can we bury the phony small sample Derby "statistics" now?

[dilanesp]

Thank you.

[Rex Phinney]

He was 5/2 and sixth straight favorite.

All this does it give reason for every dirt trainer to not race their horses and send them to the front all the time every time.

In other words it changes nothing.

[dilanesp]

He was 5/2 and sixth straight favorite.

All this does it give reason for every dirt trainer to not race their horses and send them to the front all the time every time.

In other words it changes nothing.

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

[Hanger]

Do we see less Pedigree'd 2 year olds in the Breeders Cup now? Lots of conversations considering ruining another myth here.

[depalma113]

What happened to the closers?

[clocker7]

What happened to the closers?

We've bred a generation of horses with tactical speed and just enough bottom to persevere at 10f.

It's not like there have been a lot of surprises lately.

[Rex Phinney]

What happened to the closers?

Horses don’t go forward any more. Only backward.

[GMB@BP]

Storm Cat line...dead now

Apollo...dead now

socal dirt horses are slow...probably dead, until LoneF shows up

[porchy44]

theory of black swan events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

[zico20]

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

You can keep the UAE factor sample. That one will be going on for the next hundred years as long as they keep bringing them over the week of the race. I toss any horse from the UAE without even looking at the PPs. It is much easier to handicap 19 than 20. :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You can keep the UAE factor sample. That one will be going on for the next hundred years as long as they keep bringing them over the week of the race. I toss any horse from the UAE without even looking at the PPs. It is much easier to handicap 19 than 20. :D

Yep.

This was "the" horse to break that curse. Regal breeding that sold for a $3 million tag that had two G1 wins. He broke the UAE track record by a second and a half, and blasted that field by 18+ lengths.

He finished DFL today after getting bumped at the start and eventually being eased.

Until they learn their lesson and bring their horse over here and have them run in at least 1 U.S. prep race, there is absolutely no reason to believe these horses won't continue finishing well up the track.

Back to back completely horrific performances by Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn highlight the horrific Euro record in this race.

[f2tornado]

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

[GMB@BP]

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

and they were all pretty much bet...was it the breeding or the talent?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

We've bred a generation of horses with tactical speed and just enough bottom to persevere at 10f.

It's not like there have been a lot of surprises lately.

Excellent point

[dilanesp]

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.

How about the winner?

[SecretAgentMan]

For what it's worth, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place horses were all Buckpasser-x.



So if you keyed Justify on top of these Buckpasser horses, you hit the trifecta & superfecta.........nice score!

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice job Dilanesp....I thought I was gonna get you in the lane :)
Nice race; I thought my guy Good Magic ran as good as he could, not enough to beat Justify though

[Parkview_Pirate]

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

I agree that the Apollo curse was not useful as a handicapping factor. I have yet to see any stats related to how many starters in the Derby since 1882 didn't race as 2YOs, but I do know it's a relatively small number - which results in the analysis being skewed.

On the other hand, the Derby being what it is, a one time event at the distance for most of the runners, there's some motivation to perform a bit of "out of the box" handicapping, versus a "normal" approach. I tossed Mendelssohn based on Euros struggling in the race, but that curse too may come to end some day - though with any streak, you can win many times and lose only once.

Where I'd disagree with you is actually betting much on Justify. A $7.80 winner in a 20 horse field is an underlay by most measurements - from the chart we have "stern left-handed drive" described as his run in the lane, so it sounds like he was used hard. He had the speed and PPs to suggest he'd make his own luck and have a good trip and carry it a long ways, but we've seen many good horses spit the bit that last furlong.

If Justify wins the Preakness and goes on to the Belmont, I'll be knocking over some 7-11s to get the scratch to bet against him...

[FakeNameChanged]

So was Justify's derby trip similar to Always Dreaming last year? Mike Smith and Johnny V. were both spotless after the race, as were their mounts. No mud in sight. Mike gunned him right out of the gate, which was the winning move imo. Will Baffert and Mike try to do that again in the shorter Preakness?

[acorn54]

explanation for favorites winning the derby nowadays. good information is more widely available these days. people just don't bet with arcane reasons anymore in this game.

[dilanesp]

I agree that the Apollo curse was not useful as a handicapping factor. I have yet to see any stats related to how many starters in the Derby since 1882 didn't race as 2YOs, but I do know it's a relatively small number - which results in the analysis being skewed.

