These are the winners and the figures are for the leader at each point of call.

https://image.ibb.co/nyZbWJ/Derby_Winners.png

Thanks:ThmbUp:

[Tread]

It looks pretty typical to me for a sloppy track. Front runners stay in front and closers never close. This was just an exaggerated example of that observation, maybe due to the "unique" Churchill dirt surface.

There have been accusations of a speed bias all over the internet, and you people are not reading the charts.

8 of the top 10 in the Derby were in the bottom 10 at both the 1/2 and 3/4, not even remotely an example of "closers never close". If you look at the races directly before and after the Derby, the horses who were 1-2-3 at the half mile did not finish in the exacta, several horses moved up their placings from the back at the mid point of the race.

People are so conditioned to say "sloppy tracks favor speed" that they get lazy and don't actually look at the chart data and race replays. Abosolutely impossible to argue a speed bias at the time of the Derby when you take these surrounding facts into play. Justify was able to stay out in front over a track that was incredibly tiring, and if anything, was playing favorably to closers.

[Augenj]

There have been accusations of a speed bias all over the internet, and you people are not reading the charts.

8 of the top 10 in the Derby were in the bottom 10 at both the 1/2 and 3/4, not even remotely an example of "closers never close". If you look at the races directly before and after the Derby, the horses who were 1-2-3 at the half mile did not finish in the exacta, several horses moved up their placings from the back at the mid point of the race.

People are so conditioned to say "sloppy tracks favor speed" that they get lazy and don't actually look at the chart data and race replays. Abosolutely impossible to argue a speed bias at the time of the Derby when you take these surrounding facts into play. Justify was able to stay out in front over a track that was incredibly tiring, and if anything, was playing favorably to closers.
You are SO right. I guess the decades of me watching sloppy track races all over the country gave me the wrong impression. I'm glad you straightened me out. ;)

[cj]

You are SO right. I guess the decades of me watching sloppy track races all over the country gave me the wrong impression. I'm glad you straightened me out. ;)

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.

[GMB@BP]

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.

I am not using any figures or trips from the derby

the best horse going in won, and the second best and third best (debatable) ran that way.

There is nothing to be learned from that race that using figures from the preps dont already tell me.

[Augenj]

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.
Great observations as usual, CJ. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

I am not using any figures or trips from the derby

the best horse going in won, and the second best and third best (debatable) ran that way.

There is nothing to be learned from that race that using figures from the preps dont already tell me.

I agree. The Derby is usually a throw out race for most horses anyway, but never more so than this year.

[Inner Dirt]

I hope so. It just seems odd that all but a couple of them(Audible and Instilled Regard) couldn't hardly close the gap on a 53 second final half mile. The whole point of tactfully staying off the pace is to save some gas to make to later moves. When the leader gives 1 minute and 18 seconds to do that in the final 3/4 mile, I would think it shouldn't be that difficult to do so. Not saying they would've or should've over taken him, but they should've forced him to run a lot faster.

I would venture the distance was too much for the most of the whole field, they all staggered home whether they exerted themselves early or not. The Belmont should be interesting.

[Tread]

Great observations as usual, CJ. :ThmbUp:

Awesome.

I tell you the track wasn't speed favoring at all and get a sarcastic remark.

CJ tells you the track wasn't speed favoring at all and he gets

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::Thm bUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbU p::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

But I will thank CJ for confirming my point, people who think all sloppy tracks favor front-running speed are being lazy. The truth is in the charts. A sloppy track based on 3 inches of constant rain the entire day is going to be different than most other sloppy tracks. As the charts show.

[Augenj]

Awesome.
people who think all sloppy tracks favor front-running speed are being lazy
Maybe I should have said that sloppy tracks "generally" favor speed and of course that would still be way out of line in your world, eh? Maybe after years and years of watching races on sloppy tracks and betting on speed and winning overall, I should pack it in and not bet anymore?

[Tom]

Tread......or RE-Tread?