On the other hand, the Derby being what it is, a one time event at the distance for most of the runners, there's some motivation to perform a bit of "out of the box" handicapping, versus a "normal" approach. I tossed Mendelssohn based on Euros struggling in the race, but that curse too may come to end some day - though with any streak, you can win many times and lose only once.

Where I'd disagree with you is actually betting much on Justify. A $7.80 winner in a 20 horse field is an underlay by most measurements - from the chart we have "stern left-handed drive" described as his run in the lane, so it sounds like he was used hard. He had the speed and PPs to suggest he'd make his own luck and have a good trip and carry it a long ways, but we've seen many good horses spit the bit that last furlong.

If Justify wins the Preakness and goes on to the Belmont, I'll be knocking over some 7-11s to get the scratch to bet against him...

I think the Dubai angle is fine because it's not Derby specific- in general we should and do downgrade horses who have shipped a very long distance.

[Afleet]

Yep.

This was "the" horse to break that curse. Regal breeding that sold for a $3 million tag that had two G1 wins. He broke the UAE track record by a second and a half, and blasted that field by 18+ lengths.

He finished DFL today after getting bumped at the start and eventually being eased.

Until they learn their lesson and bring their horse over here and have them run in at least 1 U.S. prep race, there is absolutely no reason to believe these horses won't continue finishing well up the track.

Back to back completely horrific performances by Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn highlight the horrific Euro record in this race.

I still would rather own Thunder Snow than Always Dreaming

[burnsy]

I remember when favorites couldn't win the Derby (1980-1998) too.

You may not like the incentives this creates. I don't necessarily like them either.

But as a handicapping factor? Just handicap the race. Forget about the small sample "stats".

I agree with all of this 100%...........those were the days. It was hard to hit during that time but if you did the money was huge.

I don't like "incentives" this new way creates either. But that's here nor there.


And the last statement is the absolute truth. That curse was a joke. These horses are trying something for the first time.........its logic that Justify did something that's hard to do. He won the Derby off of 3 starts, which i was kind of against, screw the so called "curse" BS, he's just good enough where most would of not been ready. I'm glad people look at "stats". The good prices come when a horse runs against the grain of the stats and out runs its odds. That's what handicapping is about IMO. People come on here and spout stats and numbers..........then they come up with mostly chalk. I'm a numbers cruncher but even i realize that those things only get you so far.

The only knock i had on Justify was his record compared to the price. Its not like i hate 5-2/3-1, but in the derby, you don't expect that every year, that's become a good bet. It has changed. This horse winning like this has been coming for years. It was just a matter of time with the new training methods, the "curse" was bull crap.

[papillon]

Yep.

This was "the" horse to break that curse. Regal breeding that sold for a $3 million tag that had two G1 wins. He broke the UAE track record by a second and a half, and blasted that field by 18+ lengths.

He finished DFL today after getting bumped at the start and eventually being eased.

Until they learn their lesson and bring their horse over here and have them run in at least 1 U.S. prep race, there is absolutely no reason to believe these horses won't continue finishing well up the track.

Back to back completely horrific performances by Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn highlight the horrific Euro record in this race.

Well, then the Wood and LA Derby will have to go too. Far fewer horses from the UAE run in this race to even be able to do poorly than do the Wood and the LA Derby, and the Ark derby should have been excluded this year (perhaps a rule that if the field cannot pass the winner who drifts out to the parking lot, they don't belong in the derby), the BCJ has had a poor record too, only 2 winners have ever won the KY derby, and the also rans have not faired much better, so it's out too. We'll give the Ark 50 points, a Baffert shows up every few years.

My home derby, the FL Derby, and the SA Derby, I should be the only 100 pointers. The Wood and the LA Derby should be 10, they are beginning to rival the Lexington. The Blue Grass winner did well this year but the runner up finished 13th, so it should only have 10 as well, and it usually is a wash anyway. Also rans should get no more than 10 in 100 pointers, and none in 10 pointers.

The SA Derby may even begin to get full fields like the the FL, and we can ditch the auxiliary gate, and have cleaner run derbies. The favorites will continue to win, which was ensured anyway when the Spanish Chestnuts and Hard Spuns were excluded. Nobody would be able to lose money on Bellamy Roads.

No more fillies. No more dogged Hard Spun front runners. Just a never ending stream of 2:03s and 2:04s.

Nobody outside of horse racing cares about the race anyway, it's just Tara Lipnski and Johnny Wier and ugly clothes and stupid non-celebrities like Kid Rock.

Mendelssohn is certainly a fraud. His pedigree is clearly turf--Beholder being the American Winx. His body slam out of the gate was nothing that a real horse like Shared Belief on a fast track and lovely weather could brush off. The inch of mud lodged in each blinker, psshaw. Magnum Moon bouncing off of him repeatedly, hot house flower.

His loss may have just cost Coolmore $20 million. At least they will be motivated to run in the Pegasus and WC next year to try to recoup it. And thankfully for them fraudulent UAE Derby winners have a tendency to win the WC. He fared only slightly worse than two Pletchers, one of whom was instrumental in his losing all chance, and an Assmussen. Johnny V could do little better than Ryan Moore. It is not at all clear that an American trainer, jockey, and prep race would have made a bit of difference

[GMB@BP]

Usually the SA gets the smaller field when there is a dominant or 2 dominant type horses, it gets a full field when wide open.

I can remember years like last year, and when Tiago won, when going it was absolutely no stand out.

When there are some really good ones already identified you see horses ship out, and why not, they usually have good success.

Socal dirt horses, mostly because of Baffert, but not entirely, just outperform expectations when they ship.

That being said I am way against Faypian today at Belmont.

[jocko699]

Usually the SA gets the smaller field when there is a dominant or 2 dominant type horses, it gets a full field when wide open.

I can remember years like last year, and when Tiago won, when going it was absolutely no stand out.

When there are some really good ones already identified you see horses ship out, and why not, they usually have good success.

Socal dirt horses, mostly because of Baffert, but not entirely, just outperform expectations when they ship.

That being said I am way against Faypian today at Belmont.

Yeah baby, Pacific Wind in the Ruffian.

[lured]

explanation for favorites winning the derby nowadays. good information is more widely available these days. people just don't bet with arcane reasons anymore in this game.

I don't buy that, not all of it anyway. I don't think it's a coincidence that this streak started when they changed the rules to a point system to qualify.

My theory is before this, horses could be strategically raced to get their earnings up without showing what they are capable of. The goal was to bring them up slowly to the first Saturday in May and having them peak on that day. Now, to even qualify, they have to show what they got way before hand.

Not for sure, but guessing that Charismatic, Giacomo and Mine that Bird type winners don't even make the derby under the new point system not to mention a lot of the runners that placed and showed to make the payouts huge.

[GMB@BP]

Yeah baby, Pacific Wind in the Ruffian.

yea, this horse was just way avg in socal and now winning grade 2 races, not sure it was even that great of a trip.

[jocko699]

yea, this horse was just way avg in socal and now winning grade 2 races, not sure it was even that great of a trip.

She just wanted to race on the dirt. Throw out her race at the Bullring and she's now undefeated on the dirt.

[Spalding No!]

Yeah baby, Pacific Wind in the Ruffian.
Coincidentally, started her career in CA and is unbeaten in 2 starts since moving back east.

[jay68802]

explanation for favorites winning the derby nowadays. good information is more widely available these days. people just don't bet with arcane reasons anymore in this game.

A lot of this has to do with we are now seeing what these horses can do at 1 1/8 instead of trying to project what they can do from sprints or mile races. Give good information to the public and that's what happens.

[thaskalos]

explanation for favorites winning the derby nowadays. good information is more widely available these days. people just don't bet with arcane reasons anymore in this game.

The betting action on My Boy Jack seems to suggest otherwise.

[thaskalos]

A lot of this has to do with we are now seeing what these horses can do at 1 1/8 instead of trying to project what they can do from sprints or mile races. Give good information to the public and that's what happens.

I think it's just the law of probability playing itself out. The favorites went through a long dry-spell...and now things are getting back to "normal".

[dilanesp]

I think it's just the law of probability playing itself out. The favorites went through a long dry-spell...and now things are getting back to "normal".

Yep.

The Derby is a tiny sample. All of these stats asre most likely meaningless.

[acorn54]

fact. from 1988 to 1993 one only had to exceed an r-squared test of .1237, today it is > .17 to show a positive expectancy. this is according to cx wong, a member of benter's team.